Eletropaulo reported a loss of R$ 324.1 million in 3Q05 compared to a net income of R$ 136.8 million in 2Q05. Key factors included a tariff adjustment of 2.12% effective July 4, 2005, the issuance of R$ 800 million in debentures in September, and a significant increase in operating expenses including a R$ 346.4 million provision for doubtful debts. While revenues declined, expenses rose due to higher personnel costs, increased tariff quotas, and the amortization of regulatory assets, leading to a large quarterly loss despite an adjusted EBITDA of R$ 400.3 million.
H1 2009 IFRS Results
- Despite challenging economic conditions, the company reported sound operating results in the first half of 2009.
- Total deposits decreased 4.6% year-over-year while loans decreased 3.5%, with the loan-to-deposit ratio increasing 5.9 percentage points.
- Net profit decreased 58.8% year-over-year however total operating income increased 17.5% and operating costs decreased 13.1% leading to a 14.9 percentage point decrease in the cost to income ratio.
This investor presentation provides an overview of macroeconomic conditions and the retail market in Russia:
- The Russian economy grew 3.7% in Q2 2011 and is estimated to grow 4% for the full year. Inflation is estimated between 7.5-8.5% and unemployment fell to 6.4%.
- Retail supply has grown steadily to over 3 million square meters while vacancy remains below 1% in prime malls. Prime rental rates are stable around 4,000 rubles per square meter annually.
- Base retail rents have increased from 1,300 to 1,350 rubles per square meter annually in the past year as the sector continues its recovery from the economic downturn
The document summarizes key points from a presentation given at a ULI Fall Meeting in Miami Beach, FL in October 2008 regarding the global credit crunch and its impacts. Some of the key points include: construction completions in the US are much lower now than in the 1980s and will not likely cause overbuilding; commercial mortgage debt outstanding in the US grew significantly as a percentage of GDP leading up to the credit crunch; global investment sales transaction volumes and property values have declined significantly due to the credit crunch; and the world's reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf region has significant geopolitical implications.
The document provides key economic indicators and facts about the Indian economy. It shows India's population, poverty rates, literacy rates, and other indicators have greatly improved since the 1980s. While agriculture still employs many, the services and manufacturing sectors have grown. Challenges remain in reducing poverty and the fiscal deficit. India has experienced strong GDP growth in recent years and its successes include the IT, pharmaceutical and manufacturing industries.
There is a growing sense of urgency for bipartisan commitment to restoring America's competitive edge through innovation. How can we find the right mix of private sector dynamism and government support, as well as the political consensus required, to stay ahead of global competition and boost long-term prosperity?
- Growing income inequality in the decades before the 1929 and 2007 crises simultaneously increased demand for credit from the lower/middle classes to maintain living standards and supply of credit from high income groups seeking investment opportunities.
- Inequality and household leverage both sharply increased together in the periods preceding the two crises.
- Earnings of the top decile increased over 40% cumulatively while earnings of the bottom decile decreased over 30% from 1980-2000.
- Debt levels were flat or lower for high income groups but sharply higher for the bottom 95% leading up to the 2007 crisis.
Eletropaulo reported a loss of R$ 324.1 million in 3Q05 compared to a net income of R$ 136.8 million in 2Q05. Key factors included a tariff adjustment of 2.12% effective July 4, 2005, the issuance of R$ 800 million in debentures in September, and a significant increase in operating expenses including a R$ 346.4 million provision for doubtful debts. While revenues declined, expenses rose due to higher personnel costs, increased tariff quotas, and the amortization of regulatory assets, leading to a large quarterly loss despite an adjusted EBITDA of R$ 400.3 million.
H1 2009 IFRS Results
- Despite challenging economic conditions, the company reported sound operating results in the first half of 2009.
- Total deposits decreased 4.6% year-over-year while loans decreased 3.5%, with the loan-to-deposit ratio increasing 5.9 percentage points.
- Net profit decreased 58.8% year-over-year however total operating income increased 17.5% and operating costs decreased 13.1% leading to a 14.9 percentage point decrease in the cost to income ratio.
This investor presentation provides an overview of macroeconomic conditions and the retail market in Russia:
- The Russian economy grew 3.7% in Q2 2011 and is estimated to grow 4% for the full year. Inflation is estimated between 7.5-8.5% and unemployment fell to 6.4%.
- Retail supply has grown steadily to over 3 million square meters while vacancy remains below 1% in prime malls. Prime rental rates are stable around 4,000 rubles per square meter annually.
- Base retail rents have increased from 1,300 to 1,350 rubles per square meter annually in the past year as the sector continues its recovery from the economic downturn
The document summarizes key points from a presentation given at a ULI Fall Meeting in Miami Beach, FL in October 2008 regarding the global credit crunch and its impacts. Some of the key points include: construction completions in the US are much lower now than in the 1980s and will not likely cause overbuilding; commercial mortgage debt outstanding in the US grew significantly as a percentage of GDP leading up to the credit crunch; global investment sales transaction volumes and property values have declined significantly due to the credit crunch; and the world's reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf region has significant geopolitical implications.
The document provides key economic indicators and facts about the Indian economy. It shows India's population, poverty rates, literacy rates, and other indicators have greatly improved since the 1980s. While agriculture still employs many, the services and manufacturing sectors have grown. Challenges remain in reducing poverty and the fiscal deficit. India has experienced strong GDP growth in recent years and its successes include the IT, pharmaceutical and manufacturing industries.
There is a growing sense of urgency for bipartisan commitment to restoring America's competitive edge through innovation. How can we find the right mix of private sector dynamism and government support, as well as the political consensus required, to stay ahead of global competition and boost long-term prosperity?
- Growing income inequality in the decades before the 1929 and 2007 crises simultaneously increased demand for credit from the lower/middle classes to maintain living standards and supply of credit from high income groups seeking investment opportunities.
- Inequality and household leverage both sharply increased together in the periods preceding the two crises.
- Earnings of the top decile increased over 40% cumulatively while earnings of the bottom decile decreased over 30% from 1980-2000.
- Debt levels were flat or lower for high income groups but sharply higher for the bottom 95% leading up to the 2007 crisis.
This document discusses value investing and why it is an effective strategy. It provides examples of several famous value investors like Warren Buffett who have achieved high returns over long periods of time by focusing on finding undervalued companies rather than predictions or technical analysis. The key aspects of the value investing approach discussed are finding companies trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, having a long-term orientation, and not worrying about short-term market fluctuations.
The document contains 36 figures that show trends in income, wealth, poverty, health insurance coverage, and the labor market in the United States over the past several decades. Many of the figures show a rise in inequality, with stagnant wages for the middle class and bottom half while incomes rise sharply for the top 1% and 5%. Other trends include a decline in private sector pensions and union membership rates.
The document shows the debt to GDP ratios of various countries from 2003 to 2011. Many European countries like Belgium, Greece, Italy, and Portugal saw their debt/GDP ratios rise sharply above 100% during this period. The United States also saw its debt/GDP ratio increase significantly but remain below 100%.
Nicholas Mays | Evaluating current market reforms in the English NHSSax Institute
Professor Nicholas Mays, Professor of Health Policy at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK, presented to the HARC network in January 2008 on evaluating current market reforms in the UK National Health Service.
HARC stands for the Hospital Alliance for Research Collaboration. HARC is a collaborative network of researchers, health managers, clinicians and policy makers based in NSW, Australia managed by the Sax Institute.
HARC Forums bring members of the HARC network together to discuss the latest research and analysis about important issues facing our hospitals.
For more information visit saxinstitute.org.au.
The document summarizes the outlook for the U.S. housing market and discusses policy options to address troubled housing conditions. It analyzes data on home prices, sales, permits, and delinquency rates. It also examines factors influencing housing such as inventory levels, unemployment, and lending standards. Key recommendations include stabilizing home prices, encouraging sustainable homeownership through responsible lending, and reengaging the private sector to help achieve long-term solutions.
2002 - Second Annual Analysts & Investors Meeting Airline Market Trends & O...Embraer RI
This document discusses trends in the global airline market, with a focus on regional markets in North America and Europe. Some key points:
1) In 2001, regional airlines in North America accounted for 55% of the market share, while Europe was 26%.
2) In the US, regional airline traffic and market share has been increasing over time, growing from 3% of domestic traffic in 1970 to an estimated 14% in 2010.
3) The airline industry experienced a downturn in 2001, with year-over-year growth rates declining significantly for both major and regional carriers in North America and Europe.
The National Association of REALTORS' Research Division is located in Washington D.C. and has 17 staff members including many economists. The Research Division produces daily information on housing and the economy and reports monthly on existing and pending home sales. All of the Research Division's work can be found on their website at www.realtor.org/research.
The local housing market report for Austin, Texas in the third quarter of 2009 found:
- The median home price was $189,100, down slightly from a year ago but higher than the national median of $177,900.
- Existing home sales growth remained sluggish at -1.9% compared to 5.9% nationally.
- Job losses continued in Austin but at a lower rate than the national average, and the unemployment rate of 7.2% was below the 9.8% national rate.
- Housing affordability was better than historical averages and stronger than the national market due to lower mortgage payments as a percentage of income.
The document summarizes recent U.S. economic growth since 2009 in three charts:
1. Real U.S. GDP growth has gradually strengthened since mid-2009, ranging from -6.7% to 3.9% per quarter, though it remains below pre-crisis levels.
2. Consumption, investment, and exports have been the main drivers of growth, contributing over 6 percentage points to GDP since 2009, while government spending has been a drag.
3. U.S. growth has outpaced other major advanced economies affected by the global financial crisis such as Germany, Japan, and the UK.
Pine Technical report: CDI versus TJLP, volatility versus trendBanco Pine
This report compares the CDI (Certificado de Depósito Interbancário), an overnight interest rate in Brazil, to the TJLP (Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo), a long-term interest rate. It finds that while the CDI has fluctuated more due to deviations in inflation from targets, the TJLP has remained stable between 5-5.5% to encourage long-term private investments. Lower interest rates through the Selic rate and CDI aim to stimulate Brazil's slowing GDP growth by expanding private investments and credit. The report provides graphs and analysis showing the relationship between these interest rates, inflation, and economic growth in Brazil.
The global PV market is growing rapidly, led by Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, and the US, which accounted for 76% of total installations in 2010. While these major markets are expected to see continued growth in 2011, policy changes will reduce incentives and drive down solar prices. The document analyzes market dynamics and incentive cuts and concludes that high demand will continue through October 2010 due to attractive returns, but prices must decrease in late 2010 and 2011 to maintain reasonable returns given lower incentives.
The document summarizes several solid reasons to invest in Canada:
1) Canada has a relatively strong economy compared to other G7 nations, with expected above-average GDP growth through 2010-2011 according to various forecasts.
2) Canada has enjoyed healthy employment gains over the past decade and low unemployment.
3) Canada has a sound fiscal position, with federal budget surpluses until recently and expected return to surplus in the medium term, as well as relatively low national debt levels.
- The median home price in the Portland area declined 13.9% over the last year to $246,200 as of Q2 2009, continuing a weakening trend.
- Local job losses over the last year were sharp at -56,800 (-5.5%), contributing to weak housing demand.
- Mortgage rates remain low while affordability is improving, with the monthly mortgage payment-to-income ratio at a historically strong 15.4% in Q2 2009.
- Foreclosure rates on prime loans are low at 0.4% while rates on subprime and Alt-A loans show large local increases compared to a year ago but remain below national averages.
The document compares the performance of different portfolio allocations from 2001-2004 and 1Q 2004. It shows that portfolios with a mix of stocks and bonds significantly outperformed those with 100% stock allocations during periods of market decline from 2001-2003. The key finding is that asset allocation, or how assets are divided among asset classes like stocks and bonds, has the biggest impact on portfolio performance rather than choices about specific securities or market timing.
The document summarizes key indicators of the US housing market and broader economy. It shows that while unemployment and consumer confidence remain at historically low levels, mortgage rates have declined significantly. Existing home sales have stabilized at low levels recently, and housing inventory, while still high, has started to decrease from its peak. This suggests the housing market may be approaching a bottom in 2009 if these trends continue.
Tom Campbell Budget Presentation 5 04 09 Color 1kurtisfechtmeyer
Tom Campbell is an economist and former politician who has held several important government positions in California and at the federal level. This document provides background on Campbell and then summarizes the current economic conditions in the U.S. and California's fiscal situation through a series of charts and analyses of GDP, unemployment, housing prices, productivity, federal budgets, state revenues/expenditures, debt, and taxes. Key points made include the large increases in the U.S. money supply, California's budget deficits and growing debts, and that California has high tax rates compared to other states.
This document discusses strategies for introducing the Lee Cooper brand into the Russian market. It analyzes economic and consumer spending trends in Russia, finding signs of recovery despite declines in GDP. Key retail channels for middle-income consumers are identified as shopping malls and boutiques. The most viable regions are said to be Central Russia and the Urals. Potential partners discussed include VF Corporation, Fiba Holding, and Jamil Co. Group. Major cities and retailers are evaluated for their suitability, with an emphasis on department stores and independent brands stores in major cities.
S394 Presentation to NC Senate Finance Committee 4/3/2013PublicFinanceTV
Senate Bill 394 proposes lowering tax rates in North Carolina to make the tax system more competitive, simpler, and fairer. It aims to lower major tax rates like personal income, corporate, and sales taxes while keeping the plan revenue-neutral. The current tax system relies too heavily on volatile sources like corporate income tax and the non-withholding portion of personal income tax. The sales tax base has also been shrinking as a percentage of the overall economy.
The document analyzes why Japan is not like Greece in facing its debt crisis and argues that Japan can sustain its debt for the following key reasons: 1) Japan has a large trade surplus and net international asset position that can finance its debt, 2) interest payments on Japan's debt remain low despite rising debt levels, and 3) Japan has policy tools like quantitative easing to boost demand and reduce deflationary pressures. However, the document notes Japan's growth remains weak with productivity gains slowing.
Presentazione del prof. Andrea Renda nell'ambito del seminiario "Verso una revisione della Strategia EU 2020: scenari ed opportunità future".
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Roma, 7/7/2014
Presentazione di Giorgia Giovannetti, Università di Firenze & EUI, in occasione dell'incontro con il min. Padoan "L’Italia e il governo dell’economia europea"
Roma, 17/03/2016
This document discusses value investing and why it is an effective strategy. It provides examples of several famous value investors like Warren Buffett who have achieved high returns over long periods of time by focusing on finding undervalued companies rather than predictions or technical analysis. The key aspects of the value investing approach discussed are finding companies trading at a discount to their intrinsic value, having a long-term orientation, and not worrying about short-term market fluctuations.
The document contains 36 figures that show trends in income, wealth, poverty, health insurance coverage, and the labor market in the United States over the past several decades. Many of the figures show a rise in inequality, with stagnant wages for the middle class and bottom half while incomes rise sharply for the top 1% and 5%. Other trends include a decline in private sector pensions and union membership rates.
The document shows the debt to GDP ratios of various countries from 2003 to 2011. Many European countries like Belgium, Greece, Italy, and Portugal saw their debt/GDP ratios rise sharply above 100% during this period. The United States also saw its debt/GDP ratio increase significantly but remain below 100%.
Nicholas Mays | Evaluating current market reforms in the English NHSSax Institute
Professor Nicholas Mays, Professor of Health Policy at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in the UK, presented to the HARC network in January 2008 on evaluating current market reforms in the UK National Health Service.
HARC stands for the Hospital Alliance for Research Collaboration. HARC is a collaborative network of researchers, health managers, clinicians and policy makers based in NSW, Australia managed by the Sax Institute.
HARC Forums bring members of the HARC network together to discuss the latest research and analysis about important issues facing our hospitals.
For more information visit saxinstitute.org.au.
The document summarizes the outlook for the U.S. housing market and discusses policy options to address troubled housing conditions. It analyzes data on home prices, sales, permits, and delinquency rates. It also examines factors influencing housing such as inventory levels, unemployment, and lending standards. Key recommendations include stabilizing home prices, encouraging sustainable homeownership through responsible lending, and reengaging the private sector to help achieve long-term solutions.
2002 - Second Annual Analysts & Investors Meeting Airline Market Trends & O...Embraer RI
This document discusses trends in the global airline market, with a focus on regional markets in North America and Europe. Some key points:
1) In 2001, regional airlines in North America accounted for 55% of the market share, while Europe was 26%.
2) In the US, regional airline traffic and market share has been increasing over time, growing from 3% of domestic traffic in 1970 to an estimated 14% in 2010.
3) The airline industry experienced a downturn in 2001, with year-over-year growth rates declining significantly for both major and regional carriers in North America and Europe.
The National Association of REALTORS' Research Division is located in Washington D.C. and has 17 staff members including many economists. The Research Division produces daily information on housing and the economy and reports monthly on existing and pending home sales. All of the Research Division's work can be found on their website at www.realtor.org/research.
The local housing market report for Austin, Texas in the third quarter of 2009 found:
- The median home price was $189,100, down slightly from a year ago but higher than the national median of $177,900.
- Existing home sales growth remained sluggish at -1.9% compared to 5.9% nationally.
- Job losses continued in Austin but at a lower rate than the national average, and the unemployment rate of 7.2% was below the 9.8% national rate.
- Housing affordability was better than historical averages and stronger than the national market due to lower mortgage payments as a percentage of income.
The document summarizes recent U.S. economic growth since 2009 in three charts:
1. Real U.S. GDP growth has gradually strengthened since mid-2009, ranging from -6.7% to 3.9% per quarter, though it remains below pre-crisis levels.
2. Consumption, investment, and exports have been the main drivers of growth, contributing over 6 percentage points to GDP since 2009, while government spending has been a drag.
3. U.S. growth has outpaced other major advanced economies affected by the global financial crisis such as Germany, Japan, and the UK.
Pine Technical report: CDI versus TJLP, volatility versus trendBanco Pine
This report compares the CDI (Certificado de Depósito Interbancário), an overnight interest rate in Brazil, to the TJLP (Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo), a long-term interest rate. It finds that while the CDI has fluctuated more due to deviations in inflation from targets, the TJLP has remained stable between 5-5.5% to encourage long-term private investments. Lower interest rates through the Selic rate and CDI aim to stimulate Brazil's slowing GDP growth by expanding private investments and credit. The report provides graphs and analysis showing the relationship between these interest rates, inflation, and economic growth in Brazil.
The global PV market is growing rapidly, led by Germany, Italy, Czech Republic, and the US, which accounted for 76% of total installations in 2010. While these major markets are expected to see continued growth in 2011, policy changes will reduce incentives and drive down solar prices. The document analyzes market dynamics and incentive cuts and concludes that high demand will continue through October 2010 due to attractive returns, but prices must decrease in late 2010 and 2011 to maintain reasonable returns given lower incentives.
The document summarizes several solid reasons to invest in Canada:
1) Canada has a relatively strong economy compared to other G7 nations, with expected above-average GDP growth through 2010-2011 according to various forecasts.
2) Canada has enjoyed healthy employment gains over the past decade and low unemployment.
3) Canada has a sound fiscal position, with federal budget surpluses until recently and expected return to surplus in the medium term, as well as relatively low national debt levels.
- The median home price in the Portland area declined 13.9% over the last year to $246,200 as of Q2 2009, continuing a weakening trend.
- Local job losses over the last year were sharp at -56,800 (-5.5%), contributing to weak housing demand.
- Mortgage rates remain low while affordability is improving, with the monthly mortgage payment-to-income ratio at a historically strong 15.4% in Q2 2009.
- Foreclosure rates on prime loans are low at 0.4% while rates on subprime and Alt-A loans show large local increases compared to a year ago but remain below national averages.
The document compares the performance of different portfolio allocations from 2001-2004 and 1Q 2004. It shows that portfolios with a mix of stocks and bonds significantly outperformed those with 100% stock allocations during periods of market decline from 2001-2003. The key finding is that asset allocation, or how assets are divided among asset classes like stocks and bonds, has the biggest impact on portfolio performance rather than choices about specific securities or market timing.
The document summarizes key indicators of the US housing market and broader economy. It shows that while unemployment and consumer confidence remain at historically low levels, mortgage rates have declined significantly. Existing home sales have stabilized at low levels recently, and housing inventory, while still high, has started to decrease from its peak. This suggests the housing market may be approaching a bottom in 2009 if these trends continue.
Tom Campbell Budget Presentation 5 04 09 Color 1kurtisfechtmeyer
Tom Campbell is an economist and former politician who has held several important government positions in California and at the federal level. This document provides background on Campbell and then summarizes the current economic conditions in the U.S. and California's fiscal situation through a series of charts and analyses of GDP, unemployment, housing prices, productivity, federal budgets, state revenues/expenditures, debt, and taxes. Key points made include the large increases in the U.S. money supply, California's budget deficits and growing debts, and that California has high tax rates compared to other states.
This document discusses strategies for introducing the Lee Cooper brand into the Russian market. It analyzes economic and consumer spending trends in Russia, finding signs of recovery despite declines in GDP. Key retail channels for middle-income consumers are identified as shopping malls and boutiques. The most viable regions are said to be Central Russia and the Urals. Potential partners discussed include VF Corporation, Fiba Holding, and Jamil Co. Group. Major cities and retailers are evaluated for their suitability, with an emphasis on department stores and independent brands stores in major cities.
S394 Presentation to NC Senate Finance Committee 4/3/2013PublicFinanceTV
Senate Bill 394 proposes lowering tax rates in North Carolina to make the tax system more competitive, simpler, and fairer. It aims to lower major tax rates like personal income, corporate, and sales taxes while keeping the plan revenue-neutral. The current tax system relies too heavily on volatile sources like corporate income tax and the non-withholding portion of personal income tax. The sales tax base has also been shrinking as a percentage of the overall economy.
The document analyzes why Japan is not like Greece in facing its debt crisis and argues that Japan can sustain its debt for the following key reasons: 1) Japan has a large trade surplus and net international asset position that can finance its debt, 2) interest payments on Japan's debt remain low despite rising debt levels, and 3) Japan has policy tools like quantitative easing to boost demand and reduce deflationary pressures. However, the document notes Japan's growth remains weak with productivity gains slowing.
Presentazione del prof. Andrea Renda nell'ambito del seminiario "Verso una revisione della Strategia EU 2020: scenari ed opportunità future".
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Roma, 7/7/2014
Presentazione di Giorgia Giovannetti, Università di Firenze & EUI, in occasione dell'incontro con il min. Padoan "L’Italia e il governo dell’economia europea"
Roma, 17/03/2016
LA TEMPESTA PERFETTA
Cittadini europei di fronte a sicurezza, immigrazione e crisi economica
Presentazione del rapporto sulle percezioni dei cittadini europei su temi quali la crisi economica europea, l'emergenza rifugiati e i recenti attentati terroristici
Presentazione di Dario Scannapieco, Vicepresidente Banca europea per gli investimenti, Presidente, Fondo europeo per gli investimenti, durante la conferenza:
Tornare ad investire in Europa. Piano Juncker: un buon inizio?
Torino, 3 luglio 2015
Seminar with Christopher Michaelsen, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, University of New South Wales (UNSW), Sidney, Australia - See more at: http://www.iai.it/en/eventi/role-non-permanent-members-united-nations-security-council
IAI seminar on "The Fight against ISIS and the US Policy in the Middle East", with Daniel Serwer, Middle East Institute and School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
Rome, 19 March 2015
This document discusses entrepreneurship and early stage capital challenges. It notes that while about half a million startups are formed in the US each year, creating all net new jobs, most struggle to survive the "valley of death" between seed funding and later stage capital. Venture capital funds are now too large for most startups, so angels have become important early investors, though South Carolina lags in VC and angel funding per capita. The Upstate Capital Angel Network (UCAN) aims to help fill this gap by investing in scalable Southeast startups, though barriers around talent, technology costs, and regulations still exist. The presentation closes by praising entrepreneurs for the risks and sacrifices they take to drive economic growth.
Use of Micro and Macro Frameworks in Estimating
Poverty Implications of Changes in Food Prices
Presented by Maros Ivanic at the AGRODEP Workshop on Analytical Tools for Food Prices and Price Volatility
June 6-7, 2011 • Dakar, Senegal
For more information on the workshop or to see the latest version of this presentation visit: http://www.agrodep.org/first-annual-workshop
1) The document discusses Asia's economic growth and integration over the past few decades as well as potential challenges going forward, including decoupling from other regions.
2) It notes that Asia's share of global GDP growth has significantly increased since the 1970s as emerging Asian economies have rapidly developed.
3) However, ongoing trade tensions and a potential decoupling of certain countries from integrated global supply chains could pose economic risks for Asia in the future.
1) The document discusses Asia's economic growth and integration over the past few decades as well as potential challenges going forward, including decoupling from other regions.
2) It notes that Asia's share of global GDP growth has significantly increased since the 1970s as emerging Asian economies have rapidly developed.
3) However, ongoing trade tensions and a potential decoupling of certain countries from integrated global supply chains could pose economic risks for Asia in the future.
1. The document discusses Erwin Rode's presentation on economic prospects for South Africa and the world.
2. Rode predicts that world and European growth will remain poor for many years, around 10 years, due to the ongoing financial crisis.
3. For South Africa, Rode forecasts lower growth in the coming years as a result of weak global growth and infrastructure constraints domestically, although China may provide some support. Taxes and tariffs are also expected to rise.
The document summarizes the economic impacts of austerity measures in Canada. It argues that [1] austerity will likely lead to another recession as it has in other countries, [2] government debt ratios are manageable and deficits could be eliminated through fair tax measures instead of spending cuts, and [3] austerity disproportionately impacts working people and increases inequality. The response should expose the failures of neoliberalism and privatization, advocate for fair taxes, resist commodification of public services, and build alliances through mobilization and democratic participation.
The document analyzes economic indicators in Jamaica from 1989/90 to 2010/11. It shows that the exchange rate depreciated at annual rates of 14.67% from 1989 to 2007 and 5.2% from 2007 to 2011. Annual inflation averaged 19.68% from 1989 to 2007 and 11.68% from 2008 to 2011. Government domestic and total debt increased substantially over the periods analyzed, with domestic debt rising by 4,200% from 1990/91 to 2010/11. External debt also rose sharply.
Navigating the Storm: The Impact of the Economic Crisis and Strategic Respons...Ga S
- The global economic crisis has severely impacted GDP growth rates and consumer spending worldwide. The telecom industry is seeing declining revenues across content, media, devices and services.
- Countries in the Middle East region are being unevenly impacted based on their economic diversification and dependence on oil exports. Consumer and business confidence has sharply fallen across the region.
- Telecom operators face declining revenues and will need balanced strategies including cost optimization, pricing changes, focusing on in-demand services, and M&A to navigate the crisis and pursue growth opportunities.
The document discusses challenges facing efforts to reduce economic disparities between regions in England. It notes that while the goal is to narrow gaps in growth rates, economic performance has always varied between cities and little progress has been made. Barriers include a lack of consensus around the role of core cities, artificial administrative boundaries, and departments prioritizing different approaches. Resolving tensions between priorities of growth places versus places in need remains difficult politically.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
Presentation by GWP Chair Dr Letitia A Obeng at the conference "Water Securit...Global Water Partnership
Presentation by GWP Chair Dr Letitia A Obeng at the conference "Water Security, Risk and Society", 16-18 April, 2012 at St Hugh's College, University of Oxford, UK
http://www.gwp.org/en/gwp-in-action/Events/Water-Security-Risk-and-Society/
The document discusses the implications of a lower interest rate environment. It outlines how interest rates have declined to low levels not seen in decades. It explores reasons for the low rates, including reduced inflation and a credible Federal Reserve policy. The document examines the implications for investors like pension funds and insurers, including challenges from extended liability durations. It also looks at how institutions have responded by revisiting asset allocation studies.
Greek Public Debt Crisis and Options for a SolutionPhilip Ammerman
Navigator Consulting Group Ltd. presented its economic forecast for Greece and its scenarios for the public debt crisis at a conference organised by the Open University of Catalonia and AENI on May 25-27, 2011.
The theme of the conference was to review the present status of the European public finance crisis and to examine its likely future repercussions and potential solutions.
Navigator’s Hellenic Debt Forecast provides an integrated model for assessing central government debt, tax revenue and expenditure, interest costs, total debt and debt service costs. It is one of the most comprehensive such models available, and is continually updated to reflect the current situation in the country.
1) Foreign aid plays an important role in Pakistan's economy, accounting for a significant portion of capital inflows and government revenues. However, aid levels have declined sharply in recent years.
2) Pakistan faces major security challenges from conflicts in neighboring Afghanistan that have imposed huge economic costs on Pakistan in the form of damaged infrastructure and disrupted economic activity.
3) Effective use of foreign aid could help Pakistan address both its economic and security issues by funding development priorities like power, transportation and education, which also have indirect security benefits by promoting stability and counteracting extremism. However, reforms are needed to improve aid effectiveness.
This document provides an overview of COST Action TU1001, also known as P3T3, which studies public-private partnerships in transport. The objectives of P3T3 are to develop a theoretical basis for PPPs grounded in multidisciplinary analysis of cross-sectoral data. It aims to analyze decision-making processes, performance evaluation, and the impact of external events on PPPs. P3T3 consists of over 100 researchers from about 50 institutes organized into working groups on decision models, performance, modal contexts, national contexts, and external impacts.
The document discusses the pressures facing the global economy and their implications for South Africa. It provides data showing slowing growth and rising debt in developed economies like Europe and the US. It also notes signs of slowing growth in emerging markets like China. This weak external environment poses challenges for South Africa's economy. However, some domestic factors such as strong growth in household deposits and rebounds in employment and the stock market could help support South Africa.
This document discusses the challenges and opportunities facing middle-income countries as global wealth shifts. It notes that while shifting wealth has created opportunities through reduced poverty and new development resources, middle-income countries face challenges around productivity growth, social cohesion, environmental sustainability, and maintaining fiscal revenue levels. Specific challenges discussed include the risk of falling into a "middle income trap" with slowing growth, rising inequality and labor disputes, high youth unemployment in Africa, and tax revenues generally being lower in Latin American countries compared to OECD nations.
The financial crisis has had significant social impacts on small states. Small states are more dependent on services like tourism which have been hard hit by the crisis. Tourism makes up a large portion of GDP and employment in small states. The crisis has led to declines in GDP, government revenue, employment, and remittances in small states. This has increased poverty, inequality, unemployment, especially among vulnerable groups like women, youth, and the low-skilled. Progress made towards social goals is now threatened by the crisis.
Presentation coidine 2012 cesar sobrinoCésar Sobrino
This document analyzes the business cycle relationship between the US and Puerto Rico using quarterly and annual GDP and economic index data from 1947-2009. It finds that while Puerto Rico and the US do not have a synchronized common business cycle, they do share a non-synchronized "codependent" cycle with a one quarter lag, indicating Puerto Rico's economy is impacted by but does not move in tandem with the US economy. The study has implications for countercyclical monetary policies between Puerto Rico and the US Federal Reserve.
Leslie Appleton-Young, Chief Economist/California Association of Realtors presents his annual report to the California Desert Association of Realtors.
The Palm Springs desert area (Coachella Valley) housing market is on the upswing once again.
Similar to The Euro Area Crisis and Reforms Fiscal Discipline and Growth (20)
Anche quest’anno l’Istituto Affari Internazionali sceglie di dedicare ai giovani under 26 il suo premio annuale intitolato "Giovani talenti per l'Italia, l'Europa e il mondo", per ascoltare le loro idee, le loro paure ed i loro sogni sull’Europa e sul mondo.
I vincitori della seconda edizione sono stati invitati a discutere l’impatto del digitale e dei social media sulla democrazia oggi, durante un dibattito pubblico, alla presenza di personalità di rilievo del mondo politico-istituzionale, economico, culturale, dello spettacolo e dello sport.
Il dibattito, moderato dalla giornalista Rai Eva Giovannini, si è articolato sotto forma di dialogo tra i giovani vincitori ed un panel di esperti che, nei più diversi ambiti di attività, hanno maturato esperienze e visioni internazionali.
Durante la manifestazione è stato anche conferito per la prima volta un premio speciale per la comunicazione intitolato a Antonio Megalizzi, il giornalista italiano ucciso nell’attentato di Strasburgo dell’11 dicembre 2018.
L'evento è stato sostenuto dal Ministero degli Affari esteri e della Cooperazione internazionale, dalla Compagnia di San Paolo e da Edison SpA.
Presentation by Marco Committeri and Pietro Tommasino Bank of Italy
Conference on:
“Sovereign Debt Crises: Prevention and Management"
Rome, 10 December 2018
Presentation by Marcello Messori, Director, Luiss School of European Political Economy
Conference on:
“Sovereign Debt Crises: Prevention and Management"
Rome, 10 December 2018
Presentation by Beatrice Weder di Mauro, President, Centre for Economic Policy Research
Conference on:
“Sovereign Debt Crises: Prevention and Management"
Rome, 10 December 2018
Presentation by Alessandro Leipold, Chief Economist, The Lisbon Council
Conference on:
“Sovereign Debt Crises: Prevention and Management"
Rome, 10 December 2018
This document discusses precautionary credit lines provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a crisis prevention tool. It finds that precautionary credit lines have provided benefits by deterring capital outflows, serving as a commitment device, and accelerating crisis response when needed. However, they could also overstretch available IMF funds and reduce incentives for countries to maintain robust economic policies. Empirical evidence suggests precautionary credit lines have lowered borrowing costs and reduced financial market volatility for recipient countries. However, relatively few countries have utilized these facilities, possibly due to stigma or fear of disqualification. There is ongoing debate around prequalifying more countries and making credit lines continuously available rather than expecting an "exit."
Presentation by Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Professor, University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and Paris School of Economics
Conference on:
“Sovereign Debt Crises: Prevention and Management"
Rome, 10 December 2018
1) The document discusses the distinction between fiscal sustainability and debt sustainability. Fiscal sustainability refers to a fiscal stance that is unlikely to lead to a roll over crisis, while debt sustainability means public debt itself is unsustainable even after returning to fiscal sustainability, requiring debt restructuring.
2) It compares the relative costs of adjusting the primary balance orthodoxly versus restructuring debt. Adjusting the primary balance risks larger output costs from demand effects, while debt restructuring risks a default tax, wealth loss for domestic debt holders, and uncertainty about the sufficiency of restructuring and return to markets.
3) Restructuring debt also risks reputational costs that depend on the amount of net present value loss imposed on debt
Presentation by Marco BUTI, Director-General European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs
Conference on:
“Sovereign Debt Crises: Prevention and Management"
Rome, 10 December 2018
Il Premio IAI è un'iniziativa rivolta ai giovani fino ai 25 anni per coinvolgerli nel dibattito sul ruolo delle relazioni internazionali nella vita quotidiana.
I vincitori hanno discusso la propria visione dell'Europa e le loro proposte di rilancio in un dibattito serrato con personalità del mondo culturale, dello sport, economico e istituzionale, moderato da Ilaria Sotis, giornalista Radio1 Rai.
Per maggiori informazioni:
http://www.iai.it/it/eventi/giovani-talenti-litalia-leuropa-e-il-mondo
Transatlantic Security Symposium 2018
Transatlantic Security in an Age of Uncertainty
Rome, 14-15 June 2018
Presentation by Anthony H. Cordesman,Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Transatlantic Security Symposium 2018
Transatlantic Security in an Age of Uncertainty
Rome, 14-15 June 2018
Presentation by Anthony H. Cordesman,Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Presentation by Dries Acke Director, Energy Systems Programme, European Climate Foundation, at IAI conference on "Decarbonising Italy's electricity system - Delivering the energy and climate Sustainable Development Goals"
Rome, 30/05/2018
L'attenzione, l'interesse e il coinvolgimento per le notizie di politica e cronaca internazionali
Presentazione del dott. Nando PAGNONCELLI, Presidente, IPSOS Italia in occasione della tavola rotonda IAI-Ispi su: Why Think Tanks Matter in the Era of Digital and Political Disruptions
Presentation by Toshiya Tsugami, President of Tsugami Workshop, Ltd., at the IAI conference "Xi Jinping’s China: Are Japan and Europe on the same page?" organised in cooperation with the Japanese Embassy in Rome
Juzhong Zhuang, Deputy Chief Economist, Asian Development Bank presents the Asian Development Outlook Update during a IAI seminar "Developing Asia and the Pacific"
The Euro Area Crisis and Reforms Fiscal Discipline and Growth
1. The Euro Area Crisis and Reforms
Fiscal Discipline and Growth
André Sapir
Professor of Economics, Université Libre de Bruxelles
Senior Fellow, Bruegel
2. 2
Two views about what went wrong and how to fix it
Diagnosis. The system was fundamentally flawed: a monetary
union needs a political union
Remedy: “more Europe”
Diagnosis: The system was not fundamentally flawed: a monetary
union among sovereign states can work, provided each state
respects the rules
Remedy: “better Europe”
3. 3
The original incompatible trio
You cannot have a situation with
» Fixed exchange rates
» Financial integration
» Monetary autonomy
Financial integration was central in the arguments in favor of
monetary union, yet its consequences for financial stability was
largely ignored. No integration of financial policies.
The focus of Maastricht was on price stability. The ECB is a rare
case of a CB NOT established in response to a banking crisis
» The primary objective of the ESCB is to maintain price stability
» The ESCB shall contribute to the stability of the financial system
4. 4
Lesson from the crisis: the new incompatible trio
You cannot have a monetary union with
» Financial stability
» Financial integration
» Inappropriate common fiscal and banking policies and institutions
Especially with important economic differences between countries
5. 5
An important benchmark: The Swedish ‘90s crisis
Around the same time as Maastricht, Sweden suffered a major
financial and then banking crisis
The Swedish response to the crisis is generally regarded as a
model for other countries
The components of the Swedish strategy:
» Comprehensive and rapid banking resolution
» Supportive macroeconomic policies
Fiscal expansion => Next pages
Monetary expansion, including currency depreciation
» Structural reforms
Fiscal reform
Product market liberalization
Labor market and social reforms
10. 10
The system failed
Prior to the crisis, surveillance was inadequate
» It did not understand well the nature of the risks, including for BOP
» Fiscal surveillance: SGP focus on deficit rather than debt
» No EZ financial surveillance, inadequate national surveillance
Prior to the crisis, adjustment mechanisms were inadequate
» The REER channel did not work well: divergences in competitiveness were not
corrected automatically or otherwise
When the crisis occurred, the system lacked adequate tools to
deal with it
11. 11
The system allowed huge imbalances
Very large current deficits
Huge build up of private and public debts, and external debts
Loss of competitiveness
The music stopped when the financial crisis started
16. 16
Risk of sudden stop not understood before Lehmann
100
GREECE
IRELAND
80
ITALY
SPAIN
PORTUGAL
60
BELGIUM AUSTRIA
UNITED KINGDOM
40
DENMARK NETHERLANDS
FRANCE NETHERLANDS
SWEDEN
SPAIN
FINLAND
UNITED KINGDOM FINLAND GERMANY
20
GREECE ITALY
SPAIN
PORTUGAL
GREECE IRELAND SWEDEN
IRELAND FRANCE BELGIUM
DENMARK
UNITED ITALY
KINGDOM AUSTRIA NETHERLANDS
DENMARK GERMANY
PORTUGAL
FINLAND SWEDEN
FRANCE AUSTRIA GERMANY
BELGIUM
0
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
Current Account over GDP
31/12/2006 29/12/2007 20/10/2008
19. 19
Sovereign debt crises possible (likely?) in € area
€ area governments issue debt in a foreign currency, just like in
emerging countries!
What EA mechanism could have prevented such crisis?
» Debt mutualization: replace national treasury by € area treasury
» If no debt mutualization: strict rules to contain sovereign debts,
including rules on private debts
What EA mechanism could have lessened the effects the crisis?
» If government solvent
ECB to act as LOLR
ESM lending
» If government not solvent
European Sovereign Debt Resolution Mechanism
Debt redemption mechanism
20. 20
The response: A Swedish strategy was not feasible
Comprehensive and rapid banking resolution: Impossible, no FDIC.
Supportive macroeconomic policies
Fiscal expansion: Impossible because debt levels were already high and
danger of sovereign debt crisis => fiscal austerity, but self-defeating
Monetary expansion, including currency depreciation: Impossible
Structural reforms: difficult w/t supportive macro policies
Fiscal reform
Product market liberalization
Labor market and social reforms
=> Limits of a “currency without a state” in a crisis situation
21. 21
What then was the € area strategy?
Central role of the ECB, but limitations due to absence of a euro
sovereign (TPS again: “the loneliness of the ECB”)
Banking: each country responsible for his own situation. Future:
creation of a banking union, but w/t FDIC?
Supportive macroeconomic policies: Not much
Fiscal expansion: austerity in deficit countries albeit with EU-IMF
assistance; but no expansion in surplus countries
Monetary expansion: slow internal devaluation, but external value of
the euro remains high
Structural reforms: difficult w/t supportive macro policies
Fiscal reform
Product market liberalization
Labor market and social reforms
=> No real strategy, besides “putting one’s house in order” with some assistance
23. 23
Deficit countries have two problems
Obsolete socio-economic model already prior to joining the
euro due to
» Increased global competition from emerging countries
» Increased competition within Europe from the NMS.
Model managed to survive thanks to euro adoption of the euro
which permitted large net external debt positions, whereas the
euro should have been an impetus for reform.
Now these countries have two problems
» A competitiveness problem, not only intra-€A but also towards the NMS
» An external debt problem
24. 24
Twin problems of competitiveness and debt
Correcting the competitiveness problem requires lower prices
in the periphery than in the core
But too low prices risk increasing the debt burden in the
periphery by lowering nominal GDP
In addition austerity measures aimed at lowering public debt
also lower nominal GDP
Hence correcting competitiveness and public debt risk creating
self-defeating debt deflation in the peripheral countries
25. 25
Austerity alone is not working
Are fiscal contractions expansionary? No, unless accompanied by
other policies
Do fiscal contractions reduce deficits? Yes, but by less than 1
Note: a positive
sign indicates a
reduction in the
deficit.
Source: Martin Wolf, FT 1/5/12
27. 27
The incompatible trio: Reforms
1. Reduction of economic differences between MS in some areas:
reforms of national policies (e.g. labor markets) and EU policies
(e.g. Structural Funds)
2. Creation of common policies and institutions in some areas: a
banking and (?) fiscal union
28. 28
Two big question marks
It’s relatively easy to design the LT solution, involving economic
convergence and the build up of a banking and fiscal union based
on a strong political commitment (“A genuine EMU”)
But two big questions about how to get from here to there
» Are the existing economic, social and political differences between EZ MS
really compatible with a commitment in favor of banking and fiscal union?
» Is there sufficient political commitment not just for the LT vision but also
about how to deal with the twin legacy problems of
Competitiveness and asymmetric adjustment
(External) debt
leading to potentially unsustainable debt and social situations in the periphery?