On the 12th October 2016, the ILC-UK held a Housing in an Ageing Society event, kindly hosted by Legal & General and supported by the ILC-UK Partners Programme. On Tuesday, 19th July the International Longevity Centre - UK (ILC-UK) launched our “Housing in an ageing society” factpack with the support of FirstPort. The report found a significant increase in older people living alone, yet millions were failing to adapt their homes to help them live independently. The State of the Nation’s Housing’ reports that:Only around half of those over 50s experiencing limitations in Activities of Daily Living, live in homes with any adaptations. Those in retirement housing are significantly more likely to be living in homes with adaptations than those who do not. Approximately 87% of those in retirement housing have home adaptations, by comparison to around 60% of other housing. There could be a retirement housing gap of 160,000 by 2030 if current trends continue. By 2050, the gap could grow to 376,000. Over 16 million people – mainly owner occupied, middle aged and older households - live in under-occupied housing. Growing numbers of 45-64 year olds, and 65-74 year olds are living alone, with 6 million people living in houses with two or more excess bedrooms. At the event we explored these trends and consider how policymakers should respond. We heard presentations from: - Sally Randall, Director, Housing Standards and Support, Department for Communities and Local Government - Nigel Wilson, Group Chief Executive, Legal & General; - Dr Brian Beach, Research Fellow, ILC-UK

1. Housing in an Ageing Society
Wednesday 12th October 2016
This event is kindly hosted by
#has16

2. Welcome
Baroness Sally Greengross
Chief Executive
International Longevity Centre - UK
This event is kindly hosted by
#has16

3. Sally Randall
Director, Housing Standards and Support,
Department for Communities and Local Government
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4. Nigel Wilson
Group Chief Executive
Legal & General
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5. •Legal & General Group plc
•Half Year results – 9 August 2016
2016
2016Legal & General Group plc
October 2016
Media City, Salford 2015

6. Our Vision: In a Complex World, We are a Simple Business
We are one of the ten largest asset managers in the world and a leader in
financial solutions, trusted by over 10m customers. We make a promise to our
customers that we will support their critical financial decisions.
We integrate the pooling of risk with long term investments, this not only
generates attractive returns for customers and investors, but also addresses
some of the greatest challenges facing society including: pension solutions,
protection, urban regeneration and housing.
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7. SECOND MACHINE AGE:
L&G: providers of today’s capital, engaging
with customers to accelerate digital
capabilities. Big Data, Artificial Intelligence,
Deductive Analytics, Cloud.
Legal & General: From 1830’s cyberpunks to investors in and
creators of digital cities
• FinTech has disappointed to date
• Digital capabilities have to accelerate
Ada Lovelace:
First Female Actuary
First Machine Age:
Babbage Difference
Engine
Globally Trusted &
Respected Brand
Peer-to-Peer
FIRST MACHINE AGE:
L&G: formed in a coffee shop in 1836 as a UK
Peer-to-Peer company using big data.
3

8. MARCH
2016
8
We are a focused, high performing business aligned to key
long term structural growth drivers

9. As monetary policy takes front and centre stage, is the global
macro economy moving to a digital world of zeros?
Downside
Analogue Economy
Paper Money
% change
Digital Economy
Digital Money
% change
Economic growth 2 - 4 0
Productivity 2 - 3 0
Nominal interest rates 4 - 6 0
Real interest rates 2 - 3 0
Inflation - Normal
- Hyper
3 – 10
10 – 30
0
Wages -
Nominal
- Real
- Hyper
4 – 6
2 – 3
10 – 30
0
Currency Fixed with “crashes” Volatile
“We cannot solve our
problems with the
same thinking we
used when we created
them.”
Albert Einstein
Declining interest rates, have not
resulted in increased investment
Money printing has not resulted
in increased inflation
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10. UK ageing population
ONS: UK 2014-based National Population Projections
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0

11. Are we “accurately” predicting key trends?
Years
Key Trends
• Longevity
• Mortality
• Workplace
stress and
depression
• Suicides
Increase in Life Expectancy at Age 65
1
1

12. Legal & General’s increasing role in an ageing society
Working age Retirement
Saving and insurance Income for retirement Housing wealth
Low cost investments and
platforms
DB pension
Lifetime mortgage
Investment in infrastructure
to boost local jobs and
growth
DC pension Affordable housing
Protection to pay: ill health
and death
Secondary annuity market Retirement homes
1
2

13. The Legal & General view:
Ten steps we are taking in the housing market
1
3
1. Mortgage Club £50b origination in 2016
2. Surveying 450,000 in 2016
3. Cala Homes (Build to Sell) £600m plus revenue in 2016
4. Private Rental (Build to Rent) 1000 units “in the hopper”
5. Retirement Homes Enter in 2017
6. Lifetime Mortgages £500m year 1 target in 2016
7. L&G Community Homes 4,000 acre land bank
8. Modular construction Entering in 2017
9. Affordable Housing Significant growth
10. Household Insurance £350m premiums in 2015

14. Is the actuarial challenge to work alongside Artificial
Intelligence?
Our capability (science) has to improve. We have to develop critical
commercial solutions
- Long Term Care
- Segmented Housing – Intergenerational unfairness
- Lifetime Mortgage - £5b market by 2020?
- DB and DC Pensions (accumulation and decumulation) – Costs too high?
- Critical Illness – Inadequate cover?
- Wearable Devices - Big Data Analytics
- Life Insurance
- Rainy Day Savings – “deadline to the breadline”
1
4

15. We need to understand disease, disability and longevity
trends in an ageing population
Legal & General’s contribution Insurance capability
Pension risk transfer &
annuities
Health, diseases and longevity
Secondary annuity market Diseases and mortality trends
Lifetime mortgage Care needs and longevity
Affordable housing Diseases and disability to inform
design of houses and environment
1
5

16. Longevity trend: Fall in historical mortality rates largely
due to circulatory diseases
Age standardised mortality rate for ages 60-89, males in England & Wales, by cause of death group, 1970-
2013.
Source: Willets, Longevity Bulletin (2015)
1
6

17. Understanding drivers of coronary heart disease (CHD)
mortality by socio-economic status
• Sponsored the IMPACT Model in collaboration with University College
London.
• Understanding drivers of mortality inform our mortality projections
• For heart disease, the rate of decline in CHD mortality rates has been
fastest for the most affluent quintile of the population
• Obesity and diabetes which have risen in the deprived group, dampening
improvement in death rates
1
7

18. Understanding multi-morbidity by socio-economic status
• Most of our customers are in or will reach age 70 and above, having two or
more diseases concurrently
• Multi-morbidity is a predictor of disability and dependency
• We collaborate with University College London to study multi-morbidity by
socio-economic status at higher ages
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Good situational analysis: Need to develop commercial solutions

19. Life expectancy at age 65 with and without multiple morbidity, by
deprivation
Males Females
0
5
10
15
20
Least dep 2 3 4 Most dep
Healthy 1 disease
2 diseases 3+ diseases
0
5
10
15
20
Least dep 2 3 4 Most dep
Healthy 1 disease
2 diseases 3+ diseases
Source: Bajekal, Chan, Pujades et al: Multimorbidity Project
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20. Gap in life expectancy with increasing morbidity- Males, Quintile 3
(mid-deprived)
Gap in life expectancy by number of diseases
Source: Bajekal, Chan, Pujades et al: Multimorbidity Project
• Gaps are large: those with 3 or more diseases at
age 45 can expect to live 8.5 fewer years than
those with no chronic disease.
• The knowledge can use used to inform our
assumptions for our customers’ life expectancy.
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21. Receipts from student
accommodation are helping to
fund pensions.
BUILDING INTERGENERATIONAL
COMMUNITIES.
Pension funds are financing the
building of student
accommodation.
BUILDING BRITAIN
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22. BUILDING INTERGENERATIONAL
COMMUNITIES.
Last Time Buyers rightsizing, freeing up family
homes.
BUILDING BRITAIN
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23. 2016
LEGAL & GENERAL
Central Square, Cardiff
A MODERN GROWING BUSINESS
Legal & General Group plc
October 2016

24. Dr Brian Beach
Research Fellow
International Longevity Centre - UK
This event is kindly hosted by
#has16

25. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Housing in Later Life
Dr Brian Beach, Research Fellow
International Longevity Centre – UK
@ilcuk

26. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Primary Themes of Housing in Later Life
 Downsizing
 Housing with Care
 New Models of Later Life Living
 Home Adaptations

27. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Perspectives on Downsizing

28. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Specialist Retirement Housing

29. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Home Adaptations
 By age 90+ over 70% live in homes with adaptations
compared to around 50% aged 50-54.
– Amongst those that have had adaptations,
bathing/shower adaptations and hand rails are the
most common adaptations.
 Approximately 87% of those in retirement housing
have home adaptations, by comparison to around
60% of those living in other housing.
 Outright owners are more likely to be living in homes
with adaptations than any other groups – particularly
private renters and owners with a mortgage.

30. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Thinking Ahead…
 Lingering questions on affordability and supply
 Recognising varied needs and aspirations
– Develop a clearer picture of diversity in later life to
identify priority areas
 The need for a life course perspective
– Policies designed to address later life housing
needs today may have less relevance in the future
for current younger generations

31. The International Longevity Centre-UK is an independent, non-partisan think-tank
dedicated to addressing issues of longevity, ageing and population change.
Many thanks!
Dr Brian Beach
Research Fellow
International Longevity Centre – UK (ILC-UK)
brianbeach@ilcuk.org.uk
+44 20 7340 0440
Twitter: @ilcuk

32. Housing in an Ageing Society
Wednesday 12th October 2016
This event is kindly hosted by
#has16