Before deciding on a course of action, prudent managers evaluate the situation confronting them. Unfortunately, some managers are cautious to a fault – taking costly steps to defend against unlikely outcomes. Others are overconfident – underestimating the range of potential outcomes. And still, others are highly impressionable – allowing memorable events in the past to dictate their view of what might be possible now.
These are just three of the well-documented psychological traps that afflict most managers at some point, assert authors John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa in their 1998 article. Still, more pitfalls distort reasoning ability or cater to our own biases. Examples of the latter include the tendencies to stick with the status quo, to look for evidence confirming one’s preferences, and to throw good money after bad because it’s hard to admit making a mistake.
Luckily, techniques exist to overcome each one of these problems. For instance, since the way a problem is posed can influence how you think about it, try to reframe the question in various ways and ask yourself how your thinking might change for each version. Even if we can’t eradicate the distortions ingrained in the way our minds work, we can build tests like this into our decision-making processes to improve the quality of the choices we make.
The way human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. But bad decisions can often be traced back to the point where the decisions were made. The key is how a problem is framed and how to develop the solution.
Find more at: https://www.dtechsystems.co/resources/
Summary of article, "The hidden traps in decision making." The book examines 5 major decision traps and offers key examples and solutions . To buy this article: http://amzn.to/1POMJEJ
Negotiation is aimed to resolve points of difference, to gain advantage for an individual or collective, or to craft outcomes to satisfy various interests. Here you can find new ways to improve your negotiation skills.
Influence: the Psychology of Persuasion (Cialdini)Hugo Guyader
Lecturing on Cialdini's Influence book to Master students for a course in Advanced Consumer Marketing at Linköping University, Sweden.
Cialdini (2016) - "Pre-Suasion": http://www.slideshare.net/guyaderhugo/presuasion-a-revolutionary-way-to-influence-and-persuade
The way human brain works can sabotage the choices we make. But bad decisions can often be traced back to the point where the decisions were made. The key is how a problem is framed and how to develop the solution.
Find more at: https://www.dtechsystems.co/resources/
Summary of article, "The hidden traps in decision making." The book examines 5 major decision traps and offers key examples and solutions . To buy this article: http://amzn.to/1POMJEJ
Negotiation is aimed to resolve points of difference, to gain advantage for an individual or collective, or to craft outcomes to satisfy various interests. Here you can find new ways to improve your negotiation skills.
Influence: the Psychology of Persuasion (Cialdini)Hugo Guyader
Lecturing on Cialdini's Influence book to Master students for a course in Advanced Consumer Marketing at Linköping University, Sweden.
Cialdini (2016) - "Pre-Suasion": http://www.slideshare.net/guyaderhugo/presuasion-a-revolutionary-way-to-influence-and-persuade
This presentation had been used internally in a Lunch & Learn session at KMS Technology which is one of the types of knowledge sharing at KMS Technology Vietnam (www.kms-technology.com)
Creative Problem Solving - Six Thinking Hats and Other Tools by CTRAndre Hannemann Harris
The thinking process is like a kayak with two paddles: One is CREATIVE Thinking while the other represents CRITICAL Thinking.
Six Thinking Hats, introduced in 1985 by Edward DeBono, is an effective tool for decision making and problem solving that uses both sides of your brain.
Culture Transformation Resources, LLC (CTR) provides a fresh look at Creative Problem Solving and Six Thinking Hats in this training presentation.
There are many Benefits of using Six Thinking Hats, including, it helps:
- Provide a common language
- Maximize productive collaboration
- Diversity of thought while using more of our brains
- Consider issues, challenges, decisions and opportunities systematically
- Remove ego (reduce confrontation)
- Save time
- Focus (one thing at a time)
- Think clearly and objectively
- Create, evaluate & implement action plans
- Achieve significant and meaningful results
- Make meetings more productive in less time
#CreativeProblemSolving #ProblemSolving #Leadership #CTR
by Culture Transformation Resources, LLC
www.CTRConsultingServices.com
1-877-287-1234
This slide deck is based on the concepts in a great book by William Ury called Getting Past No. If these slides pique your interest, I suggest reading the book; it is well worth your time.
Power of Negotiation (Negotiation Power)Ahmed Adel
Negotiator believes that he has less power than the other party which would be used against him as an advantage and accordingly seeks power to offset that advantage.
Negotiator believes he needs more power than the other party to increase the probability of securing the desired output.
HARRAH's Entertainment - Case Study on Real-Time CRMSreejith Nair
Presented as part of course module at IIM - Calcutta
Discusses the timelines of CRM Evolution at Harrah's (Caesar's Entertainment)
Looks at the challenges and the risks faced by Harrah's
Recommends solutions and next steps to deliver maximum value
This presentation had been used internally in a Lunch & Learn session at KMS Technology which is one of the types of knowledge sharing at KMS Technology Vietnam (www.kms-technology.com)
Creative Problem Solving - Six Thinking Hats and Other Tools by CTRAndre Hannemann Harris
The thinking process is like a kayak with two paddles: One is CREATIVE Thinking while the other represents CRITICAL Thinking.
Six Thinking Hats, introduced in 1985 by Edward DeBono, is an effective tool for decision making and problem solving that uses both sides of your brain.
Culture Transformation Resources, LLC (CTR) provides a fresh look at Creative Problem Solving and Six Thinking Hats in this training presentation.
There are many Benefits of using Six Thinking Hats, including, it helps:
- Provide a common language
- Maximize productive collaboration
- Diversity of thought while using more of our brains
- Consider issues, challenges, decisions and opportunities systematically
- Remove ego (reduce confrontation)
- Save time
- Focus (one thing at a time)
- Think clearly and objectively
- Create, evaluate & implement action plans
- Achieve significant and meaningful results
- Make meetings more productive in less time
#CreativeProblemSolving #ProblemSolving #Leadership #CTR
by Culture Transformation Resources, LLC
www.CTRConsultingServices.com
1-877-287-1234
This slide deck is based on the concepts in a great book by William Ury called Getting Past No. If these slides pique your interest, I suggest reading the book; it is well worth your time.
Power of Negotiation (Negotiation Power)Ahmed Adel
Negotiator believes that he has less power than the other party which would be used against him as an advantage and accordingly seeks power to offset that advantage.
Negotiator believes he needs more power than the other party to increase the probability of securing the desired output.
HARRAH's Entertainment - Case Study on Real-Time CRMSreejith Nair
Presented as part of course module at IIM - Calcutta
Discusses the timelines of CRM Evolution at Harrah's (Caesar's Entertainment)
Looks at the challenges and the risks faced by Harrah's
Recommends solutions and next steps to deliver maximum value
Persuasion architectures: Nudging People to do the Right ThingUser Vision
Review of some of the most popular commercial and public sector persuasion methodologies. Plus some reasons why they may not work and some criticisms, and a comparison of how supermarkets persuade us, offline.
Critical Analytical ThinkingPart II Heuristics and Bias.docxannettsparrow
Critical Analytical Thinking
Part II: Heuristics and Biases
Dr. Abdelghani Es-Sajjade
[email protected]
Overview
The law of small numbers
Cause and chance
Anchors
Availability heuristic
The public and the experts
Representativeness
Causal stereotypes
Regression to the mean
A two-systems view of regression
The law of small numbers
Observations
The counties in which the incidence of kidney cancer is lowest are mostly rural, sparsely populated in the Midwest, the South, and the West
Why? The clean living of the rural lifestyle. No air pollution, no water pollution, fresh food without additives.
Observations
The counties in which the incidence of kidney cancer is highest are mostly rural, sparsely populated in the Midwest, the South, and the West
Why? Poverty of rural lifestyle—no access to good medical care, too much alcohol, too much tobacco.
Our mind & statistics
Explanation has nothing to do with rural life
System 1 excels in one form of thinking: it automatically and effortlessly establishes causal connections between events…
even when supporting data is minimal or totally absent
We are insensitive to sample size or reliability of data.
Sample of 150 or 3000, who cares?
Why? WYSIATI and system 1 is gullible.
Our mind & statistics
We know about sample size!
But often can’t help ourselves.
Did you initially notice “sparsely populated”?
What is the difference?
Large samples are more precise than small samples.
Small samples yield extreme results more often than large samples do.
Hence, small counties, less people so …?
Certainty & doubt
Our mind has a preference for sliding into certainty over maintaining doubt
System 1: rich image with poor evidence
Even in science:
Small sample experiment, complex phenomenon.
Exercise 1
Cause & Chance
We have an inclination to causal thinking
Statistics is different because it focuses on what could have happened instead
The null-hypothesis
Randomness sometimes appears as a pattern
Hot hand: 3 or 4 scores in a row
basketball hot hand, team of players who scores 3 or 4 times in a row is now given more passes and extra defended. Research: this sequence of successes and missed shot fits all the conditions of random. The hot hand is in the eye of the beholder. Massive and widespread cognitive illusion.
11
Speaking of the Law of Small Numbers
“Yes, the studio has had three successful films since the new CEO took over. But it is too early to declare he has a hot hand.”
“The sample of observations is too small to make any inferences. Let’s not follow the law of small numbers.”
“I plan to keep the results of the experiment secret until we have a sufficiently large sample. Otherwise we will face pressure to reach a conclusion prematurely.”
Anchors
Anchoring effect: considering a particular value from an unknown quantity before estimating that quantity
Question: was Ibn Taymiyyah younger or older than 114 years old when he passed away?
What is the anchor? 114 years old.
You.
Behavioral Economics as a Lens for Interaction designPaul Sas
Interaction designers craft experiences by curating the flow of information within contexts that aim to focus attention and interest. Subtle psychological details can dramatically transform an experience. Experimental results from behavioral economics spotlight opportunities for improving the dynamics of an interaction: The presentation frame can harness intrinsically motivating cues, drive engagement, and enable people to develop behavioral patterns that harmonize with their deepest aspirations.
http://www.baychi.org/calendar/20120214/
One of my very first public presentations, this was an internal training on Sales Techniques. It\'s on my list for a redo, as since this I have learned a lot more about presentations and powerpoint.
Using the texts "The No Complaining Rule" and "How Full is Your Bucket," this presentation looks are the dangers of negativity and provides assistance to improvement feedback provision, workplace morale and social interactions.
This lecture is part of a business law course focused on ethics and leadership. This is the student's first introduction to implicit bias and heuristics.
Yes 50 Scientifically Proven Ways To Be PersuasiveAlan French
Robert Cialdini's famous book Yes! 50 Scientifically Proven Ways to Be Persuasive presented in précis format to help you easily remember the powerful techniques.
Business Wealth Club St Albans
Sales classes in St Albans
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Persuasion Equation The Subtle Science of Getting Your Way.docxkarlhennesey
Persuasion Equation: The Subtle Science of Getting Your Way
by Mark Rodgers
AMACOM. (c) 2015. Copying Prohibited.
Reprinted for Personal Account, Purdue University Global
[email protected]
Reprinted with permission as a subscription benefit of Skillport,
All rights reserved. Reproduction and/or distribution in whole or in part in electronic,paper or other forms
without written permission is prohibited.
Chapter 2: Decision Making—The Surprising Reasons People Say Yes and No
Picking his way through the cramped ballroom, with people-filled padded chairs all askew, there was no clear route. Obstacles,
however, were not this man’s primary concern. On his face, you could see his mind racing—searching for what he would say
once he was in front of the crowd. Few people like public speaking, but this situation seemed even more torturous than usual.
He found his standing spot, turned, and faced the crowd.
“I have traveled three hours round-trip every day to attend this session. I’ve driven dangerous roads and in heavy traffic. You
are a talented and knowledgeable group. I have learned from you, and you have learned from me. And I sure could use the
money to help pay for gas. Please, please. Pick me!”
That scene played out in a Calgary persuasion workshop during which I asked three volunteers to vie for a single, crisp $100
bill by convincing the audience to individually award them the money. The idea: Whoever makes the most compelling case,
winning the affections of the crowd, walks away with the cash and the bragging rights.
Participants are allowed to make their case in any way they deem appropriate, with one exception: They can’t share the money
or materially benefit the crowd in any way. (I’ll buy you all drinks!) Adding to the pressure, I give them just four minutes to
develop their case and only 25 seconds to present it.
What would you say if you were in this situation?
This activity mirrors business life today in many ways. You are often in competition with others for the account, the promotion,
the project. You must think on your feet and be able to put together compelling arguments fast, and you might not have much
time to state your case. Sometimes you need to do all this—especially in peer-to-peer persuasion situations—without offering
your target some sort of material gain. Not an easy assignment, to be sure.
The most interesting aspect of this workshop activity, though, is not the people vying for the money—it’s the people deciding
who will earn the money. You may think that people are carefully analyzing participants’ arguments, weighing the pros and the
cons to rationally decide who gets their votes. That’s not what’s happening. At all. The surprising truth is that most people have
no idea why they say yes.
UNEXPECTED TRUTHS ABOUT YOUR THINKING
Nobel Prize–winning economist and author Daniel Kahneman suggests that human beings possess two “systems” for thinking:
one that processes information very quickly, and one that d ...
Neuroscience of Grantmaking and GivingTony Macklin
We are not as intentional as we think we are. The unconscious biases and mental shortcuts in our hidden brains make us predictably irrational, including in our grantmaking and giving. In this session, you’ll learn what philanthropy is learning from the newer fields of neuroscience, cognitive science, and behavioral economics. And, you’ll learn tips for helping your staff, board, yourself, and your grantees make more informed decisions.
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It is crucial for the taxpayers to understand about the TDS Return Filing Due Date, so that they can fulfill your TDS obligations efficiently. Taxpayers can avoid penalties by sticking to the deadlines and by accurate filing of TDS. Timely filing of TDS will make sure about the availability of tax credits. You can also seek the professional guidance of experts like Legal Pillers for timely filing of the TDS Return.
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𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐬 (𝐓𝐉 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐮𝐧𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬) is a professional event agency that includes experts in the event-organizing market in Vietnam, Korea, and ASEAN countries. We provide unlimited types of events from Music concerts, Fan meetings, and Culture festivals to Corporate events, Internal company events, Golf tournaments, MICE events, and Exhibitions.
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The world of search engine optimization (SEO) is buzzing with discussions after Google confirmed that around 2,500 leaked internal documents related to its Search feature are indeed authentic. The revelation has sparked significant concerns within the SEO community. The leaked documents were initially reported by SEO experts Rand Fishkin and Mike King, igniting widespread analysis and discourse. For More Info:- https://news.arihantwebtech.com/search-disrupted-googles-leaked-documents-rock-the-seo-world/
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A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
Contents of Memorandum of Association:
Name Clause: This clause states the name of the company, which should end with words like "Limited" or "Ltd." for a public limited company and "Private Limited" or "Pvt. Ltd." for a private limited company.
https://seribangash.com/article-of-association-is-legal-doc-of-company/
Registered Office Clause: It specifies the location where the company's registered office is situated. This office is where all official communications and notices are sent.
Objective Clause: This clause delineates the main objectives for which the company is formed. It's important to define these objectives clearly, as the company cannot undertake activities beyond those mentioned in this clause.
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Liability Clause: It outlines the extent of liability of the company's members. In the case of companies limited by shares, the liability of members is limited to the amount unpaid on their shares. For companies limited by guarantee, members' liability is limited to the amount they undertake to contribute if the company is wound up.
https://seribangash.com/promotors-is-person-conceived-formation-company/
Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
Importance of Memorandum of Association:
Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
https://seribangash.com/difference-public-and-private-company-law/
Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
Amendment of MOA:
While the MOA lays down the company's fundamental principles, it is not entirely immutable. It can be amended, but only under specific circumstances and in compliance with legal procedures. Amendments typically require shareholder
[Note: This is a partial preview. To download this presentation, visit:
https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations]
Sustainability has become an increasingly critical topic as the world recognizes the need to protect our planet and its resources for future generations. Sustainability means meeting our current needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs. It involves long-term planning and consideration of the consequences of our actions. The goal is to create strategies that ensure the long-term viability of People, Planet, and Profit.
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1. Introduction and Key Concepts of Sustainability
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3. Measures and Reporting in Sustainability
4. Sustainability Implementation & Best Practices
To download the complete presentation, visit: https://www.oeconsulting.com.sg/training-presentations
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Improving profitability for small businessBen Wann
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RMD24 | Debunking the non-endemic revenue myth Marvin Vacquier Droop | First ...BBPMedia1
Marvin neemt je in deze presentatie mee in de voordelen van non-endemic advertising op retail media netwerken. Hij brengt ook de uitdagingen in beeld die de markt op dit moment heeft op het gebied van retail media voor niet-leveranciers.
Retail media wordt gezien als het nieuwe advertising-medium en ook mediabureaus richten massaal retail media-afdelingen op. Merken die niet in de betreffende winkel liggen staan ook nog niet in de rij om op de retail media netwerken te adverteren. Marvin belicht de uitdagingen die er zijn om echt aansluiting te vinden op die markt van non-endemic advertising.
Implicitly or explicitly all competing businesses employ a strategy to select a mix
of marketing resources. Formulating such competitive strategies fundamentally
involves recognizing relationships between elements of the marketing mix (e.g.,
price and product quality), as well as assessing competitive and market conditions
(i.e., industry structure in the language of economics).
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Business Valuation Principles for EntrepreneursBen Wann
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2. In making decisions, you may be at the mercy of your mind’s strange workings.
Here’s how to catch thinking traps before they become judgement disaster.
By John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raffia
3. Introduction
Before deciding on a course of action, prudent managers evaluate the situation confronting them.
Unfortunately, some managers are cautious to a fault – taking costly steps to defend against unlikely outcomes.
Others are overconfident – underestimating the range of potential outcomes. And still others are highly
impressionable – allowing memorable events in the past to dictate their view of what might be possible now.
3
4. Introduction
These are just three of the well-documented psychological traps that afflict most managers at some point,
assert authors John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, and Howard Raiffa in their 1998 article. Still, more pitfalls
distort reasoning ability or cater to our own biases. Examples of the latter include the tendencies to stick with
the status quo, to look for evidence confirming one’s preferences, and to throw good money after bad because
it’s hard to admit making a mistake.
4
5. Introduction
Luckily, techniques exist to overcome each one of these problems. For instance, since the way a problem is
posed can influence how you think about it, try to reframe the question in various ways and ask yourself how
your thinking might change for each version. Even if we can’t eradicate the distortions ingrained in the way our
minds work, we can build tests like this into our decision-making processes to improve the quality of the choices
we make.
5
7. The Anchoring Trap
When considering a decision, the mind gives disproportionate weight to the first information it receives. Initial
impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgements.
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
Anchors take many guises. They can be as simple and
seemingly innocuous as a comment offered by a colleague or
a statistic appearing in the morning newspaper. They can be
as insidious as a stereotype about a person’s skin color,
accent, or dress. In business, one of the most common types
of anchors is a past event or trend.
Use alternative
starting points
Think about the
problem on your own
Seek information from
other sources
Be careful of setting
anchors yourself
11 99
$30 $80
How much will you bid
for this wine?
Think of a random
number
7
8. The Status-Quo Trap
We naturally look for reasons to do nothing to protect our ego from damage. Breaking the status quo means
taking action, which means taking responsibility, thus, opening ourselves to criticism and regret.
People sometimes, for example, inherit shares of stock that
they would never have bought themselves. Although it would
be a straightforward, inexpensive proposition to sell those
shares and put the money into a different investment, a
surprising number of people don’t sell. They find the status
quo comfortable, and they avoid taking action that would
upset it. “Maybe I’ll rethink it later,” they say. But “later” is
usually never.
Never think of your
status quo as your
only option
Would you choose the
status quo, if it wasn’t the
status quo?
Appeal of the status quo
will change with time, so
keep evaluating
Avoid exaggerating
the effort to make a
change
OUTCOME
VALUE
GainsLosses
1 unit
1 unit
1 unit
1.31 units
People give a higher weight to
what they already have
making them attached to
their current situation and
goods. Kahneman and
Tversky’s prospect theory
(1992) showed that people felt
losses more than they felt
equivalent gains and this loss
aversion prompts them to
stay with the status quo.
8
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
9. The Sunk-Cost Trap
We often make choices that justify past choices, even when past choices no longer seem valid.
Frequently, it’s because people are unwilling, consciously or
not, to admit to a mistake. Acknowledging a poor decision in
one’s personal life may be purely a private matter, involving
only one’s self-esteem, but in business, a bad decision is
often a very public matter, inviting critical comments from
colleagues or bosses. If you fire a poor performer whom you
hired, you’re making a public admission of poor judgment. It
seems psychologically safer to let him or her stay on, even
though that choice only compounds the error.
Seek other
perspectives
Examine why an old
mistake distresses you
Don’t cultivate a
failure-fearing culture
Be on the lookout for
sunk cost
9
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
10. The Confirmation Trap
This bias leads us to seek information that supports our existing instinct or point of view.
There are two fundamental psychological forces at work here.
The first is our tendency to subconsciously decide what we
want to do before we figure out why we want to do it. The
second is our inclination to be more engaged by things we
like than by things we dislike – a tendency well documented
even in babies. Naturally, then, we are drawn to information
that supports our subconscious leanings. Examine all the
available evidence
Assign a devil’s
advocate
Avoid leading
questions when
seeking advice
Be honest with
yourself about your
motives
A Q 4 7
A) A, 4
B) A, 7
C) Q, 4
D) Q, 7
If a card has a vowel on one side,
then it must have an even number
on the other side.
Most people choose A and 4
because these are the cards
capable of confirming the
statement, but confirming
evidence doesn’t prove anything
– the 4 card has no ability to
invalidate the hypothesis.
Flipping the 7 card, however,
could provide valuable
disconfirming evidence – a vowel
on the other side means not all
cards with vowels have an even
number on the other side.
10
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
11. The Framing Trap
Framing bias occurs when people make a decision based on the way it’s presented, as opposed to just on the
facts themselves. The same facts presented in another way can lead to different judgments or decisions.
A frame can establish the status quo, introduce an anchor,
highlight a sunk cost, or lead you to confirming evidence.
Framing can be particularly important when assessing risk
tolerance; advisors and clients alike need to make sure to
develop a shared understanding of what constitutes risk and
should decide how much risk is tolerable for a given client. Don’t automatically
accept the initial
frame
Try positioning
problems in a neutral,
redundant way
Challenge people’s
questions with other
frames
Think hard
throughout your
decision making
process
OPTION 1:
In Q3, our Earnings per
Share (EPS) were $1.25,
compared to expectations
of $1.27
OPTION 2:
In Q3, our Earnings per
Share (EPS) were $1.25,
compared to Q2, where
they were $1.21
Clearly, option 2 does a better job of framing the
earnings report. The way it is presented as an
improvement over the previous quarter puts a
more positive spin on the EPS number.
11
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
12. Traps in Estimating and Forecasting
Making estimates about time, distance, weight and volume are familiar, and we can get good at those
estimations because we can get quick feedback. However, making forecasts with uncertain events is difficult.
There are three traps within forecasting:
Manage
overconfidence by
considering extremes
Examine your
assumptions and get
more statistics to
reduce recallability
Manage prudence
with honesty by telling
people if estimates
haven’t been adjusted
Think hard
throughout your
decision making
process
Overconfidence
We are often overconfident about our
ability to forecast.
Prudence Trap
We err on the side of caution when faced
with high-stakes decisions.
Recallability Trap
Our forecasts are often influenced by
our own experiences.
12
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
13. 13
Group Think
Groupthink is a term developed by social psychologist Irving Janis in 1972 to describe suboptimal decisions
made by a group due to group social pressures.
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
It is a phenomenon in which the ways of approaching
problems or matters are dealt by the consensus of a group
rather than by individuals acting independently. Essentially,
groupthink occurs when a group makes faulty or ineffective
decisions just for the sake of reaching an agreement. The
following situations increase the likelihood of groupthink:
Vague or abstract words can create confusing meanings in
your receiver's mind. They state a general idea but leave the
precise meaning to the receiver's interpretation. The following
examples show vague or abstract words and ways to make
them specific and precise:
Vague Precise
Many 1,000 or 500 to 1,000
Early 5 a.m.
Hot 100 degrees Fahrenheit
Most 89.9 percent
Others Business administration students
Poor student has a 1.6 grade point average (4.0 = A)
Very rich A millionaire
Soon 7 p.m., Tuesday
Furniture An oak desk
Group identity
When there is strong group
identity.
Leader influence
When a charismatic leader
commands the group.
Lack of knowledge
When people lack personal
knowledge of something or
feel that other members of
the group are more
qualified.
Cognitive load
Where the group is placed
under extreme stress or
where moral dilemmas exist.
14. 14
The Vague Verbiage Trap
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
Though vagueness often occurs unintentionally, it may also
be employed as a deliberate rhetorical strategy to avoid
dealing with an issue or responding directly to a question.
Macagno and Walton note that vagueness "can also be
introduced for the purpose of allowing the speaker to
redefine the concept he wishes to use" (Emotive Language in
Argumentation, 2014).
The following examples show vague or abstract words and
ways to make them specific and precise:
Vague Precise
Many 1,000 or 500 to 1,000
Early 5 a.m.
Hot 100 degrees Fahrenheit
Most 89.9 percent
Others Business administration students
Poor student has a 1.6 grade point average (4.0 = A)
Very rich A millionaire
Soon 7 p.m., Tuesday
Furniture An oak desk
Vague or abstract words can create confusing meanings in your receiver's mind. They state a general idea but
leave the precise meaning to the receiver's interpretation.
15. 15
The Vague Verbiage Trap
A corporation’s earnings report needs to be interpreted and digested by both analysts and the market. The conference call accompanying the
reports release, predominantly conducted by the CEO and CFO, conveys valuable information that facilitates this process. Word choice by
managers affects information processing. In particular the use of uncertain words, such as “probably” and “maybe”, induces investors to
respond less to earnings surprises. That is especially true for managers answers to analyst questions.
We have established that earnings communicated by vague managers delay the responses of analysts and increase their uncertainty; they also
cloud the picture for the majority of investors. These are major consequences but they do not explain why firms might hire vague managers.
Could vague talk bring any benefits? The answer is “yes” in a second-best world where managers’ statements that prove to be excessive after the
fact get punished. Arguably, this issue would be more pronounced for positive statements, if things later take a turn for the worse. This is
especially relevant given the general tendency of analysts to issue overly optimistic forecasts (Hong and Kubik, 2003). Hence, if vague style
indeed helps tone down positive expectations, we would expect to see fewer (or less) negative earnings surprises for vague managers.
1. Do managers tilt to vagueness when they have reason to do so, for example to cushion disappointing earnings when her options are
coming due?
2. Our method for identifying style can be employed to study other speech characteristics. For instance, do managers differ in their
propensity to use positive/negative, quantitative/qualitative, or other types of statements, and what are the capital market effects, if
any, of such style differences that are identified?
EARNINGS REPORT EXAMPLE
Vague or abstract words can create confusing meanings in your receiver's mind. They state a general idea but
leave the precise meaning to the receiver's interpretation.
16. 16
The Overconfidence Trap
The overconfidence bias is the tendency people have to be more confident in their own abilities, such as
driving, teaching, or spelling, than is objectively reasonable.
Below
Average
Average
Above
Average
Percentage of
managers
(n = 300) 76%
24%
Source: Montier (2006). Behaving badly.
Self-reported belief in their fund-management
ability relative to other fund managers
For example, overconfidence can make people less cautious
in their decisions, excessively trade their portfolios, and
under-diversify, all of which lead to underperformance.
A survey showed that most managers think they have above
average analytical skills (a statistical impossibility.)
Make data-driven and
evidence-based
decisions
Corroborate claims
with information from
multiple sources
Be more specific
about predictions
Perform multiple
assessments of the
same thing
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
17. 17
The Base-Rate Neglect Trap
In finance, investors are prone to believe that a history of a
remarkable performance of a given firm is ‘representative’ of
a general performance that the firm will continue to generate
into the future. Thus, they overreact to salient and similar
information about firms past performance such as similar
consecutive earnings surprises. This usually leads to a
violation of the Bayes' theorem.
Widen your
perspective and scope
of data
Think probabilistically
and apply the Bayes’
theorem
List down potential
causes for failure of
companies
Avoid narrow
categorizations of
companies
P(A|B) =
P(B|A) . P(A)
P(B)
P(B|A) → Probability of finding a pharma company among successful IPOs
P(A) → Probability of a successful IPO
P(B) → Probability of company being a pharma firm
P(A|B) → Probability of a successful IPO by a new pharma company
Investors should use this for accurate predictions
Representativeness forces us to focus on this
Base-rates that are often neglected
HOW THIS TRAP CAN AFFECT YOU OVERCOMING THIS TRAP
Base rate fallacy, or base rate neglect, is a cognitive error whereby too little weight is placed on the base, or
original rate, of possibility (e.g., the probability of A given B.)
18. Even though we shared some specific ways managers can guard against these
traps, it’s important to remember, “the best defense is always awareness.”
“Executives who attempt to familiarize themselves with these traps and the diverse
forms they take will be better able to ensure that the decisions they make are
sound and that the recommendations proposed by subordinates or associates are
reliable.”
Conclusion