There is good newsA fully decarbonised, energy rich world is in reach...Power, water, food and development for a world of ...
But we have serious policy problemsAustralia forms strategy based on this graph
The problem actually looks like this• Greenhouse gas accumulates• Temperature forcing builds• Tipping points are real     ...
The pathway matters as much as the           destination           Nuclear mimics fossil – but without the GHG           B...
Zero Carbon Options: The Task• Replace coal power stations at Pt Augusta: Northern and  Playford   – 740 MW   – Responsibl...
Option 1: Reference Renewable Solution – Solar and Wind HybridEnergy Source Technology                    Generation      ...
Option 2: Reference Nuclear SolutionEnergy Source   Technology                                    Generation RatingNuclear...
The CriteriaFinancial/ Economic                                                   $•   Capital cost•   Levelised cost of e...
Capital Cost•No capital cost provided in reference renewable solution   •“Requirement for $5 billion in public funding for...
Levelised cost of electricityCriteria       Renewable    Renewable    Renewable:   Nuclear EC6               Solar CST    ...
Greenhouse gas emissions abatementCriteria    Renewable   Renewable Renewable:              Nuclear EC6            Solar C...
LifespanCST: Low global experience   Collection and storage components may differ to generation componentsWind: Significan...
Operational WasteEssentially zero for reference renewable solutionReference nuclear solution generates spent nuclear fuelS...
Operational WasteCriteria      Renewable   Renewable   Renewable:   Nuclear EC6              Solar CST   Wind        Combi...
Future Fuel in Fast ReactorGEH S-PRISM 311 MWe IFR module                                 “Study finds waste-fuelled      ...
Land Use1,360 MWe Nuclear, Qinshan China           350 MWe solar, USA (SEGS)   Criteria       Renewable        Renewable  ...
Water ConsumptionNo water     Clean water for mirror washing        Ocean water for cooling Criteria    Renewable        R...
Material InputsTechnology   Comment                                    ConfidenceCST          Heliostats only, no towers  ...
Material InputsCriteria          Renewable              Renewable               Renewable:           Nuclear EC6          ...
Capacity Factors   Ratio of maximum potential rated output and actual   electricity output e.g.           Maximum potentia...
Reliability                  +                       ≠                      =                               - CO2-eCriteri...
Job Creation           Both solutions provide a good job-creation outcomeCriteria      Renewable Solar CST Renewable   Ren...
Network EnhancementCriteria      Renewable   Renewable   Renewable: Combined       Nuclear EC6              Solar CST   Wi...
Existing global and local capacity Nuclear:     Nationally significant     Globally manageable, technologically unremarkab...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•10% more greenhouse gasabatement per year...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•For about half the capital cost...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•Providing significantly cheaperelectricity...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•That is completely reliable...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•Consuming far less land area...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•And no fresh water...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•Requiring less materialresources to build...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•With over double the lifespan...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•That uses our local fuelsource...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•And provides high-tech jobs...
We have optionsThis option could mean:•Deploying commerciallymature technology
We have options This option could mean: •10% more greenhouse gas abatement per year... •For about half the capital cost......
Zero Carbon Options: Report launch
Zero Carbon Options: Report launch
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Zero Carbon Options: Report launch

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This is the presentation that accompanied my launch of the report "Zero Carbon Options" http://www.zerocarbonoptions.com/

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  • You may need more detail on how I have reached these numbers, and I am happy to provide the references.
  • You may need more detail on how I have reached these numbers, and I am happy to provide the references.
  • You may need more detail on how I have reached these numbers, and I am happy to provide the references.
  • You may need more detail on how I have reached these numbers, and I am happy to provide the references.
  • Zero Carbon Options: Report launch

    1. 1. There is good newsA fully decarbonised, energy rich world is in reach...Power, water, food and development for a world of 10 billion –plus means to protect, maintain and restore a bio-rich planet
    2. 2. But we have serious policy problemsAustralia forms strategy based on this graph
    3. 3. The problem actually looks like this• Greenhouse gas accumulates• Temperature forcing builds• Tipping points are real GHG accumulation from Australian electricity sector 1990-2010 (Adapted from AGEIS data) 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 Carbon Budget tCO2-e 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0
    4. 4. The pathway matters as much as the destination Nuclear mimics fossil – but without the GHG But nuclear power is prohibited in Australia Selecting “No” delivers an inferior result Would this be clear in a comparative energy case study?
    5. 5. Zero Carbon Options: The Task• Replace coal power stations at Pt Augusta: Northern and Playford – 740 MW – Responsible for over 5 million tCO2-e every year – 4,650 GWhs per year (Fully dispatchable i.e. available whenever it is wanted)
    6. 6. Option 1: Reference Renewable Solution – Solar and Wind HybridEnergy Source Technology Generation Assumed Annual Rating GenerationSolar Concentrating Solar Thermal Six modules 2,810 GWh total (CST) power towers with 760 MW total heliostat mirror fields and molten salt energy storageWind Enercon E-126 turbines 95 turbines at 1,840 GWh total 7.5 MW each for 712.5 MW Source: BZE 2012
    7. 7. Option 2: Reference Nuclear SolutionEnergy Source Technology Generation RatingNuclear 1 x Enhanced CANDU 6 (EC6) 1 module at 690 pressurised heavy water reactor MWe net Source: ThinkClimate Consulting and Bown and Pang 2012 Two CANDU 6 reactors at Qinshan, China
    8. 8. The CriteriaFinancial/ Economic $• Capital cost• Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)• Requirement for transmission network upgrade• Lifespan• Capacity factor• ReliabilityEnvironmental• Greenhouse gas emissions abatement• Water consumption• Land area• Major construction material requirements• Operational wasteSocial• Job creation
    9. 9. Capital Cost•No capital cost provided in reference renewable solution •“Requirement for $5 billion in public funding for 25% balance of financing” for the solar component (BZE 2012) •Low range estimate of $2,000 per kW installed for onshore wind in South Australia•Nuclear: three sources for potential costs up to 2030 •Highly inclusive cost •$5,000 - $7,000 per kW net generation capacityCriteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind CombinedCapital Cost $6.7 billion $1.4 billion $8.1 billion $3.5 billion - $4.8 billion
    10. 10. Levelised cost of electricityCriteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind CombinedLCOE $250-$300/ $90-$110 MWh - $101-$138 MWh
    11. 11. Greenhouse gas emissions abatementCriteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind CombinedGHG - - 2 million – 5 million 5.36 millionAbatement tCO2-e/year tCO2-e/year
    12. 12. LifespanCST: Low global experience Collection and storage components may differ to generation componentsWind: Significant global experience and confident ratingsNuclear: Significant global experience. Specific rating for EC6Criteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind CombinedLifespan Assumed 25 25 years - Rated 60 years years
    13. 13. Operational WasteEssentially zero for reference renewable solutionReference nuclear solution generates spent nuclear fuelSingle EC6 generates 104 t spent fuel per yearStored on-site in MACSTOR
    14. 14. Operational WasteCriteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind CombinedOperational - - - 6,250 t spentWaste fuel, MACSTOR over 9,500 m2
    15. 15. Future Fuel in Fast ReactorGEH S-PRISM 311 MWe IFR module “Study finds waste-fuelled reactor feasible for UK The report includes a vote of confidence by analysts DBD Ltd, which says that in terms of fuel fabrication, reactor operation, and fuel storage, there are "no fundamental impediments" to licensability in the UK. July 2012
    16. 16. Land Use1,360 MWe Nuclear, Qinshan China 350 MWe solar, USA (SEGS) Criteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind Combined Land area 16 km2 2.1 km2 18.1 km2 2 km2 exclusive exclusive exclusive, 175 exclusive, 191 km2 non- km2 non- exclusive exclusive
    17. 17. Water ConsumptionNo water Clean water for mirror washing Ocean water for cooling Criteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind Combined Water use 0.74 GL fresh - 0.74 GL fresh -
    18. 18. Material InputsTechnology Comment ConfidenceCST Heliostats only, no towers Fair. Certain underestimateWind Good general literature, not specific to Good Enercon turbineNuclear Detailed, extensive estimates for CANDU6 Excellent
    19. 19. Material InputsCriteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind CombinedMaterial Inputs 295,000 t steel 80,000 t steel 375,000 t steel 600,000 t concrete 90,000 t glass 300,000 t concrete 85,000 t glass 35,000 t steel 290,000 t concrete 590,000 t concreteLifespan Assumed 25 years 25 years Rated 60 yearsAnnual output 2,810 GWh 1,840 GWh 4,650 GWh Up to 5,400 GWh per yearLifetime 70,250 GWh 46,000 GWh 116,250 GWh Up to 324,000 GWhoutput For a significant materials saving, the nuclear reference solution delivers nearly three times the lifetime output of zero -carbon electricity AP1000 construction USA
    20. 20. Capacity Factors Ratio of maximum potential rated output and actual electricity output e.g. Maximum potential rated output of 7.5 MW wind turbine in 1 year is: 7.5 MW x 24 x 365 = 65,700 MWh If actual output = 21,900 MWh CF = 21,900/65,700 CF= 0.33 (33%) CF speaks to overall variability and intermittency of output, but DOES NOT mean “it only runs 33% of the time”Criteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind CombinedCapacity Factor 40% 30% - Assumed 85%, rated to 90%
    21. 21. Reliability + ≠ = - CO2-eCriteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Solar CST Wind CombinedReliability Diminished compared Un-diminished to fossil compared to fossil
    22. 22. Job Creation Both solutions provide a good job-creation outcomeCriteria Renewable Solar CST Renewable Renewable: Nuclear EC6 Wind CombinedJob creation 360 direct - - 1,600 construction jobs permanent and up to 520 ongoing operations and operational onsite, maintenance jobs; offsite and contractor Approximately 1,300 employment construction jobs opportunities
    23. 23. Network EnhancementCriteria Renewable Renewable Renewable: Combined Nuclear EC6 Solar CST WindNetwork - Minimal enhancement Minimal enhancementenhancement for project connection, for local connection. enhancement for larger Connection barrier based renewable pathway on size of single generating unit
    24. 24. Existing global and local capacity Nuclear: Nationally significant Globally manageable, technologically unremarkable Solar CST: Largest single facility in the world (by far) 76 times bigger than largest Australian solar Wind: 58% increase in wind capacity in South AustraliaOperable GWe Reactors GWe On order or GWeReactors under planned construction433 372 65 65 158 175 Source: World Nuclear Association 2012 World’s largest solar, 350 MW (no storage)
    25. 25. We have optionsThis option could mean:•10% more greenhouse gasabatement per year...
    26. 26. We have optionsThis option could mean:•For about half the capital cost...
    27. 27. We have optionsThis option could mean:•Providing significantly cheaperelectricity...
    28. 28. We have optionsThis option could mean:•That is completely reliable...
    29. 29. We have optionsThis option could mean:•Consuming far less land area...
    30. 30. We have optionsThis option could mean:•And no fresh water...
    31. 31. We have optionsThis option could mean:•Requiring less materialresources to build...
    32. 32. We have optionsThis option could mean:•With over double the lifespan...
    33. 33. We have optionsThis option could mean:•That uses our local fuelsource...
    34. 34. We have optionsThis option could mean:•And provides high-tech jobs...
    35. 35. We have optionsThis option could mean:•Deploying commerciallymature technology
    36. 36. We have options This option could mean: •10% more greenhouse gas abatement per year... •For about half the capital cost... •Providing significantly cheaper electricity... •That is completely reliable... •Consuming far less land area... •And no fresh water... •Requiring less material resources to build... •With over double the lifespan... •That uses our local fuel source... •And provides high-tech jobs... •Deploying commercially mature technologyAre we ready to put this optionon the table?

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