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Red Bend Seminar:
Managing the Accelerating Amount
of Software in Cars
Roger C. Lanctot,
Associate Director
Global Automotive Practice

Strategy Analytics
September 2013
Where We Stand Today

Universal Connectivity
Vs.
Consumer Indifference
Hardware in Market
OEM Embedded Telematics
150,000
140,430
125,000

Units 000's

100,000

75,000

73,895

Hardware in Market

50,000
39,548
25,000

24,716

0
2011

2013

2015

2017
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
Active Subs
OEM Embedded Telematics
150,000
140,430
125,000

Units 000's

100,000

98,785

75,000

Hardware in Market

73,895

Active Subs
50,000

49,739
39,548

25,000

24,716

25,734

12,075

0
2011

2013

2015

2017
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
Inactive Subs
OEM Embedded Telematics
150,000
140,430
125,000

Units 000's

100,000

98,785

Hardware in Market

75,000

73,895

Active Subs
Inactive Subs

50,000

49,739
41,645

39,548
24,716

25,734

12,641
12,075

25,000

13,814

24,156

0
2011

2013

2015

2017
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
Inactive Subs = Dead $$$
OEM Embedded Telematics – Units/Revenues

40,000

Over $4 Billion wasted in 2017 alone
Over $12 Billion wasted 2011  2017

4,500,000

$4,026,727
4,000,000

Units (000's)

35,000

3,500,000

30,000

3,000,000

$2,530,689
25,000
20,000

2,500,000

$1,691,760

2,000,000

$1,618,224

15,000

1,500,000

10,000

1,000,000

5,000

Revenues (USD Mil)

45,000

500,000

0

0
2011

2013

2015

Revenues

2017

Units

Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
Customers Won’t Pay
Customers Don’t Use
Customers Don’t Care
Connected Car Going Nowhere
Big Picture
• Embedded telematics is not taking off
• Smartphone connections are failing, fragmenting
• Navigation/traffic has become a battleground – awareness
growing, solutions/service quality improving
• Loss of focus on core value propositions
• But there is light at the end of the tunnel:
– VRM-CRM
– Safety
Connectivity Status Report
1. Customers don’t want to pay for embedded
2. Not enough customers connecting their smartphones
3. Too many “platforms,” apps, and content chasing too few
connections
4. Need to drive daily relevant applications to drive adoption:
Traffic, weather, streaming content
5. OBJECTIVE: Standard embedded connectivity
6. TIMEFRAME: 4-5 years+
7. SHORT-TERM: Smart-phone connectivity focus
Where We Stand Today

How is this picture
changing.
Big Three
•
•
•
•

GM/OnStar – 100%!
Chrysler – will be ~ 10% for MY14 – FOTA via smartphone
Ford – EVs only for now – thumb drive updates - future?
Lincoln – Announced intention to embed
Japan
• Toyota – Not yet – FOTA via smartphone / Lexus ~ 100%
• Honda – Not yet / Acura -> 100%
• Nissan – Not yet / Infiniti -> 100%
• Others – still in planning
Germany
• BMW – 100%! – FOTA for CY2014?
• Audi - ~ 50% - “aftermarket” SIM
• Mercedes -> 100% - FOTA capable - “not replacing ECU software
yet”
• VW -> 100%
France, Italy, UK, Sweden
•
•
•
•
•

Fiat – not yet – thumb drive updates
Renault < 20%
PSA < 20%
Volvo -> 100% outside the U.S. – limited updates
Jaguar – not yet
Korea
• Kia – not yet
• Hyundai -> 100%
Common Thread
• Japanese mass brands – value-oriented customer, highly reliable
cars, low cost of ownership – difficult to justify embedded
modem
• German luxury brands – BMW has made 100% fitment table
stakes
• VW, Hyundai, Kia – similar value prop and challenge as Japanese
• Domestics – GM’s planned shift to LTE will change the game –
true FOTA coming (ie. ECU updatability) – Chysler and Ford
following slowly
Smartphone Connectivity

+

=

Customer Acquisition
Embedded Modem

+

=

Customer Retention
Why connect all cars?

Revenue
Metrics – Can’t monetize or manage what you
can’t measure
Retention – What happened to our customers?
Competitive threats – insurance
companies, independent dealers
Preserve the value of the fleet – lease
customers, etc.
Why connect all cars?

Crowdsourcing – traffic, weather, safety, maps
Community building – ownership experience
Firmware updates – which version? Universal
deployment
Service – Dealer metrics for scheduled, ad hoc
Real-time customer connection
Customer identification management
Customer portal
Vehicle life-cycle management
Why FOTA?
• Hundreds of millions of lines of code
• Why identify problems (diagnostics/prognostics) if you
can’t/won’t fix them?
• Need to update mission-critical safety systems, powertrain etc.
• Aftersales added value – enhance/transform ownership
experience
• Reward consumer for being/staying connected
• Software recalls – cost avoidance
• Customer expectation/OEM obligation
• We didn’t do it because we couldn’t – onset of LTE means “no
excuses”
Sirius XM Concept

Sirius XM is proposing a
combination LTE/Satellite
module as part of its plan to
transition into telematics.
Expected plan is to shift
content distribution to XM
while Sirius satellites are used
for video and/or software updating. This concept
has been greeted with skepticism by OEMs.
Biggest FOTA Challenges
• Role of the dealer – lost sales/service revenue, out of the loop
• Consumer awareness/understanding/acceptance – customer
MUST be notified – customer MUST accept
• Frequency – ad hoc, monthly, quarterly
• Threshold for update – safety, security, size, timing, functionality

Big Customer Relationship Win + Potential Dealer Alienation
Goal: Make it Win-Win for all
Current Dealer Landscape
• Hostile to FOTA
• Misinformation/confusion regarding updates due to changes
from hardwire to wireless updating at the dealer
• Lack of dealer-integrated management system for tracking
versions etc.
• Software updates = customer visit = opportunity!
• Software updates as a customer value proposition – a means to
exclude aftermarket – updates disable “mods”

• Updating ECUs is an important new phase!
Telematics ECU:
OEM Global Shipments - Units and Revenues
4,000

40,000

3,500

Units (000's)

35,000

3,000

30,000

2,500

25,000
2,000
20,000
1,500

15,000

1,000

10,000

500

5,000
0

0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Units

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Revenues

• Telematics ECU Opportunity: 2012 vs. 2020
–
–
–
–

Revenues (US $ Mil)

45,000



ECU Shipments: +500% : 7.0 Million units in 2012  42 Million units in 2020
ECU Revenues: +320% : $910 Million in 2012  $3.8 Billion in 2020
Average Selling Price 2012: $130/unit  2020: $92/unit
The high volume Mass-Market Product in 2020 will have limited features
• E.g. eCall and support for Location Based Services/B2B communications:
• Typical mass market product will have 3G Cell Modem + GPS/location capability
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
OEM Telematics ECU
Cellular Modem Choice - Global
45,000
40,000

Units (000's)

35,000

4G

30,000

3G

25,000

2 .5 G

20,000

2G

1
5,000
1
0,000
5,000
0
2 0 10 2 0 11 2 0 12 2 0 13 2 0 14 2 0 15 2 0 16 2 0 17 2 0 18 2 0 19 2 0 2 0

• Telematics ECU Modem forecast 2012 vs. 2020 (7.0 Mil. units  $42 Mil. units)
–
–
–
–

2G Wireless Network: 21K units in ‘12 to Zero units in ‘20 Units
2.5G Wireless Network: 6.3 Mil units to 0K units
3G Wireless Network: 670K units to 26.6 Mil units
4G Wireless Network: 55K units to 15.6 Mil units






Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
Connectivity ECU - OEM:
Units and Revenues
40,000

2,500

2,000

Units (000's)

30,000
25,000

1,500

20,000
1,000

15,000
10,000

500

Revenues (US $ Mil)

35,000

5,000
0

0
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Units

•

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Revenues

Connectivity ECU Opportunity: 2012 vs. 2020

– ECU Shipments: +360% (7.2 Mil units in 2012  33.7 Mil units in 2020)
– ECU Revenues: +220% ($725 Million in 2012  $2.3 Billion in 2020)
– Average Selling Price 2012: $100/unit  2020: $69
– Examples include: SYNC, Entune, Blue&Me, Kia UVO, Mini Connected etc.
Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
World ECU $ Per Vehicle
Polk: Average Age of Vehicles Hits Record High
Dealer share of collision business in decline
Tesla: Industry Disruption
Tesla – Industry Disruption
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Field upgradable telecom module
Field upgradable graphics
Company-owned stores
Streaming content via embedded modem
Limited HMI overhead + touch-centric vs. voice-centric
Firmware over the air updates
Top safety rating
Top score in Consumer Reports
Top Strategy Analytics customer clinic evaluation
Non-traditional sourcing and development
Googlemap! (VIDEO #1)
Tesla Update Process
•
•
•
•
•

Notification message in car “Tesla has an update”
“Press here to download”
Timing of download and time required for download provided
Approve or change timing
Post update: Message detailing contents of update

• Biggest update thus far: addition of “creep” – addition of voice to
make phone calls
Tesla Software Update Report
Google Disruption
Google – Industry Disruption
• Self-contained – no connection necessary
• Uses its own map
• Multiple consumer, commercial applications

• Quanergy: targeting replacing $70K Lidar unit with $500 unit with
rotating element -> $200 solid state device
Elements Enabled by LTE
•
•
•
•
•
•

Personalized, contextualized content engine (audio & video)
Live map – hybrid on/off-board – map updating
Ad hoc/mesh networked connectivity – Wi-Fi, cellular, other
Secure gateway (Cisco)
Alert-driven/workload managed interface – traffic, weather, etc.
Communication efficiency optimized – on/off-board data
management/processing “delta-focused”
• Voice (Nuance), Metadata (Gracenote)
• Preferences/policy-managed – data, app use, privacy
Four Core Value Propositions for Connectivity
1.
2.
3.
4.

Navigation/traffic/location – contextual awareness
VRM/CRM
Streaming content
Connected safety – anticipating/avoiding crashes

OBJECTIVE: Telematics 2.0 = collision avoidance + delivering
critical, real-time information safely to the driver before/as it is
needed
Telematics 1.0 -> Telematics 2.0
Telematics 1.0
Automatic Crash Notification +
Stolen Vehicle Recovery + Remote
Diagnostics
=
Good Enough Telematics

44
Telematics 1.0 - Shortcomings
Reactive
Limited dealer engagement
Limited use of vehicle data
Limited consumer access to data
Limited dealer access to data

45
Telematics 2.0
Firmware over the air updates
Prognostics
VRM
IP-based traffic data, hybrid speech
recognition
Streaming content
46
FOTA as a core connected car value proposition
•
•
•
•

Necessary for mission-critical, safety updates
Strengthening bonds to the customer AND the car
Adding value after the sale
Avoiding costly recalls and, in some cases, inconvenient dealer
visits
• Enhancing the customer experience
• Maintaining vehicle software integrity
Thank you!
Roger C. Lanctot
Associate Director
Global Automotive Practice
Strategy Analytics
rlanctot@strategyanalytics.com
+1 (617) 614-0714
Twitter: @rogermud

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Roger Lanctot, Strategy Analytics, Managing the Accelerating Amount of Software in Cars

  • 1. Red Bend Seminar: Managing the Accelerating Amount of Software in Cars Roger C. Lanctot, Associate Director Global Automotive Practice Strategy Analytics September 2013
  • 2.
  • 3. Where We Stand Today Universal Connectivity Vs. Consumer Indifference
  • 4. Hardware in Market OEM Embedded Telematics 150,000 140,430 125,000 Units 000's 100,000 75,000 73,895 Hardware in Market 50,000 39,548 25,000 24,716 0 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
  • 5. Active Subs OEM Embedded Telematics 150,000 140,430 125,000 Units 000's 100,000 98,785 75,000 Hardware in Market 73,895 Active Subs 50,000 49,739 39,548 25,000 24,716 25,734 12,075 0 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
  • 6. Inactive Subs OEM Embedded Telematics 150,000 140,430 125,000 Units 000's 100,000 98,785 Hardware in Market 75,000 73,895 Active Subs Inactive Subs 50,000 49,739 41,645 39,548 24,716 25,734 12,641 12,075 25,000 13,814 24,156 0 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
  • 7. Inactive Subs = Dead $$$ OEM Embedded Telematics – Units/Revenues 40,000 Over $4 Billion wasted in 2017 alone Over $12 Billion wasted 2011  2017 4,500,000 $4,026,727 4,000,000 Units (000's) 35,000 3,500,000 30,000 3,000,000 $2,530,689 25,000 20,000 2,500,000 $1,691,760 2,000,000 $1,618,224 15,000 1,500,000 10,000 1,000,000 5,000 Revenues (USD Mil) 45,000 500,000 0 0 2011 2013 2015 Revenues 2017 Units Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
  • 12. Big Picture • Embedded telematics is not taking off • Smartphone connections are failing, fragmenting • Navigation/traffic has become a battleground – awareness growing, solutions/service quality improving • Loss of focus on core value propositions • But there is light at the end of the tunnel: – VRM-CRM – Safety
  • 13. Connectivity Status Report 1. Customers don’t want to pay for embedded 2. Not enough customers connecting their smartphones 3. Too many “platforms,” apps, and content chasing too few connections 4. Need to drive daily relevant applications to drive adoption: Traffic, weather, streaming content 5. OBJECTIVE: Standard embedded connectivity 6. TIMEFRAME: 4-5 years+ 7. SHORT-TERM: Smart-phone connectivity focus
  • 14. Where We Stand Today How is this picture changing.
  • 15. Big Three • • • • GM/OnStar – 100%! Chrysler – will be ~ 10% for MY14 – FOTA via smartphone Ford – EVs only for now – thumb drive updates - future? Lincoln – Announced intention to embed
  • 16. Japan • Toyota – Not yet – FOTA via smartphone / Lexus ~ 100% • Honda – Not yet / Acura -> 100% • Nissan – Not yet / Infiniti -> 100% • Others – still in planning
  • 17. Germany • BMW – 100%! – FOTA for CY2014? • Audi - ~ 50% - “aftermarket” SIM • Mercedes -> 100% - FOTA capable - “not replacing ECU software yet” • VW -> 100%
  • 18. France, Italy, UK, Sweden • • • • • Fiat – not yet – thumb drive updates Renault < 20% PSA < 20% Volvo -> 100% outside the U.S. – limited updates Jaguar – not yet
  • 19. Korea • Kia – not yet • Hyundai -> 100%
  • 20. Common Thread • Japanese mass brands – value-oriented customer, highly reliable cars, low cost of ownership – difficult to justify embedded modem • German luxury brands – BMW has made 100% fitment table stakes • VW, Hyundai, Kia – similar value prop and challenge as Japanese • Domestics – GM’s planned shift to LTE will change the game – true FOTA coming (ie. ECU updatability) – Chysler and Ford following slowly
  • 23. Why connect all cars? Revenue Metrics – Can’t monetize or manage what you can’t measure Retention – What happened to our customers? Competitive threats – insurance companies, independent dealers Preserve the value of the fleet – lease customers, etc.
  • 24. Why connect all cars? Crowdsourcing – traffic, weather, safety, maps Community building – ownership experience Firmware updates – which version? Universal deployment Service – Dealer metrics for scheduled, ad hoc Real-time customer connection Customer identification management Customer portal Vehicle life-cycle management
  • 25. Why FOTA? • Hundreds of millions of lines of code • Why identify problems (diagnostics/prognostics) if you can’t/won’t fix them? • Need to update mission-critical safety systems, powertrain etc. • Aftersales added value – enhance/transform ownership experience • Reward consumer for being/staying connected • Software recalls – cost avoidance • Customer expectation/OEM obligation • We didn’t do it because we couldn’t – onset of LTE means “no excuses”
  • 26. Sirius XM Concept Sirius XM is proposing a combination LTE/Satellite module as part of its plan to transition into telematics. Expected plan is to shift content distribution to XM while Sirius satellites are used for video and/or software updating. This concept has been greeted with skepticism by OEMs.
  • 27. Biggest FOTA Challenges • Role of the dealer – lost sales/service revenue, out of the loop • Consumer awareness/understanding/acceptance – customer MUST be notified – customer MUST accept • Frequency – ad hoc, monthly, quarterly • Threshold for update – safety, security, size, timing, functionality Big Customer Relationship Win + Potential Dealer Alienation Goal: Make it Win-Win for all
  • 28. Current Dealer Landscape • Hostile to FOTA • Misinformation/confusion regarding updates due to changes from hardwire to wireless updating at the dealer • Lack of dealer-integrated management system for tracking versions etc. • Software updates = customer visit = opportunity! • Software updates as a customer value proposition – a means to exclude aftermarket – updates disable “mods” • Updating ECUs is an important new phase!
  • 29. Telematics ECU: OEM Global Shipments - Units and Revenues 4,000 40,000 3,500 Units (000's) 35,000 3,000 30,000 2,500 25,000 2,000 20,000 1,500 15,000 1,000 10,000 500 5,000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Units 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Revenues • Telematics ECU Opportunity: 2012 vs. 2020 – – – – Revenues (US $ Mil) 45,000  ECU Shipments: +500% : 7.0 Million units in 2012  42 Million units in 2020 ECU Revenues: +320% : $910 Million in 2012  $3.8 Billion in 2020 Average Selling Price 2012: $130/unit  2020: $92/unit The high volume Mass-Market Product in 2020 will have limited features • E.g. eCall and support for Location Based Services/B2B communications: • Typical mass market product will have 3G Cell Modem + GPS/location capability Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
  • 30. OEM Telematics ECU Cellular Modem Choice - Global 45,000 40,000 Units (000's) 35,000 4G 30,000 3G 25,000 2 .5 G 20,000 2G 1 5,000 1 0,000 5,000 0 2 0 10 2 0 11 2 0 12 2 0 13 2 0 14 2 0 15 2 0 16 2 0 17 2 0 18 2 0 19 2 0 2 0 • Telematics ECU Modem forecast 2012 vs. 2020 (7.0 Mil. units  $42 Mil. units) – – – – 2G Wireless Network: 21K units in ‘12 to Zero units in ‘20 Units 2.5G Wireless Network: 6.3 Mil units to 0K units 3G Wireless Network: 670K units to 26.6 Mil units 4G Wireless Network: 55K units to 15.6 Mil units     Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
  • 31. Connectivity ECU - OEM: Units and Revenues 40,000 2,500 2,000 Units (000's) 30,000 25,000 1,500 20,000 1,000 15,000 10,000 500 Revenues (US $ Mil) 35,000 5,000 0 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Units • 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Revenues Connectivity ECU Opportunity: 2012 vs. 2020  – ECU Shipments: +360% (7.2 Mil units in 2012  33.7 Mil units in 2020) – ECU Revenues: +220% ($725 Million in 2012  $2.3 Billion in 2020) – Average Selling Price 2012: $100/unit  2020: $69 – Examples include: SYNC, Entune, Blue&Me, Kia UVO, Mini Connected etc. Source: Automotive Multimedia & Communications - AMCS
  • 32. World ECU $ Per Vehicle
  • 33. Polk: Average Age of Vehicles Hits Record High
  • 34. Dealer share of collision business in decline
  • 36. Tesla – Industry Disruption • • • • • • • • • • • Field upgradable telecom module Field upgradable graphics Company-owned stores Streaming content via embedded modem Limited HMI overhead + touch-centric vs. voice-centric Firmware over the air updates Top safety rating Top score in Consumer Reports Top Strategy Analytics customer clinic evaluation Non-traditional sourcing and development Googlemap! (VIDEO #1)
  • 37. Tesla Update Process • • • • • Notification message in car “Tesla has an update” “Press here to download” Timing of download and time required for download provided Approve or change timing Post update: Message detailing contents of update • Biggest update thus far: addition of “creep” – addition of voice to make phone calls
  • 40. Google – Industry Disruption • Self-contained – no connection necessary • Uses its own map • Multiple consumer, commercial applications • Quanergy: targeting replacing $70K Lidar unit with $500 unit with rotating element -> $200 solid state device
  • 41. Elements Enabled by LTE • • • • • • Personalized, contextualized content engine (audio & video) Live map – hybrid on/off-board – map updating Ad hoc/mesh networked connectivity – Wi-Fi, cellular, other Secure gateway (Cisco) Alert-driven/workload managed interface – traffic, weather, etc. Communication efficiency optimized – on/off-board data management/processing “delta-focused” • Voice (Nuance), Metadata (Gracenote) • Preferences/policy-managed – data, app use, privacy
  • 42. Four Core Value Propositions for Connectivity 1. 2. 3. 4. Navigation/traffic/location – contextual awareness VRM/CRM Streaming content Connected safety – anticipating/avoiding crashes OBJECTIVE: Telematics 2.0 = collision avoidance + delivering critical, real-time information safely to the driver before/as it is needed
  • 43. Telematics 1.0 -> Telematics 2.0
  • 44. Telematics 1.0 Automatic Crash Notification + Stolen Vehicle Recovery + Remote Diagnostics = Good Enough Telematics 44
  • 45. Telematics 1.0 - Shortcomings Reactive Limited dealer engagement Limited use of vehicle data Limited consumer access to data Limited dealer access to data 45
  • 46. Telematics 2.0 Firmware over the air updates Prognostics VRM IP-based traffic data, hybrid speech recognition Streaming content 46
  • 47. FOTA as a core connected car value proposition • • • • Necessary for mission-critical, safety updates Strengthening bonds to the customer AND the car Adding value after the sale Avoiding costly recalls and, in some cases, inconvenient dealer visits • Enhancing the customer experience • Maintaining vehicle software integrity
  • 48. Thank you! Roger C. Lanctot Associate Director Global Automotive Practice Strategy Analytics rlanctot@strategyanalytics.com +1 (617) 614-0714 Twitter: @rogermud