The document discusses Brazil's political impasse, highlighting the country's increasing political instability and economic crisis under Dilma Rousseff's administration. It outlines four potential scenarios for the future, ranging from Rousseff remaining in power despite dwindling popularity to the emergence of a new government capable of drafting a new constitution to address systemic issues. Ultimately, the author argues that the resolution of Brazil's political and institutional challenges hinges on civil society mobilization towards a new constitutional assembly.

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THE GIGANTIC POLITICAL IMPASSE OF BRAZIL AND ITS FUTURE
SCENARIOS
Fernando Alcoforado *
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian
economic crisis has structural roots and is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government
does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The lack of strategic
vision and managerial incompetence are the top brands in the Rousseff administration.
The Brazil operates as a "Titanic" going toward the "iceberg" of depression without the
federal government to take the necessary steps to avoid disaster. The Brazil has been
governed for decades by incompetent people without strategic vision and no effective
prospect of sustainable growth for the country.
The Brazilian government’s failure is manifested not only in solving today's problems,
but above all by compromising the future of the nation. Time works against the Dilma
Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in
acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent
research DataFolha. The share of the population who believes the government of Dilma
Rousseff is optimum and good fell from 42% in December 2014 to 23% in February
2015. In the same period, the share who said he thought the government bad and very
bad fell from 24% to 44 %. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff
government that is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their
economic decisions in the post-election period: increase in taxes, temporary blocking
spending, more expensive energy with cutting energy subsidies for electric sector and
changes in the rules of social benefits. Given the worsening of the current situation and
the fall of acceptance of the Rousseff administration by the Brazilian population and no
solution prospects of the current problems in Brazil can be considered that the country
will be faced with the following scenarios described:
Scenario 1 - Dilma Rousseff remains in power until the end of his term despite the
worsening economic situation of the country and its increasing loss of popularity.
Maintaining Dilma Rousseff in power would result from the restoration of the alliance
of the PT with the governing coalition parties in Congress, large government grants to
domestic and foreign capitalist sectors and agribusiness and extension of social benefits
to the poorest sections of the population. If the Brazilian people have no ability to
change this setting with large street demonstrations, will have to wait for the next 2018
presidential elections to try to change the current reality. Scenario 1 cannot occur if the
economic crisis get worse with further decline in economic growth, rampant inflation
and mass unemployment, increasing in mass movements in defense of people's interests
and the operation Lava Jato that clears Petrobras corruption incriminate Dilma Rousseff
who would be removed from power through impeachment proceedings which result
Scenario 2.
Scenario 2 - Rise of Vice President Michel Temer and the PMDB (Party of Brazilian
Democratic Movement) to power due to the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff if she it is
incriminated in Operation Lava Jato. Brazil's situation would not be modified with the
PMDB in power because the members of this party are also responsible for the way the
country has been governed for decades by incompetent people without strategic vision
and no effective prospect of sustainable growth for the country. In addition, Michel
Temer do not have enough stature, does not have political conditions and has no
leadership and managerial competence to deal with the economic and political crisis that

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tends to grow over time. Mass movements in defense of the interests of the population
will continue growing with the evolution of the economic crisis and the federal
government will continue helpless in solving national problems and in meeting social
demands. Given the federal government inability to maintain political and social order,
there would be intervention of the armed forces fulfilling its constitutional mission.
Michel Temer resigns to facilitate a solution to the political and institutional crisis, a
fact that would lead to the emergence of Scenario 3.
Scenario 3 - Michel Temer Replacement with the rise to power of President of the
Chamber of Deputies, Eduardo Cunha, who would form an interim government of
national unity to ease social tensions and political and institutional crisis that would
convene a National Constituent Assembly for the construction a new social pact in
Brazil laying the basis for a new coexistence among sectors of civil society and of her
with the Brazilian state. The new constitution of Brazil would be developed through a
Constituent Assembly that would not be composed of the current members of Congress.
Its members would be elected by the people with the sole mission to prepare new
Constitution. The new Constitution would have the role of building a new political and
administrative order in Brazil that leads to end existing economic devastation in the
country since 1990 with the introduction of neoliberal economic model and the ethical
collapse, political and administrative current that generates the rampant corruption and
misappropriation of public funds.
Scenario 4 - Realization of the National Constituent Assembly and call for new
elections. The political and legal superstructure of a nation is based on a social contract,
that is, a social pact, a Constitution that guides not only the government, but especially
the society. Made the pact between individuals is that establishing a government
contract. Therefore, the government is governed by the social pact and not the opposite.
The need for new Constitution is necessary because the current Constitution lost all
plausibility, because the system of representative government is in crisis. First because
the presidential system in place does not offer the possibility that occurs in
parliamentary system to change the government in times of crisis and the current system
of representative democracy does not offer the practical possibilities of real citizen
participation in government decisions with the institute of the referendum and the
plebiscite and does not represent anyone but the bureaucratic machine of parties and the
economic power holders.
Currently, Brazil is not faced with a picture of impending political and institutional
breakdown. But if everything continues as is, with the failure of representative
democracy in place and the possibility of worsening economic crisis in the country,
Brazil may be faced with the advent of a new dictatorship to put "house in order", with
unforeseeable consequences. There is no way to change the reality experienced by
Brazil in the political and administrative field unless the mobilization of civil society in
order to develop a new Constitution to avoid a political and institutional breakdown in
the country and build a new political and administrative radically democratic based on
ethics and development for the benefit of the entire population.
From the foregoing, it can be concluded that the giant Brazil's political impasse at the
moment will only be effectively resolved with the convening of a new Constituent
Assembly to order the national life on a new basis. Only then can cause the current
economic crisis can be resolved and are avoided corruption scandals that continuously
succeed in modern times involving all branches of government in Brazil and more

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recently Petrobras. Only then can cope with the failure of representative democracy in
the country that shows clear signs of exhaustion not only by corruption scandals in the
powers of the Republic, but especially to discourage popular participation, reducing
political activity the electoral processes that are repeated periodically in which the
people elect their representatives which, with few exceptions, after the elections come to
defend interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected
them.
Fernando Alcoforado , member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011)
and Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012),
among others.