William Shakespeare, English poet and playwright, considered the greatest writer in the English language and the most influential playwright in the world, is author in his theatrical play King Lear of the phrase "What a terrible this time where idiots drive unseeing”. This phrase applies perfectly to Brazil of the contemporary era in which we find the existence of idiots, ie rulers devoid of intelligence and common sense in the nation's command driving unseeing, that is, the incompetent members of government structure that already are leading the country to bankruptcy.
The continuity of the situation currently experienced by Brazil in the State and civil society is unsustainable paving the way for a time of catastrophe in the country. The crisis in the Brazilian economy that threatens to take her to collapse adds to the water crisis in especially São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro and the electricity sector crisis with the threat of "blackouts" tends to produce social tensions and irresistible political radicalization. Four alternative futures can result in Brazil with the evolution of economic, social and political-institutional crisis: 1) the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff with proof of his involvement in Petrobras corruption; 2) the resignation of Dilma Rousseff before the national rejection by their hold on power and its replacement by Vice President Michel Temer; 3) the joint resignation of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer and the formation of an interim government of national unity that would have the task of convening a new Constituent Assembly and, after this, new general elections; and, 4) the deposition.of current in power by the military to order convulsed national life.
Brazil is facing a political-institutional problem difficult to solve because the ruler (Dilma Rousseff) cannot rule as before and who is ruled (most of the population) does not accept being ruled as before. The worsening economic situation in Brazil and the inability of Dilma Rousseff government to overcome the crisis and to govern in harmony with the will of the majority of the population makes this situation is brought to a gigantic impasse between the state and civil society that will only be ultimately resolved with a military intervention as proposed by some or impeachment or resignation of Dilma Rousseff.
Brazil's economic scenario after 2015 is catastrophic because the country will be faced with the problem of stagflation meaning the negative economic growth, the retraction of the consumer market, the decline in income of the population and escalating of inflation and unemployment. Stagflation is a term used in economics that indicates, in short, a situation that may result in reduction of economic growth and simultaneously increase in the general price level. When the country reaches the state of stagflation, is established also social chaos.
The economic deceleration associated with the general increase in prices is catastrophic for the vast majority of the population because, besides increasing unemployment, reduce your purchasing power. It would be formed in this way, the culture broth to the increase of social stresses in Brazil. The catastrophic economic situation tends to lead Brazil to social chaos, and therefore to three alternative scenarios of development of the crisis, as described in this article.
Political scenarios of brazil after dilma rousseff governmentFernando Alcoforado
Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy to stagflation, the policy and managerial inability of the federal government to manage the destinies of the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country is being put on the agenda the possibility of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff's. Currently, there is a national clamor for the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment or a military intervention.
Just as the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency of Republicl and Lula arrest for corruption may increase political violence in Brazil, the same can happen with the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in power. In other words, either with dismissal or stay in power Dilma Rousseff, Brazil may be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences. To prevent Brazil to be brought to social upheaval would require the establishment of a provisional government composed of respectable public figures uncompromised of political forces in confrontation that would have the mandate to convene a new constituent assembly to reorganize the national life, seek consensus country in the solution of economic and social crisis, prevent the escalation of violence in Brazil and hold new general elections in the country. This would be the way to avoid a fratricidal struggle or a civil war in Brazil. If not is formed a provisional government composed of respectable public figures uncompromised of political forces in confrontation able to order the national life, there will only be one outcome to the institutional impasse in which lives the Brazilian nation that is the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order.
Dilma rousseff government is factor of political and institutional instabilit...Fernando Alcoforado
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has the support of the vast majority of the population and its different social classes, in addition to having parliamentary majority to implement its policies. To have governance, the government must meet the demands of different social classes to get the support of civil society and should have the support of political parties in Parliament for the approval of their legislative proposals. In short, governance relates to government policy capacity to decide, enabling the execution of public policies. Dilma Rousseff does not meet any of these conditions to govern the Brazilian nation.
Political conciliation and political confrontation in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Just as the removal of Dilma Rousseff of presidential power and Lula arrest for corruption may increase political violence in Brazil, the same can happen with the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in power. In other words, either with Dilma Rousseff dismissal or stay in power, Brazil may be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences. The greater the delay in the solution of economic, political and institutional problems of Brazil the larger will be the chance of political violence become more virulent that will result civil disobedience by political forces that feel affected in this process.
The continuity of the situation currently experienced by Brazil in the State and civil society is unsustainable paving the way for a time of catastrophe in the country. The crisis in the Brazilian economy that threatens to take her to collapse adds to the water crisis in especially São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro and the electricity sector crisis with the threat of "blackouts" tends to produce social tensions and irresistible political radicalization. Four alternative futures can result in Brazil with the evolution of economic, social and political-institutional crisis: 1) the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff with proof of his involvement in Petrobras corruption; 2) the resignation of Dilma Rousseff before the national rejection by their hold on power and its replacement by Vice President Michel Temer; 3) the joint resignation of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer and the formation of an interim government of national unity that would have the task of convening a new Constituent Assembly and, after this, new general elections; and, 4) the deposition.of current in power by the military to order convulsed national life.
Brazil is facing a political-institutional problem difficult to solve because the ruler (Dilma Rousseff) cannot rule as before and who is ruled (most of the population) does not accept being ruled as before. The worsening economic situation in Brazil and the inability of Dilma Rousseff government to overcome the crisis and to govern in harmony with the will of the majority of the population makes this situation is brought to a gigantic impasse between the state and civil society that will only be ultimately resolved with a military intervention as proposed by some or impeachment or resignation of Dilma Rousseff.
Brazil's economic scenario after 2015 is catastrophic because the country will be faced with the problem of stagflation meaning the negative economic growth, the retraction of the consumer market, the decline in income of the population and escalating of inflation and unemployment. Stagflation is a term used in economics that indicates, in short, a situation that may result in reduction of economic growth and simultaneously increase in the general price level. When the country reaches the state of stagflation, is established also social chaos.
The economic deceleration associated with the general increase in prices is catastrophic for the vast majority of the population because, besides increasing unemployment, reduce your purchasing power. It would be formed in this way, the culture broth to the increase of social stresses in Brazil. The catastrophic economic situation tends to lead Brazil to social chaos, and therefore to three alternative scenarios of development of the crisis, as described in this article.
Political scenarios of brazil after dilma rousseff governmentFernando Alcoforado
Before the deep economic crisis that leads to Brazil's economy to stagflation, the policy and managerial inability of the federal government to manage the destinies of the nation and the widespread corruption that dominates the country is being put on the agenda the possibility of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff's. Currently, there is a national clamor for the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment or a military intervention.
Just as the removal of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency of Republicl and Lula arrest for corruption may increase political violence in Brazil, the same can happen with the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in power. In other words, either with dismissal or stay in power Dilma Rousseff, Brazil may be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences. To prevent Brazil to be brought to social upheaval would require the establishment of a provisional government composed of respectable public figures uncompromised of political forces in confrontation that would have the mandate to convene a new constituent assembly to reorganize the national life, seek consensus country in the solution of economic and social crisis, prevent the escalation of violence in Brazil and hold new general elections in the country. This would be the way to avoid a fratricidal struggle or a civil war in Brazil. If not is formed a provisional government composed of respectable public figures uncompromised of political forces in confrontation able to order the national life, there will only be one outcome to the institutional impasse in which lives the Brazilian nation that is the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order.
Dilma rousseff government is factor of political and institutional instabilit...Fernando Alcoforado
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has the support of the vast majority of the population and its different social classes, in addition to having parliamentary majority to implement its policies. To have governance, the government must meet the demands of different social classes to get the support of civil society and should have the support of political parties in Parliament for the approval of their legislative proposals. In short, governance relates to government policy capacity to decide, enabling the execution of public policies. Dilma Rousseff does not meet any of these conditions to govern the Brazilian nation.
Political conciliation and political confrontation in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Just as the removal of Dilma Rousseff of presidential power and Lula arrest for corruption may increase political violence in Brazil, the same can happen with the permanence of Dilma Rousseff in power. In other words, either with Dilma Rousseff dismissal or stay in power, Brazil may be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences. The greater the delay in the solution of economic, political and institutional problems of Brazil the larger will be the chance of political violence become more virulent that will result civil disobedience by political forces that feel affected in this process.
Costs of stay in power of current rulers in brazil and the benefits of their ...Fernando Alcoforado
Currently, there is a national outcry by the remoteness of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment, resignation or through military intervention. To be impeachment is necessary that the head of the executive branch commits a violation, such as abuse of power, responsibility for crime, common crime and violation of the Constitution or lost the confidence of the nation and for reasons of state. If it´s not possible to fit Dilma Rousseff in crime of abuse of power, crime of responsibility and common crime, there is only the loss of confidence of the nation by the fact that she practiced electoral larceny or be reasons of state to avoid economic and social disaster that would result for their hold on power.
Today, Brazil is a country divided between PT (Worker Party) and anti PT which resulted in the last presidential elections. Based on the results of the presidential elections in its second round, it appears that the supporters of PT represent 40% (Dilma Rousseff voters). The difference (60%) is the placement of the PT opponents who do not accept the policy pursued by that party and its leaders in the conduction of the nation's destiny. The existence of a divided and radicalized country that registers today becomes difficult to Dilma Rousseff to perform her task to rule Brazil. The permanence of the PT in power with the victory of Dilma Rousseff in the second round of elections constitutes an institutional political instability factor because without the support of the vast majority of the nation she has lost her condition to govern Brazil. Dilma Rousseff became a copy of Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, facing serious problems of governance in their deeply divided country. The governance of a country by a ruler's legitimacy depends not only of the victory in the presidential elections, but fundamentally in the active support of the vast majority of the nation.
How to strengthen the movement by impeachment of dilma rousseff in brazilFernando Alcoforado
It is evident the growing deterioration of social movements in favor of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. This deterioration would be motivated by the political difficulties of carrying out impeachment in Congress and legal barriers within the Supreme Court. There is evidence that it is not enough conduct street movements as a strategy to pressure the National Congress and the Supreme Court seeking the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. This strategy has to be coupled with actions that lead to extensive occupation of public buildings and the convening of a general strike throughout the country to demand the resignation or impeachment of Dilma Rousseff as president of the Republic.
Pt workers party and demoralization of the left in brazilFernando Alcoforado
All the facts of the recent history of Brazil are leading to discredit the PT and the left forces that give you political support. It is confirmed in practice the theory of Immanuel Wallerstein presented in its work Utopística ou as Decisões Históricas do Século Vinte e Um (Utopianism or the Historic Decisions of the Twenty-first Century) (Editora Vozes. Petrópolis, 1998) that "the main element that led to the people to put away of these parties was the disappointment, one feeling that these parties had had a historic opportunity, which had obtained support based on a strategy of two steps to transform the world (take state power, then transform it), and they had not fulfilled its historic promise. This Wallerstein thesis applies entirely to contemporary Brazil. After having failed in Brazil management by bringing it to bankruptcy and not having met the expectations of the majority of the population, PT and its leftist parties allies are desperately fighting for power maintenance claiming that their opponents are coup plotters when, in fact, who is sponsor of the coup d´état is Lula supported by PT and its left-wing parties allied with the rise of the former president to the ministry of Dilma Rousseff that turn her into "queen of England", that is, all power would be with Lula. Besides the economic, political and administrative failure, the left parties allies of PT are complicit with the greatest corruption in Brazil promoted by a political party in power.
Signs of economic, political and social ruination are already present in Brazil indicating the strong possibility of the country to be convulsed in 2016 by the confrontation between the political forces interested in the removal of Dilma Rousseff of power and those who fight for their stay in the Presidencyof the Republic. It seems that in 2016, Brazil will be politically convulsed with the confrontation between supporters and opponents of the current government. This may cause them to also street clashes that may require the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order. In other words, whether to dismiss or stay in power Dilma Rousseff, Brazil will be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences.
Similarities between the crisis of 1930 and 2015 in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The political and economic crises that shake Brazil at the moment have some similarities to those that occurred in 1930 and led to the deposition of President of Republic, Washington Luis. The political crisis in 1930 was the product of exhaustion of the oligarchic regime inaugurated in 1889 with the proclamation of the Republic and the economic crisis was a consequence of economic infeasibility of the existing agro-export model in Brazil since the colonial period that suffered heavy blow to the global economic crisis of 1929. In turn, the 2015 political crisis in Brazil is the product of exhaustion of the social contract established with the 1988 Constitution and the current economic crisis is a result of the exhaustion of the neoliberal economic model dependent on the outside in place since 1990 and it is also suffering the consequences of the 2008 economic crisis that erupted in the United States and spilled over the world.
In order to prevent Brazil from facing an exception regime, it is necessary to carry out as urgently as possible a new National Constituent Assembly that allows for the conclusion of a new social contract on the basis of which the economic, political and social systems are reorganized. To hold general elections in Brazil in 2018 as it is defended by some parties and social segments with the maintenance of the corrupt and incompetent political class that governs the Country at the present moment without being preceded by a Constituent will represent a worsening of the serious crisis experienced by Brazil at the moment. Without a new Constituent we will be threatened to live with a new dictatorship in Brazil because the deterioration of the economic base and the political and legal superstructure will lead the country to total ungovernability..
It will be inevitable the impeachment of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff not only due to fiscal responsibility crimes that she has committed, but also by all the devastating work on the Brazilian economy that she and Lula held that and Lula held it in 13 years of PT governments. The balance of 13 years of PT governments indicates the lack of commitment of both governments to the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on the past 50 years, a historical inconsistency traitor. This inconsistency has occurred, especially in the economic and moral planes. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. On the moral sphere, it was institutionalized systemic corruption in the PT governments that contributed to pushing Petrobras and the country to bankruptcy.
The gigantic political impasse of brazil and its future scenariosFernando Alcoforado
Brazil's political impasse at the moment will only be effectively resolved with the convening of a new Constituent Assembly to order the national life on a new basis. Only then can cause the current economic crisis can be resolved and are avoided corruption scandals that continuously succeed in modern times involving all branches of government in Brazil and more recently Petrobras. Only then can cope with the failure of representative democracy in the country that shows clear signs of exhaustion not only by corruption scandals in the powers of the Republic, but especially to discourage popular participation, reducing political activity the electoral processes that are repeated periodically in which the people elect their representatives which, with few exceptions, after the elections come to defend interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
Brazil is a country that has its economic system in a terminal stage due to the vertiginous wave of mass unemployment and the widespread bankruptcy of companies aggravated by government measures that restrict economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that contribute to lead Brazil to depression economic which can cause a social upheaval unprecedented in the history of the country. This social upheaval will result from the worsening economic situation of the vast majority of the Brazilian population, especially the poorest. Hunger, which is present in the majority of the Brazilian population, tends to increase with the vertiginous retraction of economic activity resulting from the measures adopted by governments at all levels to combat the coronavirus.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
Self criticism that leftist political parties need to makeFernando Alcoforado
Changing the world through the state was the paradigm that prevailed in the left-wing political parties of the eighteenth century until the 1990s of the twentieth century when the Soviet Union and the socialist countries of Eastern Europe were dismantled. The thesis of the leftist political parties that founded these conceptions is simple: the state that until then was an instrument of the bourgeoisie was transformed into an instrument of the working class through the Reformation or the Social Revolution. The thesis of considering the state as the center of radiance of change was a resounding failure in all parts of the world, both in the countries that tried to build socialism and in the peripheral countries that adopted a nationalist stance in promoting their development.
The pt workers´party governments are not progress forces in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Governments of the PT cannot be considered forces of progress because the balance of 13 years of Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments is the denial of the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on in the twentieth century, a historical inconsistency traitor. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both PT governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso governments following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. One of the great expectations that are created with the electoral victory of the PT governments from 2002 was that it would be continued Brazilian economic and social development process and national emancipation triggered by the presidents Getúlio Vargas and João Goulart to overcome the dependence on Brazil to foreign capital and the strengthening of production belonging to Brazilian sectors. Rather, what we found was the increased financial and technological dependence of Brazil in relation to the outside and the denationalization of the Brazilian economy.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
Brazil is clearly in a recession that was engendered by a series of economic policy mistakes made by the neoliberal governments that followed from 1990 up to the present moment, and also by the passive attitude of the incompetent Michel Temer government that does not adopt any effective measure that is Capable of avoiding Brazil's journey towards economic depression.
The ship of foolish is an ancient allegory widely used in Western culture in literature and paintings. Imbued with a sense of self-criticism, she describes the world and its inhabitants as if they were in a ship whose troubled passengers neither know nor care where they are going. Brazil is like a boat sinking. And we Brazilians are passengers of this boat that is going nowhere and we are sinking with it.
Neste artigo já publicado em 31/03/2016 são apresentadas as medidas capazes de sustar o colapso econômico e político-institucional do Brasil após o impeachment de Dilma Rousseff. Sem elas, o Brasil terá seu futuro comprometido. Não basta, portanto, a substituição de Dilma Rousseff pelo vice-presidente Michel Temer que deverá ocorrer com o impeachment da atual presidente. É preciso que sejam adotadas as medidas aqui propostas para impedir o colapso dos sistemas econômico e político-institucional do Brasil.
Costs of stay in power of current rulers in brazil and the benefits of their ...Fernando Alcoforado
Currently, there is a national outcry by the remoteness of Dilma Rousseff of the Presidency either through impeachment, resignation or through military intervention. To be impeachment is necessary that the head of the executive branch commits a violation, such as abuse of power, responsibility for crime, common crime and violation of the Constitution or lost the confidence of the nation and for reasons of state. If it´s not possible to fit Dilma Rousseff in crime of abuse of power, crime of responsibility and common crime, there is only the loss of confidence of the nation by the fact that she practiced electoral larceny or be reasons of state to avoid economic and social disaster that would result for their hold on power.
Today, Brazil is a country divided between PT (Worker Party) and anti PT which resulted in the last presidential elections. Based on the results of the presidential elections in its second round, it appears that the supporters of PT represent 40% (Dilma Rousseff voters). The difference (60%) is the placement of the PT opponents who do not accept the policy pursued by that party and its leaders in the conduction of the nation's destiny. The existence of a divided and radicalized country that registers today becomes difficult to Dilma Rousseff to perform her task to rule Brazil. The permanence of the PT in power with the victory of Dilma Rousseff in the second round of elections constitutes an institutional political instability factor because without the support of the vast majority of the nation she has lost her condition to govern Brazil. Dilma Rousseff became a copy of Nicolas Maduro, president of Venezuela, facing serious problems of governance in their deeply divided country. The governance of a country by a ruler's legitimacy depends not only of the victory in the presidential elections, but fundamentally in the active support of the vast majority of the nation.
How to strengthen the movement by impeachment of dilma rousseff in brazilFernando Alcoforado
It is evident the growing deterioration of social movements in favor of impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. This deterioration would be motivated by the political difficulties of carrying out impeachment in Congress and legal barriers within the Supreme Court. There is evidence that it is not enough conduct street movements as a strategy to pressure the National Congress and the Supreme Court seeking the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. This strategy has to be coupled with actions that lead to extensive occupation of public buildings and the convening of a general strike throughout the country to demand the resignation or impeachment of Dilma Rousseff as president of the Republic.
Pt workers party and demoralization of the left in brazilFernando Alcoforado
All the facts of the recent history of Brazil are leading to discredit the PT and the left forces that give you political support. It is confirmed in practice the theory of Immanuel Wallerstein presented in its work Utopística ou as Decisões Históricas do Século Vinte e Um (Utopianism or the Historic Decisions of the Twenty-first Century) (Editora Vozes. Petrópolis, 1998) that "the main element that led to the people to put away of these parties was the disappointment, one feeling that these parties had had a historic opportunity, which had obtained support based on a strategy of two steps to transform the world (take state power, then transform it), and they had not fulfilled its historic promise. This Wallerstein thesis applies entirely to contemporary Brazil. After having failed in Brazil management by bringing it to bankruptcy and not having met the expectations of the majority of the population, PT and its leftist parties allies are desperately fighting for power maintenance claiming that their opponents are coup plotters when, in fact, who is sponsor of the coup d´état is Lula supported by PT and its left-wing parties allied with the rise of the former president to the ministry of Dilma Rousseff that turn her into "queen of England", that is, all power would be with Lula. Besides the economic, political and administrative failure, the left parties allies of PT are complicit with the greatest corruption in Brazil promoted by a political party in power.
Signs of economic, political and social ruination are already present in Brazil indicating the strong possibility of the country to be convulsed in 2016 by the confrontation between the political forces interested in the removal of Dilma Rousseff of power and those who fight for their stay in the Presidencyof the Republic. It seems that in 2016, Brazil will be politically convulsed with the confrontation between supporters and opponents of the current government. This may cause them to also street clashes that may require the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order. In other words, whether to dismiss or stay in power Dilma Rousseff, Brazil will be convulsed by a political struggle with unpredictable consequences.
Similarities between the crisis of 1930 and 2015 in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The political and economic crises that shake Brazil at the moment have some similarities to those that occurred in 1930 and led to the deposition of President of Republic, Washington Luis. The political crisis in 1930 was the product of exhaustion of the oligarchic regime inaugurated in 1889 with the proclamation of the Republic and the economic crisis was a consequence of economic infeasibility of the existing agro-export model in Brazil since the colonial period that suffered heavy blow to the global economic crisis of 1929. In turn, the 2015 political crisis in Brazil is the product of exhaustion of the social contract established with the 1988 Constitution and the current economic crisis is a result of the exhaustion of the neoliberal economic model dependent on the outside in place since 1990 and it is also suffering the consequences of the 2008 economic crisis that erupted in the United States and spilled over the world.
In order to prevent Brazil from facing an exception regime, it is necessary to carry out as urgently as possible a new National Constituent Assembly that allows for the conclusion of a new social contract on the basis of which the economic, political and social systems are reorganized. To hold general elections in Brazil in 2018 as it is defended by some parties and social segments with the maintenance of the corrupt and incompetent political class that governs the Country at the present moment without being preceded by a Constituent will represent a worsening of the serious crisis experienced by Brazil at the moment. Without a new Constituent we will be threatened to live with a new dictatorship in Brazil because the deterioration of the economic base and the political and legal superstructure will lead the country to total ungovernability..
It will be inevitable the impeachment of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff not only due to fiscal responsibility crimes that she has committed, but also by all the devastating work on the Brazilian economy that she and Lula held that and Lula held it in 13 years of PT governments. The balance of 13 years of PT governments indicates the lack of commitment of both governments to the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on the past 50 years, a historical inconsistency traitor. This inconsistency has occurred, especially in the economic and moral planes. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. On the moral sphere, it was institutionalized systemic corruption in the PT governments that contributed to pushing Petrobras and the country to bankruptcy.
The gigantic political impasse of brazil and its future scenariosFernando Alcoforado
Brazil's political impasse at the moment will only be effectively resolved with the convening of a new Constituent Assembly to order the national life on a new basis. Only then can cause the current economic crisis can be resolved and are avoided corruption scandals that continuously succeed in modern times involving all branches of government in Brazil and more recently Petrobras. Only then can cope with the failure of representative democracy in the country that shows clear signs of exhaustion not only by corruption scandals in the powers of the Republic, but especially to discourage popular participation, reducing political activity the electoral processes that are repeated periodically in which the people elect their representatives which, with few exceptions, after the elections come to defend interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
Brazil is a country that has its economic system in a terminal stage due to the vertiginous wave of mass unemployment and the widespread bankruptcy of companies aggravated by government measures that restrict economic activity to prevent the spread of the coronavirus that contribute to lead Brazil to depression economic which can cause a social upheaval unprecedented in the history of the country. This social upheaval will result from the worsening economic situation of the vast majority of the Brazilian population, especially the poorest. Hunger, which is present in the majority of the Brazilian population, tends to increase with the vertiginous retraction of economic activity resulting from the measures adopted by governments at all levels to combat the coronavirus.
The future trajectory of Brazil is of growing political instability because the Brazilian economic crisis has structural roots, it is systemic and the Dilma Rousseff government does not meet policy and managerial competence to overcome it. The Brazilian government's inability manifests itself not only in solving today's problems, but above all for jeopardizing the future of the nation. Time conspires against the Dilma Rousseff government whose tendency is to worsen the current situation and drop in acceptance of his government by the Brazilian population as has been found in recent surveys where only 7% of the population approves of his government. The Brazilian population is against the Dilma Rousseff government what is seen as responsible for corruption at Petrobras and also for their economic decisions in the post-election period contrary to the interests of the people (increase in taxes, temporary blocking spending, more expensive energy with cutting subsidies for the electricity sector and changes in the rules of social benefits).
Self criticism that leftist political parties need to makeFernando Alcoforado
Changing the world through the state was the paradigm that prevailed in the left-wing political parties of the eighteenth century until the 1990s of the twentieth century when the Soviet Union and the socialist countries of Eastern Europe were dismantled. The thesis of the leftist political parties that founded these conceptions is simple: the state that until then was an instrument of the bourgeoisie was transformed into an instrument of the working class through the Reformation or the Social Revolution. The thesis of considering the state as the center of radiance of change was a resounding failure in all parts of the world, both in the countries that tried to build socialism and in the peripheral countries that adopted a nationalist stance in promoting their development.
The pt workers´party governments are not progress forces in brazilFernando Alcoforado
Governments of the PT cannot be considered forces of progress because the balance of 13 years of Lula and Dilma Rousseff governments is the denial of the great struggles of the Brazilian people carried on in the twentieth century, a historical inconsistency traitor. Inconsistency in the economic sphere is manifested in the fact that both PT governments have given continuity to the neoliberal and anti-national policy of the Fernando Collor, Itamar Franco and Fernando Henrique Cardoso governments following what established the Washington Consensus in the 1990s. One of the great expectations that are created with the electoral victory of the PT governments from 2002 was that it would be continued Brazilian economic and social development process and national emancipation triggered by the presidents Getúlio Vargas and João Goulart to overcome the dependence on Brazil to foreign capital and the strengthening of production belonging to Brazilian sectors. Rather, what we found was the increased financial and technological dependence of Brazil in relation to the outside and the denationalization of the Brazilian economy.
The governability of a country is only achieved when the government has a parliamentary majority to implement its policies and has the support of the vast majority of the population and the various social classes. Dilma Rousseff government seems no longer have the necessary conditions to rule Brazil, not only because they do not have the support of the parliamentary majority in Congress, but also because no longer have the nation's most support that enabled her win the last presidential elections.
Brazil is clearly in a recession that was engendered by a series of economic policy mistakes made by the neoliberal governments that followed from 1990 up to the present moment, and also by the passive attitude of the incompetent Michel Temer government that does not adopt any effective measure that is Capable of avoiding Brazil's journey towards economic depression.
The ship of foolish is an ancient allegory widely used in Western culture in literature and paintings. Imbued with a sense of self-criticism, she describes the world and its inhabitants as if they were in a ship whose troubled passengers neither know nor care where they are going. Brazil is like a boat sinking. And we Brazilians are passengers of this boat that is going nowhere and we are sinking with it.
Neste artigo já publicado em 31/03/2016 são apresentadas as medidas capazes de sustar o colapso econômico e político-institucional do Brasil após o impeachment de Dilma Rousseff. Sem elas, o Brasil terá seu futuro comprometido. Não basta, portanto, a substituição de Dilma Rousseff pelo vice-presidente Michel Temer que deverá ocorrer com o impeachment da atual presidente. É preciso que sejam adotadas as medidas aqui propostas para impedir o colapso dos sistemas econômico e político-institucional do Brasil.
Faced with the impossibility of Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer build social peace in Brazil would need to be the resignation of both, respectively the Presidency and Vice-Presidency of the Republic to make way for the establishment of an interim government of national unity composed of respectable public figures accepted by all political forces in confrontation that would have the mandate to convene a new constituent assembly to reorganize the national life, seek the country's consensus in resolving the economic and social crisis, prevent the escalation of violence in Brazil and hold new general elections in the country . This would therefore be the way to avoid a fratricidal struggle or a civil war in Brazil when the dissension would remove the construction of a new social pact. If this policy solution is not adopted there will only be one outcome to the institutional impasse in which he lives the Brazilian nation that is the intervention of the armed forces for the maintenance of constitutional order to prevent the emergence of a civil war in Brazil.
In the current stage of development of capitalism in Brazil, governance is only ensured if its rulers ensure the continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation for the benefit of the bourgeoisie and if increasing income redistribution in favor of classes subaltern (petty bourgeoisie, urban and rural proletariat and lumpen proletariat). For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of disorder is inevitable in Dilma Rousseff government because she will not be able to ensure continuity of the process of capitalist accumulation and redistribution of income in favor of the lower classes. The ungovernability tends to generate political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences in a divided country like Brazil. This is the price that the Brazilian people decided to pay electing Dilma Rousseff as president of Republic.
In view of the fact that the Michel Temer government does not have ethical and moral conditions to continue to govern Brazil and does not have the capacity to lead efforts to solve the economic and political-institutional crises, the Brazilian people should demand that the Chamber of Deputies accept the denunciation of passive corruption against Michel Temer to remove him from the Presidency of the Republic and, after 180 days, demand that the National Congress elect a new President of the Republic that will constitute a government of national salvation and commit itself to the convening of a new National Constituent Assembly to carry out the political reforms and of the State and of Public Administration reforms, after which it would hold new general elections in Brazil.
Political instability has assumed large proportions in recent times with the denunciation of investigated for corruption that commits not only the country's political class, but mainly the executive and legislative branches of government that are totally demoralized and contribute to become unviable the efforts of Michel Temer government to recover extremely deteriorated Brazilian economy. This situation adds to the fact that Michel Temer be rejected as Dilma Rousseff by the population, making it unable to demand sacrifices of the population to adopt the necessary measures to overcome the economic crisis that will affect the interests, particularly the middle class and urban and rural proletariat that tend to rebel making Brazil ungovernable. For these reasons, the ungovernability, which is the domain of the disorder, will be inevitable in Michel Temer government. This tends to generate social unrest and political and institutional instability with unpredictable consequences that require the convening of a National Constituent Assembly Exclusive to reorder the national life before the collapse of the political system in force in Brazil.
Brazil's future depends on a new constituent and retaking of developmentFernando Alcoforado
The path that can lead to economic and social progress in Brazil requires the overcoming of political and economic crises that threaten the future of the country. Overcoming the political crisis requires the convening of an Exclusive National Constituent Assembly to reorder the national life before the bankruptcy of political system in force in Brazil. Overcoming the economic crisis requires the restructuring of the Brazilian economy on new foundations radically different from the current model.
Crisis of governability and governance threaten the legitimacy of dilma rouss...Fernando Alcoforado
The crisis of governance in Brazil today is materialized in practice with the sharp decrease in the confidence indexes of the Brazilian population in public institutions and in street demonstrations against the poor quality of public services in general. At federal level, government disarticulation with its support base, its disagreement with the social movements and the economic agents and the errors of economic policy which further aggravated the crisis that befalls the Brazilian economy complement this picture of a government, such as of Dilma Rousseff, that cannot operate competently political and administrative action in order to produce satisfactory results for the benefit of the vast majority of the population. When there is the growth of social demands projected on protests coinciding with the collapse of the capacity of governments to develop appropriate responses, governance crises tend to turn into a crisis of governability. This is the case of Brazil due to the inability of the federal government and state and local governments in general to give answers to social demands in the short term.
Nowadays, countries structure their governments on the basis of presidential and parliamentary systems. In the presidential system, the republican regime, as in Brazil, the president-elect receive popular mandate to govern for a certain period of time while in the parliamentary system, the republican or monarchical regimes, the majority party in parliament is tasked to choose the first -Minister, structuring the required parliamentary majority to govern and set up his office. If the majority party cannot compose a new government, new parliamentary elections would be held. In the presidential system, can take place the elected president rule without possessing the necessary parliamentary majority, a fact that constitutes political instability factor difficult to overcome as it has been in Brazil for many years, and particularly in the current situation. Unlike the parliamentary system that enables the replacement of the incumbent government by another in times of political crisis, the presidential system hinders this type of solution given that the elected president can only be dismounted from power legally during his tenure in case of a crime committed or by force through coup d'etat.
Nowadays, countries structure their governments on the basis of presidential and parliamentary systems. In the presidential system, the republican regime, as in Brazil, the president-elect receive popular mandate to govern for a certain period of time while in the parliamentary system, the republican or monarchical regimes, the majority party in parliament is tasked to choose the first -Minister, structuring the required parliamentary majority to govern and set up his office. If the majority party cannot compose a new government, new parliamentary elections would be held. In the presidential system, can take place the elected president rule without possessing the necessary parliamentary majority, a fact that constitutes political instability factor difficult to overcome as it has been in Brazil for many years, and particularly in the current situation. Unlike the parliamentary system that enables the replacement of the incumbent government by another in times of political crisis, the presidential system hinders this type of solution given that the elected president can only be dismounted from power legally during his tenure in case of a crime committed or by force through coup d'etat.
President Lula said in his inaugural speech in 2003 he won the election because hope (of the people) won fear (of change). However, when taking office, President Lula and his team have shown that the fear of facing the real causes of national problems overlapped on the hope of the people to carry out the changes required to promote economic and social progress of Brazil because it kept neoliberal economic policy of the Fernando Henrique Cardoso government.
Instead of mobilizing civil society to together with the government to develop and implement a national development plan capable of breaking the barriers to economic and social progress of Brazil that correspond to the true interests of the majority of the Brazilian people, governments of PT (Worker Party) of Lula and Dilma Rousseff decided to maintain the neoliberal economic model opened in the Fernando Collor government which resulted in increased dependence of the country on foreign capital and low economic growth.
Reform of the constitution or political backlash in brazilFernando Alcoforado
There is no way to change the reality experienced by Brazil in the economic, political and administrative fields unless the holding of the constitutional reform to avoid a political and institutional breakdown in the country and build a new political and administrative radically democratic based on ethics and development for the benefit of the entire population. It is not enough to hold a mere political reform including as has been recommended by President Dilma Rousseff. The situation currently lived in Brazil calls into question not only the powers, but also representative democracy that may lead to ungovernability of the power structures in Brazil, now quite demoralized by successive corruption scandals that are reaching all branches of government.
The dismantling of political and legal super structure in brazilFernando Alcoforado
The Brazilian nation is facing the impasse of having to live with a solution that means to maintain in power until the presidential elections of 2018 the kleptocracy that governs Brazil. This solution is unacceptable to all Brazilians who want Brazil to go through the path of economic, social, political and moral progress. This solution would aggravate further the gigantic economic crisis that has affected Brazil since 2014.
The current problems of Brazil will not be overcome due to the Michel Temer government's inability to abandon the neoliberal and anti-national economic model in force because succumbed to the national and international financial capital and to reform the political system and the management model of public sector because he succumb to the reactionary political forces that make up the National Congress. While Michel Temer and the forces that give her support to continue in power, Brazil will continue a country ungovernable, like a ship adrift ready to sink. Brazil's future is dark in the absence of political and institutional alternatives to overcome the current crisis. Only remains to Brazilian people to expect that, before or after the "shipwreck of the ship named Brazil", a new National Constituent Assembly will be convened to carry out the political, State and Public Administration reforms and, consequently, to reorganize the national life.
Brazil will not overcome current crisis without the refoundation of the republicFernando Alcoforado
The gravity of the current political situation of Brazil is demanding the re-founding of the Republic that is, at present, a mere piece of fiction. The political crisis that shakes Brazil result basically of the failure of the political model adopted in the Constituent Assembly of 1988. The failure of the political model in Brazil is set on the fact of presidentialism in force since 1889 to be generator of political and institutional crises such as those already occurred in the past which resulted in impeachments and coups d´état. In addition, the country's political system is contaminated by corruption as evidenced by the processes of the "Mensalão" that investigated crime of vote-buying of lawmakers by the Brazilian government. Representative democracy in Brazil also expresses clear signs of exhaustion to discourage popular participation in government decisions, reducing political activity to mere electoral processes that are periodically repeated in which the people elect their representatives who, with few exceptions, after elections come to defend the interests of economic groups in opposition to the interests of those who elected them.
Similar to A terrible time of brazil where idiots drive unseeing (14)
Este artigo tem por objetivo demonstrar que o povo brasileiro vive o inferno representado pelas catástrofes políticas, econômicas, sociais e ambientais que estão conduzindo o País a um desastre humanitário sem precedentes em sua história de gigantescas proporções. A catástrofe política no Brasil poderá ocorrer com o fim do processo democrático resultante da escalada do fascismo na sociedade pela ação do presidente Jair Bolsonaro que busca colocar em prática sua proposta de governo tipicamente fascista baseada no culto explícito da ordem, na violência de Estado, em práticas autoritárias de governo, no desprezo social por grupos vulneráveis e fragilizados e no anticomunismo. Soma-se à catástrofe política, a catástrofe econômica caracterizada pela estagnação da economia brasileira que amarga uma recessão em 2020 agravada pela pandemia do novo coronavirus porque o PIB caiu 4,1% em relação ao de 2019, a menor taxa da série histórica, iniciada em 1996, bem como com a taxa de desemprego em patamar recorde de 14,8 milhões de pessoas em busca de emprego no País. A catástrofe social se manifesta no fato de o governo Bolsonaro nada fazer para reduzir as taxas de desemprego reativando a economia, atuar em prejuízo dos interesses dos trabalhadores promovendo medidas contra os direitos sociais da população e contribuir para o número elevado de infectados e mortos pelo coronavirus no Brasil ao sabotar o combate ao vírus. Finalmente, a catástrofe ambiental se manifesta no fato de o governo Bolsonaro contribuir para a inação de órgãos governamentais responsáveis pela fiscalização contra as agressões ao meio ambiente, abrir caminho para atividades de mineração, agricultura, pecuária e madeireira na Floresta Amazônica e afastar o Brasil do Acordo do Clima de Paris.
Cet article vise à démontrer que le peuple brésilien vit l'enfer représenté par les catastrophes politiques, économiques, sociales et environnementales qui conduisent le pays à une catastrophe humanitaire sans précédent dans son histoire aux proportions gigantesques. La catastrophe politique au Brésil pourrait survenir avec la fin du processus démocratique résultant de l'escalade du fascisme dans la société par l'action du président Jair Bolsonaro, qui cherche à mettre en pratique sa proposition de gouvernement typiquement fasciste. fondée sur le culte explicite de l'ordre, la violence d'État, les pratiques gouvernementales autoritaires, le mépris social pour les groupes vulnérables et fragiles et l'anticommunisme. Outre la catastrophe politique, la catastrophe économique caractérisée par la stagnation de l'économie brésilienne après une récession en 2020, aggravée par la nouvelle pandémie de coronavirus, car le PIB a baissé de 4,1% par rapport à 2019, le taux le plus bas du série historique, commencée en 1996, ainsi qu'avec le taux de chômage à un niveau record de 14,8 millions de personnes à la recherche d'un emploi dans le pays.La catastrophe sociale se manifeste par le fait que le gouvernement Bolsonaro ne fait rien pour réduire les taux de chômage en réactivant la économique, agissant au détriment des intérêts des travailleurs, promouvant des mesures contre les droits sociaux de la population et contribuant au nombre élevé de personnes infectées et tuées par le coronavirus au Brésil en sabotant la lutte contre le virus. Enfin, la catastrophe environnementale se manifeste par le fait que le gouvernement Bolsonaro contribue à l'inaction des agences gouvernementales chargées de surveiller les agressions contre l'environnement, ouvrant la voie aux activités minières, agricoles, d'élevage et d'exploitation forestière dans la forêt amazonienne et retirant le Brésil de l'Accord de Paris sur le climat.
Cet article a pour objectif de présenter et d'analyser le rapport du Groupe d'experts intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du climat (GIEC), agence liée à l'ONU, rendu public le 9 août 2021 à travers lequel il montre l'ensemble des connaissances acquises depuis la publication de son précédent rapport en 2014 sur le climat de la planète Terre. 234 auteurs de 66 pays ont examiné plus de 14 000 études scientifiques et leur travail a été reçu avec plus de 78 000 commentaires et observations de chercheurs et d'experts qui travaillant pour les 195 gouvernements auxquels ce travail est destiné. Ce rapport révèle une connaissance approfondie du climat passé, présent et futur de la Terre. Le résumé de ce rapport est à lire dans l'article Selon le GIEC, le changement climatique est irréversible, mais peut encore être corrigé disponible sur le site <https://www.sciencesetavenir.fr/nature-environnement/climat/selon-le-giec-le-changement-climatique-s-accelere-est-irreversible-mais-peut-etre-corrige_156431>. Alors que peut-on faire pour éviter cette catastrophe climatique ? La solution est de réduire de moitié les émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre d'ici 2030 et de zéro émission nette d'ici le milieu de ce siècle pour arrêter et éventuellement inverser la hausse des températures. La réduction à zéro des émissions nettes consiste à réduire autant que possible les émissions de gaz à effet de serre en utilisant les technologies propres et les énergies renouvelables, ainsi que comme capter et stocker le carbone, ou l'absorber en plantant des arbres. Très probablement, le monde ne réussira pas à empêcher d'autres changements climatiques en raison de l'absence d'un système de gouvernance mondiale capable d'empêcher l'augmentation du réchauffement climatique et le changement climatique catastrophique résultant de l'impuissance de l'ONU.
AQUECIMENTO GLOBAL, MUDANÇA CLIMÁTICA GLOBAL E SEUS IMPACTOS SOBRE A SAÚDE HU...Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar os impactos do aquecimento global e da consequente mudança climática sobre a saúde humana e as soluções que permitam evitar suas maléficas consequências contra a humanidade. Para alcançar este objetivo, é necessário promover uma transformação profunda da sociedade atual que tem sido extremamente destruidora das condições de vida do planeta. Diante disso, é imprescindível que seja edificada uma sociedade sustentável substituindo o atual modelo econômico dominante em todo o mundo por outro que leve em conta o homem integrado com o meio ambiente, com a natureza, ou seja, o modelo de desenvolvimento sustentável. Foi analisado o Acordo de Paris com base na COP 21 organizada pela ONU através do qual 195 países e a União Europeia definiram como a humanidade lutará contra o aquecimento global nas próximas décadas, bem como foi analisada literatura relacionada com o aquecimento global e a mudança climática para extrair as conclusões que apontam como substituir o modelo de desenvolvimento atual pelo modelo de desenvolvimento sustentável.
GLOBAL WARMING, GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACTS ON HUMAN HEALTHFernando Alcoforado
This article aims to present the impacts of global warming and the consequent global climate change on human health and the solutions to avoid its harmful consequences against humanity. In order to achieve this goal, it is necessary to promote a profound transformation of current society, which has been extremely destructive of the planet's living conditions. Therefore, it is essential to build a sustainable society, replacing the current dominant economic model throughout the world with one that takes into account man integrated with the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable development. The Paris Agreement was analyzed based on the COP 21 organized by the UN through which 195 countries and the European Union defined how humanity will fight global warming in the coming decades, as well as was analyzed literature related to global warming and climate change to extract the conclusions that point out how to replace the current development model with the sustainable development model.
LE RÉCHAUFFEMENT CLIMATIQUE, LE CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE MONDIAL ET SES IMPACTS ...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article a pour objectif de présenter les impacts du réchauffement climatique et du changement climatique qui en découle sur la santé humaine et les solutions pour éviter ses conséquences néfastes contre l'humanité. Pour atteindre cet objectif, il est nécessaire de promouvoir une transformation profonde de la société d'aujourd'hui qui a été extrêmement destructrice des conditions de vie sur la planète. Il est donc essentiel de construire une société durable, en remplaçant le modèle économique actuel dominant à travers le monde par un autre qui prenne en compte l'homme intégré à l'environnement, à la nature, c'est-à-dire le modèle de développement durable. L'Accord de Paris a été analysé sur la base de la COP 21 organisée par l'ONU à travers laquelle 195 pays et l'Union européenne ont défini comment l'humanité luttera contre le réchauffement climatique dans les prochaines décennies, ainsi que a été analysée la littérature liée au réchauffement climatique et au changement climatique pour extraire les conclusions qui indiquent comment remplacer le modèle de développement actuel par le modèle de développement durable.
Cet article a trois objectifs : 1) démontrer qu'il y a un changement drastique du climat de la Terre grâce au réchauffement climatique, qui contribue à la survenue d'inondations dans les villes aux effets de plus en plus catastrophiques ; 2) proposer des mesures pour lutter contre le changement climatique mondial ; et 3) proposer des mesures pour préparer les villes à faire face à des événements météorologiques extrêmes. Récemment, des inondations se sont produites qui exposent la vulnérabilité des villes d'Europe et de Chine aux conditions météorologiques les plus extrêmes. Après les inondations qui ont fait des morts en Allemagne, en Belgique et en Chine, le message a été renforcé que des changements importants sont nécessaires pour préparer les villes à faire face à des événements similaires à l'avenir. Les gouvernements doivent admettre que les infrastructures qu'ils ont construites dans le passé pour les villes, même à une époque plus récente, sont vulnérables à ces phénomènes météorologiques extrêmes. Pour faire face aux inondations qui deviendront de plus en plus fréquentes, les gouvernements doivent agir simultanément dans trois directions : la première est de lutter contre le changement climatique mondial ; le second est de préparer les villes à faire face à des événements météorologiques extrêmes et le troisième est de mettre en œuvre une société durable aux niveaux national et mondial.
This article has three objectives: 1) to demonstrate that there is a drastic change in the Earth's climate thanks to global warming, which is contributing to the occurrence of floods in cities that are increasingly catastrophic in their effects; 2) propose measures to combat global climate change; and 3) propose measures to prepare cities to face extreme weather events. Recently, floods have occurred that expose the vulnerability of cities in Europe and China to the most extreme weather. After the floods that killed people in Germany, Belgium and China, the message was reinforced that significant changes are needed to prepare cities to face similar events in the future. Governments need to admit that the infrastructure they built in the past for cities, even in more recent times, is vulnerable to these extreme weather events. To deal with the floods that will become more and more frequent, governments need to act simultaneously in three directions: the first is to combat global climate change; the second is to prepare cities to face extreme weather events and the third is to implement a sustainable society at the national and global levels.
Este artigo tem três objetivos: 1) demonstrar que está havendo uma mudança drástica no clima da Terra graças ao aquecimento global que está contribuindo para a ocorrência de inundações nas cidades que se repetem de forma cada vez mais catastrófica em seus efeitos; 2) propor medidas para combater a mudança climática global; e, 3) propor medidas visando preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos climáticos extremos. Recentemente, ocorreram enchentes que expõem a vulnerabilidade das cidades da Europa e da China ao clima mais extremo. Depois das enchentes que mataram pessoas na Alemanha, Bélgica e China foi reforçada a mensagem de que são necessárias mudanças significativas para preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos similares no futuro. Os governos precisam admitir que a infraestrutura que construíram no passado para as cidades, mesmo em tempos mais recentes, é vulnerável a esses eventos de clima extremo. Para lidar com as inundações que serão cada vez mais frequentes, os governos precisam agir simultaneamente em três direções: a primeira consiste em combater a mudança climática global; a segunda consiste em preparar as cidades para enfrentar eventos extremos no clima e a terceira consiste em implantar uma sociedade sustentável nas esferas nacional e global.
CIVILIZAÇÃO OU BARBÁRIE SÃO AS ESCOLHAS DO POVO BRASILEIRO NAS ELEIÇÕES DE 2022 Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo demonstrar que as eleições de 2022 são decisivas para o futuro do Brasil porque que o povo brasileiro terá que decidir entre os valores da civilização e da democracia ou os da barbárie e do fascismo defendidos pelos candidatos à Presidência da República. É preciso observar que a Civilização é considerada o estágio mais avançado que uma sociedade humana pode alcançar do ponto de vista político, econômico, social, cultural, científico e tecnológico. O contrário de civilização é a Barbárie que é a condição daquilo que é selvagem, cruel, desumano e grosseiro, ou seja, quem ou o que é tido como bárbaro que atenta contra o progresso político, econômico, social, cultural, científico e tecnológico. A barbárie sempre se caracterizou ao longo da história da humanidade por grupos que usam a força e a crueldade para alcançar seus objetivos.
CIVILISATION OU BARBARIE SONT LES CHOIX DU PEUPLE BRÉSILIEN AUX ÉLECTIONS DE ...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à démontrer que les élections de 2022 sont décisives pour l'avenir du Brésil car le peuple brésilien devra trancher entre les valeurs de civilisation et de démocratie ou celles de barbarie et de fascisme défendues par les candidats à la Présidence de la République. Il convient de noter que la civilisation est considérée comme le stade le plus avancé qu'une société humaine puisse atteindre d'un point de vue politique, économique, social, culturel, scientifique et technologique. Le contraire de la civilisation est la barbarie, qui est la condition de ce qui est sauvage, cruel, inhumain et grossier, c'est-à-dire qui ou ce qui est considéré comme barbare qui attaque le progrès politique, économique, social, culturel, scientifique et technologique. La barbarie a toujours été caractérisée tout au long de l'histoire de l'humanité par des groupes qui utilisent la force et la cruauté pour atteindre leurs objectifs.
CIVILIZATION OR BARBARISM ARE THE CHOICES OF THE BRAZILIAN PEOPLE IN THE 2022...Fernando Alcoforado
This article aims to demonstrate that the 2022 elections are decisive for the future of Brazil because the Brazilian people will have to decide between the values of civilization and democracy or those of barbarism and fascism defended by candidates for the Presidency of the Republic. It should be noted that Civilization is considered the most advanced stage that a human society can reach from a political, economic, social, cultural, scientific and technological point of view. The opposite of civilization is Barbarism, which is the condition of what is savage, cruel, inhuman and coarse, that is, who or what is considered barbaric that attacks political, economic, social, cultural, scientific and technological progress. Barbarism has always been characterized throughout human history by groups that use force and cruelty to achieve their goals.
COMO EVITAR A PREVISÃO DE STEPHEN HAWKING DE QUE A HUMANIDADE SÓ TEM MAIS 100...Fernando Alcoforado
Este artigo tem por objetivo apresentar o que foi dito pelo falecido cientista Stephen Hawking que afirmou em 2018 que a espécie humana poderia ser levada à extinção em 100 anos e que, devido a isto, forçaria os seres humanos a saírem da Terra, bem como demonstrar que as ameaças de extinção da espécie humana citadas por Hawking podem ser enfrentadas sem que haja a necessidade de fuga de seres humanos da Terra.
COMMENT ÉVITER LA PRÉVISION DE STEPHEN HAWKING QUE L'HUMANITÉ N'A QUE 100 ANS...Fernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à présenter ce qu'a dit le regretté scientifique Stephen Hawking qui a déclaré en 2018 que l'espèce humaine pourrait être amenée à l'extinction dans 100 ans et que, de ce fait, il forcerait les êtres humains à quitter la Terre, ainsi que démontrer que les menaces d'extinction de l'espèce humaine citées par Hawking peuvent être affrontées sans que les êtres humains aient besoin de s'échapper de la Terre.
Today the French Revolution is commemorated, which was a dividing mark in the history of humanity, starting the contemporary age. It was such an important event that its ideals influenced many movements around the world.
On commémore aujourd'hui la Révolution française, qui a marqué l'histoire de l'humanité en commençant l'ère contemporaine. C'était un événement si important que ses idéaux ont influencé de nombreux mouvements à travers le monde.
Hoje é comemorada a Revolução Francesa que foi um marco divisório da história da humanidade dando início à idade contemporânea. Foi um acontecimento tão importante que seus ideais influenciaram vários movimentos ao redor do mundo.
O TARIFAÇO DE ENERGIA É SINAL DE INCOMPETÊNCIA DO GOVERNO FEDERAL NO PLANEJAM...Fernando Alcoforado
É bastante evidente o descalabro do setor elétrico do Brasil. O planejamento eficaz do setor elétrico é aquele que deve ser desenvolvido com vários anos de antecedência e baseado em estudos técnicos e econômicos. A gestão competente tem que ser baseada no planejamento de longo prazo e com visão sistêmica que está faltando ao governo Bolsonaro. Sem a cultura do planejamento e a não utilização de profissionais competentes nas ações do governo federal, o resultado só poderia ser o que vem se registrando no setor elétrico que está ameaçado de “apagões” e de racionamento de energia elétrica.
LES RÉVOLUTIONS SOCIALES, LEURS FACTEURS DÉCLENCHEURS ET LE BRÉSIL ACTUELFernando Alcoforado
Cet article vise à analyser les facteurs déclencheurs des révolutions sociales qui se sont produites tout au long de l'histoire de l'humanité et à évaluer la possibilité de leur occurrence dans le Brésil contemporain.
SOCIAL REVOLUTIONS, THEIR TRIGGERS FACTORS AND CURRENT BRAZILFernando Alcoforado
This article aims to analyze the triggering factors of social revolutions that have occurred throughout human history and assess the possibility of their occurrence in contemporary Brazil.
role of women and girls in various terror groupssadiakorobi2
Women have three distinct types of involvement: direct involvement in terrorist acts; enabling of others to commit such acts; and facilitating the disengagement of others from violent or extremist groups.
‘वोटर्स विल मस्ट प्रीवेल’ (मतदाताओं को जीतना होगा) अभियान द्वारा जारी हेल्पलाइन नंबर, 4 जून को सुबह 7 बजे से दोपहर 12 बजे तक मतगणना प्रक्रिया में कहीं भी किसी भी तरह के उल्लंघन की रिपोर्ट करने के लिए खुला रहेगा।
हम आग्रह करते हैं कि जो भी सत्ता में आए, वह संविधान का पालन करे, उसकी रक्षा करे और उसे बनाए रखे।" प्रस्ताव में कुल तीन प्रमुख हस्तक्षेप और उनके तंत्र भी प्रस्तुत किए गए। पहला हस्तक्षेप स्वतंत्र मीडिया को प्रोत्साहित करके, वास्तविकता पर आधारित काउंटर नैरेटिव का निर्माण करके और सत्तारूढ़ सरकार द्वारा नियोजित मनोवैज्ञानिक हेरफेर की रणनीति का मुकाबला करके लोगों द्वारा निर्धारित कथा को बनाए रखना और उस पर कार्यकरना था।
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In a May 9, 2024 paper, Juri Opitz from the University of Zurich, along with Shira Wein and Nathan Schneider form Georgetown University, discussed the importance of linguistic expertise in natural language processing (NLP) in an era dominated by large language models (LLMs).
The authors explained that while machine translation (MT) previously relied heavily on linguists, the landscape has shifted. “Linguistics is no longer front and center in the way we build NLP systems,” they said. With the emergence of LLMs, which can generate fluent text without the need for specialized modules to handle grammar or semantic coherence, the need for linguistic expertise in NLP is being questioned.
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A terrible time of brazil where idiots drive unseeing
1. 1
A TERRIBLE TIME OF BRAZIL WHERE IDIOTS DRIVE UNSEEING
Fernando Alcoforado *
William Shakespeare, English poet and playwright, considered the greatest writer in the
English language and the most influential playwright in the world, is author in his
theatrical play King Lear of the phrase "What a terrible this time where idiots drive
unseeing”. This phrase applies perfectly to Brazil of the contemporary era in which we
find the existence of idiots, ie rulers devoid of intelligence and common sense in the
nation's command driving unseeing, that is, the incompetent members of government
structure that already are leading the country to bankruptcy. In our article under the title
A cegueira que domina o Brasil (The blindness that dominates Brazil) published on
11.23.2013, available on the website <http://fernando.alcoforado.zip.net> we've covered
what Shakespeare left evidenced in the phrase of his own.
In article A cegueira que domina o Brasil (Blindness that dominates Brazil), we based
on the work of Portuguese writer Jose Saramago, O Ensaio sobre a cegueira (Essay on
Blindness) edited by Companhia das Letras. In this work José Saramago presents a
terrifying picture of the dark times we live in the world. The scenario portrayed by
Saramago in his work is analogous to what we live in Brazil with the blindness that is
present throughout the structure of Dilma Rousseff government. We face today in Brazil
the risk of blindness (the blind world of Saramago) that dominates the Dilma Rousseff
government lead to the institutional political backlash (unclean and barbaric world of
Saramago) that may result as a consequence of the worsening economic crisis, social
and political those contaminate the powers of the Republic.
The blindness that dominates the rulers of Brazil is taking its economy to bankrupt that
is terminally ill with Dilma Rousseff government, as an unburied corpse, remaining as
President of the Republic without the slightest ability to reverse this situation.
Meanwhile, the deterioration of the Brazilian economy does the occurrence of dizzying
wave of unemployment and widespread business failure which can lead to an
unprecedented upheaval in the history of Brazil. In addition, the financial position of the
federal government, state governments and municipal governments is pre-bankruptcy to
the precipitous drop of the tax revenue resulting of the downturn in economic activity in
Brazil. Signs of disintegration in the government and society are evident in all parts of
the country. The neoliberal economic model in place shows clear signs of exhaustion. In
addition, all the political and administrative system of the country is contaminated by
corruption and state administrative apparatus is inefficient and ineffective.
All that has just been described coincides with the existence of a weak government
under the incompetent management of Dilma Rousseff that does not have the political
leadership nor the administrative capacity needed to make the changes required for
Brazil at the moment considering have the support of only 7% of the population that
overwhelmingly, want his removal from power. In addition, her ministry consists
almost entirely by incompetent people as a result of horse-trading between the
government and the allied parties. The blindness of the federal government is so big that
it takes no action to reverse the deterioration of public accounts that each year disburse
almost 50% of the federal government budget for the payment of interest on public debt
that benefits the financial system. In this situation, there is insufficient availability of
public resources to invest in economic infrastructure (energy, transport and
communications) and social (education, health, sanitation and housing). Instead of
doing an audit of public debt and renegotiate the lengthening of payment of the public
2. 2
debt service not to avoid prejudicing the interests of the financial system, the Dilma
Rousseff government chose to transfer the entire burden of the crisis to the Brazilian
people with the ill-fated fiscal adjustment which includes the reduction of social
benefits of the population and raising taxes.
Blindness characterized by lack of attitude of Brazil's leaders in the search for solution
to avoid current economic, social and policy decay with the restructuring of the
Brazilian economy on a new basis can lead to institutional political backlash with the
advent of unclean and barbaric world cited by Saramago. Rather than abandon the failed
neoliberal model in place, the Dilma Rousseff government decided to keep it. It must be
remembered that the economic crisis of 1929 led to the end of the Old Republic and the
advent of the dictatorship of Getúlio Vargas (1930-1945) and the economic crisis in the
early 1960s led to the advent of the military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985. We must
avoid that the deteriorating economic, social and political of the contemporary era lead
Brazil to a new authoritarian regime, the unclean and barbaric world quoted by
Saramago.
The political stability of Brazil and the Brazilian economy are at risk because the Dilma
Rousseff government does not have the support of the majority of population and of the
parliament to exercise its governance. It should be noted that governance concerns the
government's political ability to decide, enabling the execution of public policies. Dilma
Rousseff does not meet any of these conditions to govern the nation. In addition to not
exercise governance, Dilma Rousseff is threatened with impeachment for unlawful acts
that would have practiced in management of public accounts and the use of proceeds
from the robbery of Petrobras during his reelection campaign. All this weakens the
Dilma Rousseff government that is powerless to cope with the huge economic crisis of
Brazil.
It is indisputable that the serious problems faced by Brazil at the moment in the
economic and political levels are demanding a ruler who has accepted by the vast
majority of the population and ability to unite the nation around a common project of
national development. Unfortunately, there isn´t in Brazil in the political sphere anyone
who meets these conditions. The prospect that Rousseff is replaced by Vice President
Michel Temer not creates enthusiasm in the social movements that fight for the removal
of Dilma Rousseff of power. This explains the slowdown in the struggle of social
movements by impeachment of Dilma Rousseff. The nation is waiting for a leader who
has the stature of statesman as was Getúlio Vargas who promoted the construction of
modern Brazil with the process of industrialization after the global economic crisis of
1929 that hit Brazil and it produced the 1930 Revolution. Serious crisis currently
experienced by Brazil is demanding a true statesman in the nation's command to
restructure the national life on a new basis in the economic, political and social spheres.
To avoid political, economic and social catastrophe threatening Brazil, it is urgent to
replace the Dilma Rousseff government with one that is able to avoid a political and
institutional breakdown in the country, leading the celebration of a new social contract
and join the Brazilian nation around a common development project. It seems that if
Dilma Rousseff is not devoid of power through impeachment by unlawful committed by
her government, Brazil may be the scene of social upheaval of unpredictable
consequences with the confrontation between the vast majority of the Brazilian people
that want her deposition and government supporters. One must consider the lessons of
history that teach us that the social upheaval can lead to the establishment of right-wing
3. 3
or left-wing dictatorships. This is the risk that threatens the Brazilian society. Brazil
lives thus decisive moments in its history.
Fernando Alcoforado, member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor of Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, a university professor and
consultant in strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is
the author of Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova
(Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado.
Universidade de Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e
Desenvolvimento (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX
e Objetivos Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of
the Economic and Social Development-The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Muller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011),
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012) and
Energia no Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2015).