Muhammad Saud KharalPhD in Social Science, Department of Sociology Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya Indonesia

1. {{
The Arab SpringThe Arab Spring
Understanding the Middle East Revolutions.Understanding the Middle East Revolutions.
Muhammad Saud Kharal
PhD in Social Science,
Department of Sociology Faculty of Social
and Political Sciences, Universitas
Airlangga, Surabaya Indonesia

3. Arab Spring OverviewArab Spring Overview
 Arab spring resulted in increased political pluralism and newArab spring resulted in increased political pluralism and new
democratic institutions but led to:democratic institutions but led to:
• InstabilityInstability
• Setbacks in the transition towards democracySetbacks in the transition towards democracy
• Mass protestsMass protests
• Clashes among former revolutionary allies andClashes among former revolutionary allies and
• The rise of political IslamThe rise of political Islam
 Instability taken a toll on the region’s economiesInstability taken a toll on the region’s economies
• Sharp slowdown inSharp slowdown in
• Economic activityEconomic activity
• Deteriorating external and fiscal accountsDeteriorating external and fiscal accounts
• Decreasing reservesDecreasing reserves

5. Arab Spring Impacts IArab Spring Impacts I
 Long term challenges remain as pressing as ever:Long term challenges remain as pressing as ever:
• High unemployment (especially among youth)High unemployment (especially among youth)
• Inefficient subsidy regimesInefficient subsidy regimes
• Low trade diversificationLow trade diversification
 Main impacts of Arab SpringMain impacts of Arab Spring
• Sharp drop in growth, slow recovery underwaySharp drop in growth, slow recovery underway
• Average real growth in region fell from 4.2% in 2010 to 2.2% in 2011Average real growth in region fell from 4.2% in 2010 to 2.2% in 2011
– lowest in a decade– lowest in a decade
 Making matters worse,Making matters worse,
• global economy sluggishglobal economy sluggish

7.  The Arab Spring is known by many names here are some of them:The Arab Spring is known by many names here are some of them:
- The Arab Spring and Winter- The Arab Spring and Winter
- Arab Awakening- Arab Awakening
-Arab Uprising-Arab Uprising
 The Arab Spring is a revolutionary wave of demonstrations andThe Arab Spring is a revolutionary wave of demonstrations and
protests occurring in the Arab world that began on December 18,protests occurring in the Arab world that began on December 18,
20102010
 They have protested in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, andThey have protested in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, and
Oman, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia,Oman, Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia,
Sudan and Western Sahara.Sudan and Western Sahara.
What is the Arab Spring ?What is the Arab Spring ?

9.  2011 saw dramatic changes in the Arab world. Unprecedented popular2011 saw dramatic changes in the Arab world. Unprecedented popular
demonstrations indemonstrations in TunisiaTunisia,, EgyptEgypt, and, and LibyaLibya led to the overturning ofled to the overturning of
autocratic rule in North Africa.autocratic rule in North Africa.
 These protests, demandingThese protests, demanding greater political freedomgreater political freedom,, economiceconomic
opportunityopportunity, and, and an end to systemic corruptionan end to systemic corruption, have resonated deeply, have resonated deeply
across the region, triggering calls for change throughout the Arab worldacross the region, triggering calls for change throughout the Arab world
 Arab political language is changing: “The new slogans areArab political language is changing: “The new slogans are
aboutabout equitable distribution of wealthequitable distribution of wealth, defeating, defeating nepotismnepotism
andand corruptioncorruption,, freedom of expression and assembly,freedom of expression and assembly, all ofall of
which are rights meant to restore self-respect and render towhich are rights meant to restore self-respect and render to
people their due sense ofpeople their due sense of dignitydignity,” .,” .

11.  DictatorshipDictatorship
 Absolute monarchyAbsolute monarchy
 Human rights violationsHuman rights violations
 Government corruptionGovernment corruption
 Economic declineEconomic decline
 UnemploymentUnemployment
 Extreme povertyExtreme poverty
 Education FactorsEducation Factors
 FamineFamine
Factors Behind Arab SpringFactors Behind Arab Spring

12. A status report on the Arab awakening (As of July 2011)A status report on the Arab awakening (As of July 2011)
Source: The Economist – 14 July 2011Source: The Economist – 14 July 2011

13. Questions About Revolution?Questions About Revolution?
 Is it a revolution?Is it a revolution?
 Yes (multiple dimensions; large group mobilization; existingYes (multiple dimensions; large group mobilization; existing
political hierarchy has been challenged)political hierarchy has been challenged)
 Self description by the participants as a revolutionarySelf description by the participants as a revolutionary
movement: The intent to overthrow the regime and transformmovement: The intent to overthrow the regime and transform
society, culturesociety, culture

14. Armed ForcesArmed Forces
 Egypt , Libya & Syria:Egypt , Libya & Syria:
 Military controls 5-40% of the economy (Marina Ottoway)Military controls 5-40% of the economy (Marina Ottoway)
 Dominant political positionDominant political position
 Affinity with U.S. armed forces and associations.Affinity with U.S. armed forces and associations.
 Emergency laws lift after 30 yearsEmergency laws lift after 30 years
 Military operations against the rebelsMilitary operations against the rebels
 Aliens with foreign countries.Aliens with foreign countries.

16.  In Feb 2011, resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh,In Feb 2011, resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh,
who had been in power since 1978.who had been in power since 1978.
 Headquarters of al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula.Headquarters of al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula.
 Al-Qaeda militants have taken control of several cities inAl-Qaeda militants have taken control of several cities in
southern Yemen.southern Yemen.
 End in February 27 , 2012.End in February 27 , 2012.
 Oil , gas and agriculture are the natural reserves.Oil , gas and agriculture are the natural reserves.
YemenYemen

17. LibyaLibya
Africa

18. Goal: to regain their freedom in Libya.
Consist of all non-Gaddafi followers
Supported by other countries like the United states

19. EconomyEconomy

21.  February 14 , 2011 violent demonstrations broke outFebruary 14 , 2011 violent demonstrations broke out
in Bahrain.in Bahrain.
 Sunni government ruled a largely Shi’a population.Sunni government ruled a largely Shi’a population.
 Saudi Arabia and Iran political powers involvementSaudi Arabia and Iran political powers involvement
in Bahrain.in Bahrain.
BahrainBahrain

22. SyriaSyria
 Military conflictMilitary conflict
 Entire country disintegratingEntire country disintegrating
 Assad’s Alawite regime supported byAssad’s Alawite regime supported by
China, Russia, and especially IranChina, Russia, and especially Iran

23. Arab Spring’s ImpactArab Spring’s Impact
SyriaSyria
 Assad opposed by US, Saudi ArabiaAssad opposed by US, Saudi Arabia
 Possible proxy war?Possible proxy war?
 Syria at heart of multiple conflicts:Syria at heart of multiple conflicts:
 Arab-IsraelArab-Israel
 Saudi-IranSaudi-Iran
 US-RussiaUS-Russia
 Hezbolah-IsraelHezbolah-Israel

24. Economic Impact of ArabEconomic Impact of Arab
SpringSpring
24

25. Arab Spring Impacts IIArab Spring Impacts II
 Slowdown affected all countriesSlowdown affected all countries
 Hardest hit initially were those countries at center of the ArabHardest hit initially were those countries at center of the Arab
SpringSpring
• LibyaLibya
• TunisiaTunisia
• EgyptEgypt
• Syria andSyria and
• YemenYemen
• Morocco was only country were GDP strengthened in 2011Morocco was only country were GDP strengthened in 2011
 Economic recovery subdued in 2012Economic recovery subdued in 2012
 Average real GDP growth increased slightly to 2.4%Average real GDP growth increased slightly to 2.4%

26. Arab Spring ImpactArab Spring Impact
Production stoppagesProduction stoppages
 Caused by political upheaval were severe.Caused by political upheaval were severe.
 In Libya oil production decreased from 1.65 m bpd in 2010 to onlyIn Libya oil production decreased from 1.65 m bpd in 2010 to only
0.47 m bpd in 20110.47 m bpd in 2011
 In Egypt widespread demonstrations and stricken paralyzedIn Egypt widespread demonstrations and stricken paralyzed
production process and deterred investments for monthsproduction process and deterred investments for months
 In Tunisia labor unrest lead to a substantial decline in mining sectorIn Tunisia labor unrest lead to a substantial decline in mining sector
(-40% va) and oil and phosphate production.(-40% va) and oil and phosphate production.
 In Syria oil production declined by 60% from level at end of 2010 toIn Syria oil production declined by 60% from level at end of 2010 to
0.16 m bpd in September 2012 – sanctions and ongoing civil war0.16 m bpd in September 2012 – sanctions and ongoing civil war
 In Yemen economic activity hit by attacks on electricity facilities andIn Yemen economic activity hit by attacks on electricity facilities and
pipeline sabotage – led to severe energy shortages.pipeline sabotage – led to severe energy shortages.

27. Arab Spring ImpactArab Spring Impact
Decline of TourismDecline of Tourism
 Sharp drop in tourismSharp drop in tourism
 Have recovered but remain well below pre revolution levelsHave recovered but remain well below pre revolution levels
 Given tourism accounts for 20%GDP in Lebanon, 12% in Jordan andGiven tourism accounts for 20%GDP in Lebanon, 12% in Jordan and
between 5% and 8% in Morocco Tunisia and Egypt, decline had abetween 5% and 8% in Morocco Tunisia and Egypt, decline had a
significant effect on growth.significant effect on growth.

28. Arab Spring ImpactsArab Spring Impacts
FDIFDI
 Foreign direct investment (FDI)Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows down sharplyflows down sharply
 Accelerates a trend that started with financial crisis 2008-09Accelerates a trend that started with financial crisis 2008-09
 Between 2010 and 2011 FDI inflows fell by 46%Between 2010 and 2011 FDI inflows fell by 46%

29. Thank youThank you