Scary numbers
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Scary numbers refer to research data and figures that are used to frighten people by presenting big estimates of social problems, troubling trends, or apocalyptic scenarios. However, these scary numbers cannot be fully trusted. Big estimates are not always accurate, troubling trends often forget to maintain comparable measurements and depend on assumptions rather than facts, and apocalyptic scenarios fail to consider comparable costs and benefits. Advocates will use scary numbers to bring attention to their cause, but the numbers are not intended to be especially accurate portrayals of social issues.
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Overview of Cognitive Biases
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Week 6 GuidancePsychological ResearchThere are many ways to co
Week 6 Guidance
Psychological Research
There are many ways to conduct research including but not limited to an experiment, survey, case study and naturalistic observation. Before any researcher decides how research will be conducted, he or she will look at the purpose of the study, as well as the research questions and hypothesis. Each method has strengths, weaknesses and even limitations.
Researchers will consider and identify an operational definition. According to Schacter, Gilbert & Wegner (2009), an operational definition is a description of a property in terms of a concrete condition that can be measured. The first step involved in making any measurement is to identify the property, concept or thing we want to measure in concrete terms. The second step needed is to identify a way to measure what we would like to assess (Schacter, Gilbert & Wegner, 2009). This can be accomplished in a variety of ways in research.
It is essential to ensure that our data are measured in both valid and reliable ways. Validity refers to the idea that we are indeed measuring what we set out to measure. Reliability is the tendency for results to be consistent whenever and wherever it is measured.
One of the most important considerations involves the ethical issues of an experiment or study. According to American Psychological Association (APA) (2010), all research must follow the standards set forth in the APA Code of Ethics. Before any research with subjects can be complete, the Institutional Review Board (IRB) must approve all parts of the research design. Informed consent must be provided for all subjects. This involves sharing all aspects of the study, the purpose of the research, identification of the benefits that may come from the research, identification of any risks, how confidentiality will be upheld and identifying who can be contacted with questions, just to name a few. Researchers may not coerce participation in an any experiment or study. Researchers must ensure that no harm comes to anyone involved in the research as well. After an experiment is complete, researchers need to debrief all subjects and explain the true nature and purpose of the study.
If all guidelines are followed, we can obtain some fantastic and even life-changing information with continued current and proper research. This research is published in peer reviewed journals and we are able to stay on top of what is happening in the field of psychology. It truly is so exciting!
Case Study 1.2: National Security or Computer Security?
In 2017, the world was rocked by massive computer attacks, the largest hitting 2,000 organizations in 65 countries. Hackers shut down hospitals in Britain, the Chernobyl nuclear site, Ukraine’s national bank, a Russian energy company, Merck pharmaceutical, and the Danish shipping company Maersk. They locked up computer files at a number of U.S. businesses, releasing the information after users paid a ransom.
The cyber weapons used in these assaults w ...
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The topics for this webinar include:
The Problem – Why your method may be a “management placebo” and why that is the biggest risk you have Problems that many methods ignore – and problems some methods introduce What Does Work – Studies reveal some methods show consistent, measurable improvements on the forecasts and decisions of managers
Examples of Real Improvements
Overview of Applied Information Economics (AIE) Process Common Objections to quantitative methods and the misconceptions behind them
Questions & Answers
The Banality of Certainty: Organizational, ethical and cognitive pathologies ...
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3) Additionally, utilizing a utilitarian framework of calculable impact fails to provide a strong moral compass for aid under conditions of uncertainty, risking more superficial and thoughtless interventions.
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Scary numbers
- 2. What is a SCARY number? • A scary number is when research data and figures are used to frighten people. For example: • Big estimates (No One is safe from AIDS!) • Troubling trends (Unsafe at Any Speed) • Apocalyptic scenarios (Y2K)
- 3. Here’s why you can’t trust SCARY numbers: • Advocates for a cause will often use SCARY numbers as a means of standing apart from all the issues vying for your attention.
- 4. BIG Estimates cannot be trusted! • It is incredibly difficult to measure a social problem. Therefore, these big estimates are intended to scare you, without being especially accurate.
- 5. Troubling Trends cannot be trusted! • They often forget to maintain comparable measurements. • Some trends depend upon assumption rather than fact. • “Risk calculations almost never derive from experiments with human subjects” yet they are applied to human situations.
- 6. Apocalyptic Scenarios cannot be trusted! • “It is impossible to make a fair comparison between what came before and what follows unless we consider the comparable costs and benefits” (p87).
- 7. Notice people’s tendency to be pessimistic about society as a whole but optimistic about their personal situation (see opinion polls as example).