In order to prevent Brazil from facing an exception regime, it is necessary to carry out as urgently as possible a new National Constituent Assembly that allows for the conclusion of a new social contract on the basis of which the economic, political and social systems are reorganized. To hold general elections in Brazil in 2018 as it is defended by some parties and social segments with the maintenance of the corrupt and incompetent political class that governs the Country at the present moment without being preceded by a Constituent will represent a worsening of the serious crisis experienced by Brazil at the moment. Without a new Constituent we will be threatened to live with a new dictatorship in Brazil because the deterioration of the economic base and the political and legal superstructure will lead the country to total ungovernability..

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SCENARIOS OF THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
Brazil currently lives in critical moments in its history that can compromise its future as
a nation. The current situation in Brazil is catastrophic because the country is faced with
the problem of economic stagnation, which translates into very low economic growth,
explosive public indebtedness, the contraction of the consumer market, the fall in
population income and mass unemployment. When a country is in a state of stagnation
like Brazil, social chaos and ungovernability can also be established.
What has just been described coincides with the existence of a weak government such
as that of Michel Temer, who lacks the leadership and stature necessary to carry out the
transformations required for Brazil in the current period, becoming hostage to the
holders of the national financial capital as evidenced by the appointment of Finance
Minister Henrique Meirelles. Instead of presenting a consistent economic program that
has credibility and a reversal in the wave of pessimistic expectations that has affected
consumers and entrepreneurs in a widespread way, the Temer government has chosen to
adopt an economic austerity program that affects the interests of the vast majority of the
Brazilian population.
In addition to the deep economic crisis that undermines Brazil's future, President Michel
Temer and several of his ministers are accused of sponsoring of the robbery of public
coffers. In turn, most of the parliamentarians of the two houses of the National Congress
are threatened with criminal responsibility for assaulting public coffers as well.
Meanwhile, despite the efforts of several magistrates to punish politicians, businessmen
and public managers, there are other magistrates of the highest courts of justice who are
committed to avoiding their punishment. One fact is evident, the Brazilian economy is
going badly and presents no prospects of recovery and the country's political and legal
system do not indicate the possibility that they are able to overcome the crisis that
compromises the political and legal superstructure of Brazil.
In short, Brazil's economic, political, and legal system literally failed. This situation
makes the great majority of the Brazilian population put into disrepute the structures of
power in Brazil. In recent research, the vast majority of the Brazilian population
considered the military as the most credible institutions. The Temer government,
parliament, and even the judiciary are poorly evaluated by the Brazilian population.
Since 2013, in the mass demonstrations in Brazil, there have been many segments of
Brazilian society that have favored military intervention to reorder Brazil in the face of
the incapacity demonstrated by the country's rulers and politicians. It is clear that this
situation also manifests itself within the armed forces. The recent statement by General
Mourão that if there is no solution to the country's political problems, the military can
intervene is a demonstration of this possibility.
The political and managerial incapacity of the federal government to manage the
destinies of the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country can put
the possibility of military intervention in Brazil on the agenda. Millions of Brazilians do
not see in the Michel Temer government or in any member of the political class the
conditions to govern Brazil and overcome the crisis. This situation will fuel the mass
movement through the deposition of Michel Temer through military intervention as a

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solution to the current crisis. If the social chaos resulting from the economic and
political crises is accentuated, it can lead to a Hobbesian solution with the establishment
of a dictatorship to maintain political and social order.
In addition to the deep economic crisis that leads the Brazilian economy to stagnation
and the political and managerial incapacity of the federal government to manage the
destinies of the nation, the state of permanent violence in the social environment and the
widespread corruption that dominates the country put it on the agenda the need for the
conclusion of a new social contract in the country. Thoreau, a great theoretician of civil
disobedience, thus poses the problem: if the state becomes unworthy and corrupt, it is
the moral task of the individual to give no further support to him (THOREAU, Henry
David, Civil Disobedience, London: L & PM, 1997). This would be the justification for
the end of the Michel Temer government. The political crisis that affects Brazil at the
moment demonstrates the failure of the social contract celebrated in 1988 with the new
Constitution that came into force after the military regime.
The crisis of representative democracy in Brazil does not work the social contract
represented by the 1988 Constitution and open the way to the authoritarian temptation
that is part of the history of Brazil. According to Buarque de Holanda, this fundamental
political inappropriateness results from the strongly directed tendencies towards
authoritarian temptation in Brazilian political life [HOLANDA, Sérgio Buarque de.
Raízes do Brasil (Roots of Brazil). São Paulo: Companhia das Letras, 1999]. This would
explain, to a certain extent, according to Buarque de Holanda, the authoritarian
tendency present in the history of Brazil and its constant relapse into dictatorships.
Buarque de Holanda affirms that the social contract in Brazil tends to be predominantly
authoritarian because of the inability of the people and the culture to establish political
spaces where Arendt calls the plural thought. This experience, she affirms, is the
opposite of what Buarque de Holanda presents as the most present features in the
Iberian peoples and which were bequeathed to the Brazilians [ARENDT, Hannah.
Crises da República (Crises of the Republic). São Paulo: Perspectiva, 1973].
Buarque de Holanda argued, therefore, that the Iberian cultural heritage undermined the
possibility of greater social and political mobilizations and of the Brazilian society as a
whole, causing the country to be governed by few and by dictatorships. When we look
at Hobbes's Leviathan we note that it arises precisely from the contractors' inability to
establish, among themselves, who and how civilian government will take place. This is
where power emerges above those who should regulate it regardless of their wishes and
consent. In the land of barons, as Buarque de Holanda has stated, where all are cultists
of an individual personality and privileges of wealthy private life, and where it is
difficult to distinguish between public and private, only a power feared by all can
establish order.
In order to prevent Brazil from facing an exception regime, it is necessary to carry out
as urgently as possible a new National Constituent Assembly that allows for the
conclusion of a new social contract on the basis of which the economic, political and
social systems are reorganized. To hold general elections in Brazil in 2018 as it is
defended by some parties and social segments with the maintenance of the corrupt and
incompetent political class that governs the Country at the present moment without
being preceded by a Constituent will represent a worsening of the serious crisis
experienced by Brazil at the moment. Without a new Constituent we will be threatened

3. 3
to live with a new dictatorship in Brazil because the deterioration of the economic base
and the political and legal superstructure will lead the country to total ungovernability..
* Fernando Alcoforado, 77, member of the Bahian Academy of Education and the Brazilian Academy of
Letters - Bahia Section, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional Development by the
University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business
planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is the author of the books Globalização
(Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para
o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os Condicionantes de Desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia
(PhD Thesis, University of Barcelona, http: //www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003),
Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento da Bahia do
Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The
Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM
Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e
Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia
Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica,
Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico
e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática
Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas,
Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2016) e A Invenção de um novo
Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017). Possui blog na Internet (http://fernando.alcoforado.zip.net). E-
mail: falcoforado@uol.com.br.