Briefly discusses the telecom and media revolutions in India. The article concludes that a large part of voting in India's next General Election in 2019 would be decided from homes and that such choices would make voters much more conscious of seeking accountability of their elected representatives.

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Telecom Revolution in India’s Elections and Governance - I
Shantanu Basu
US President John Madison (1809-17) said, “The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is
the only guardian of true liberty”. Yet Lysander Spooner (1808-87) the American political
philosopher, essayist and entrepreneur qualified Madison, saying “Those who are capable of
tyranny are capable of perjury to sustain it.” If knowledge were the truest guardian of liberty,
it was equally true that knowledge could be turned on its head and become the cause for
tyranny based upon misrepresentation and misuse of knowledge, peddled as lies, often
abominable ones. That is exactly what the telecom revolution sweeping across India is doing
and in it may well lay the seeds of an emerging new political order, one that is young,
dynamic, transparent and accountable on a day-by-day basis.
India’s Telecom Regulatory Authority’s statistics are very revealing. The number of mobile
phone users in India exploded by 279 million from Mar 2014 to Mar 2018, i.e. 31%. Of these,
150 million or 54% were in rural areas. The combined rural-urban monthly growth that was a
tiny 0.13% in Mar 2014 rose to a phenomenal 2.29%, an eighteen-fold rise. Rural wireless
users comprised 44% of all users in Mar 2014 against 41% in Mar 2014. In terms of wireless
tele-density, rural areas showed a 15% rise competing on equal terms with urban areas. The
disparity in terms of absolute urban-rural populations that was 161 million in Mar 2014
reduced to 141 million in Mar 2018, i.e. by about 12-13%.
In tandem, mobile broadband users rose from 61 million in Mar 2014 to 394 million in Mar
2018, i.e. six-fold. While the internet user base in India is growing at a rapid rate, most of
these users (75%) belong to the age group of less than 35 years. More than half of the app
users in India are aged between 18 and 24 years and a further 29% between 25 and 35. Forty
Five per cent of these users reside in the four metros. In fact, 91% of broadband users are in
the age group of 15-44 with 75% being in age group of 15-34. On an average, an internet
connected user in India spends 14% of his or her time and 17% of his or her monthly
spending on entertainment. Combined spend by an internet user on Mobile and Entertainment
increased by 34% in two years from 2012 to 2014.
In terms of media consumption, an average mobile web user in India consumes about 6.2
hours of media daily which includes 102 minutes of mobile media and 79 minutes of online
(desktop) media consumption. Social media and entertainment (Music & Video) are the two
activities on which the Indian mobile internet users spend their time the most followed by
games, general search, and emails. Out of the total time spent on digital media by youths,
about 21% of the time is spent on audio and video entertainment. Spending per month by
users on digital media especially entertainment is expected to grow by 2.5 times by 2020. In
July 2014, a user in age group 15-24 years watched 66.8 online videos on an average while
user above 45 years of age watched only 53.2 videos in that month. The spread of Internet in
India is visible from the fact that in 2015 Indians owned 700 million feature phone (E-mail,
Social networking apps and Web browser app), 164 million smart phones; 2 million 3G sets,
10 million 3G/4G dongles while 18.7 million had access to Wi-Fi or wired broadband. The

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sale of smart phones is expected to grow to 655 million by 2020, i.e. nearly four-fold in just
five years. About 65% of Indians shared their videos through mobile as compared to 53%
globally during 2013. 41 This has led to a speedy growth in user-generated content platforms.
With that high usage of online videos total Internet video traffic in India is expected to be
72% of all Indian Internet traffic in 2018, up from 45% in 2013.
Alongside, television ownership too has risen from 169 million households and is estimated
to touch 182 million by Mar, 2019, i.e. a conservative 8%. Yet in absolute numbers, the
BARC Broadcast Survey 2016 showed India’s TV viewing universe at 780 million in 2017,
up by 16% since 2013. The BARC study showed nuclear families, without elders, were on
the rise. The family size has declined from 4.39 in 2015 to 4.15 in 2016. In fact, the average
family size even in TV-owning households of rural India is shrinking. As per the Indian
Readership Survey 2013, the average family size in rural India was 4.71 compared to 4.63
now. Rural India has 17% more TV owning households than urban India. The urban-rural
split in terms of percentage of TV penetration too has changed from 49:51 to 46:54. A
comparison of TV viewership data in the 41st week of 2015 against the 41st week of 2016
showed that TV impressions in India increased by 24%—18% in urban and 30% in rural
India. Not just this, even the average time spent jumped 21%—17% in urban India and 26%
in rural. Soaps followed by film-based programmes were a hit among rural audiences. Private
TV channels numbered 883 as of Jun, 2017. Of these, 456 were news channels. The
penetration of vernacular TV channels is concomitantly spectacular. These channels
broadcast in diverse languages such as Hindi, Bengali, Oriya, Tamil, Telugu, Kannada,
Malayalam, Sindhi, Gujarati, Kashmiri, Maithili, North-eastern languages and innumerable
more. They are also more state and local centric than national channels.
E.M. Forster once said, “We are not concerned with the very poor. They are unthinkable, and
only to be approached by the statistician or the poet.” Ironically, it is the spread of
communications technology that could see the emergence of a far more accountable and
stable political order after the next general election in India by bringing 72% of India’s total
population (rural areas) finally into the ambit of government.
However, there are several challenges. First, rural areas that account for nearly three-quarters
of India’s population can be directly targeted 24x7. Information, disinformation and
misinformation overflow would certainly occur amongst subscribers. Second, targeting
comes at a premium. Simple bulk messaging will no longer do. Crisp professionally produced
audio-video clips would have to be devised in formats that would support 700 million feature
phones and 166 million smart phones that is a pricey proposition. Yet the fact of audio-video
and mobile FM transmission that are the rage of vast sections of an unemployed work force
cannot remain understated. (1087 words) To be continued
The author is a senior public policy analyst and commentator

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Telecom Revolution in India’s Elections and Governance – II
Shantanu Basu
Third, political advertisements in soap slots do not come cheap either, the closer it gets to
election dates. Therefore, clips would have to be produced that would be effective and
deliverable in say a 7-10 second slot, unlike the rank crudity and lack of brevity that is their
hallmark today. Fourth, Internet speeds being erratic, more effort, and perhaps money, would
have to be devoted to compression technologies that can seamlessly move across India. Fifth,
with unemployment running high in the age group of 15-34 years, a group that has had
benefit of education, who are addicted to audio-video on their mobile devices, false promises
of jobs in a distant future are no good. This young generation that Indian politician’s delight
in labeling the country’s ‘demographic dividend’ is a deadly cocktail of economic
deprivation, dependency and frustration. Many, those are able to distill the truth between fake
and real news and the achievements and failures of politicians, in audio-video clips from
vernacular media channels, will be the most difficult target group for any political party. Yet
they cannot be ignored since they constitute over 40% of the national electorate.
Sixth, with rapidly increasing access to news and views, beamed onto their palms or from
vernacular TV channels, voters beyond age 44 years with greater political maturity than their
younger groups are turning potent opinion-makers at the village level, away from the political
sarpanches. Seventh, women voters too have moved up the education ladder and a large
number in rural areas not only have Internet access but also vernacular TV access are another,
perhaps far more discerning, voting group. They face the worst of the economic crisis and
thus their voice is increasingly showing up in election voting participation. For them, media
communication strategies would have to be devised, again none of it being cheap. Yet, like
the overlapping group of youngsters, they constitute almost 50% of India’s national electorate
and cannot be ignored.
Eighth, mobile-Internet connectivity coupled with vernacular media channels make a heady
brew and often complement one another, even as they contradict. It is such congruence and
divergence of opinions, false promises, performance, corruption and criminal acts of
politicians that will be beamed across India on a 24x7 basis. Live Internet telecast of news,
legislative debates, panel debates, notably in the vernacular would favor regional parties the
most, although the converse is equally true. Internet and vernacular channel political
campaigning do not cost a bomb although developing content does. Equally, promises made
during campaigns will be increasingly held to account owing to ready-at-hand access to
information, often beamed live.
Ninth, governments will be hard pressed to deliver content that is truthful and verifiable
while election manifestos could serve as the benchmark for performance or rejection.
Governments’ performance will be watched and judged more closely than ever before.
Already election results point to a fast developing political consciousness not based upon
rabble-rousing and brazen bribery. For political parties, other than those in power, the
Internet-mobile-vernacular TV provides a Heaven-sent opportunity to showcase their abilities

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and intents. All would however, do well to remember that an opportunity missed now could
remain a lifelong regret.
Last, over a billion Internet-enabled handhelds may translate into an arbitrary 60% of the
total votes (after discounting more than a single handset/head and those below voting age).
Assuming a conservative average of 10 lakh votes per Lok Sabha constituency, owners of
mobile and Internet connections would hold the fate of each Lok Sabha seat on their
fingertip. In such scenario, every percentage of users shifting their political loyalties has the
potential of switching about 6 lakh votes from one candidate to another that could cause a
catastrophic loss for any party. Voter preferences remain a secret till results are out since
many do not attend political rallies (unless incentivized in cash or kind), rather frame their
voting decisions at home. It is also for this reason that election surveys and polls are
becoming unreliable with each passing day.
The Information Age is fast exploding on India. The country’s next general election will be
fought from the confines of voters’ homes rather than from the public rallying fields.
Advances in communications will prompt people to make informed choices of the candidates
they elect and hold them accountable to hitherto unprecedented measure. Already Internet-
based campaigning is claiming political casualties over a large number of elections in the last
3-4 years. That the Internet-mobile-TV combine is a double-edged sword is also quite
apparent from recent election reversals of parties in power. If India’s ‘demographic dividend’
is indeed worthy of harvest, it is voters in the age group of 18-54 years led by equally young,
professionally accomplished, honest and energetic leaders than can deliver growth and
prosperity. In this 18-54 generation also lies India’s deliverance from suffering and decline,
not in the politics of jaded and discredited politicians that indulge in the most venal and
guttering mutual vituperative, bribery and violence for their personal gain. Telecom is the
greatest leveler of fortune, the greatest virtue of India’s fledgling democracy. (840 words)
Concluded
The author is a senior public policy analyst and commentator