Briefly analyses the spread of telecom and visual media in India since the last general election in 2019. This article analyses thespread and then relates it to the general election 2019 in India. It concludes that this election could well be fought from home and on hands than in public rallies. This revolution would also probably usher in a whole new paradigm of real time accountability in governance and cause politicians to be responsive to their electors.

1. Telecom Revolution in India’s Elections and Governance
US President John Madison (1809-17) said, “The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the
only guardian of true liberty”. Yet Lysander Spooner (1808-87) the American political
philosopher, essayist and entrepreneur qualified Madison, saying “Those who are capable of
tyranny are capable of perjury to sustain it.” If knowledge were the truest guardian of liberty, it
was equally true that knowledge could be turned on its head and become the cause for tyranny
based upon misrepresentation and misuse of knowledge, peddled as lies, often abominable ones.
That is exactly what the telecom revolution sweeping across India is doing and in it may well lay
the seeds of an emerging new political order, one that is young, dynamic, transparent and
accountable on a day-by-day basis.
India’s Telecom Regulatory Authority’s statistics1 are very revealing. The number of mobile
phone users in India exploded by 279 million from Mar 2014 to Mar 2018, i.e. 31%. Of these,
150 million or 54% were in rural areas. The combined rural-urban monthly growth that was a
tiny 0.13% in Mar 2014 rose to a phenomenal 2.29%, an eighteen-fold rise. Rural wireless users
comprised 44% of all users in Mar 2014 against 41% in Mar 2014. In terms of wireless tele-
density, rural areas showed a 15% rise competing on equal terms with urban areas. The disparity
in terms of absolute urban-rural populations that was 161 million in Mar 2014 reduced to 141
million in Mar 2018, i.e. by about 12-13%.
In tandem, mobile broadband users rose from 61 million in Mar 2014 to 394 million in Mar
2018, i.e. six-fold. While the internet user base in India is growing at a rapid rate, most of these
users (75%) belong to the age group of less than 35 years. More than half of the app users in
India are aged between 18 and 24 years and a further 29% between 25 and 35. Forty Five per
cent of these users reside in the four metros. In fact, 91% of broadband users are in the age group
of 15-44 with 75% being in age group of 15-34.2 On an average, an internet connected user in
India spends 14% of his or her time and 17% of his or her monthly spending on entertainment.
Combined spend by an internet user on Mobile and Entertainment increased by 34% in two years
from 2012 to 2014.
In terms of media consumption, an average mobile web user in India consumes about 6.2 hours
of media daily which includes 102 minutes of mobile media and 79 minutes of online (desktop)
media consumption. Social media and entertainment (Music & Video) are the two activities on
which the Indian mobile internet users spend their time the most followed by games, general
search, and emails. Out of the total time spent on digital media by youths, about 21% of the time
is spent on audio and video entertainment. Spending per month by users on digital media
especially entertainment is expected to grow by 2.5 times by 2020.3 In July 2014, a user in age
group 15-24 years watched 66.8 online videos on an average while user above 45 years of age
watched only 53.2 videos in that month. The spread of Internet in India is visible from the fact
1 Telecom Regulatory Authority of India: Press ReleaseNo. 25/2014 and No. 56/2018
2 Vserv: The Rise of India as an App Superpower, Vserv.mobi dated March 28, 2013 extracted from
http://www.vserv.com/the-rise-of-india-as-an-app-superpower/ on May 31, 2018
3 Hindustan Times: Youth and consumerism: Money matters extracted from
http://www.hindustantimes.com/specials/coverage/youthsurvey2014/
ys2014_youth_and_consumerism/youth-and-consumerism-money-matters/sp-article10-1250749.aspx on
May 31, 2018

2. that in 2015 Indians owned 700 million feature phone (E-mail, Social networking apps and Web
browser app), 164 million smart phones; 2 million 3G sets, 10 million 3G/4G dongles while 18.7
million had access to Wi-Fi or wired broadband. The sale of smart phones is expected to grow to
655 million by 2020, i.e. nearly four-fold in just five years.4 About 65% of Indians shared their
videos through mobile as compared to 53% globally during 2013. 41 This has led to a speedy
growth in user-generated content platforms. With that high usage of online videos total Internet
video traffic in India is expected to be 72% of all Indian Internet traffic in 2018, up from 45% in
2013.
Alongside, television ownership too has risen from 169 million households and is estimated to
touch 182 million by Mar, 2019, i.e. a conservative 8%5. Yet in absolute numbers, the BARC
Broadcast Survey 2016 showed India’s TV viewing universe at 780 million in 2017, up by 16%
since 20136. The BARC study showed nuclear families, without elders, were on the rise. The
family size has declined from 4.39 in 2015 to 4.15 in 2016. In fact, the average family size even
in TV-owning households of rural India is shrinking. As per the Indian Readership Survey 2013,
the average family size in rural India was 4.71 compared to 4.63 now. Rural India has 17% more
TV owning households than urban India. The urban-rural split in terms of percentage of TV
penetration too has changed from 49:51 to 46:54. A comparison of TV viewership data in the
41st week of 2015 against the 41st week of 2016 showed that TV impressions in India increased
by 24%—18% in urban and 30% in rural India. Not just this, even the average time spent jumped
21%—17% in urban India and 26% in rural. Soaps followed by film-based programmes were a
hit among rural audiences7. Private TV channels numbered 883 as of Jun, 2017. Of these, 456
were news channels.8 The penetration of vernacular TV channels is concomitantly spectacular.
These channels broadcast in diverse languages such as Hindi, Bengali, Oriya, Tamil, Telugu,
Kannada, Malayalam, Sindhi, Gujarati, Kashmiri, Maithili, North-eastern languages and
innumerable more. They are also more state and local centric than national channels9.
E.M. Forster once said, “We are not concerned with the very poor. They are unthinkable, and
only to be approached by the statistician or the poet.” Ironically, it is the spread of
communications technology that could see the emergence of a far more accountable and stable
political order after the next general election in India by bringing 72% of India’s total population
(rural areas) finally into the ambit of government.
4 Deloitte: Digital Media - Rise of On-demand Content extracted from
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/in/Documents/technology-media-
telecommunications/in-tmt-rise-of-on-demand-content.pdf on May 31, 2018, p.10, 23, 28, 31
5 Statista: Number of TV households in India from 2016 to 2021 (in millions) extracted from
https://www.statista.com/statistics/694806/india-tv-households/ on May 31 2018
6 Srivastav, Arpit: TV Viewership in India – March 2017 – BARC Broadcast India Survey dated Mar 9, 2017
extracted from https://marketinglessons.in/tv-viewership-india-barc-2017/ on May 31, 2018
7 Bansal, Shuchi: The rise of rural TV viewers dated Jan 12, 2017 extracted from
https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/csfQeJ917E5WmNiFfoSl7L/The-rise-of-rural-TV-viewers.html on May
31, 2018
8 Indian Television: Total private TV channels now 883, six more cancellations in June 2017 dated Jul 13,
2017 extracted from http://www.indiantelevision.com/regulators/ib-ministry/total-of-private-tv-channels-
rises-to-883-six-more-cancellations-in-june-2017-170713 on May 31, 2018
9 Ministry of Information & Broadcasting, Govt. of India: Master List of Permitted Private Satellite TV
Channels as on 31.05.2017 extracted from
http://mib.nic.in/sites/default/files/Master%20List%20of%20Permitted%20Private%20%20statellite%20
TV%20Channels%20as%20on%2031.05.2017_0.pdf on May 31, 2018

3. However, there are several challenges. First, rural areas that account for nearly three-quarters of
India’s population can be directly targeted 24x7. Information, disinformation and misinformation
overflow would certainly occur amongst subscribers. Second, targeting comes at a premium.
Simple bulk messaging will no longer do. Crisp professionally produced audio-video clips would
have to be devised in formats that would support 700 million feature phones and 166 million
smart phones that is a pricey proposition. Yet the fact of audio-video and mobile FM
transmission that are the rage of vast sections of an unemployed work force cannot be
understated. Third, political advertisements in soap slots do not come cheap either, the closer it
gets to election dates. Therefore, clips would have to be produced that would be effective and
deliverable in say a 7-10 second slot, unlike the rank crudity and lack of brevity that is their
hallmark today. Fourth, Internet speeds being erratic, more effort, and perhaps money, would
have to be devoted to compression technologies that can seamlessly move across India.
Fifth, with unemployment running high in the age group of 15-34 years, a group that has had
benefit of education, who are addicted to audio-video on their mobile devices, false promises of
jobs in a distant future are no good. This young generation that Indian politician’s delight in
labeling the country’s ‘demographic dividend’ is a deadly cocktail of economic deprivation,
dependency and frustration. Many, those are able to distill the truth between fake and real news
and the achievements and failures of politicians, in audio-video clips from vernacular media
channels, will be the most difficult target group for any political party. Yet they cannot be
ignored since they constitute over 40% of the national electorate.
Sixth, with rapidly increasing access to news and views, beamed onto their palms or from
vernacular TV channels, voters beyond age 44 years with greater political maturity than their
younger groups are turning potent opinion-makers at the village level, away from the political
sarpanches and patwaris. Seventh, women voters too have moved up the education ladder and a
large number in rural areas not only have Internet access but also vernacular TV access are
another, perhaps far more discerning, voting group. They face the worst of the economic crisis
and thus their voice is increasingly showing up in election voting participation. For them, media
communication strategies would have to be devised, again none of it being cheap. Yet, like the
overlapping group of youngsters, they constitute almost 50% of India’s national electorate and
cannot be ignored.
Eighth, mobile-Internet connectivity coupled with vernacular media channels make a heady brew
and often complement one another, even as they contradict. It is such congruence and divergence
of opinions, false promises, performance, corruption and criminal acts of politicians that will be
beamed across India on a 24x7 basis. Live Internet telecast of news, legislative debates, panel
debates, notably in the vernacular would favor regional parties the most, although the converse is
equally true. Internet and vernacular channel political campaigning do not cost a bomb although
developing content does. Equally, promises made during campaigns will be increasingly held to
account owing to ready-at-hand access to information, often beamed live.
Ninth, governments will be hard pressed to deliver content that is truthful and verifiable while
election manifestos could serve as the benchmark for performance or rejection. Governments’
performance will be watched and judged more closely than ever before. Already election results
point to a fast developing political consciousness not based upon rabble-rousing and brazen
bribery. For political parties, other than those in power, the Internet-mobile-vernacular TV
provides a Heaven-sent opportunity to showcase their abilities and intents. All would however,
do well to remember that an opportunity missed now could remain a lifelong regret.

4. Last, over a billion Internet-enabled handhelds may translate into an arbitrary 60% of the total
votes (after discounting more than a single handset/head and those below voting age). Assuming
a conservative average of 10 lakh votes per Lok Sabha constituency, owners of mobile and
Internet connections would hold the fate of each Lok Sabha seat on their fingertip. In such
scenario, every percentage of users shifting their political loyalties has the potential of switching
about 6 lakh votes from one candidate to another that could cause a catastrophic loss for any
party. Voter preferences remain a secret till results are out since many do not attend political
rallies (unless incentivized in cash or kind), rather frame their voting decisions at home. It is also
for this reason that election surveys and polls are becoming unreliable with each passing day.
The Information Age is fast exploding on India. The country’s next general election will be
fought from the confines of voters’ homes rather than from the public rallying fields. Advances
in communications will prompt people to make informed choices of the candidates they elect and
hold them accountable to hitherto unprecedented measure. Already Internet-based campaigning
is claiming political casualties over a large number of elections in the last 3-4 years. That the
Internet-mobile-TV combine is a double-edged sword is also quite apparent from recent election
reversals of parties in power. If India’s ‘demographic dividend’ is indeed worthy of harvest, it is
voters in the age group of 18-54 years led by equally young, professionally accomplished, honest
and energetic leaders than can deliver growth and prosperity. In this 18-54 generation also lies
India’s deliverance from suffering and decline, not in the politics of jaded and discredited
politicians that indulge in the most venal and guttering mutual vituperative, bribery and violence
for their personal gain. Telecom is the greatest leveler of fortune, the greatest virtue of India’s
fledgling democracy.