In 2016, Brazil faces significant economic, political, and social crises characterized by a declining economy, high inflation, and corruption at various government levels. The potential removal of President Dilma Rousseff incites political tensions, with fears of violence and social unrest among opposing factions, while calls for a national unity government intensify. Without immediate and effective leadership, Brazil risks further deterioration leading to bankruptcy and chaos.

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BRAZIL IN 2016 RUINED AND CONVULSED
Fernando Alcoforado *
Signs of economic, political and social ruination are already present in Brazil indicating
the strong possibility of the country to be convulsed in 2016 by the confrontation
between the political forces interested in the removal of Dilma Rousseff of power and
those who fight for their stay in the Presidency of the Republic. On the level of the
Brazilian economy, the economic system in force in Brazil shows clear signs of
exhaustion because the country had a negative economic growth in 2015 (minus 3.5%)
towards depression, inflation rate above 10% in 2015, unemployment mass (10 million
unemployed in 2015), widespread business failure (51.4% micro and small enterprises,
22.2% of mid-sized companies and 26.4% of large companies), industrialization (33%
of GDP in the decade 1980. and 10% of GDP in 2015), extreme precariousness of
public education and health services and logistical bottleneck. The forecast is that the
economy fell from 2.5% to 3% in 2016. With inflation eroding the purchasing power of
households and the corporate bankruptcy, unemployment, more concentrated in 2015 in
the industrial sector and construction, must now achieve with intensity the service sector
and trade. Brazil can lose up to 2.2 million formal job vacancies in 2016. The general
expectation in Brazil is that only a radical change in government will be able to contain
the spread of the economic crisis.
Politically, Brazil is faced with a flagrant demoralization of its political institutions,
given we have a coalition presidential system moved by corruption that came into being
from the Constituent Assembly of 1988 and proves to be unable to resolve the serious
political crisis in that the country is experiencing at the moment. In addition, the main
leaders of Congress and many lawmakers are demoralized by responding to corruption
cases. Representative democracy in Brazil shows clear signs of exhaustion not only by
corruption scandals in the branches of government, but above all to discourage popular
participation, reducing political activity to electoral processes that are periodically
repeated in which the people elect their representatives the which, with few exceptions,
after the elections come to defend interests of economic groups in opposition to the
interests of those who elected them. In overcoming the current economic crisis, the
obstacle represented by the presidential political system in place adds to the political
and administrative incompetence of Dilma Rousseff as President of the Republic.
The difficulty of ensuring the governance of the Brazilian nation in presidential system
gives rise of propositions and actions of coup d’état by force the current holders of
power and constitutionally, through impeachment. Clearly, if there parliamentarism in
Brazil, it would be easier the country to be out of the current impasse with the
replacement of a Congress run by corrupts and corrupt and incompetent government
like the present to call new parliamentary elections. The institutional impasse in which
the Brazilian nation lives calls into question the future of the country whose solution
will not come in the short term. The economic crisis and the political-institutional crisis,
combined, are ruining most families, businesses and the very country that may lead to
dissatisfaction of broad social sectors and create a situation characterized by economic
and social chaos that could only be resolved by a strong central government, that is,
with the establishment of a dictatorial system that needs to be avoided at all costs.
The stagnation of the Brazilian economy makes, in addition to widespread corporate
bankruptcy and mass unemployment, occurs also government revenues fall at all levels
implying no public resources for investment in sufficient quantity to invest in economic

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and social infrastructure and to meet their most basic needs that are already taking place
in all parts of the country. Most likely, no domestic and foreign investor will invest in
Brazil with a stagnant economy as it stands at the moment and with a government
besieged by its population as of Dilma Rousseff. Brazil already had its downgraded
credit ratings by Standard & Poor's agencies (S & P) and Fitch causing the country to
lose good paying status, a fact that should result in capital flight from the country and
the impracticability of attracting foreign capital for investment.
It seems that in 2016, Brazil will be politically convulsed with the confrontation
between supporters and opponents of the current government. There are manifestations
on social networks of political forces supporting the Dilma Rousseff government
admitting the possibility to practice of violence against their opponents in the event of
her removal from power. This may make that occur also street clashes that may require
the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order. The
Dilma Rousseff hold on power may also lead to the path of violence of political forces
that oppose the current government. In other words, whether to dismiss or stay in power
Dilma Rousseff, Brazil will be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable
consequences. To prevent Brazil to be brought to bankruptcy and social upheaval, the
constitution of an interim government of national unity would be necessary to convene a
constituent assembly to reorder the national life after which they would be held new
elections in the country. It is indisputable that serious problems faced by Brazil at the
moment in the economic and political spheres are demanding a ruler who has accepted
the vast majority of the population and ability to unite the nation around a common
project of national development.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 76, Bahia Academy member for Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning energy systems, is the
author Globalization of books (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), From the Collor FHC- Brazil and Nova
(Des) World order (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), A Project for Brazil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo,
2000), The determinants of the development of the State of Bahia (PhD Thesis. University of Barcelona,
http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalization and Development (Editora Nobel,
São Paulo, 2006 ), Bahia- Development of the sixteenth century to the twentieth century and Strategic
Objectives in the Era Contemporary (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the
Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Global Warming and Disaster Planetary (P
& A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Sustainable Amazon to Brazil's progress and combating global
warming (Vienna-Publishing and Printing, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), The Determinants
Factors of Economic and Social Development (Publisher CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and Energy in the World
and Brazil- Energy and Climate Change Catastrophic in the XXI Century (Editor CRV, Curitiba, 2015).