The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has the support of the vast majority of the population and its different social classes, in addition to having parliamentary majority to implement its policies. To have governance, the government must meet the demands of different social classes to get the support of civil society and should have the support of political parties in Parliament for the approval of their legislative proposals. In short, governance relates to government policy capacity to decide, enabling the execution of public policies. Dilma Rousseff does not meet any of these conditions to govern the Brazilian nation.
Today, Brazil is a country divided between PT (Worker Party) and anti PT which resulted in the last presidential elections. Based on the results of the presidential elections in its second round, it appears that the supporters of PT represent 40% (Dilma Rousseff voters). The difference (60%) is the placement of the PT opponents who do not accept the policy pursued by that party and its leaders in the conduction of the nation's destiny. The existence of a divided and radicalized country that registers today becomes difficult to Dilma Rousseff to perform her task to rule Brazil. The permanence of the PT in power with the victory of Dilma Rousseff in the second round of elections constitutes an institutional political instability factor because without the support of the vast majority of the nation she has lost her condition to govern Brazil. Dilma Rousseff became a copy of Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, facing serious problems of governance in their deeply divided country. The governance of a country by a ruler's legitimacy depends not only of the victory in the presidential elections, but fundamentally in the active support of the vast majority of the nation.
In the current stage of development of capitalism in Brazil, governance is only ensured if its rulers ensure the continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation for the benefit of the bourgeoisie and if increasing income redistribution in favor of classes subaltern (petty bourgeoisie, urban and rural proletariat and lumpen proletariat). For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of disorder is inevitable in Dilma Rousseff government because she will not be able to ensure continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation and redistribution of income in favor of the lower classes. The ungovernability tends to generate political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences in a divided country like Brazil. This is the price that the Brazilian people decided to pay electing Dilma Rousseff as president of Republic.
Political scenarios of brazil after dilma rousseff governmentFernando Alcoforado
Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy to stagflation, the policy and managerial inability of the federal government to manage the destinies of the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country is being put on the agenda the possibility of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff's. Currently, there is a national clamor for the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment or a military intervention.
The gigantic political impasse of brazil and its future scenariosFernando Alcoforado
Brazil's political impasse at the moment will only be effectively resolved with the convening of a new Constituent Assembly to order the national life on a new basis. Only then can cause the current economic crisis can be resolved and are avoided corruption scandals that continuously succeed in modern times involving all branches of government in Brazil and more recently Petrobras. Only then can cope with the failure of representative democracy in the country that shows clear signs of exhaustion not only by corruption scandals in the powers of the Republic, but especially to discourage popular participation, reducing political activity the electoral processes that are repeated periodically in which the people elect their representatives which, with few exceptions, after the elections come to defend interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
William Shakespeare, English poet and playwright, considered the greatest writer in the English language and the most influential playwright in the world, is author in his theatrical play King Lear of the phrase "What a terrible this time where idiots drive unseeing”. This phrase applies perfectly to Brazil of the contemporary era in which we find the existence of idiots, ie rulers devoid of intelligence and common sense in the nation's command driving unseeing, that is, the incompetent members of government structure that already are leading the country to bankruptcy.
Similarities between the crisis of 1930 and 2015 in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The political and economic crises that shake Brazil at the moment have some similarities to those that occurred in 1930 and led to the deposition of President of Republic, Washington Luis. The political crisis in 1930 was the product of exhaustion of the oligarchic regime inaugurated in 1889 with the proclamation of the Republic and the economic crisis was a consequence of economic infeasibility of the existing agro-export model in Brazil since the colonial period that suffered heavy blow to the global economic crisis of 1929. In turn, the 2015 political crisis in Brazil is the product of exhaustion of the social contract established with the 1988 Constitution and the current economic crisis is a result of the exhaustion of the neoliberal economic model dependent on the outside in place since 1990 and it is also suffering the consequences of the 2008 economic crisis that erupted in the United States and spilled over the world.
Today, Brazil is a country divided between PT (Worker Party) and anti PT which resulted in the last presidential elections. Based on the results of the presidential elections in its second round, it appears that the supporters of PT represent 40% (Dilma Rousseff voters). The difference (60%) is the placement of the PT opponents who do not accept the policy pursued by that party and its leaders in the conduction of the nation's destiny. The existence of a divided and radicalized country that registers today becomes difficult to Dilma Rousseff to perform her task to rule Brazil. The permanence of the PT in power with the victory of Dilma Rousseff in the second round of elections constitutes an institutional political instability factor because without the support of the vast majority of the nation she has lost her condition to govern Brazil. Dilma Rousseff became a copy of Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, facing serious problems of governance in their deeply divided country. The governance of a country by a ruler's legitimacy depends not only of the victory in the presidential elections, but fundamentally in the active support of the vast majority of the nation.
In the current stage of development of capitalism in Brazil, governance is only ensured if its rulers ensure the continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation for the benefit of the bourgeoisie and if increasing income redistribution in favor of classes subaltern (petty bourgeoisie, urban and rural proletariat and lumpen proletariat). For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of disorder is inevitable in Dilma Rousseff government because she will not be able to ensure continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation and redistribution of income in favor of the lower classes. The ungovernability tends to generate political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences in a divided country like Brazil. This is the price that the Brazilian people decided to pay electing Dilma Rousseff as president of Republic.
Political scenarios of brazil after dilma rousseff governmentFernando Alcoforado
Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy to stagflation, the policy and managerial inability of the federal government to manage the destinies of the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country is being put on the agenda the possibility of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff's. Currently, there is a national clamor for the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment or a military intervention.
The gigantic political impasse of brazil and its future scenariosFernando Alcoforado
Brazil's political impasse at the moment will only be effectively resolved with the convening of a new Constituent Assembly to order the national life on a new basis. Only then can cause the current economic crisis can be resolved and are avoided corruption scandals that continuously succeed in modern times involving all branches of government in Brazil and more recently Petrobras. Only then can cope with the failure of representative democracy in the country that shows clear signs of exhaustion not only by corruption scandals in the powers of the Republic, but especially to discourage popular participation, reducing political activity the electoral processes that are repeated periodically in which the people elect their representatives which, with few exceptions, after the elections come to defend interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
William Shakespeare, English poet and playwright, considered the greatest writer in the English language and the most influential playwright in the world, is author in his theatrical play King Lear of the phrase "What a terrible this time where idiots drive unseeing”. This phrase applies perfectly to Brazil of the contemporary era in which we find the existence of idiots, ie rulers devoid of intelligence and common sense in the nation's command driving unseeing, that is, the incompetent members of government structure that already are leading the country to bankruptcy.
Similarities between the crisis of 1930 and 2015 in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The political and economic crises that shake Brazil at the moment have some similarities to those that occurred in 1930 and led to the deposition of President of Republic, Washington Luis. The political crisis in 1930 was the product of exhaustion of the oligarchic regime inaugurated in 1889 with the proclamation of the Republic and the economic crisis was a consequence of economic infeasibility of the existing agro-export model in Brazil since the colonial period that suffered heavy blow to the global economic crisis of 1929. In turn, the 2015 political crisis in Brazil is the product of exhaustion of the social contract established with the 1988 Constitution and the current economic crisis is a result of the exhaustion of the neoliberal economic model dependent on the outside in place since 1990 and it is also suffering the consequences of the 2008 economic crisis that erupted in the United States and spilled over the world.
It will be inevitable the impeachment of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff not only due to fiscal responsibility crimes that she has committed, but also by all the devastating work on the Brazilian economy that she and Lula held that and Lula held it in 13 years of PT governments. The balance of 13 years of PT governments indicates the lack of commitment of both governments to the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on the past 50 years, a historical inconsistency traitor. This inconsistency has occurred, especially in the economic and moral planes. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. On the moral sphere, it was institutionalized systemic corruption in the PT governments that contributed to pushing Petrobras and the country to bankruptcy.
The pt workers´party governments are not progress forces in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Governments of the PT cannot be considered forces of progress because the balance of 13 years of Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments is the denial of the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on in the twentieth century, a historical inconsistency traitor. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both PT governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso governments following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. One of the great expectations that are created with the electoral victory of the PT governments from 2002 was that it would be continued Brazilian economic and social development process and national emancipation triggered by the presidents Getúlio Vargas and João Goulart to overcome the dependence on Brazil to foreign capital and the strengthening of production belonging to Brazilian sectors. Rather, what we found was the increased financial and technological dependence of Brazil in relation to the outside and the denationalization of the Brazilian economy.
How to strengthen the movement by impeachment of dilma rousseff in brazilFernando Alcoforado
It is evident the growing deterioration of social movements in favor of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. This deterioration would be motivated by the political difficulties of carrying out impeachment in Congress and legal barriers within the Supreme Court. There is evidence that it is not enough conduct street movements as a strategy to pressure the National Congress and the Supreme Court seeking the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. This strategy has to be coupled with actions that lead to extensive occupation of public buildings and the convening of a general strike throughout the country to demand the resignation or impeachment of Dilma Rousseff as president of the Republic.
Costs of stay in power of current rulers in brazil and the benefits of their ...Fernando Alcoforado
Currently, there is a national outcry by the remoteness of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment, resignation or through military intervention. To be impeachment is necessary that the head of the executive branch commits a violation, such as abuse of power, responsibility for crime, common crime and violation of the Constitution or lost the confidence of the nation and for reasons of state. If it´s not possible to fit Dilma Rousseff in crime of abuse of power, crime of responsibility and common crime, there is only the loss of confidence of the nation by the fact that she practiced electoral larceny or be reasons of state to avoid economic and social disaster that would result for their hold on power.
Signs of economic, political and social ruination are already present in Brazil indicating the strong possibility of the country to be convulsed in 2016 by the confrontation between the political forces interested in the removal of Dilma Rousseff of power and those who fight for their stay in the Presidencyof the Republic. It seems that in 2016, Brazil will be politically convulsed with the confrontation between supporters and opponents of the current government. This may cause them to also street clashes that may require the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order. In other words, whether to dismiss or stay in power Dilma Rousseff, Brazil will be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences.
Brazil facing internal economic problems and the ruin of the world economyFernando Alcoforado
Brazil faces two major obstacles to its development: 1) the neoliberalism that has been devastating the country since 1990; and 2) the process of ruining the world economy. The economic model. It is urgent that the Brazilian State take the reins of the national economy by abandoning the failed neoliberal economic model to reactivate the Brazilian economy and full employment. Brazil should fight in international fora for the establishment of a stable international financial system not subordinated to financial capital and the establishment of a democratic world government that, in addition to promoting economic ordering on a world scale, should create the conditions to meet the great challenges of the world. humanity in the 21st century.
The continuity of the situation currently experienced by Brazil in the State and civil society is unsustainable paving the way for a time of catastrophe in the country. The crisis in the Brazilian economy that threatens to take her to collapse adds to the water crisis in especially São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro and the electricity sector crisis with the threat of "blackouts" tends to produce social tensions and irresistible political radicalization. Four alternative futures can result in Brazil with the evolution of economic, social and political-institutional crisis: 1) the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff with proof of his involvement in Petrobras corruption; 2) the resignation of Dilma Rousseff before the national rejection by their hold on power and its replacement by Vice President Michel Temer; 3) the joint resignation of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer and the formation of an interim government of national unity that would have the task of convening a new Constituent Assembly and, after this, new general elections; and, 4) the deposition.of current in power by the military to order convulsed national life.
Political instability has assumed large proportions in recent times with the denunciation of investigated for corruption that commits not only the country's political class, but mainly the executive and legislative branches of government that are totally demoralized and contribute to become unviable the efforts of Michel Temer government to recover extremely deteriorated Brazilian economy. This situation adds to the fact that Michel Temer be rejected as Dilma Rousseff by the population, making it unable to demand sacrifices of the population to adopt the necessary measures to overcome the economic crisis that will affect the interests, particularly the middle class and urban and rural proletariat that tend to rebel making Brazil ungovernable. For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of the disorder, will be inevitable in Michel Temer government. This tends to generate social unrest and political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences that require the convening of a National Constituent Assembly Exclusive to reorder the national life before the collapse of the political system in force in Brazil.
This article aims to demonstrate the urgency in the invention of a new Brazil to overcome its secular structural problems and the conjunctural problems related to the political, economic, public management and health crises that compromise the country's future.
How dilma rousseff can conquer governability to keep in powerFernando Alcoforado
Governability express the possibility of the government of a nation hold public policies resulting from the convergence of multiple instances of the national state with each other and this with the civil society organizations. Within the national state has observed the growth of opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government in parliament that swells with the resistance against their recessive and anti-social economic policy, as well as its bad relationship with supporters sectors related to its support base in Congress. Under the Civil Society already observed opposition movements to the government's economic policy by sectors linked to labor unions and the middle class that also react against the administrative debacle, ethical and moral of those in power. The opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government and the PT (Worker Party) is growing to the point that some sectors of civil society propose the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and other even military intervention.
President Lula said in his inaugural speech in 2003 he won the election because hope (of the people) won fear (of change). However, when taking office, President Lula and his team have shown that the fear of facing the real causes of national problems overlapped on the hope of the people to carry out the changes required to promote economic and social progress of Brazil because it kept neoliberal economic policy of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government.
Instead of mobilizing civil society to together with the government to develop and implement a national development plan capable of breaking the barriers to economic and social progress of Brazil that correspond to the true interests of the majority of the Brazilian people, governments of PT (Worker Party) of Lula and Dilma Rousseff decided to maintain the neoliberal economic model opened in the Fernando Collor government which resulted in increased dependence of the country on foreign capital and low economic growth.
Brazil is facing a political-institutional problem difficult to solve because the ruler (Dilma Rousseff) cannot rule as before and who is ruled (most of the population) does not accept being ruled as before. The worsening economic situation in Brazil and the inability of Dilma Rousseff government to overcome the crisis and to govern in harmony with the will of the majority of the population makes this situation is brought to a gigantic impasse between the state and civil society that will only be ultimately resolved with a military intervention as proposed by some or impeachment or resignation of Dilma Rousseff.
In order to prevent Brazil from facing an exception regime, it is necessary to carry out as urgently as possible a new National Constituent Assembly that allows for the conclusion of a new social contract on the basis of which the economic, political and social systems are reorganized. To hold general elections in Brazil in 2018 as it is defended by some parties and social segments with the maintenance of the corrupt and incompetent political class that governs the Country at the present moment without being preceded by a Constituent will represent a worsening of the serious crisis experienced by Brazil at the moment. Without a new Constituent we will be threatened to live with a new dictatorship in Brazil because the deterioration of the economic base and the political and legal superstructure will lead the country to total ungovernability..
It has been abominable the trajectory of Brazil throughout history that we demonstrated in our article A deplorável trajetória do Brasil ao longo da história (The deplorable trajectory of Brazil throughout history), published on 03/25/2019 on various websites. The trajectory of Brazil throughout its history is deplorable because the country still faces problems that were created and persist since the colonial period and the attempts of its overcoming were aborted by the repression against the social movements, by the overthrow of governments committed to the progress of the country and with the adoption of anti-national and anti-social government policies. The Bolsonaro government continues this abhorrent trajectory because its election to the Presidency of the Republic is contributing to: 1) the rise of fascism to power in Brazil; 2) the deterioration of the social situation of the working class in Brazil; 3) the country's economic backwardness; and, 4) the definitive end of national sovereignty.
The prospects for the future of Brazil are extremely negative with the Jair Bolsonaro government, whose actions will be dire for the country in the face of the catastrophes that it is already producing and will produce for democracy, the national economy, social rights, the environment and Brazil's independence in relation to the great powers, especially the United States, and the international capital.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
The current problems of Brazil will not be overcome due to the Michel Temer government's inability to abandon the neoliberal and anti-national economic model in force because succumbed to the national and international financial capital and to reform the political system and the management model of public sector because he succumb to the reactionary political forces that make up the National Congress. While Michel Temer and the forces that give her support to continue in power, Brazil will continue a country ungovernable, like a ship adrift ready to sink. Brazil's future is dark in the absence of political and institutional alternatives to overcome the current crisis. Only remains to Brazilian people to expect that, before or after the "shipwreck of the ship named Brazil", a new National Constituent Assembly will be convened to carry out the political, State and Public Administration reforms and, consequently, to reorganize the national life.
Crisis of governability and governance threaten the legitimacy of dilma rouss...Fernando Alcoforado
The crisis of governance in Brazil today is materialized in practice with the sharp decrease in the confidence indexes of the Brazilian population in public institutions and in street demonstrations against the poor quality of public services in general. At federal level, government disarticulation with its support base, its disagreement with the social movements and the economic agents and the errors of economic policy which further aggravated the crisis that befalls the Brazilian economy complement this picture of a government, such as of Dilma Rousseff, that cannot operate competently political and administrative action in order to produce satisfactory results for the benefit of the vast majority of the population. When there is the growth of social demands projected on protests coinciding with the collapse of the capacity of governments to develop appropriate responses, governance crises tend to turn into a crisis of governability. This is the case of Brazil due to the inability of the federal government and state and local governments in general to give answers to social demands in the short term.
In view of the fact that the Michel Temer government does not have ethical and moral conditions to continue to govern Brazil and does not have the capacity to lead efforts to solve the economic and political-institutional crises, the Brazilian people should demand that the Chamber of Deputies accept the denunciation of passive corruption against Michel Temer to remove him from the Presidency of the Republic and, after 180 days, demand that the National Congress elect a new President of the Republic that will constitute a government of national salvation and commit itself to the convening of a new National Constituent Assembly to carry out the political reforms and of the State and of Public Administration reforms, after which it would hold new general elections in Brazil.
It will be inevitable the impeachment of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff not only due to fiscal responsibility crimes that she has committed, but also by all the devastating work on the Brazilian economy that she and Lula held that and Lula held it in 13 years of PT governments. The balance of 13 years of PT governments indicates the lack of commitment of both governments to the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on the past 50 years, a historical inconsistency traitor. This inconsistency has occurred, especially in the economic and moral planes. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. On the moral sphere, it was institutionalized systemic corruption in the PT governments that contributed to pushing Petrobras and the country to bankruptcy.
The pt workers´party governments are not progress forces in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Governments of the PT cannot be considered forces of progress because the balance of 13 years of Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments is the denial of the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on in the twentieth century, a historical inconsistency traitor. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both PT governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso governments following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. One of the great expectations that are created with the electoral victory of the PT governments from 2002 was that it would be continued Brazilian economic and social development process and national emancipation triggered by the presidents Getúlio Vargas and João Goulart to overcome the dependence on Brazil to foreign capital and the strengthening of production belonging to Brazilian sectors. Rather, what we found was the increased financial and technological dependence of Brazil in relation to the outside and the denationalization of the Brazilian economy.
How to strengthen the movement by impeachment of dilma rousseff in brazilFernando Alcoforado
It is evident the growing deterioration of social movements in favor of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. This deterioration would be motivated by the political difficulties of carrying out impeachment in Congress and legal barriers within the Supreme Court. There is evidence that it is not enough conduct street movements as a strategy to pressure the National Congress and the Supreme Court seeking the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. This strategy has to be coupled with actions that lead to extensive occupation of public buildings and the convening of a general strike throughout the country to demand the resignation or impeachment of Dilma Rousseff as president of the Republic.
Costs of stay in power of current rulers in brazil and the benefits of their ...Fernando Alcoforado
Currently, there is a national outcry by the remoteness of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment, resignation or through military intervention. To be impeachment is necessary that the head of the executive branch commits a violation, such as abuse of power, responsibility for crime, common crime and violation of the Constitution or lost the confidence of the nation and for reasons of state. If it´s not possible to fit Dilma Rousseff in crime of abuse of power, crime of responsibility and common crime, there is only the loss of confidence of the nation by the fact that she practiced electoral larceny or be reasons of state to avoid economic and social disaster that would result for their hold on power.
Signs of economic, political and social ruination are already present in Brazil indicating the strong possibility of the country to be convulsed in 2016 by the confrontation between the political forces interested in the removal of Dilma Rousseff of power and those who fight for their stay in the Presidencyof the Republic. It seems that in 2016, Brazil will be politically convulsed with the confrontation between supporters and opponents of the current government. This may cause them to also street clashes that may require the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order. In other words, whether to dismiss or stay in power Dilma Rousseff, Brazil will be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences.
Brazil facing internal economic problems and the ruin of the world economyFernando Alcoforado
Brazil faces two major obstacles to its development: 1) the neoliberalism that has been devastating the country since 1990; and 2) the process of ruining the world economy. The economic model. It is urgent that the Brazilian State take the reins of the national economy by abandoning the failed neoliberal economic model to reactivate the Brazilian economy and full employment. Brazil should fight in international fora for the establishment of a stable international financial system not subordinated to financial capital and the establishment of a democratic world government that, in addition to promoting economic ordering on a world scale, should create the conditions to meet the great challenges of the world. humanity in the 21st century.
The continuity of the situation currently experienced by Brazil in the State and civil society is unsustainable paving the way for a time of catastrophe in the country. The crisis in the Brazilian economy that threatens to take her to collapse adds to the water crisis in especially São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro and the electricity sector crisis with the threat of "blackouts" tends to produce social tensions and irresistible political radicalization. Four alternative futures can result in Brazil with the evolution of economic, social and political-institutional crisis: 1) the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff with proof of his involvement in Petrobras corruption; 2) the resignation of Dilma Rousseff before the national rejection by their hold on power and its replacement by Vice President Michel Temer; 3) the joint resignation of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer and the formation of an interim government of national unity that would have the task of convening a new Constituent Assembly and, after this, new general elections; and, 4) the deposition.of current in power by the military to order convulsed national life.
Political instability has assumed large proportions in recent times with the denunciation of investigated for corruption that commits not only the country's political class, but mainly the executive and legislative branches of government that are totally demoralized and contribute to become unviable the efforts of Michel Temer government to recover extremely deteriorated Brazilian economy. This situation adds to the fact that Michel Temer be rejected as Dilma Rousseff by the population, making it unable to demand sacrifices of the population to adopt the necessary measures to overcome the economic crisis that will affect the interests, particularly the middle class and urban and rural proletariat that tend to rebel making Brazil ungovernable. For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of the disorder, will be inevitable in Michel Temer government. This tends to generate social unrest and political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences that require the convening of a National Constituent Assembly Exclusive to reorder the national life before the collapse of the political system in force in Brazil.
This article aims to demonstrate the urgency in the invention of a new Brazil to overcome its secular structural problems and the conjunctural problems related to the political, economic, public management and health crises that compromise the country's future.
How dilma rousseff can conquer governability to keep in powerFernando Alcoforado
Governability express the possibility of the government of a nation hold public policies resulting from the convergence of multiple instances of the national state with each other and this with the civil society organizations. Within the national state has observed the growth of opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government in parliament that swells with the resistance against their recessive and anti-social economic policy, as well as its bad relationship with supporters sectors related to its support base in Congress. Under the Civil Society already observed opposition movements to the government's economic policy by sectors linked to labor unions and the middle class that also react against the administrative debacle, ethical and moral of those in power. The opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government and the PT (Worker Party) is growing to the point that some sectors of civil society propose the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and other even military intervention.
President Lula said in his inaugural speech in 2003 he won the election because hope (of the people) won fear (of change). However, when taking office, President Lula and his team have shown that the fear of facing the real causes of national problems overlapped on the hope of the people to carry out the changes required to promote economic and social progress of Brazil because it kept neoliberal economic policy of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government.
Instead of mobilizing civil society to together with the government to develop and implement a national development plan capable of breaking the barriers to economic and social progress of Brazil that correspond to the true interests of the majority of the Brazilian people, governments of PT (Worker Party) of Lula and Dilma Rousseff decided to maintain the neoliberal economic model opened in the Fernando Collor government which resulted in increased dependence of the country on foreign capital and low economic growth.
Brazil is facing a political-institutional problem difficult to solve because the ruler (Dilma Rousseff) cannot rule as before and who is ruled (most of the population) does not accept being ruled as before. The worsening economic situation in Brazil and the inability of Dilma Rousseff government to overcome the crisis and to govern in harmony with the will of the majority of the population makes this situation is brought to a gigantic impasse between the state and civil society that will only be ultimately resolved with a military intervention as proposed by some or impeachment or resignation of Dilma Rousseff.
In order to prevent Brazil from facing an exception regime, it is necessary to carry out as urgently as possible a new National Constituent Assembly that allows for the conclusion of a new social contract on the basis of which the economic, political and social systems are reorganized. To hold general elections in Brazil in 2018 as it is defended by some parties and social segments with the maintenance of the corrupt and incompetent political class that governs the Country at the present moment without being preceded by a Constituent will represent a worsening of the serious crisis experienced by Brazil at the moment. Without a new Constituent we will be threatened to live with a new dictatorship in Brazil because the deterioration of the economic base and the political and legal superstructure will lead the country to total ungovernability..
It has been abominable the trajectory of Brazil throughout history that we demonstrated in our article A deplorável trajetória do Brasil ao longo da história (The deplorable trajectory of Brazil throughout history), published on 03/25/2019 on various websites. The trajectory of Brazil throughout its history is deplorable because the country still faces problems that were created and persist since the colonial period and the attempts of its overcoming were aborted by the repression against the social movements, by the overthrow of governments committed to the progress of the country and with the adoption of anti-national and anti-social government policies. The Bolsonaro government continues this abhorrent trajectory because its election to the Presidency of the Republic is contributing to: 1) the rise of fascism to power in Brazil; 2) the deterioration of the social situation of the working class in Brazil; 3) the country's economic backwardness; and, 4) the definitive end of national sovereignty.
The prospects for the future of Brazil are extremely negative with the Jair Bolsonaro government, whose actions will be dire for the country in the face of the catastrophes that it is already producing and will produce for democracy, the national economy, social rights, the environment and Brazil's independence in relation to the great powers, especially the United States, and the international capital.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
The current problems of Brazil will not be overcome due to the Michel Temer government's inability to abandon the neoliberal and anti-national economic model in force because succumbed to the national and international financial capital and to reform the political system and the management model of public sector because he succumb to the reactionary political forces that make up the National Congress. While Michel Temer and the forces that give her support to continue in power, Brazil will continue a country ungovernable, like a ship adrift ready to sink. Brazil's future is dark in the absence of political and institutional alternatives to overcome the current crisis. Only remains to Brazilian people to expect that, before or after the "shipwreck of the ship named Brazil", a new National Constituent Assembly will be convened to carry out the political, State and Public Administration reforms and, consequently, to reorganize the national life.
Crisis of governability and governance threaten the legitimacy of dilma rouss...Fernando Alcoforado
The crisis of governance in Brazil today is materialized in practice with the sharp decrease in the confidence indexes of the Brazilian population in public institutions and in street demonstrations against the poor quality of public services in general. At federal level, government disarticulation with its support base, its disagreement with the social movements and the economic agents and the errors of economic policy which further aggravated the crisis that befalls the Brazilian economy complement this picture of a government, such as of Dilma Rousseff, that cannot operate competently political and administrative action in order to produce satisfactory results for the benefit of the vast majority of the population. When there is the growth of social demands projected on protests coinciding with the collapse of the capacity of governments to develop appropriate responses, governance crises tend to turn into a crisis of governability. This is the case of Brazil due to the inability of the federal government and state and local governments in general to give answers to social demands in the short term.
In view of the fact that the Michel Temer government does not have ethical and moral conditions to continue to govern Brazil and does not have the capacity to lead efforts to solve the economic and political-institutional crises, the Brazilian people should demand that the Chamber of Deputies accept the denunciation of passive corruption against Michel Temer to remove him from the Presidency of the Republic and, after 180 days, demand that the National Congress elect a new President of the Republic that will constitute a government of national salvation and commit itself to the convening of a new National Constituent Assembly to carry out the political reforms and of the State and of Public Administration reforms, after which it would hold new general elections in Brazil.
Political conciliation and political confrontation in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Just as the removal of Dilma Rousseff of presidential power and Lula arrest for corruption may increase political violence in Brazil, the same can happen with the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in power. In other words, either with Dilma Rousseff dismissal or stay in power, Brazil may be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences. The greater the delay in the solution of economic, political and institutional problems of Brazil the larger will be the chance of political violence become more virulent that will result civil disobedience by political forces that feel affected in this process.
Brazil is clearly in a recession that was engendered by a series of economic policy mistakes made by the neoliberal governments that followed from 1990 up to the present moment, and also by the passive attitude of the incompetent Michel Temer government that does not adopt any effective measure that is Capable of avoiding Brazil's journey towards economic depression.
Brazil's future depends on a new constituent and retaking of developmentFernando Alcoforado
The path that can lead to economic and social progress in Brazil requires the overcoming of political and economic crises that threaten the future of the country. Overcoming the political crisis requires the convening of an Exclusive National Constituent Assembly to reorder the national life before the bankruptcy of political system in force in Brazil. Overcoming the economic crisis requires the restructuring of the Brazilian economy on new foundations radically different from the current model.
Reform of the constitution or political backlash in brazilFernando Alcoforado
There is no way to change the reality experienced by Brazil in the economic, political and administrative fields unless the holding of the constitutional reform to avoid a political and institutional breakdown in the country and build a new political and administrative radically democratic based on ethics and development for the benefit of the entire population. It is not enough to hold a mere political reform including as has been recommended by President Dilma Rousseff. The situation currently lived in Brazil calls into question not only the powers, but also representative democracy that may lead to ungovernability of the power structures in Brazil, now quite demoralized by successive corruption scandals that are reaching all branches of government.
The failure of the political and economic systems of brazilFernando Alcoforado
The Brazilian people need to understand that small changes or simple reforms are not enough in political institutions and existing legislations and in fiscal adjustments like PEC 241/55 of the Michel Temer government to overcome the current economic crisis because the Brazilian crisis is structural. It is fundamentally urgent to overcome the gigantic economic crisis, the deep political crisis, the management crisis of the public administration and the moral and ethical crisis that threaten Brazil's future. It must be understood that all these crises are interconnected and that none of them will be overcome in isolation without overcoming the others. The first of the crises to be overcome is the political crisis in the face of the absence of governability of President Michel Temer with the convening of a new National Constituent Assembly to reorder the national life in new bases aimed at overcoming the economic crises, of management of public administration and ethical and moral.
It seems that if Dilma Rousseff is not destituted of power through impeachment by the responsibility of crime described lines ago, Brazil can be the stage of upheaval with the confrontation between the overwhelming majority of the Brazilian people that want their deposition and the supporters of Government of unpredictable consequences. One must consider the lessons of history that teach us that the social upheaval can lead to the establishment of dictatorships. This is the risk that threatens the Brazilian society. Does Brazil face the possibility of a tragic future economic and political? This scenario depends on the outcome that may occur with respect to the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff.
The current problems of Brazil will not be overcome due to the Dilma Rousseff government's inability to restructure the neoliberal and anti-national economic model in force because succumbed to the national and international financial capital and to reform the political system and the management model of public sector because he succumb to the reactionary political forces that make up the National Congress. While Rousseff and the forces that give her support to continue in power, Brazil will continue a country ungovernable, like a ship adrift ready to sink. Brazil's future is dark in the absence of political and institutional alternatives to overcome the current crisis. The street demonstrations that have occurred or will occur in Brazil will not be sufficient to reverse the current situation. It only remains to the Brazilian people expect, from the "sinking of the ship Brazil", result in the formation of a new government capable of restructuring economic and politically the country.
The presidential election winner of Brazil must understand that it will only be able to exercise governability if it builds the social peace that is a state of balance and understanding among the inhabitants of the same country, where the respect between them is acquired by the acceptance of the differences and conflicts are resolved through dialogue, people's rights are respected and their voices are heard, and all are at their highest point of serenity without social tension.
This article aims to present the profile of the President of the Republic that Brazil needs in the current historical moment. This article aims to offer its readers what I consider essential for a president of the Republic of Brazil to exercise this role in the current situation of Brazilian life. The future president of Brazil must prioritize the solution of social problems that will only be solved by solving economic problems which will require the Brazilian State to take the lead role, unlike the impotent Brazilian State it has been transformed into since 1990 with the adoption in Brazil of the model of neoliberal society. Without the leading role of the Brazilian State, the gigantic economic and social problems and also the serious environmental problems will not be resolved. The future president of Brazil must use the Brazilian State to create the conditions to promote the country's development on new bases diametrically opposed to those that prevailed from 1990 to the present moment, which led to its social, economic and environmental devastation.
The future President that Brazil needs is that, among other objectives, he must be able to urgently meet the most pressing needs of the vast majority of the Brazilian population, which are the increase in employment with their labor rights guaranteed, social assistance to the unemployed, the increase in the population's very debased income, access to their own home for the poor population with the necessary infrastructure, the provision of guaranteed social assistance to homeless populations, overcoming the endemic hunger suffered by the Brazilian population and the provision of public and universal quality education and health and social security services for the entire population. These are the conditions for him to be worthy of the trust of the suffering Brazilian people and to win the next presidential elections. To win the presidential election, the candidate must demonstrate that he will fulfill this fundamental promise, among others, which are also important.
Nowadays, countries structure their governments on the basis of presidential and parliamentary systems. In the presidential system, the republican regime, as in Brazil, the president-elect receive popular mandate to govern for a certain period of time while in the parliamentary system, the republican or monarchical regimes, the majority party in parliament is tasked to choose the first -Minister, structuring the required parliamentary majority to govern and set up his office. If the majority party cannot compose a new government, new parliamentary elections would be held. In the presidential system, can take place the elected president rule without possessing the necessary parliamentary majority, a fact that constitutes political instability factor difficult to overcome as it has been in Brazil for many years, and particularly in the current situation. Unlike the parliamentary system that enables the replacement of the incumbent government by another in times of political crisis, the presidential system hinders this type of solution given that the elected president can only be dismounted from power legally during his tenure in case of a crime committed or by force through coup d'etat.
Nowadays, countries structure their governments on the basis of presidential and parliamentary systems. In the presidential system, the republican regime, as in Brazil, the president-elect receive popular mandate to govern for a certain period of time while in the parliamentary system, the republican or monarchical regimes, the majority party in parliament is tasked to choose the first -Minister, structuring the required parliamentary majority to govern and set up his office. If the majority party cannot compose a new government, new parliamentary elections would be held. In the presidential system, can take place the elected president rule without possessing the necessary parliamentary majority, a fact that constitutes political instability factor difficult to overcome as it has been in Brazil for many years, and particularly in the current situation. Unlike the parliamentary system that enables the replacement of the incumbent government by another in times of political crisis, the presidential system hinders this type of solution given that the elected president can only be dismounted from power legally during his tenure in case of a crime committed or by force through coup d'etat.
Urges the construction of a new alternative of political power in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The lack of political conditions to make economic changes that meet the interests of the nation and ensure the governance of the current power holders is committed because the government Dilma Rousseff has shown not have political force, does not have enough power and have no leadership to propose the nation a national development project that contributes to reverse the current situation. Time works against the government Dilma Rousseff whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population. All this set of factors can contribute to growth the movement for impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. Given this perspective, the Brazilian nation have to build a new alternative power with the creation of a new party that is the antithesis of the parties that held power after the military regime and demonstrate they are unable to promote economic and social development of country for the benefit of the vast majority of its population, and many of them are complicit with systemic corruption that advances in all instances of national power.
Brazil is a country that has its economic system in a terminal stage due to the vertiginous wave of mass unemployment and the widespread bankruptcy of companies aggravated by government measures that restrict economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that contribute to lead Brazil to depression economic which can cause a social upheaval unprecedented in the history of the country. This social upheaval will result from the worsening economic situation of the vast majority of the Brazilian population, especially the poorest. Hunger, which is present in the majority of the Brazilian population, tends to increase with the vertiginous retraction of economic activity resulting from the measures adopted by governments at all levels to combat the coronavirus.
Similar to Dilma rousseff government is factor of political and institutional instability of brazil (15)
Este artigo tem por objetivo demonstrar que o povo brasileiro vive o inferno representado pelas catástrofes políticas, econômicas, sociais e ambientais que estão conduzindo o País a um desastre humanitário sem precedentes em sua história de gigantescas proporções. A catástrofe política no Brasil poderá ocorrer com o fim do processo democrático resultante da escalada do fascismo na sociedade pela ação do presidente Jair Bolsonaro que busca colocar em prática sua proposta de governo tipicamente fascista baseada no culto explícito da ordem, na violência de Estado, em práticas autoritárias de governo, no desprezo social por grupos vulneráveis e fragilizados e no anticomunismo. Soma-se à catástrofe política, a catástrofe econômica caracterizada pela estagnação da economia brasileira que amarga uma recessão em 2020 agravada pela pandemia do novo coronavirus porque o PIB caiu 4,1% em relação ao de 2019, a menor taxa da série histórica, iniciada em 1996, bem como com a taxa de desemprego em patamar recorde de 14,8 milhões de pessoas em busca de emprego no País. A catástrofe social se manifesta no fato de o governo Bolsonaro nada fazer para reduzir as taxas de desemprego reativando a economia, atuar em prejuízo dos interesses dos trabalhadores promovendo medidas contra os direitos sociais da população e contribuir para o número elevado de infectados e mortos pelo coronavirus no Brasil ao sabotar o combate ao vírus. Finalmente, a catástrofe ambiental se manifesta no fato de o governo Bolsonaro contribuir para a inação de órgãos governamentais responsáveis pela fiscalização contra as agressões ao meio ambiente, abrir caminho para atividades de mineração, agricultura, pecuária e madeireira na Floresta Amazônica e afastar o Brasil do Acordo do Clima de Paris.
Cet article vise à démontrer que le peuple brésilien vit l'enfer représenté par les catastrophes politiques, économiques, sociales et environnementales qui conduisent le pays à une catastrophe humanitaire sans précédent dans son histoire aux proportions gigantesques. La catastrophe politique au Brésil pourrait survenir avec la fin du processus démocratique résultant de l'escalade du fascisme dans la société par l'action du président Jair Bolsonaro, qui cherche à mettre en pratique sa proposition de gouvernement typiquement fasciste. fondée sur le culte explicite de l'ordre, la violence d'État, les pratiques gouvernementales autoritaires, le mépris social pour les groupes vulnérables et fragiles et l'anticommunisme. Outre la catastrophe politique, la catastrophe économique caractérisée par la stagnation de l'économie brésilienne après une récession en 2020, aggravée par la nouvelle pandémie de coronavirus, car le PIB a baissé de 4,1% par rapport à 2019, le taux le plus bas du série historique, commencée en 1996, ainsi qu'avec le taux de chômage à un niveau record de 14,8 millions de personnes à la recherche d'un emploi dans le pays.La catastrophe sociale se manifeste par le fait que le gouvernement Bolsonaro ne fait rien pour réduire les taux de chômage en réactivant la économique, agissant au détriment des intérêts des travailleurs, promouvant des mesures contre les droits sociaux de la population et contribuant au nombre élevé de personnes infectées et tuées par le coronavirus au Brésil en sabotant la lutte contre le virus. Enfin, la catastrophe environnementale se manifeste par le fait que le gouvernement Bolsonaro contribue à l'inaction des agences gouvernementales chargées de surveiller les agressions contre l'environnement, ouvrant la voie aux activités minières, agricoles, d'élevage et d'exploitation forestière dans la forêt amazonienne et retirant le Brésil de l'Accord de Paris sur le climat.
Cet article a pour objectif de présenter et d'analyser le rapport du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC), agence liée à l'ONU, rendu public le 9 août 2021 à travers lequel il montre l'ensemble des connaissances acquises depuis la publication de son précédent rapport en 2014 sur le climat de la planète Terre. 234 auteurs de 66 pays ont examiné plus de 14 000 études scientifiques et leur travail a été reçu avec plus de 78 000 commentaires et observations de chercheurs et d'experts qui travaillant pour les 195 gouvernements auxquels ce travail est destiné. Ce rapport révèle une connaissance approfondie du climat passé, présent et futur de la Terre. Le résumé de ce rapport est à lire dans l'article Selon le GIEC, le changement climatique est irréversible, mais peut encore être corrigé disponible sur le site <https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/nature-environnement/climat/selon-le-giec-le-changement-climatique-s-accelere-est-irreversible-mais-peut-etre-corrige_156431>. Alors que peut-on faire pour éviter cette catastrophe climatique ? La solution est de réduire de moitié les émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre d'ici 2030 et de zéro émission nette d'ici le milieu de ce siècle pour arrêter et éventuellement inverser la hausse des températures. La réduction à zéro des émissions nettes consiste à réduire autant que possible les émissions de gaz à effet de serre en utilisant les technologies propres et les énergies renouvelables, ainsi que comme capter et stocker le carbone, ou l'absorber en plantant des arbres. Très probablement, le monde ne réussira pas à empêcher d'autres changements climatiques en raison de l'absence d'un système de gouvernance mondiale capable d'empêcher l'augmentation du réchauffement climatique et le changement climatique catastrophique résultant de l'impuissance de l'ONU.
AQUECIMENTO GLOBAL, MUDANÇA CLIMÁTICA GLOBAL E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A SAÚDE HU...Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar os impactos do aquecimento global e da consequente mudança climática sobre a saúde humana e as soluções que permitam evitar suas maléficas consequências contra a humanidade. Para alcançar este objetivo, é necessário promover uma transformação profunda da sociedade atual que tem sido extremamente destruidora das condições de vida do planeta. Diante disso, é imprescindível que seja edificada uma sociedade sustentável substituindo o atual modelo econômico dominante em todo o mundo por outro que leve em conta o homem integrado com o meio ambiente, com a natureza, ou seja, o modelo de desenvolvimento sustentável. Foi analisado o Acordo de Paris com base na COP 21 organizada pela ONU através do qual 195 países e a União Europeia definiram como a humanidade lutará contra o aquecimento global nas próximas décadas, bem como foi analisada literatura relacionada com o aquecimento global e a mudança climática para extrair as conclusões que apontam como substituir o modelo de desenvolvimento atual pelo modelo de desenvolvimento sustentável.
GLOBAL WARMING, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTHFernando Alcoforado
This article aims to present the impacts of global warming and the consequent global climate change on human health and the solutions to avoid its harmful consequences against humanity. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to promote a profound transformation of current society, which has been extremely destructive of the planet's living conditions. Therefore, it is essential to build a sustainable society, replacing the current dominant economic model throughout the world with one that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable development. The Paris Agreement was analyzed based on the COP 21 organized by the UN through which 195 countries and the European Union defined how humanity will fight global warming in the coming decades, as well as was analyzed literature related to global warming and climate change to extract the conclusions that point out how to replace the current development model with the sustainable development model.
LE RÉCHAUFFEMENT CLIMATIQUE, LE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE MONDIAL ET SES IMPACTS ...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article a pour objectif de présenter les impacts du réchauffement climatique et du changement climatique qui en découle sur la santé humaine et les solutions pour éviter ses conséquences néfastes contre l'humanité. Pour atteindre cet objectif, il est nécessaire de promouvoir une transformation profonde de la société d'aujourd'hui qui a été extrêmement destructrice des conditions de vie sur la planète. Il est donc essentiel de construire une société durable, en remplaçant le modèle économique actuel dominant à travers le monde par un autre qui prenne en compte l'homme intégré à l'environnement, à la nature, c'est-à-dire le modèle de développement durable. L'Accord de Paris a été analysé sur la base de la COP 21 organisée par l'ONU à travers laquelle 195 pays et l'Union européenne ont défini comment l'humanité luttera contre le réchauffement climatique dans les prochaines décennies, ainsi que a été analysée la littérature liée au réchauffement climatique et au changement climatique pour extraire les conclusions qui indiquent comment remplacer le modèle de développement actuel par le modèle de développement durable.
Cet article a trois objectifs : 1) démontrer qu'il y a un changement drastique du climat de la Terre grâce au réchauffement climatique, qui contribue à la survenue d'inondations dans les villes aux effets de plus en plus catastrophiques ; 2) proposer des mesures pour lutter contre le changement climatique mondial ; et 3) proposer des mesures pour préparer les villes à faire face à des événements météorologiques extrêmes. Récemment, des inondations se sont produites qui exposent la vulnérabilité des villes d'Europe et de Chine aux conditions météorologiques les plus extrêmes. Après les inondations qui ont fait des morts en Allemagne, en Belgique et en Chine, le message a été renforcé que des changements importants sont nécessaires pour préparer les villes à faire face à des événements similaires à l'avenir. Les gouvernements doivent admettre que les infrastructures qu'ils ont construites dans le passé pour les villes, même à une époque plus récente, sont vulnérables à ces phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes. Pour faire face aux inondations qui deviendront de plus en plus fréquentes, les gouvernements doivent agir simultanément dans trois directions : la première est de lutter contre le changement climatique mondial ; le second est de préparer les villes à faire face à des événements météorologiques extrêmes et le troisième est de mettre en œuvre une société durable aux niveaux national et mondial.
This article has three objectives: 1) to demonstrate that there is a drastic change in the Earth's climate thanks to global warming, which is contributing to the occurrence of floods in cities that are increasingly catastrophic in their effects; 2) propose measures to combat global climate change; and 3) propose measures to prepare cities to face extreme weather events. Recently, floods have occurred that expose the vulnerability of cities in Europe and China to the most extreme weather. After the floods that killed people in Germany, Belgium and China, the message was reinforced that significant changes are needed to prepare cities to face similar events in the future. Governments need to admit that the infrastructure they built in the past for cities, even in more recent times, is vulnerable to these extreme weather events. To deal with the floods that will become more and more frequent, governments need to act simultaneously in three directions: the first is to combat global climate change; the second is to prepare cities to face extreme weather events and the third is to implement a sustainable society at the national and global levels.
Este artigo tem três objetivos: 1) demonstrar que está havendo uma mudança drástica no clima da Terra graças ao aquecimento global que está contribuindo para a ocorrência de inundações nas cidades que se repetem de forma cada vez mais catastrófica em seus efeitos; 2) propor medidas para combater a mudança climática global; e, 3) propor medidas visando preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos climáticos extremos. Recentemente, ocorreram enchentes que expõem a vulnerabilidade das cidades da Europa e da China ao clima mais extremo. Depois das enchentes que mataram pessoas na Alemanha, Bélgica e China foi reforçada a mensagem de que são necessárias mudanças significativas para preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos similares no futuro. Os governos precisam admitir que a infraestrutura que construíram no passado para as cidades, mesmo em tempos mais recentes, é vulnerável a esses eventos de clima extremo. Para lidar com as inundações que serão cada vez mais frequentes, os governos precisam agir simultaneamente em três direções: a primeira consiste em combater a mudança climática global; a segunda consiste em preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos extremos no clima e a terceira consiste em implantar uma sociedade sustentável nas esferas nacional e global.
CIVILIZAÇÃO OU BARBÁRIE SÃO AS ESCOLHAS DO POVO BRASILEIRO NAS ELEIÇÕES DE 2022 Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo demonstrar que as eleições de 2022 são decisivas para o futuro do Brasil porque que o povo brasileiro terá que decidir entre os valores da civilização e da democracia ou os da barbárie e do fascismo defendidos pelos candidatos à Presidência da República. É preciso observar que a Civilização é considerada o estágio mais avançado que uma sociedade humana pode alcançar do ponto de vista político, econômico, social, cultural, científico e tecnológico. O contrário de civilização é a Barbárie que é a condição daquilo que é selvagem, cruel, desumano e grosseiro, ou seja, quem ou o que é tido como bárbaro que atenta contra o progresso político, econômico, social, cultural, científico e tecnológico. A barbárie sempre se caracterizou ao longo da história da humanidade por grupos que usam a força e a crueldade para alcançar seus objetivos.
CIVILISATION OU BARBARIE SONT LES CHOIX DU PEUPLE BRÉSILIEN AUX ÉLECTIONS DE ...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à démontrer que les élections de 2022 sont décisives pour l'avenir du Brésil car le peuple brésilien devra trancher entre les valeurs de civilisation et de démocratie ou celles de barbarie et de fascisme défendues par les candidats à la Présidence de la République. Il convient de noter que la civilisation est considérée comme le stade le plus avancé qu'une société humaine puisse atteindre d'un point de vue politique, économique, social, culturel, scientifique et technologique. Le contraire de la civilisation est la barbarie, qui est la condition de ce qui est sauvage, cruel, inhumain et grossier, c'est-à-dire qui ou ce qui est considéré comme barbare qui attaque le progrès politique, économique, social, culturel, scientifique et technologique. La barbarie a toujours été caractérisée tout au long de l'histoire de l'humanité par des groupes qui utilisent la force et la cruauté pour atteindre leurs objectifs.
CIVILIZATION OR BARBARISM ARE THE CHOICES OF THE BRAZILIAN PEOPLE IN THE 2022...Fernando Alcoforado
This article aims to demonstrate that the 2022 elections are decisive for the future of Brazil because the Brazilian people will have to decide between the values of civilization and democracy or those of barbarism and fascism defended by candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. It should be noted that Civilization is considered the most advanced stage that a human society can reach from a political, economic, social, cultural, scientific and technological point of view. The opposite of civilization is Barbarism, which is the condition of what is savage, cruel, inhuman and coarse, that is, who or what is considered barbaric that attacks political, economic, social, cultural, scientific and technological progress. Barbarism has always been characterized throughout human history by groups that use force and cruelty to achieve their goals.
COMO EVITAR A PREVISÃO DE STEPHEN HAWKING DE QUE A HUMANIDADE SÓ TEM MAIS 100...Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar o que foi dito pelo falecido cientista Stephen Hawking que afirmou em 2018 que a espécie humana poderia ser levada à extinção em 100 anos e que, devido a isto, forçaria os seres humanos a saírem da Terra, bem como demonstrar que as ameaças de extinção da espécie humana citadas por Hawking podem ser enfrentadas sem que haja a necessidade de fuga de seres humanos da Terra.
COMMENT ÉVITER LA PRÉVISION DE STEPHEN HAWKING QUE L'HUMANITÉ N'A QUE 100 ANS...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à présenter ce qu'a dit le regretté scientifique Stephen Hawking qui a déclaré en 2018 que l'espèce humaine pourrait être amenée à l'extinction dans 100 ans et que, de ce fait, il forcerait les êtres humains à quitter la Terre, ainsi que démontrer que les menaces d'extinction de l'espèce humaine citées par Hawking peuvent être affrontées sans que les êtres humains aient besoin de s'échapper de la Terre.
Today the French Revolution is commemorated, which was a dividing mark in the history of humanity, starting the contemporary age. It was such an important event that its ideals influenced many movements around the world.
On commémore aujourd'hui la Révolution française, qui a marqué l'histoire de l'humanité en commençant l'ère contemporaine. C'était un événement si important que ses idéaux ont influencé de nombreux mouvements à travers le monde.
Hoje é comemorada a Revolução Francesa que foi um marco divisório da história da humanidade dando início à idade contemporânea. Foi um acontecimento tão importante que seus ideais influenciaram vários movimentos ao redor do mundo.
O TARIFAÇO DE ENERGIA É SINAL DE INCOMPETÊNCIA DO GOVERNO FEDERAL NO PLANEJAM...Fernando Alcoforado
É bastante evidente o descalabro do setor elétrico do Brasil. O planejamento eficaz do setor elétrico é aquele que deve ser desenvolvido com vários anos de antecedência e baseado em estudos técnicos e econômicos. A gestão competente tem que ser baseada no planejamento de longo prazo e com visão sistêmica que está faltando ao governo Bolsonaro. Sem a cultura do planejamento e a não utilização de profissionais competentes nas ações do governo federal, o resultado só poderia ser o que vem se registrando no setor elétrico que está ameaçado de “apagões” e de racionamento de energia elétrica.
LES RÉVOLUTIONS SOCIALES, LEURS FACTEURS DÉCLENCHEURS ET LE BRÉSIL ACTUELFernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à analyser les facteurs déclencheurs des révolutions sociales qui se sont produites tout au long de l'histoire de l'humanité et à évaluer la possibilité de leur occurrence dans le Brésil contemporain.
SOCIAL REVOLUTIONS, THEIR TRIGGERS FACTORS AND CURRENT BRAZILFernando Alcoforado
This article aims to analyze the triggering factors of social revolutions that have occurred throughout human history and assess the possibility of their occurrence in contemporary Brazil.
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In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
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हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
Dilma rousseff government is factor of political and institutional instability of brazil
1. 1
DILMA ROUSSEFF GOVERNMENT IS FACTOR OF POLITICAL AND
INSTITUTIONAL INSTABILITY OF BRAZIL
Fernando Alcoforado *
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has the support of
the vast majority of the population and its different social classes, in addition to having
parliamentary majority to implement its policies. To have governance, the government
must meet the demands of different social classes to get the support of civil society and
should have the support of political parties in Parliament for the approval of their
legislative proposals. In short, governance relates to government policy capacity to
decide, enabling the execution of public policies. Dilma Rousseff does not meet any of
these conditions to govern the Brazilian nation.
According to Antonio Gramsci, an Italian philosopher, the capitalist state like Brazil
does not only present as a political-military apparatus by which the ruling class (the
bourgeoisie) organize coercion over other social classes. To ensure good governance, as
well as having the monopoly of repression and violence, the state must win the support
of the ruling classes and also of the lower social classes through persuasion, winning the
consent of the dominated [Gramsci Antonio. Escritos Políticos (Political Writings). Rio
de Janeiro: Civilização Brasileira, 2004]. Dilma Rousseff is gradually losing the support
of the ruling classes and also of the lower social classes.
We must make it clear that, at the current stage of development of capitalism in Brazil,
governance is only ensured if its rulers ensure the continuity of the process of capitalist
accumulation for the benefit of national and international bourgeoisie and there is
growing redistribution of income in favor of subaltern classes (petty bourgeoisie, urban
and rural proletariat and lumpenproletariat). It is worth noting that the gains or profits
earned by national and international bourgeoisie and the welfare level enjoyed by the
population of a country determine the existing governance index at any given time.
Therefore, in order to govern, every government should seek to ensure the gains of the
capitalists and the improvement of material well-being of the population. And to
improve it, the government needs to promote economic development to facilitate the
accumulation of capital and generate employment and income for the population.
The economic stagnation that hit Brazil and compromise capitalists' profits, raise
unemployment and adversely affect the distribution of income, is reducing state
revenues that is already demanding cuts in the government budget and tax increases.
Most likely, no domestic and foreign investor would invest in Brazil with a stagnant
economy at the moment with a government under siege by its population as of Dilma
Rousseff. Brazil lost today (9/9/2014) a credit note downgraded by Standard & Poor's
(S & P) which causes the country to lose good paying status. The stagnation of the
Brazilian economy makes also occur government revenues fall at all levels implying no
public resources for quantity sufficient to invest in economic and social infrastructure
and to keep the social programs of income transfer as the "Bolsa Familia".
For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the disorder domain, is inevitable in
Dilma Rousseff government because she will not have political and administrative
conditions to ensure the continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation and
redistribution of income in favor of the lower classes, especially from 2016 when the
economic crisis, political and social expected to reach its peak. The ungovernability
tends to generate political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences
2. 2
because it has a ruler who has the support of only 7% of the population. It is because of
all this that Dilma Roussef constitutes institutional political instability factor because
without the nation's most support she lost the condition of governing the nation. Dilma
Roussef became a copy of Nicolas Maduro as president of Venezuela facing serious
governance issues in their deeply divided country.
It should be noted that the governability of a country by a ruling not only depend on the
legitimacy gained from the victory in the presidential elections, but fundamentally the
active support of the vast majority of the nation. Dilma Rousseff is facing opposition
from broad sectors of the population who admit even the return of military rule in the
country. The Dilma Rousseff government is facing immense difficulties to govern
Brazil because it lost the support of even the lumpenproletariat, also called the
"common people" social base of the PT governments, and urban and rural proletariat
and has the opposition of the bourgeoisie and broad layers of the petty bourgeoisie.
It is indisputable that the serious problems faced by Brazil at the moment in the
economic and political levels are demanding a ruler who has the ability to unite the
nation around a common project of national development. Unfortunately, there is in
Brazil in the political sphere anyone who meets this capability. The nation is waiting for
a leader who has the stature as statesman like was Vargas who promoted the
construction of modern Brazil with the process of industrialization after the global
economic crisis of 1929 and the Revolution of 1930. The serious crisis currently
experienced by Brazil It is demanding a true statesman in the nation's command to
restructure the national life on a new basis in the economic, political and social plans.
The current economic slowdown associated with the widespread increase in prices is
catastrophic for the vast majority of the population because, besides increasing
unemployment, reduce your purchasing power. The crisis which led to
deindustrialization in Brazil for many years, should also extend to trade and
agribusiness. It would be formed in this way, the culture broth to the increase of social
stresses in Brazil. The catastrophic economic situation tends to lead Brazil to social
chaos. To address the current crisis, a government committed to the interests of the
Brazilian people should present a consistent economic program that had credibility and
provoked a reversal in the wave of pessimistic expectations that has affected workers
and employers across the board.
Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy into stagflation, of the
politics and managerial incapacity of the federal government to manage the destiny of
the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country, is being put on the
agenda the possibility of impeachment of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency of
Republic. There are three major threats to the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in power:
1) the growing worsening of the economic crisis; 2) their relationship deteriorated to the
National Congress, especially with leaders of the PMDB (Brazilian Democratic
Movement Party); 3) 93% of the population of revulsion against the government; 4) the
judgment by the TCU (Court Union Accounts) of the acts that constitute the crime of
tax responsibility of Dilma Rousseff government; and, 5) the trial by the TSE of the
presidential campaign of the PT by the use of funds derived from corruption at
Petrobras. The future of Brazil depends on the presence or not of Dilma Rousseff in
power. If Rousseff remain in the presidency and the country becoming ungovernable,
there may be the return of the military to power to maintain order and if his dismissal
could open the possibility of reversal of the current critical situation.
3. 3
*Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).