The document discusses strategies for cleaner mobility in South Africa, emphasizing the need for sustainable energy solutions to reduce emissions, energy consumption, and reliance on imported fuels. It highlights the potential benefits of transitioning to electric buses and improving urban transport efficiency to achieve significant carbon reductions and cost savings. The analysis also includes various energy scenarios and the impact of transportation choices on economic sectors and greenhouse gas emissions.

1. Energy & Mobility
The Bus
SANEDI: Cleaner Mobility
Carel Snyman 0824406669 carels@sanedi.org.za

2. SANEDI: Cleaner Mobility Programme
To find sustainable energy solutions
Considering:
– the energy used and
– the technologies applied
to do work - moving people and freight
Sustainable means not burning stuff to do work
• move away from paying forex for imported energy
• reduce energy consumption and emissions like CO2
• develop local energy supply
• stimulating local industrial development
• job creation

3. A Tale of Two Cities
Durban today
Durban in the future
– “as usual” – Sad City
– “innovation” - Smart City

4. Estimated Population Growth SA
City 2015 2030 (%)
Rustenburg 383 000 544 00 42%
Witbank 371 000 512 000 38%
Pretoria 2 059 000 2 701 000 31%
East London 319 000 397 000 24%
Bloemfontein 503 000 623 000 24%
Johannesburg 9 399 000 11 573 000 23%
Soshanguve 775 000 935 000 21%
Pietermaritzburg 495 000 588 000 19%
Vereeniging 1 155 000 1 370 000 19%
Cape Town 3 660 000 4 322 000 18%
Port Elizabeth 1 179 000 1 390 000 18%
Durban 2 901 000 3 349 000 15%

5. Urbanisation
Durban:
2017 – 2,9M people
2030 – 3,3M people
of the developing and developed world
respectively, will be urbanized by 2050.
60 and 90%

6. Energy in the City
Transport:
60% total energy
= 136 million GJ
Thereof:
55% is road transport
ENERGY SCENARIOS FOR ETHEKWINI (2010): Exploring the
implications of different energy futures for eThekwini up to 2040
eThekwini energy demand by sector (2010)
Residential
12%
Commerce
10%
Industry
16%Transport
60%
Elec
Losses
1%Local Govt
1%

7. Emissions in the CityeThekwini 2010 greenhouse gas emissions
by sector (2010)
Residential
19%
Commerce
16%
Industry
26%
Transport
34%
Elec
Losses
3%
Local Govt
2%

8. Business as Usual – eThekwini
Transport
Industry
Commerce
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
Residential
Residential
Commerce
Industry
Transport
Local Govt
Elec Losses
Energy Demand (PJ)
Scenario: Business As Usual
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Petajoules
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20

9. Business as Usual – eThekwini
Residential
Commerce
Industry
Transport
Local Govt
Elec Losses
Greenhouse Gas Emissions (Allocated to Demands)
Business As Usual
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
MetricMegatonnesCO2Equivalent
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2

10. Business as Usual – eThekwini

11. Energy Demand (PJ)
All Fuels
Business As Usual Densification
Energy & Transport Efficiency & PV
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Petajoules
220
200
180
160
140
Choices: Tweaking or Innovation?
% ENERGY SAVED IN TRANSPORT SECTOR BY
2030
• 8% increase in public transport pass-km
• Private vehicles
Diesel: 50%
Diesel efficient: 5%
Petrol: 35%
Petrol efficient: 5%
Electric: 3%
Hybrid: 2%
• Half of all bus passenger-km by BRT
• All minibuses diesel
• Increase vehicle occupancy to 2.0
17%

14. Let us analyse
Current situation?
Energy – imported, dirty, costly, waste
Tools – inefficient, oversized, waste, kills
Integration – competing, not connected, takes longer
Options?
Fit for purpose: size + application
Electric – most efficient
Renewable - sustainable
Connected – integrated, shared
Autonomous - safe

15. Measures of transportation work
Work = People x kilometres = P.km
P.km/MJoule - Efficiency
P.km/CO2 - Carbon Emissions
P.km/Rand - Cost (Forex)
P.km/Hour - Time
P.km/m2 - Space

16. We use energy to do work:
Food - 12 MJ/day (3000 kCal)
To walk - 0,25 MJ/P.km
To cycle - 0,11 MJ/P.km or < 0,08(electric) MJ/P.km
To drive - 3,20(petrol) MJ/P.km or 0,54(electric) MJ/P.km
To ride - 0,4(eBus) MJ/P.km or 0,2(Train) MJ/P.km
Or if you right size – 0,2(electric) MJ/P.km in a small commuter and
And go on rail – 0,1(RE electric) MJ/P.km in a light PRT system . . . . .

17. Where do energy come from?
Solar
Wind
Biomass
Tides
Gas
Oil
Coal

18. P
e
r
s
p
e
c
t
i
v
e
TW.yrs

19. Consider the SUN
PV(in SA):
3MJ
/sqm/day
How far
can I go
on only
solar PV
energy?

20. PV(in SA):
3MJ
/sqm/day
Consider the SUN
How far
can I go
on only
solar PV
energy?
PV(in SA):
3MJ
/sqm/day
eBike 38 P.km
eScooter 25 P.km
Train 14 P.km
3 Wheeler 14 P.km
Bus 8 P.km
4 Wheeler 9 P.km
Nissan Leaf 4 P.km

21. Consumption and production of fuel

24. 1
GDP in Rand
R:$ Exchange rate
GDP in $

27. South Africa’s Energy Demand (%)
Economic Sector 2010 2050
Industry 37 34
Mining 8 4
Agriculture 3 3
Commerce 7 7
Residential 11 8
Transport 34 44

29. The Car
Top speed 170km/h
0-100 in 8 seconds
Range of 600km
Petrol 8L/100km
Mass: 2’000kg
40kgCO2/100km
Limit = 60km/h
Need only 150km
Need only 14s
400kg can do

31. Cost, Energy and Pollution
For
100km:
Petrol
Car
Price/Unit R 12,00
Units 10 litres
Energy 320 MJ
Cost R 120,00
Electric Car
Normal
R 1,33
15 kWh
54 MJ
R 20,00
GWP
25kg 0 0
7-50kg 39kg 19kg45kg 39kg 13kg
80c
R4,00
Off-peak &
Small Car
5 kWh
27 MJ

34. So: Let’s look at the BUS

41. The India experience
“As much as 25 tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission can be
cut every year for every diesel bus replaced by an electric bus”,
said the IISC study, conducted by Sheela Ramasesha and her group at
the Divecha Centre for Climate Change in Bangalore. Electric buses
emit no CO2, but the electricity needed for their charging stations comes
primarily from coal-fired power plants, India’s primary energy source.
However, if solar panels are set up at battery charging stations of electric
buses, the annual 25 tonnes of CO2emission per bus can be further reduced.
Put another way, if 150,000 diesel buses were to be replaced by electric buses,
3.7 million tonnes of CO2 emissions could be saved.
Apart from reducing outdoor air pollution—which kills 670,000 people in India
every year, according to this Indian Institute of Management,
Ahmedabad paper—a clean bus system would aid national carbon-reduction
targets. Transport accounts for a tenth of India’s greenhouse gas emissions, as
we reported here, with a 2009 study attributing 95% of these emissions to
road transport.

42. Maintenance cost comparison
Outside of the cost of the
replacement battery, the average
annual electric bus maintenance cost
was calculated to be $1,770, a
significant savings compared to the
calculated annual diesel bus
maintenance cost, $8,850

44. Bus energy consumption

45. Bus CO2 emissions

46. Major suppliers of electric buses

48. Thank you for your attention!
Any questions?
Carel Snyman +27 11 083 4305
carels@sanedi.org.za

49. EVs and batteries

50. Road: Modes & energy performance
Mode Energy Number %
Load
Capacity
Unit
/100km
MJ/P.km
MJ/T.km
gCO2/P.km
gCO2/T.km
Car
Petrol 4'455'038 57% 1.4 9.0 2.19 153.77
Diesel 184'407 2% 1.4 7.0 1.90 119.60
SUV
Petrol 442'621 6% 1.4 14.0 3.40 239.20
Diesel 279'222 4% 1.4 11.0 2.99 187.94
LCV
Petrol 1'103'608 14% 0.5 13.0 8.84 621.92
Diesel 700'265 9% 0.5 10.0 7.60 478.40
MCV
Petrol 5'991 0.1% 2.5 33.0 4.49 315.74
Diesel 131'425 2% 2.5 25.7 3.90 245.58
HCV Diesel 198'134 3% 15 38.0 0.96 60.60
MBTaxi
Petrol 260'577 3% 14 15.0 0.36 25.63
Diesel 13'976 0.2% 14 11.7 0.32 19.93
Bus Diesel 30'033 0.4% 25 33.0 0.50 31.57

51. Road: Modes & Energy Impacts
Mode Energy Number %
Vkm/
year
MP.km
MT.km
Mlitre GJ % GJ
MTon
CO2
Car
Petrol 4'455'038 57% 24'000 149'689 9'623 327 35% 23.02
Diesel 184'407 2% 24'000 6'196 310 12 1% 0.74
SUV
Petrol 442'621 6% 24'000 14'872 1'487 51 5% 3.56
Diesel 279'222 4% 24'000 9'382 737 28 3% 1.76
LCV
Petrol 1'103'608 14% 25'000 13'795 3'587 122 13% 8.58
Diesel 700'265 9% 25'000 8'753 1'751 67 7% 4.19
MCV
Petrol 5'991 0.1% 45'000 674 89 3 0.3% 0.21
Diesel 131'425 2% 25'000 8'214 843 32 3% 2.02
HCV Diesel 198'134 3% 70'500 209'527 5'308 202 22% 12.70
MBTaxi
Petrol 260'577 3% 50'000 182'404 1'954 66 7% 4.67
Diesel 13'976 0.2% 50'000 9'783 82 3 0.3% 0.20
Bus Diesel 30'033 0.4% 40'000 30'033 396 15 2% 0.95

52. Well to Wheel GHG emissions in gCO2eq./km

53. Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
The electricity supply challenge:

54. Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
38
GWh
That is enough
for 6 million
Electric Cars
Turning Challenge into SOLUTION