Descriptive Statistics
Policy Perceptions on Food Security:         Abuse of Averages    Source: Suryanarayana (2011) in India Development Report...
11th Five Year Plan on Food Security• Sustained solution to morbidity• All the more so,  Stagnant incomes of the poor  P...
11th Five Year Plan on Food SecurityTrend reduction in calorie intake – 8% in rural India - 3% in urban India between 198...
Incidence of Poverty (million): 1983-2004 300.00            251.96  250.00                                244.03          ...
Incidence of Calorie Deficiency (%)       Norms: 2400 Kcal (Rural); 2100 Kcal (Urban)                                     ...
11th Five Year Plan on Food SecurityConsequences - Nutritional outcome parameters like low birth weights of newborn babie...
Review• Estimates of consumption patterns  Averages at current prices conceal rather than   reveal dynamics of change.  ...
ReviewCereal share, of course, has declined though not to the extent as revealed by current price estimates.Per capita c...
Monthly Per-Capita Consumer Expenditure by the Poorest Decile Groups and                                                  ...
Per Capita Cereal Consumption: All India Rural                     18                         16                         1...
Cereal Consumption Composition                               of the Poorest Decile Group: All-India Rural                 ...
Cereal Consumption Composition of Total Population:                                           All-India Rural             ...
Consequences• Incidence of calorie deficiency increased by  conventional norms but not so by convergence  norms.          ...
What is the evidence bydisaggregate population groups?
Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups:All India Rural                 25                 20kg s per month        ...
Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups: All India Urban                14                12                10kgs p...
Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Groups: All India Rural                 4500                 4000                 3500...
Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Group: All India Urban                 4000                 3500                 3000k...
Incidence of Malnutrition: States                            Proportion (%) of Underweight Children: Major States         ...
Growth RateA Story of Computations
Assess Growth performance pre- and post-reformSource: Government of India (2003): Economic Survey2002-2003, p. S – 4.     ...
Sectorwise GDP: Maharashtra (at 1999-2000 prices)SECTORS         1999-2000   2000-2001   2001-2002 2002-2003* 2003-04*    ...
Annual Growth rates                    2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005-06 2006- 2007- 2008-                    2001    ...
Regression based Trend growth ratesSECTORS                           Trend growth1.1 Agriculture                          ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Topic 9 fsp descriptive statistics

1,205 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, News & Politics
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,205
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
10
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
3
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Topic 9 fsp descriptive statistics

  1. 1. Descriptive Statistics
  2. 2. Policy Perceptions on Food Security: Abuse of Averages Source: Suryanarayana (2011) in India Development Report 2011
  3. 3. 11th Five Year Plan on Food Security• Sustained solution to morbidity• All the more so, Stagnant incomes of the poor Perverse changes in consumption patterns – decline in cereal share Trend reduction in average cereal consumption Policy Perceptions on Food Security 3
  4. 4. 11th Five Year Plan on Food SecurityTrend reduction in calorie intake – 8% in rural India - 3% in urban India between 1983 and 2004- 05Average calorie intake fall increasingly short of official poverty line norms: 2400 kcals rural India 2100 kcals urban India Policy Perceptions on Food Security 4
  5. 5. Incidence of Poverty (million): 1983-2004 300.00 251.96 250.00 244.03 220.92 200.00 150.00 100.00 70.94 76.34 80.80 50.00 1983 1993 2004 Rural Urban Policy Perceptions on Food Security 5
  6. 6. Incidence of Calorie Deficiency (%) Norms: 2400 Kcal (Rural); 2100 Kcal (Urban) 79.880 75.8 74.2 71.1 70.1 67.870 66.1 64.8 65.9 63.9 63.9 60.5 57.1 58.1 58.26050 Rural40 Urban All India3020100 1983 1987/88 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05 Policy Perceptions on Food Security 6
  7. 7. 11th Five Year Plan on Food SecurityConsequences - Nutritional outcome parameters like low birth weights of newborn babies, anthropometric measures Policy Perceptions on Food Security 7
  8. 8. Review• Estimates of consumption patterns Averages at current prices conceal rather than reveal dynamics of change. Reflect changes in relative prices and not real changes in consumption patterns. Current price estimates exaggerate the extent of changes. Policy Perceptions on Food Security 8
  9. 9. ReviewCereal share, of course, has declined though not to the extent as revealed by current price estimates.Per capita cereal expenditure increased for the bottom three decile groups but not quantities – dynamics of agricultural development.Calorie intake increased for the bottom decile groups decreased for the top ones: convergence at a lower level. Policy Perceptions on Food Security 9
  10. 10. Monthly Per-Capita Consumer Expenditure by the Poorest Decile Groups and Total Population: All-India Rural 30 25Rs at 1960-61 prices 20 15 10 5 0 1960-61 1983 62-63 78-79 84-85 90-91 64-65 66-67 68-69 70-71 72-73 74-75 76-77 80-81 86-87 88-89 93-94 Year Poorest Decile Group (PDG) 2nd PDG 3rd PDG 4th PDG 5th PDG Total Rural Policy Perceptions on Food Security 10
  11. 11. Per Capita Cereal Consumption: All India Rural 18 16 14 12 10Kg per month 8 6 4 2 0 Poorest DG 2nd PDG 3rd PDG 4th PDG 5th PDG Total Rural Decile Group 1954-55 1960-61 1977-78 1983 1993-94 1999-00 2004-05 11 Policy Perceptions on Food Security
  12. 12. Cereal Consumption Composition of the Poorest Decile Group: All-India Rural 120 100 80Share (per cent) 60 40 20 0 1954-55 1960-61 1977-78 1983 1993-94 Year Rice Wheat Coarse cereals Policy Perceptions on Food Security 12
  13. 13. Cereal Consumption Composition of Total Population: All-India Rural 100 90 80 70Share (per cent) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1954-55 1960-61 1977-78 1983 1993-94 Year Rice Wheat Coarse cereals Policy Perceptions on Food Security 13
  14. 14. Consequences• Incidence of calorie deficiency increased by conventional norms but not so by convergence norms. Policy Perceptions on Food Security 14
  15. 15. What is the evidence bydisaggregate population groups?
  16. 16. Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups:All India Rural 25 20kg s per month 15 10 5 0 1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/2000 2004/05 Year Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Policy Perceptions on Food Security 16
  17. 17. Per Capita Cereal Consumption by Decile Groups: All India Urban 14 12 10kgs per month 8 6 4 2 0 1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/2000 2004/05 Year Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Policy Perceptions on Food Security 17
  18. 18. Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Groups: All India Rural 4500 4000 3500 3000kcals per diem 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05 Year Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Norm Policy Perceptions on Food Security 18
  19. 19. Per Capita Calorie Intake by Decile Group: All India Urban 4000 3500 3000kcals per diem 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1972/73 1983 1993/94 1999/00 2004/05 Year Decile Group I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Norm Policy Perceptions on Food Security 19
  20. 20. Incidence of Malnutrition: States Proportion (%) of Underweight Children: Major States 70 60 47.3 50 51.8Proportion (%) 40 30 1992-93 20 1998-99 2005-06 10 0 Policy Perceptions on Food Security 20
  21. 21. Growth RateA Story of Computations
  22. 22. Assess Growth performance pre- and post-reformSource: Government of India (2003): Economic Survey2002-2003, p. S – 4. Year Annual Growth Rate (%)in Per Capita Net National Product (at 1993/94 prices) 1985-86 2.1 1986-87 1.8 1987-88 1.2 1988-89 8.3 1989-90 4.6 1990-91 3.3 1991-92 -1.5 1992-93 3.1 1993-94 3.4 1994-95 4.9 1995-96 5.2 1996-97 6.1 1997-98 2.6 22 Growth Rate
  23. 23. Sectorwise GDP: Maharashtra (at 1999-2000 prices)SECTORS 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003* 2003-04* 2004-05* 2005-06 * 2006-07* 2007-08* 2008-09+1.1Agriculture 3455054 3287801 3480299 3580625 3976855 3715719 4047401 4515299 4985079 39296651.2 Forestry 171997 159797 162504 155770 151688 134022 133559 144553 143940 1364301.3 Fishing 82425 78127 81497 78708 81104 71796 80472 79440 78720 690811.Agriculture & AlliedActivities 3709476 3525725 3724300 3815103 4209647 3921537 4261433 4739292 5207738 41351762.Mining &Quarrying 155625 165329 173300 184801 202241 215049 222812 236126 256201 219964 Primary Sector 3865101 3691054 3897600 3999904 4411888 4136586 4484245 4975418 5463939 43551403.1Registered 3123876 2487223 2321190 2625334 3000532 3323943 3598169 3997157 4282590 42768023.2 Unregistered 1010431 1087980 1055441 1127456 1186591 1272930 1366229 1514549 1638527 16117353.Manufacturing Total 4134307 3575203 3376631 3752790 4187123 4596872 4964398 5511706 5921116 58885384.Electricity,gas and andwatersupply 382856 447933 357175 430124 445522 523478 561244 543319 629107 6457855.Construction 1291990 1134730 1262882 1262050 1374345 1398070 1486430 2083731 2599522 3328045 Secondary Sector 5809152 5157866 4996688 5444965 6006990 6518421 7012072 8138755 9149745 9862367 Growth Rate 23
  24. 24. Annual Growth rates 2000- 2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005-06 2006- 2007- 2008- 2001 2002 2003* 04* 05* * 07* 08* 09+ CAGR1.1 Agriculture (4.84) 5.85 2.88 11.07 (6.57) 8.93 11.56 10.40 (21.17) 1.441.2 Forestry (7.09) 1.69 (4.14) (2.62) (11.65) (0.35) 8.23 (0.42) (5.22) (2.54)1.3 Fishing (5.21) 4.31 (3.42) 3.04 (11.48) 12.09 (1.28) (0.91) (12.24) (1.94)1.Agriculture &Allied Activities (4.95) 5.63 2.44 10.34 (6.84) 8.67 11.21 9.88 (20.60) 1.212.Mining &Quarrying 6.24 4.82 6.64 9.44 6.33 3.61 5.98 8.50 (14.14) 3.92 Primary Sector (4.50) 5.60 2.62 10.30 (6.24) 8.40 10.95 9.82 (20.29) 1.343.1 Registered (20.38) (6.68) 13.10 14.29 10.78 8.25 11.09 7.14 (0.14) 3.553.2 Un registered 7.67 (2.99) 6.82 5.24 7.28 7.33 10.86 8.19 (1.64) 5.333.ManufacturingTotal (13.52) (5.55) 11.14 11.57 9.79 8.00 11.02 7.43 (0.55) 4.014.Electricity,gasand and watersupply 17.00 (20.26) 20.42 3.58 17.50 7.21 (3.19) 15.79 2.65 5.985.Construction (12.17) 11.29 (0.07) 8.90 1.73 6.32 40.18 24.75 28.03 11.09Secondary Sector (11.21) (3.12) 8.97 10.32 8.51 7.57 16.07 12.42 7.79 6.06Industry Sector (10.76) (2.88) 8.89 10.29 8.44 7.45 15.76 12.31 7.19 6.01 Growth Rate 24
  25. 25. Regression based Trend growth ratesSECTORS Trend growth1.1 Agriculture 3.501.2 Forestry -2.391.3 Fishing -1.041.Agriculture & AlliedActivities 3.192.Mining & Quarrying 5.19 Primary Sector 3.283.1 Registered 6.503.2 Un registered 5.943.Manufacturing Total 6.314.Electricity,gas and watersupply 6.345.Construction 11.07 Secondary Sector 7.58 Industry Sector 7.51 Growth Rate 25

×