Gerd Leonhard Npox 2008

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

The End of Control, the People formerly
known as Consumers... and the Future of
Broadcasting

Presentation at NPOX 2008
November 17 2008
by Gerd Leonhard
www.mediafuturist.com

Remember?


How life changes with more bandwidth!
We often overestimate how quickly change will happen

We often underestimate the magnitude of the changes

when it does happen


12-18 months for some very very
drastic changes!


Source: kk.org


But: this is not about technology

Emerging Cultural Practices


Br o a d b a n d C u l tu r e


! If you
want to
learn how
to swim
you’ll have
to get wet!


A few shocking facts from the U.S.


The Digital Natives: Internet over TV


The Internet takes time away from all other Media

If the future
What to do?
audience migrates to
the Internet then you
must BECOME the
Internet for them!


Who is the DJ?

Remember when you had a

Monopoly in
Attention?

Emerging cultural practices...

So what are those practices?
• I want it when I want it [time-shifting]
• I want it how and where I want it
[place-shifting]
• I want to be able to influence, talk back,
determine [control-shifting]
• I want real value for my money - or else...
[money-shifting]
• I want real value for my attention - or else...
[attention-shifting]


To summarize


I program my media - it
does not program me!


A huge challenge


Because

In all Media, Push is
becoming Pull


Broadband Consequences

Now we need
• Filters
• Curators
• Context
• Relevance
• Merit
• Humanness


Are you...?


The Future: more and
more fragmentation..
and (Re)-Aggregation


Life
Content Media

Source: Flickr hillarylmrore

Serious role changes


Instead of Control, Trust is the key to success in a Networked World

http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2008/apr/21/netmusic


Once technology becomes dead-simple...


Mainstream Media and the
‘Wisdom of the Crowds’


The public TV / Radio license and...
Users willing to pay $$ for Google...?


Why?

Finding and being Found.
Sharing.
Communicating.
Connecting

Sharing is the key


Content Creators
Content Users
Listeners
Viewers

Content: UGC is a MAJOR force


Image via flickr.com/photos/spursfan_ace/

People now pay more to express
themselves, and less to consume


Crowd + Cloud = Serious Potential


No archive... no attention!

http://flickr.com/photos/inweaknessbe/


Does this worry you?


Kevin Kelly @ kk.org: The key is to offer valuable intangibles:

1. Immediacy - priority access, immediate delivery
2. Personalization - tailored just for you... !MeCastquot;
3. Interpretation & Filtering - support and guidance
4. Authenticity - making sure itquot;s the real thing
5. Accessibility - wherever, whenever, however
6. Embodiment, Experience & Packaging
7. Community (i.e. the Tribes)
8. Findability & Curation


The Future of Content: Attention-based Income Explodes
Copy Based Revenues
Attention Based Revenues
10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

Was 0
Is
Soon
Near Future
Mid-term Future


Users =

= Users


This is over


Moving from take-down to permission,
from NO to YES

Rights Societies!


Be trusted or... Perish!


This will NOT work in the Future

A World of No becomes a
World of Yes


Together, Broadband Culture and
Mobility will re-define how we think
about:

• Privacy
• Authority
• Ownership / Copyright
• ‘Selling’ (and Marketing)
• Work
• Education


Put yourself in the middle of all of it!

Broadcaster

I m a g i n e
Your Your
TV Radio


Imagine a multi platform multi device Google Content Reader:

Broadcasters fill the
need for Trust, for
filtering Choice, for
Curation


Social
Networks are
the
Next
Broad-
casters


EU Broadcasting in 3-5 years
• 100% digital and fully converged with the Internet
• All stations everywhere,anytime, any way we want
• Video and Audio converging
• Community features at the center
• Geography fades, borders become soft
• Radio license is first questioned and then
expanded (based on a Flat Rate for Digital Music)
• Advertising 2.0 emerges as major funding option
• Public Radio offers full archives on-demand


Some trigger factors:
!Highspeed Wireless Internet everywhere
!WiBro in the car
!4G Wireless cell phone networks fully deployed
!Radios with WLAN chips
!Cell phones with DAB receivers (and WLAN)
!Mobile computing devices that talk effortlessly
to each other
!Web5.0 as easy as a TV remote control
!Everyone networked


The Digital Music Flat Rate is inevitable
~1910

+ =

+ =

~2009?


The 6 Inevitables

1. Broadcasting must support time-shifting
2. Broadcasting must support space-shifting
3. Broadcasting must support sharing
4. Broadcasting must support interactivity
5. Broadcasting must support community
6. Broadband must return to be ‘social media’

DO

Summary:


The dangers of an open,
shared and connected
ecosystem will always be less
than those of a closed &
controlled ecosystem


Thanks for listening!

! Email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com
! Download this presentation at www.mediafuturist.com
! Lifestream at www.gerdstream.com
! Twitter.com: gleonhard

Gerd Leonhard Npox 2008

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