The path that can lead to economic and social progress in Brazil requires the overcoming of political and economic crises that threaten the future of the country. Overcoming the political crisis requires the convening of an Exclusive National Constituent Assembly to reorder the national life before the bankruptcy of political system in force in Brazil. Overcoming the economic crisis requires the restructuring of the Brazilian economy on new foundations radically different from the current model.
Today, Brazil is a country divided between PT (Worker Party) and anti PT which resulted in the last presidential elections. Based on the results of the presidential elections in its second round, it appears that the supporters of PT represent 40% (Dilma Rousseff voters). The difference (60%) is the placement of the PT opponents who do not accept the policy pursued by that party and its leaders in the conduction of the nation's destiny. The existence of a divided and radicalized country that registers today becomes difficult to Dilma Rousseff to perform her task to rule Brazil. The permanence of the PT in power with the victory of Dilma Rousseff in the second round of elections constitutes an institutional political instability factor because without the support of the vast majority of the nation she has lost her condition to govern Brazil. Dilma Rousseff became a copy of Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, facing serious problems of governance in their deeply divided country. The governance of a country by a ruler's legitimacy depends not only of the victory in the presidential elections, but fundamentally in the active support of the vast majority of the nation.
How to strengthen the movement by impeachment of dilma rousseff in brazilFernando Alcoforado
It is evident the growing deterioration of social movements in favor of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. This deterioration would be motivated by the political difficulties of carrying out impeachment in Congress and legal barriers within the Supreme Court. There is evidence that it is not enough conduct street movements as a strategy to pressure the National Congress and the Supreme Court seeking the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. This strategy has to be coupled with actions that lead to extensive occupation of public buildings and the convening of a general strike throughout the country to demand the resignation or impeachment of Dilma Rousseff as president of the Republic.
Political instability has assumed large proportions in recent times with the denunciation of investigated for corruption that commits not only the country's political class, but mainly the executive and legislative branches of government that are totally demoralized and contribute to become unviable the efforts of Michel Temer government to recover extremely deteriorated Brazilian economy. This situation adds to the fact that Michel Temer be rejected as Dilma Rousseff by the population, making it unable to demand sacrifices of the population to adopt the necessary measures to overcome the economic crisis that will affect the interests, particularly the middle class and urban and rural proletariat that tend to rebel making Brazil ungovernable. For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of the disorder, will be inevitable in Michel Temer government. This tends to generate social unrest and political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences that require the convening of a National Constituent Assembly Exclusive to reorder the national life before the collapse of the political system in force in Brazil.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
Dilma rousseff government is factor of political and institutional instabilit...Fernando Alcoforado
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has the support of the vast majority of the population and its different social classes, in addition to having parliamentary majority to implement its policies. To have governance, the government must meet the demands of different social classes to get the support of civil society and should have the support of political parties in Parliament for the approval of their legislative proposals. In short, governance relates to government policy capacity to decide, enabling the execution of public policies. Dilma Rousseff does not meet any of these conditions to govern the Brazilian nation.
The conciliation alternatives in the brazilian political crisisFernando Alcoforado
The solution to Brazil's problems will only happen if there is the development of a genuine political, economic and social pact through which the consensus of the Policy Society is possible among Political Society (state) the Civil Society. Only then it would be possible to celebrate the true social peace and avoid civil war. It is, however, a difficult building to be held in Brazil today on the radicalization that is the political process in the country. The development of a genuine political, economic and social pact with civil society participation is the key to solve the political, economic and social problems of Brazil due the Brazilian government's inability and general political institutions to offer effective responses to overcoming the economic crisis in the Brazilian nation and eradicate the rampant corruption in all branches of government.
Pt workers party and demoralization of the left in brazilFernando Alcoforado
All the facts of the recent history of Brazil are leading to discredit the PT and the left forces that give you political support. It is confirmed in practice the theory of Immanuel Wallerstein presented in its work Utopística ou as Decisões Históricas do Século Vinte e Um (Utopianism or the Historic Decisions of the Twenty-first Century) (Editora Vozes. Petrópolis, 1998) that "the main element that led to the people to put away of these parties was the disappointment, one feeling that these parties had had a historic opportunity, which had obtained support based on a strategy of two steps to transform the world (take state power, then transform it), and they had not fulfilled its historic promise. This Wallerstein thesis applies entirely to contemporary Brazil. After having failed in Brazil management by bringing it to bankruptcy and not having met the expectations of the majority of the population, PT and its leftist parties allies are desperately fighting for power maintenance claiming that their opponents are coup plotters when, in fact, who is sponsor of the coup d´état is Lula supported by PT and its left-wing parties allied with the rise of the former president to the ministry of Dilma Rousseff that turn her into "queen of England", that is, all power would be with Lula. Besides the economic, political and administrative failure, the left parties allies of PT are complicit with the greatest corruption in Brazil promoted by a political party in power.
In order to prevent Brazil from facing an exception regime, it is necessary to carry out as urgently as possible a new National Constituent Assembly that allows for the conclusion of a new social contract on the basis of which the economic, political and social systems are reorganized. To hold general elections in Brazil in 2018 as it is defended by some parties and social segments with the maintenance of the corrupt and incompetent political class that governs the Country at the present moment without being preceded by a Constituent will represent a worsening of the serious crisis experienced by Brazil at the moment. Without a new Constituent we will be threatened to live with a new dictatorship in Brazil because the deterioration of the economic base and the political and legal superstructure will lead the country to total ungovernability..
Today, Brazil is a country divided between PT (Worker Party) and anti PT which resulted in the last presidential elections. Based on the results of the presidential elections in its second round, it appears that the supporters of PT represent 40% (Dilma Rousseff voters). The difference (60%) is the placement of the PT opponents who do not accept the policy pursued by that party and its leaders in the conduction of the nation's destiny. The existence of a divided and radicalized country that registers today becomes difficult to Dilma Rousseff to perform her task to rule Brazil. The permanence of the PT in power with the victory of Dilma Rousseff in the second round of elections constitutes an institutional political instability factor because without the support of the vast majority of the nation she has lost her condition to govern Brazil. Dilma Rousseff became a copy of Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, facing serious problems of governance in their deeply divided country. The governance of a country by a ruler's legitimacy depends not only of the victory in the presidential elections, but fundamentally in the active support of the vast majority of the nation.
How to strengthen the movement by impeachment of dilma rousseff in brazilFernando Alcoforado
It is evident the growing deterioration of social movements in favor of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. This deterioration would be motivated by the political difficulties of carrying out impeachment in Congress and legal barriers within the Supreme Court. There is evidence that it is not enough conduct street movements as a strategy to pressure the National Congress and the Supreme Court seeking the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. This strategy has to be coupled with actions that lead to extensive occupation of public buildings and the convening of a general strike throughout the country to demand the resignation or impeachment of Dilma Rousseff as president of the Republic.
Political instability has assumed large proportions in recent times with the denunciation of investigated for corruption that commits not only the country's political class, but mainly the executive and legislative branches of government that are totally demoralized and contribute to become unviable the efforts of Michel Temer government to recover extremely deteriorated Brazilian economy. This situation adds to the fact that Michel Temer be rejected as Dilma Rousseff by the population, making it unable to demand sacrifices of the population to adopt the necessary measures to overcome the economic crisis that will affect the interests, particularly the middle class and urban and rural proletariat that tend to rebel making Brazil ungovernable. For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of the disorder, will be inevitable in Michel Temer government. This tends to generate social unrest and political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences that require the convening of a National Constituent Assembly Exclusive to reorder the national life before the collapse of the political system in force in Brazil.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
Dilma rousseff government is factor of political and institutional instabilit...Fernando Alcoforado
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has the support of the vast majority of the population and its different social classes, in addition to having parliamentary majority to implement its policies. To have governance, the government must meet the demands of different social classes to get the support of civil society and should have the support of political parties in Parliament for the approval of their legislative proposals. In short, governance relates to government policy capacity to decide, enabling the execution of public policies. Dilma Rousseff does not meet any of these conditions to govern the Brazilian nation.
The conciliation alternatives in the brazilian political crisisFernando Alcoforado
The solution to Brazil's problems will only happen if there is the development of a genuine political, economic and social pact through which the consensus of the Policy Society is possible among Political Society (state) the Civil Society. Only then it would be possible to celebrate the true social peace and avoid civil war. It is, however, a difficult building to be held in Brazil today on the radicalization that is the political process in the country. The development of a genuine political, economic and social pact with civil society participation is the key to solve the political, economic and social problems of Brazil due the Brazilian government's inability and general political institutions to offer effective responses to overcoming the economic crisis in the Brazilian nation and eradicate the rampant corruption in all branches of government.
Pt workers party and demoralization of the left in brazilFernando Alcoforado
All the facts of the recent history of Brazil are leading to discredit the PT and the left forces that give you political support. It is confirmed in practice the theory of Immanuel Wallerstein presented in its work Utopística ou as Decisões Históricas do Século Vinte e Um (Utopianism or the Historic Decisions of the Twenty-first Century) (Editora Vozes. Petrópolis, 1998) that "the main element that led to the people to put away of these parties was the disappointment, one feeling that these parties had had a historic opportunity, which had obtained support based on a strategy of two steps to transform the world (take state power, then transform it), and they had not fulfilled its historic promise. This Wallerstein thesis applies entirely to contemporary Brazil. After having failed in Brazil management by bringing it to bankruptcy and not having met the expectations of the majority of the population, PT and its leftist parties allies are desperately fighting for power maintenance claiming that their opponents are coup plotters when, in fact, who is sponsor of the coup d´état is Lula supported by PT and its left-wing parties allied with the rise of the former president to the ministry of Dilma Rousseff that turn her into "queen of England", that is, all power would be with Lula. Besides the economic, political and administrative failure, the left parties allies of PT are complicit with the greatest corruption in Brazil promoted by a political party in power.
In order to prevent Brazil from facing an exception regime, it is necessary to carry out as urgently as possible a new National Constituent Assembly that allows for the conclusion of a new social contract on the basis of which the economic, political and social systems are reorganized. To hold general elections in Brazil in 2018 as it is defended by some parties and social segments with the maintenance of the corrupt and incompetent political class that governs the Country at the present moment without being preceded by a Constituent will represent a worsening of the serious crisis experienced by Brazil at the moment. Without a new Constituent we will be threatened to live with a new dictatorship in Brazil because the deterioration of the economic base and the political and legal superstructure will lead the country to total ungovernability..
Similarities between the crisis of 1930 and 2015 in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The political and economic crises that shake Brazil at the moment have some similarities to those that occurred in 1930 and led to the deposition of President of Republic, Washington Luis. The political crisis in 1930 was the product of exhaustion of the oligarchic regime inaugurated in 1889 with the proclamation of the Republic and the economic crisis was a consequence of economic infeasibility of the existing agro-export model in Brazil since the colonial period that suffered heavy blow to the global economic crisis of 1929. In turn, the 2015 political crisis in Brazil is the product of exhaustion of the social contract established with the 1988 Constitution and the current economic crisis is a result of the exhaustion of the neoliberal economic model dependent on the outside in place since 1990 and it is also suffering the consequences of the 2008 economic crisis that erupted in the United States and spilled over the world.
William Shakespeare, English poet and playwright, considered the greatest writer in the English language and the most influential playwright in the world, is author in his theatrical play King Lear of the phrase "What a terrible this time where idiots drive unseeing”. This phrase applies perfectly to Brazil of the contemporary era in which we find the existence of idiots, ie rulers devoid of intelligence and common sense in the nation's command driving unseeing, that is, the incompetent members of government structure that already are leading the country to bankruptcy.
power in Brazil to replace the disastrous Dilma Rousseff government presenting numerous weaknesses, very few strengths and very many threats to its success.It seems that Michel Temer will not have enough time to reverse the economic collapse of Brazil. Considering the Michel Temer inability to resolve the economic crisis and Dilma Rousseff incapacity to achieve this goal if she comes back to power after no impeachment in the Senate may emerge a scenario of uncontrollable political, economic and social chaos in Brazil. This scenario should be characterized by a permanent state of violence in the social environment in the country. To build social peace in Brazil will need to call new elections or a Constituent Assembly Exclusive to reorder the national life, seek the country's consensus in resolving the economic and social crisis, prevent the escalation of violence in Brazil and hold new general elections in the country.
The pt workers´party governments are not progress forces in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Governments of the PT cannot be considered forces of progress because the balance of 13 years of Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments is the denial of the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on in the twentieth century, a historical inconsistency traitor. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both PT governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso governments following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. One of the great expectations that are created with the electoral victory of the PT governments from 2002 was that it would be continued Brazilian economic and social development process and national emancipation triggered by the presidents Getúlio Vargas and João Goulart to overcome the dependence on Brazil to foreign capital and the strengthening of production belonging to Brazilian sectors. Rather, what we found was the increased financial and technological dependence of Brazil in relation to the outside and the denationalization of the Brazilian economy.
Brazil facing internal economic problems and the ruin of the world economyFernando Alcoforado
Brazil faces two major obstacles to its development: 1) the neoliberalism that has been devastating the country since 1990; and 2) the process of ruining the world economy. The economic model. It is urgent that the Brazilian State take the reins of the national economy by abandoning the failed neoliberal economic model to reactivate the Brazilian economy and full employment. Brazil should fight in international fora for the establishment of a stable international financial system not subordinated to financial capital and the establishment of a democratic world government that, in addition to promoting economic ordering on a world scale, should create the conditions to meet the great challenges of the world. humanity in the 21st century.
In the current stage of development of capitalism in Brazil, governance is only ensured if its rulers ensure the continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation for the benefit of the bourgeoisie and if increasing income redistribution in favor of classes subaltern (petty bourgeoisie, urban and rural proletariat and lumpen proletariat). For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of disorder is inevitable in Dilma Rousseff government because she will not be able to ensure continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation and redistribution of income in favor of the lower classes. The ungovernability tends to generate political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences in a divided country like Brazil. This is the price that the Brazilian people decided to pay electing Dilma Rousseff as president of Republic.
Brazil's economic scenario after 2015 is catastrophic because the country will be faced with the problem of stagflation meaning the negative economic growth, the retraction of the consumer market, the decline in income of the population and escalating of inflation and unemployment. Stagflation is a term used in economics that indicates, in short, a situation that may result in reduction of economic growth and simultaneously increase in the general price level. When the country reaches the state of stagflation, is established also social chaos.
The economic deceleration associated with the general increase in prices is catastrophic for the vast majority of the population because, besides increasing unemployment, reduce your purchasing power. It would be formed in this way, the culture broth to the increase of social stresses in Brazil. The catastrophic economic situation tends to lead Brazil to social chaos, and therefore to three alternative scenarios of development of the crisis, as described in this article.
The continuity of the situation currently experienced by Brazil in the State and civil society is unsustainable paving the way for a time of catastrophe in the country. The crisis in the Brazilian economy that threatens to take her to collapse adds to the water crisis in especially São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro and the electricity sector crisis with the threat of "blackouts" tends to produce social tensions and irresistible political radicalization. Four alternative futures can result in Brazil with the evolution of economic, social and political-institutional crisis: 1) the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff with proof of his involvement in Petrobras corruption; 2) the resignation of Dilma Rousseff before the national rejection by their hold on power and its replacement by Vice President Michel Temer; 3) the joint resignation of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer and the formation of an interim government of national unity that would have the task of convening a new Constituent Assembly and, after this, new general elections; and, 4) the deposition.of current in power by the military to order convulsed national life.
The gigantic political impasse of brazil and its future scenariosFernando Alcoforado
Brazil's political impasse at the moment will only be effectively resolved with the convening of a new Constituent Assembly to order the national life on a new basis. Only then can cause the current economic crisis can be resolved and are avoided corruption scandals that continuously succeed in modern times involving all branches of government in Brazil and more recently Petrobras. Only then can cope with the failure of representative democracy in the country that shows clear signs of exhaustion not only by corruption scandals in the powers of the Republic, but especially to discourage popular participation, reducing political activity the electoral processes that are repeated periodically in which the people elect their representatives which, with few exceptions, after the elections come to defend interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
It will be inevitable the impeachment of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff not only due to fiscal responsibility crimes that she has committed, but also by all the devastating work on the Brazilian economy that she and Lula held that and Lula held it in 13 years of PT governments. The balance of 13 years of PT governments indicates the lack of commitment of both governments to the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on the past 50 years, a historical inconsistency traitor. This inconsistency has occurred, especially in the economic and moral planes. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. On the moral sphere, it was institutionalized systemic corruption in the PT governments that contributed to pushing Petrobras and the country to bankruptcy.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
A lack of brazilian people´s protagonism in brazil historyFernando Alcoforado
Throughout the history of Brazil is flagrant the failure of the Brazilian people to play a protagonism role in the structural changes necessary for economic and social progress of the country. Generally, in times of political and economic crisis ever occurred agreements between the dominant economic classes and holders of political power that allowed maintain the "status quo". The critical political, economic and social situation in Brazil at the time may have to reconcile "by the high" among holders of economic and political power to keep the Dilma Rousseff government in power if the majority of the Brazilian people remains passive in regarding political, economic and social devastation in progress. This is the trump card of the incompetent and corrupt holders of Brazil's political power who do not fear of the people of Brazil that is primarily responsible for the rise them to power.
How dilma rousseff can conquer governability to keep in powerFernando Alcoforado
Governability express the possibility of the government of a nation hold public policies resulting from the convergence of multiple instances of the national state with each other and this with the civil society organizations. Within the national state has observed the growth of opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government in parliament that swells with the resistance against their recessive and anti-social economic policy, as well as its bad relationship with supporters sectors related to its support base in Congress. Under the Civil Society already observed opposition movements to the government's economic policy by sectors linked to labor unions and the middle class that also react against the administrative debacle, ethical and moral of those in power. The opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government and the PT (Worker Party) is growing to the point that some sectors of civil society propose the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and other even military intervention.
Political scenarios of brazil after dilma rousseff governmentFernando Alcoforado
Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy to stagflation, the policy and managerial inability of the federal government to manage the destinies of the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country is being put on the agenda the possibility of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff's. Currently, there is a national clamor for the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment or a military intervention.
na edição 2021 de seu estudo anual Democracy Report, publicada esta semana, o Instituto V-Dem mostrou de maneira indiscutível o que os brasileiros vêm sentindo na pele nos últimos anos: o país vive um acentuado processo de autocratização, e está entre os 10 países onde a democracia mais se deteriorou em 2020.
In view of the fact that the Michel Temer government does not have ethical and moral conditions to continue to govern Brazil and does not have the capacity to lead efforts to solve the economic and political-institutional crises, the Brazilian people should demand that the Chamber of Deputies accept the denunciation of passive corruption against Michel Temer to remove him from the Presidency of the Republic and, after 180 days, demand that the National Congress elect a new President of the Republic that will constitute a government of national salvation and commit itself to the convening of a new National Constituent Assembly to carry out the political reforms and of the State and of Public Administration reforms, after which it would hold new general elections in Brazil.
Analysis of what is happening in Brazil as the 2016 summer Olympic Games approach
As Brazil prepares to host the summer Olympic Games next month, the country faces a vexing question: Which of its two Presidents will open and close the games? Could one open and the other close?
If uncertainty were an Olympic sport, Brazil would be a top contender for the gold medal. It’s not just facing the usual host city questions, such as will the installations and infrastructure be ready, can Rio ensure the security of tourists who will throng the city and how will all this be financed? It’s also facing health challenges such as the Zika virus. Above all, Brazil is confronting an existential question: When will it emerge from its deep political and economic crisis?
For further information please contact Thomas Kamm or our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
The current problems of Brazil will not be overcome due to the Michel Temer government's inability to abandon the neoliberal and anti-national economic model in force because succumbed to the national and international financial capital and to reform the political system and the management model of public sector because he succumb to the reactionary political forces that make up the National Congress. While Michel Temer and the forces that give her support to continue in power, Brazil will continue a country ungovernable, like a ship adrift ready to sink. Brazil's future is dark in the absence of political and institutional alternatives to overcome the current crisis. Only remains to Brazilian people to expect that, before or after the "shipwreck of the ship named Brazil", a new National Constituent Assembly will be convened to carry out the political, State and Public Administration reforms and, consequently, to reorganize the national life.
Similarities between the crisis of 1930 and 2015 in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The political and economic crises that shake Brazil at the moment have some similarities to those that occurred in 1930 and led to the deposition of President of Republic, Washington Luis. The political crisis in 1930 was the product of exhaustion of the oligarchic regime inaugurated in 1889 with the proclamation of the Republic and the economic crisis was a consequence of economic infeasibility of the existing agro-export model in Brazil since the colonial period that suffered heavy blow to the global economic crisis of 1929. In turn, the 2015 political crisis in Brazil is the product of exhaustion of the social contract established with the 1988 Constitution and the current economic crisis is a result of the exhaustion of the neoliberal economic model dependent on the outside in place since 1990 and it is also suffering the consequences of the 2008 economic crisis that erupted in the United States and spilled over the world.
William Shakespeare, English poet and playwright, considered the greatest writer in the English language and the most influential playwright in the world, is author in his theatrical play King Lear of the phrase "What a terrible this time where idiots drive unseeing”. This phrase applies perfectly to Brazil of the contemporary era in which we find the existence of idiots, ie rulers devoid of intelligence and common sense in the nation's command driving unseeing, that is, the incompetent members of government structure that already are leading the country to bankruptcy.
power in Brazil to replace the disastrous Dilma Rousseff government presenting numerous weaknesses, very few strengths and very many threats to its success.It seems that Michel Temer will not have enough time to reverse the economic collapse of Brazil. Considering the Michel Temer inability to resolve the economic crisis and Dilma Rousseff incapacity to achieve this goal if she comes back to power after no impeachment in the Senate may emerge a scenario of uncontrollable political, economic and social chaos in Brazil. This scenario should be characterized by a permanent state of violence in the social environment in the country. To build social peace in Brazil will need to call new elections or a Constituent Assembly Exclusive to reorder the national life, seek the country's consensus in resolving the economic and social crisis, prevent the escalation of violence in Brazil and hold new general elections in the country.
The pt workers´party governments are not progress forces in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Governments of the PT cannot be considered forces of progress because the balance of 13 years of Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments is the denial of the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on in the twentieth century, a historical inconsistency traitor. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both PT governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso governments following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. One of the great expectations that are created with the electoral victory of the PT governments from 2002 was that it would be continued Brazilian economic and social development process and national emancipation triggered by the presidents Getúlio Vargas and João Goulart to overcome the dependence on Brazil to foreign capital and the strengthening of production belonging to Brazilian sectors. Rather, what we found was the increased financial and technological dependence of Brazil in relation to the outside and the denationalization of the Brazilian economy.
Brazil facing internal economic problems and the ruin of the world economyFernando Alcoforado
Brazil faces two major obstacles to its development: 1) the neoliberalism that has been devastating the country since 1990; and 2) the process of ruining the world economy. The economic model. It is urgent that the Brazilian State take the reins of the national economy by abandoning the failed neoliberal economic model to reactivate the Brazilian economy and full employment. Brazil should fight in international fora for the establishment of a stable international financial system not subordinated to financial capital and the establishment of a democratic world government that, in addition to promoting economic ordering on a world scale, should create the conditions to meet the great challenges of the world. humanity in the 21st century.
In the current stage of development of capitalism in Brazil, governance is only ensured if its rulers ensure the continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation for the benefit of the bourgeoisie and if increasing income redistribution in favor of classes subaltern (petty bourgeoisie, urban and rural proletariat and lumpen proletariat). For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of disorder is inevitable in Dilma Rousseff government because she will not be able to ensure continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation and redistribution of income in favor of the lower classes. The ungovernability tends to generate political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences in a divided country like Brazil. This is the price that the Brazilian people decided to pay electing Dilma Rousseff as president of Republic.
Brazil's economic scenario after 2015 is catastrophic because the country will be faced with the problem of stagflation meaning the negative economic growth, the retraction of the consumer market, the decline in income of the population and escalating of inflation and unemployment. Stagflation is a term used in economics that indicates, in short, a situation that may result in reduction of economic growth and simultaneously increase in the general price level. When the country reaches the state of stagflation, is established also social chaos.
The economic deceleration associated with the general increase in prices is catastrophic for the vast majority of the population because, besides increasing unemployment, reduce your purchasing power. It would be formed in this way, the culture broth to the increase of social stresses in Brazil. The catastrophic economic situation tends to lead Brazil to social chaos, and therefore to three alternative scenarios of development of the crisis, as described in this article.
The continuity of the situation currently experienced by Brazil in the State and civil society is unsustainable paving the way for a time of catastrophe in the country. The crisis in the Brazilian economy that threatens to take her to collapse adds to the water crisis in especially São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro and the electricity sector crisis with the threat of "blackouts" tends to produce social tensions and irresistible political radicalization. Four alternative futures can result in Brazil with the evolution of economic, social and political-institutional crisis: 1) the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff with proof of his involvement in Petrobras corruption; 2) the resignation of Dilma Rousseff before the national rejection by their hold on power and its replacement by Vice President Michel Temer; 3) the joint resignation of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer and the formation of an interim government of national unity that would have the task of convening a new Constituent Assembly and, after this, new general elections; and, 4) the deposition.of current in power by the military to order convulsed national life.
The gigantic political impasse of brazil and its future scenariosFernando Alcoforado
Brazil's political impasse at the moment will only be effectively resolved with the convening of a new Constituent Assembly to order the national life on a new basis. Only then can cause the current economic crisis can be resolved and are avoided corruption scandals that continuously succeed in modern times involving all branches of government in Brazil and more recently Petrobras. Only then can cope with the failure of representative democracy in the country that shows clear signs of exhaustion not only by corruption scandals in the powers of the Republic, but especially to discourage popular participation, reducing political activity the electoral processes that are repeated periodically in which the people elect their representatives which, with few exceptions, after the elections come to defend interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
It will be inevitable the impeachment of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff not only due to fiscal responsibility crimes that she has committed, but also by all the devastating work on the Brazilian economy that she and Lula held that and Lula held it in 13 years of PT governments. The balance of 13 years of PT governments indicates the lack of commitment of both governments to the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on the past 50 years, a historical inconsistency traitor. This inconsistency has occurred, especially in the economic and moral planes. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. On the moral sphere, it was institutionalized systemic corruption in the PT governments that contributed to pushing Petrobras and the country to bankruptcy.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
A lack of brazilian people´s protagonism in brazil historyFernando Alcoforado
Throughout the history of Brazil is flagrant the failure of the Brazilian people to play a protagonism role in the structural changes necessary for economic and social progress of the country. Generally, in times of political and economic crisis ever occurred agreements between the dominant economic classes and holders of political power that allowed maintain the "status quo". The critical political, economic and social situation in Brazil at the time may have to reconcile "by the high" among holders of economic and political power to keep the Dilma Rousseff government in power if the majority of the Brazilian people remains passive in regarding political, economic and social devastation in progress. This is the trump card of the incompetent and corrupt holders of Brazil's political power who do not fear of the people of Brazil that is primarily responsible for the rise them to power.
How dilma rousseff can conquer governability to keep in powerFernando Alcoforado
Governability express the possibility of the government of a nation hold public policies resulting from the convergence of multiple instances of the national state with each other and this with the civil society organizations. Within the national state has observed the growth of opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government in parliament that swells with the resistance against their recessive and anti-social economic policy, as well as its bad relationship with supporters sectors related to its support base in Congress. Under the Civil Society already observed opposition movements to the government's economic policy by sectors linked to labor unions and the middle class that also react against the administrative debacle, ethical and moral of those in power. The opposition to the Dilma Rousseff government and the PT (Worker Party) is growing to the point that some sectors of civil society propose the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff and other even military intervention.
Political scenarios of brazil after dilma rousseff governmentFernando Alcoforado
Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy to stagflation, the policy and managerial inability of the federal government to manage the destinies of the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country is being put on the agenda the possibility of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff's. Currently, there is a national clamor for the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment or a military intervention.
na edição 2021 de seu estudo anual Democracy Report, publicada esta semana, o Instituto V-Dem mostrou de maneira indiscutível o que os brasileiros vêm sentindo na pele nos últimos anos: o país vive um acentuado processo de autocratização, e está entre os 10 países onde a democracia mais se deteriorou em 2020.
In view of the fact that the Michel Temer government does not have ethical and moral conditions to continue to govern Brazil and does not have the capacity to lead efforts to solve the economic and political-institutional crises, the Brazilian people should demand that the Chamber of Deputies accept the denunciation of passive corruption against Michel Temer to remove him from the Presidency of the Republic and, after 180 days, demand that the National Congress elect a new President of the Republic that will constitute a government of national salvation and commit itself to the convening of a new National Constituent Assembly to carry out the political reforms and of the State and of Public Administration reforms, after which it would hold new general elections in Brazil.
Analysis of what is happening in Brazil as the 2016 summer Olympic Games approach
As Brazil prepares to host the summer Olympic Games next month, the country faces a vexing question: Which of its two Presidents will open and close the games? Could one open and the other close?
If uncertainty were an Olympic sport, Brazil would be a top contender for the gold medal. It’s not just facing the usual host city questions, such as will the installations and infrastructure be ready, can Rio ensure the security of tourists who will throng the city and how will all this be financed? It’s also facing health challenges such as the Zika virus. Above all, Brazil is confronting an existential question: When will it emerge from its deep political and economic crisis?
For further information please contact Thomas Kamm or our São Paulo office: www.brunswickgroup.com/contact-us/são-paulo/
The current problems of Brazil will not be overcome due to the Michel Temer government's inability to abandon the neoliberal and anti-national economic model in force because succumbed to the national and international financial capital and to reform the political system and the management model of public sector because he succumb to the reactionary political forces that make up the National Congress. While Michel Temer and the forces that give her support to continue in power, Brazil will continue a country ungovernable, like a ship adrift ready to sink. Brazil's future is dark in the absence of political and institutional alternatives to overcome the current crisis. Only remains to Brazilian people to expect that, before or after the "shipwreck of the ship named Brazil", a new National Constituent Assembly will be convened to carry out the political, State and Public Administration reforms and, consequently, to reorganize the national life.
New Media Tools for Journalism: Community And ConversationSteve Garfield
Looking at places on the web to find and engage in conversation.
Presented at Boston University, College of Communication, School of Journalism on 10/23/08
Carve-outs and Mergers and Acquisitions place unique demands on IT. How can y...Rita Barry
Mergers are complex and Carve-outs only add to the dif culty and the level of complexity that the delivery team must manage. The creation of a stand-alone entity in a matter of weeks is daunting; moreover, the lack of cooperation from the legacy organization or the attrition of employees creates a chaotic environment that must be overcome. RKON helps clients to determine the most favorable level of IT sourcing and to implement the most appropriate technology for the new business unit — all to ensure a successful “day one.”
How to mitigate the environmental impacts in the productive sectors and in th...Fernando Alcoforado
This article aims to show how to mitigate the environmental impacts in the agricultural, livestock, industrial and oil sectors, the thermoelectric and hydroelectric plants, in nuclear power plants, the road transport sector, rail, air transportation, waterway, maritime and pipeline and cities.
Withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), often shortened to Brexit is a political aim of some political parties, advocacy groups, and individuals in the United Kingdom.
In 1975 a referendum was held on the country's membership of the European Economic Community (EEC), a precursor to the EU.
The outcome of the vote was that the country continued to be a member of the EEC.
More recently the European Union Referendum Act 2015 has been passed to allow for a referendum on the country's membership of the EU, with a vote to be held on 23 June 2016.
The dismantling of political and legal super structure in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The Brazilian nation is facing the impasse of having to live with a solution that means to maintain in power until the presidential elections of 2018 the kleptocracy that governs Brazil. This solution is unacceptable to all Brazilians who want Brazil to go through the path of economic, social, political and moral progress. This solution would aggravate further the gigantic economic crisis that has affected Brazil since 2014.
The shameful submission of the majority of the chamber of deputies to corrupt...Fernando Alcoforado
The majority of the Chamber of Deputies gave a clear demonstration on 08/08/2017 that it has no commitment to ethics and dignity and opposes the vast majority of the population by not approving the opening of assigned passive corruption process against President Michel Temer by the Attorney General Attorney of the Republic. Even in the face of the evidence of Michel Temer's crime of passive corruption, the majority of the Chamber of Deputies filed the process against the President of the Republic.
Costs of stay in power of current rulers in brazil and the benefits of their ...Fernando Alcoforado
Currently, there is a national outcry by the remoteness of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment, resignation or through military intervention. To be impeachment is necessary that the head of the executive branch commits a violation, such as abuse of power, responsibility for crime, common crime and violation of the Constitution or lost the confidence of the nation and for reasons of state. If it´s not possible to fit Dilma Rousseff in crime of abuse of power, crime of responsibility and common crime, there is only the loss of confidence of the nation by the fact that she practiced electoral larceny or be reasons of state to avoid economic and social disaster that would result for their hold on power.
The gravity of the current political situation of Brazil is demanding the re-founding of the Republic who is, at present, a mere piece of fiction. The political crisis that shakes the Brazil follows basically the failure of the political model adopted in the Constituent Assembly of 1988. The failure of the political model in Brazil is set on the fact of presidentialism in force since 1889 to be generator of political and institutional crises such as those already they occurred in the past which resulted in impeachments and coups d´état. In addition, the country's political system is contaminated by corruption as evidenced by the processes of "mensalão" and “Lava Jato” Operation that investigated, respectively, crimes of corruption in Parliament and in state companies. Representative democracy in Brazil also expresses clear signs of exhaustion to discourage popular participation in government decisions, reducing political activity to mere electoral processes that are periodically repeated in which the people elect their representatives who, with few exceptions, after elections come to defend the interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
Signs of economic, political and social ruination are already present in Brazil indicating the strong possibility of the country to be convulsed in 2016 by the confrontation between the political forces interested in the removal of Dilma Rousseff of power and those who fight for their stay in the Presidencyof the Republic. It seems that in 2016, Brazil will be politically convulsed with the confrontation between supporters and opponents of the current government. This may cause them to also street clashes that may require the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order. In other words, whether to dismiss or stay in power Dilma Rousseff, Brazil will be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences.
Brazil will not overcome current crisis without the refoundation of the republicFernando Alcoforado
The gravity of the current political situation of Brazil is demanding the re-founding of the Republic that is, at present, a mere piece of fiction. The political crisis that shakes Brazil result basically of the failure of the political model adopted in the Constituent Assembly of 1988. The failure of the political model in Brazil is set on the fact of presidentialism in force since 1889 to be generator of political and institutional crises such as those already occurred in the past which resulted in impeachments and coups d´état. In addition, the country's political system is contaminated by corruption as evidenced by the processes of the "Mensalão" that investigated crime of vote-buying of lawmakers by the Brazilian government. Representative democracy in Brazil also expresses clear signs of exhaustion to discourage popular participation in government decisions, reducing political activity to mere electoral processes that are periodically repeated in which the people elect their representatives who, with few exceptions, after elections come to defend the interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
New constituent with the failure of the political institutions of brazilFernando Alcoforado
The political crisis that now shakes Brazil is fundamentally due to the bankruptcy of the political model approved in the 1988 Constituent Assembly. The bankruptcy of Brazil's political model result from the fact that presidentialism in force since 1889 has generated political and institutional crises such as those that have occurred in the past that have resulted in impeachments and coups d'état. In addition, the country's political system is contaminated by corruption as evidenced by the "mensalão" operation which investigated the purchase of parliamentary votes by PT (Workers Party) and Lava Jato operations.
Reform of the constitution or political backlash in brazilFernando Alcoforado
There is no way to change the reality experienced by Brazil in the economic, political and administrative fields unless the holding of the constitutional reform to avoid a political and institutional breakdown in the country and build a new political and administrative radically democratic based on ethics and development for the benefit of the entire population. It is not enough to hold a mere political reform including as has been recommended by President Dilma Rousseff. The situation currently lived in Brazil calls into question not only the powers, but also representative democracy that may lead to ungovernability of the power structures in Brazil, now quite demoralized by successive corruption scandals that are reaching all branches of government.
Political conciliation and political confrontation in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Just as the removal of Dilma Rousseff of presidential power and Lula arrest for corruption may increase political violence in Brazil, the same can happen with the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in power. In other words, either with Dilma Rousseff dismissal or stay in power, Brazil may be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences. The greater the delay in the solution of economic, political and institutional problems of Brazil the larger will be the chance of political violence become more virulent that will result civil disobedience by political forces that feel affected in this process.
The failure of the political and economic systems of brazilFernando Alcoforado
The Brazilian people need to understand that small changes or simple reforms are not enough in political institutions and existing legislations and in fiscal adjustments like PEC 241/55 of the Michel Temer government to overcome the current economic crisis because the Brazilian crisis is structural. It is fundamentally urgent to overcome the gigantic economic crisis, the deep political crisis, the management crisis of the public administration and the moral and ethical crisis that threaten Brazil's future. It must be understood that all these crises are interconnected and that none of them will be overcome in isolation without overcoming the others. The first of the crises to be overcome is the political crisis in the face of the absence of governability of President Michel Temer with the convening of a new National Constituent Assembly to reorder the national life in new bases aimed at overcoming the economic crises, of management of public administration and ethical and moral.
Michel temer removal and new constitution to re order the political system of...Fernando Alcoforado
The current situation is demanding not only the departure of President Michel Temer of the power and the exemplary punishment of the corrupt politicians who still rule in the country, but above all the constitution of a provisional government of national salvation composed of high level people who should call an Assembly National Constituent Exclusive to carry out the political, State and Public Administration reforms. After the Constituent Assembly, new general elections should be convened in the country.
Faced with the impossibility of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer build social peace in Brazil would need to be the resignation of both, respectively the Presidency and Vice-Presidency of the Republic to make way for the establishment of an interim government of national unity composed of respectable public figures accepted by all political forces in confrontation that would have the mandate to convene a new constituent assembly to reorganize the national life, seek the country's consensus in resolving the economic and social crisis, prevent the escalation of violence in Brazil and hold new general elections in the country . This would therefore be the way to avoid a fratricidal struggle or a civil war in Brazil when the dissension would remove the construction of a new social pact. If this policy solution is not adopted there will only be one outcome to the institutional impasse in which he lives the Brazilian nation that is the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order to prevent the emergence of a civil war in Brazil.
Brazil faces threats regarding its future originated from the neoliberal economic policy of the Michel Temer government and the disastrous action of corrupt parliamentarians who seek impunity for the crimes of corruption they perpetrate. The Michel Temer government deepens the neoliberal model in Brazil with its criminal policies of fiscal adjustment to ensure the primary surplus that benefits the financial system by setting the “ceiling” for public spending for 20 years, social security reform that, in practice, will do with which workers pay to have a retirement that they will not enjoy in life, a labor reform that contemplates the flexibilization of the labor laws that will benefit the bosses to the detriment of the workers and, finally, the privatization of the state companies and of the public service in general which benefits, above all, foreign capital. In turn, corrupt parliamentarians entrenched in the National Congress seek to adopt legislative measures to counteract the consequences of “Lava Jato” Operation that could lead to the loss of elective terms and imprisonment.
Nowadays, countries structure their governments on the basis of presidential and parliamentary systems. In the presidential system, the republican regime, as in Brazil, the president-elect receive popular mandate to govern for a certain period of time while in the parliamentary system, the republican or monarchical regimes, the majority party in parliament is tasked to choose the first -Minister, structuring the required parliamentary majority to govern and set up his office. If the majority party cannot compose a new government, new parliamentary elections would be held. In the presidential system, can take place the elected president rule without possessing the necessary parliamentary majority, a fact that constitutes political instability factor difficult to overcome as it has been in Brazil for many years, and particularly in the current situation. Unlike the parliamentary system that enables the replacement of the incumbent government by another in times of political crisis, the presidential system hinders this type of solution given that the elected president can only be dismounted from power legally during his tenure in case of a crime committed or by force through coup d'etat.
Nowadays, countries structure their governments on the basis of presidential and parliamentary systems. In the presidential system, the republican regime, as in Brazil, the president-elect receive popular mandate to govern for a certain period of time while in the parliamentary system, the republican or monarchical regimes, the majority party in parliament is tasked to choose the first -Minister, structuring the required parliamentary majority to govern and set up his office. If the majority party cannot compose a new government, new parliamentary elections would be held. In the presidential system, can take place the elected president rule without possessing the necessary parliamentary majority, a fact that constitutes political instability factor difficult to overcome as it has been in Brazil for many years, and particularly in the current situation. Unlike the parliamentary system that enables the replacement of the incumbent government by another in times of political crisis, the presidential system hinders this type of solution given that the elected president can only be dismounted from power legally during his tenure in case of a crime committed or by force through coup d'etat.
Coups d´état are characteristic of times when political opposition groups extrapolate the legality and sometimes make use of violence to overthrow a legitimate government. Coup d´état is therefore attempting to political forces to illegally overthrow a constitutionally legitimate government. Coup d´état has this name because it is characterized by an institutional break, contrary to normal law and order and subjecting state control to people who had not been legally designated either by election, inheritance or other transition. In the most common type of coups d´état, the rebellious forces surround or hijack the seat of government, often driving, holding or even executing members of the deposed government. Taking into account the concept described above of coup d´état, it can be said that the impeachment of Rousseff cannot be characterized as such. Even the ministers and former ministers of STF- Supreme Court did not consider the impeachment as a coup d´état as they seek to characterize Dilma Rousseff, PT (Workers Party) and its allies.
Similar to Brazil's future depends on a new constituent and retaking of development (18)
Este artigo tem por objetivo demonstrar que o povo brasileiro vive o inferno representado pelas catástrofes políticas, econômicas, sociais e ambientais que estão conduzindo o País a um desastre humanitário sem precedentes em sua história de gigantescas proporções. A catástrofe política no Brasil poderá ocorrer com o fim do processo democrático resultante da escalada do fascismo na sociedade pela ação do presidente Jair Bolsonaro que busca colocar em prática sua proposta de governo tipicamente fascista baseada no culto explícito da ordem, na violência de Estado, em práticas autoritárias de governo, no desprezo social por grupos vulneráveis e fragilizados e no anticomunismo. Soma-se à catástrofe política, a catástrofe econômica caracterizada pela estagnação da economia brasileira que amarga uma recessão em 2020 agravada pela pandemia do novo coronavirus porque o PIB caiu 4,1% em relação ao de 2019, a menor taxa da série histórica, iniciada em 1996, bem como com a taxa de desemprego em patamar recorde de 14,8 milhões de pessoas em busca de emprego no País. A catástrofe social se manifesta no fato de o governo Bolsonaro nada fazer para reduzir as taxas de desemprego reativando a economia, atuar em prejuízo dos interesses dos trabalhadores promovendo medidas contra os direitos sociais da população e contribuir para o número elevado de infectados e mortos pelo coronavirus no Brasil ao sabotar o combate ao vírus. Finalmente, a catástrofe ambiental se manifesta no fato de o governo Bolsonaro contribuir para a inação de órgãos governamentais responsáveis pela fiscalização contra as agressões ao meio ambiente, abrir caminho para atividades de mineração, agricultura, pecuária e madeireira na Floresta Amazônica e afastar o Brasil do Acordo do Clima de Paris.
Cet article vise à démontrer que le peuple brésilien vit l'enfer représenté par les catastrophes politiques, économiques, sociales et environnementales qui conduisent le pays à une catastrophe humanitaire sans précédent dans son histoire aux proportions gigantesques. La catastrophe politique au Brésil pourrait survenir avec la fin du processus démocratique résultant de l'escalade du fascisme dans la société par l'action du président Jair Bolsonaro, qui cherche à mettre en pratique sa proposition de gouvernement typiquement fasciste. fondée sur le culte explicite de l'ordre, la violence d'État, les pratiques gouvernementales autoritaires, le mépris social pour les groupes vulnérables et fragiles et l'anticommunisme. Outre la catastrophe politique, la catastrophe économique caractérisée par la stagnation de l'économie brésilienne après une récession en 2020, aggravée par la nouvelle pandémie de coronavirus, car le PIB a baissé de 4,1% par rapport à 2019, le taux le plus bas du série historique, commencée en 1996, ainsi qu'avec le taux de chômage à un niveau record de 14,8 millions de personnes à la recherche d'un emploi dans le pays.La catastrophe sociale se manifeste par le fait que le gouvernement Bolsonaro ne fait rien pour réduire les taux de chômage en réactivant la économique, agissant au détriment des intérêts des travailleurs, promouvant des mesures contre les droits sociaux de la population et contribuant au nombre élevé de personnes infectées et tuées par le coronavirus au Brésil en sabotant la lutte contre le virus. Enfin, la catastrophe environnementale se manifeste par le fait que le gouvernement Bolsonaro contribue à l'inaction des agences gouvernementales chargées de surveiller les agressions contre l'environnement, ouvrant la voie aux activités minières, agricoles, d'élevage et d'exploitation forestière dans la forêt amazonienne et retirant le Brésil de l'Accord de Paris sur le climat.
Cet article a pour objectif de présenter et d'analyser le rapport du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC), agence liée à l'ONU, rendu public le 9 août 2021 à travers lequel il montre l'ensemble des connaissances acquises depuis la publication de son précédent rapport en 2014 sur le climat de la planète Terre. 234 auteurs de 66 pays ont examiné plus de 14 000 études scientifiques et leur travail a été reçu avec plus de 78 000 commentaires et observations de chercheurs et d'experts qui travaillant pour les 195 gouvernements auxquels ce travail est destiné. Ce rapport révèle une connaissance approfondie du climat passé, présent et futur de la Terre. Le résumé de ce rapport est à lire dans l'article Selon le GIEC, le changement climatique est irréversible, mais peut encore être corrigé disponible sur le site <https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/nature-environnement/climat/selon-le-giec-le-changement-climatique-s-accelere-est-irreversible-mais-peut-etre-corrige_156431>. Alors que peut-on faire pour éviter cette catastrophe climatique ? La solution est de réduire de moitié les émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre d'ici 2030 et de zéro émission nette d'ici le milieu de ce siècle pour arrêter et éventuellement inverser la hausse des températures. La réduction à zéro des émissions nettes consiste à réduire autant que possible les émissions de gaz à effet de serre en utilisant les technologies propres et les énergies renouvelables, ainsi que comme capter et stocker le carbone, ou l'absorber en plantant des arbres. Très probablement, le monde ne réussira pas à empêcher d'autres changements climatiques en raison de l'absence d'un système de gouvernance mondiale capable d'empêcher l'augmentation du réchauffement climatique et le changement climatique catastrophique résultant de l'impuissance de l'ONU.
AQUECIMENTO GLOBAL, MUDANÇA CLIMÁTICA GLOBAL E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A SAÚDE HU...Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar os impactos do aquecimento global e da consequente mudança climática sobre a saúde humana e as soluções que permitam evitar suas maléficas consequências contra a humanidade. Para alcançar este objetivo, é necessário promover uma transformação profunda da sociedade atual que tem sido extremamente destruidora das condições de vida do planeta. Diante disso, é imprescindível que seja edificada uma sociedade sustentável substituindo o atual modelo econômico dominante em todo o mundo por outro que leve em conta o homem integrado com o meio ambiente, com a natureza, ou seja, o modelo de desenvolvimento sustentável. Foi analisado o Acordo de Paris com base na COP 21 organizada pela ONU através do qual 195 países e a União Europeia definiram como a humanidade lutará contra o aquecimento global nas próximas décadas, bem como foi analisada literatura relacionada com o aquecimento global e a mudança climática para extrair as conclusões que apontam como substituir o modelo de desenvolvimento atual pelo modelo de desenvolvimento sustentável.
GLOBAL WARMING, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTHFernando Alcoforado
This article aims to present the impacts of global warming and the consequent global climate change on human health and the solutions to avoid its harmful consequences against humanity. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to promote a profound transformation of current society, which has been extremely destructive of the planet's living conditions. Therefore, it is essential to build a sustainable society, replacing the current dominant economic model throughout the world with one that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable development. The Paris Agreement was analyzed based on the COP 21 organized by the UN through which 195 countries and the European Union defined how humanity will fight global warming in the coming decades, as well as was analyzed literature related to global warming and climate change to extract the conclusions that point out how to replace the current development model with the sustainable development model.
LE RÉCHAUFFEMENT CLIMATIQUE, LE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE MONDIAL ET SES IMPACTS ...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article a pour objectif de présenter les impacts du réchauffement climatique et du changement climatique qui en découle sur la santé humaine et les solutions pour éviter ses conséquences néfastes contre l'humanité. Pour atteindre cet objectif, il est nécessaire de promouvoir une transformation profonde de la société d'aujourd'hui qui a été extrêmement destructrice des conditions de vie sur la planète. Il est donc essentiel de construire une société durable, en remplaçant le modèle économique actuel dominant à travers le monde par un autre qui prenne en compte l'homme intégré à l'environnement, à la nature, c'est-à-dire le modèle de développement durable. L'Accord de Paris a été analysé sur la base de la COP 21 organisée par l'ONU à travers laquelle 195 pays et l'Union européenne ont défini comment l'humanité luttera contre le réchauffement climatique dans les prochaines décennies, ainsi que a été analysée la littérature liée au réchauffement climatique et au changement climatique pour extraire les conclusions qui indiquent comment remplacer le modèle de développement actuel par le modèle de développement durable.
Cet article a trois objectifs : 1) démontrer qu'il y a un changement drastique du climat de la Terre grâce au réchauffement climatique, qui contribue à la survenue d'inondations dans les villes aux effets de plus en plus catastrophiques ; 2) proposer des mesures pour lutter contre le changement climatique mondial ; et 3) proposer des mesures pour préparer les villes à faire face à des événements météorologiques extrêmes. Récemment, des inondations se sont produites qui exposent la vulnérabilité des villes d'Europe et de Chine aux conditions météorologiques les plus extrêmes. Après les inondations qui ont fait des morts en Allemagne, en Belgique et en Chine, le message a été renforcé que des changements importants sont nécessaires pour préparer les villes à faire face à des événements similaires à l'avenir. Les gouvernements doivent admettre que les infrastructures qu'ils ont construites dans le passé pour les villes, même à une époque plus récente, sont vulnérables à ces phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes. Pour faire face aux inondations qui deviendront de plus en plus fréquentes, les gouvernements doivent agir simultanément dans trois directions : la première est de lutter contre le changement climatique mondial ; le second est de préparer les villes à faire face à des événements météorologiques extrêmes et le troisième est de mettre en œuvre une société durable aux niveaux national et mondial.
This article has three objectives: 1) to demonstrate that there is a drastic change in the Earth's climate thanks to global warming, which is contributing to the occurrence of floods in cities that are increasingly catastrophic in their effects; 2) propose measures to combat global climate change; and 3) propose measures to prepare cities to face extreme weather events. Recently, floods have occurred that expose the vulnerability of cities in Europe and China to the most extreme weather. After the floods that killed people in Germany, Belgium and China, the message was reinforced that significant changes are needed to prepare cities to face similar events in the future. Governments need to admit that the infrastructure they built in the past for cities, even in more recent times, is vulnerable to these extreme weather events. To deal with the floods that will become more and more frequent, governments need to act simultaneously in three directions: the first is to combat global climate change; the second is to prepare cities to face extreme weather events and the third is to implement a sustainable society at the national and global levels.
Este artigo tem três objetivos: 1) demonstrar que está havendo uma mudança drástica no clima da Terra graças ao aquecimento global que está contribuindo para a ocorrência de inundações nas cidades que se repetem de forma cada vez mais catastrófica em seus efeitos; 2) propor medidas para combater a mudança climática global; e, 3) propor medidas visando preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos climáticos extremos. Recentemente, ocorreram enchentes que expõem a vulnerabilidade das cidades da Europa e da China ao clima mais extremo. Depois das enchentes que mataram pessoas na Alemanha, Bélgica e China foi reforçada a mensagem de que são necessárias mudanças significativas para preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos similares no futuro. Os governos precisam admitir que a infraestrutura que construíram no passado para as cidades, mesmo em tempos mais recentes, é vulnerável a esses eventos de clima extremo. Para lidar com as inundações que serão cada vez mais frequentes, os governos precisam agir simultaneamente em três direções: a primeira consiste em combater a mudança climática global; a segunda consiste em preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos extremos no clima e a terceira consiste em implantar uma sociedade sustentável nas esferas nacional e global.
CIVILIZAÇÃO OU BARBÁRIE SÃO AS ESCOLHAS DO POVO BRASILEIRO NAS ELEIÇÕES DE 2022 Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo demonstrar que as eleições de 2022 são decisivas para o futuro do Brasil porque que o povo brasileiro terá que decidir entre os valores da civilização e da democracia ou os da barbárie e do fascismo defendidos pelos candidatos à Presidência da República. É preciso observar que a Civilização é considerada o estágio mais avançado que uma sociedade humana pode alcançar do ponto de vista político, econômico, social, cultural, científico e tecnológico. O contrário de civilização é a Barbárie que é a condição daquilo que é selvagem, cruel, desumano e grosseiro, ou seja, quem ou o que é tido como bárbaro que atenta contra o progresso político, econômico, social, cultural, científico e tecnológico. A barbárie sempre se caracterizou ao longo da história da humanidade por grupos que usam a força e a crueldade para alcançar seus objetivos.
CIVILISATION OU BARBARIE SONT LES CHOIX DU PEUPLE BRÉSILIEN AUX ÉLECTIONS DE ...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à démontrer que les élections de 2022 sont décisives pour l'avenir du Brésil car le peuple brésilien devra trancher entre les valeurs de civilisation et de démocratie ou celles de barbarie et de fascisme défendues par les candidats à la Présidence de la République. Il convient de noter que la civilisation est considérée comme le stade le plus avancé qu'une société humaine puisse atteindre d'un point de vue politique, économique, social, culturel, scientifique et technologique. Le contraire de la civilisation est la barbarie, qui est la condition de ce qui est sauvage, cruel, inhumain et grossier, c'est-à-dire qui ou ce qui est considéré comme barbare qui attaque le progrès politique, économique, social, culturel, scientifique et technologique. La barbarie a toujours été caractérisée tout au long de l'histoire de l'humanité par des groupes qui utilisent la force et la cruauté pour atteindre leurs objectifs.
CIVILIZATION OR BARBARISM ARE THE CHOICES OF THE BRAZILIAN PEOPLE IN THE 2022...Fernando Alcoforado
This article aims to demonstrate that the 2022 elections are decisive for the future of Brazil because the Brazilian people will have to decide between the values of civilization and democracy or those of barbarism and fascism defended by candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. It should be noted that Civilization is considered the most advanced stage that a human society can reach from a political, economic, social, cultural, scientific and technological point of view. The opposite of civilization is Barbarism, which is the condition of what is savage, cruel, inhuman and coarse, that is, who or what is considered barbaric that attacks political, economic, social, cultural, scientific and technological progress. Barbarism has always been characterized throughout human history by groups that use force and cruelty to achieve their goals.
COMO EVITAR A PREVISÃO DE STEPHEN HAWKING DE QUE A HUMANIDADE SÓ TEM MAIS 100...Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar o que foi dito pelo falecido cientista Stephen Hawking que afirmou em 2018 que a espécie humana poderia ser levada à extinção em 100 anos e que, devido a isto, forçaria os seres humanos a saírem da Terra, bem como demonstrar que as ameaças de extinção da espécie humana citadas por Hawking podem ser enfrentadas sem que haja a necessidade de fuga de seres humanos da Terra.
COMMENT ÉVITER LA PRÉVISION DE STEPHEN HAWKING QUE L'HUMANITÉ N'A QUE 100 ANS...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à présenter ce qu'a dit le regretté scientifique Stephen Hawking qui a déclaré en 2018 que l'espèce humaine pourrait être amenée à l'extinction dans 100 ans et que, de ce fait, il forcerait les êtres humains à quitter la Terre, ainsi que démontrer que les menaces d'extinction de l'espèce humaine citées par Hawking peuvent être affrontées sans que les êtres humains aient besoin de s'échapper de la Terre.
Today the French Revolution is commemorated, which was a dividing mark in the history of humanity, starting the contemporary age. It was such an important event that its ideals influenced many movements around the world.
On commémore aujourd'hui la Révolution française, qui a marqué l'histoire de l'humanité en commençant l'ère contemporaine. C'était un événement si important que ses idéaux ont influencé de nombreux mouvements à travers le monde.
Hoje é comemorada a Revolução Francesa que foi um marco divisório da história da humanidade dando início à idade contemporânea. Foi um acontecimento tão importante que seus ideais influenciaram vários movimentos ao redor do mundo.
O TARIFAÇO DE ENERGIA É SINAL DE INCOMPETÊNCIA DO GOVERNO FEDERAL NO PLANEJAM...Fernando Alcoforado
É bastante evidente o descalabro do setor elétrico do Brasil. O planejamento eficaz do setor elétrico é aquele que deve ser desenvolvido com vários anos de antecedência e baseado em estudos técnicos e econômicos. A gestão competente tem que ser baseada no planejamento de longo prazo e com visão sistêmica que está faltando ao governo Bolsonaro. Sem a cultura do planejamento e a não utilização de profissionais competentes nas ações do governo federal, o resultado só poderia ser o que vem se registrando no setor elétrico que está ameaçado de “apagões” e de racionamento de energia elétrica.
LES RÉVOLUTIONS SOCIALES, LEURS FACTEURS DÉCLENCHEURS ET LE BRÉSIL ACTUELFernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à analyser les facteurs déclencheurs des révolutions sociales qui se sont produites tout au long de l'histoire de l'humanité et à évaluer la possibilité de leur occurrence dans le Brésil contemporain.
SOCIAL REVOLUTIONS, THEIR TRIGGERS FACTORS AND CURRENT BRAZILFernando Alcoforado
This article aims to analyze the triggering factors of social revolutions that have occurred throughout human history and assess the possibility of their occurrence in contemporary Brazil.
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
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In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
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‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
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Brazil's future depends on a new constituent and retaking of development
1. 1
BRAZIL'S FUTURE DEPENDS ON A NEW CONSTITUENT AND RETAKING
OF DEVELOPMENT
Fernando Alcoforado *
The scoreboard of impeachment in the Senate shows that 37 senators are in favor of
impeachment, 18 against, 4 weren´t found, 15 not responded and 7 are undecided
(http://infograficos.estadao.com.br/politica/placar-do -impeachment senators /). Dilma
Rousseff to be removed from the presidency of the Republic is required 54 senators
favorable. This means that 17 senators are needed for the impeachment to be victorious
and Michel Temer becomes definitively in the presidency of Republic until 2018. The
return of Dilma Rousseff to power would mean an affront to the majority of Brazilian
society that for the most part (68 % according to Datafolha survey) support
impeachment.
The return of Dilma Rousseff to power would mean lead Brazil to the total
ungovernability considering she does not have the support of the economically
dominant class (bourgeoisie), do not count on a broad support policy based on
Parliament for the approval of their legislative projects and having a rejection of 68% of
the population. To be governability, the government must be able to carry out
governmental policies with the support of the ruling classes, the population and the
Parliament. Dilma Rousseff gathers not any of these conditions. After the impeachment
of Dilma Rousseff, Michel Temer took office facing also governability issues. From the
governability tripod, he has the support of the dominant social classes (bourgeoisie) and
the majority of Parliament and is rejected by the majority of the population as much as
Dilma Rousseff.
The Michel Temer governability condition is at the time greatest of the Dilma Rousseff
that does not have any support. To sustain in power, Michel Temer is making
concessions to the ruling classes and the members of Parliament because hardly win the
support of the vast majority of the population that will only occur with the retaking of
economic development when would provide the high levels of employment and income
the members of the middle class and the urban and rural proletariat. Michel Temer
government is faced, however, with immense difficulties to promote the retaking of
development which will require a long time.
Very rarely, the Brazilian economy will be reactivated in its growth in a unstable
political environment as the current because lacks to Michel Temer the confidence of
the nation because he is also next to Dilma Rousseff, co-responsible for the political and
administrative debacle of Brazil. This situation adds to the fact that Michel Temer be
rejected as Dilma Rousseff by the population, making he unable to demand people's
sacrifices to take the necessary hard measures to overcome the economic crisis that will
affect the interests, particularly of the middle class and urban and rural proletariat that
will tend to rebel making ungovernable the country. For these reasons, the
ungovernability, which is the domain of the disorder, will be inevitable in Michel Temer
government.
The return to power of Dilma Rousseff would mean to transform Brazil into a political
"hell" of large proportions, that is, in a place of deep darkness, a place of utter despair
and no hope of salvation. Hell term is used by different religions representing the place
of great suffering and condemnation. The origin of the term is Latin: infernum, meaning
"the depths" or "underworld". The permanence of Michel Temer in power would mean
2. 2
to transform Brazil into a "purgatory" that, according to the Catholic Church is a place
of purification to get the necessary holiness and enter in Paradise. This analogy of the
Dilma Rousseff government with the "hell" and Michel Temer government with the
"purgatory" reminds us of the Divine Comedy of Dante Alighieri which chronicles his
odyssey through Hell, Purgatory and Paradise describing each step of the journey with
little visual details.
Dante, the personage of the story, is guided through hell and purgatory by the Roman
poet Virgil and in the sky by Beatriz, muse in several of his works. Dante's figure can be
linked to the Brazilian people who went through hell with the Dilma Rousseff
government and is in purgatory with the Michel Temer government. Out of hell (Dilma
Rousseff government), Dante (Brazilian people) is faced with an extremely high
mountain: Purgatory (Michel Temer government). In purgatory (Michel Temer
government), Dante (Brazilian people) follows accompanied by an angel that leads to
paradise. The question that is put to the Brazilian people is how to evolve from
purgatory (Michel Temer government) to paradise that would happen with the country
economically and socially progress on a new basis.
The path that can lead to "paradise" represented by the economic and social progress in
Brazil requires the overcoming of political and economic crises that threaten the future
of Brazil. Overcoming the political crisis requires the convening of a National
Constituent Assembly Exclusive to reorder the national life before the collapse of the
political system in force in Brazil. Therefore, there must be the resignation of the
president of Republic (Michel Temer and Dilma Rousseff if she did not suffer
impeachment) and a provisional government headed by President of the Supreme Court
that is the only institution that still deserves respect the nation consists to convene the
Constituent Assembly Exclusive.
The Constituent Assembly Exclusive would aim: 1) to carry out the reform of the
country's political system with the institutionalization of the district vote and reducing
the number of parliamentarians and their stewardships in federal parliaments, state and
municipal, among other measures; 2) to promote the reform of the State and Public
Administration on a new basis; 3) to ban political parties and parliamentarians
committed to corruption; 4) to form new political parties after the new Constituent; and,
5) to call new general elections in the country, among other measures. The Exclusive
Constituent Assembly to be convened should institute also parliamentarism and decide
by the end of the Senate with the institutionalization of the unicameral system. Hold
new presidential elections without a new Constituent Assembly, as some political forces
want, it means keeping the morass of corruption that dominates Brazilian politics.
To overcome the economic crisis, it is necessary to adopt the following measures: 1)
retaking of development investing R$ 2 trillion in economic infrastructure (ports - R$
42.9 billion, railways - R$ 130.8 billion, highways - R$ 811.7 billion, waterways and
river ports - R$ 10.9 billion, airports - R$ 9.3 billion, electricity sector - R$ 293.9
billion, oil and gas - R$ 75.3 billion, sanitation- R$ 270 billion and telecommunications
- R$ 19.7 billion) and social infrastructure (health sector - R$ 83 billion / year, the
education sector - R$ 16.9 billion / year and the public housing sector - R$ 160 billion)
through public-private partnership; 2) sharp reduction in short and long-term interest
rates to encourage investment in productive activities; 3) transformation of Brazil into a
platform for exports; 4) reintroduction of market reserve in areas considered strategic
for national development; 5) Input and outflow flow control of capital to prevent
3. 3
currency evasion and to restrict access of speculative capital in the country; 6) the
adoption of fixed exchange rate policy to replace the floating exchange rate linked to
exchange bands in place to contribute to the stability of the Brazilian economy and raise
the competitiveness of Brazil's exports; 7) marked reduction of the Selic rate to reduce
the burden of payment of the public debt; 8) audit of the public debt; and 9)
renegotiation of the public debt payment with the elongation of its payment on time.
* Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).