« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Please note that our risk-based benchmark (cross-asset allocation calibrated to a given C-Var), our tilted portfolio (with tactical overlay exposures implied by the market views expressed above), as well as the corresponding main characteristics (usual statistics, risk contributions, backtests…), are available only for our subscribers.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
LBS - Asset Allocation Model – February UpdateMark MacIsaac
Robust and synchronized upswing in global economic growth, still accelerating earnings growth, global consensus earnings projections continuing to improve and accommodative financial conditions all remained supportive of equities in January.
Skirting the Abyss: From Economic Downturn to Financial Crisis to Long-term M...Llinlithgow Associates
We came right up to the edge of the economic abyss after a year of an accelerating economic downturn and have managed to avoid it but are not out of the woods yet. The risks of a double-dip are growing but the likelihood of a weak recovery and poor job creation is high. A key problem is and was the financial crisis and credit market collapse which has created major lingering problems that will be with us for years. Beyond that a two-decade over-accumulation of debt, drastic declines in Savings and under-Investment have created long-term problems for getting back to sustainable long-term growth. Here we survey the current state of the economy, wade thru the details of the Financial crisis, especially the role of Synthetic Structured Debt and the business performance of the Finance Industry. Then we roll forward to examine the long-term damages created, how we need reduce private debt and what our prospects for reduced long-term growth are. Or, given the decisions to invest in our future and address broader policy problems, how we can return to a path of longer-term high growth and prosperity.
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera progressivement enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
Toutes nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
These are our views (macro, technical as well as quantitative) on the financial markets for the month to come...
FinLight Research is a quantitative cross-asset research firm with an expertise in real assets analysis and a focus on some specific issues: risk budgeting, asset allocation, trading systems and business intelligence.
From here, we are rethinking, day after day, the investment paradigm, preparing optimally for what lies ahead… This is our pretension!
Similar to Finlight Research - Market Perspectives - Oct 2016 (13)
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
2. “Since 1947, every time profits fell this much,
or for this long, a recession was either
underway or about to begin. […] The only
exception was the middle of 1986 to early
1987. The argument can be made that
corporate profits fell in 1986/1987 because a
collapse in crude oil prices crushed energy
profits. This is similar to the current fall in
profits… Despite this collapse in profits in
1986/1987, stock prices marched to new all-
time highs. The same is happening now.
However, by the fall of 1987 the market
became overvalued by most measures and
crashed, reversing all the gains over the
previous 18 months.
”
– Jim Bianco (Bianco Research)
2
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
3. Executive Summary: Global Asset Allocation
Markets are relatively too calm, but appear to be at a crucial point.
Equity market is still locked in a tight range, but breakout seems
imminent
Equity volatility is unlikely to stay this low. We expect it to increase
through the US election due to the global uncertainties (Brexit, next US
rate hike…)
EM has been one of the main beneficiaries from the risk appetite
revival following the Brexit vote. Nevertheless, we feel cautious about
how resilient EM assets would be in the face of rising US rates.
Looking ahead, fundamentals appear to have improved.. That has
renewed speculation that the Fed could raise rates as early as
December
With elevated valuations and crowded long positioning in equities
and bonds, the market appears vulnerable to shocks over the
near term.
Said another way, current market conditions imply small potential
returns and big latent risks across almost all asset classes. Thus, we
remain defensive in our asset allocation.
The moral of the story? Be prepared for anything…
We summarize our views as follows
3
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
4. MACRO VIEW
The Good
Jobless claims in the U.S. dropped to the second-lowest level since 1973.
With September data release, the global manufacturing PMI seems to be breaking its downtrend
The ISM Non Manufacturing report was excellent
We are probably at an inflection point on equity earnings
The Bad
The Atlanta Fed model projects Q3 GDP growth at just 2.1%, down from 2.8% expected a few
days ago. Two months ago, GDPNow was predicting Q3 GDP growth nearly 1% higher
US Commercial real estate (CRE) suffers. The Dodge Momentum Index (a leading indicator for
new non-residential CRE investment) fell 4.3% in September to 129.0 (vs 134.8 in August)
The Ugly
Main systemic risk resides in China: China is not recovering but rather just re-leveraging.
Chinese debt bomb is ticking. Debt is used to create the illusion of growth. The Chinese banking
sector is going to end up needing a bailout.
A Hard Brexit has become a meaningful risk
Something huge is probably gathering in Japan: Abenomics has failed! Contrary to every
economic theory, debt accumulation, debt monetization and record amounts of currency creation
have resulted in a rising yen and falling prices.
4
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
5. 5
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
The Big Four Economic Indicators
The current picture is characterized by relatively strong Employment and Income, a weak Industrial
Production (probably in recovery mode since its Mar ‘16 lows) and Real Retail Sales hovering
around a flat line.
The average of these indicators has been trending lower since Nov. ‘14, suggesting that the economy is
still moving sideways. Industrial Production has been the weakest link in the economic recovery since
the GFC. But the picture has been getting mildly better since June.
6. 6
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
The Big Four Economic Indicators
Looking at an aggregate of
the four indicators, we see
that:
Things have gotten
much better since the
end of the last
recession.
But we are still far from
catching up with the
secular trend.
The gap to that
secular trend is even
getting wider.
7. 7
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
ISM Manufacturing & Services ☺
Both ISM manufacturing and
services indices are now in
expansion territories
The manufacturing index
rebounded to 51.5 in
September, up from 49.4 in
August. Its new orders
component rebounded to 55.1
in September from 49.1 in
August.
The ISM Non Manufacturing
report was excellent. The
services index jumped to 57.1
from 51.4 in August. Its new
orders component soared to
60 (up from 51.4)
8. 8
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
Global Manufacturing PMI
The global PMI is also
getting much better.
The JPM Global
Manufacturing PMI has been
in a continuous downtrend
since 2013, and clearly
pointing to a global recession.
With the last monthly moves
(50.8 in Aug and 51.0 in Sep),
the downtrend seems broken,
and global recession avoided
for the moment.
Is that a sign of an improved
global growth? Just wait and
see...
9. 9
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Employment – U6 Unemployment Rate vs Wage Growth
Since the end of the GFC, the U6 unemployment rate (including unemployed + underemployed, such
as involuntary part-time workers) has decreased from 17% to around 10%. However,
Current levels remain too high (near the peak of the previous cycle).
Wage increases (at a meager 2.6% YoY in nominal terms) remain pathetic
10. 10
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Employment – Adjusted for Population Growth
Labor market improvement
cannot go forever…
When adjusted for
population growth, nonfarm
Employment data tend to
show a similar trend to that
of the seventies.
Given where we stand within
the business cycle, the
current level may constitute
a new interim peak.
11. 11
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Capex
US capex picture remains
bleak with nonresidential fixed
investment continuing its long
slip down.
12. 12
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Capacity Utilization
One of the main factors weighing on inflation and growth is excess capacity.
Overcapacity is more and more obvious in the global economy.
Capacity utilization has been trending lower and stands now at a level that has been historically
indicative of recession.
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve
Capacity Utliization
13. 13
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
GS – Global Leading Indicator (GLI)
The September Final GLI
came in at 2.8%yoy. Its MoM
momentum came at 0.31% (up
from its last month’s 0.27%)
The September GLI reading
now signals economic
expansion after a brief
summer excursion in the
slowdown quadrant.
Seven of the ten underlying
components of the GLI
improved in August.
We continue to think that the
acceleration we’ve been
witnessing since Jan. ‘15 is
quite modest for a typical
expansion phase
14. 14
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
EQUITY
Our equity outlook remains cautious. We see the market more vulnerable than ever to growth,
earnings and policy disappointments.
Stocks have flirted with making a move above the recent highs but conviction seems missing.
The US equity valuation picture has hardly changed since last quarter. Whatever metrics we consider,
US stocks look expensive, making the pressure to deliver a positive earnings growth very substantial
Relative to alternatives, though, valuations are a lot more reasonable than what many perceive. The S&P
500 earnings yield is nearly twice the yield on the 10 year treasury. Its dividend yield is 0.5% points
higher than the 10 year UST.
In order for valuations to cause problems, there has to be a catalyst (a rate hike, a recession,
disappointing earnings, a geopolitical event…) to get it started.
Market volatility remains very subdued. We still expect an increase in VIX futures over the next couple of
months and through the U.S. presidential election.
Given the current congestion in indices, due to a convergence of supports and resistances, a break out
of the tightening range is likely coming, but the direction is uncertain at this time. The trigger for
that movement could be the Q3 earnings season. Given the current VIX level, we think it is less likely a
significant rally will occur from here.
A stronger dollar will induce another headwind to already weak earnings
Capital spending continues to contract and to be replaced by stock buybacks and other forms of financial
engineering.
15. 15
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
EQUITY
We remain Neutral on S&P 500 but with a bearish bias as we see increasing political uncertainty into
the US elections and some headwinds from the resumption of the Fed rate hike cycle and a strong
Dollar.
We remain UW Europe into year-end because of elevated political uncertainty (from Brexit and the
Italian referendum) and uncertainty on ECB policy
We still think that key fundamental data will eventually matter… in a BIG BIG way. For now, investors
are buying the rumor of better future earnings. One day, they will be selling the news of bad effective
earnings.
16. 16
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
EQUITY
Our scenarios are unchanged.
Our main scenario from here (70% chance) : A massive top forming around 2170-2190
Equities remain expensive, earnings growth poor and profit margins are showing increasing
evidence of peaking. On Price/Sales metric, equities are trading at the top of the historical range.
A resumption of earnings growth going into 2016 will be necessary for equities to move higher.
Our alternative scenario (30% chance) : The S&P500 breaks the 2170-2190 resistance, opening
the way to 2225 - 2300. Such a breakout would need a new round of stimulus and/or a new impulse
to macro fundamentals
A pull back below 2060 is needed in order to confirm our primary scenario!
Above 2200-2225, we’ll be obliged to recognize the alternative scenario is in.
17. 17
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
EQUITY
Bottom line :
De-risking should continue. A higher allocation to cash is sensible in this late-stage stock bull.
We adjust our positioning rules on the S&P 500 as follows:
We remain Neutral above 2106
To switch to OW again, we need a material break higher than 2170 - 2190
We will switch to UW as soon as the 2100-2106 range is materially broken to the downside.
Any clean break below the ‘09 trend would make us move massively UW
We like the low US beta. We remain Neutral Japan and UW Europe vs. US.
We remain UW in US small caps vs large caps.
We stay OW defensive vs. cyclical and value stocks vs growth stocks.
In our previous report, we’ve turned Neutral on high dividend stocks. As expected, utilities, and
dividend focused stocks have experienced selling pressure. Our view is that low vol/min vol
stocks are increasingly vulnerable.
EM has been one of the main beneficiaries from the risk appetite revival following the Brexit vote.
Nevertheless, we feel cautious about how resilient EM assets would be in the face of rising US
rates. We remain UW EMs vs DMs.
18. 18
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Earnings
The S&P500 stands within an earnings
recession.
For Q3 2016, the estimated earnings
decline is -2.1% YoY (+1.3% if energy is
excluded), marking the first time the
index has seen 6 consecutive quarters
of YoY declines in earnings since
2008/2009
For all of 2016, the estimated S&P 500
growth rate is now projected at -0.1%
for earnings and +2.1% for revenues.
For Q3-2016, 80 companies have
issued negative EPS guidance and 34
companies have issued positive EPS
guidance
The forward 12-month P/E ratio is now
16.7, which is well above the 5-year
(14.9) and 10-year (14.3) averages.
Analysts still expect earnings growth
to return in Q4 2016
19. 19
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
US Earnings
For each quarter since
2014, EPS estimates
have been revised down
If the trend of earnings
revisions continues,
earnings growth for all of
2016 would hardly be
positive
It’s worth noting that the
picture is much better if
you exclude energy
We also notice that
earnings estimate fall
before the season begins,
but the final growth rate
tends to beat estimates
20. 20
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
End of Earnings Recession?
According to Factset data,
actual earnings have always
beaten analyst's estimates
since 2014
Given the usually positive
difference between actual
and estimated earnings
growth, we may expect that
the final reports for Q3-
2016 will break the streak
of lower earnings
21. 21
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – A Long-Term Perspective
S&P 500 to be valued pretty
aggressively relative to
historical valuations:
Equity markets still appear at
lofty valuations, whatever the
valuation metric we use.
All the indicators we use
suggest a cautious long-term
outlook and weak long-term
return expectations These
measures are consistent with
flat (0%) 12 year S&P 500
nominal total returns
22. 22
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – Market Breadth
Since July, the index has
been diverging from its
50d-MA breadth.
Divergence is substantial
and surely will not last.
Re-convergence could be
done either with the
S&P500 breaking out the
symmetrical triangle to the
downside, or with the
breadth breaking to the
upside
The market continues to
hesitate (the consolidation
triangle is getting tighter)
and will likely break on one
side or the other, very
soon.
This break will be followed
by an impulsive movement
in the same direction.
23. 23
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – A Medium-Term Perspective
Since Q3-2015, the VIX
moving range widened and
corrective actions in the index
became more painful.
Convergence of support and
resistance is creating a
tightening range around
current levels. A break out
seems imminent.
Given the current low level of
the VIX, a break to the
downside looks more
probable.
24. 24
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P 500 – A Short-Term Perspective
Over the short-term, the
next level to watch is
2106. Any clean break
below it will open the door
to a more impulsive
decline towards 2060 and
even 2000.
On the topside, we need
to go through the 100-
dma at 2140 to feel more
confident about the end of
the correction.
But only a material break
above the trend across
the highs since Aug. ‘16
(~2170) would make the
setup constructive
enough to consider a
bullish stance.
25. 25
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – A Short-Term Perspective
Our prop. Short-Term trading model has been flat since mid-August.
3 systems are targeting a break above 2189.
3 others are targeting a break below 2083
Bottom line: There is no conviction there!
26. 26
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
S&P500 – Implied Vol
S&P 500 implied volatility
still appears somewhat low
when compared with the
potential move (as measured
by 1-year beta to the MSCI
World) in a risk-off scenario
More generally, DM vols
appear more attractive than
EM vols.
On a risk-return basis, we
continue to prefer DM to
Ems equities.
27. 27
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
GOVIES & INFLATION-LINKED
Recent data suggests that the US economic recovery is gathering momentum The Fed seems on track
to raise rates in December
The rumor that the ECB may taper its bond purchases in advance of the scheduled end date impacted
negatively stocks and bonds. The induced volatility in markets should be seen as a warning signal of
what is to come when interest rates ultimately start to go up.
Low interest rates are causing significant damage to financial institutions (banks, pension funds,
insurance companies). The amplitude of this damage will become evident in the next recession
The sell-off in Govies should continue as bond valuations are still stretched and Central Banks
outlook appears less supportive for duration. ECB/BoJ QE programs may be replaced by fiscal
policies.
G3 government yields are inconsistent with fundamentals. Eurozone (like Japanese) yields appear too
low when compared to nominal GDP growth. In our view, this is a bubble inflated by investors who
think that central banks will support such prices indefinitely.
The endgame will be disastrous given the extreme levels reached by valuation and market
positioning in FI.
We are Neutral on 10y-USTs and will remain so as long as the 1.85 resistance isn’t breached.
The U.S. curve looks likely to steepen from here, especially if the 10y-UST yield goes above 1.85. We
prefer to get out of our long flatteners positions on the UST curve.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
28. 28
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
INFLATION-LINKED
Inflation isn't on anyone's radar right now. Inflation expectations haven't moved up yet. Any
surprise on the inflation front would make a lot of damage on the market.
Inflationary signs should be watched closely as they will foreshadow a steepening decline in
Govies.
We remain Neutral HICP Inflation as we see breakevens trading sideways
We move to OW 10y-TIPS. The US labor market is late in the cycle and should drive wage inflation.
Moreover, and from a tech perspective, the US 10y-breakeven has broken its downtrend since ’13
(~1.60) to the upside and seems to target 1.75 and even 1.85.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
29. 29
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
CORPORATE CREDIT
Credit is expensive relative to the fundamentals . fundamentals continue to deteriorate, with EBITDA
growth continuing to decline and net leverage rising further (especially in the US). But central
bank QE from Europe and Japan remains a support.
We still see significant interest in USD credit given the low level of Euro HG credit yields. But we
expect demand for USD credit will slow because of the rising cost of FX risk hedging
Concerns around European banks, combined with a hard Brexit stance from the UK made European
credit markets underperform their US counterparties.
We remain overweight US vs EUR credit (more on IG than HY) because of our fundamentally
bearish view on European credit, the relative yield disadvantage and the fact that the re-leveraging
cycle looks more mature in the US.
In high yield, bonds rallied sharply after OPEC Algiers meeting. We keep, nevertheless, our bias
towards higher quality. Any unpriced rate hike (and/or dollar strengthening) would weigh on low quality
bonds (High Yield and EM debt). We remain UW on HY and Neutral on IG.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
30. 30
FIXED INCOME & CREDIT
EM DEBT
The dollar strengthening we still expect would weigh on EM debt
We remain Neutral on EM bonds, because of all the macro challenges facing the EM economies at a
time when the Fed is likely to be more hawkish
Bottom line : Neutral Govies, UW US vs Eurozone Govies, get out of our long flatteners on the US
yield curve, but remain short duration in 2y USTs, UW credit mainly through HY and Neutral on IG
(duration hedged), UW Eurozone vs US in IG & HY credit, OW 10y-TIPS breakevens and Neutral HICP
Inflation, UW High Yield vs High Grade, Neutral on EM sovereigns with a little preference for hard
currencies bonds.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
31. 31
US Govies – 10y UST
The divergence between US
bond yields and the global
PMI seems too wide to last.
Convergence can come from
either side. But, given the
global context (CB actions,
monetary policies…), it is more
probable to see it coming from
higher yields.
Closing the gap needs a
catalyst that may come from
ECB/BoJ ineluctable tapering
(or just rumors of).
We feel more cautious on all
yield sensitive assets: Govies,
HY credit, EM debt…
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
32. 32
US Govies – 10y UST
Our positioning rules remain
unchanged:
OW below 1.65
Neutral above 1.65 and
remain so as long as the
1.80 level is preserved.
Move to Neutral around
1.25-1.28
Above 1.80, move to UW.
In September, and according
to these rules, we’ve moved
from OW to Neutral, then to
OW again before turning
Neutral above 1.65 on Oct.
6th.
We remain Neutral as long
as the 1.85 resistance isn’t
breached.
Breaking above 1.85 seems
unlikely, at least for now.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
33. 33
Credit Fundamentals
We continue to feel cautious
about US corporate leverage
and its disconnection from credit
spreads.
Corporate indebtedness is back
to its previous peak, when
measured as a percentage of
net revenues.
The picture is made more
bearable by low interest rates
and low debt servicing. This
will remain true as far as
corporations are able to
refinance maturing debt easily.
The ultimate risk for such an
instable equilibrium: liquidity
vanishing under a severe risk-
off scenario.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
34. 34
Credit Fundamentals
Upgrade-to-downgrade ratio and default rate have has reached levels last seen in H2-2008.
And this not just an oil/energy story.
This is again a sign that we are in the late stage of the credit cycle.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
35. 35
US Credit – Relative Positioning
We have been OW US vs European credit since Jul. ‘16 on HY and since Apr ‘15 on IG.
In September, we made money on this position as European indices have underperformed US
indices, mainly driven by worries about European banks
We maintain our current relative positioning
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
36. 36
US Credit – Is Active Hedging On?
At around 11.5%, CDX.IG pull-
call skew is close to its 3 month
highs
OTM CDX put options are quite
expensive relative to call
options. This is probably the
sign of active credit risk
hedging.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
37. 37
EXCHANGE RATES
Central banks remain the key driver of foreign exchange, We remain structural Dollar bulls
As expected, the dollar is now supported by the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and bets on a rate hike in Dec
‘16.
The technical picture for the EUR-USD remains rangy and messy. The U.S./German 10-year
spread is starting to widen, which is normally bearish for EUR-USD
We remain UW for the moment. We will move to Neutral above 1.14, and to OW if the spot breaks
above the 1.156 resistance to target 1.18
Our positioning rules remain unchanged:
Move to Neutral within the 1.14 - 1.156 range
Move to OW if the spot breaks above the 1.156 resistance to target 1.18
Remain UW below 1.14.
Over the medium-term (Q4-2016 and H1-2017), we maintain our downside projections towards
1.07-1.04-parity. For that, we need a clean break through the strong support area at 1.0910-1.0950
area, then through 1.06 (the floor of the triangle pattern).
Hard Brexit has become a meaningful risk. The value of the British pound has plummeted since the
referendum vote and seems to be saying that the British (tough) strategy to deal with Brexit is not the
good one.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
38. 38
EXCHANGE RATES
The downtrend since January has been broken and we’ve moved from Neutral to OW around
104 on Oct. 11. Next targets to watch: 104.8 and 108.
We adjust our positioning rules on USD-JPY as follows:
Remain OW as far as the downtrend from Jan. ‘16 isn’t reintegrated.
Move to Neutral below
Only a break below of 99.50 and bearish momentum, would make us move to UW
EM currencies have weakened since the middle of August as Fed risks have been repriced.
We anticipate that pressure on EM currencies will resume and continue until we see a more
constructive / fundamental improvement for global growth and commodities supply/demand
imbalances.
We remain UW EM and Commodity FX
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
39. 39
EUR-USD
The U.S./German 10-year spread
is starting to widen, which is
normally bearish for EURUSD.
The technical picture for EUR-
USD remains rangy and messy.
We remain UW for the moment.
We will move to Neutral above
1.14, and to OW if the spot
breaks above the 1.156
resistance (the ceil of the triangle
pattern formed since Mar. ‘15) to
target 1.18
Over the medium-term (Q4-2016
and H1-2017), we maintain our
downside projections towards
1.07-1.04-parity. For that, we
need a clean break through the
strong support area at 1.0910-
1.0950 area, then through 1.06
(the floor of the triangle pattern).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
40. 40
USD-JPY
In our previous report, we said: “The
important area to watch stands
around the trendline formed across
the highs since January ~103.94”
The downtrend since January has
been broken and we’ve moved
from Neutral to OW around 104
on Oct. 11. Next targets to watch:
104.8 and 108.
We adjust our positioning rules on
USD-JPY as follows:
Remain OW as far as the
downtrend from Jan. ‘16 isn’t
reintegrated.
Move to Neutral below
Only a break below of 99.50
and bearish momentum, would
make us move to UW
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
41. 41
COMMODITY
We continue to view upward moves since Jan. ‘16 more as technical adjustments than as a
fundamentally-driven ones.
We don’t see any sustainable recovery without a pick-up in global growth or a material
tightening on the supply side. It is likely that supply destruction (due to pull-back in capital
investment) will be the main catalyst for the next sustainable recovery in prices.
We also expect a considerable volatility along the way
We remain UW commodities over 3-6 months as we believe the recent rally might be short-lived
The supply side has adjusted but still has a way to go in many commodities before erasing
current imbalances. In order to get more cuts in supply, we think there needs another leg
down in prices to force capitulation
US dollar strengthening should resume. Dollar will dictate both direction and velocity in
commos. We expect the stronger dollar to put downward pressure on commodities despite
supportive fundamentals for some of them
The downtrend in commodities looks about to bottom out. We see one last leg down in energy
and metals.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
42. 42
COMMODITY
Bottom Line :
Energy:
OPEC agreement in Algiers has supported markets. OPEC surprised markets by agreeing to cut
production (to a range of 32.5-33.0 mbd at some point after the November meeting) for the first time in
eight years. However, much uncertainty remains around a finalized OPEC deal.
Another good news for oil: Inventories showed an unexpected decline.
Ample supply remains the major problem plaguing the oil market. US shale production continues to
weigh on price.
Despite the recent decline in inventories, crude oil stockpiles are still above levels they were at this time
last year and much higher than the average levels of the last ten years or going all the way back to 1984
We think that the bottom is in for oil, but we don’t expect a significant rally from here. Any growing
evidence that the downtrend in U.S. crude production is ending, would induce another sharp drop in
prices.
$40-$50 per barrel is the range for WTI over the short-term. Only an unexpected exogenous event
could cause oil to break out of it, on one side or the other..
We actually expect the spot to test again the 25-30 area before putting in a permanent rebound. At this
stage, we watch a few key levels ($40, $36, $31, $25). We need to see how the price behaves around
these levels to make our projections.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
43. 43
COMMODITY
According to our positioning rules, we turned to Neutral on WTI as the spot broke above $50 (Oct 11)
Our bearish bias is still intact. Only a material break above 52.5 would open scope for a rally.
Our tactical rules are adjusted as follows:
Remain Neutral above $50
Move to UW below $49.8-$50
Move to OW above $52.5 (to target 60 – 65) or below $29 (to play the rebound).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
44. 44
COMMODITY
Precious Metals:
Outlook for precious metals continues to be dominated by Fed rhetoric, macroeconomic and political
uncertainties and the subsequent impact on US dollar, real yields and sovereign credit.
As expected in our previous report, price weakness has shown up again in the gold market. The losses
were sudden and severe on Oct. 4th. A number of explanations were proffered for the sell-off. Most of
them turned around the rally in the US dollar and the reversal in US long-term yields.
Applying our positioning rules (please have a look to our Sep. Report), we’ve moved from OW to
Neutral on Gold as the spot broke below 1295 (on Oct. 4th)
Our positioning rules are adjusted as follows:
Remain Neutral between 1210 and 1300
Go OW above 1300, targeting 1380 and even 1430
Turn UW if the spot breaks below 1210 and go OW again below 1070
Over the medium term, we think that gold / silver are still due for a final leg down. Our ultimate
target was raised to 1000 – 1040 on gold and 12.5-13 on silver. The main risk to our scenario is the
resurgence of DM sovereign risk (starting with UK?).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
45. 45
COMMODITY
Base Metals: .
Despite the macro-driven rally started in Jan ‘16, we remain UW on base metals on continuing excess
supply, weak prospects for demand and cost deflation.
Industrial metals have remained range bounded since July. We believe that lower prices are still
needed to induce more supply adjustments.
From a longer-term point of view, we believe that metals prices are headed for multi-year declines
as the current China-driven super-cycle appears to have peaked
Agriculture:
The S&P GSCI Agri TR Index posted a decent gain (+4.5%) in September.
Last week, wheat and corn futures soared, amid talks of hedge funds struggling to close short positions,
with good US export sales data, and talk of Chinese demand for wheat
For grains, a bullish shift in sentiment from here, would require a significantly larger-than-expected cut to
US yields.
We choose to remain Neutral on Agris, as we have no conviction at this stage and given big
uncertainties around forecasts for 2016-17
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
46. 46
Crude – A Fundamental Perspective
In Algiers meeting, OPEC oil ministers agreed in principle to cut production to a cap of 32.5-33.0
mbd. At this stage, the agreement is nothing more than the formation of a study group to consider
how to enact such a reduction in November meeting..
In the meanwhile, OPEC output rose to a record 33.75 million in September
The targeted cap remains some 10% higher than OPEC production when oil first reached the
$60 level.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
47. 47
Crude – A Medium-Term Perspective
The downtrend is still intact.
Moreover, oil prices are now at extreme overbought levels, which may provide a long-term sell signal
with $30-35/bbl as a target.
As long as the spot remains below the downtrend line, the pressure remains to the downside.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
48. 48
Crude – Tech. Perspective
According to our positioning
rules, we turned to Neutral on
WTI as the spot broke above
$50 (Oct 11)
Our bearish bias is still intact.
Only a material break above
52.5 would open scope for a
rally.
Our tactical rules are adjusted
as follows:
Remain Neutral above $50
Move to UW below $49.8-
$50
Move to OW above $52.5
(to target 60 – 65) or below
$29 (to play the rebound).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
49. 49
Gold – Tech. Perspective
The move on Oct. 4th was sudden and severe. Gold fell to the lowest in almost 4 months and
breached the key technical level of 200-dma.
A material break below the 200dma may mean that the current uptrend is over.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
50. 50
Gold – Tech. Perspective
Applying our positioning rules
(please have a look to our Sep.
Report), we’ve moved from
OW to Neutral on Gold as the
spot broke below 1295 (on Oct.
4th)
The next level to watch is 1249.
A break through will open the
door to a test of 1210.
Only a move above 1300 would
signal a recovery.
Our positioning rules are
adjusted as follows:
Remain Neutral between
1210 and 1300
Go OW above 1300,
targeting 1380 and even
1430
Turn UW if the spot breaks
below 1210 and go OW
again below 1070
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
51. 51
Copper – Tech. Perspective
Within the industrial metals
complex, we’ve UW Copper for
a while now. From a
fundamental point of view,
Copper is still one of the most
oversupplied markets.
But, from a technical
perspective, we think the metal
will soon find a near-term
support around 4620 (the floor of
the current triangle pattern)
We switch to Neutral with a
bullish bias, for now.
We’ll move to OW if the spot
breaks up (above 4950, target
~5400 where we’ll move
massively UW) and to UW again
if it breaks down (below 4620)
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
52. 52
ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index posted gains of 0.6% in September (+3.0% QoQ and
4.2% YoY). Gains were led by Equity Hedge (+1.1% MoM) and Relative Value (+0.9% MoM, with RV :
Volatility Arbitrage making 1.6% MoM) strategies.
Both CTA and Discretionary Macro strategies showed mixed performance in September, with -0.7%
on HFRI Systematic Diversified Index and a meager +0.1% on HFRI Macro: Discretionary Thematic
Index
Global Macro managers have largely benefitted from recent market movements, as they
continue to play the growth divergence thesis between the US and the rest of the world. Thus, they
posted substantial gains since Oct. 1st, benefitting from their long USD positions, the sharp decline of
the GBP/USD and their short duration trades in fixed income. These views have finally proved
profitable as markets increasingly price in a Fed rate hike by December.
CTAs accentuated their losses in October, as a result of their long fixed income and mixed
performance in the commodity bucket, and despite their short positioning in Pound.
We believe that diversifying portfolios with an increased allocation to alternatives is particularly
attractive at this stage of the cycle, given the current macroeconomic and interest rate uncertainties.
Within the hedge fund universe, we continue to prefer strategies with moderate market
directionality (“risk diversifiers” type) such as L/S Equity Market Neutral, Global Macro and CTAs.
The reason behind that is that we continue to consider traditional asset classes as richly valued.
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
53. 53
ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES
We maintain our OW rating on :
Equity Market Neutral, a strategy we think to be well positioned for a spike of volatility by the fall.
CTAs: Despite their recent losses, we keep a clear OW stance on CTAs as a diversifier in
portfolios and a hedge against future stress. Furthermore, we expect new trends to emerge
soon… either from a firmer expansion or more likely from a recession!
Global Macro: We like this strategy as a diversifier and tail hedge. We have a slight preference
for macro funds with a focus on Forex and Fixed-income…
Vol. Arb strategy and prefer funds that trade volatility globally (all assets / all regions).
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
54. 54
Hedge Fund Alpha Generation
The hedge fund industry has been
producing a negative overall alpha
since end-2015
This underperformance has been driven
by several factors: crowded trades,
uncertainties about growth and rate
policy, lower dispersion…
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
55. Bottom Line: Global Asset Allocation
Markets are relatively too calm, but appear to be at a crucial point.
Equity market is still locked in a tight range, but breakout seems
imminent
Equity volatility is unlikely to stay this low. We expect it to increase
through the US election due to the global uncertainties (Brexit, next US
rate hike…)
EM has been one of the main beneficiaries from the risk appetite
revival following the Brexit vote. Nevertheless, we feel cautious about
how resilient EM assets would be in the face of rising US rates.
Looking ahead, fundamentals appear to have improved.. That has
renewed speculation that the Fed could raise rates as early as
December
With elevated valuations and crowded long positioning in equities
and bonds, the market appears vulnerable to shocks over the
near term.
Said another way, current market conditions imply small potential
returns and big latent risks across almost all asset classes. Thus, we
remain defensive in our asset allocation.
The moral of the story? Be prepared for anything…
We summarize our views as follows
55
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
56. 56
Disclaimer
FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an
offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any
securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services
by FinLight Research in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation,
purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such
jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be
construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter.
FinLight Research expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions
taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.
57. About Us…
FinLight Research is a research-centric company focused on Asset Allocation from a top-down
perspective, on Portfolio Construction, and all related quantitative aspects and risk management issues.
Our expertise expands along 3 axes:
Asset Allocation with risk control and/or risk budgeting techniques
Allocation to alternative investments : Hedge funds, rule-based strategies (momentum, value,
carry, volatility), real assets (real estate, infrastructure, farmland, timberland and natural resources).
Private equity and venture capital should be the next step…
Allocation with a factorial approach built on the understanding (profiling) of the risk/return drivers of
the different asset classes
FinLight Research is an innovation-oriented company. We target to fill the gap between the
academic research and the investment community, especially on real assets and alternatives. We survey
on a continuous basis the academic literature for interesting published and working papers related to
quantitative investing, non-linear profiling, asset allocation, real assets...
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FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com
58. Our Standard Offer
Provide tailor-
made quantitative
analysis of your
portfolios in terms
of asset allocation,
risk profiling and
risk contribution
Provide tailor-
made quantitative
analysis of your
portfolios in terms
of asset allocation,
risk profiling and
risk contribution
•Risk Profiling
Offer a turnkey 3-
step factor-based
process in GAA
with factor
selection, risk
budgeting and
dynamic portfolio
protection
Offer a turnkey 3-
step factor-based
process in GAA
with factor
selection, risk
budgeting and
dynamic portfolio
protection
•Factor-based GAA Process
Provide assistance
with alternative
investments
(including real
assets) in terms of
profiling, and
integration in a
GAA
Provide assistance
with alternative
investments
(including real
assets) in terms of
profiling, and
integration in a
GAA
•Alternative Investments
Provide assistance
with asset
allocation and
related risk control
and/or risk
budgeting
techniques
Provide assistance
with asset
allocation and
related risk control
and/or risk
budgeting
techniques
•Global Asset Allocation
(GAA)
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FinLight Research | www.finlightresearch.com