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Dr Tom Healy
NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute)
Dublin
Tom.Healy@NERInstitute.net
www.NERInstitute.net
A Future Ireland worth working
for:
A Social vision and Economic Strategy
NERI Seminar : 8 April 2015
Three Questions
1. Where are we at?
2. What social vision is possible & desirable?
3. What sort of political-economic strategy is
required to get there?
A
window
from the
past …
Where are we at….?
Seven challenges
1. Demography
2. Technological change
3. Climate change/energy
4. Weakness of indigenous enterprise base
5. European context
6. Irish political landscape
7. Northern Ireland, UK & European Union
Employment rates in EU 28
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Greece
Croatia
Spain
Italy
Bulgaria
Romania
Poland
Slovakia
Malta
Hungary
Ireland (Republic)
Cyprus
Slovenia
Portugal
Belgium
EU28
France
Lithuania
Latvia
Luxembourg
Finland
Estonia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Austria
Netherlands
UK
Germany
Sweden
% in employment
2014Q2
2008Q2
Imagining 2015 in 1985
• The ‘Peace Process’?
• The ‘fall of the wall’
• Internet, smartphones, email?
• The Celtic Tiger?
• The Crash of 2008?
• The transformation in social and cultural
values (e.g. gender, sexuality)
What social vision is possible and
desirable….?
Seven-part social vision
1. Human well-being
2. Personal & community efficacy
3. Sustainability of consumption/investment
4. Adequacy of income, employment
5. Quality of life/work experience
6. Civic engagement/democracy
7. Access to social goods/services – education,
health, housing
What sort of political-economic
strategy is required….?
Seven-point political economic strategy
1. Basic income / progressive tax / social prot
2. ‘Social wage’/universalism
3. Economic democracy
4. Dynamic & supportive enterprise culture
5. Role of banking and credit
6. Public ownership & control
7. Sustainable investment and consumption
And we need to talk more about the ‘social wage’….
 Education
 Early care
 Elder care
 Health
 Community services
 Pensions
Social Insurance % of GDP, 2012
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
Denmark
Ireland (Rep.)
Malta
Bulgaria
Sweden
U.K.
Latvia
Portugal
Romania
Cyprus
Greece
Lithuania
Croatia
Estonia
Luxembourg
Spain
Poland
Slovakia
EU28
Hungary
Finland
Italy
Belgium
Austria
Slovenia
Czech Rep.
Germany
Netherlands
France
employers
employees
Self-employed
Employer 3.1
Employee 1.1
Seven Questions
1. One Vision, one agenda, one narrative?
2. ‘Classic’ Social Democracy? Or ‘contemporary’?
3. The ghost of Lenin…..?
4. Greening of the red?...
5. Linking with radical civil society…(inc faith-based)?
6. Vexed question of the ‘islands’…
7. Models of capitalism…or abolishing & replacing it?
& And if replaced – with what? & Where did it
happen?
www.NERInstitute.net

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A Future Worth Working For: A Long-Term Vision for the Irish Economy

  • 1. Dr Tom Healy NERI (Nevin Economic Research Institute) Dublin Tom.Healy@NERInstitute.net www.NERInstitute.net A Future Ireland worth working for: A Social vision and Economic Strategy NERI Seminar : 8 April 2015
  • 2.
  • 3. Three Questions 1. Where are we at? 2. What social vision is possible & desirable? 3. What sort of political-economic strategy is required to get there?
  • 5. Where are we at….?
  • 6. Seven challenges 1. Demography 2. Technological change 3. Climate change/energy 4. Weakness of indigenous enterprise base 5. European context 6. Irish political landscape 7. Northern Ireland, UK & European Union
  • 7. Employment rates in EU 28 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Greece Croatia Spain Italy Bulgaria Romania Poland Slovakia Malta Hungary Ireland (Republic) Cyprus Slovenia Portugal Belgium EU28 France Lithuania Latvia Luxembourg Finland Estonia Czech Republic Denmark Austria Netherlands UK Germany Sweden % in employment 2014Q2 2008Q2
  • 8. Imagining 2015 in 1985 • The ‘Peace Process’? • The ‘fall of the wall’ • Internet, smartphones, email? • The Celtic Tiger? • The Crash of 2008? • The transformation in social and cultural values (e.g. gender, sexuality)
  • 9. What social vision is possible and desirable….?
  • 10. Seven-part social vision 1. Human well-being 2. Personal & community efficacy 3. Sustainability of consumption/investment 4. Adequacy of income, employment 5. Quality of life/work experience 6. Civic engagement/democracy 7. Access to social goods/services – education, health, housing
  • 11. What sort of political-economic strategy is required….?
  • 12. Seven-point political economic strategy 1. Basic income / progressive tax / social prot 2. ‘Social wage’/universalism 3. Economic democracy 4. Dynamic & supportive enterprise culture 5. Role of banking and credit 6. Public ownership & control 7. Sustainable investment and consumption
  • 13. And we need to talk more about the ‘social wage’….  Education  Early care  Elder care  Health  Community services  Pensions
  • 14. Social Insurance % of GDP, 2012 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 Denmark Ireland (Rep.) Malta Bulgaria Sweden U.K. Latvia Portugal Romania Cyprus Greece Lithuania Croatia Estonia Luxembourg Spain Poland Slovakia EU28 Hungary Finland Italy Belgium Austria Slovenia Czech Rep. Germany Netherlands France employers employees Self-employed Employer 3.1 Employee 1.1
  • 15. Seven Questions 1. One Vision, one agenda, one narrative? 2. ‘Classic’ Social Democracy? Or ‘contemporary’? 3. The ghost of Lenin…..? 4. Greening of the red?... 5. Linking with radical civil society…(inc faith-based)? 6. Vexed question of the ‘islands’… 7. Models of capitalism…or abolishing & replacing it? & And if replaced – with what? & Where did it happen?