This document summarizes the responses from 33 AI researchers about the possibility of developing conscious machines. The researchers provided estimates for when such machines might be developed. The most common responses were 2036-2060 (24.24% of researchers) and no timeframe given (18.18%). The document displays quotes from researchers in each estimated timeframe category and links to related podcast interviews. It concludes by providing a link to access the full dataset.

1. TECHEMERGENCE CONSENSUS:
CONSCIOUS MACHINES
Time Scale Esitmates from 33 AI Researchers
The data from this consensus was collected between October and December of 2015

2. In this TechEmergence Consensus, we contacted a
total of 33 artificial intelligence researchers (all
except one hold a PhD) and asked them about the
possibility of machines obtaining human-like
conscious awareness.
This slide deck displays the major trends of
responses as well as some of the most poignant
quotes from the recognized experts we spoke with.

3. Access to the complete data set and all quotes
and answers from all the researchers that we
connected with for our AI Conciousness
Consensus as well as our 20 year and 100 year
AI Risk Consensus is available for free down-
load as a spreadsheet or Google Sheet in the
link below:
>> CLICK HERE

4. 0 2 4 6 8 10
© TechEmergence Consensus October-December 2015
In what timeframe would you give suspect with 90% certainty
that “conscious” machines might be developed?
24.24%
18.18%
15.15%
12.12%
12.12%
6.06%
6.06%
2036 – 2060
[No Timeframe Given]
2021 - 2035
2061 - 2100
Before 2021
2101 - 2200
Before 3000
NO. OF RESPONSES
RESPONSETYPE&OVERALLPERCENTAGE
3.03% Likely Never

5. We’ve selected one or two quotes from each of
the major response categories. Beneath each
quote is a link (if available) of our complete
interview with this guest on the TechEmergence
Podcast.
* These consensus answers were recorded seperately from our podcasts interviews, but most podcasts are focused on
related topics around the ethical implications of emerging technologies.

6. 2036 - 2060
I think that as brain-computer interfacing, neuroscience and AGI
develop, we will gradually gain a better understanding of
consciousness — but this may require an expansion of the
scientific methodology itself. I wrote a blog post titled “Second
Person Science” considering this issue.
- Dr. Ben Goertzel
PhD in Mathematics | Chief Scientist of Hanson Robotics
>> CLICK HERE
Listen to or read our full interview with Dr. Ben Goertzel at techemergence.com:

7. 2036 - 2060
I think that the issue of machine consciousness (and consciousness
in general) can be resolved empirically, but that it has not been
to date. That said, I see no scientific reason why artificial systems
could not be conscious, if sufficiently complex and appropriately
organized.
- Dr. Bruce Maclennan
PhD in Computer Science, Purdue | Associate Professor Dept. of Electrical Engineering
& Computer Science University of Tennessee
>> CLICK HERE
Listen to or read our full interview with Dr. Bruce Maclennanat techemergence.com:

8. NO TIMEFRAME GIVEN
Consciousness is not a scientific concept; it can’t be detected or
tested for in any way. It also doesn’t do anything so no reason exists
to invest in research developing artificial consciousness.
- Dr. Roman Yampolskiy
PhD Computer Science, University of Buffalo | Associate Professor Computer Scientist at Speed School
of Engineering, the University of Louisville
>> CLICK HERE
Listen to or read our full interview with Dr. Roman Yampolskiy techemergence.com:

9. NO TIMEFRAME GIVEN
Human consciousness has many aspects ranging from having a
self model, to having subjective experiences or “qualia”, to having
a sense of being a unitary being with continuity through time. We
don’t yet understand the nature of these in us, so I think it’s too
early to predict whether machines will have them.
- Dr. Steve Omohundro
PhD in Mathematical Physics | Author, Scientist, Physicist, Entrepreneur
>> CLICK HERE
Listen to our full interview with Dr. Steve Omohundro at techemergence.com:

10. 2021 - 2035
Machines will be able to have something similar to what we call
consciousness in the next 10-20 years, but we will not need that to
achieve machines with narrow (task-specific) super-human capa-
bilities. This is achieved already today and this is the real use of AI
for our society.
- Dr. Massimiliano Versace
PhD in Cognitive and Neural Systems, Boston University | Co-founder and CEO
of Neurala Inc
>> CLICK HERE
Read or listen to our full interview with Dr. Massimilliano Versace at techemergence.com:

11. 2061 - 2100
We already have conscious machines. Their degree of
consciousness will evolve and become greater and greater as we
progress in the technology and knowledge that we put into them.
For example, autonomous cars will be very self conscious.
- Dr. Eyal Amir
Chief Executive Officer and Chief Data Scientist at Parknav Technologies
>> CLICK HERE
Read or listen to our full interview with Dr. Eyal Amir at techemergence.com:

12. BEFORE 2021
Both consciousness and sentience have already been implemented
within machines beginning with the reductions to practice behind
US Patent 5,659,666, “Device for the Autonomous Generation of
Useful Information.”
- Dr. Stephen Thaler
PhD Physics, University of Missouri-Columbia | Founder and Board Chairman at Imagitron, LLC
>> CLICK HERE
Listen to or read our full interview with Dr. Stephen Thaler at techemergence.com:

13. 2101 - 2200
Machines can be conscious, because we humans are conscious,
and we ARE machines. Complex squishy machines, but machines
nonetheless.
- Dr. Robin D Hanson
PhD in Social Sciences, CalTech | Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University
Chief Scientist at Consensus Point

14. BEFORE 3000
Yes, it’s possible. Humans are made from stuff that obeys the laws of
physics - they constitute an existance proof. The difficulty is just that of
working out how the machine (taken in a very wide sense) works and
how to build an equivalent.
- Dr. Sean Holden
PhD in Engineering, Corpus Christi | Senior Lecturer in Machine Learning at Cambridge University

15. LIKELY NEVER
Are dogs conscious? It seems so, but we really don’t know what that
question means. We assume conscious awareness in people, but not
in machines. We are “fleshists.” There is no way to build something
when we don’t really know what it is.
- Dr. Roger Schank
Professor Emeritus at Northwestern University | Founder of Socratic Arts and XTOL
>> CLICK HERE
Listen to our full interview with Dr. Roger Schank at techemergence.com:

16. If you’ve enjoyed this presentation and you’d like
to see the full set of 33 AI researcher responses
from our AI Conciousness Consensus as well as
our 20 year and 100 year AI Risk Consensus, the
entire dataset is made freely availble in a simple
spreadsheet accessible via the form below:
>> CLICK HERE

17. Thanks for viewing our presentation. If you’d like
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research trends and insights in the field of
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