The document discusses key economic issues facing Ireland, including slowing growth rates and uncertainties around tax regimes and interest rates. It argues that cutting taxes now would reduce revenue when uncertainties exist. Instead, it advocates increasing investment in infrastructure, education, reducing inequality, and possibly raising taxes to fund higher spending on services and drive long-term growth through improving productivity and living standards. The choices for the next government are described as either cutting or raising taxes, shrinking or expanding investment and the social state.
Demographic Change and Expenditure Pressures in IrelandDaragh McCarthy
Presentation by Dr Thomas Conefrey—Chief Economist, Irish Fiscal Advisory Council—focuses on government spending and presents preliminary work that attempts to quantify the likely pressures on the government finances in Ireland due to population ageing and other demographic trends over the next 50 years.
Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση,
σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ
στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019
στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel.
Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης
Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html
Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση,
σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ
στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019
στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel.
Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης
Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html
A presentation of the main findings and recommendations of the OECD Economic Survey of Spain 2014 launched 8 September 2014 in Madrid, Spain.
Structural reforms (labour market, banking, fiscal) have put the economy on the road to recovery.
Demographic Change and Expenditure Pressures in IrelandDaragh McCarthy
Presentation by Dr Thomas Conefrey—Chief Economist, Irish Fiscal Advisory Council—focuses on government spending and presents preliminary work that attempts to quantify the likely pressures on the government finances in Ireland due to population ageing and other demographic trends over the next 50 years.
Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση,
σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ
στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019
στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel.
Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης
Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html
Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση,
σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ
στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019
στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel.
Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης
Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html
A presentation of the main findings and recommendations of the OECD Economic Survey of Spain 2014 launched 8 September 2014 in Madrid, Spain.
Structural reforms (labour market, banking, fiscal) have put the economy on the road to recovery.
Highlights from the 2014 edition of the OECD's Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/public-debt/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση,
σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ
στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019
στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel.
Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης
Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html
Highlights from the 2014 edition of the OECD's Sovereign Borrowing Outlook. This includes gross borrowing requirements, net borrowing requirements, central government marketable debt, funding strategies and instruments and distribution channels.
Find out more information at http://www.oecd.org/daf/fin/public-debt/oecdsovereignborrowingoutlook.htm
Για τρίτη συνεχή χρονιά, ο Κύκλος ιδεών για την Εθνική Ανασυγκρότηση,
σε συνεργασία με τη Συμεών Γ. Τσομώκος Α.Ε., πραγματοποιούν το ετήσιο διήμερο συνέδριο H ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΜΕΤΑ
στις 19 και 20 Ιουνίου 2019
στο ξενοδοχείο Divani Caravel.
Κεντρικό θέμα στο φετινό συνέδριο είναι: Η ανασύσταση της μεσαίας τάξης
Κύκλος ΙΙ: Οι επιπτώσεις της περιόδου 2009- 2019 στη μεσαία τάξη
https://ekyklos.gr/19-20-iouniou-ellada-meta-iii-i-anasystasi-tis-mesaias-taksis.html
On 23 January, ESRI researcher Barra Roantree delivered this presentation at the Barrington lecture whilst receving the Statistical Society's Barrington prize.
A press release for the study can be found here:
https://www.esri.ie/news/irish-tax-system-does-most-in-europe-to-reduce-inequality
Presentation of Prof. Lars Feld - The Economic Situation in EMU - Where do we...Bankenverband
GCEE Business Cycle Update, March 2018: “In the euro area, the level of indebtedness of many member states remains very high. This is particularly true of Italy where the national debt stands at over 130 % of GDP. Should financial markets lose confidence in the sustainability of public debt on account of the political uncertainty resulting from the outcome of the election, given the size of the Italian economy a return of the euro crisis cannot be ruled out. Furthermore, risks to financial stability continue to persist in certain member states due to the fragility of many banks, particularly with regard to the extent of non-performing loans.”
2017 European Goodwill Impairment StudyDuff & Phelps
Now in its fifth edition, the 2017 European Goodwill Impairment Study (2017 Study) continues to examine general goodwill impairment trends across countries and industries within the European market.
Affordability, Finance and Meeting Demand: Challenges in the Irish Housing Ma...Daragh McCarthy
Overview of some important issues in the housing market in the Republic of Ireland. Focus on the affordability of housing costs, scope for increased investment and a quick look at the demographic and economic pressures driving demand.
Joseph Curtin, Research Fellow at the Institute of International and European Affairs on climate policy, provides an overview of Ireland’s climate change challenge within the context of the upcoming Paris COP 21 and EU climate 2030 negotiations. He reviews Ireland’s progress to date, and presents options for meeting future international commitments.
This paper discusses the Irish economy’s recent growth performance and considers its medium-and-long-term prospects for growth. A range of policy reforms to increase the economy’s long-run potential output are identified. The best way to sustain productivity growth is to increase investment in education and skills, particularly early years learning; to increase investment in the production, diffusion and use of new ideas, and to increase investment in productivity enhancing infrastructure.
Presentation on the extent of precarious work in the Republic of Ireland and evidence on the impact this type of work has on workers and the economy. Charts based on recent data from the OECD.
A Future Worth Working For: A Long-Term Vision for the Irish EconomyDaragh McCarthy
Director of the NERI, Tom Healy sets out the parameters for a clear, long-term vision for the Irish economy to emerge. The seminar is based on a recent working paper, "The Better is yet to Come," available at www.nerinstitute.net.
NERI Seminar: Deprivation on the Island of IrelandDaragh McCarthy
The slides cover the conceptual underpinnings of the 2011 Pobal Haase-Pratschke (HP) Deprivation Index for Small Areas, but also briefly allude to the Longitudinal and All-Island HP Deprivation Indices.
This presentation examines the evidence on outsourcing through the framework of Value for Money (VFM). This framework allows for the consideration and analysis of evidence through focusing on three main criteria, Economy, Efficiency and Effectiveness. It highlights the complexity of decision-making on outsourcing and argues that the merits and risks of contracting-out should be assessed in a comprehensive way.
Slides from December 2014 seminar on lessons from the crisis. The seminar was hosted by the Nevin Economic Research Institute in the INTO Learning Centre. The seminar was given by Gerry Kearns and David Meredith, and drew on their recent book on the "Irish Crisis: Spatial Justice and the Irish Crisis."
Esmond Birnie's slides from his presentation at the Nevin Economic Research I...Daragh McCarthy
Esmond Birnie's, slides from his presentation at the Nevin Economic Research Institute's seminar on devolution post the Scottish referendum on independence. The seminar was held on November 18, 2014.
Stephen Boyd, NERI Seminar on Devolution Post Scottish Referendum on Independ...Daragh McCarthy
Stephen Boyd's slides from his presentation at the Nevin Economic Research Institute's seminar on devolution post the Scottish referendum on independence. The seminar was held on November 18, 2014.
Slides from the Nevin Economic Research Institute's post Budget seminar. Speakers Michelle Murphy (Social Justice Ireland), Cormac Staunton (TASC) and Michael Taft (UNITE)
Donate to charity during this holiday seasonSERUDS INDIA
For people who have money and are philanthropic, there are infinite opportunities to gift a needy person or child a Merry Christmas. Even if you are living on a shoestring budget, you will be surprised at how much you can do.
Donate Us
https://serudsindia.org/how-to-donate-to-charity-during-this-holiday-season/
#charityforchildren, #donateforchildren, #donateclothesforchildren, #donatebooksforchildren, #donatetoysforchildren, #sponsorforchildren, #sponsorclothesforchildren, #sponsorbooksforchildren, #sponsortoysforchildren, #seruds, #kurnool
Preliminary findings _OECD field visits to ten regions in the TSI EU mining r...OECDregions
Preliminary findings from OECD field visits for the project: Enhancing EU Mining Regional Ecosystems to Support the Green Transition and Secure Mineral Raw Materials Supply.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
About Potato, The scientific name of the plant is Solanum tuberosum (L).Christina Parmionova
The potato is a starchy root vegetable native to the Americas that is consumed as a staple food in many parts of the world. Potatoes are tubers of the plant Solanum tuberosum, a perennial in the nightshade family Solanaceae. Wild potato species can be found from the southern United States to southern Chile
Synopsis (short abstract) In December 2023, the UN General Assembly proclaimed 30 May as the International Day of Potato.
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Working with data is a challenge for many organizations. Nonprofits in particular may need to collect and analyze sensitive, incomplete, and/or biased historical data about people. In this talk, Dr. Cori Faklaris of UNC Charlotte provides an overview of current AI capabilities and weaknesses to consider when integrating current AI technologies into the data workflow. The talk is organized around three takeaways: (1) For better or sometimes worse, AI provides you with “infinite interns.” (2) Give people permission & guardrails to learn what works with these “interns” and what doesn’t. (3) Create a roadmap for adding in more AI to assist nonprofit work, along with strategies for bias mitigation.
RFP for Reno's Community Assistance CenterThis Is Reno
Property appraisals completed in May for downtown Reno’s Community Assistance and Triage Centers (CAC) reveal that repairing the buildings to bring them back into service would cost an estimated $10.1 million—nearly four times the amount previously reported by city staff.
Monitoring Health for the SDGs - Global Health Statistics 2024 - WHOChristina Parmionova
The 2024 World Health Statistics edition reviews more than 50 health-related indicators from the Sustainable Development Goals and WHO’s Thirteenth General Programme of Work. It also highlights the findings from the Global health estimates 2021, notably the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy and healthy life expectancy.
2. You consider the following issues:
Growth rates will de-accelerate by half over the next few years: GDP growth will
fall from 6.2% this year to 3.2% by 2018 and tail off further at the end of the
decade.
The tailwinds – low oil prices, low interest rates, favourable exchange rates –
unlikely to be maintained to the end of the decade
Uncertainty over our corporate tax regime with international negotiations, e.g.
OECD BEPS and EU CCCTB
A potential corporate tax revenue bubble emerging – with revenue expected to
grow by over 40% within two years
Uncertainty over unwinding monetary policies: IMF warns of global recession if
interest rates are increased BUT central banks warn of financial instability caused
by increasing asset bubbles if low rates persist
The Department of Finance calls these ‘considerable uncertainties’
Is this the best time to cut your revenue stream?
4. The cuts in USC represented
76% of net tax cuts.
USC is the ultimate anti-
avoidance tax: simple and
transparent with limited reliefs.
Finance Minister andTaoiseach
have promised to abolish USC in
the next Dail.
The biggest beneficiaries: high
income groups / tax avoidance
industry.
There was a campaign to cut
inheritances taxes on the basis of
increased Dublin property prices.
Economists agree that taxing
passive income is preferable to
taxing labour.
Between 1965 and 1974, revenue
from inheritance tax averaged 4.7%
of GDP. 2016 estimate: 1.7% (the
difference is €600 million)
Budget cut in inheritance tax
(increased thresholds) cost €33
million.
An inheritance of €500,000 to
benefit by €18,000.
5. OECD: AverageTax Rates Single Person (%)
Low Pay - €18,000 Average Pay - € 36,000 High Pay - €85,000
Denmark 36.2 Denmark 38.1 Denmark 47.8
Germany 26.9 Germany 33.1 Netherlands 40.9
Belgium 23.6 Belgium 32.6 Belgium 40.8
Austria 20.1 Greece 29.3 Germany 39.9
France 18.6 Netherlands 28.5 Ireland 35.6
Average 18.0 Austria 27.6 Finland 35.2
Netherlands 18.0 Average 25.5 Average 34.8
Finland 16.9 Finland 24.8 Austria 34.4
UK 15.7 Italy 23.9 Italy 32.4
Sweden 15.5 Portugal 22.3 Portugal 32.2
Italy 13.9 UK 21.4 Sweden 32.2
Portugal 13.8 France 20.8 Greece 31.5
Greece 12.7 Sweden 18.6 UK 30.2
Spain 11.7 Ireland 18.5 Spain 27.7
Ireland 9.0 Spain 17.7 France 25.8
7. As Minister for Finance you are sceptical of cutting
taxes given the Department of Finance’s
‘considerable uncertainties’
You are sceptical that cutting taxes for people who
are already low-taxed will reap benefits in living
standards while public services are starved
What do you?
You return to the first principles of economic growth
You return to evidence-based policy
8. Investment is the single biggest driver of economic growth. In the
last 25 years, investment was responsible for over 50% of Irish
growth (similar to other advanced economies). Low investment =
long-term low growth.
Irish public investment ranks 26th out of 28 EU countries –approx.
2% of GDP.
Under the Government’s Capital Programme, public investment
will remain at 2% of GDP by 2021.
To reach Ireland’s 35-year average, investment would have to
increase from €27 billion to €40 billion over the next 6 years –
advanced broadband, water & waste, social housing, green
technologies, public transport
AND: this doesn’t count the fact that private sector investment
(excl. R&D) is nearly 20 % below EU average.
9. Education and skills
(labour quantity and
quality) is the next
biggest driver of
economic growth.
Irish expenditure per
pupil is low compared to
other EU-15 countries.
Ireland would have to
increase spending by
40% to reach average of
reporting countries
(more if PPS were used).
13,176
11,970
9,802
9,423
9,418
8,993
8,001
7,660
6,285
5,967
5,518
Sweden
Denmark
Finland
Belgium
Austria
Mean Average
UK
Germany
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Expenditure per Pupil All ISCED
Levels: 2013 (€)
10. While not a growth accounting category, there is
increased interest in the relationship between
inequality and growth.
The IMF estimates that, in terms of income shares,
the most positive growth benefit comes from
increasing the income share of the lowest 20%
income group while increasing the income share of
the highest income group results in negative growth.
Reducing inequality is not just about cash transfers – it
also relates to access to public services (health,
education). Nor is it about the tax/social transfer
process.
11. Ireland has a high level of market
inequality. To address this:
Raise statutory wage floors (e.g.
minimum wage, JLCs, Living
Wage)
Increase labour rights (collective
bargaining, part-time workers’
rights)
Increase social wage – to provide
pay-related social protection
benefits and access to public
services for free or at below-
market rates (e.g. health).
Rebalance indigenous sector (17%
employed by market indigenous
firms are in the hospitality sector
– 9% average in the EU).
23
26.4
31
38.5
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
At-Risk of Poverty Before Social
Transfers (Pensions Excluded):
2000 - 2013 (%)
EU-15 Ireland
12. Childcare: to increase labour
supply
Poverty Reduction – poverty
impairs human capital; in
particular, child poverty
Social Housing – new cost-
rental models to deliver off-
balance sheet investment (e.g.
public housing associations);
rebalance economy from rentier
to productive sectors and
facilitate labour supply
But increasing public
expenditure not always the full
answer
2013 Health Expenditure (% of GDP)
Irish health expenditure is 7% above
mean EU-15 average.
Spending on Hospital Services 44%
below EU average
Spending on outpatients services is
59% above EU average
Spending on medicines and medical
equipment is 32% above EU average
Administrative costs are double that
of the EU average
Outpatients and medicines /
equipment is where the system
interfaces with private agents and for-
profit incentives. Is this driving costs?
13. The Government’s baseline envisages eliminating the structural
deficit) by 2018. However, we are not required to do so until 2020. By
maximising the fiscal space the next government would have an
additional €6 billion extra to spend over the next four years.
However, this will not be sufficient to drive the necessary social and
economic investment.
This means not only abandoning the tax-cutting agenda; it means
increasing revenue.This is the future dividing line:
Cut or raise taxation
Shrink or expand investment and the social state
Undermine or promote long-term sustainable growth.
If you are the Minister for Finance the choice is clear, the choice is
stark.