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Breaking the Climate Deadlock
      the future of clean power generation




Vinod Khosla
Khosla Ventures
Nov 2008
                                         1
Where Does Electricity Come From?
“China and India together
 account for 79 percent of the
projected increase in world coal
  consumption from 2005 to
             2030”

                EIA

                               3
“At the end of 2005, China had an estimated
     299 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity in
operation. To meet the demand for electricity
    that is expected to accompany its rapid
economic growth, an additional 735 gigawatts
  of coal-fired capacity (net of retirements) is
  projected to be brought on line in China by
                     2030 ”


                        EIA
                                              4
Key Issues

› Electricity : ~40% of man-made CO2



› Coal: largest culprit



› Action needed for 80% reduction by 2050




                                            5
What Can Solar Do?

› Solar: near zero-emissions power!

› 1% of world’s desert: meet all power demand

  › US: 100 x 100 mile area in Nevada
  › India: less than 1% of land area
  › Europe: Less than 3% of Morocco’s land




                                                6
Scalability: solar

                                                  Wind
                                                   waves


   SOLAR
                                                               Gas
                                                OTEC
                                                                  Oil
                                          BIO

                               HYDRO
  World
  energy
                                                            Uranium
  use



                                                           COAL
       R. Perez et al.

                                                                   7

    Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona
Global Solar Irradiance Map




                                                  8
Source: Ecole des Mines de Paris / Armines 2006
What Must Solar Achieve to Succeed?

› Cost less than fossil fuels
   › ($0.10-0.12KWh in 2007 dollars)




› “Dispatchable” generation
   › Storage key for intermittent sources




› Reliability and uptime equiv. to fossil fuels

                                                  9
carbon: irrational policies


   Germany: 57% world PV                                  US: 7% world PV




                                                                                                                         10
Source: Creating a U.S. Market for Solar Energy, by Rhone Resch, President of the Solar Energy Industries Association.
carbon: irrational policies

› Solar PV installations in the Bay Area
  ›Moscone Center vs. San Jose; 20% improvement in isolation!
  › Cost of Moscone center PV: $6,222 per KW
       › At $0.12KWh, 2.2% return on investment (below inflation!)




› Warner-Lieberman bill
  › giving credits away to today’s inefficient technologies!


› Zero-Emission Buildings
  › UK estimate (40% higher home building cost)


                                                                     11
carbon: California solar roofs program

› California Million Solar Roofs Program
 › $3.3 billion

 › Goal: 3,000 MW by 2017
         solutions should make a
 › California generation capacity (2003) ≈ 61 GW
               material impact!

› Best case-scenario – less than 5% of CA capacity!



                                                   12
Solar Power: PV

› Advantage: distributed power-generation



› Ideal where peak demand = max solar radiation



› Scaling: no storage, no base-load power



› SEIA: Grid parity by 2015 (US)

                                                  13
Solar Power: Solar Thermal

› Advantage: Base-load power
   › thermal storage is key



› Low technical risk, low adoption risk
   › California operations since the 1980’s



› Primary risk: Cost per KW of installed capacity



                                                    14
Solar Thermal Power: 1914
Illustrative Solar Thermal Plant




                                   16
Storage For Time-shifting


                               To Storage
Plant Output




                                                      From
                             Direct Solar            Storage From
                                 Direct Solar              Storage
                               Direct Solar




               6 AM   9 AM       12 PM        3 PM     6 PM          9 PM
                                                                      17
                               Time of Day
solar thermal: day / night power




                                   18
       Source: John O’Donnell
thermal storage is cheap

                                                                                         Heat/Air/Hydro
                      Electricity

     › Flywheel ≈ $4000/kWh                                                       › Molten Salt ≈ $45/kWh



     › VRB batt ≈ $350-600/kWh                                                    › Concrete ≈ $25-45KWh
  increased cost of power                                                           lower cost of power


                                                                                  ›      CAES, Pumped Hydro



                                                                                                                                           19
Source: NREL for heat storage (2007), Dr. Doerte Laing, DLR (2008), VRB battery costs from company and Appalachian Power, CAISO estimate
for Flywheel costs (Beacon Power)
thermal energy storage
› Commercial Available Today
  › Steam Accumulator
  › molten salt storage based on nitrate salts



› In Testing
  › Solid medium sensible heat storage - concrete storage
  › Latent heat - PCM storage
  › Combined storage system (concrete/PCM) for
    water/steam fluid
  › Improved molten salt storage concepts
  › Solid media storage for Solar Tower with Air Receiver

                                                                                20
                                           Source: Doerte Laing , German Aerospace center
Policy Needs: Short-Term

› Expansion of technology-neutral RPS’
   › More economic than feed-in tariffs



› Stabilization incentive standards


› Low-cost capital availability
   › Cost of capital is key determinant of cost




                                                  21
Policy Needs: Med-Term

› Carbon pricing framework




› Investment in transmission infrastructure
  › Focus on regional power transmissions (i.e - DESERTEC)




                                                         22
Scalability:Land is not (remotely) a constraint

                                   3000 km




                                                                       world electricity demand
                                                                           (18,000 TWh/y)
                                                                        can be produced from
                                                                            300 x 300 km²
    More than 90% of world pp could be served                            =0.23% of all deserts
    by clean power from deserts (DESERTEC.org) !                     distributed over “10 000” sites

                                                                                                  23

                         Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona
area requirements to power the USA

(150 km)2 of
Nevada covered
with 15% efficient
solar cells could
provide the USA
with electricity



½ as much land
with 30% efficient
turbines


                                                 24
Source: J.A. Turner, Science 285 1999, p. 687.
the right
                            : HVDC
encouraging innovation




             <
             <
             <
             <
Hydro


Geothermal
                     Wind
 Solar
                            Biomass


                                      25
                                      25
DESERTEC concept for EU-MENA
         10,000 GW from solar!




                                                                    26
          Source: Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2
price of power – 2011 and 2013
                                                     Carbon Tax
        200                                          O&M Charge (Fixed & Variable)

                           Solar Peaking Pricing     Energy Charge
                                                     Capital Charge

        150
$/MWh




        100



                         Solar Baseload Pricing
        50




         0
                Gas Peaker         Nuclear            IGCC             CCGT              Coal         Ausra CLFR        Ausra 60%
                                                                                                         24%           (w/storage)
                                                                                                                                          27
        Source: Ausra. All prices are estimated as of April 2008, in 2008$; Carbon tax of $30 is assumed. Ausra CLFR 24% price is as of
        2011, and 60% w/storage is in 2013
PuG power requirements
                            Coal            Coal                                           Natural                             Solar            Solar             Engineered
                            (PC)          IGCC+CCS                   Nuclear                Gas    Wind                        (PV)             (CSP)             Geothermal
     Scalability             High               CO2                    Med**                  High             Low*            Low*               High                     High
                                              Storage
                             High                 Low                    High                 High             Low*            Low*               High                     High
     Reliability


           Price             Med                 Med                 Low-Med                   Low              High            High              High                     High
        Stability

Carbon Price                 Low                  Low                    High                  Med              High            High              High                     High
               CSP and EGS meet Utility Needs!
    Benefits

Dispatchable                 Yes                  Yes                   Yes**                   Yes               No              No               Yes                      Yes
      Power

Adoption Ease                High                 Low                  High**                 High              Low             Med               High                     High


  Technology                 Low                 High                     Med                  Low              High            High               Med                     High
        Risk                                                                                                    Low             Low
*Wind and Solar PV are severely disadvantaged due to the lack of storage – power is available when generated, not when needed, stopping them from serving as base-load power
                                                                                                                                                                                 28
generators

** Nuclear energy is “always on”, generating electricity even when it is not needed (and when prices are negative, such as the middle of night). High decommissioning costs and a lack of
effective waste-disposal are both significant factors in limiting its scalability
key criteria

› Trajectory: “What is” or “What Can Be”
     › Cost Trajectory
     › Scalability Trajectory
     › Carbon Trajectory
› Adoption Risk
› Capital Formation
› Optionality
› Carbon Reduction Capacity

                                           29
Cost trajectory:




                     Undesirable (hydrogen fuel cell?)

                                                 Fossil + Carbon Cost
 Cost




                                                     Fossil Fuel Cost

        Subsidy/Support Needed

                 Ideal (Cellulosic biofuels?)

                                 Time
                                                                 30
Carbon trajectory:
 Carbon Emissions Trajectory




                                        Undesirable (natural gas?)


                                                                     Fossil Fuels

                                                                 Minimum Target



                               Ideal (Cellulosic biofuels?)

                                            Time
                                                                                31
cost: driving down the cost curve




                                                                                                                      32
Source: “The Carbon Productivity Challenge”, McKinsey – Original from UC Berkely Energy Resource Group, Navigant Consulting
cost: not all technology curves are the same
 Cost (Normalized)




                     Cheapest now Wind not mean
                                  does      Coal
                           cheapest later!

                          Trajectory Matters!
                                           Solar PV




                 2010    2015   2020   2025   2030    2035
                                                             33
declining technology cost…
      Generations of Solar Photovoltaics…




                Crystalline Silicon



                          Amorphous Silicon


                                        Thin-Film


                                      Thin-Film Multi-Junction




                                                                 34
but tech cost decline isn’t enough…

                                 Total Cost
Cost (Normalized)




                    Total cost decline is based on relative
                         proportion of cost “types”…
                                   Construction Cost
                                                   Inputs (Feedstock/Land)

                                                  Technology Cost



                2010     2015   2020      2025      2030      2035      2040

                                                                             35
adoption risk - $2,500 nano



      … ICE or hydrogen?

 …the Chindia test on relevance



                                  36
capital formation
› Short Innovation Cycles (3-5 years)
   › Not “fusion”; Not “nuclear”; Not CCS



› Mitigate technical AND/OR market risk quickly and cheaply
      Private money will flow to
   › (technical) - solar thermal
   › (market) – corn ethanol
ventures that return investment in
› Investor returns-5 year cycles!
                3 at each stage of technology development


› Unsubsidized market competition: 7-10 years



                                                              37
capital formation: pathway for solar thermal

         › 2008: Proof of concept             mitigating technology risk
                   › Costs at $0.16 per KWh



         › 2010: Deployment as peaking power (vs. natural gas)
                   › Costs at $0.12-$0.16 KWh
                   › Less with low cost loans
                   › Ongoing tech optimization & storage



         › 2013-15: Deployment as base-load (vs. coal)
                   › Costs at $0.10-$0.12Kwh including storage


         › Adoption risk: PUG power, cost
                                                                           38
Note: All costs in 2006 $
optionality: hybrids or biofuels?
                                                                     100%
 0%




                                                                     % of power from electric sources
% of power from liquid fuel




                                                                                 0%
100%



                              Tata Nano vs. Honda Hybrid (India)
                                                      Time
                                                                              39

                                  2010: >100X the volume?
carbon reduction capacity is key

                            Growth Offers the Greatest Carbon Reduction Opportunity!
                   1.9


                   1.7


                   1.5
Index (2008 = 1)




                   1.3


                   1.1


                   0.9


                   0.7

                                Growth stock
                   0.5
                                       Replacement of old stock
                                                                   Improvement of current stock
                   0.3
                     2008                2013                     2018                 2023       2028
                                                                                                         40
carbon reduction capacity: 10X increase in carbon productivity!



                                                                            10

                                                                                  9
    Carbon Productivity = GDP / Emissions




                                                                                  8
                                                                                                        Carbon Productivity Growth Required = 5.6%/yr
                                                                                  7
                                                                                            Less reduction now, but
                                            World GDP Growth




                                                                                               greater capacity to
                                                                                  6
                                                               Index (2008 = 1)




                                                                                             respond in the future?
                                                                                  5

                                                                                  4
                                                                                                                                        World GDP Growth = 3.1%/yr
                                                                                  3

                                                                                  2

                                                                                                                     Emission decrease to 20GT CO2e by 2050 = -2.4%/yr
                                                                                  1

                                                                                  0
                                                                                          2010   2015     2020      2025       2030      2035      2040      2045        2050
                                                                                   2005
                                                                                                                                                                           41
Source: “The Carbon Productivity Challenge”, McKinsey – Original GDP projection from Global Insight through 2037
goal:
cost, carbon & scaling trajectory, capital
formation, low adoption risk, & optionality



                                         42
…or get to work


     vk@khoslaventures.com
khoslaventures.com/resources.html



                              43

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The Future Of Clean Power Generation

  • 1. Breaking the Climate Deadlock the future of clean power generation Vinod Khosla Khosla Ventures Nov 2008 1
  • 3. “China and India together account for 79 percent of the projected increase in world coal consumption from 2005 to 2030” EIA 3
  • 4. “At the end of 2005, China had an estimated 299 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity in operation. To meet the demand for electricity that is expected to accompany its rapid economic growth, an additional 735 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity (net of retirements) is projected to be brought on line in China by 2030 ” EIA 4
  • 5. Key Issues › Electricity : ~40% of man-made CO2 › Coal: largest culprit › Action needed for 80% reduction by 2050 5
  • 6. What Can Solar Do? › Solar: near zero-emissions power! › 1% of world’s desert: meet all power demand › US: 100 x 100 mile area in Nevada › India: less than 1% of land area › Europe: Less than 3% of Morocco’s land 6
  • 7. Scalability: solar Wind waves SOLAR Gas OTEC Oil BIO HYDRO World energy Uranium use COAL R. Perez et al. 7 Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona
  • 8. Global Solar Irradiance Map 8 Source: Ecole des Mines de Paris / Armines 2006
  • 9. What Must Solar Achieve to Succeed? › Cost less than fossil fuels › ($0.10-0.12KWh in 2007 dollars) › “Dispatchable” generation › Storage key for intermittent sources › Reliability and uptime equiv. to fossil fuels 9
  • 10. carbon: irrational policies Germany: 57% world PV US: 7% world PV 10 Source: Creating a U.S. Market for Solar Energy, by Rhone Resch, President of the Solar Energy Industries Association.
  • 11. carbon: irrational policies › Solar PV installations in the Bay Area ›Moscone Center vs. San Jose; 20% improvement in isolation! › Cost of Moscone center PV: $6,222 per KW › At $0.12KWh, 2.2% return on investment (below inflation!) › Warner-Lieberman bill › giving credits away to today’s inefficient technologies! › Zero-Emission Buildings › UK estimate (40% higher home building cost) 11
  • 12. carbon: California solar roofs program › California Million Solar Roofs Program › $3.3 billion › Goal: 3,000 MW by 2017 solutions should make a › California generation capacity (2003) ≈ 61 GW material impact! › Best case-scenario – less than 5% of CA capacity! 12
  • 13. Solar Power: PV › Advantage: distributed power-generation › Ideal where peak demand = max solar radiation › Scaling: no storage, no base-load power › SEIA: Grid parity by 2015 (US) 13
  • 14. Solar Power: Solar Thermal › Advantage: Base-load power › thermal storage is key › Low technical risk, low adoption risk › California operations since the 1980’s › Primary risk: Cost per KW of installed capacity 14
  • 17. Storage For Time-shifting To Storage Plant Output From Direct Solar Storage From Direct Solar Storage Direct Solar 6 AM 9 AM 12 PM 3 PM 6 PM 9 PM 17 Time of Day
  • 18. solar thermal: day / night power 18 Source: John O’Donnell
  • 19. thermal storage is cheap Heat/Air/Hydro Electricity › Flywheel ≈ $4000/kWh › Molten Salt ≈ $45/kWh › VRB batt ≈ $350-600/kWh › Concrete ≈ $25-45KWh increased cost of power lower cost of power › CAES, Pumped Hydro 19 Source: NREL for heat storage (2007), Dr. Doerte Laing, DLR (2008), VRB battery costs from company and Appalachian Power, CAISO estimate for Flywheel costs (Beacon Power)
  • 20. thermal energy storage › Commercial Available Today › Steam Accumulator › molten salt storage based on nitrate salts › In Testing › Solid medium sensible heat storage - concrete storage › Latent heat - PCM storage › Combined storage system (concrete/PCM) for water/steam fluid › Improved molten salt storage concepts › Solid media storage for Solar Tower with Air Receiver 20 Source: Doerte Laing , German Aerospace center
  • 21. Policy Needs: Short-Term › Expansion of technology-neutral RPS’ › More economic than feed-in tariffs › Stabilization incentive standards › Low-cost capital availability › Cost of capital is key determinant of cost 21
  • 22. Policy Needs: Med-Term › Carbon pricing framework › Investment in transmission infrastructure › Focus on regional power transmissions (i.e - DESERTEC) 22
  • 23. Scalability:Land is not (remotely) a constraint 3000 km world electricity demand (18,000 TWh/y) can be produced from 300 x 300 km² More than 90% of world pp could be served =0.23% of all deserts by clean power from deserts (DESERTEC.org) ! distributed over “10 000” sites 23 Source: Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona
  • 24. area requirements to power the USA (150 km)2 of Nevada covered with 15% efficient solar cells could provide the USA with electricity ½ as much land with 30% efficient turbines 24 Source: J.A. Turner, Science 285 1999, p. 687.
  • 25. the right : HVDC encouraging innovation < < < < Hydro Geothermal Wind Solar Biomass 25 25
  • 26. DESERTEC concept for EU-MENA 10,000 GW from solar! 26 Source: Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2
  • 27. price of power – 2011 and 2013 Carbon Tax 200 O&M Charge (Fixed & Variable) Solar Peaking Pricing Energy Charge Capital Charge 150 $/MWh 100 Solar Baseload Pricing 50 0 Gas Peaker Nuclear IGCC CCGT Coal Ausra CLFR Ausra 60% 24% (w/storage) 27 Source: Ausra. All prices are estimated as of April 2008, in 2008$; Carbon tax of $30 is assumed. Ausra CLFR 24% price is as of 2011, and 60% w/storage is in 2013
  • 28. PuG power requirements Coal Coal Natural Solar Solar Engineered (PC) IGCC+CCS Nuclear Gas Wind (PV) (CSP) Geothermal Scalability High CO2 Med** High Low* Low* High High Storage High Low High High Low* Low* High High Reliability Price Med Med Low-Med Low High High High High Stability Carbon Price Low Low High Med High High High High CSP and EGS meet Utility Needs! Benefits Dispatchable Yes Yes Yes** Yes No No Yes Yes Power Adoption Ease High Low High** High Low Med High High Technology Low High Med Low High High Med High Risk Low Low *Wind and Solar PV are severely disadvantaged due to the lack of storage – power is available when generated, not when needed, stopping them from serving as base-load power 28 generators ** Nuclear energy is “always on”, generating electricity even when it is not needed (and when prices are negative, such as the middle of night). High decommissioning costs and a lack of effective waste-disposal are both significant factors in limiting its scalability
  • 29. key criteria › Trajectory: “What is” or “What Can Be” › Cost Trajectory › Scalability Trajectory › Carbon Trajectory › Adoption Risk › Capital Formation › Optionality › Carbon Reduction Capacity 29
  • 30. Cost trajectory: Undesirable (hydrogen fuel cell?) Fossil + Carbon Cost Cost Fossil Fuel Cost Subsidy/Support Needed Ideal (Cellulosic biofuels?) Time 30
  • 31. Carbon trajectory: Carbon Emissions Trajectory Undesirable (natural gas?) Fossil Fuels Minimum Target Ideal (Cellulosic biofuels?) Time 31
  • 32. cost: driving down the cost curve 32 Source: “The Carbon Productivity Challenge”, McKinsey – Original from UC Berkely Energy Resource Group, Navigant Consulting
  • 33. cost: not all technology curves are the same Cost (Normalized) Cheapest now Wind not mean does Coal cheapest later! Trajectory Matters! Solar PV 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 33
  • 34. declining technology cost… Generations of Solar Photovoltaics… Crystalline Silicon Amorphous Silicon Thin-Film Thin-Film Multi-Junction 34
  • 35. but tech cost decline isn’t enough… Total Cost Cost (Normalized) Total cost decline is based on relative proportion of cost “types”… Construction Cost Inputs (Feedstock/Land) Technology Cost 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 35
  • 36. adoption risk - $2,500 nano … ICE or hydrogen? …the Chindia test on relevance 36
  • 37. capital formation › Short Innovation Cycles (3-5 years) › Not “fusion”; Not “nuclear”; Not CCS › Mitigate technical AND/OR market risk quickly and cheaply Private money will flow to › (technical) - solar thermal › (market) – corn ethanol ventures that return investment in › Investor returns-5 year cycles! 3 at each stage of technology development › Unsubsidized market competition: 7-10 years 37
  • 38. capital formation: pathway for solar thermal › 2008: Proof of concept mitigating technology risk › Costs at $0.16 per KWh › 2010: Deployment as peaking power (vs. natural gas) › Costs at $0.12-$0.16 KWh › Less with low cost loans › Ongoing tech optimization & storage › 2013-15: Deployment as base-load (vs. coal) › Costs at $0.10-$0.12Kwh including storage › Adoption risk: PUG power, cost 38 Note: All costs in 2006 $
  • 39. optionality: hybrids or biofuels? 100% 0% % of power from electric sources % of power from liquid fuel 0% 100% Tata Nano vs. Honda Hybrid (India) Time 39 2010: >100X the volume?
  • 40. carbon reduction capacity is key Growth Offers the Greatest Carbon Reduction Opportunity! 1.9 1.7 1.5 Index (2008 = 1) 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 Growth stock 0.5 Replacement of old stock Improvement of current stock 0.3 2008 2013 2018 2023 2028 40
  • 41. carbon reduction capacity: 10X increase in carbon productivity! 10 9 Carbon Productivity = GDP / Emissions 8 Carbon Productivity Growth Required = 5.6%/yr 7 Less reduction now, but World GDP Growth greater capacity to 6 Index (2008 = 1) respond in the future? 5 4 World GDP Growth = 3.1%/yr 3 2 Emission decrease to 20GT CO2e by 2050 = -2.4%/yr 1 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 41 Source: “The Carbon Productivity Challenge”, McKinsey – Original GDP projection from Global Insight through 2037
  • 42. goal: cost, carbon & scaling trajectory, capital formation, low adoption risk, & optionality 42
  • 43. …or get to work vk@khoslaventures.com khoslaventures.com/resources.html 43