Evaluating Product
Shamik Sharma
Intro
USA (1997-2012)
Academic - Maryland CS, HP-Labs (dist. systems) - 20+ papers, 7 patents
Entrepreneur - Confluent (security co, sold to Oracle)
B2C Internet - Yahoo (marketplaces), RockYou (social games)
Consumer H/W - Lytro camera. (light-field deep-tech).
India (2012-2020)
Myntra - CTO/CPO
Angel - 12 investments ($10-25k) - 4 dead, 1 acq, 4 are ok, 2 are good, 1 over 10x
Venture Studio - 8 projects ($50-200k) for 5-15% => 5 dead, 3 alive
CureFit - Strategic initiatives
M.O.
1. Do Interrupt - pause after every 2-3 slides.
2. Chase the dependencies. Truth is complex.
3. Side-stories are good. “Know the truth, but tell the story”.
4. Shed all dogma !
How to be in Doubt + act with conviction
Evaluation Framework
team, market, product, capital, timing,..
Evaluation Framework
$$
The problem
● Long feedback cycles (Long vs short truths)
● Spiky inputs & spiky outcomes
● Hard yes vs Soft no decisions.
Internal conflict
Believer Skeptic
Judgement
- Look for Spikes
- Intuition (gut call)
What investors can control
Deal-Flow Process Post-Investment
Pre-Diligence
- Market analysis
- Product thesis
- Founder criteria
Diligence speed & quality
- Founder-market
- Product-Market
- Distribution
- Monetization
Capital
Co-investors
Founder networks
Employees
Experts
Is it a spike ? Can I help ?Input quality ?
Product evaluation
Just one aspect.
Looking for spikes
Evaluate
- Market
- Product
- GTM (Channel)
- Biz model
As a series of “Fits”
Balfour Framework
https://brianbalfour.com/essays/product-market-fit-isnt-enough
Product-1MarketFounder
Distribution
Channel
Biz
Model
Do customers
Love the product ?
Is there a
way to reach
many such
customers ?
Arpu - Cac - Opex = CM > 0 ?Rpu x #Cust x Pen% > $100M ?
Is it self-
sustainable ?
Can it reach
meaningful
scale ?
Is there a real problem ?
Why this team ?
Thesis : Everyone enjoys living in a beautiful space
Reimagine your room
Enjoy your space
- Spacejoy
Founder Market Product Channel Model
Interior Design
Tech Skills
US B2C Sales
Content
SEO
SEM
WoM
PR / Mags
E-comm Furniture
Lead-gen
Design Fees
B2B Tech fees
US Home
Renovation
US Renters
US New Home
Buyers
India New
Apt Buyers
B2B2C
Design Tech
Design Service
Full-service
Interiors
Product-1
Product-1
Stages x Cycles x Teams
https://brianbalfour.com/essays/product-market-fit-isnt-enough
Product-1MarketFounder
Distribution
Channel
Biz
Model
SeedIncubator,
Labs
Series A
Series B
Series C
Late
Stage
Founder - Market Fit
Market understanding
- Value-chain (channels)
- P&L (key line items)
- Customer satisfaction / probs
- Competition - gaps
- -------
- Trends
- Thought leaders
Founders to look for
- Market understanding
- Customer understanding
- Can “find” the product
- Can build it
- ------
- Can tell the story
- Can scale
Is there a real problem ? Why this team ?
Product - Market Fit
How to judge
- Engagement
- Retention
- Satisfaction (ratings, nps)
- -------
- Anecdotes
- Willingness to pay
What you might evaluate wrong
- Averages hide pockets.
- Need a complete product
- Some products need time
- ------
- Intensity of engage. like << love.
- Herd effect - fad or a shift ?
Do (will) a set of customers love this product ?
Build a sub-product for market then find a sub-market for product
https://firstround.com/review/how-superhuman-built-an-engine-to-find-product-market-fit/
Market : Soft-goods
B2B
B2C
Brands
Corp gifts
A messy process
Product :
Buy & sell
fashion
online
Shoes
Founder behavior
Vs
Investor Interpretation
● Agile vs Focus
● Analytical vs Conviction
● Product vs Market
Personalized
Product - Channel Fit
Is there a cost-effective way for this product to reach many target customers ?
Product Design
- Key proposition for this channel
- How will I convey the proposition on this channel
- Drive trials
- Onboarding
- Virality
- Cost structure
- RPU + pricing
Products are designed for channels. Channels are not designed for products.
Product-Channel Fit
Awareness
Convey Proposition
Drive Trials
Product - Good sportswear, very affordable
Myntra banners
Look fit like Hrithik
Discounts
Channel
Product-Channel Fit
Awareness
Convey Proposition
Drive Trials
Product - Premium workout-wear, for Indian fits
Cure.fit app/centers
Workout Imagery
Bundled w/ membership
Channel
Channel - Model Fit
Model-Market Fit
$1
$10
$100
$1000
$10,000
$100,000
$1,000,000
1k 10k 100k 1M 10M 100M
#-customers
Self-serve
Full-Service
Price
Can there be so many customers ?
Will they pay so much ?
Evaluation Path
Market Understanding
- Theses
- Value unlock
Founder that
matches market’s
needs
Reasonable
product idea
Product idea
is suited for its
distribution Channels
Possible to
make CM+
Can reach
$100M+
scale

Session 8: Evaluating Products

  • 1.
  • 2.
    Intro USA (1997-2012) Academic -Maryland CS, HP-Labs (dist. systems) - 20+ papers, 7 patents Entrepreneur - Confluent (security co, sold to Oracle) B2C Internet - Yahoo (marketplaces), RockYou (social games) Consumer H/W - Lytro camera. (light-field deep-tech). India (2012-2020) Myntra - CTO/CPO Angel - 12 investments ($10-25k) - 4 dead, 1 acq, 4 are ok, 2 are good, 1 over 10x Venture Studio - 8 projects ($50-200k) for 5-15% => 5 dead, 3 alive CureFit - Strategic initiatives
  • 3.
    M.O. 1. Do Interrupt- pause after every 2-3 slides. 2. Chase the dependencies. Truth is complex. 3. Side-stories are good. “Know the truth, but tell the story”. 4. Shed all dogma ! How to be in Doubt + act with conviction
  • 4.
    Evaluation Framework team, market,product, capital, timing,.. Evaluation Framework $$ The problem ● Long feedback cycles (Long vs short truths) ● Spiky inputs & spiky outcomes ● Hard yes vs Soft no decisions.
  • 5.
    Internal conflict Believer Skeptic Judgement -Look for Spikes - Intuition (gut call)
  • 6.
    What investors cancontrol Deal-Flow Process Post-Investment Pre-Diligence - Market analysis - Product thesis - Founder criteria Diligence speed & quality - Founder-market - Product-Market - Distribution - Monetization Capital Co-investors Founder networks Employees Experts Is it a spike ? Can I help ?Input quality ?
  • 7.
    Product evaluation Just oneaspect. Looking for spikes Evaluate - Market - Product - GTM (Channel) - Biz model As a series of “Fits”
  • 8.
    Balfour Framework https://brianbalfour.com/essays/product-market-fit-isnt-enough Product-1MarketFounder Distribution Channel Biz Model Do customers Lovethe product ? Is there a way to reach many such customers ? Arpu - Cac - Opex = CM > 0 ?Rpu x #Cust x Pen% > $100M ? Is it self- sustainable ? Can it reach meaningful scale ? Is there a real problem ? Why this team ?
  • 9.
    Thesis : Everyoneenjoys living in a beautiful space Reimagine your room Enjoy your space - Spacejoy
  • 10.
    Founder Market ProductChannel Model Interior Design Tech Skills US B2C Sales Content SEO SEM WoM PR / Mags E-comm Furniture Lead-gen Design Fees B2B Tech fees US Home Renovation US Renters US New Home Buyers India New Apt Buyers B2B2C Design Tech Design Service Full-service Interiors
  • 11.
    Product-1 Product-1 Stages x Cyclesx Teams https://brianbalfour.com/essays/product-market-fit-isnt-enough Product-1MarketFounder Distribution Channel Biz Model SeedIncubator, Labs Series A Series B Series C Late Stage
  • 12.
    Founder - MarketFit Market understanding - Value-chain (channels) - P&L (key line items) - Customer satisfaction / probs - Competition - gaps - ------- - Trends - Thought leaders Founders to look for - Market understanding - Customer understanding - Can “find” the product - Can build it - ------ - Can tell the story - Can scale Is there a real problem ? Why this team ?
  • 13.
    Product - MarketFit How to judge - Engagement - Retention - Satisfaction (ratings, nps) - ------- - Anecdotes - Willingness to pay What you might evaluate wrong - Averages hide pockets. - Need a complete product - Some products need time - ------ - Intensity of engage. like << love. - Herd effect - fad or a shift ? Do (will) a set of customers love this product ? Build a sub-product for market then find a sub-market for product https://firstround.com/review/how-superhuman-built-an-engine-to-find-product-market-fit/
  • 14.
    Market : Soft-goods B2B B2C Brands Corpgifts A messy process Product : Buy & sell fashion online Shoes Founder behavior Vs Investor Interpretation ● Agile vs Focus ● Analytical vs Conviction ● Product vs Market Personalized
  • 15.
    Product - ChannelFit Is there a cost-effective way for this product to reach many target customers ? Product Design - Key proposition for this channel - How will I convey the proposition on this channel - Drive trials - Onboarding - Virality - Cost structure - RPU + pricing Products are designed for channels. Channels are not designed for products.
  • 16.
    Product-Channel Fit Awareness Convey Proposition DriveTrials Product - Good sportswear, very affordable Myntra banners Look fit like Hrithik Discounts Channel
  • 17.
    Product-Channel Fit Awareness Convey Proposition DriveTrials Product - Premium workout-wear, for Indian fits Cure.fit app/centers Workout Imagery Bundled w/ membership Channel
  • 18.
  • 19.
    Model-Market Fit $1 $10 $100 $1000 $10,000 $100,000 $1,000,000 1k 10k100k 1M 10M 100M #-customers Self-serve Full-Service Price Can there be so many customers ? Will they pay so much ?
  • 20.
    Evaluation Path Market Understanding -Theses - Value unlock Founder that matches market’s needs Reasonable product idea Product idea is suited for its distribution Channels Possible to make CM+ Can reach $100M+ scale