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Voting Intention Tracking Poll Dec 2010
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Fine Gael   Labour  Fianna Fail  Sinn Féin   Green Party   Independents/   Other If there were a  general  e lection  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
Fianna Fáil   Fine Gael   Labour  Sinn Féin   Green Party   Independents/   Other General election 2007 May 2010 June 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 If there were a  general  e lection  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
If there were a  general election  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 34% 23% 17% Independent 14% 2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 10% 2010
If there were a  general election  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 34% 23% 17% Independent 14% 2% 10%
If there were a  general  e lection  tomorrow, to which party  or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base:  All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 19 th  Dec 2010 Excluding undecided 2007 Election Results % % % Fine Gael 28 34 27 Labour 19 23 10 Fianna Fáil 14 17 42 Sinn Féin 12 14 7 Green Party  2 2 5 Independents/ Others 9 10 6 Undecided 16
Fine Gael   Labour  Fianna Fail  Sinn Féin   Green Party   Independents/   Other Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters. If there were a  general  e lection  tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ?  ( Base:  All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) The Spiral of Silence Assumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them.  To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election. We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.
Attitude to Voting for this Party at Next General Election FG % FF % Labour % % Definitely Will Most Likely To Probably Will Probably Won’t Definitely Won’t % (Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 900)
Strength of loyalty/disposition among claimed voters for each of the main parties LOYAL Will definitely vote for that party at next election FG % Oct 10  Dec 10 Labour % Party 1 st  Preference LIKELY Will probably vote for that party at next election, but may change mind FLOATING Not sure who to vote for at the moment, but this party seems the best of any Oct 10  Dec 10 Oct 10  Dec 10 Oct 10  Dec 10 % %
Which of the following Fianna Fail TD’s would be most likely persuade you to vote for Fianna Fail if that person was leading the party into the next General Election? (Base: All Adults 18+ - 1,000) (Q.1) Brian Lenihan Micheál Martin Mary Hanafin Brian Cowen D/K None of these All Adults Fianna Fail Voters Current  Past Potential 33 32 37 28 25 23 12 16 14 20 9 16 4 14 5 3 4 5
Confidence in Fine Gael/Labour to manage the public finances out of the current downturn ( Base:  All adults 18+) Agree strongly Agree slightly Disagree slightly Disagree strongly Don’t know Oct  2009 Feb  2010 Sept  2010 Oct  2010 25% Dec 2010 Fine  Gael Labour Fine Gael/ Labour 26% 29%
I believe Irelands economy will improve during 2011  ( Base:  All adults 18+) Agree % AGREE TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Party Support at  last GE Age Disagree 22% 46% Don’t know 32% ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region 20% 24% 56%
I believe that the budget was fair, given the economic circumstances  ( Base:  All adults 18+) Agree % AGREE TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Party Support at  last GE Age Disagree 29% 52% Don’t know 19% ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region

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SBP Dec Poll 2010 chart deck

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  • 5. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
  • 6. Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other General election 2007 May 2010 June 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 Nov 2010 Dec 2010 If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)
  • 7. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 34% 23% 17% Independent 14% 2% 2006 2007 2008 2009 10% 2010
  • 8. If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults 18+) Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party PDs 34% 23% 17% Independent 14% 2% 10%
  • 9. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT Core figures 19 th Dec 2010 Excluding undecided 2007 Election Results % % % Fine Gael 28 34 27 Labour 19 23 10 Fianna Fáil 14 17 42 Sinn Féin 12 14 7 Green Party 2 2 5 Independents/ Others 9 10 6 Undecided 16
  • 10. Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters. If there were a general e lection tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote ? ( Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+) The Spiral of Silence Assumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them. To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election. We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.
  • 11. Attitude to Voting for this Party at Next General Election FG % FF % Labour % % Definitely Will Most Likely To Probably Will Probably Won’t Definitely Won’t % (Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 900)
  • 12. Strength of loyalty/disposition among claimed voters for each of the main parties LOYAL Will definitely vote for that party at next election FG % Oct 10 Dec 10 Labour % Party 1 st Preference LIKELY Will probably vote for that party at next election, but may change mind FLOATING Not sure who to vote for at the moment, but this party seems the best of any Oct 10 Dec 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 % %
  • 13. Which of the following Fianna Fail TD’s would be most likely persuade you to vote for Fianna Fail if that person was leading the party into the next General Election? (Base: All Adults 18+ - 1,000) (Q.1) Brian Lenihan Micheál Martin Mary Hanafin Brian Cowen D/K None of these All Adults Fianna Fail Voters Current Past Potential 33 32 37 28 25 23 12 16 14 20 9 16 4 14 5 3 4 5
  • 14. Confidence in Fine Gael/Labour to manage the public finances out of the current downturn ( Base: All adults 18+) Agree strongly Agree slightly Disagree slightly Disagree strongly Don’t know Oct 2009 Feb 2010 Sept 2010 Oct 2010 25% Dec 2010 Fine Gael Labour Fine Gael/ Labour 26% 29%
  • 15. I believe Irelands economy will improve during 2011 ( Base: All adults 18+) Agree % AGREE TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Party Support at last GE Age Disagree 22% 46% Don’t know 32% ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region 20% 24% 56%
  • 16. I believe that the budget was fair, given the economic circumstances ( Base: All adults 18+) Agree % AGREE TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Gender Party Support at last GE Age Disagree 29% 52% Don’t know 19% ABC1 C2DE Dublin ROL Munster Conn/Ulster Social Class Region