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Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                    The Future of Media
                       and Content
               Presentation at TIME 2008 December 2, 2008
                              Istanbul, Turkey
                               Gerd Leonhard
                          www.mediafuturist.com
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                Content
              Was




                               Legislation
     Telecom                   Government
                               Regulation
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                                    Legislation
                                    Government
                                    Regulation
                                                   Will be...
                                      The
                                     Users
                                  fka Consumers




                               Telecom   Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




      Google China President Kai Fu Lee:
     Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly,
        is the key to sustainable growth
Mutual Interest
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                 - the Keyword
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                   3G Wireless Futures
           Ability to connect * and INTERACT
           Ability to share EVERYTHING
           Hunger for content



    Without 3G




        With 3 G




+ Wifi / Wimax
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




             The difference between dial-up, fixed
                and low-bandwidth Internet and
             high-speed, mobile Internet is even
                bigger than going from offline to
                      online, to begin with.


                               100 : 1
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               The challenge: New Models!
                               Content Consumption (all)
                               Revenue Potential
                               Success with Traditional Content Models




Was                               Is               2 years               5 years
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


    A very serious change - and huge opportunity!


                               Copy Economy



 Access / Usage /
 Sharing Economy
Sharing is the key driver
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



        But this is not about technology...




            The Age of Collaboration
       Emerging cultural practices
                 New business models
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                   Turkey Internet Penetration
                                   Turkey Mobile Penetration
         Cost of Internet Access       Cost of Storage           Skills Required




                                                                                   225%




                                                 150%

                          120%

                                                                     90%

                                      60%
           37%



                 Today                  2-3 years                      5-7 years
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




         Cost of Internet Access   Cost of Storage   Skills Required




Today                              2-3 years                           5-7 year
        Sharing                    Co-Creation
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Digital Natives: our future and the new $$$$
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Truly connected means...


            We can find out ...anything
        We decide who gets to market to us
             Niches are the new hits
  We find out we can actually create things, too!
We collaborate to get very large jobs done, together
 We collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm
    We can serve the world (and vice versa)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               The crisis of the Content Business
• Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’
• The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly
    growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!)
•   Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model
    (Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...)
•   Broadband culture drives further commodization
•   What used to be paid for is now often free
•   Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for
    the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!)
•   Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition
•   There is more content consumption than ever before -
    but where is the ‘new money’?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                      The lesson:
                    You’ll have to get
                    wet if you want to
                           learn
                          how to
                           swim.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



     The new ways of making money
     with Content are going to be quite
         unlike the traditional ways
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               Freemium
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


   The new ways of making money with
     Communications are going to be
      drastically expanded from the
             traditional ways
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               The next SMS
                                      is
                                 a) Content
                                  b) Social
                               Communication
                               around Content
                               (Social Media)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  The new ways of
   Advertising are
 going to be totally
unlike the traditional
        ways
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Next Generation Advertising
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



  Drastic role changes are imminent.

        Experience Platform
        Service Pipe

     Content Pipe

                       Data
                       Pipe
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Communications




             Advertising                 Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                       We
                                     cannot
                                   wall-in our
                               Content in this future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                           We
                         cannot
                     generate enough
                new values without Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




           Disruption

  Reinvention
The Copyright Dilemma
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                 Copy
The Copyright Dilemma
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                                                       Right
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Right ... for the law - wrong for the $$
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




     •     Is the quest for Control realistic?
     •     Will it make Money?
     •     Will it be fair and equitable?
     •     Will it create a Culture & Society
          in which we will want to live in?
Stop this?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


  The opportunity
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 The past: making your customers angry
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                       ~1910

                                    +                       =


                                   +
                                                       =
                                         ~2009?
The logic
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




‣        Music is included in network access
‣        Fees are paid but cross-subsidized
‣         Music is cost-neutral to Networks
‣         User pays ‘with attention’ or cash
‣           Most uses will ‘will like free’
‣        Data is shared with content owners
‣         Multiple upsell options can unfold
‣        Rightholders get paid for each use
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               The new ecosystem: Example: Music

                                       Extra Community Services
                                        Video, Games, Interactive

                                            Preferred access (fans)

                                            Live Recordings on-demand

                                                     Merchandising

                                                 High-definition offerings

  Bundled Music, Feels Like Free, Unlimited, no DRM,
               Streams & Downloads
                                * followed by other Content!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Games > Music > Film / TV > Books >>


                   Command & Control
                      becomes
      Coordinate & Cultivate
                               *Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


     More access = More use of Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               How to make the users happy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                       In a networked culture,
                      a world of NO permission
                          is a world of NO $
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
      Average Available Time                    Available Choices        Average Available Attention



                               Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)

    100%



      75%



      50%



      25%



        0%
          Was                              Is                   Soon                 The Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
         Amount of Input                                   Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation
         Need for Community of Content

                               Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard)

    100%



      75%



      50%



      25%



        0%
          Was                              Is                   Soon                 The Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




              It’s not the free copy that
                      counts - it’s
                               everything
                               around it!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                                   Instead of Control




                     http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/
Search IS Media.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Media is Social.
                               Search is Social.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


Selling content: finding new money sources
                Next Generation Advertising     Freemium
                Flat Rates & Bundles            New Generatives
                Sell Copies *Take 2             3rd party pays (cross subsidies)




                                   20%              20%



                                                          10%
                               15%



                                              35%
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Value of ‘a Copy’            Value of CONTEXT
                               Value of Meta-Content        Value of Experiences

                                      Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
                                                                             Value of Context
    100%
                                                                          Value of Experience
                                                                        Value of Meta-Content

      75%



      50%



      25%
                                                                         Value of ‘a Copy’

        0%
          Was                            Is                  Soon              The Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               New Value: Meta-Content
                               *aka Data


                       •       User ratings & recommendations
                       •       User reviews
                       •       User tagging and annotating
                       •       User bookmarking
                       •       User sharing / forwarding
                       •       User editing / remixing
                       •       User republishing
The new Content Economy: the User is a major force
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



    P e r m i s s i o n .
    E n g a g e m e n t .
    C o n v e r s a t i o n .
    T h e                      F u t u r e .
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
                                    Copy Based Revenues
                                    Attention Based Revenues




  Was                          Is           Soon       Near Future Mid-term Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




•   Give Permission - and collect
   revenue shares
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



   Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized
   the solution is to offer valuable intangibles:
  1. Immediacy    - priority access, immediate delivery
   2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ
   3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance
   4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing
   5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however
   6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging
   7. Community (i.e. the Tribes)
   8. Findability & Curation
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
                               To summarize




      Telecom                                 Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



    Thanks for listening!


 TALK BACK:
 ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
 ★ twitter.com/gleonhard
 ★ facebook: gleonhard
 ★ more presentations at
       www.mediafuturist.com
 ★     Thought-Stream at
       www.gerdstream.com

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The Future Of Media And Content Gerd Leonhard at TIME 08 Istanbul

  • 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Media and Content Presentation at TIME 2008 December 2, 2008 Istanbul, Turkey Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com
  • 2. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content Was Legislation Telecom Government Regulation
  • 3. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Legislation Government Regulation Will be... The Users fka Consumers Telecom Content
  • 4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Google China President Kai Fu Lee: Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly, is the key to sustainable growth
  • 5. Mutual Interest Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist - the Keyword
  • 6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3G Wireless Futures Ability to connect * and INTERACT Ability to share EVERYTHING Hunger for content Without 3G With 3 G + Wifi / Wimax
  • 7. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The difference between dial-up, fixed and low-bandwidth Internet and high-speed, mobile Internet is even bigger than going from offline to online, to begin with. 100 : 1
  • 8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The challenge: New Models! Content Consumption (all) Revenue Potential Success with Traditional Content Models Was Is 2 years 5 years
  • 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A very serious change - and huge opportunity! Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy
  • 10. Sharing is the key driver Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 11. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist But this is not about technology... The Age of Collaboration Emerging cultural practices New business models
  • 12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Turkey Internet Penetration Turkey Mobile Penetration Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required 225% 150% 120% 90% 60% 37% Today 2-3 years 5-7 years
  • 13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required Today 2-3 years 5-7 year Sharing Co-Creation
  • 14. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Digital Natives: our future and the new $$$$
  • 15. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Truly connected means... We can find out ...anything We decide who gets to market to us Niches are the new hits We find out we can actually create things, too! We collaborate to get very large jobs done, together We collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm We can serve the world (and vice versa)
  • 16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future: connecting the users is the key to success
  • 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The crisis of the Content Business • Mere copies of content are de-facto ‘free’ • The Internet is a giant copy machine - and it’s rapidly growing in size and reach (and now: mobile!) • Selling copies is a rapidly declining business model (Music, DVDs, Magazines, Newspapers...) • Broadband culture drives further commodization • What used to be paid for is now often free • Digital revenues are not nearly enough to make up for the loss of physical sales (1:5 ratio!) • Developing countries have no pay-by-unit tradition • There is more content consumption than ever before - but where is the ‘new money’?
  • 18. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The lesson: You’ll have to get wet if you want to learn how to swim.
  • 19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of making money with Content are going to be quite unlike the traditional ways
  • 20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Freemium
  • 21. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of making money with Communications are going to be drastically expanded from the traditional ways
  • 22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The next SMS is a) Content b) Social Communication around Content (Social Media)
  • 23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ways of Advertising are going to be totally unlike the traditional ways
  • 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Next Generation Advertising
  • 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Drastic role changes are imminent. Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe
  • 26. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Communications Advertising Content
  • 27. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We cannot wall-in our Content in this future
  • 28. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist We cannot generate enough new values without Content
  • 29. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Disruption Reinvention
  • 30. The Copyright Dilemma Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Copy
  • 31. The Copyright Dilemma Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Right
  • 32. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Right ... for the law - wrong for the $$
  • 33. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Is the quest for Control realistic? • Will it make Money? • Will it be fair and equitable? • Will it create a Culture & Society in which we will want to live in?
  • 34. Stop this? Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 35. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The opportunity
  • 36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The past: making your customers angry
  • 38. The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ~1910 + = + = ~2009?
  • 39. The logic Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist ‣ Music is included in network access ‣ Fees are paid but cross-subsidized ‣ Music is cost-neutral to Networks ‣ User pays ‘with attention’ or cash ‣ Most uses will ‘will like free’ ‣ Data is shared with content owners ‣ Multiple upsell options can unfold ‣ Rightholders get paid for each use
  • 40. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The new ecosystem: Example: Music Extra Community Services Video, Games, Interactive Preferred access (fans) Live Recordings on-demand Merchandising High-definition offerings Bundled Music, Feels Like Free, Unlimited, no DRM, Streams & Downloads * followed by other Content!
  • 41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Games > Music > Film / TV > Books >> Command & Control becomes Coordinate & Cultivate *Thomas Malone “The Future of Work”
  • 42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist More access = More use of Content
  • 43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist http://flickr.com/photos/jan1020/
  • 44. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How to make the users happy
  • 45. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist In a networked culture, a world of NO permission is a world of NO $
  • 46. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Average Available Time Available Choices Average Available Attention Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 47. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Amount of Input Need for Selection, Filtering & Curation Need for Community of Content Attention, Choice & Curation Trends (Gerd Leonhard) 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 48. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist It’s not the free copy that counts - it’s everything around it!
  • 49. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Instead of Control http://flickr.com/photos/foxwillow/
  • 50. Search IS Media. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Media is Social. Search is Social.
  • 51. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Selling content: finding new money sources Next Generation Advertising Freemium Flat Rates & Bundles New Generatives Sell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies) 20% 20% 10% 15% 35%
  • 52. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 53. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New Value: Meta-Content *aka Data • User ratings & recommendations • User reviews • User tagging and annotating • User bookmarking • User sharing / forwarding • User editing / remixing • User republishing
  • 54. The new Content Economy: the User is a major force Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 55. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist P e r m i s s i o n . E n g a g e m e n t . C o n v e r s a t i o n . T h e F u t u r e .
  • 56. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  • 57. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Give Permission - and collect revenue shares
  • 58. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: When an offering becomes commoditized the solution is to offer valuable intangibles: 1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery 2. Personalization - tailored just for you... ʻMeCastʼ 3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance 4. Authenticity - making sure itʼs the real thing 5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however 6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging 7. Community (i.e. the Tribes) 8. Findability & Curation
  • 59. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To summarize Telecom Content
  • 60. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for listening! TALK BACK: ★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com ★ twitter.com/gleonhard ★ facebook: gleonhard ★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com ★ Thought-Stream at www.gerdstream.com