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Small Investments; Big Returns
3 Data Science Use Cases
2
Data Scientist
sshenoy@sensecorp.com
Shreya Shenoy
www.sensecorp.com/contact
@SenseCorp
facebook.com/SenseCorpSC/
linkedin.com/company/sense-corp
Data Scientist
sdevitt@sensecorp.com
Susan Devitt
3
80% of analytics insights will
not deliver business outcomes
through 2022 and 80% of AI
projects will “remain alchemy,
run by wizards” through 2020
(Gartner 2019)
PROJECT DO’S AND DONT’S
Begin early, be agile, and start small
Timelines that deliver on weekly scales
Aim for “good enough’ & adding business value
4-6 person teams
Hyper-focused on the business problem
Co-developing with SMEs and stakeholders
Focus on fast mover strategyFocus on first mover strategy
Designing the ‘supreme’ solution
Timelines that deliver on monthly scales
Aim for perfect accuracy
Large, slow-moving teams
Hyper-focused on the solution
Developing in silos
Deliver Big Returns on your AI investment
5
START SIMPLE PRIORITIZE GENERATE VALUE
Inventory categorization1.
Small investment; Big returns
Sales forecasting; anomaly detection2.
Computer vision public safety3.
Inventory Categorization
2 weeks to delivery; 1 FTE
Inventory Categorization
8
PROCESS
Item Description Item Category
CHALLENGES
Manual Labor
• Speed
• Accuracy
• Niche Expertise
• Tedious
Dataset Size
• ~266k+ items
• 155 categories
• Continuously growing
APPLICATIONS
Cost Analysis
and Reporting
Predictive Maintenance
and Equipment Failure
Parts Optimization
and Savings
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
25 45 65 85 105 125 145
ModelAccuracy
Number of Most Frequent Labels
Decision Tree
Naïve Bayes, Count Vectors
Naïve Bayes, Wordlevel TFIDF
Logistic Regression (softmax),
Count Vectors
Logistic Regression (softmax),
Wordlevel TFIDF
Random Forest, Count Vectors
Random Forest, Wordlevel TFIDF
XG Boost, Count Vectors
XG Boost, Wordlevel TFIDF
7/9 show extremely high accuracy (>90%) for
frequently occurring categories
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Number of Most Frequent Labels
Minimum Label
Frequency
Percentage of Total
Data (%)
Best Model Accuracy
(%)
Worst Model
Accuracy (%)
Total Data Accuracy
(%)
Modeling Results
Takeaways:
• 98% of the data can be classified with over 90% accuracy
• More labels => more learning => better accuracy
REDUCE COST:
98% of the data can be classified with over 90% accuracy1.
Use Case: Inventory Categorization
90% LESS TIME:
2-week process now takes <1 day2.
INCREASE DATA ACCURACY:
Accurate data now available for downstream applications in
automation, optimization, smart assistant etc.
3.
Forecasting and Market Segmentation
2-week Proof of Concept; 1 FTE
Daily Sales (450+ stores, 27 months, 7 million transactions)
Weekly Sales (450+ stores, 27 months, 7 million transactions)
Time Series Analysis
15
Exploratory Insights
• Time series decomposition for trend,
seasonality and anomaly detection for
each segment
Optimization &
Forecasting
Clustering & Market
Correlation
Objective Objective
• Apply machine learning techniques and
simulations to quantify uncertainty
• Apply mathematical models to
understand lag, growth rate and
trajectory during rebound & recovery
• Group stores/products based on
historical daily invoices to identify non-
obvious groupings
• Evaluate micro and macro economic
leading indicators to improve
predictions
Objective
What INSIGHTS can we derive
from our DATA ASSETS?
Identify non-obvious TRENDS
and ANOMALIES.
Which markets have
SIMILAR BEHAVIORS, and
why? Which markets may
IMPACT others?
How do we identify and
REDUCE UNCERTAINTY of
anomalous events? How do
we OPTIMIZE the climb back
to normalcy?
Time Series Decomposition to Isolate Key Events
Major Hurricane
Total Sales and Hurricane Rebound
1500000
1700000
1900000
2100000
2300000
2500000
9/22/17 12/31/17 4/10/18 7/19/18 10/27/18 2/4/19 5/15/19 8/23/19 12/1/19 3/10/20 6/18/20
EmeraldCoast - Total Sales Rebound Forecast
Hurricane
Multiscale Correlation for FORECASTING
18
1. Macro/regional 2. Micro/Local
30-year fixed mortgage average in US.
Source: Freddie Mac
Cross Correlation – 0.6226
(optimal at 50-week lag)
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price
Source: US EIA
WTI Corr – 0.76
(no lag)
30-yr corr – 0.42
(max)
Nonobvious trends can be deconstructed and
RECONSTRUCTED1.
Use Case: Anomaly Detection and Forecasting
Anomalous events can be grouped to build forecasts that
REDUCE UNCERTAINTY2.
Time lags and micro/macro drivers improve accuracy of
forecasting
3.
Computer Vision for Public Safety
4 weeks; 1.5 FTE
Convolutional Neural Nets OpenCV, Tesseract Google Cloud, AWS, Azure
MED MED LOW
HIGH MED LOW
LOW MED HIGH
HIGH MED LOW
Computer Vision Options
Greater Complexity Less Complexity
Build from
Scratch
Open-Source
Library
Off the
Shelf API
Solutions
LOE and Time to
Implement
Data Size
Requirements
Long Term
Costs
Control Over
Accuracy
Public Safety: Security Camera to Detect Armed Individual
Computer Vision: Detecting Firearms
Successful Example
24
Person 1:
Asphalt
Person 2:
Gun Shooting range
Shooting sport
Shooting Recreation
Sport venue Air gun
Trigger Trap shooting
Person 3 skipped
Person 4 skipped
Person 5 skipped
Overall Performance
25
• End-to-end speed of 3-4 seconds from acquiring image to sending
notification of detected firearm
• 88% accuracy at detecting firearms with current algorithm
• Room for improvement in next steps
Time and resource savings with initial implementation
1.
Use Case: Computer Vision for Public Safety
Can be easily adapted for various specific use cases; all
collected data can further customization2.
Can deliver business value quickly with a focused problem3.
Inventory Categorization
98% accuracy; 90% reduction in effort
1.
Small investment; Big returns
Sales forecasting; anomaly detection
Macro/micro drivers of sales; quantify uncertainty
2.
Computer vision public safety
88% accuracy; end-to-end runtime of 3-4 seconds
3.
28
Small investment; Big returns - Takeaway
29
START SIMPLE PRIORITIZE GENERATE VALUE
Use what you have;
no new data
High feasibility;
high return
Build momentum
with early success
Thanks For Joining Us
We hope you enjoyed the presentation.
If you’d like to learn more about how to stand up your
AI organization, download our eBook.
https://sensecorp.com/artificial-intelligence-ebook/
DOWNLOAD EBOOK
www.sensecorp.com | marketing@sensecorp.com
Thank you!

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Small Investments, Big Returns: Three Successful Data Science Use Cases

  • 1. Small Investments; Big Returns 3 Data Science Use Cases
  • 3. 3 80% of analytics insights will not deliver business outcomes through 2022 and 80% of AI projects will “remain alchemy, run by wizards” through 2020 (Gartner 2019)
  • 4. PROJECT DO’S AND DONT’S Begin early, be agile, and start small Timelines that deliver on weekly scales Aim for “good enough’ & adding business value 4-6 person teams Hyper-focused on the business problem Co-developing with SMEs and stakeholders Focus on fast mover strategyFocus on first mover strategy Designing the ‘supreme’ solution Timelines that deliver on monthly scales Aim for perfect accuracy Large, slow-moving teams Hyper-focused on the solution Developing in silos
  • 5. Deliver Big Returns on your AI investment 5 START SIMPLE PRIORITIZE GENERATE VALUE
  • 6. Inventory categorization1. Small investment; Big returns Sales forecasting; anomaly detection2. Computer vision public safety3.
  • 7. Inventory Categorization 2 weeks to delivery; 1 FTE
  • 8. Inventory Categorization 8 PROCESS Item Description Item Category CHALLENGES Manual Labor • Speed • Accuracy • Niche Expertise • Tedious Dataset Size • ~266k+ items • 155 categories • Continuously growing APPLICATIONS Cost Analysis and Reporting Predictive Maintenance and Equipment Failure Parts Optimization and Savings
  • 9. 9 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 25 45 65 85 105 125 145 ModelAccuracy Number of Most Frequent Labels Decision Tree Naïve Bayes, Count Vectors Naïve Bayes, Wordlevel TFIDF Logistic Regression (softmax), Count Vectors Logistic Regression (softmax), Wordlevel TFIDF Random Forest, Count Vectors Random Forest, Wordlevel TFIDF XG Boost, Count Vectors XG Boost, Wordlevel TFIDF 7/9 show extremely high accuracy (>90%) for frequently occurring categories
  • 10. 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Number of Most Frequent Labels Minimum Label Frequency Percentage of Total Data (%) Best Model Accuracy (%) Worst Model Accuracy (%) Total Data Accuracy (%) Modeling Results Takeaways: • 98% of the data can be classified with over 90% accuracy • More labels => more learning => better accuracy
  • 11. REDUCE COST: 98% of the data can be classified with over 90% accuracy1. Use Case: Inventory Categorization 90% LESS TIME: 2-week process now takes <1 day2. INCREASE DATA ACCURACY: Accurate data now available for downstream applications in automation, optimization, smart assistant etc. 3.
  • 12. Forecasting and Market Segmentation 2-week Proof of Concept; 1 FTE
  • 13. Daily Sales (450+ stores, 27 months, 7 million transactions)
  • 14. Weekly Sales (450+ stores, 27 months, 7 million transactions)
  • 15. Time Series Analysis 15 Exploratory Insights • Time series decomposition for trend, seasonality and anomaly detection for each segment Optimization & Forecasting Clustering & Market Correlation Objective Objective • Apply machine learning techniques and simulations to quantify uncertainty • Apply mathematical models to understand lag, growth rate and trajectory during rebound & recovery • Group stores/products based on historical daily invoices to identify non- obvious groupings • Evaluate micro and macro economic leading indicators to improve predictions Objective What INSIGHTS can we derive from our DATA ASSETS? Identify non-obvious TRENDS and ANOMALIES. Which markets have SIMILAR BEHAVIORS, and why? Which markets may IMPACT others? How do we identify and REDUCE UNCERTAINTY of anomalous events? How do we OPTIMIZE the climb back to normalcy?
  • 16. Time Series Decomposition to Isolate Key Events Major Hurricane
  • 17. Total Sales and Hurricane Rebound 1500000 1700000 1900000 2100000 2300000 2500000 9/22/17 12/31/17 4/10/18 7/19/18 10/27/18 2/4/19 5/15/19 8/23/19 12/1/19 3/10/20 6/18/20 EmeraldCoast - Total Sales Rebound Forecast Hurricane
  • 18. Multiscale Correlation for FORECASTING 18 1. Macro/regional 2. Micro/Local 30-year fixed mortgage average in US. Source: Freddie Mac Cross Correlation – 0.6226 (optimal at 50-week lag) West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot price Source: US EIA WTI Corr – 0.76 (no lag) 30-yr corr – 0.42 (max)
  • 19. Nonobvious trends can be deconstructed and RECONSTRUCTED1. Use Case: Anomaly Detection and Forecasting Anomalous events can be grouped to build forecasts that REDUCE UNCERTAINTY2. Time lags and micro/macro drivers improve accuracy of forecasting 3.
  • 20. Computer Vision for Public Safety 4 weeks; 1.5 FTE
  • 21. Convolutional Neural Nets OpenCV, Tesseract Google Cloud, AWS, Azure MED MED LOW HIGH MED LOW LOW MED HIGH HIGH MED LOW Computer Vision Options Greater Complexity Less Complexity Build from Scratch Open-Source Library Off the Shelf API Solutions LOE and Time to Implement Data Size Requirements Long Term Costs Control Over Accuracy
  • 22. Public Safety: Security Camera to Detect Armed Individual
  • 24. Successful Example 24 Person 1: Asphalt Person 2: Gun Shooting range Shooting sport Shooting Recreation Sport venue Air gun Trigger Trap shooting Person 3 skipped Person 4 skipped Person 5 skipped
  • 25. Overall Performance 25 • End-to-end speed of 3-4 seconds from acquiring image to sending notification of detected firearm • 88% accuracy at detecting firearms with current algorithm • Room for improvement in next steps
  • 26. Time and resource savings with initial implementation 1. Use Case: Computer Vision for Public Safety Can be easily adapted for various specific use cases; all collected data can further customization2. Can deliver business value quickly with a focused problem3.
  • 27. Inventory Categorization 98% accuracy; 90% reduction in effort 1. Small investment; Big returns Sales forecasting; anomaly detection Macro/micro drivers of sales; quantify uncertainty 2. Computer vision public safety 88% accuracy; end-to-end runtime of 3-4 seconds 3.
  • 28. 28
  • 29. Small investment; Big returns - Takeaway 29 START SIMPLE PRIORITIZE GENERATE VALUE Use what you have; no new data High feasibility; high return Build momentum with early success
  • 30. Thanks For Joining Us We hope you enjoyed the presentation. If you’d like to learn more about how to stand up your AI organization, download our eBook. https://sensecorp.com/artificial-intelligence-ebook/ DOWNLOAD EBOOK www.sensecorp.com | marketing@sensecorp.com

Editor's Notes

  1. Don’t elaborate. Reference our E-book, interop presentation some overlap..another one coming up subscribe… dive deep into a couple of use cases and why they are successful and how AI applies.
  2. Early wins need to be double wins, build momentum with early success
  3. Use Case and Value Add - Greg and Jackson (“Takes forever”. “Used to see spend, analyze failures, cost saving and analysis, predictive analysis on part analysis”)
  4. Exploratory analysis and 3 use cases, here is the one to cover today. Data and possibility Clustering – mention that it possible to let the data tell us, but we can look at do yards cluster together and retail together etc. For anomaly detection, can look at specific legislation – zoning changes, environmental regulation and how that affects sales
  5. Early wins need to be double wins, build momentum with early success
  6. Supply Chain Inventory monitoring/management Transportation Driving analysis Healthcare Screenings/medical imaging