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Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




        The End of Control &
        The Future of Content
        Gerd Leonhard @Google San Francisco March 2 2009
                               www.mediafuturist.com
                               www.endofcontrol.com
Some recommended resources
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                       Wikinomics (Don Tapscott)
                                 The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler)
                                  Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky)
                                      Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe)
                                      The Technium (Kevin Kelly)
The global economic fabric has changed
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                           Some trusted old business models
                           seem to have suddenly stopped
                                            working
                               Dominance becomes much harder to achieve
                                  Collaboration emerges as
                                 essential success paradigm
                          Open systems are starting to ‘win-
                                        win’ everywhere
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks):

 “Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and

     Linux represent the next   stage of

                  human organization”
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                         Words... and Actions?




                                      Source: Accenture 08
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  Production Competition Authority
     Copyright Ownership Control




‘Developing’ Countries          ‘Developed’ Countries

Empowered Individuals           Incumbent Companies

                               Authorized Professionals
Professional Amateurs
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                Defining Control



                                  Own the customer...
                                  Control distribution...
                               Target and hit consumers...
                                   Fight competition...
                                    I win you lose
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




    It used to be
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Past: Control The Future: Trust




Source: Flickr.com/francesco_e
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               To
From
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



Together, Broadband Culture, Mobility
  and Convergence are quickly re-
    defining how we think about:

• Privacy
• Authority
• Ownership / Copyright
• Value (period) i.e. ‘Selling’ and Marketing
• R&D, and Production
• Work
• Education
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


3D printers: downloading products
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  Imagine using a software that encodes detailed
  specifications of something and then seeing
  that object emerge from a box on your desk no
  bigger than a microwave oven...(source: ECommerce Times)
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



One of Google’s challenges is to
   guide content creators
and owners into this new world
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Copy Economy



 Access / Usage /
 Sharing Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                                How to reach the people
                                How not to be     formerly known as
                               commoditized?         consumers?

                                                 How to make sure they
                     How to maintain value?       keep coming back?

                                                    What to give away
                                                    and what to sell?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


     Content 2.0: a new ecosystem
           Content and application players connect
           with search engines, web portals, social
              networks, brands and telecoms to
             determine a new balance of power.
Starting in 2009:
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




 • Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers
 • Deep collaboration becomes the KEY
   requirement for creating new business opps
 • Over-the top layers (search, social media...)
   must come down, telecoms must move up!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


                                    All of a sudden

                                               COMMU-
                                                     MEDIA
                                            NICATION
                                                       &
                                     ADVER-     &
SEARCH                    CONTENT                    ENTER-
                                     TISING           TAIN-
                                               TELE- MENT
                                               COM
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


And finally: TV2.0
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




         The printing press
         gave birth to
         Copyright
         The Internet
         gives birth to
         Sharing Rights
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist



                               The Sharing Economy Logic
                                 ...the Output (i.e. publish, re-
                                 mix, co-create, life-stream...)
                                 the Input (i.e. remuneration in
                                 cash, attention, reputation...)
                                 ... the Thruput (i.e. usage
                                 data, meta content, attention
                                 trails >> New Data Economics)
‘Old’ Content Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
But now...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




   Chris ‘Free Wired LongTail’ Anderson:
‘Free’ gets my Attention...
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




     Merit and Trust gets my Money.
Now Consumers... dictate!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A new Content Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                       3rd Party
                                         Pays
                           Attention
                                       I Pay
  Value &
   Merit
A A really new Content Economy
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




t                      Ads 2.0
     3rd Party
t
                      Data Usage
       Pays
e
                       Affiliates
n
t
                      Premiums
i
                 I Pay   UGC
o
                       Sharing
n                      Bundles
User = Content = $$$
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Source: kk.org
Imho,
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




            Google needs to get involved
                       in making ‘free’ Internet
                               content legal and
                                 monetizable
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
                        Copy Based Revenues    Attention Based Revenues

10.0




 7.5




 5.0




 2.5




   0
                 Was              Is          Soon       Near Future      Mid-term Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


       The Content Industries are going...




                                 To




 From
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  Content 2.0:
    make it available
    get users ‘addicted’
    sell everything around
  and up from Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 What we can learn from the music industry: the focus on
 Control is not a profitable business model for the Future
Trust... IS!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


 Revenues are a Consequence of Attention


                               Where ever attention
                                flows, money will
                                      follow




                                        Kevin Kelly @ kk.org
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


        What is wrong with this picture?
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


A victim of too much control: Music
2009
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
A tough gig: bridging
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                  Trust
                        Control
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


           Uncorking the Trust Economy




                               http://flickr.com/photos/ryananderson/
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               Value of ‘a Copy’            Value of CONTEXT
                               Value of Meta-Content        Value of Experiences
                               Value of Packaging
                                      Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)
                                                                             Value of Context
    100%
                                                                          Value of Experience
                                                                        Value of Meta-Content
                                                                           Value of Packaging
      75%



      50%



      25%
                                                                         Value of ‘a Copy’

         0%
           Was                           Is                  Soon              The Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

     21st century content economics
                       influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler...

                                     Conversation
                                  Convenience
                               Selection / Filtering
                               Packaging
                       Individualization
               Immediacy
 Trust
Content Economy Trends
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                 Music           Video    Games       Books       Mags & Print

                          Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services
 100%


   75%


   50%


   25%


     0%
       2008                      2009        2010          2012           2015
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




     Filter Failure



              Clay Shirky, author of quot;Here Comes Everybodyquot; and
                professor of new media at New York University:

                 We suffer quot;not from information
                  overload but filtering failure”
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




          The Ubiquity of Content creates
         the increasing need for Filtering &
          Packaging - and in some cases,
         Filters will be paid-for
           while the Content
                may...not!
                          http://flickr.com/photos/meganmcintosh/
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


  2009: The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’

       Experience Platform
       Service Pipe

     Content Pipe

                    Data
                    Pipe
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                                 Telecom Control Level
                                 Google Opportunity

       10


     7.5


         5


     2.5


         0
          Calls                SMS    Data   Content   Services Experiences
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

                               The Crowd + the Cloud = Future
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




       Information > Conversation
       Interruption > Engagement
       Annoyance > Entertainment
      This is an Ad > This is Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist


• Display ads are the past -
  engagement, involvement
  and interactivity are the future
• The currency is Personal
  Information & Data: getting it /
  buying it, renting it, borrowing
  it, selling it... keeping it
• The new, old deal: in
  exchange for value, we
  surrender valuable data
• The new creative mission:
  products and services that
  have advertising and
  marketing built-in!
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




  New Data                                   New Content
                                              Economy
  Economy



                                  Next
                               Generation
                               Advertising
Some of the Players in this turf
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                                                           New
  New                                                    Content
  Data                                                   Economy
Economy


                                          Next
                                       Generation
                                       Advertising
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Communications




              Advertising                Content
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Source: Flickr.com/unknown




             Hollywood’s Control
              Crisis is a huge
                opportunity.
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




     The fight for Control was a fight for
                 Distribution.
     The flight for Attention is a fight for
                     Trust.
      The beneficiaries of Control were
                 Monopolies.
     The beneficiaries of Trust are those
                               that Collaborate
Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist




                               Thanks for listening



   Gerd Leonhard
   www.mediafuturist.com
   Twitter.com/gleonhard
   gerd@mediafuturist.com

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The End Of Control and the Future of Content: Futurist Gerd Leonhard Authors@Google (San Francisco)

  • 1. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The End of Control & The Future of Content Gerd Leonhard @Google San Francisco March 2 2009 www.mediafuturist.com www.endofcontrol.com
  • 2. Some recommended resources Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Wikinomics (Don Tapscott) The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler) Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky) Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe) The Technium (Kevin Kelly)
  • 3. The global economic fabric has changed Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Some trusted old business models seem to have suddenly stopped working Dominance becomes much harder to achieve Collaboration emerges as essential success paradigm Open systems are starting to ‘win- win’ everywhere
  • 4. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks): “Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and Linux represent the next stage of human organization”
  • 5. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Words... and Actions? Source: Accenture 08
  • 6. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Production Competition Authority Copyright Ownership Control ‘Developing’ Countries ‘Developed’ Countries Empowered Individuals Incumbent Companies Authorized Professionals Professional Amateurs
  • 8. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Defining Control Own the customer... Control distribution... Target and hit consumers... Fight competition... I win you lose
  • 9. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist It used to be
  • 10. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Past: Control The Future: Trust Source: Flickr.com/francesco_e
  • 12. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist To From
  • 13. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Together, Broadband Culture, Mobility and Convergence are quickly re- defining how we think about: • Privacy • Authority • Ownership / Copyright • Value (period) i.e. ‘Selling’ and Marketing • R&D, and Production • Work • Education
  • 15. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3D printers: downloading products
  • 16. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Imagine using a software that encodes detailed specifications of something and then seeing that object emerge from a box on your desk no bigger than a microwave oven...(source: ECommerce Times)
  • 17. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist One of Google’s challenges is to guide content creators and owners into this new world
  • 18. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Copy Economy Access / Usage / Sharing Economy
  • 19. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist How to reach the people How not to be formerly known as commoditized? consumers? How to make sure they How to maintain value? keep coming back? What to give away and what to sell?
  • 20. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content 2.0: a new ecosystem Content and application players connect with search engines, web portals, social networks, brands and telecoms to determine a new balance of power.
  • 21. Starting in 2009: Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Total convergence of Telecom & Web Layers • Deep collaboration becomes the KEY requirement for creating new business opps • Over-the top layers (search, social media...) must come down, telecoms must move up!
  • 22. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist All of a sudden COMMU- MEDIA NICATION & ADVER- & SEARCH CONTENT ENTER- TISING TAIN- TELE- MENT COM
  • 23. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist And finally: TV2.0
  • 24. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The printing press gave birth to Copyright The Internet gives birth to Sharing Rights
  • 25. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Sharing Economy Logic ...the Output (i.e. publish, re- mix, co-create, life-stream...) the Input (i.e. remuneration in cash, attention, reputation...) ... the Thruput (i.e. usage data, meta content, attention trails >> New Data Economics)
  • 26. ‘Old’ Content Economy Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 27. But now... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Chris ‘Free Wired LongTail’ Anderson:
  • 28. ‘Free’ gets my Attention... Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Merit and Trust gets my Money.
  • 29. Now Consumers... dictate! Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 30. A new Content Economy Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 31. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3rd Party Pays Attention I Pay Value & Merit
  • 32. A A really new Content Economy Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist t Ads 2.0 3rd Party t Data Usage Pays e Affiliates n t Premiums i I Pay UGC o Sharing n Bundles
  • 33. User = Content = $$$ Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 34. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Source: kk.org
  • 35. Imho, Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Google needs to get involved in making ‘free’ Internet content legal and monetizable
  • 36. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes Copy Based Revenues Attention Based Revenues 10.0 7.5 5.0 2.5 0 Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future
  • 37. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Content Industries are going... To From
  • 38. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Content 2.0: make it available get users ‘addicted’ sell everything around and up from Content
  • 39. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What we can learn from the music industry: the focus on Control is not a profitable business model for the Future
  • 40. Trust... IS! Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 41. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Revenues are a Consequence of Attention Where ever attention flows, money will follow Kevin Kelly @ kk.org
  • 42. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist What is wrong with this picture?
  • 43. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist A victim of too much control: Music
  • 45. A tough gig: bridging Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist
  • 46. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Trust Control
  • 47. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Uncorking the Trust Economy http://flickr.com/photos/ryananderson/
  • 48. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXT Value of Meta-Content Value of Experiences Value of Packaging Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard) Value of Context 100% Value of Experience Value of Meta-Content Value of Packaging 75% 50% 25% Value of ‘a Copy’ 0% Was Is Soon The Future
  • 49. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 21st century content economics influenced by Kevin Kelly, Chris Anderson, Don Tapscott, Yochai Benkler... Conversation Convenience Selection / Filtering Packaging Individualization Immediacy Trust
  • 50. Content Economy Trends Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Music Video Games Books Mags & Print Percentage of Revenues from Digital Services 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2012 2015
  • 51. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Filter Failure Clay Shirky, author of quot;Here Comes Everybodyquot; and professor of new media at New York University: We suffer quot;not from information overload but filtering failure”
  • 52. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Ubiquity of Content creates the increasing need for Filtering & Packaging - and in some cases, Filters will be paid-for while the Content may...not! http://flickr.com/photos/meganmcintosh/
  • 53. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 2009: The Redefinition of ‘Telecom’ Experience Platform Service Pipe Content Pipe Data Pipe
  • 54. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Telecom Control Level Google Opportunity 10 7.5 5 2.5 0 Calls SMS Data Content Services Experiences
  • 55. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Crowd + the Cloud = Future
  • 56. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Information > Conversation Interruption > Engagement Annoyance > Entertainment This is an Ad > This is Content
  • 57. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist • Display ads are the past - engagement, involvement and interactivity are the future • The currency is Personal Information & Data: getting it / buying it, renting it, borrowing it, selling it... keeping it • The new, old deal: in exchange for value, we surrender valuable data • The new creative mission: products and services that have advertising and marketing built-in!
  • 59. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New Data New Content Economy Economy Next Generation Advertising
  • 60. Some of the Players in this turf Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist New New Content Data Economy Economy Next Generation Advertising
  • 61. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Communications Advertising Content
  • 62. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Source: Flickr.com/unknown Hollywood’s Control Crisis is a huge opportunity.
  • 63. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The fight for Control was a fight for Distribution. The flight for Attention is a fight for Trust. The beneficiaries of Control were Monopolies. The beneficiaries of Trust are those that Collaborate
  • 64. Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Thanks for listening Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com Twitter.com/gleonhard gerd@mediafuturist.com