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The Supply Chain Index
Gauging Supply Chain Improvement
6/15/2018
By Lora Cecere
Founder and CEO
Supply Chain Insights LLC
and Alina Beskrovna
Research Associate
Supply Chain Insights LLC
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Contents
Executive Summary
Overview of the Supply Chain Index
Balance
Strength
Resiliency
The Definition of the Index: Putting It All Together
Visualizing the Patterns
Industry-Specific Results
Automotive
Chemical
Food
Household Products
Pharmaceutical
Telecommunications
Recommendations
Conclusion
Appendix: Mathematical Calculations Behind the Index Ranking
Open Content Research
Other Reports about the Index
About Supply Chain Insights LLC
About Lora Cecere
About Alina Beskrovna
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Executive Summary
The supply chain is a complex, nonlinear system. Supply chain excellence is a balancing act of
competing priorities of growth, cost, inventory and asset strategies. The Supply Chain Index is a
methodology to measure supply chain improvement of this metrics portfolio as shown in Figure 1. We
term this the Effective Frontier.
Figure 1. The Effective Frontier
Improvement happens most quickly for companies with the most to gain. As companies become more
effective in balancing supply chain metrics, it becomes harder and harder to drive improvement.
Supply chain excellence is defined here as outperforming the peer group while driving supply chain
improvement at a faster rate than the industry.
Today, this is tough. At the beginning of the last decade, companies were able to make rapid
improvement on the Effective Frontier. This was the dawn of business-to-business computing, the
building of the global supply chain, and the automation of supply chain processes. Now the story is
different. As will be seen in this report, for nine out of ten companies, supply chain progress is stalled.
To help companies gauge improvement, we developed the Supply Chain Index methodology. At its
core, the Supply Chain Index is a ranking of supply chain improvement across a balanced portfolio of
metrics, measured over time, within an industry peer group. In this report, we apply the methodology
to six industry sectors (automotive, chemical, food, household products, pharmaceutical, and
telecommunications) for two time periods, 2006-2016 and 2010-2016. The first looks at improvement
across the Great Recession and post-recession periods, and the second shorter period evaluates
post-recession results. As will be seen, improvement in metrics results was faster pre-recession when
supply chains were smaller and more regional.
Page 4
Overview of the Supply Chain Index
The Supply Chain Indexโ„ข is based on the calculation of three factorsโ€”balance, strength, and
resiliencyโ€”based on patterns at the intersection of the four metrics of the Effective Frontier: Growth,
Operating Margin, Inventory Turns and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). Each of the three factors
contributes one-third to the final Index ranking.
1) Balance: The vector trajectory of the pattern between year-over-year growth and Return on
Invested Capital.
2) Strength: The vector trajectory of the pattern between operating margin and inventory turns.
3) Resiliency: The tightness of the pattern at the intersection of inventory turns and operating
margin.
Balance
Balance in the supply chain is a constant struggle. The two metrics which
comprise our balance measure are Year-over-Year Revenue Growth and
Return on Invested Capital. Return on Invested Capital is a less well-known
metric compared to Return on Assets (ROA). We use ROIC because it is a
broader metric that encompasses all assets, while Return on Assets has a
narrower focus. Our research indicates that ROIC has a better correlation with stock market
capitalization and provides a broad perspective on cash flow generation and profitability based on
shareholder equity. The formula used for ROIC is:
๐‘…๐‘’๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘Ÿ๐‘› ๐‘œ๐‘› ๐ผ๐‘›๐‘ฃ๐‘’๐‘ ๐‘ก๐‘’๐‘‘ ๐ถ๐‘Ž๐‘๐‘–๐‘ก๐‘Ž๐‘™ =
๐‘‚๐‘๐‘’๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘›๐‘” ๐ผ๐‘›๐‘๐‘œ๐‘š๐‘’ + ๐ผ๐‘›๐‘๐‘œ๐‘š๐‘’ ๐‘‡๐‘Ž๐‘ฅ ๐‘‡๐‘œ๐‘ก๐‘Ž๐‘™
๐‘‡๐‘œ๐‘ก๐‘Ž๐‘™ ๐‘†โ„Ž๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘’โ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘™๐‘‘๐‘’๐‘Ÿโ€ฒ ๐‘ ๐ธ๐‘ž๐‘ข๐‘–๐‘ก๐‘ฆ
The goal is to drive higher returns than the market rate of the cost of capital.
The balance measure in the Supply Chain Index is a mathematical calculation of the vector trajectory
of the pattern between Growth and ROIC for a specific time period (see the Appendix for more details
on the formula). To understand this measurement, imagine a four-quadrant grid from high school
algebra with Growth and ROIC on the two axes. In our calculation, the overall trajectory of this vector
from Year 0 (2006) to Year 10 (2016) is simplified into a single value which represents the companyโ€™s
ability to balance year-over-year Growth and ROIC. Companies that were able to drive improvement
in both metrics score the best, while companies that deteriorated in both metrics do the worst.
Strength
A successful supply chain is a strong one. Supply chain leaders strive to
deliver year-over-year improvements. There is tension between operating
margin and inventory turns. For most supply chain leaders, these are some of
the most important measures of their performance. Not only are they important,
Page 5
they are also more directly influenced by supply chain decisions than broader corporate metrics. It is
for this reason they are the two components of our strength factor in the Supply Chain Index.
The strength measure in the Supply Chain Index is a mathematical calculation of the vector trajectory
of the pattern between inventory turns and operating margin for the period of 2006 to 2016 (see the
Appendix for more details on the formula). Like the balance factor, imagine a four-quadrant grid from
high school algebra. Inventory Turns and Operating Margin performance are graphed on an annual
basis from an origin point representing performance on the two metrics at Year 0 (2006). The overall
trajectory of this vector from Year 0 (2006) to Year 16 (2016) is simplified into a single value which
represents strength. Improvement on both metrics simultaneously is graphically shown as movement
to the upper right quadrant with increasing values for both inventory turns and operating margin over
the period.
Resiliency
Resiliency is an adjective easily tossed around as one of the key qualities of a
successful supply chain in todayโ€™s volatile world. However, the concept of
resiliency lacks an industry definition. It is more difficult to define and there is
rarely clarity among stakeholders as to what resiliency is or should be.
As we plotted chart after chart at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin, we could
see that some supply chains had very tight patterns at the intersection of these two metrics while
other companies had wild swings. We wanted to find a way to measure the variation. After evaluating
several methods to determine the pattern in the orbit chart, we settled upon the Euclidean Mean
Distance between the points.
These results were published in our March 2014 report: Supply Chain Metrics That Matter: Improving
Supply Chain Resiliency, where we defined resiliency as the tightness of the pattern at the
intersection of inventory turns and operating margin (see the Appendix for more details on the
formula). These metrics, critical for any supply chain, are components of both the Strength and
Resiliency metrics in our Supply Chain Index model. As shown in Table 1, the resiliency of the supply
chain varies considerably by industry. Household products is the most resilient and
telecommunications the least. Automotive lacked resiliency during the recession, but improved
resiliency post-recession. It is important to note, and remember while reviewing the data that follows,
that a lower number for resiliency is an indicator of a tighter (as in better) pattern and greater
reliability in results over the time period. The resiliency score is the mean value. Telecommunications
has the highest value and struggled the most with resiliency.
Page 6
Table 1. Supply Chain Resiliency by Industry
Page 7
The Definition of the Index:
Putting It All Together
Each of the factors of the Supply Chain Indexโ€”Balance, Strength and Resiliencyโ€”comprises one-
third of the final ranking. The values are compiled in a matrix (shown in Table 2), which is created for
each industry sector peer group across the time periods which are analyzed. The Index ranking is
calculated following these three steps:
1. Rank the companies within each factor.
2. Calculate the average ranking for each company across the factors.
3. Rank this average ranking within the peer group. This is the final Index ranking.
It is important to note that in cases where a company was identified as being an outlier in terms of
balance, strength, and/or resiliency within their respective peer groups, it is removed from the Index
calculation (see the Appendix for details on outlier determination).
Table 2. Supply Chain Index Ranking System
Page 8
Visualizing the Patterns
Since the Supply Chain Index is based on the intersection of metrics over time, we have found an
orbit chart to be the best method for visualizing the patterns. An orbit chart plots year-over-year
performance on two metrics (see the example of The TJX Companies, Inc. in Figure 2) and enables
the visualization of a pattern. The โ€œBest Scenarioโ€ is indicated in red in the upper-right corner of the
plot. The metricsโ€™ averages for the period are shown in the box under the TJX stock symbol. In this
example, it is clear TJX has made great progress towards the best scenario. However, most
companies have not.
Figure 2. Example of an Orbit Chart
While progress may be driven on a project basis, or within a division, it is becoming more and more
difficult to drive a positive trend at this intersection. Companies making the most progress have a
holistic definition of the end-to-end supply chain and are strong in the use of analytics. Strong skills in
supply chain planning help companies to translate supply chain strategy into feasible trade-offs. It is a
constant balancing act.
Page 9
Industry-Specific Results
The Supply Chain Index, in this report, is applied to six separate industry sector peer groups:
automotive; chemical; food; household products; pharmaceutical; and telecommunications. We
measure two time periods, 2006-2016 and 2010-2016, in order to examine relative improvement
during and after the recession.
Automotive
The Automotive industry struggled to regain balance and maintain momentum after the economic
downturn in 2007. As can be seen in Table 3a, Tesla Inc. is an obvious outlier, scoring 200 times the
industry average on resiliency. As a result, it was removed from the Supply Chain Index calculations.
Ford continued to lag at the bottom of the charts. The company struggles to drive supply chain
improvement.
Table 3a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Automotive Companies (2006-2016)
The company driving the greatest improvement for 2006-2016 is Daimler while is Suzuki had
the greatest improvement in the post-recession period (shown in Table 3b). Subaru
outperformed in second place over the longer time horizon, while Toyota drove higher levels of
improvement in the post-recessionary period.
Page 10
Table 3b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Automotive Companies 2010-2016
Ford, like most of the Automotive industry, is losing ground year-over year. The company is a
laggard. These trends can be seen in the two orbit charts below. Note the positive trend of continuous
improvement for Suzuki Motors. Note that while Ford outperforms on inventory turns and operating
margin, they are losing ground on the performance metrics and lack resiliency (shown by the wild
swings). Suzuki is gaining ground against the industry peer group but is underperforming against
Ford. It is hard for a company that is outperforming their peer group to drive improvement.
Page 11
Figure 3. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Suzuki Motors and Ford (2010-2016)
Figure 4. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Suzuki Motors and Ford (2010-2016)
Page 12
Chemical
Sitting four to five layers back in the supply chain, the chemical industry struggled to maintain
momentum through the last economic downturn and drive recovery. In the last decade, costs and
waste were pushed backwards in the value chain by downstream trading partners, creating a barrier
for the chemical manufacturer.
Of the industries profiled in the report, the chemical industry struggled the most to remain strong. It
scored the lowest value in the industry average for the balance factor of -0.05 and experienced the
most significant drop in strength of all the industries studied. However, since 2010 the industry has
made a remarkable comeback, primarily due to oil prices. Even though the industry still struggles with
a negative balance metric of 0.12 (third lowest after telecommunications and household products), its
positive change in balance is unprecedented in other industries.
At the same time, the industry has become less resilient. In the post-recessionary period, the industry
dropped 33% in resiliency, scoring 0.89 and landing third after household products and automotive.
For most companies, this stems from the lack of capability to translate price changes to action in the
value chain. The industry is very price sensitive, and the planning systems are largely based on
volume. The measures taken to drive growth during the recession took several years to dramatically
improve balance. The Supply Chain Index for the 2006-2016 period is shown in Table 4a, while the
post-recessionary analysis of 2010-2016 is seen in Table 4b.
Page 13
Table 4a. Supply Chain Index for the Chemical Industry for the Period of 2006-2016
Page 14
Table 4b. Supply Chain Index for the Chemical Industry for the Period of 2010-2016
Page 15
To visualize the differences in the factor rankings, we show orbit charts of a company that performed
well against a company with average performance. Since balance calculations are based on annual
growth and return on invested capital, here we share those metrics for DowDuPont vs. BASF. BASF
is a stronger performer than DowDuPont, but DowDuPont is driving more improvement. Note the
decline in performance for BASF in 2016 on inventory turns and the loss in growth.
Figure 5. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for DowDuPont and BASF (2010-2016)
Page 16
Figure 6. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for DowDuPont and BASF (2010-2016)
Page 17
Food
In contrast to the Chemical industry, the Food industry is a higher-performing industry on the Supply
Chain Index, driving higher levels of improvement. Post-recession, consumers wanting less and less
packaged foods have rejected products from the big food manufacturers, driving declining growth
rates. Driving improvement in declining markets is difficult. Overall, General Mills balanced
improvement and performance while companies like Kellogg and Danone have both taken a
downturn on the Index. In contrast, Mondelฤ“z has made significant progress on strength, but severely
underperforms on balance and resiliency. The company with the best performance and levels of
improvement is General Mills.
Fresh Del Monte Produce made a slight trade-off in resiliency for a vast improvement in balance
and strength. The Supply Chain Index for the Food Industry is shown in Tables 5a and 5b.
Page 18
Table 5a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Food Companies for 2006-2016
Page 19
Table 5b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Food Companies for 2010-2016
In figures 7 and 8 we contrast the performance of Kellogg and Danone. Notice the backward slide of
both companies on the balanced portfolio.
Page 20
Figure 7. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Kellogg and Danone (2010-2016)
Figure 8. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Kellogg and Danone (2010-2016)
Page 21
Household Products
The Household Products industry, with a decline in growth, also struggles to balance asset strategies
with a negative impact on the balance ranking. The rise in complexity in the product portfolio over the
course of the last decade took a toll.
Despite the slight drop in the strength ranking, Household Products is the strongest supply chain (rate
of improvement at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin) of the five analyzed.
In improvement, Beiersdorf has managed to remain in the top three despite a slight drop in balance
and resiliency. Procter & Gamble (P&G) remained at the very bottom of the list, continuing with wide
swings at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin, and thus scoring badly on the
resiliency factor. Clorox is ranked slightly higher than Procter & Gamble, similarly struggling with
regaining balance and improving strength.
Over the past seven years, growth has slowed for P&G. In addition, the leadership of P&G has
thrown the supply chain out of balance with a focus on inventory with a detrimental impact in costs as
compared to others in the peer group. This has a negative impact on the rankings.
Table 6a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Household Product Companies (2006-2016)
Page 22
Table 6b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Food Companies (2010-2016)
Note Church & Dwightโ€™s improvement. P&Gโ€™s performance degraded with the acquisition of Gillette
and only rebounded with the divestitures in 2015-2016. In Figures 9 and 10 we contrast the
performance of Church & Dwight and P&G.
Figure 9. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Church & Dwight and P&G (2010-2016)
Page 23
Figure 10. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Church & Dwight and P&G (2010-2016)
Page 24
Pharmaceutical
Overall, the Pharmaceutical industry, a laggard in supply chain management, is driving the fastest
rate of improvement of the six industries in this report. The opportunity is great. The Pharmaceutical
industry carries three times the level of inventory than the prior two industries, and they have been
slow to adopt more advanced supply chain practices. We often see that companies with high margins
have less drive to get serious about supply chain management. Their progress in supply chain
management lags household products. High operating margin present within the industry has enabled
pharmaceutical companies to prosper with less mature supply chain practices. However, recent
changes in the market, with the rise of generic brands, and slowing growth create a different
environment. As a result, we see more and more pharmaceutical companies getting serious on
driving supply chain excellence.
Post-recession, the pharmaceutical industry became noticeably more resilient, but dropped slightly on
balance and strength. Biogen and Novo Nordisk maintained their leadership as the top two. Abbott
Laboratories has plummeted from the 7th place to 30th place, dropping most significantly on balance.
Johnson & Johnson also lost its position, experiencing the most drastic drop in balance in the
industry.
Remarkably, Merck and Company has moved from the third quartile to first place. It lost slightly on
strength but came back strong on balance and resiliency. This is a good example of a company
driving improvement when there is a lot of improvement to be made.
Page 25
Table 7a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Pharmaceutical Companies (2006-2016)
Page 26
Table 7b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Pharmaceutical Companies (2010-2016)
Page 27
Our pharmaceutical orbit chart examples compare Novo Nordisk and Abbott Laboratories. Novo
Nordisk leads the peer group in the resiliency ranking for 2010-2016. Note the stark difference in the
charts.
Figure 11. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Novo Nordisk and Abbott Laboratories (2010-2016)
Page 28
Figure 12. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Novo Nordisk and Abbott Laboratories (2010-2016)
Page 29
Telecommunications
The Telecommunications industry scored the worst in terms of the Supply Chain Index. Due to market
pressures, the industry overall lost heavily on both balance and strength rankings.
Zayo Group Holdings, Harris, and Belden remained in the top 5. ZTE, Sprint, and Vodafone stayed
within the bottom tier of the ranking. Motorola has moved from the upper middle of the ranking (11th
place) to 3rd place, losing in resiliency, but improving significantly in balance and strength. Finisar
made the most progress, climbing to the very top thanks to its remarkable improvements in strength
and resiliency. The winner for performance and improvement is Cisco Systems.
Table 8a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Telecommunications Companies (2006-2016)
Page 30
Table 8b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Pharmaceutical Companies (2010-2016)
Here we compare the performance of Cisco Systems and Motorola across two orbit charts. While
Cisco Systems has balanced performance and improvement, Motorola fell and then had to drive
improvement to regain ground.
Page 31
Figure 13. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Cisco Systems and Motorola (2010-2016)
Figure 14. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Cisco Systems and Motorola (2010-2016)
Page 32
Recommendations
Our goal is to help companies drive a deeper conversation in the boardroom on supply chain
improvement. Metrics comparisons are complex and should never be viewed solely in a spreadsheet.
Instead, they need to be viewed as a balanced portfolio.
A mistake many companies make is viewing these metrics in isolation through singular views.
Instead, they need to be plotted, based on year-over-year trends, using ratios to understand the
trade-offs on the Effective Frontier. In the process of evaluating progress, a company needs to be
evaluated within its own industry sector, not across the board. Within this evaluation, the questions
should be:
โ€ข Is the company driving year-over-year progress on a balanced portfolio of metrics?
โ€ข Is there strength against the peer group?
โ€ข Is this progress reliable with predictable results?
Driving supply chain improvement is tough work. The goal of the Supply Chain Index is to provide a
measuring stick for supply chain leaders.
Conclusion
The supply chain is a complex system with interrelated metrics. We believe that supply chain
excellence is defined by driving improvement while outperforming peers. The higher the level of
performance, the more difficult it is to drive improvement. On the journey, each company has a
different potential. This is driven by product categories, labor inputs, market share, commodity
markets and geographic reach. While the supply chain leader cannot change many of these factors,
they can improve the ability of the organization to drive year-over-year improvements.
Page 33
Appendix: Detailing the Mathematical
Calculations Behind the Index Ranking
The specific methodology and development of the three factors is described below.
Strength
Consider a scatter plot of operating margin and inventory turns for a specific company. Let iOM
denote the operating margin of the ith time period (e.g. ith year), iIT denote the inventory turns of the
ith time period and n denote the total number of periods under consideration. The strength measure
(S) is defined as
๏ƒท๏ƒท
๏ƒธ
๏ƒถ
๏ƒง๏ƒง
๏ƒจ
๏ƒฆ โˆ’
+
โˆ’
โˆ’
=
1
1
1
1
1
1
IT
ITIT
OM
OMOM
n
S nn
The denominator reflects that there are n-1 differences between n time periods. Figure A depicts the
intersection of operating margin and inventory turns for an example company. The difference in
operating margin and inventory turns between the first and last time period is shown.
Figure A. Inventory Turns and Operating Margin Intersection for an Example Company
Page 34
Resiliency
Consider a scatter plot of operating margin and inventory turns for a specific company. Let dij denote
the Euclidean distance between a pair of points i and j and let m denote the total number of pairs.
The resiliency measure (R) is defined as the mean distance of all possible pairs of points at the
intesection. That is,
๏ƒฅ๏ƒฅ๏€พ
=
i ij
ijd
m
R
1
Figure B shows an example of the opertaing margin and inventory turns intersection. Table A shows
the distances between every possible pair of points at the intersection. The resiliency is calculated
from the mean of the distance values and is equal to 0.7335. (A higher resiliency score indicates a
lack of resiliency while a small value means that the company had tight control of the metrics
portfolio.)
Figure B. Inventory Turns and Operating Margin Intersection for an Example Company
Table A. Euclidean Distances for an Example Company.
0.013255
0.18865 0.17549
1.061544 1.0484 0.872912
0.901407 0.888264 0.712778 0.16014
0.766595 0.753434 0.577946 0.295086 0.135114
1.630622 1.617476 1.441988 0.569077 0.729216 0.864097
Page 35
Balance
Consider a scatter plot of revenue growth and return on invested capital for a specific company. The
balance measure (B) is defined similar to the strength measure but now at the intersection of revenue
growth and return on invested capital. Let iREV denote the revenue growth of the ith time period,
iROIC denote the return on invested capital of the ith time period and n denote the total number of
periods under consideration. Balance is defined as
๏ƒท๏ƒท
๏ƒธ
๏ƒถ
๏ƒง๏ƒง
๏ƒจ
๏ƒฆ โˆ’
+
โˆ’
โˆ’
=
1
1
1
1
1
1
ROIC
ROICROIC
REV
REVREV
n
B nn
.
Alternative Measures Considered
Principal Components Analysis (PCA) is a traditional method to summarize multi-dimensional data.
We considered measures commonly applied with PCA based on eigenvalues and eigenvectors. (e.g.,
the condition index, percentage of variance explained by the first principal component). Although
these measures were reasonable they did not distinguish between orbit plots that were visually
different as well as simpler approaches. We also considered other measures based on the distances
(e.g., sum, maximum, minimum and the coefficient of variation of the distances). The mean distance
was finally selected to measure the compactness of a set of points. In fact, a similar measure called
cohesion is frequently used in cluster analysis to measure the compactness of a set of points. Rather
than taking the sum of distances (as in cohesion), we consider the mean to account for the potentially
different number of points for each company.
Outlier Determination
In order to ensure consistency of the financial data used, we eliminated companies who were
identified as extreme outliers in terms of balance, strength, and/or resiliency within their respective
peer groups. To accomplish accurate outlier identification, we employed the Tukey boxplot method - a
histogram-like method for calculating statistically fitting upper and lower bounds for each data set.
The initial data set is first divided into four quartiles. The interquartile range, abbreviated IQR, is
calculated as the difference between quartiles three and one: IQR = Q3 โ€“ Q1. Lower and upper
bounds are calculated as L=Q1 โ€“1.5ร—IQR and U=Q3 + 1.5ร—IQR respectively. Data points located
below the lower bound or above the upper bound are outliers. (Companies identified as outliers are
highlighted in blue in the report tables.)
Page 36
Open Content Research
This report is shared using the principles of Open Content research. It is intended for you to read and
share to drive improved supply chain decisions. Please share this data freely within your company
and across your industry. All we ask for in return is proper attribution when you use the materials. We
publish under the Creative Commons License Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United
States and you will find our citation policy here.
Other Reports about the Index
Supply Chain Metrics That Matter: Improving Supply Chain Resiliency
Supply Chains to Admire 2017
Page 37
About Supply Chain Insights LLC
Founded in February, 2012 by Lora Cecere, Supply Chain Insights LLC is focused on delivering
independent, actionable, and objective advice for supply chain leaders. If you need to know
which practices and technologies make the biggest difference to corporate performance, turn to us.
We are a company dedicated to this research. We help you understand supply chain trends, evolving
technologies and which metrics matter.
About Lora Cecere
Lora Cecere (twitter ID @lcecere) is the Founder of Supply Chain Insights LLC and
the author of popular enterprise software blog Supply Chain Shaman currently read
by 15,000 supply chain professionals. She also writes as a Linkedin Influencer and
is a contributor to Forbes. She has written six books. The first book, Bricks Matter,
(co-authored with Charlie Chase) published in 2012. The second book, The
Shamanโ€™s Journal 2014, published in September 2014; the third book, Supply
Chain Metrics That Matter, published in December 2014; the fourth book, The
Shamanโ€™s Journal 2015, published in August 2015, the fifth book, The Shamanโ€™s
Journal 2016, published in June 2016 and the sixth book, The Shamanโ€™s Journal 2017, published in
July 2017.
With over 16 years as a research analyst with AMR Research, Altimeter Group, and Gartner
Group and now as the Founder of Supply Chain Insights, Lora understands supply chain. She has
worked with over 600 companies on their supply chain strategy and is a frequent speaker on the
evolution of supply chain processes and technologies. Her research is designed for the early adopter
seeking first mover advantage.
About Alina Beskrovna
Alina is a Research Associate with Supply Chain Insights. Born in the Ukraine,
Alina was previously a financial strategy developer for a former Financial Minister
of Estonia and served as the President of the US Embassy Youth Council
Ukraine. She also worked as an International Business Analyst for Lehigh Small
Business Development Center.
Alina holds an M.Sc. degree in Applied Mathematics from Kyiv-Mohyla Academy
and an MBA in Finance from Lehigh University. At Lehigh, Alina was a recipient of
a prestigious Global Village-Iacocca Scholarship. At Supply Chain Insights, Alina
researches and develops the Supply Chains to Admire report and contributes to the monthly
publication of the Supply Chain Metrics That Matter Series. In her spare time, Alina enjoys active
outdoor activities, especially hiking. Her goal is to hike all the US National Parks in the next 5 years.

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The Supply Chain Index - 2018

  • 1. The Supply Chain Index Gauging Supply Chain Improvement 6/15/2018 By Lora Cecere Founder and CEO Supply Chain Insights LLC and Alina Beskrovna Research Associate Supply Chain Insights LLC
  • 2. Page 2 Contents Executive Summary Overview of the Supply Chain Index Balance Strength Resiliency The Definition of the Index: Putting It All Together Visualizing the Patterns Industry-Specific Results Automotive Chemical Food Household Products Pharmaceutical Telecommunications Recommendations Conclusion Appendix: Mathematical Calculations Behind the Index Ranking Open Content Research Other Reports about the Index About Supply Chain Insights LLC About Lora Cecere About Alina Beskrovna 3 4 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 12 17 21 24 29 32 32 33 36 36 37 37 37
  • 3. Page 3 Executive Summary The supply chain is a complex, nonlinear system. Supply chain excellence is a balancing act of competing priorities of growth, cost, inventory and asset strategies. The Supply Chain Index is a methodology to measure supply chain improvement of this metrics portfolio as shown in Figure 1. We term this the Effective Frontier. Figure 1. The Effective Frontier Improvement happens most quickly for companies with the most to gain. As companies become more effective in balancing supply chain metrics, it becomes harder and harder to drive improvement. Supply chain excellence is defined here as outperforming the peer group while driving supply chain improvement at a faster rate than the industry. Today, this is tough. At the beginning of the last decade, companies were able to make rapid improvement on the Effective Frontier. This was the dawn of business-to-business computing, the building of the global supply chain, and the automation of supply chain processes. Now the story is different. As will be seen in this report, for nine out of ten companies, supply chain progress is stalled. To help companies gauge improvement, we developed the Supply Chain Index methodology. At its core, the Supply Chain Index is a ranking of supply chain improvement across a balanced portfolio of metrics, measured over time, within an industry peer group. In this report, we apply the methodology to six industry sectors (automotive, chemical, food, household products, pharmaceutical, and telecommunications) for two time periods, 2006-2016 and 2010-2016. The first looks at improvement across the Great Recession and post-recession periods, and the second shorter period evaluates post-recession results. As will be seen, improvement in metrics results was faster pre-recession when supply chains were smaller and more regional.
  • 4. Page 4 Overview of the Supply Chain Index The Supply Chain Indexโ„ข is based on the calculation of three factorsโ€”balance, strength, and resiliencyโ€”based on patterns at the intersection of the four metrics of the Effective Frontier: Growth, Operating Margin, Inventory Turns and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC). Each of the three factors contributes one-third to the final Index ranking. 1) Balance: The vector trajectory of the pattern between year-over-year growth and Return on Invested Capital. 2) Strength: The vector trajectory of the pattern between operating margin and inventory turns. 3) Resiliency: The tightness of the pattern at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin. Balance Balance in the supply chain is a constant struggle. The two metrics which comprise our balance measure are Year-over-Year Revenue Growth and Return on Invested Capital. Return on Invested Capital is a less well-known metric compared to Return on Assets (ROA). We use ROIC because it is a broader metric that encompasses all assets, while Return on Assets has a narrower focus. Our research indicates that ROIC has a better correlation with stock market capitalization and provides a broad perspective on cash flow generation and profitability based on shareholder equity. The formula used for ROIC is: ๐‘…๐‘’๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘Ÿ๐‘› ๐‘œ๐‘› ๐ผ๐‘›๐‘ฃ๐‘’๐‘ ๐‘ก๐‘’๐‘‘ ๐ถ๐‘Ž๐‘๐‘–๐‘ก๐‘Ž๐‘™ = ๐‘‚๐‘๐‘’๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘›๐‘” ๐ผ๐‘›๐‘๐‘œ๐‘š๐‘’ + ๐ผ๐‘›๐‘๐‘œ๐‘š๐‘’ ๐‘‡๐‘Ž๐‘ฅ ๐‘‡๐‘œ๐‘ก๐‘Ž๐‘™ ๐‘‡๐‘œ๐‘ก๐‘Ž๐‘™ ๐‘†โ„Ž๐‘Ž๐‘Ÿ๐‘’โ„Ž๐‘œ๐‘™๐‘‘๐‘’๐‘Ÿโ€ฒ ๐‘ ๐ธ๐‘ž๐‘ข๐‘–๐‘ก๐‘ฆ The goal is to drive higher returns than the market rate of the cost of capital. The balance measure in the Supply Chain Index is a mathematical calculation of the vector trajectory of the pattern between Growth and ROIC for a specific time period (see the Appendix for more details on the formula). To understand this measurement, imagine a four-quadrant grid from high school algebra with Growth and ROIC on the two axes. In our calculation, the overall trajectory of this vector from Year 0 (2006) to Year 10 (2016) is simplified into a single value which represents the companyโ€™s ability to balance year-over-year Growth and ROIC. Companies that were able to drive improvement in both metrics score the best, while companies that deteriorated in both metrics do the worst. Strength A successful supply chain is a strong one. Supply chain leaders strive to deliver year-over-year improvements. There is tension between operating margin and inventory turns. For most supply chain leaders, these are some of the most important measures of their performance. Not only are they important,
  • 5. Page 5 they are also more directly influenced by supply chain decisions than broader corporate metrics. It is for this reason they are the two components of our strength factor in the Supply Chain Index. The strength measure in the Supply Chain Index is a mathematical calculation of the vector trajectory of the pattern between inventory turns and operating margin for the period of 2006 to 2016 (see the Appendix for more details on the formula). Like the balance factor, imagine a four-quadrant grid from high school algebra. Inventory Turns and Operating Margin performance are graphed on an annual basis from an origin point representing performance on the two metrics at Year 0 (2006). The overall trajectory of this vector from Year 0 (2006) to Year 16 (2016) is simplified into a single value which represents strength. Improvement on both metrics simultaneously is graphically shown as movement to the upper right quadrant with increasing values for both inventory turns and operating margin over the period. Resiliency Resiliency is an adjective easily tossed around as one of the key qualities of a successful supply chain in todayโ€™s volatile world. However, the concept of resiliency lacks an industry definition. It is more difficult to define and there is rarely clarity among stakeholders as to what resiliency is or should be. As we plotted chart after chart at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin, we could see that some supply chains had very tight patterns at the intersection of these two metrics while other companies had wild swings. We wanted to find a way to measure the variation. After evaluating several methods to determine the pattern in the orbit chart, we settled upon the Euclidean Mean Distance between the points. These results were published in our March 2014 report: Supply Chain Metrics That Matter: Improving Supply Chain Resiliency, where we defined resiliency as the tightness of the pattern at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin (see the Appendix for more details on the formula). These metrics, critical for any supply chain, are components of both the Strength and Resiliency metrics in our Supply Chain Index model. As shown in Table 1, the resiliency of the supply chain varies considerably by industry. Household products is the most resilient and telecommunications the least. Automotive lacked resiliency during the recession, but improved resiliency post-recession. It is important to note, and remember while reviewing the data that follows, that a lower number for resiliency is an indicator of a tighter (as in better) pattern and greater reliability in results over the time period. The resiliency score is the mean value. Telecommunications has the highest value and struggled the most with resiliency.
  • 6. Page 6 Table 1. Supply Chain Resiliency by Industry
  • 7. Page 7 The Definition of the Index: Putting It All Together Each of the factors of the Supply Chain Indexโ€”Balance, Strength and Resiliencyโ€”comprises one- third of the final ranking. The values are compiled in a matrix (shown in Table 2), which is created for each industry sector peer group across the time periods which are analyzed. The Index ranking is calculated following these three steps: 1. Rank the companies within each factor. 2. Calculate the average ranking for each company across the factors. 3. Rank this average ranking within the peer group. This is the final Index ranking. It is important to note that in cases where a company was identified as being an outlier in terms of balance, strength, and/or resiliency within their respective peer groups, it is removed from the Index calculation (see the Appendix for details on outlier determination). Table 2. Supply Chain Index Ranking System
  • 8. Page 8 Visualizing the Patterns Since the Supply Chain Index is based on the intersection of metrics over time, we have found an orbit chart to be the best method for visualizing the patterns. An orbit chart plots year-over-year performance on two metrics (see the example of The TJX Companies, Inc. in Figure 2) and enables the visualization of a pattern. The โ€œBest Scenarioโ€ is indicated in red in the upper-right corner of the plot. The metricsโ€™ averages for the period are shown in the box under the TJX stock symbol. In this example, it is clear TJX has made great progress towards the best scenario. However, most companies have not. Figure 2. Example of an Orbit Chart While progress may be driven on a project basis, or within a division, it is becoming more and more difficult to drive a positive trend at this intersection. Companies making the most progress have a holistic definition of the end-to-end supply chain and are strong in the use of analytics. Strong skills in supply chain planning help companies to translate supply chain strategy into feasible trade-offs. It is a constant balancing act.
  • 9. Page 9 Industry-Specific Results The Supply Chain Index, in this report, is applied to six separate industry sector peer groups: automotive; chemical; food; household products; pharmaceutical; and telecommunications. We measure two time periods, 2006-2016 and 2010-2016, in order to examine relative improvement during and after the recession. Automotive The Automotive industry struggled to regain balance and maintain momentum after the economic downturn in 2007. As can be seen in Table 3a, Tesla Inc. is an obvious outlier, scoring 200 times the industry average on resiliency. As a result, it was removed from the Supply Chain Index calculations. Ford continued to lag at the bottom of the charts. The company struggles to drive supply chain improvement. Table 3a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Automotive Companies (2006-2016) The company driving the greatest improvement for 2006-2016 is Daimler while is Suzuki had the greatest improvement in the post-recession period (shown in Table 3b). Subaru outperformed in second place over the longer time horizon, while Toyota drove higher levels of improvement in the post-recessionary period.
  • 10. Page 10 Table 3b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Automotive Companies 2010-2016 Ford, like most of the Automotive industry, is losing ground year-over year. The company is a laggard. These trends can be seen in the two orbit charts below. Note the positive trend of continuous improvement for Suzuki Motors. Note that while Ford outperforms on inventory turns and operating margin, they are losing ground on the performance metrics and lack resiliency (shown by the wild swings). Suzuki is gaining ground against the industry peer group but is underperforming against Ford. It is hard for a company that is outperforming their peer group to drive improvement.
  • 11. Page 11 Figure 3. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Suzuki Motors and Ford (2010-2016) Figure 4. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Suzuki Motors and Ford (2010-2016)
  • 12. Page 12 Chemical Sitting four to five layers back in the supply chain, the chemical industry struggled to maintain momentum through the last economic downturn and drive recovery. In the last decade, costs and waste were pushed backwards in the value chain by downstream trading partners, creating a barrier for the chemical manufacturer. Of the industries profiled in the report, the chemical industry struggled the most to remain strong. It scored the lowest value in the industry average for the balance factor of -0.05 and experienced the most significant drop in strength of all the industries studied. However, since 2010 the industry has made a remarkable comeback, primarily due to oil prices. Even though the industry still struggles with a negative balance metric of 0.12 (third lowest after telecommunications and household products), its positive change in balance is unprecedented in other industries. At the same time, the industry has become less resilient. In the post-recessionary period, the industry dropped 33% in resiliency, scoring 0.89 and landing third after household products and automotive. For most companies, this stems from the lack of capability to translate price changes to action in the value chain. The industry is very price sensitive, and the planning systems are largely based on volume. The measures taken to drive growth during the recession took several years to dramatically improve balance. The Supply Chain Index for the 2006-2016 period is shown in Table 4a, while the post-recessionary analysis of 2010-2016 is seen in Table 4b.
  • 13. Page 13 Table 4a. Supply Chain Index for the Chemical Industry for the Period of 2006-2016
  • 14. Page 14 Table 4b. Supply Chain Index for the Chemical Industry for the Period of 2010-2016
  • 15. Page 15 To visualize the differences in the factor rankings, we show orbit charts of a company that performed well against a company with average performance. Since balance calculations are based on annual growth and return on invested capital, here we share those metrics for DowDuPont vs. BASF. BASF is a stronger performer than DowDuPont, but DowDuPont is driving more improvement. Note the decline in performance for BASF in 2016 on inventory turns and the loss in growth. Figure 5. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for DowDuPont and BASF (2010-2016)
  • 16. Page 16 Figure 6. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for DowDuPont and BASF (2010-2016)
  • 17. Page 17 Food In contrast to the Chemical industry, the Food industry is a higher-performing industry on the Supply Chain Index, driving higher levels of improvement. Post-recession, consumers wanting less and less packaged foods have rejected products from the big food manufacturers, driving declining growth rates. Driving improvement in declining markets is difficult. Overall, General Mills balanced improvement and performance while companies like Kellogg and Danone have both taken a downturn on the Index. In contrast, Mondelฤ“z has made significant progress on strength, but severely underperforms on balance and resiliency. The company with the best performance and levels of improvement is General Mills. Fresh Del Monte Produce made a slight trade-off in resiliency for a vast improvement in balance and strength. The Supply Chain Index for the Food Industry is shown in Tables 5a and 5b.
  • 18. Page 18 Table 5a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Food Companies for 2006-2016
  • 19. Page 19 Table 5b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Food Companies for 2010-2016 In figures 7 and 8 we contrast the performance of Kellogg and Danone. Notice the backward slide of both companies on the balanced portfolio.
  • 20. Page 20 Figure 7. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Kellogg and Danone (2010-2016) Figure 8. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Kellogg and Danone (2010-2016)
  • 21. Page 21 Household Products The Household Products industry, with a decline in growth, also struggles to balance asset strategies with a negative impact on the balance ranking. The rise in complexity in the product portfolio over the course of the last decade took a toll. Despite the slight drop in the strength ranking, Household Products is the strongest supply chain (rate of improvement at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin) of the five analyzed. In improvement, Beiersdorf has managed to remain in the top three despite a slight drop in balance and resiliency. Procter & Gamble (P&G) remained at the very bottom of the list, continuing with wide swings at the intersection of inventory turns and operating margin, and thus scoring badly on the resiliency factor. Clorox is ranked slightly higher than Procter & Gamble, similarly struggling with regaining balance and improving strength. Over the past seven years, growth has slowed for P&G. In addition, the leadership of P&G has thrown the supply chain out of balance with a focus on inventory with a detrimental impact in costs as compared to others in the peer group. This has a negative impact on the rankings. Table 6a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Household Product Companies (2006-2016)
  • 22. Page 22 Table 6b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Food Companies (2010-2016) Note Church & Dwightโ€™s improvement. P&Gโ€™s performance degraded with the acquisition of Gillette and only rebounded with the divestitures in 2015-2016. In Figures 9 and 10 we contrast the performance of Church & Dwight and P&G. Figure 9. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Church & Dwight and P&G (2010-2016)
  • 23. Page 23 Figure 10. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Church & Dwight and P&G (2010-2016)
  • 24. Page 24 Pharmaceutical Overall, the Pharmaceutical industry, a laggard in supply chain management, is driving the fastest rate of improvement of the six industries in this report. The opportunity is great. The Pharmaceutical industry carries three times the level of inventory than the prior two industries, and they have been slow to adopt more advanced supply chain practices. We often see that companies with high margins have less drive to get serious about supply chain management. Their progress in supply chain management lags household products. High operating margin present within the industry has enabled pharmaceutical companies to prosper with less mature supply chain practices. However, recent changes in the market, with the rise of generic brands, and slowing growth create a different environment. As a result, we see more and more pharmaceutical companies getting serious on driving supply chain excellence. Post-recession, the pharmaceutical industry became noticeably more resilient, but dropped slightly on balance and strength. Biogen and Novo Nordisk maintained their leadership as the top two. Abbott Laboratories has plummeted from the 7th place to 30th place, dropping most significantly on balance. Johnson & Johnson also lost its position, experiencing the most drastic drop in balance in the industry. Remarkably, Merck and Company has moved from the third quartile to first place. It lost slightly on strength but came back strong on balance and resiliency. This is a good example of a company driving improvement when there is a lot of improvement to be made.
  • 25. Page 25 Table 7a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Pharmaceutical Companies (2006-2016)
  • 26. Page 26 Table 7b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Pharmaceutical Companies (2010-2016)
  • 27. Page 27 Our pharmaceutical orbit chart examples compare Novo Nordisk and Abbott Laboratories. Novo Nordisk leads the peer group in the resiliency ranking for 2010-2016. Note the stark difference in the charts. Figure 11. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Novo Nordisk and Abbott Laboratories (2010-2016)
  • 28. Page 28 Figure 12. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Novo Nordisk and Abbott Laboratories (2010-2016)
  • 29. Page 29 Telecommunications The Telecommunications industry scored the worst in terms of the Supply Chain Index. Due to market pressures, the industry overall lost heavily on both balance and strength rankings. Zayo Group Holdings, Harris, and Belden remained in the top 5. ZTE, Sprint, and Vodafone stayed within the bottom tier of the ranking. Motorola has moved from the upper middle of the ranking (11th place) to 3rd place, losing in resiliency, but improving significantly in balance and strength. Finisar made the most progress, climbing to the very top thanks to its remarkable improvements in strength and resiliency. The winner for performance and improvement is Cisco Systems. Table 8a. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Telecommunications Companies (2006-2016)
  • 30. Page 30 Table 8b. Balance, Strength and Resiliency Rankings for Pharmaceutical Companies (2010-2016) Here we compare the performance of Cisco Systems and Motorola across two orbit charts. While Cisco Systems has balanced performance and improvement, Motorola fell and then had to drive improvement to regain ground.
  • 31. Page 31 Figure 13. Revenue Growth vs. Return on Invested Capital for Cisco Systems and Motorola (2010-2016) Figure 14. Inventory Turns vs. Operating Margin for Cisco Systems and Motorola (2010-2016)
  • 32. Page 32 Recommendations Our goal is to help companies drive a deeper conversation in the boardroom on supply chain improvement. Metrics comparisons are complex and should never be viewed solely in a spreadsheet. Instead, they need to be viewed as a balanced portfolio. A mistake many companies make is viewing these metrics in isolation through singular views. Instead, they need to be plotted, based on year-over-year trends, using ratios to understand the trade-offs on the Effective Frontier. In the process of evaluating progress, a company needs to be evaluated within its own industry sector, not across the board. Within this evaluation, the questions should be: โ€ข Is the company driving year-over-year progress on a balanced portfolio of metrics? โ€ข Is there strength against the peer group? โ€ข Is this progress reliable with predictable results? Driving supply chain improvement is tough work. The goal of the Supply Chain Index is to provide a measuring stick for supply chain leaders. Conclusion The supply chain is a complex system with interrelated metrics. We believe that supply chain excellence is defined by driving improvement while outperforming peers. The higher the level of performance, the more difficult it is to drive improvement. On the journey, each company has a different potential. This is driven by product categories, labor inputs, market share, commodity markets and geographic reach. While the supply chain leader cannot change many of these factors, they can improve the ability of the organization to drive year-over-year improvements.
  • 33. Page 33 Appendix: Detailing the Mathematical Calculations Behind the Index Ranking The specific methodology and development of the three factors is described below. Strength Consider a scatter plot of operating margin and inventory turns for a specific company. Let iOM denote the operating margin of the ith time period (e.g. ith year), iIT denote the inventory turns of the ith time period and n denote the total number of periods under consideration. The strength measure (S) is defined as ๏ƒท๏ƒท ๏ƒธ ๏ƒถ ๏ƒง๏ƒง ๏ƒจ ๏ƒฆ โˆ’ + โˆ’ โˆ’ = 1 1 1 1 1 1 IT ITIT OM OMOM n S nn The denominator reflects that there are n-1 differences between n time periods. Figure A depicts the intersection of operating margin and inventory turns for an example company. The difference in operating margin and inventory turns between the first and last time period is shown. Figure A. Inventory Turns and Operating Margin Intersection for an Example Company
  • 34. Page 34 Resiliency Consider a scatter plot of operating margin and inventory turns for a specific company. Let dij denote the Euclidean distance between a pair of points i and j and let m denote the total number of pairs. The resiliency measure (R) is defined as the mean distance of all possible pairs of points at the intesection. That is, ๏ƒฅ๏ƒฅ๏€พ = i ij ijd m R 1 Figure B shows an example of the opertaing margin and inventory turns intersection. Table A shows the distances between every possible pair of points at the intersection. The resiliency is calculated from the mean of the distance values and is equal to 0.7335. (A higher resiliency score indicates a lack of resiliency while a small value means that the company had tight control of the metrics portfolio.) Figure B. Inventory Turns and Operating Margin Intersection for an Example Company Table A. Euclidean Distances for an Example Company. 0.013255 0.18865 0.17549 1.061544 1.0484 0.872912 0.901407 0.888264 0.712778 0.16014 0.766595 0.753434 0.577946 0.295086 0.135114 1.630622 1.617476 1.441988 0.569077 0.729216 0.864097
  • 35. Page 35 Balance Consider a scatter plot of revenue growth and return on invested capital for a specific company. The balance measure (B) is defined similar to the strength measure but now at the intersection of revenue growth and return on invested capital. Let iREV denote the revenue growth of the ith time period, iROIC denote the return on invested capital of the ith time period and n denote the total number of periods under consideration. Balance is defined as ๏ƒท๏ƒท ๏ƒธ ๏ƒถ ๏ƒง๏ƒง ๏ƒจ ๏ƒฆ โˆ’ + โˆ’ โˆ’ = 1 1 1 1 1 1 ROIC ROICROIC REV REVREV n B nn . Alternative Measures Considered Principal Components Analysis (PCA) is a traditional method to summarize multi-dimensional data. We considered measures commonly applied with PCA based on eigenvalues and eigenvectors. (e.g., the condition index, percentage of variance explained by the first principal component). Although these measures were reasonable they did not distinguish between orbit plots that were visually different as well as simpler approaches. We also considered other measures based on the distances (e.g., sum, maximum, minimum and the coefficient of variation of the distances). The mean distance was finally selected to measure the compactness of a set of points. In fact, a similar measure called cohesion is frequently used in cluster analysis to measure the compactness of a set of points. Rather than taking the sum of distances (as in cohesion), we consider the mean to account for the potentially different number of points for each company. Outlier Determination In order to ensure consistency of the financial data used, we eliminated companies who were identified as extreme outliers in terms of balance, strength, and/or resiliency within their respective peer groups. To accomplish accurate outlier identification, we employed the Tukey boxplot method - a histogram-like method for calculating statistically fitting upper and lower bounds for each data set. The initial data set is first divided into four quartiles. The interquartile range, abbreviated IQR, is calculated as the difference between quartiles three and one: IQR = Q3 โ€“ Q1. Lower and upper bounds are calculated as L=Q1 โ€“1.5ร—IQR and U=Q3 + 1.5ร—IQR respectively. Data points located below the lower bound or above the upper bound are outliers. (Companies identified as outliers are highlighted in blue in the report tables.)
  • 36. Page 36 Open Content Research This report is shared using the principles of Open Content research. It is intended for you to read and share to drive improved supply chain decisions. Please share this data freely within your company and across your industry. All we ask for in return is proper attribution when you use the materials. We publish under the Creative Commons License Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United States and you will find our citation policy here. Other Reports about the Index Supply Chain Metrics That Matter: Improving Supply Chain Resiliency Supply Chains to Admire 2017
  • 37. Page 37 About Supply Chain Insights LLC Founded in February, 2012 by Lora Cecere, Supply Chain Insights LLC is focused on delivering independent, actionable, and objective advice for supply chain leaders. If you need to know which practices and technologies make the biggest difference to corporate performance, turn to us. We are a company dedicated to this research. We help you understand supply chain trends, evolving technologies and which metrics matter. About Lora Cecere Lora Cecere (twitter ID @lcecere) is the Founder of Supply Chain Insights LLC and the author of popular enterprise software blog Supply Chain Shaman currently read by 15,000 supply chain professionals. She also writes as a Linkedin Influencer and is a contributor to Forbes. She has written six books. The first book, Bricks Matter, (co-authored with Charlie Chase) published in 2012. The second book, The Shamanโ€™s Journal 2014, published in September 2014; the third book, Supply Chain Metrics That Matter, published in December 2014; the fourth book, The Shamanโ€™s Journal 2015, published in August 2015, the fifth book, The Shamanโ€™s Journal 2016, published in June 2016 and the sixth book, The Shamanโ€™s Journal 2017, published in July 2017. With over 16 years as a research analyst with AMR Research, Altimeter Group, and Gartner Group and now as the Founder of Supply Chain Insights, Lora understands supply chain. She has worked with over 600 companies on their supply chain strategy and is a frequent speaker on the evolution of supply chain processes and technologies. Her research is designed for the early adopter seeking first mover advantage. About Alina Beskrovna Alina is a Research Associate with Supply Chain Insights. Born in the Ukraine, Alina was previously a financial strategy developer for a former Financial Minister of Estonia and served as the President of the US Embassy Youth Council Ukraine. She also worked as an International Business Analyst for Lehigh Small Business Development Center. Alina holds an M.Sc. degree in Applied Mathematics from Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and an MBA in Finance from Lehigh University. At Lehigh, Alina was a recipient of a prestigious Global Village-Iacocca Scholarship. At Supply Chain Insights, Alina researches and develops the Supply Chains to Admire report and contributes to the monthly publication of the Supply Chain Metrics That Matter Series. In her spare time, Alina enjoys active outdoor activities, especially hiking. Her goal is to hike all the US National Parks in the next 5 years.