Thinking About The Future

Thinking about the Future THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE. The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds. As we have all learned from recent experience, the future is not a simple extrapolation of linear, single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be factored into enterprise strategy development, threat assessment and risk management frameworks and incorporated into enterprise decision-making structures and processes.

Abiliti – contact details Abilitiis a consortiumofSAP I/S Utilities, I/S Oil & GasandEnergy StrategyConsulting, Strategic Foresight & Future Managementconsultants Graham HarrisSAP Agile Academy Director @ Abiliti Email: Abiliti@Originautomation.com(Office) Telephone: +44 (0)1527 591020(Office) Nigel Tebbutt 奈杰尔泰巴德 Future Business Models & Emerging Technologies @ Abiliti Telephone: +44 (0) 7832 182595 (Mobile) +44 (0) 121 342 3998 (Office) Email: Nigel-Tebbutt@hotmail.com(Private) Abiliti::Strategic Enterprise Management (SEM) Framework ©

Thinking about the Future THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE - The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds. As we have all learned from recent experience, the future is not a simple extrapolation of linear, single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be factored into enterprise strategy development, threat assessment and risk management frameworks and incorporated into enterprise decision-making structures and processes. Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a narrow perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A concentration of focus may risk overlooking those Weak Signals indicating potential issues and events, agents and catalysts of change. These Weak Signals – along with their resultant Wild Cards, Black Swan Events and global transformations - are even now taking shape at the very periphery of corporate awareness, perception and vision – or even just beyond These agents of change may precipitate global impact-level events which either threaten the very survival of the organisation - or present novel and unexpected opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to include weak signals and peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process may therefore be critical in contributing towards the organisation's continued growth, success, well being and survival.

Thinking about the Future Framework Professors Peter Bishop and Andy Hines at the University of Texas Futures Studies School at the Houston Clear Lake site have developed a definitive Strategic Management Framework – Thinking About the Future

Thinking about the Future Professors Peter Bishop and Andy Hines at the University of Texas Futures Studies School at the Houston Clear Lake site have developed a definitive Strategic Foresight Framework -Thinking About the Future FRAMING AND SCOPING • This important first step enables organizations to define the purpose. focus, scope and boundaries of the Political, Legal, Economic, Cultural, Business and Technology problem / opportunity domains requiring resolution. Taking time at the outset of a project, the Strategic Foresight Team defines the Futures Study domain, outlines the required outcomes, goals and objectives and determines how best to achieve them. • Strategy Study Definition – Problem / Opportunity Domains: - Definition - Focus, Scope, Purpose and Boundaries Approach - What – How – Why – Who – When – Where? Justification - Cost, Duration and Resources v. Future Benefits and Cash Flows

Thinking about the Future ENGAGING • This second phase is about stakeholder management - developing action agendas for mobilising stakeholders and opening communications channels, soliciting collaborative participation and input. This may involve staging a wide range of Stakeholder Events , organising Strategy Communications, Target-setting and Action Planning, establishing mechanisms for reporting actual achievement against targets – in order that the Strategic Foresight Team engage a wide range of stakeholders, presents a future-oriented, customer-focussed approach and enables the efficient delivery of Strategy Study artefacts & benefits in planned / managed work streams. • Strategy Study Mobilisation – Stakeholder Engagement: - Communication Strategy Benefits Realisation Strategy Strategy Study Programme Plan Stakeholder, SME and TDA Strategy Study Launch Events

Thinking about the Future RESEARCH – HORIZON SCANNING, MONITORING AND TRACKING: • Once the Strategic Foresight Team is clear about the engagement boundaries, purpose, problem / opportunity domains and scope of a Strategy Study - they can begin to scan both internal and external environments for all relevant input content – information and data describing extrapolations, patterns and trends – or indicating global transformations, emerging and developing factors and catalysts of change – and to search for, seek out and identify any Weak Signals indicating the potential for disruptive Wild Card or Black Swan events. • Strategy Investigation – Content Capture: - Factors and Catalysts of Change Extrapolations, Patterns and Trends Internal and External Content, Information and Data Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems amd Infrastructure

Thinking about the Future STRATEGY DISCOVERY – STAKEHOLDER EVENTS & STRATEGY THEMES • Here we begin to identify and extract useful information from the mass of Research Content that we have collected. Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value Propositions begin to emerge from Data Set “mashing”, Data Mining and Analytics against the massed Research Data – and all supplemented via the very human process of Cognitive Filtering and Intuitive Assimilation of selected information - through Discovery Workshops, Strategy Theme Forums, Value Chain Seminars, Special Interest Group Events and one-to-one Key Stakeholder Interviews. • Strategy Discovery – Content Analysis: - Data Set “mashing”, Data Mining and Analytics Stakeholder, SME and TDA Strategy Discovery Events Discovered Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value Propositions

Thinking about the Future STRATEGIC RISK MANAGEMENT • The underlying premise of Strategic Risk Management is that every enterprise exists to provide value for its stakeholders. All entities face uncertainty and the possibility of chaos and disruption. Risk Management is the evaluation of uncertainty. The challenge is to determine how much risk we are able to accept as we strive to grow stakeholder value. Uncertainty presents both opportunity and risk with the possibility of either erosion or enhancement of value. Strategic Foresight enables stakeholders to deal effectively with uncertainty and associated risk and opportunity - thus enhancing the capability of the Enterprise to build long-term value. • Risk Management – Value Chain Building: - Risk Research and Identification Uncertainty, Chaos and Disruption Identified Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value Propositions

Strategic Risk Management Systemic Risk(external threats) Political Risk – Political Science, Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight Economic Risk – Fiscal Policy, Economic Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting Wild Card Events – Horizon Scanning, Tracking and Monitoring – Weak Signals Black Swan Events – Scenario Planning & Impact Analysis – Future Management Market Risk(macro-economic threats) Equity Risk – Traded Instrument Product Analysis and Financial Management Currency Risk – FX Curves and Forecasting Commodity Risk – Price Curves and Forecasting Interest Rate Risk – Interest Rate Curves and Forecasting Trade Risk(micro-economic threats) Credit Risk – Debtor Analysis and Management Liquidity Risk – Solvency Analysis and Management Insurance Risk – Underwriting Due Diligence and Compliance Counter-Party Risk – Counter-Party Analysis and Management

Strategic Risk Management Operational Risk(internal threats) Legal Risk – Contractual Due Diligence and Compliance Statutory Risk – Legislative Due Diligence and Compliance Regulatory Risk – Regulatory Due Diligence and Compliance Competitor Risk – Competitor Analysis, Defection Detection / Churn Management Reputational Risk – Internet Content Scanning, Intervention / Threat Management Corporate Responsibility – Enterprise Governance, Reporting and Controls Digital Communications and Technology Risk Security Risk– Security Principles, Policies and Architecture Process Risk– Business Strategy and Architecture Information Risk– Information Strategy and Architecture Technology Risk– Technology Strategy and Architecture Stakeholder Risk – Benefits Realisation Strategy and Communications Management Vendor / 3rd Party Risk – Strategic Vendor Analysis and Supply Chain Management

Thinking about the Future THREAT ANALYSIS • In most organizations, many stakeholders, if unchallenged, tend to believe that threat scenarios - as discovered in various SWOT / PEST Analyses - are going to play out pretty much the same way as they have always done so in the past. When the Strategic Foresight Team probes an organization’s view of the future, they usually discover an array of unexamined, unexplained assumptions tending to either maintain the current status quo – or converging around discrete clusters of small, linear, incremental future changes • Threat Analysis – Value Chain Analysis: - Threat Analysis, Assessment and Prioritisation Global Transformations, Factors and Catalysts of Change Analysed Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value Propositions

Thinking about the Future STRATEGIC FORESIGHT • The prime activity in the Strategic Foresight Process is, therefore, to challenge the status quo viewpoint and provoke the organisation into thinking seriously about the possibility that things may not continue as they always have done - and in fact, rarely do so. Strategic Foresight processes should therefore include searching for and identifying any potential Weak Signals predicating future Wild Card and Black Swan events – in doing so, revealing previously hidden factors and catalysts of change – thus exposing a much wider range of challenges, issues, problems, threats, opportunities and risks than may previously have been considered. • Strategic Foresight– Value Chain Management: - Risk Planning, Mitigation and Management Weak Signals, Wild Cards and Black Swan Events Managed Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes and Value Propositions

Thinking about the Future SCENARIO FORECASTING • Scenarios are stories about how the future may unfold – and how that future will impact on the way that we work and do business with our business partners, customers and suppliers. The Strategy Study considers a broad spectrum of possible scenarios as the only sure-fire way to develop robust strategic responses that will securely position the Strategic Foresight Programme to deal with every opportunity and threat domain that may transpire. The discovery of multiple scenarios and their associated opportunity / threat impact assessments, along with their probability of materialising – covers a wide range of possible and probable Opportunity / Threat situations – describing a rich variety of POSSIBLE, PROBABLE and ALTERNATIVE FUTURES• Scenario Forecasting– Impact Analysis: - Possible, Probable and Alternative Future Scenarios Clustered Assumptions, Critical Success Factors, Strategy Themes Possible Future Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services

Thinking about the Future STRATEGY VISIONING, FORMULATION AND DEVELOPMENT • After forecasting has laid out a range of potential Future Scenarios, visioning comes into play — generating a pragmatic view of our “preferred” Future Environment – thus starting to suggest stretch goals for moving towards our “ideal” Strategy Models - using the Strategic Principles and Policies to drive out the “desired” Vision, Missions, Outcomes, Goals and Objectives • Strategy Visioning, Formulation and Development: - Strategic Principles and Policies, Guidelines and Best Practices Strategy Models and desired Vision, Missions, Outcomes, Goals and Objectives Proposed Future Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services

Thinking about the Future PLANNING: = the bridge between the VISION and the ACTION – the “ACTION LINK” • Here, the Strategy team transforms the desired Vision, Missions, Outcomes, Goals and Objectives into the Strategic Master Plan, Enterprise Landscape Models, Strategic Roadmaps and Transition Plans for organisational readiness and mobilisation – maintaining Strategic Foresight mechanisms (Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking) to preserve the capability to quickly respond to fluctuations in internal and external environments • Strategy Enablement and Delivery Planning: - Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems and Infrastructure Planned Future Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services Strategic Master Plan, Enterprise Landscape Models, Roadmaps and Transition Plans

Thinking about the Future ACTING • This penultimate phase is about communicating results and developing action agendas for mobilising strategy delivery – thus launching Business Programmes that will drive forwards to the realisation of Strategic Master Plans and Future Business Models through Business Transformation, Enterprise Portfolio Management, Technology Refreshment and Service Management - via Cultural Change, innovative multi-tier and collaborative Business Operating Models, Emerging Technologies (Smart Devices, the Smart Grid and Cloud Services) Business Process Re-engineering and Process Outsource - Onshore / Offshore. • Strategy Enablement and Delivery Programmes: - Launched Future Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services Enterprise Portfolio Management - Technology Refreshment • System Management • Business Transformation – Organisational Re-structuring • Cultural Change • Business Process Management • Operating Models • Programme Planning & Contrl DCT Models - Demand / Supply Models • Shared Services.• Business Process Outsource • Emerging Technologies – Real-time Analytics • Smart Devices • Smart Grid • Mobile Computing • Cloud Services • Service Management - Service Access • Service Brokering • Service Provisioning • Service Delivery •

Thinking about the Future REVIEWING • In this final phase, we focus on Key Lessons Learned and maintaining the flow of useful information from the Strategic Foresight mechanisms and infrastructure – in order to support an ongoing lean and agile capability to continually and successfully respond to the volatile and dynamic internal and external environment - through Futures Studies, Strategy Reviews, Business Planning and long-range Forecasting. • We also prepare for the next round of the Strategy Cycle, beginning again with Phase 1 – Framing and Scoping. Strategy Review: - Reviewed Business Models and Value Propositions, Products and Services Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Systems, Infrastructure and Data Futures Studies, Strategy Reviews, Business Planning and long-range Forecasting Peter Bishop and Andy Hines – University of Houston

Outsights "21 Drivers for the 21st Century" War, terrorism and insecurity Layers of power Economic and financial stability BRICs and emerging powers • Brazil • Russia • India • China The Five Flows of Globalisation • Ideas • Goods • People • Capital • Services Intellectual Property and Knowledge Health, Wealth and Wellbeing Demographics, Ethnographics and Social Anthropology - Transhumanism Population Drift, Migration and Mobility Trust and Reputation Human Values and Beliefs History, Culture and Human Identity Consumerism and the rise of the Middle Classes Networks and Social Connectivity Space - the final frontier • The Cosmology Revolution Science and Technology Futures • The Nano Revolution • The Quantum Revolution • The Information Revolution • The Bio-Technology Revolution • The Energy Revolution • Oil Shale Kerogen • Tar Sands • Methane Hydrate • Nuclear Fusion • Science and Society - Social Impact of Technology Natural Resources – availability, scarcity and control Climate Change • Global Massive Change – the Climate Revolution Environmental Degradation & Mass Extinction Urbanisation

Outsights "21 Drivers for the 21st Century" Scenarios are specially constructed stories about the future - each one portraying a distinct, challenging and plausible world in which we might one day live and work - and for which we need to anticipate, plan and prepare. The Outsights Technique emphasises collaborative scenario building with internal clients and stakeholders. Embedding a new way of thinking about the future in the organisation is essential if full value is to be achieved – a fundamental principle of the “enabling, not dictating” approach The Outsights Technique promotes the development and execution of purposeful action plans so that the valuable learning experience from “outside-in” scenario planning enables building profitable business change. The Outsights Technique develops scenarios at the geographical level; at the business segment, unit and product level, and for specific threats, risks and challenges facing organisations. Scenarios add value to organisations in many ways: - future management, business strategy, managing change, managing risk and communicating strategy initiatives throughout an organisation.

FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE – THE ELTVILLE MODEL There are five viewpoints or lenses from which we may understand the future: - 1). GOAL ANALYSTS 2). EXTRAPOLATION and PATTERN ANALYSTS 3). EVOLUTIONISTS 4). STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS 5). RATIONAL FUTURISTS

FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE – THE ELTVILLE MODEL There are five viewpoints, lenses or paradigms – from which we may understand how the shape of the future might unfold: – GOAL ANALYSTS –Goal Analysts believe that the future will be governed by the orchestrated vision, beliefs, goals and objectives of various influential, well connected, integrated and highly coordinated individuals – and realised through the plans and actions of global and influential organizations, institutions and groups to which they belong. The shape of the future may thus be discerned by analysis and interpretation of the policies, behaviours and actions of such individuals and of those groups to which they subscribe and belong. The Preferred Future – Vision: - Goal Analysis Value Models and Roadmaps Political Science and Policy Studies Religious Studies and Future Beliefs Peace and Conflict Studies, Military Science Leadership Studies and Stakeholder Analysis

FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE – THE ELTVILLE MODEL EXTRAPOLATION – TREND and PATTERN ANALYSTS– believe that the past is the key to the future. The future is thus a logical extrapolation, extension and continuum of past historic patterns, cycles and trends. As the future develops and unfolds it does so as a continuum of time past, time present and time future – so eternally perpetuating the unfolding, extension, replication and preservation of those historic cycles, patterns and trends that have shaped and influenced actions and events throughout time….. The Probable Future – Assumptions: - Patent and Content Analysis Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) Fisher-Pry and Gompertz Analysis Pattern Analysis and Extrapolation Technology and Precursor Trend Analysis Morphological Matrices and Analogy Analysis

FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE – THE ELTVILLE MODEL EVOLUTIONISTS – Global Evolutionists believe that the earth and society behave as a self-regulating collection of interactive forces and systems. Global climatic, geological, biosphere, anthropologic and geo-political systems dominate at the macro-level – and at the micro-level local weather, ecology, environmental, social and economic sub-systems prevail. The future will evolve from a series of actions and events which emerge, unfold and develop – and then plateau, decline and collapse. These actions and events are essentially natural responses to human impact on ecological and environmental support systems - creating massive global change through population growth, environmental degradation and scarcity of natural resources. Over the long term, global stability and sustainability of those systems will be preserved – at the expense of world-wide human population levels. The Creatable Future – Opportunities: - Evolution - Opportunities and Adaptation Geological Cycles and Biological Systems Social Anthropology and Human Behaviour Global Massive Change and Human Impact Climatic Studies and Environmental Science Population Curves and Growth Limit Analysis

FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE – THE ELTVILLE MODEL STRATEGIC POSITIVISTS – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are determined via Strategic Foresight and defined by design, planning and future management – so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. The future may develop and unfold so as to comply with our positive vision of an ideal future – and thus fulfil all of our desired outcomes, goals and objectives – so that our preferred options may ultimately be realised. The Planned Future – Strategy: - Linear Systems and Game Theory Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis Future Landscape Modelling and Terrain Mapping Threat Assessment and Risk Management Economic Modelling and Financial Analysis Strategic Foresight and Future Management

FIVE VISIONS OF THE FUTURE – THE ELTVILLE MODEL RATIONAL FUTURISTS – Rational Futurists believe that the future is, to a large extent, both unknown and unknowable. Reality is non-liner – that is, chaotic – and therefore it is impossible to predict the future. With chaos comes the potential for disruption. Possible and Alternative Futures emerge from the interaction of chaos and uncertainty with the interplay of current trends and emerging factors of change. Probable future outcomes and events may be synthesised and implied via an intuitive assimilation and cognitive filtering of Weak Signals, inexorable trends, random and chaotic actions and disruptive Wild Card and Black Swan events. Just as the future remains uncertain, indeterminate and unpredictable, so it will be volatile and enigmatic – and it will be amazing..... The Amazing Future – Surprises: - Disruptive Futurism Weak Signals and Wild Cards Complex Systems and Chaos Theory Horizon Scanning, Monitoring and Tracking Cognitive Filtering and Intuitive Assimilation Nominal Group Conferences and Delphi Surveys

Thinking about the Future of Energy….. How different will tomorrow be? The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector. Decisions are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only begin to flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved tomorrow may be operating for more than half a century. Increasingly, the cost of many major capital investment decisions will be measured not in the hundreds of millions, but billions, of dollars. Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put their bets on technologies that will take many years to develop and mature Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)

Thinking About the Future of Energy The energy industry has one of the longest timelines of any business sector. Decisions are being made today for oil or natural gas fields that will only begin to flow fifteen years from now. A power plant approved tomorrow may be operating for more than half a century. Increasingly, the cost of major capital investment decisions will be measured not in the hundreds of millions, but billions, of dollars. Investors, in the meantime, have to decide where to put their bets on emerging technologies that may take many years to establish, develop and mature. Inevitably, much will change over those time frames. Unexpected geopolitical clashes will disrupt markets. Economic performance will be surprising. innovative Technology will bring in to focus new energy sources and change the competitive balance. Governments will undoubtedly change their minds on the dominance of laisez-faire market forces on the one hand, and imposition of regulation and state ownership on the other - and flip the balance between extremes more than once. Today, the outlook for regulation of carbon emissions creates another layer of uncertainty. There could be strong pressure to change the fuel choices in the face of tighter carbon regulations. Or the other hand, the international community may fail to agree on effective carbon controls, and state legislation and regulation could be absent, limited or not effectively enforced. There will certainly be much debate as to whether to rely on markets or regulation to meet climate change targets and goals.

Thinking About the Future of Energy How do we make decisions in the face of such chaos, disruption and uncertainty? “Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis” can play a very useful role. A disciplined process of scenario development provides a framework for managing the possibility of chaos, disruption and uncertainty. These are not forecasts or extrapolations. Rather, they are logical “stories” about alternative futures that force one to think about the “what-ifs,” the surprises and the range of uncertainties. Think of them as thought experiments, but grounded in wide-ranging research and analysis. Our energy scenarios combine structured narratives of how the larger world could evolve in the future with detailed energy market modeling. Yes, they are thought experiments, but the objective is to help people to think systematically about trends and the potential for changes, ruptures and discontinuities. Scenarios, of course, can be used for any industry or for public policy. Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) recently completed a study entitled “Dawn of a New Age - The Future Energy Timeline to 2030”: which presents three possible, probable and alternative long-term energy scenarios. The objective of the study is to clarify the risks and choices ahead. Each of the scenarios examines an important strategic question about how the world may unfold over the next 25 years and what this means for energy markets (see CERA’s Dawn of a New Age Scenarios in Brief).

Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis

Scenario 1- The Asian Phoenix SCENARIO 1 - What happens if the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, China and India – along with other countries in Asia Pacific continue to grow at their current rate? The Asian Phoenix Scenario examines the implications of a possible scenario for energy markets of such a transformed world. In this scenario, Asia reaches 54 percent of world GDP in 2030 and grows from its current 29 percent of world energy consumption to 42 percent. Continued strong economic growth in Asia pushes oil consumption to new highs. Tight markets keep prices well above the last 25 year average price per barrel. One outcome is that the international rivalry and competition for access to oil and gas resources not only grows but involves new players. “Eastern oil companies” emerge to compete with the traditional Western companies, especially in new regions of supply such as Central Asia and Africa. Another result, perhaps surprising to some, is that coal consumption will grow substantially, particularly in China and India. Coal powers these nations to new global standing but it also will become, if without mitigation, an increasing source of geopolitical tension as climate concerns mount.

Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point SCENARIO 2 - What would happen if oil prices move well above $100 price per barrel as experienced a few years ago? Could oil and gas lose its current totally dominant position in the energy sector? These are the questions that the Oil Price Break Point Scenario explores in the most probable scenario - a world in which oil breaks through the $100 per barrel barrier for a sustained period of time. In this scenario, it is not shortage of oil and gas resources as reserves above ground - nor accessible / exploitable hydrocarbon reservoirs below ground that pushes prices up - but rather global geopolitical events. This scenario demonstrates how ultra-high oil prices and global energy insecurity could unleash the second collapse in a double-dip depression - with a mix of policy and price responses along with enhanced technology innovation that would propel the worlds major industrial economies to begin finally to break away from the current massive dependency on hydrocarbon energy sources. In this scenario, one result of government and industry action, and new entrants in the energy business, is that by 2020, oil no longer has a monopoly grip on the transportation sector. Other liquid fuels derived from bio-fuels, kerogen oil shale, oil tar sands, coal-to-liquids, gas-to-liquids and even solid-to-gas (methane hydrate) technologies jostle for commercial feasibility and market share. Plug-in hybrid sources may also begin to win market share in such a high-cost energy future,

Scenario 2 – Oil Price Break Point SCENARIO 2 - Another outcome of high energy prices explored in detail within the Oil Price Break Point Scenario is progress toward reducing carbon emissions. National security concerns associated with high oil prices work hand-in-hand with concern over climate change (see “Aspen Group Declaration of Energy Independence”). Dessertec is investing in a massive Photo-voltaic array the size of Wales – deep in the heart of the Sahara Dessert. The European Union is planning a European Super-grid to transmit this energy to consumers. In the UK, there are advanced plans for an off-shore Grid to service Wind and Wave power generation farms in the North Sea . The result is that across the U.S., Europe, Japan and even the BRICS - Brazil, Russia, China and India - new energy policies are embraced that expand investment in renewable energy, nuclear and emerging carbon capture and storage technologies. The high oil price scenario also creates strong incentives to improve global energy efficiency. A feature of the Oil Price Break Point Scenario is that global energy intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a unit of GDP) in 2030 is reduced by 32 percent in comparison with the 2005 baseline.

Scenario 3– Geo-political Fissures SCENARIO 3 - What would happen if public opinion and government support for globalization around the world wanes as war, terrorism, economic insecurity and social exclusion feeds increased nationalism, isolationism and protectionism? That is the question at the heart of the Global Geo-political Fissures Scenario – under which energy markets could evolve in an entirely novel way as suggested in this alternative scenario. Diminished economic growth would cause oil prices to tumble back into the sub $50 range. In this scenario, governments assert more control over the energy sector. The trend in the electric power industry in many countries is to move away from competition and toward corporate responsibility with social mandates and more regulatory intervention-in some cases, even the nationalization of assets. Given the high stakes and uncertainty surrounding the future of energy, there is a need for structured ways of thinking about how the future may unfold. The next 25 years will be full of surprises. Scenarios can help us better prepare for these surprises - and perhaps even anticipate those surprises before they impact or materialize. Daniel Yergin, chairman of CERA, received the Pulitzer Prize for “The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power” and the United States Energy Award for lifelong achievements in energy and the promotion of international understanding. Vist CERA at http://cera.ecnext.com.

Sustainability and the Global Economy Economic Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or mechanism that can be maintained indefinitely at a certain constant level or state – without showing any long-term degradation, stress, impact, decline, failure or collapse.

Sustainability Sustainability is a characteristic of a process or state that can be maintained at a certain level indefinitely. The term, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems, such as the planet's climatic system, systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries, and the systems on which they depend. In recent years, public discourse has led to a use of "sustainability" in reference to how long human ecological systems can be expected to be usefully productive. In the past, complex human societies have died out, sometimes as a result of their own growth-associated impacts on ecological support systems. The implication is that modern industrial society, which continues to grow in scale and complexity, will also collapse. The implied preference would be for systems to be productive indefinitely, or be "sustainable." For example, "sustainable agriculture" would develop agricultural systems to last indefinitely; "sustainable development" can be a development of economic systems that last indefinitely, etc. A related side discourse links the term sustainability to longevity of natural ecosystems and reserves (set aside for other-than-human species), but the challenging emphasis has been on human systems and anthropogenic problems, such as anthropogenic climate change, or the depletion of fossil fuel reserves.

Renewable Resources A natural resource is a renewable resource if it is replenished by natural processes at a rate comparable or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Solar radiation, tides, winds and hydroelectricity are perpetual resources that are not in danger of being consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal. The term renewable resource also has the implication of sustainability of handling and absorption of waste products by the natural environment. Nuclear Fusion supportsLow Carbon Generation but carries with it problems of both renewability and sustainability. Nuclear Fission is both renewableandsustainable. Some natural renewable resources such as geothermal, fresh water, timber, and biomass must be carefully managed to avoid exceeding the environment's capacity to replenish them. A life cycle assessment provides a systematic evaluation of renewability. Petroleum, coal, natural gas, diesel, are commodities derived from fossil fuels and are non-renewable. Unlike fossil fuels, a renewable resource can have a sustainable yield. Renewable resources may also mean commodities such as wood, paper, and leather. Solar poweris the energy derived directly from the Sun. It is the most abundant source of energy on Earth. It is captured by photovoltaic cells, or by using sunlight to heat water. The Sun ignited about 4.6 billion years ago and will continue for another 5 billion years. Wind power is derived from uneven heating of the Earth's surface from the Sun and the warm core. Most modern wind power is generated in the form of electricity by converting the rotation of turbine blades into electrical current by means of an electrical generator. In windmills (a much older technology) wind energy is used to turn mechanical machinery to do physical work, like crushing grain or pumping water. Hydropower, energy derived from the movement of water in rivers and oceans (or other energy differentials), can likewise be used to generate electricity using turbines, or can be used mechanically to do useful work. It is a very common resource.

Combined heat and power (CHP) What is CHP? Combined heat and power (CHP), also known as co-generation, is the generation and exploitation of both heat and power (usually in the form of electricity) from the same equipment set, in the same place, at the same time. Not only does CHP enable the conversion of a high proportion of otherwise waste heat to usable heat, but it is very efficient because power is generated close to where it is being used (and thus electricity transmission losses are minimised). The predominant fuel used for CHP schemes is natural gas (62% in 2000). Other fuels include oil, coal or even renewables (such as municipal and industrial waste, sewage gases, biogases, from anaerobic digestion, biodiesel, gasification etc and wood). Who is it suitable for? CHP can be used throughout the commercial, industrial and public sectors. Larger, tailor-made systems are particularly suited to applications where there is a high heat demand, such as hospitals, leisure centres, hotels and industrial sites with process heating requirements (especially chemical, brewing and paper industries). Some industrial processes which use hot water or steam are suited to small scale (<1MW) CHP, including the following sectors: chemicals; textiles and leather; food and drink; rubber and plastics; engineering; and agriculture/horticulture. For a site to support a successful CHP installation, it should typically have a heat and power requirement for at least 4,500 hours/year (although it could be cost-effective with fewer operating hours). Generally, the greater the annual period of demand, then the greater the benefits…..

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In its simplest form a CHP system comprises a gas turbine, engine or steam turbine to drive an alternator.

The resulting electricity is used primarily on-site. The waste heat, in the form of steam or hot water, is collected and can be used to provide heat for industrial processes, for community heating and for space heating. It can also provide cooling - using advanced absorption cooling technology.

Systems vary considerable in size, from micro turbines (<50 kW) to many MW of electrical output,[object Object]

Petroleum Reservoir Modelling and Simulation

Sustainability and Global Ecosystems Ecological Sustainability. In the past, many complex human societies (Clovis, Mayan, Easter Island) have failed, died out or just simply disappeared - often as a result of either climate change or their own growth-associated impacts on ecological and environmental support systems.

Thinking about the Future….. The way that we think about the future must mirror how the future actually unfolds. As we have learned from recent experience, the future is not a straightforward extrapolation of simple, single-domain trends. We now have to consider ways in which the possibility of random, chaotic and radically disruptive events may be factored into enterprise threat assessment and risk management frameworks and incorporated into enterprise decision-making structures and processes. Managers and organisations often aim to “stay focused” and maintain a narrow perspective in dealing with key business issues, challenges and targets. A concentration of focus may risk overlooking those Weak Signals indicating potential issues and events, agents and catalysts of change. These Weak Signals – along with their resultant Wild Cards, Black Swan Events and global transformations - are even now taking shape at the very periphery of corporate awareness, perception and vision – or even just beyond. These agents of change may precipitate global impact-level events which either threaten the very survival of the organisation - or present novel and unexpected opportunities for expansion and growth. The ability to include weak signals and peripheral vision into the strategy and planning process may therefore be critical in contributing towards the organisation's continued growth, success, well being and survival.

Futures Studies Futures Studies, Foresight, or Futurology is the science, practice and art of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures. Futures studies (colloquially called "Futures" by many of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue, what is likely to change, and what is a novel, emerging pattern or trend. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and extrapolation-based understanding of both past and present events - in order to determine the probability and impact of future events, patterns and trends. Futures is an interdisciplinary curriculum, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional content and strategies, beliefs and opinions, forecasts and predictions with respect to shaping tomorrow. It includes analysing the sources, agents and causes, patterns and trends of both change and stability in an attempt to develop foresight and to map possible, probable and alternative futures.

Foresight Foresight draws on traditions of work in long-range forecasting and strategic planning horizontal policymaking and democratic planning, horizon scanning and futures studies (Aguillar-Milan, Ansoff, Feather, van der Hijden, Slaughter et all) - but was also highly influenced by systemic approaches to innovation studies, global design, massive change, science and technology futures, economic, social and demographic policy, fashion and design - and the analysis of "weak signals" and "wild cards", "future trends“ "critical technologies“ and “cultural evolution". The longer-term - futures that are usually at least 10 years away (though there are some exceptions to this, especially in its use in private business). Since Foresight is an action-oriented discipline (via the planning link) it will rarely be applied to perspectives beyond a few decades out. Where major infrastructure decisions such as petrology reservoir exploitation, aircraft design, power station construction, transport hubs and town master planning decisions are concerned - then the planning horizon may well be half a century. Alternative futures: it is helpful to examine alternative paths of development, not just what is currently believed to be most likely or business as usual. Often Foresight will construct multiple scenarios. These may be an interim step on the way to creating what may be known as positive visions, success scenarios or aspirational futures. Sometimes alternative scenarios will be a major part of the output of a Foresight study, with the decision about what preferred future to build being left to other mechanisms (Planning and Strategy).

Strategic Foresight Strategic Foresight is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in useful organisational ways. For example to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy, and to explore new markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures methods with those of strategic management (Slaughter (1999), p.287). Strategic Envisioning – Future outcomes, goals and objectives are defined via Strategic Foresight and are determined by design, planning and management - so that the future becomes realistic and achievable. Possible futures may comply with our preferred options - and therefore our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes could thus be fulfilled. Positivism – articulating a single, preferred vision of the future. The future will conform to our preferred options - thus our vision of an ideal future and desired outcomes will be fulfilled. Futurism – assessing possible, probable and alternative futures – selecting those futures offering conditions that best fit our strategic goals and objectives for achieving a preferred and desired future. Filtering for a more detailed analysis may be achieved by discounting isolated outliers and focusing upon those closely clustered future descriptions which best support our desired future outcomes, goals and objectives.

Risk Management Risk Managementis a structured approach to managing uncertainty through foresight and planning. A risk is related to a specific threat (or group of related threats) managed through a sequence of activities using various resources: - Risk Research – Risk Identification – Scenario Planning & Impact Analysis – Risk Assessment – Risk Prioritization – Risk Management Strategies – Risk Planning – Risk Mitigation Risk Managementstrategies may include: - Transferringthe risk to another party Avoidingthe risk Reducingthe negative effect of the risk Acceptingpart or all of the consequences of a particular risk . For any given set of Risk Management Scenarios, a prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurrence to be handled first – and those risks with a lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled subsequently in descending order of impact. In practice this prioritization can be challenging. Comparing and balancing the overall threat of risks with a high probability of occurrence but lower loss -versus risks with higher potential loss but lower probability of occurrence -can often be misleading.

Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis Scenario PanningandImpact Analysis: - In any Opportunity / Threat Assessment Scenario, a prioritization process ranks those risks with the greatest potential loss and the greatest probability of occurring to be handled first - subsequent risks with lower probability of occurrence and lower consequential losses are then handled in descending order. As a foresight concept, Wild Card or Black Swan events refer to those events which have a low probability of occurrence - but an inordinately high impact when they do occur. Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning have become key tools in policy making and strategic planning for many governments and global enterprises. We are now moving into a period of time impacted by unprecedented and accelerating transformation by rapidly evolving catalysts and agents of change in a world of increasingly uncertain, complex and interwoven global events. Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis have served us well as a strategic planning tools for the last 15 years or so - but there are also limitations to this technique in this period of unprecedented complexity and change. In support of Scenario Planning and Impact Analysis new approaches have to be explored and integrated into our risk management and strategic planning processes. Back-castingandBack-sight: - “Wild Card” or “Black Swan” events are ultra-extreme manifestations with a very low probability of, occurrence - but an inordinately high impact when they do occur. In any post-apocalyptic “Black Swan Event” Scenario Analysis, we can use Causal Layer Analysis (CLA)techniques in order to analyse and review our Risk Management Strategies – with a view to identifying those Weak Signals which may have predicated subsequent appearances of unexpected Wild Card or Black Swan events.

Weak Signals and Wild Cards “Wild Card” or "Black Swan" manifestations are extreme and unexpected events which have a very low probability of occurrence, but an inordinately high impact when they do happen Trend-making and Trend-breaking agents or catalysts of change may predicate, influence or cause wild card events which are very hard - or even impossible - to anticipate, forecast or predict. In any chaotic, fast-evolving and highly complex global environment, as is currently developing and unfolding across the world today, the possibility of any such "Wild Card” or "Black Swan" events arising may, nevertheless, be suspected - or even expected. "Weak Signals" are subliminal indicators or signs which may be detected amongst the background noise - that in turn point us towards any "Wild Card” or "Black Swan" random, chaotic, disruptive and / or catastrophic events which may be on the horizon, or just beyond...... Back-casting andBack-sight: - In a post-apocalypticBlack Swan EventScenario, we can use Causal Layer Analysis (CLA) techniques in order to analyse and review our Risk Management Strategies to identify those Weak Signals which may have predicted, suggested, pointed towards or indicated subsequent Wild Cards or Black Swan Events – in order to discover changes and improvements to strengthen Enterprise Risk Management Frameworks.

At the very Periphery of CorporateVision and Awareness….. Foresight and Precognition – Contemplative, mystic, meditative and psychic methods for pre-cognitive viewing of the future and how the future will unfold. These activities have been recorded throughout history (Josephus, Nostradamus) and are well known within certain cultures (Central American Indians) and government agencies (US and Soviet Military) - and may also involve the use of hypnotic or hallucinogenic states. The Intelligence Revolution – Artificial Intelligence will revolutionise homes, workplaces and lifestyles - and new virtual worlds will become so realistic that they will rival the physical world. Robots with human-level intelligence may finally become a reality, and at the ultimate stage of mastery, we'll even be able to merge human capacities with machine intelligence and attributes – via the man-machine interface. The Biotech Revolution – Genetics and biotechnology promise a future of unprecedented health and longevity: DNA screening could prevent many diseases, gene therapy could cure them and, thanks to laboratory-grown organs, the human body could be repaired as easily as a car, with spare parts readily available. Ultimately, the ageing process itself could be slowed or even halted. Trans-humanism – advocates the ethical use of technology to expand current human capacities, supporting the use of future science and technology to enhance human capabilities and qualities, in order to overcome undesirable and unnecessary aspects of the present human condition. The Quantum Revolution – The quantum revolution could turn many ideas of science fiction into science fact - from meta-materials with mind-boggling properties like invisibility through limitless quantum energy and room temperature superconductors to Arthur C Clarke's space elevator. Some scientists even forecast that in the latter half of the century everybody will have a personal fabricator that re-arranges molecules to produce everything from almost anything. Yet how will we ultimately use our mastery of matter? Like Samson, will we use our strength to bring down the temple? Or, like Solomon, will we have the wisdom to match our technology?

At the very Periphery of CorporateVision and Awareness….. Renewable Resources.Any natural resource is a renewable resourceif it is replenished by natural processes at a rate comprisable to or faster than its rate of consumption by humans or other users. Some renewable resources- solar radiation, tides, wind and hydroelectricity, nuclear fusion - are also classified as perpetual resources, in that they will never be able to be consumed at a rate in excess of their long-term availability or renewal. The term renewable resourcealso carries the implication of prolonged or perpetual sustainability for the processing and absorption of waste products via natural ecological and environmental processes. Sustainabilityis a characteristic of a process or mechanism that can be maintained indefinitely at a certain constant level or state – without showing any long-term degradation, decline or collapse.. This concept, in its environmental usage, refers to the potential longevity of vital human ecological support systems - such as the ecology, environment the and man-made systems of agriculture, industry, forestry, fisheries - and the planet's climate and natural processes and cycles upon which they depend. Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It includes both utopian and dystopian views of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment and geology are dominated by human manipulation – Human impact is now the major factor in climate change and environmental degradation. Extinction rate is currently greater than in the Permian-Triassic boundary extinction event Man now moves more rock and earth than do natural geological processes. In the past, many complex human societies (Clovis, Mayan, Easter Island) have failed, died out or just simply disappeared - often as a result of either climate change or their own growth-associated impacts on ecological and environmental support systems. Thus there is a clear precedent for modern industrial societies - which continue to grow unchecked in terms of globalisation complexity and scale, population growth and drift, urbanisation and environmental impact – societies which are ultimately unsustainable, and so in turn must also be destined for sudden and catastrophic instability, failure and collapse.

Global Massive Change Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are dominated by human manipulation

Global Massive Change EA-envision Global Massive Change is an evaluation of global capacities and limitations. It encompasses both utopian and dystopian possibilities of the emerging world future state, in which climate, the environment, ecology and geology are dominated by human manipulation: - Human impact is now the major factor in climate change. Species extinction rate is now greater than in the late Permian mass extinction event – in which 90% of all species were eliminated Man now moves more rock and earth than do all geological processes.

Climate Change Most scientists agree that global warming represents the greatest threat to the earth’s environmental and ecological systems. There is ample evidence that the Earth is heating up - in the last century the average temperature has increased about 0.6 degrees Celsius (about 1 degree Fahrenheit) around the world. From the melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, to the loss of tropical coral reefs as oceans become warmer, the effects of global warming are clear. Just as the evidence is irrefutable that temperatures have risen in the last century, it's also well established that carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has increased about 30 percent, enhancing the atmosphere's ability to trap heat. The precise relationship between the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and the higher temperatures has, however, been clearly demonstrated (Professor Richard Alley et all). Most scientists believe that human activity - the burning fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum and environmental degradation (such as deforestation) - are largely to blame for the global increase in carbon dioxide levels. As of now, the exact nature of this link is unclear - some scientists also point towards greenhouse gas contribution from natural causes in the Carbon Cycle (such as volcanic activity). The current rate of warning is unprecedented, however. It is apparently the fastest warming rate in millions of years, suggesting it probably is not a natural occurrence. Most scientists believe that the rise in temperatures will in continue to accelerate. The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2001 that the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 and 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100.

Factors of Climate Change Human Activities Consumption of Natural Resources Environmental Degradation Natural Cycles Astronomic Periodicity –Orbital (Milankovitch) Cycles and Insolation Plate Tectonics – Continental Drift, Vulcanicity, Mountain Building and Erosion Climate Change Processes Radiative Forcing The Biosphere The Greenhouse Effect Climate Characteristics and Mechanisms Energy Absorption Characteristics – Land, Oceans and Atmosphere Energy Distribution Mechanisms – Oceanic Currents and Global Weather Systems Biosphere Balancing Mechanisms Climate Modelling Historic Analysis – Greenhouse Gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Ice Mass Balance and Sea Level Current Climate - Global Average Temperature, Precipitation and Sea Level - Regional Variation and Trends Future Predictions - Greenhouse Gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Ice Mass Balance and Sea Level Climatic Events Extreme Climatic Changes – Storms, Flooding and Droughts; El Nino / La Nina Events Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Changes Ice Mass Balance Changes Sea Level Changes

Human Activities Consumption of Natural Resources Fossil Fuel Burning Biomass Reduction Mineral Exploitation Environmental Degradation Land Use Changes Deforestation Human impact on Land Use due to Agriculture and Forestry contributing towards the global loss of ecosystems and biomass Desertification Deforestation due to Human Impact on Land Use extending deserts and impacting climate change - causing increased aridity and drought Urbanisation and Globalisation Agricultural, Urban and Industrial Pollution Greenhouse Gases Water Vapour Cloud Formation - Jet Aircraft Condensation Trails Carbon Dioxide Fossil fuel consumption Methane Biogenic Methane due to impact of Agriculture and Environmental Degradation along with Global Warming and loss of Arctic Tundra CFCs Man-made Greenhouse Gases

Natural Cycles Astronomic Periodicity Solar Radiation Output Solar Radiation Output has increased by about 25% over the last 4 billion years Orbital (Milankovitch) Cycles Precession, Obliquity, Eccentricity and Inclination Solar Cycles Insolation Variation and Periodicity Plate Tectonics Continental Drift Continental Aggregation (Pangea, Gondwana etc.) and Dispersal (Oceanic Rift) Vulcanicity Basaltic Vulcanicity Sea Floor Spreading and Continental Rifts – Mid-Oceanic Ridge, Rift Valleys Convection Hotspots – Continental Flood Basalts, Mid-plate Oceanic Island Chains Andesitic Vulcanicity (Oceanic Plate Subduction Zones) Mountain Building and Erosion Alpine and Himalayan Orogenies – Horse-shoe Mountain Chains and Plateaus Erosion and Deposition – Isostatic Equilibrium, Normal Faulting, Valleys, Deltas

Climate Change Processes Radiative Forcing Solar Forcing – Solar Radiation Output Milankovitch (Solar Orbital) Cycles The Biosphere - Carbon Cycle Geological Activity CO2 Fixing – Carbonate and Fossil Fuel Deposition CO2 Release - Andesitic Vulcanicity (Oceanic Plate Subduction) Biological Activity Direct effects - CO2 Fixing and Release via Metabolic Processes Indirect effects - CO2 Fixing via Accelerated Rock and Soil Weathering and Erosion Greenhouse Effect Water Vapour Atmospheric Humidity and Cloud Formation Carbon Dioxide Carbon Cycle – Atmospheric / Oceanic / Terrestrial / Biomass Carbon Mass Balance Methane Biogenic Sources - due to impact of Change of Land Use and loss of Arctic Tundra Geological Sources – due to escape of Methane from Methane Hydrate Deposits NOx and SOx Nitrous and Sulphuric Acids - Atmospheric Dispersal of Aqueous Aerosols Atmospheric Particles Terrestrial (Volcanic) and Extra-terrestrial (Meteorites, Asteroids and Comets)

Climatic Characteristics and Mechanisms Energy Absorption Characteristics Land Oceans Atmosphere Energy Distribution Mechanisms The Ocean Currents Global Weather Systems Biosphere Balancing Mechanisms Carbon State Balance Carbon Cycle Input / Output Mechanisms – Carbon Fixing and Release Energy Balance Forcing Scenarios Greenhouse Effect Climate Modelling Historic Analysis – Greenhouse Gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Ice Mass Balance and Sea Level Changes Current Climate - Global Average Temperature, Precipitation and Sea Level - Regional Variation and Trends Future Predictions - Greenhouse Gases, Temperature, Precipitation, Ice Mass Balance and Sea Level Changes

Climatic Events Extreme Climatic Events Storms Flooding Droughts El Nino / La Nina Events Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Concentration Water Vapour Atmospheric Humidity and Cloud Formation Carbon Dioxide Carbon Cycle – Atmospheric / Oceanic / Terrestrial and Biomass carbon state balance Methane Biogenic Sources - due to impact of Change of Land Use and Global Warming Geological Sources – due to release of Methane from Methane Hydrate Deposits Ice Mass Balance Changes Alpine Glaciers Sea Ice Shelves – Arctic, Antarctic Polar Ice Caps – Greenland, Antarctica Sea Level Changes Thermal Expansion Ice Mass Contribution

Climate Models Due to the enormous complexity of the atmosphere, the most useful tools for gauging future changes are 'climate models'. These are computer-based mathematical models which simulate, in three dimensions, the climate's behaviour, its components and their interactions. Climate models are constantly improving based on both our understanding and the increase in computer power, though by definition, a computer model is a simplification and simulation of reality, meaning that it is an approximation of the climate system. The first step in any modelled projection of climate change is to first simulate the present climate and compare it to observations. If the model is considered to do a good job at representing modern climate, then certain parameters can be changed, such as the concentration of greenhouse gases, which helps us understand how the climate would change in response. Projections of future climate change therefore depend on how well the computer climate model simulates the climate and on our understanding of how forcing functions will change in the future. According to the range of possible forcing scenarios, and taking into account uncertainty in climate model performance, the IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 -4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 -6.4°C by 2100, depending on which emissions scenario is used. However, this global average will integrate widely varying regional responses, such as the likelihood that land areas will warm much faster than ocean temperatures, particularly those land areas in northern high latitudes (and mostly in the cold season). In Antarctica, however, average summer temperatures are rising – with increased ice loss. Globally, it is very likely that -as a result of increased climatic energy -storms, floods, heat waves, drought and other climatic extremes will increase.

Climate Models For Northern Hemisphere temperature, recent decades appear to be the warmest since at least about 1000AD, and the warming since the late 19thcentury is unprecedented over the last 1000 years. Older data sets are insufficient to provide reliable hemispheric temperature estimates. Ice core data suggest that the 20th century has been warm in many parts of the globe, but also that the significance of the warming varies geographically, when viewed in the context of climate variations of the last millennium. Large and rapid climatic changes affecting the atmospheric and oceanic circulation and temperature, and the hydrological cycle, occurred during the last ice age and during the transition towards the present Holocene period (which began about 10,000 years ago). Based on the incomplete evidence available, the projected change of 3 to 7°F (1.5 -4°C) over the next century would be unprecedented in comparison with the best available records from the last several thousand years. The IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios determines the range of future possible greenhouse gas concentrations (and other forcings) based on considerations such as population growth, economic growth, energy efficiency and a host of other factors. This leads a wide range of possible forcing scenarios, and consequently a wide range of possible future climates.

Climate Simulation Energy Balance and Conservation Equations Energy Absorption and Loss Energy Distribution The Greenhouse Effect Climate Modelling Radiative Forcing and Milankovitch Cycle Models The Biosphere and Carbon Cycle Input / Output Models Greenhouse Gas Level Models Global Average Temperature Models Ice Mass Balance and Global Mean Sea Levels Models Paleo-climatic, Historic and Current Data Sets Climatic Cycles Annual Chronology Detailed Records Climate Scenario Analysis Data Analysis and Climatic Scenario Modelling Runs Model Initializationand Calibration Baseline Data and Prediction Runs History Matching and Model Tuning Geographic Mapping and Analysis The Atmosphere - Weather Data and Spatial Analysis The Oceans – Current / Historic Temperature, Salinity, Currents and Sea Levels

Climate Prediction Energy Balance and Conservation Equations Energy Distribution, Absorption and Loss Algorithms The Biosphere and Human Impact Algorithms The Greenhouse Effect Algorithms Climate Modelling Greenhouse Gas Level Models Global Average Temperature Models Ice Mass Balance and Global Mean Sea Levels Models Historic and Current Climatic Data Sets Paleoclimatic Cycles, Patterns and Trends – last 30m years Annual Climatic Chronology – last 100k years Detailed Climatic Records 1750-Present Day Climate Scenario Projection Monte Carlo Simulation and Scenario Planning Runs Impact Analysis - Possible, Probable and Alternative Future Climatic Scenarios Future Climatic Data Sets Future Climatic Cycles, Patterns and Trends Projected Annual and Seasonal Climatology Geographic Mapping and Analysis The Atmosphere – Future Weather Data and Spatial Analysis The Ocean – Projected Sea Levels, Oceanic Currents and Sub-surface Modelling

GlobalWarming Examination of changes in climate extremes requires long-term daily or even hourly data sets which until recently have been scarce for many parts of the globe. However these data sets have become more widely available allowing research into changes in temperature and precipitation extremes on global and regional scales. Global changes in temperature extremes include decreases in the number of unusually cold days and nights and increases in the number of unusually warm days and nights. Other observed changes include lengthening of the growing season, and decreases in the number of frost days. Global temperature extremes have been found to exhibit no significant trend in inter-annual variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra-annual variability. There has been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely-separated areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in extreme high temperature events have not been observed. There is some indication of a decrease in day-to-day temperature variability in recent decades. Many individual studies of various regions show that extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to have generally increased over the last half of the 20thcentury in the northern hemisphere, but decreased in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has shown an increase in number since 1970 with a peak in 2005. It is not clear whether these trends are multi-decadal fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend.

GlobalWarming Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.74°C (plus or minus 0.18°C) since the late-19th century, and the linear trend for the past 50 years of 0.13°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) per decade is nearly twice that for the past 100 years Current levels of atmospheric CO2 have risen to 430ppm (up 150ppm from 280ppm at the start of the industrial revolution). Furthermore, the global rate of increase in levels of atmospheric CO2 is higher than at any time in the last 20,000 years and continues to rise exponentially (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). It is widely agreed that when CO2 levels exceed 500ppm then the tipping point of irreversible climate change will be surpassed – therefore catastrophic environmental degradation will become inevitable – destroying natural ecosystems and disrupting agriculture and fisheries with the consequent loss of up to 90 per cent of human population through scarcity of natural resources, resulting in population drift, war, famine and disease. Recent research has established a direct correlation between sea levels and average global temperature. For each one degree centigrade increase / decrease in average global temperature then there is a corresponding 20 metre rise / fall in sea level (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). The IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100 – indicating a catastrophic corresponding rise in sea levels in the range 22 –128 metres.

Global Temperature Anomalies This graph shows annual mean global temperature anomalies over the period 1880-2001. The zero line represents the long term mean temperature from 1880-2001, and the red and blue bars are showing annual departures from that mean. As is evident in the graph, 2001 was second only to 1998 in terms of global temperature, and the trend has been toward increasing temperatures at least since the beginning of the 20th century. Land temperatures have greater anomalies than the ocean, which is to be expected since land heats up and cools down faster than water.

Sea Level Rising Recent research has established a direct correlation between sea levels and average global temperature. For each one degree centigrade increase / decrease in average global temperature then there is a corresponding 20 metre rise / fall in sea level (Professor Richard Alley, Penn State University). The IPCC projects a best estimate of global temperature increase of 1.8 - 4.0°C with a possible range of 1.1 - 6.4°C by 2100 – indicating a potential catastrophic corresponding rise in sea levels in the range 22 –128 metres. Global mean sea level has been rising historically at an average rate of around 1.7 mm / year (plus or minus 0.5mm) over the past 100 years - which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. Global Mean Sea Level is, however, currently rising at nearly 3mm / year - and that rate is accelerating. Scientists fully expect average sea levels to have risen by 30cm or more by the year 2100 on a simple projection of these oceanic thermal expansion figures alone. Depending on which greenhouse gas increase scenario is used (high or low) projected sea-level rise is projected to be anywhere from 0.18 (low greenhouse gas increase) to 0.59 meters by 2100 for the highest greenhouse gas increase scenario. Acceleration of global warming may lead to a ten-fold future Global Mean Sea Level increase – suggesting a potential 3 meter rise in average sea levels by 2100 due to small inputs from Thermal Expansion and significant inputs from Ice Mass contribution.

Climate Change Most scientists agree that global warming presents the most significant threat to the earth’s environment. There is little doubt that the Earth is heating up. In the last century the average global temperature has climbed by about 0.6 degrees Celsius (1 degree Fahrenheit) around the world – characterised by warmer winters in the northern hemisphere, and correspondingly warmer summers in the southern hemisphere. From the melting of the ice cap on Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's tallest peak, to the loss of the Larsen Ice shelf as the southern ocean warms - the effects of global warming are clearly evident. Just as conclusive as the evidence for increased global warming over the last century, is the equally well documented rise in carbon dioxide levels in the Earth's atmosphere – by about 30 percent – thus increasing the atmosphere's capacity to trap solar radiation as heat. Recent research has established a direct correlation between increase in carbon dioxide levels and the rise in average global temperature. The precise nature of the relationship between the increase in carbon dioxide emissions and higher global temperatures is still under debate. Most scientists believe that human activity is largely responsible for the increase in carbon dioxide levels – consuming fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum. The current rate of warning is unprecedented. This is apparently the fastest rate of warming in millions of years - suggesting it is probably not entirely a natural cyclical phenomenon. Many scientists believe that the rate of increase in temperatures will accelerate rapidly. The United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported in 2001 that the average temperature is likely to increase by between 1.4 - 5.8 degrees Celsius (2.5 -10.4 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100.

Climate Change Since our entire climatic system is fundamentally driven by energy from the sun, it stands to reason that if the sun's energy output were to vary, then so would the climate. Since the advent of space-borne measurements in the late 1970s, solar output has indeed been shown to exhibit cyclic variation. With 28 years of reliable satellite observations there is now confirmation of earlier suggestions of an 11 (and 22) year cycle of solar irradiance related to sunspots - but no longer term trends can readily be extrapolated from this relatively short span of tine of the data sample. Based on paleo-climatic (proxy) reconstructions of solar radiation there is a suggestion of a trend of about +0.12 W/m2 since 1750 which is about half of the estimate given in the last IPCC report in 2001. There is though, a great deal of uncertainty in estimates of solar irradiance beyond that which can be measured directly by satellite instruments, and still the contribution of direct solar irradiance forcing is small compared to the greenhouse gas. Furthermore, there are variations in the attitude of the Earth to the Sun (axis tilt and wobble) and cyclic changes to the orbit of the Earth around the Sun – which affect the amount of radiation actually received surface at the earth over time Currently our understanding of the indirect effects of changes in solar output and it’s impact on the global climatic system are evolving. There is a clear desire to refine our understanding of key climatic natural forcing mechanisms – including solar irradiance variation and cyclic changes in the movement of the Earth – in order to improve our climate models and reduce the uncertainty around future projections of climate change.

Climate Change In addition to changes in the amount of energy received from the sun itself, the Earth's position and orientation relative to the sun (Earth's orbit) also varies slightly, thereby bringing us closer and further away from the sun in predictable cycles (Milankovitch Cycles). Variations in these cycles are believed to be the cause of Earth's ice-ages (glacial episodes). Over several centuries, it may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters. One important factor of particular significance for the development of alpine glaciations on high ground in Europe, Greenland and Canada is the amount of radiation received at high northern latitudes in the summer. Cool summers allow more winter snow to remain on the ground of north facing slopes from one season to the next – allowing the gradual accumulation of snow and ice year-on-year as a precursor for glaciations. Diminishing radiation at these latitudes during the summer months would have enabled the winter snow and ice cover to persist throughout the year - eventually leading to a permanent snow-cap (on land) or icepack (over the ea). While Milankovitch Cycles have tremendous value in explaining ice-ages and long-term climatic changes on the earth, there are other factors which have very high impact on the decade-century timescale. However for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these long-term factors will be far less significant than other changes - such a radiative forcing from greenhouse gases.

The Earth’s Movements EA-envision As the Earth spins around its axis and orbits around the Sun, several quasi-periodic variations occur. Although the curves have a large number of sinusoidal components, a few components are dominant. Milankovitch studied changes in the eccentricity, obliquity, and precession of Earth's movements. Such changes in movement and orientation change the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This is known as solar forcing (an example of radiative forcing). Changes near the north polar area are considered important due to the large amount of land, which reacts to such changes more quickly than the oceans do. Currently the difference between closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) and furthest distance (aphelion) is only 3.4% (5.1 million km). This difference is equivalent to about a 6.8% change in incoming solar radiation. Perihelion presently occurs around January 3, while aphelion is around July 4. When the orbit is at its most elliptical, the amount of solar radiation at perihelion is about 23% greater than at aphelion. This difference is roughly 4 times the value of the eccentricity. Orbital mechanics require that the length of the seasons be proportional to the areas of the seasonal quadrants, so when the eccentricity is extreme, the seasons on the far side of the orbit can be substantially longer in duration. When autumn and winter occur at closest approach, as is the case currently in the northern hemisphere, the earth is moving at its maximum velocity and therefore autumn and winter are slightly shorter than spring and summer. Thus, summer in the northern hemisphere is 4.66 days longer than winter and spring is 2.9 days longer than autumn. EA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework

Milankovitch Cycles EA-envision Milankovitch Cycles are the collective effect of changes in the Earth's movements upon its climate, named after the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milanković. The eccentricity(E), axial tilt(T), and precession(P) of the Earth's orbit vary in several patterns, resulting in 100,000-year ice age cycles of the Quaternary glaciations over the last few million years. The Earth's axis completes one full cycle of precession(P) approximately every 26,000 years. At the same time, the elliptical orbit rotates, more slowly, leading to a 21,000-year cycle between the seasons and the orbit. In addition, the angle between Earth's rotational axis and the normal to the plane of its orbit moves from 22.1 degrees to 24.5 degrees and back again on a 41,000-year cycle. Currently, this angle is 23.44 degrees and decreasing. The Milankovitch Cycles, or ‘orbital’ theory of the ice ages is now well developed. Ice ages are generally triggered by minima in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, enabling winter snowfall to persist through the year and therefore accumulate to build Northern Hemisphere glacial ice sheets. Similarly, times with especially intense high-latitude Northern Hemisphere summer insolation, determined by orbital changes, are thought to trigger rapid de-glaciations, associated climate change and sea level rise. These orbital forcings determine the pacing of climatic changes, while the large responses appear to be determined by strong feedback processes that amplify the orbital forcing. Over multi-millennial time scales, orbital forcing also exerts a major influence on key climate systems such as the Earth’s major monsoons, global ocean circulation and the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. Current evidence indicates that current warming will not be mitigated by a natural cooling trend towards glacial conditions. Understanding of the Earth’s response to orbital forcing indicates that the Earth will not naturally enter another ice age for at least 30,000 years.

Milankovitch Cycles EA-envision EA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework

Milankovitch Cycles EA-envision National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Orbital shape (eccentricity) EA-envision The Earth's orbit is an ellipse. The eccentricity is a measure of the departure of this ellipse from circularity. The shape of the Earth's orbit varies from being nearly circular (low eccentricity of 0.005) to being mildly elliptical (high eccentricity of 0.058) and has a mean eccentricity of 0.028. The major component of these variations occurs on a period of 413,000 years (eccentricity variation of ±0.012). A number of other terms vary between 95,000 and 136,000 years, and loosely combine into a 100,000-year cycle (variation of −0.03 to +0.02). The present eccentricity is 0.017. If the Earth were the only planet orbiting our Sun, the eccentricity of its orbit would not vary in time. The Earth's eccentricity varies primarily due to interactions with the gravitational fields of Jupiter and Saturn. As the eccentricity of the orbit evolves, the semi-major axis of the orbital ellipse remains unchanged. From the perspective of the perturbation theory used in celestial mechanics to compute the evolution of the orbit, the semi-major axis is an adiabatic invariant. According to Kepler's third law the period of the orbit is determined by the semi-major axis. It follows that the Earth's orbital period, the length of a sidereal year, also remains unchanged as the orbit evolves. EA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework

Orbital inclination EA-envision The inclination of Earth's orbit drifts up and down relative to its present orbit with a cycle having a period of about 70,000 years. Note: Milankovitch did not study this three-dimensional aspect of orbital movement. More recent researchers noted this drift and that the orbit also moves relative to the orbits of the other planets. The invariable plane, the plane that represents the angular momentum of the solar system, is approximately the orbital plane of Jupiter. The inclination of the Earth's orbit has a 100,000 year cycle relative to the invariable plane. This 100,000-year cycle closely matches the 100,000-year pattern of ice ages. It has been proposed that a disk of dust and other debris is in the invariable plane, and this affects the Earth's climate through several possible means. The Earth presently moves through this plane around January 9 and July 9, when there is an increase in radar-detected meteors and meteor-related noctilucent clouds. A study of the chronology of Antarctic ice cores using oxygen to nitrogen ratios in air bubbles trapped in the ice, which appear to respond directly to the local insolation, concluded that the climatic response documented in the ice cores was driven by Northern Hemisphere insolation as proposed by the Milankovitch hypothesis (Kawamura et al, Nature, 23 August 2007, vol 448, p912-917). This is an additional validation of the Milankovitch hypothesis by a relatively novel method, and is inconsistent with the "inclination" theory of the 100,000-year cycle. EA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework

Axial tilt (obliquity) The angle of the Earth's axial tilt (obliquity) varies with respect to the plane of the Earth's orbit. These slow 2.4° obliquity variations are roughly periodic, taking approximately 41,000 years to shift between a tilt of 22.1° and 24.5° and back again. When the obliquity increases, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in insolation increases, with summers in both hemispheres receiving more irradiative flux from the Sun, and the winters less irradiative flux. As a result, it is assumed that the winters become colder and summers warmer. But these changes of opposite sign in the summer and winter are not of the same magnitude. The annual mean insolation increases in high latitudes with increasing obliquity, while lower latitudes experience a reduction in insolation. Cooler summers are suspected of encouraging the start of an ice age by melting less of the previous winter's ice and snow. So it can be argued that lower obliquity favours ice ages both because of the mean insolation reduction in high latitudes as well as the additional reduction in summer insolation. There may be some evidence of warmer winters in the northern hemisphere and warmer summers in the southern hemisphere. Currently the Earth is tilted at 23.44 degrees from its orbital plane, roughly half way between its extreme values. The tilt is in the decreasing phase of its cycle, and will reach its minimum value around the year 10,000 AD. EA-envision EA-envision:Strategic Enterprise Management Framework

Precession (wobble) EA-envision Precession is the change in the direction of the Earth's axis of rotation relative to the fixed stars, with a period of roughly 26,000 years. This gyroscopic motion is due to the tidal forces exerted by the sun and the moon on the solid Earth, associated with the fact that the Earth is not a perfect sphere but has an equatorial bulge. The sun and moon contribute roughly equally to this effect. In addition, the orbital ellipse itself precesses in space (anomalistic precession), primarily as a result of interactions with Jupiter and Saturn. This orbital precession is in the opposite sense to the gyroscopic motion of the axis of rotation, shortening the period of the precession of the equinoxes with respect to the perihelion from 26,000 to 21,000 years. When the axis is aligned so it points toward the Sun during perihelion, one polar hemisphere will have a greater difference between the seasons while the other hemisphere will have milder seasons. The hemisphere which is in summer at perihelion will receive much of the corresponding increase in solar radiation, but that same hemisphere will be in winter at aphelion and have a colder winter. The other hemisphere will have a relatively warmer winter and cooler summer. When the Earth's axis is aligned such that aphelion and perihelion occur near the equinoxes, the Northern and Southern Hemispheres will have similar contrasts in the seasons. At present perihelion occurs during the Southern Hemisphere's summer, and aphelion is reached during the southern winter. Thus the Southern Hemisphere seasons are somewhat more extreme than the Northern Hemisphere seasons, when other factors are equal. Currently there is significant evidence of warmer winters in the northern hemisphere, and correspondingly there are warmer summers in the southern hemisphere.

Climate Change Indirect indicators of global warming such as ice borehole temperatures, snow cover, and glacier recession data, are in substantial agreement with the more direct indicators of recent warmth. Evidence such as changes in glacial mass balance (the amount of snow and ice contained in a glacier) is useful since it not only provides qualitative support for meteorological data, but glaciers are often found in places too remote to support meteorological stations. The records of glacial advance and retreat often extend back further than weather station records, and glaciers are usually at much higher altitudes than weather stations, allowing scientists more insight into temperature changes prevalent higher in the atmosphere - though extending the Antarctic sea-ice record back in time is more difficult due to the lack of direct observations in this part of the world. Large-scale measurements of sea-ice have only been possible since the satellite era, but through looking at a number of different satellite estimates, it has been determined that September Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 2007 at a rate of about -10% +/- 0.3% per decade. Sea ice extent for September for 2007 was by far the lowest on record at 4.28 million square kilometres, eclipsing the previous record low sea ice extent by 23%. Sea ice in the Antarctic has shown very little trend over the same period, or even a slight increase from 1979 to 1995. In 1995, however, Larsen Ice Shelf A disintegrated. In 2002 the whole of the Larsen Ice Shelf B disappeared in just a few weeks – an area the size of Rhode Island in the USA. The mechanism is thought to be summer liquid water pooling at the surface, filtering down cracks and crevices and subsequently freezing – shattering the ice sheet

Global Warming Clouds are an important indicator of climate change. Surface-based observations of cloud cover suggest increases in total cloud cover over many continental regions – including areas of increased urbanization such as tropical Africa and southern Asia. This increase since 1950 is consistent with regional increases in precipitation for the same period. However, despite regional variation, analyses of cloud cover over land for the period 1976-2003 shows little statistically significant overall global change. An enhanced greenhouse effect would be expected to cause cooling in higher parts of the atmosphere because the increased "blanketing" effect in the lower atmosphere holds in more heat, allowing less to reach the upper atmosphere. Cooling of the lower stratosphere (about 49,000-79,500 ft.) since 1979 is shown by both satellite Microwave Sounding Unit and weather balloon data, but is larger in weather balloon data (most likely this is due to unidentified / uncorrected data errors). Relatively cool surface and tropospheric temperatures, and a relatively warmer lower stratosphere, were observed in 1992 and 1993, due to atmospheric volcanic dust following the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo. The warming reappeared in 1994. A dramatic global warming took place in 1998 - at least partly associated with the record El Niño. This warming episode was consistent from the surface right to the top of the troposphere.

Global Warming EA-envision Global surface temperatures have increased about 0.74°C (plus or minus 0.18°C) since the late-19th century, and the linear trend for the past 50 years of 0.13°C (plus or minus 0.03°C) per decade is nearly twice that for the past 100 years The warming has not been globally uniform. Some areas (including parts of the south-eastern U.S. and parts of the North Atlantic) have, in fact, cooled slightly over the last century. The recent warmth has been greatest over North America and Eurasia between 40 and 70°N, Lastly, seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001 and the 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1995.

Global Warming Examination of changes in climate extremes requires long-term daily or even hourly data sets which until recently have been scarce for many parts of the globe. However these data sets have become more widely available allowing research into changes in temperature and precipitation extremes on global and regional scales. Global changes in temperature extremes include decreases in the number of unusually cold days and nights and increases in the number of unusually warm days and nights. Other observed changes include lengthening of the growing season, and decreases in the number of frost days. Global temperature extremes have been found to exhibit no significant trend in inter-annual variability, but several studies suggest a significant decrease in intra-annual variability. There has been a clear trend to fewer extremely low minimum temperatures in several widely-separated areas in recent decades. Widespread significant changes in extreme high temperature events have not been observed. There is some indication of a decrease in day-to-day temperature variability in recent decades. Many individual studies of various regions show that extra-tropical cyclone activity seems to have generally increased over the last half of the 20th century in the northern hemisphere, but decreased in the southern hemisphere. Furthermore, hurricane activity in the Atlantic has shown an increase in number since 1970 with a peak in 2005. It is not clear whether these trends are multi-decadal fluctuations or part of a longer-term trend.

Global Warming Recent analyses of temperature trends in the lower and mid- troposphere (between about 2,500 and 26,000 ft.) using both satellite and weather balloon data show warming rates that are similar to those observed for surface air temperatures. These warming rates are consistent with their uncertainties and these analyses reconcile a discrepancy between warming rates noted on the IPCC Third Assessment Report (U.S. Climate Change Science Plan Synthesis and Assessment Report 1.1). .

Precipitation Globally-averaged land-based precipitation shows no statistically significant upward trend - with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the 20th century. Furthermore, observed precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century. On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – areas remote from major cities. Decreases have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia. This may be explained by the dramatic increase in air travel from the early 1960s onwards. Up to 10% of global cloud cover is generated by jet condensation trails – acting to both reduce the amount of energy from sunlight reaching the earth, and also the amount of evaporation of surface water caused by photon energy in sunlight directly exciting surface water molecules - thus making them more energetic and increasing overall evaporation. Jet aircraft traffic density is lower in higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern South America and in northern Australia – therefore jet condensation trails have a smaller impact on reducing evaporation. Clearly, although jet travel contributes greatly to rising greenhouse gas levels, jet condensation trails act to suppress impact on the environment Due to the difficulty in measuring trends in annual precipitation, it has been important to validate these observations by analysing other related variables. The measured changes in precipitation are consistent with observed changes in stream flow, lake levels, and soil moisture (where data sets are available and have been analysed).

Precipitation Globally-averaged land-based precipitation shows no statistically significant upward trend - with most of the increase occurring in the first half of the 20th century. Furthermore, observed precipitation changes have been spatially variable over the last century. On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – areas remote from major cities. Decreases have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia.

Precipitation On a regional basis, increase in annual precipitation have occurred in the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, in southern South America and in northern Australia – all areas that are remote from major cities. Decreases in annual precipitation have occurred in tropical Africa and in southern Asia – all areas of increased urbanisation.

El Niño and La Niña El Niño's are not caused by global warming. Clear evidence exists from a variety of sources (including archaeological studies) that El Niño's have been present for thousands, and some indicators suggest maybe millions, of years. However, it has been hypothesized that warmer global sea surface temperatures can enhance the El Niño phenomenon, and it is also true that El Niño's (and La Niña's) have been more frequent and intense in recent decades. Whether El Niño occurrence changes with climate change is a major research question. A rather abrupt change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation behaviour occurred around 1976/77. Often called the climatic shift of 1976/77, this new regime has persisted. There have been relatively more frequent and persistent El Niño episodes rather than the cool episode La Niñas. This behaviour is highly unusual in the last 130 years (the period of instrumental record). Changes in precipitation over the tropical Pacific are related to this change in the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, which has also affected the pattern and magnit

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