Toronto condos have had a continued strong run even after the detached market slowed. But condos are now slowing. Here's a deeper look in the March TREB statistics.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Market Charts
March 2019
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

3. Detached $1,267K / Semi $1,021K / Row $942K
Mar vs. '18:  $22K (1.8%)
Mar vs. '14:  $358K (43%)
5 year CAGR:  7.5%
- Negative YoY in 3 of last 4 months
- Detached -2.1%, Semi -1.3%, Row +2.6%
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $604K / Condo Townhouse $650K
Mar vs. '18:  $13K (2.2%)
Mar vs. '14:  $221K (57%)
5 year CAGR:  9.4%
- Condos haven’t had negative YoY since Feb 2015 (49
straight months)
1,2051,1981,204
1,245
1,305
1,2451,226
1,146
1,2251,2121,226
1,071
1,118
1,220
1,182
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
544
584
597
610 608 613
591 590
623
609 603 602
601
618 610
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Mar vs. '18:  3.6% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  27%)
YTD vs. '18:  4%
- 4th month in a row that’s lowest since have monthly
data in 1996
- Is 36% lower than 24 year Mar average
Mar vs. '18:  11.1% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  14% )
YTD vs. '18:  9%
- 21 of last 23 months were lower than previous year
- Lowest Mar sales since Mar 2014 (same story for Feb)
- Rolling 12 month sales down 5th straight month. Now
at below 18,000 for first time since Nov 2014.
510
720
1016
1186
1097
1252
940
855
985
1306
982
502
482
693
979
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
989
1267
1745 1735
1944
1808
1605 1555
1454
1679
1553
955
927
1,170
1,552
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
Mar vs. '18:  6.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  16%)
YTD vs. '18:  2%
- Within recent seasonal ranges, though at higher end
and 15% above 7 Yr Avg.
Mar vs. '18:  16.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  30%)
YTD vs. '18:  10%
- Higher than last 2 years, but lower than any other Jan
after 2002
- Active Listings 973 less than 7 Yr Avg
1580
1800
1995
2327
2835 2758
2506
2119
2874 2780
2434
1537
1592
1792
2118
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1846 1982 2080
2425
2923 2946 2934
2648
2909 2846
2486
1710
1960
2114
2427
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Mar vs. '18:  0.2 months (10%)
Mar vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.7 months (50%)
- Highest Feb since 2009 (4.5)
- Median and average for last 24 years is 2.2
- Underlying w/ prior 2 months: Detached 3.2 (3.9, 3.8),
Semi 1.1 (1.9, 1.3), Row weirdly up to 2.0 (1.7, 1.9)
Mar vs. '18:  0.4 months (31%)
Mar vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.5 months (-24%)
- Below 2.000 34 of last 36 months
- Record 24 months in row condos < houses. In 254
months before March 2017, this only happened 19
times in total.
3.1
2.5
2.0 2.0
2.6
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.5
3.1
3.3
2.6
2.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.4 1.5
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.0
1.7 1.6
1.8
2.1
1.8
1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Mar vs. '18:  1.6 days (10%)
Mar vs. 7 Yr Avg:  3.3 days (23%)
- Following seasonal patterns but at high end of range
- First month lower than prior year since September
Mar vs. '18:  2.2 days (13%)
Mar vs. 7 Yr Avg:  3.5 days (-15%)
- Diverged lower from averages in spring 2016 and has
stayed low since
- Median and avg for last 24 years is 36 so still in
historically low period
31
23
16 16 15
17
22
23
19 18
21
27
32
22
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
27
22
17 16
17 17
20
23 23
21
22
26
27
22
19
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Mar vs. '18:  2.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  11%)
YTD vs. '18:  2%
- Last year saw higher new listings in Nov and Dec to try
to beat the Jan 1 stress test implementation so
Jan/Feb 2018 were lower than normal
- terminations and re-listings distort this stat
Mar vs. '18:  3.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  18%)
YTD vs. '18:  5%
- Only 3rd time in last 9 years was less new listings in Feb
than in Jan
- Touch higher than last year, but that was very low
historically
1074
1458
1895
2307
2885
2336
1816
1423
2712
2482
1672
5141,216
1,376
1,938
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1,674
1,886
2,485
2,867
3,377
2,855
2,671
2,298
2,707 2,777
2,211
901
1913 1905
2559
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Mar vs. '18:  1 pp
Month-over-month:  2 pp
- 9th month in a row higher than prior year
- Full year numbers: 2015 47%, 2016 60%, 2017 49%, 2018
34%
101% or more of asking Mar vs. '18:  7 pp
Month-over-month:  3 pp
- 7 pp difference from prior year is largest divergence
since June
- Days of SOA for a condo being just for special
properties (11% for all 2015 sales) seem to be gone
(27% for all 2018 sales)
73%
81%
78%
19%
32%
37%
41% 40%
35%
27%
25%
35%
37%
31%
23%
26%
34%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 15-'19 Avg
71%
74%
22%
31%
34% 34%
32%
29%
25%
21%
24% 24% 22%
16%
21%
24%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 15-'19 Avg

10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
120% or more of asking Mar vs. '18:  1 pp
Month-over-month:  0 pp
- YoY increases in 8 of last 9 months
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
has moderated, with 2016 and the first bit of 2017
looking to be the outlier period
120% or more of asking Mar vs. '18:  2 pp
Month-over-month:  0 pp
- This is pretty dead now. Hasn’t reached 3.0% since
June of 2017 when it was coming down off crazy
time blip
45%
3%
5%
7%
9% 9%
6%
4% 3%
7% 8% 6% 5%
6% 8% 8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
20% 21%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

11. 416 Detached/Condo price ratio
(average price for detached divided by average price of condo apartment)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Current ratio: 2.10
Month-over-month:  0.02
- Dec and Jan was first time under 2.00 since Aug 2011
- Average since Jan 1996 = 2.13
- Median since Jan 1996 = 2.05
- Max = 3.06, Min = 1.72
3.06
2.10
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ratio of Average Prices: 416 Detached/416 Condo Apt
Current dollar gap: $664K
Prior month dollar gap: $684K ( $20K)
Prior year dollar gap: $704K ( $41K)
2 years prior dollar gap: $1,010K ( $347K)
NEW

12. 416 20-year Price CAGR
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.95%; MoM change  24 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.88%; MoM change  8 bps
7.07%
8.76%
7.40%
7.01% 6.95%
5.89% 5.74%
6.54%
7.09% 7.25%
6.88%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR
Houses Condos

13. 416 10-year Price CAGR
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 10 years ago)
10 year House performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 9.23%; MoM change  10 bps
10 year Condo performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 8.12%; MoM change  41 bps
7.94%
9.57%
10.93%
6.89%
8.47%
9.23%
5.20%
6.09%
8.00%
6.74%
8.66%
8.12%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 10 Year CAGR
Houses Condos

14. 416 5-year Price CAGR
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5 years ago)
5 year House performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.47%; MoM change  48 bps
5 year Condo performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 9.43%; MoM change  61 bps
9.81%
12.16%
13.90%
10.98%
6.12%
7.47%
4.97%
3.75%
7.18%
10.42%
9.68%
11.26%
9.43%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Average Prices: 5 Year CAGR
Houses Condos

15. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 38%
5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48%
10 years ago: Condos 49% / Houses 50%
15 years ago: Condos 43% / Houses 55%
20 years ago: Condos 39% / Houses 59%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2018 sales transactions,
they were 55% of dollar volume (38% and 59% in 2017,
35% and 64% in 2016).
Houses
38%
Condos
61%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
69%
Semi
23%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
90%
Townhouse
10%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

16. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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