The Future of Work - PechaKucha
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My presentation at the EDAC 2015 Conference in Whitehorse, YK, Canada Sept. 22, 2015. This is a PechaKucha presentation (20 slides each 20 seconds long).
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The Future of Work - PechaKucha
- 1. The Future of Work & Economic Development Aileen Murray Ec.D.(F) mellormurray@gmail.com @mellormurray Photo: Bloomberg.com
- 2. 3 Forces Technology The Sharing Economy Business Model Evolution
- 3. Tech is killing jobs Productivity decoupled from jobs p Productivity p Profits % of GDP q Wages % of GDP q Median income in US
- 4. Jobs that can be automated are vulnerable
- 5. Luddites 1812 2015 Art/ Photos: mazmanalli.wordpress.com, theatlantic.com
- 6. Jobs replaced by computers People excel in social intelligence, creativity, perception and manipulation The Future of Employment: How Susceptible are Jobs to Computerization, C. Frey, M. Osborne, Sept. 17, 2013 Probability of job losses (next 20 yrs) Telemarketers .99 Health technologists .40 Accountants & auditors .94 Actors .37 Retail salespersons .92 Firefighters .17 Technical writers .89 Editors .06 Real estate agents .86 Chemical engineers .02 Word processors & typists .81 Clergy .008 Machinists .65 Athletic trainers .007 Commercial pilots .55 Dentists .004 Economists .43 Recreational therapists .003
- 7. Robots don’t buy cars Henry Ford & Walter Reuther Detroit Industry, Diego Rivera @ the Detroit Institute of Art
- 8. Business Model Evolution PWC: The Future of Work: The Journey to 2022 Blue Green Orange 3 Worlds of Work
- 9. Orange: Small is Beautiful Outsourced work Specialized teams and independent workers Virtual collaboration http://www.microentrepreneur.biz/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/itunessubscribe.jpg
- 10. The Independent Worker Goods & Services
- 11. Sharing Economy Businesses, assets, funding, tools
- 12. Workforce Implications • Jobless recovery • New jobs • Keeping current • Helping companies adapt and compete
- 13. Education Implications • More important than ever before • Identifying needed skills • STEM • Technology foundation
- 14. Entrepreneurship Growing share of employment • Start ups & scale up • Business planning, strategy, sales & marketing, accounting, technology, soft skills • Incubators, mentors, networks, co-working, 3rd places, pop up stores
- 15. Tax and Policy Implications • Assessment base • Government regulations challenged • Precarious employment • Social safety nets
- 16. Infrastructure & Placemaking • Connectivity key • Businesses, residents more mobile • Quality of place, community connection important
- 17. Measurement Beyond jobs and assessment Managing complexity as well as ambiguity will have the single biggest impact on the way we work over the next 10 years. The Future of Work: A journey to 2022 PWC
- 18. Reflections Technology: creative destruction, infrastructure, education Business Model Evolution: new models, different success measures Sharing Economy: independent workers, policies, placemaking
- 20. Thank you! Aileen Murray Ec.D.(F) mellormurray@gmail.com @mellormurray Photo: Bloomberg.com
Editor's Notes
- Today I’d like to explore some of the disruptive forces affecting the world of work The three forces are creating new jobs and industries and destroying old ones and there are implications for : conventional economic development programs and the economic developer’s role .
- Technology has fundamentally changed how we work, creating new business models and new ways to work together. Three powerful & disruptive forces: technological unemployment, business model evolution the sharing economy.
- In Race Against the Machine, Erick Brynjolfsson and Adrew McAfee document the impact of the digital revolution on employment and the economy. They showed that for the first time productivity has been decoupled from jobs resulting in a jobless recovery from the recession of 2008/09. Productivity and profits have increased while wages and median incomes in the US have declined.
- Computers are getting smarter and more intuitive. Automoation can be applied in more and more situations resulting in technological unemployment in all industries. Farmers, meter readers, mail carriers, news reporters, travel agents and garbage collectors have all seen decreases in employment as a result of technology.
- Economists call the messy process of process when adopting new technology results in the destruction of some jobs and the creation of other ‘creative destruction’. Creative destruction isn’t a new phenomenon. In 1812, Luddites in England protested the loss of weavers jobs by destroying the new factory weaving machines. Today the protests are focused on the elimination of manufacturing jobs.
- Some jobs, like general labourers in manufacturers are more vulnerable to job loss to technology. This study on the Future of Employment in 2013 identified telemarketers and accountants particularly vulnerable while roles that require social intelligence, creativity, perception and manipulation or dexterity are less vulnerable.
- But there’s an even bigger picture to consider. When Henry Ford II was establishingin the first automated assembly lines he is reported to have asked Walter Reuther, a major labour leader, “How will you get those robots to pay your union dues?”, to which Mr. Reuther replied, “How are you going to get them to buy your cars?”
- We are also seeing an evolution in the way that business is being done. A PWC report: the Future of Work, described 3 dominant work models in the future. Blue: Mega corporations / mini-states focused on profit and market Green: Conscious capitalists with broader social and environmental objectives Orange: Project based companies that outsource work to highly specialized networks
- The Orange World will see larger companies breaking down into smaller collaborative organizations that are highly specialized. These organizations rely on virtual collaboration to bring together the independent workers and small teams on project based work. Businesses in the orange world maximize flexibility and minimize fixed costs.
- The world of independent workers is already here. Independent workers are selling their goods and services to global markets via virtual marketplaces Platforms like eBay, Etsy and Amazon are marketplace focused on goods while freelancer, task rabbit and fiverr provide similar marketplaces for freelancers and service based workers.
- Growing number of business are also participating in the the sharing economy providing alternatives models for hotels, and taxis and even pet boarding. Companies like zipcar and spinlister provide alternatives to car and bike ownership This new world includes crowdfunding sources like kickstarter and indiegogo while open source software provides inexpensive operating systems and websites.
- So what does this all mean? Automation has created a jobless recovery. The rebound in productivity hasn’t resulted in comparable increases in employment. The workforce needs new skill sets and supports to keep up with the pace of technological change and businesses need assistance to keep their workforce current.
- Education will be a key focus for economic developers. Communities will need to work with educational institutions to support continued investment and renewal of educational programs particularly in Science Technology, Engineering & Math programs. All educational programs will need a technology foundation to prepare workers for jobs we haven't yet imagined.
- Increasing #s of entrepreneurs will continue to need services to help businesses get started and to scale up. The services to assist independent workers will go way beyond business planning including business incubators, mentors, network development, co-working, 3rd places and popup stores
- Tax and policy implications are also significant. Decreasing commercial & industrial assessment and shadow economies could impact our existing tax system The sharing economy is resulting in clashes between municipalities and these new businesses as services like Uber and AirBnB challenge existing regulations. There are implications for social programs as we see an Increase in workers in precarious employment and independent workers fall outside employment insurance, pension programs and benefits.
- Providing the infrastructure is also key. Access to fast and reliable internet service is even important for the future of local economies. A mobile, virtual workforce is more transient so placemaking will be key to attracting and retaining residents and businesses.
- Economic developers have always been challenged to provide meaningful measures of their performance. Measurement tools will be even more challenged in thiscomplex environment. Conventional measures of jobs and assessment growth will not be accurate reflections of the effectiveness of the economic development office.
- To summarize, we are in the midst of a time of creative destruction. Technology is eliminating all kinds of jobs while it creates new ones. The traditional business model is evolving, There are new opportunities for independent workers. The sharing economy is challenging old regulations and tax systems. The mobile work force will require a greater emphasis on attracting and retaining a mobile workforce
- Darwin said “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” Despite the efforts of the Luddites, the British weaving industry was forever changed by new weaving machines. Our future success as economic developers will be dependent on our ability to assist workers, businesses and governments adapt and respond to change.
- Thank you for your attention.