Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy to stagflation, the policy and managerial inability of the federal government to manage the destinies of the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country is being put on the agenda the possibility of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff's. Currently, there is a national clamor for the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment or a military intervention.

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POLITICAL SCENARIOS OF BRAZIL AFTER DILMA ROUSSEFF
GOVERNMENT
Fernando Alcoforado *
Brazil is experiencing at the present critical times in its history that can compromise
their future as a nation. The current situation in Brazil is catastrophic because the
country is already facing the problem of stagflation which translates into negative
economic growth, downturn in the consumer market, the drop in income of the
population and escalating inflation and unemployment. Stagflation is a term used in
economics that indicates a situation that can occur reducing the economic growth and
simultaneously increase in the general price level. When the country reaches the state of
stagflation, it also establishes social chaos.
With the ongoing fiscal adjustment which is limiting the growth of the Brazilian
economy, the slowdown of the Brazilian economy will be aggravated by the global
economic slowdown whose effect internally will be more economic contraction. Brazil
is caught in a trap of stagflation characterized by low economic growth and high
inflation. Everything indicates that the growth of Brazil's GDP will be negative in 2015
and 2016 and inflation will remain above 8% per year. The external environment is of
economic stagnation in Europe and Japan, economic slowdown in China and meager
economic growth in the United States that compromise the performance of export
earnings in Brazil.
What has just been described coincides with the existence of a weak government like
that of Dilma Rousseff who, despite winning the last elections, does not have the
leadership and the necessary competence to carry out the changes required for Brazil at
the current time, in addition to becoming hostage to holders of national and
international finance capital as evidenced by the appointment of the Finance minister
Joaquim Levy and the PMDB with the appointment of Vice-President Michel Temer as
political coordinator of government in Brazilian Congress.
To face the crisis, the Brazilian government should present a consistent economic
program that had credibility and contributed to a reversal in the wave of pessimistic
expectations that has affected consumers and business across the board. The crisis
which led to deindustrialization in Brazil for many years, should also extend to trade
and agribusiness. The economic downturn associated with the general increase of prices
is catastrophic for the vast majority of the population because, besides increasing
unemployment, reduce your purchasing power. It would be formed in this way, the
culture broth to the increase of social stresses in Brazil. The catastrophic economic
situation tends to lead Brazil to social chaos.
Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy to stagflation, the policy
and managerial inability of the federal government to manage the destinies of the nation
and the widespread corruption that dominates the country is being put on the agenda the
possibility of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff's. Currently, there is a national
clamor for the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through
impeachment or a military intervention. There are three major threats to the permanence
of Dilma Rousseff in power: 1) the growing worsening of the economic crisis; 2) their
relationship deteriorated to the National Congress, especially with leaders of the
PMDB; 3) the disgust of 91% of the population against her government; and, 3) the trial

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by the TCU (Court Union Accounts) of the acts that constitute the crime of Fiscal
Responsibility Law of government Dilma Rousseff in 2014.
The removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency may occur in two ways: 1) respecting
the constitutional legality if it may be proven her involvement in Lava Jato corruption
process of Petrobras or his government have disrespected the Fiscal Responsibility Law;
and 2) outside the constitutional legality, if the social chaos resulting of the crisis lead to
a Hobbesian solution with the establishment of a dictatorship to maintain political and
social order.
There are three political scenarios of Brazilian crisis which are described below:
Scenario 1- Despite the worsening social tensions due to the aggravation of economic
crisis and of the unpopularity of Dilma Rousseff government, she manages to stay quite
fragile in power. The PT government will continue dying in power what makes Dilma
Rousseff become increasingly unable to keep ahead of the nation's destiny. Millions of
Brazilians do not see conditions to the current government overcome the crisis. This
will feed the mass movement by impeachment or by deposition of Dilma Rousseff
through military intervention as a solution to the current crisis. With the evolution of
time, this scenario tends to evolve for Scenario 2.
Scenario 2- Social tensions rise due to the aggravation of the economic crisis which
grow irresistibly as to render inevitable the deposition of Dilma Rousseff that happens
thanks to pressure from civil society and the need to avoid a Hobbesian solution to face
social chaos. With the deposition of Dilma Rousseff, Vice President Michel Temer
takes over building a government of national coalition similar of Itamar Franco
government after the deposition of Fernando Collor for governance. With the evolution
of the economic crisis and before the impotence of the federal government in solving
national problems and in meeting the social demands can emerge Scenario 3.
Scenario 3 - In the face of the federal government's inability to resolve the crisis and
maintain social and political order as well as the crisis of representative democracy in
Brazil, future President Michel Temer convene a new National Constituent Assembly to
reorder the national life. The convening of a new constituent would be imperative to
deal with the failure of representative democracy in Brazil and through it promote the
restructuring of the national economy and the reform of the State and Public
Administration of Brazil.
*Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).

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