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1. STRAYER MAT 540 Midterm Exam (5 Sets) NEW
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Question 1 Deterministic techniques assume that no
uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2 A joint probability is the probability that two or
more events that are mutually exclusive can occur
simultaneously.
Question 3 A continuous random variable may assume only
integer values within a given interval.
Question 4 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles
decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5 Simulation results will always equal analytical
results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
Question 6 Excel can only be used to simulate systems that
can be represented by continuous random variables.
Question 7 Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical
patterns.
Question 8 The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about
what will occur in the future.

2. Question 9 In Bayesian analysis, additional information is
used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an
event.
Question 10 __________ is a measure of dispersion of random
variable values about the expected value.
Question 11 The __________ is the maximum amount a decision
maker would pay for additional information.
Question 12 Developing the cumulative probability
distribution helps to determine
Question 13 A seed value is a(n)
Question 14 Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order
to be considered truly random.
Question 15 Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for
demand would be
Question 16 __________ is a linear regression model relating
demand to time.
Question 17 worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue
units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that
the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10

3. 400 .18
450 .50
500 .22
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Question 18 __________ methods are the most common type of
forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning
process.
Question 19 In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to
__________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Question 20 Given the following data on the number of pints
of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential
smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Question 21
Question 22 Coefficient of determination is the percentage of
the variation in the __________ variable that results from the
__________ variable.
Question 23 Which of the following possible values of alpha

4. would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly
to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Question 24 Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Question 25 An automotive center keeps tracks of customer
complaints received each week. The probability distribution
for complaints can be represented as a table or a graph, both
shown below. The random variable xi represents the number of
complaints, and p(xi) is the probability of receiving xi
complaints.
xi 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p(xi) .10 .15 .18 .20 .20 .10 .07
What is the average number of complaints received per week?
Round your answer to two places after the decimal.
Question 26 An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs
and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Question 27 A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability
that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?
Round your answer to four places after the decimal.

5. Question 28 A life insurance company wants to estimate their
annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the
lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal
distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation
of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would
receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four
places after the decimal.
Question 29 The local operations manager for the IRS must
decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He
estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers
comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is
given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he uses the maximin criterion, how many new workers will
he hire?
Question 30 An investor is considering 4 different
opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will
depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff
table below.
Economic Condition
Poor Average Good Excellent
Investment (S1) (S2) (S3) (S4)
A 50 75 20 30
B 80 15 40 50
C -100 300 -50 10
D 25 25 25 25

6. If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35,
and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Question 31 A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a
standard deviation of 50. A manager wants to simulate one
value from this distribution, and has drawn the number 1.4
randomly. What is the simulated value?
Question 32 Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-
2008.
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits
after the decimal.
Question 33 The following data summarizes the historical
demand for a product.
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed
forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for
August.
Question 34 Robert wants to know if there is a relation
between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report
your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.
Question 35 Given the following data on the number of pints
of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time

7. frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two
places after the decimal.
Question 36 Given the following data, compute the MAD for the
forecast.
Question 37 Given the following data on the number of pints of
ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two
places after the decimal.
Question 38 The following sales data are available for 2003-
2008 :
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three
significant digits after the decimal.
Question 39 The following data summarizes the historical
demand for a product
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and
42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal
form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be
written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 40 This is the data from the last 4 weeks:

8. Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased
sales for when the number of ads is 10.
MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 2
Question 1 Deterministic techniques assume that no
uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2 A joint probability is the probability that two or
more events that are mutually exclusive can occur
simultaneously.
Question 3 An inspector correctly identifies defective products
90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that
he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Question 4 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles
decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5 Starting conditions have no impact on the validity
of a simulation model.
Question 6 Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can
be represented by continuous random variables.
Question 7 Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical
patterns.
Question 8 Qualitative methods are the least common type of

9. forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning
process.
Question 9 __________ is a measure of dispersion of random
variable values about the expected value.
Question 10 In Bayesian analysis, additional information is
used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an
event.
Question 11 The __________ is the expected value of the regret for
each decision.
Question 12 Developing the cumulative probability
distribution helps to determine
Question 13 A seed value is a(n)
Question 14 In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random
variable are generated by __________ a probability distribution.
Question 15 Two hundred simulation runs were completed
using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table
below. The average number of breakdowns from the
simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
Question 16 In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to
__________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.
Question 17 __________ is absolute error as a percentage of
demand.

10. Question 18 __________ is a category of statistical techniques that
uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 19 Worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue
units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that
the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Question 20 __________ is a linear regression model relating
demand to time.
Question 21 Which of the following possible values of alpha
would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly
to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Question 23 __________ is the difference between the forecast and
actual demand.
Question 24 __________ methods are the most common type of
forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning
process.
Question 25 A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a
mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the
probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer
to four places after the decimal.
Question 26 An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs

11. and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Question 27 A fair die is rolled 8 times. What is the probability
that an even number (2,4, 6) will occur between 2 and 4 times?
Round your answer to four places after the decimal.
Question 28 A life insurance company wants to estimate their
annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the
lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal
distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation
of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would
receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four
places after the decimal.
Question 29 An investor is considering 4 different
opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will
depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff
table below.
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35,
and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Question 30 The local operations manager for the IRS must
decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He
estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers
comply with the new tax code. The following payoff table is
given in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 = $50,000).
If he thinks the chances of low, medium, and high compliance
are 20%, 30%, and 50% respectively, what is the expected
value of perfect information? Note: Please express your

12. answer as a whole number in thousands of dollars (e.g. 50 =
$50,000). Round to the nearest whole number, if necessary.
Question 31 Given the following random number ranges and
the following random number sequence: 62, 13, 25, 40, 86, 93,
determine the average demand for the following distribution of
demand.
Question 32 The following data summarizes the historical
demand for a product
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and
42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal
form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be
written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 33 The following data summarizes the historical
demand for a product.
Use exponential smoothing with α = .2 and the smoothed
forecast for July is 32. Determine the smoothed forecast for
August.
Question 34 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from
least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.
Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Question 35 Robert wants to know if there is a relation
between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report
your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.

13. Question 36 This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased
sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Question 37 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from
least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.
Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving average,
with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights are
applied to the most recent data.
Question 38 Given the following data, compute the MAD for the
forecast.
Year Demand Forecast
Question 39 Given the following data on the number of pints of
ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two
places after the decimal.
Question 40 Given the following data on the number of pints of
ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two
places after the decimal.

14. MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 3
Question 1 Deterministic techniques assume that no
uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2 An inspector correctly identifies defective
products 90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the
probability that he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is
0.736.
Question 3 A continuous random variable may assume only
integer values within a given interval.
Question 4 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles
decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5 Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can
be represented by continuous random variables.
Question 6 A table of random numbers must be normally
distributed and efficiently generated.
Question 7 The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about
what will occur in the future.
Question 8 Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical
patterns.
Question 9 In Bayesian analysis, additional information is
used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an
event.
Question 10 __________ is a measure of dispersion of random

15. variable values about the expected value.
Question 11 The __________ is the maximum amount a decision
maker would pay for additional information.
Question 12 Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order
to be considered truly random.
Question 13 Developing the cumulative probability
distribution helps to determine
Question 14 Consider the following frequency of demand:
If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for
demand would be
Question 15 Random numbers generated by a __________
process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom
numbers.
Question 16 __________ is a category of statistical techniques
that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 17 Given the following data on the number of pints
of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:
If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential
smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Question 18 Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

16. Question 19 Consider the following demand and forecast.
Period Demand Forecast
1 7 10
2 12 15
3 18 20
4 22
If MAD = 2, what is the forecast for period 4?
Question 20 Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 21 __________ methods are the most common type of
forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning
process.
What is the expected value at node 4? Round your answer to
the nearest whole number. Do not include the dollar sign “$” in
your answer.
Question 31 A normal distribution has a mean of 500 and a
standard deviation of
Question 32 Given the following data on the number of pints
of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 6. Use two

17. places after the decimal.
Question 33 The following sales data are available for 2003-
2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009,
where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Question 34 The following data summarizes the historical
demand for a product
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and
42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal
form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be
written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 35 Robert wants to know if there is a relation
between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Note: please report
your answer with 2 places after the decimal point.
Question 36 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week
(from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and
92. Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Question 37 Consider the following annual sales data for
2001-2008.
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits
after the decimal.

18. Question 38 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week
(from least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and
92. Develop a forecast for today using a weighted moving
average, with weights of .6, .3 and .1, where the highest weights
are applied to the most recent data.
Question 39 Given the following data on the number of pints
of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two
places after the decimal.
Question 40 Given the following data, compute the MAD for the
forecast.
MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 4
Question 1 Deterministic techniques assume that no
uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2 An inspector correctly identifies defective products
90% of the time. For the next 10 products, the probability that
he makes fewer than 2 incorrect inspections is 0.736.
Question 3 A joint probability is the probability that two or
more events that are mutually exclusive can occur
simultaneously.
Question 4 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles

19. decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5 Simulation results will always equal analytical
results if 30 trials of the simulation have been conducted.
Question 6 A table of random numbers must be normally
distributed and efficiently generated.
Question 7 The Delphi develops a consensus forecast about
what will occur in the future.
Question 8 Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical
patterns.
Question 9 Assume that it takes a college student an average of
5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.
Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a
standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by
approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find
a parking spot in the main parking lot?
Question 10 In Bayesian analysis, additional information is
used to alter the __________ probability of the occurrence of an
event.
Question 11 The __________ is the expected value of the regret for
each decision.
Question 12 Consider the following frequency of demand:

20. If the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for
demand would be
Question 13 Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order
to be considered truly random.
Question 14 Developing the cumulative probability
distribution helps to determine
Question 15 A seed value is a(n)
Question 16 __________ is a measure of the strength of the
relationship between independent and dependent variables.
Question 17 __________ is a linear regression model relating
demand to time.
Question 18 Coefficient of determination is the percentage of
the variation in the __________ variable that results from the
__________ variable.
Question 19 __________ is the difference between the forecast
and actual demand.
Question 20 Consider the following graph of sales.
Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 21 Given the following data on the number of pints of
ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:

21. If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential
smoothing with α = .40 to compute a forecast for period 7.
Question 22 worth 2 points, 1 hour time limit (chapters 1,ue
units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates that
the yearly yield of limes per acre is distributed as follows:
Yield, bushels per acre Probability
350 .10
400 .18
450 .50
500 .22
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Question 23 __________ methods are the most common type of
forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning
process.
Question 24 __________ is a category of statistical techniques that
uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 25 A life insurance company wants to estimate their
annual payouts. Assume that the probability distribution of the
lifetimes of the participants is approximately a normal
distribution with a mean of 68 years and a standard deviation
of 4 years. What proportion of the plan recipients would
receive payments beyond age 75? Round your answer to four
places after the decimal.
Question 26 A loaf of bread is normally distributed with a
mean of 22 oz and a standard deviation of 0.5 oz. What is the

22. probability that a loaf is larger than 21 oz? Round your answer
to four places after the decimal.
Question 27 The drying rate in an industrial process is
dependent on many factors and varies according to the
following distribution.
Compute the mean drying time. Use two places after the
decimal.
Question 28 An online sweepstakes has the following payoffs
and probabilities. Each person is limited to one entry.
The probability of winning at least $1,000.00 is ________.
Question 29 An investor is considering 4 different
opportunities, A, B, C, or D. The payoff for each opportunity will
depend on the economic conditions, represented in the payoff
table below.
If the probabilities of each economic condition are 0.5, 0.1, 0.35,
and 0.05 respectively, what is the highest expected payoff?
Question 30 The local operations manager for the IRS must
decide whether to hire 1, 2, or 3 temporary workers. He
estimates that net revenues will vary with how well taxpayers
comply with the new tax code.
If he is conservative, how many new workers will he hire?
• Question 31 Consider the following distribution and random
numbers:
If a simulation begins with the first random number, what

23. would the first simulation value would be __________.
• Question 32 This is the data from the last 4 weeks:
Use the equation of the regression line to forecast the increased
sales for when the number of ads is 10.
Question 33 Given the following data on the number of pints of
ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame:
Compute a 3-period moving average for period 4. Use two
places after the decimal.
Question 34 Given the following data, compute the MAD for the
forecast.
Question 35 Consider the following annual sales data for 2001-
2008.
Calculate the correlation coefficient . Use four significant digits
after the decimal.
Question 36 Robert wants to know if there is a relation
between money spent on gambling and winnings.
What is the coefficient of determination? Use two significant
places after the decimal.
Question 37 The following data summarizes the historical
demand for a product
If the forecasted demand for June, July and August is 32, 38 and
42, respectively, what is MAPD? Write your answer in decimal

24. form and not in percentages. For example, 15% should be
written as 0.15. Use three significant digits after the decimal.
Question 38 The following sales data are available for 2003-
2008.
Determine a 4-year weighted moving average forecast for 2009,
where weights are W1 = 0.1, W2 = 0.2, W3 = 0.2 and W4 = 0.5.
Question 39 Daily highs in Sacramento for the past week (from
least to most recent) were: 95, 102, 101, 96, 95, 90 and 92.
Develop a forecast for today using a 2 day moving average.
Question 40 The following sales data are available for 2003-
2008 :
Calculate the absolute value of the average error. Use three
significant digits after the decimal.
MAT 540 Midterm Exam Set 5
Question 1 Deterministic techniques assume that no
uncertainty exists in model parameters.
Question 2 A continuous random variable may assume only
integer values within a given interval.
Question 3 A joint probability is the probability that two or
more events that are mutually exclusive can occur
simultaneously.

25. Question 4 A decision tree is a diagram consisting of circles
decision nodes, square probability nodes, and branches.
Question 5 Excel can only be used to simulate systems that can
be represented by continuous random variables.
Question 6 Starting conditions have no impact on the validity
of a simulation model.
Question 7 Qualitative methods are the least common type of
forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning
process.
Question 8 Data cannot exhibit both trend and cyclical
patterns.
Question 9 Assume that it takes a college student an average
of 5 minutes to find a parking spot in the main parking lot.
Assume also that this time is normally distributed with a
standard deviation of 2 minutes. What time is exceeded by
approximately 75% of the college students when trying to find
a parking spot in the main parking lot?
Question 10 __________ is a measure of dispersion of random
variable values about the expected value.
Question 11 The __________ is the expected value of the regret for
each decision.
Question 12 Consider the following frequency of demand: If
the simulation begins with 0.8102, the simulated value for
demand would be

26. Question 13 Random numbers generated by a __________
process instead of a __________ process are pseudorandom
numbers.
Question 14 Two hundred simulation runs were completed
using the probability of a machine breakdown from the table
below. The average number of breakdowns from the
simulation trials was 1.93 with a standard deviation of 0.20.
No. of breakdowns per week Probability Cumulative
probability
What is the probability of 2 or fewer breakdowns?
Question 15 Pseudorandom numbers exhibit __________ in order
to be considered truly random.
Question 16 __________ is a category of statistical techniques
that uses historical data to predict future behavior.
Question 17 __________ methods are the most common type of
forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning
process.
Question 18 __________ is a linear regression model relating
demand to time.
Question 19 rob 14, and 15)estion worth 2 points, 1 hour time
limit (chapters 1,ue units EXCEPT:The U.S. Department of
Agriculture estimates that the yearly yield of limes per acre is
distributed as follows:
The estimated average price per bushel is $16.80.
What is the expected yield of the crop?
Question 20 In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to
__________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

27. Question 21 __________ is absolute error as a percentage of
demand.
Question 22 Consider the following graph of sales. Which of
the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?
Question 23 Which of the following possible values of alpha
would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly
to sudden changes in forecast errors?
Question 24 Given the following data on the number of pints
of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time
frame: