1. The document examines the impacts of land use policies in China and Laos that have led to the replacement of swidden agriculture with rubber plantations. 2. While policies in both countries aimed to increase rubber production, their impacts on smallholders diverged greatly due to differences in government support. 3. REDD+ policies that only incentivize increased tree cover risk negatively impacting livelihoods, as seen in Laos where smallholders lost land access without support. Designing effective REDD+ requires considering carbon stocks, livelihoods, and other environmental services.

1. Swidden, Rubber and Carbon: Can REDD+ work for people and the environment in Montane Mainland Southeast Asia? Jefferson Fox, Jean-Christophe Castella, and Alan D. Ziegler East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA; Institute of Research for Development, France; National University of Singapore

3. Introduction For centuries swiddening (also called shifting or slash and burn agriculture) has been practiced in MMSEA by indigenous farmers who managed land in ways that integrated production from both cultivated fields and diverse secondary forests. Today many areas currently or formerly under shifting cultivation are being transformed into other land uses—oil palm, coffee, cocoa, rubber, etc.

8. NR price forecasts to 2011 It ’s the global market . . . ‘stupid’ 8/2011 $4.70 Prachaya. 2009.

9. NR production in major countries, 1990-2011 Prachaya. 2009.

10. Traditional and non-traditional rubber-growing regions

11. Rubber distribution in MMSEA based on 2009 and 2010 250 m MODIS NDVI

13. Historically NR has predominantly been smallholders ’ crop Country Upper limit for small holdings (ha) Share of smallholdings in rubber planted area (%) Malaysia 40.50 93 Thailand 40 90.5 India 20 88.4 Indonesia 25 85 Sri Lanka 20 64 China 50 Vietnam 32 Laos 23

14. Drivers of Change: Xishuangbanna

18. Since 1982 smallholders have planted rubber—mostly monocropping

19. Below 800 m, but even higher, rubber has become ubiquitous

20. But rubber farmers in Xishuangbanna have achieved unprecedented wealth

21. Drivers of Change: Laos (Myanmar, Cambodia, Northwest Vietnam are similar)

26. Unlike in China where the government provided farmers with incentives to grow rubber, the Lao government has not provided farmers with any support.

29. 4. Examine the differences in carbon storage in swidden fallows and rubber plantations to determine if any evidence exist that REDD policies that incentivize transitions from swidden to rubber will create carbon gains.

30. Changes in carbon stocks from different forest land use practices: deforestation, forest degradation, and shifting mosaics.

33. Carbon Values (MgC/ha) Above Ground Below Ground SOC Total Forests 112-376 10-38 36-92 158-536 Fallow (11-25) 24-60 13 60-300 Fallow (5-10) 28-74 60-300 Fallow (<5) 17-22 11 58 40-120 Oil palm 91 1.3 12 40-120 Rubber 15 60-300 Agroforests 95-165 19 60-300 Pasture 3.2 40-120

41. Thank you!