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Environment Institute
                  Science Seminar Series 2009
                  Next Week: Monday 1 June


      Why old nuclear power is not new
Presented by: Professor Barry Brook
Energy Futures
Why old nuclear power is not new
           Professor Barry W. Brook
       Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change
   Director of Climate Science, Environment Institute
      School of Earth and Environmental Sciences
               The University of Adelaide
         Email: barry.brook@adelaide.edu.au
Disclaimer!

• I am not a Nuclear Physicist, Reactor Engineer, etc.*

• I have no vested interest in any form of commercial energy**

• Everyone can (should) learn what I am about to tell you!***

*But then neither is 99% of other ‘expert commenters’ on nuclear power. For those who care, I’m an Earth
    systems scientist and modeller. I read widely though.

**I do own a rooftop PV system and occasionally manage to sell back to the grid. Does that count?

*** So you too, with some effort, can become a ‘nuclear expert’ – or at least much better informed.
Why nuclear power is bad*

• It is a CO2-intensive activity (mining, enrichment, plants)

• It leaves a 100,000 year legacy of radioactive waste

• Uranium supplies will run out in 40 – 200 years

• There is a dangerous risk of nuclear meltdown

• It facilitates nuclear weapons proliferation

• Others (necessity, cost, pace, insurance, water use)
*This is all common wisdom. Of course, that doesn’t make it true.
Okay – time to get rational
• The China (and India) syndrome

• Dispelling the myths (a big topic…)

• Generation III+ (the here and now)

• Generation IV (the near future)

• Limits of renewable energy & EE

• Bottom Line: the basket of eggs
It’s a CO2-intensive energy source
(mining, enrichment, plant operation, fuel storage, etc.)
http://www.withouthotair.com
Weisser, D: A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric
supply technologies (2007) Energy http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2007.01.008
• 2005 OD output = 4,600 tU3O8 = 22 GWe (LWR)
   – 192 Terawatt hours per year (SA total = 12 TWh/yr)



• 2020 expanded OD output = 19,000 tU3O8 = 94 GWe
   – 794 TWh/yr (3 – 4 x Australia’s total 2020 electricity demand)
Electricity generation comparison: OD substitution

                        2005 Production Levels
Brown coal (new subcritical):               226 Mt CO2-e

Black coal (supercritical):                 181 Mt CO2-e

Natural gas (combined cycle):               111 Mt CO2-e

Nuclear Power (full life cycle):            4 Mt CO2-e

              Expanded Mine: 2020 Production Levels
Brown coal (new subcritical):               933 Mt CO2-e

Black coal (supercritical):                 747 Mt CO2-e

Natural gas (combined cycle):               458 Mt CO2-e

Nuclear Power (full life cycle):            16 Mt CO2-e
• In 2005, South Australia’s emissions were 28 Mt CO2-e

   – 2020 under BAU = 36 Mt CO2-e

• If CPRS 5% target met, Oz in 2020 [all sources] = 530 Mt CO2-e

• OD expansion will ‘save’ 915 Mt CO2-e vs coal

• So almost twice offset Oz total, and for SA = 25 times
Uranium ores will be depleted
      in 40 to 200 years
URANIUM          Low-enriched uranium for LWR fuel
  HAS TWO MAIN
    ISOTOPES
                       95 - 97% is
                         U-238
Natural uranium
                          3 - 5% is
                           U-235
       99.3% is
       U-238
                  Highly enriched uranium for weapons

        0.7% is
        U-235                         90% is
                                      U-235

                                      10% is
                                      U-238
THE FATE OF THE MINED URANIUM
TODAY, LESS THAN 1% OF ITS ENERGY IS BEING USED
     As mined, uranium is 99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235. For LWR fuel,
     the uranium first goes to an enrichment plant

      Mined uranium (after the enrichment process)

         DU : 99.75% U-238, 0.25% U-235
              After enrichment, some 85% is
              left behind as depleted uranium



           About 15% becomes enriched
           uranium for LWR fuel

                                                EU: 95% U-238
          In today’s LWR throwaway fuel cycle        5% U-235
          about 5% of the EU gets used;   the
          rest is considered “waste”
USED LWR FUEL              All of it is now treated as waste, but it’s not


                                                       The REAL
                                                         waste




      With this portion consumed (in fast reactors),
      dangerous activity is gone in 300 years
LWR FUEL CYCLE TODAY
   Enriched



Depleted


                                                       Used fuel


                                                           Isolation mandated for
                                                           10,000 years or more




                 Reprocessing, as done in France, raises
      fuel utilization to 6%, vs 5% for the U.S. once-through cycle
FUEL CYCLE WITH FAST REACTORS
                                    simplified

     Used
                       Processing                           Fuel for
   LWR fuel                                               fast reactor
                                     Uranium for
                                     make-up
       Waste
(fission products --
                               Fast-reactor power plant
    no plutonium)
                                                                 Reactor

                                    Refreshed
                                       fuel                                Steam



                                        Recycling;
                                      Fuel fabrication    Spent fuel



     Permanent disposal                   With enough fast reactors, no more
     Isolation needed                     mining, milling, or enrichment of uranium
    for only 300 years                    will be needed for centuries – enough
                                          uranium is already on hand.
PROCESSING STREAMS
                 with fast reactors deployed
      and before used thermal-reactor fuel has been exhausted

                        ALL THE PLUTONIUM AND
USED LWR FUEL            OTHER TRANSURANICS,
                       MIXED WITH SOME URANIUM                 Fast-reactor plant

                                                    Fuel
                                                 fabrication




  MOST OF THE
                           Uranium as needed
   URANIUM                  for make-up fuel
    0.8% U-235
                               FISSION
    Stored for                 PRODUCTS
    future use
                                                                  WASTE
                                                               DISPOSITION
EVENTUAL FAST-REACTOR FUEL CYCLE
 Decades hence -- after the Pu and other transuranics from used
          thermal-reactor fuel have been exhausted

Stored uranium left over         Fast-reactor power plant
from used thermal                                                  Reactor
reactor fuel

    Uranium for make-up, from    Refreshed
                                                                         Steam
    one source or the other.        fuel
    One ton per year per 1 GWe
    power plant


Stored DU left over from               Recycling            Spent fuel
past enrichment activity




            Waste Disposal                         To fuel fast reactors, no more
     Fission products only – no plutonium          mining, milling, or enrichment of
    One ton per year per 1 GWe power plant         uranium will be needed for
    Isolation needed for only 300                  centuries – a lot of uranium has
                years                              already been mined.
It leaves a 100,000 year legacy
     of radioactive waste
There is a dangerous risk of
     nuclear meltdown
It facilitates weapons proliferation
800




                             600




                     GW(e)
                                                                                           high
                             400                                                           low
                                                                                           history




                             200




                               0
                                   1960   1970   1980   1990   2000   2010   2020   2030




Necessity, pace, cost, insurance
CEFR (China)
20 MWe (2009)




    PFBR (India)
  500 MWe (2010)
More information, discussion,
references for slides and presentation
             downloads:
        bravenewclimate.com
Environment Institute
                 Science Seminar Series 2009

           Next Seminar: 15 June – 3pm

   How can we help biodiversity adapt to
      the ravages of climate change?
Presented by:   Professor Andrew Lowe

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Science Seminar Series 9 Barry Brook

  • 1. Environment Institute Science Seminar Series 2009 Next Week: Monday 1 June Why old nuclear power is not new Presented by: Professor Barry Brook
  • 2. Energy Futures Why old nuclear power is not new Professor Barry W. Brook Sir Hubert Wilkins Chair of Climate Change Director of Climate Science, Environment Institute School of Earth and Environmental Sciences The University of Adelaide Email: barry.brook@adelaide.edu.au
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Disclaimer! • I am not a Nuclear Physicist, Reactor Engineer, etc.* • I have no vested interest in any form of commercial energy** • Everyone can (should) learn what I am about to tell you!*** *But then neither is 99% of other ‘expert commenters’ on nuclear power. For those who care, I’m an Earth systems scientist and modeller. I read widely though. **I do own a rooftop PV system and occasionally manage to sell back to the grid. Does that count? *** So you too, with some effort, can become a ‘nuclear expert’ – or at least much better informed.
  • 7. Why nuclear power is bad* • It is a CO2-intensive activity (mining, enrichment, plants) • It leaves a 100,000 year legacy of radioactive waste • Uranium supplies will run out in 40 – 200 years • There is a dangerous risk of nuclear meltdown • It facilitates nuclear weapons proliferation • Others (necessity, cost, pace, insurance, water use) *This is all common wisdom. Of course, that doesn’t make it true.
  • 8. Okay – time to get rational • The China (and India) syndrome • Dispelling the myths (a big topic…) • Generation III+ (the here and now) • Generation IV (the near future) • Limits of renewable energy & EE • Bottom Line: the basket of eggs
  • 9.
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  • 11.
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  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17. It’s a CO2-intensive energy source (mining, enrichment, plant operation, fuel storage, etc.)
  • 19.
  • 20. Weisser, D: A guide to life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from electric supply technologies (2007) Energy http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2007.01.008
  • 21. • 2005 OD output = 4,600 tU3O8 = 22 GWe (LWR) – 192 Terawatt hours per year (SA total = 12 TWh/yr) • 2020 expanded OD output = 19,000 tU3O8 = 94 GWe – 794 TWh/yr (3 – 4 x Australia’s total 2020 electricity demand)
  • 22. Electricity generation comparison: OD substitution 2005 Production Levels Brown coal (new subcritical): 226 Mt CO2-e Black coal (supercritical): 181 Mt CO2-e Natural gas (combined cycle): 111 Mt CO2-e Nuclear Power (full life cycle): 4 Mt CO2-e Expanded Mine: 2020 Production Levels Brown coal (new subcritical): 933 Mt CO2-e Black coal (supercritical): 747 Mt CO2-e Natural gas (combined cycle): 458 Mt CO2-e Nuclear Power (full life cycle): 16 Mt CO2-e
  • 23. • In 2005, South Australia’s emissions were 28 Mt CO2-e – 2020 under BAU = 36 Mt CO2-e • If CPRS 5% target met, Oz in 2020 [all sources] = 530 Mt CO2-e • OD expansion will ‘save’ 915 Mt CO2-e vs coal • So almost twice offset Oz total, and for SA = 25 times
  • 24. Uranium ores will be depleted in 40 to 200 years
  • 25.
  • 26. URANIUM Low-enriched uranium for LWR fuel HAS TWO MAIN ISOTOPES 95 - 97% is U-238 Natural uranium 3 - 5% is U-235 99.3% is U-238 Highly enriched uranium for weapons 0.7% is U-235 90% is U-235 10% is U-238
  • 27. THE FATE OF THE MINED URANIUM TODAY, LESS THAN 1% OF ITS ENERGY IS BEING USED As mined, uranium is 99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235. For LWR fuel, the uranium first goes to an enrichment plant Mined uranium (after the enrichment process) DU : 99.75% U-238, 0.25% U-235 After enrichment, some 85% is left behind as depleted uranium About 15% becomes enriched uranium for LWR fuel EU: 95% U-238 In today’s LWR throwaway fuel cycle 5% U-235 about 5% of the EU gets used; the rest is considered “waste”
  • 28. USED LWR FUEL All of it is now treated as waste, but it’s not The REAL waste With this portion consumed (in fast reactors), dangerous activity is gone in 300 years
  • 29. LWR FUEL CYCLE TODAY Enriched Depleted Used fuel Isolation mandated for 10,000 years or more Reprocessing, as done in France, raises fuel utilization to 6%, vs 5% for the U.S. once-through cycle
  • 30.
  • 31. FUEL CYCLE WITH FAST REACTORS simplified Used Processing Fuel for LWR fuel fast reactor Uranium for make-up Waste (fission products -- Fast-reactor power plant no plutonium) Reactor Refreshed fuel Steam Recycling; Fuel fabrication Spent fuel Permanent disposal With enough fast reactors, no more Isolation needed mining, milling, or enrichment of uranium for only 300 years will be needed for centuries – enough uranium is already on hand.
  • 32. PROCESSING STREAMS with fast reactors deployed and before used thermal-reactor fuel has been exhausted ALL THE PLUTONIUM AND USED LWR FUEL OTHER TRANSURANICS, MIXED WITH SOME URANIUM Fast-reactor plant Fuel fabrication MOST OF THE Uranium as needed URANIUM for make-up fuel 0.8% U-235 FISSION Stored for PRODUCTS future use WASTE DISPOSITION
  • 33. EVENTUAL FAST-REACTOR FUEL CYCLE Decades hence -- after the Pu and other transuranics from used thermal-reactor fuel have been exhausted Stored uranium left over Fast-reactor power plant from used thermal Reactor reactor fuel Uranium for make-up, from Refreshed Steam one source or the other. fuel One ton per year per 1 GWe power plant Stored DU left over from Recycling Spent fuel past enrichment activity Waste Disposal To fuel fast reactors, no more Fission products only – no plutonium mining, milling, or enrichment of One ton per year per 1 GWe power plant uranium will be needed for Isolation needed for only 300 centuries – a lot of uranium has years already been mined.
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36. It leaves a 100,000 year legacy of radioactive waste
  • 37.
  • 38. There is a dangerous risk of nuclear meltdown
  • 39.
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  • 43. It facilitates weapons proliferation
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  • 47. 800 600 GW(e) high 400 low history 200 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Necessity, pace, cost, insurance
  • 48.
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  • 54. CEFR (China) 20 MWe (2009) PFBR (India) 500 MWe (2010)
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  • 58. More information, discussion, references for slides and presentation downloads: bravenewclimate.com
  • 59. Environment Institute Science Seminar Series 2009 Next Seminar: 15 June – 3pm How can we help biodiversity adapt to the ravages of climate change? Presented by: Professor Andrew Lowe