Pine Economic Calendar: High speed monetary policyBanco Pine
Industrial production in Brazil is estimated to have risen 0.5% in July, the second consecutive monthly rise. Annual industrial production is expected to fall 2.5% in July, an improvement from the 3.5% decline in June. Inflation as measured by the IPCA index is projected to rise 0.38% in August, slightly below the 0.43% rise in July. The central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 7.5% at its next meeting, having reduced it by 50 basis points at its prior meeting.
The presentation explains how the food and global financial crises impacted Pakistan's socio-economy. A detailed impact assessment is followed by the policy response taken in the various spheres of the economy.
1) Food prices in Ethiopia have been rising, driven by increases in global food prices as well as domestic factors. Cereals make up a large portion of household expenditures and the Ethiopian economy.
2) The prices of major cereals like teff, wheat, maize, and sorghum in Addis Ababa have generally been increasing in nominal terms since the late 2000s. Food inflation has outpaced general inflation.
3) The causes of rising food prices in Ethiopia include high domestic demand, expansionary monetary policy, shifts from food aid to cash transfers, infrastructure investments, overall inflation, and increasing global commodity and oil prices. Tight links exist between Ethiopian and international cereal markets
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China's food security is increasingly linked to global food security. Challenges like population growth, climate change, and resource constraints influence both. Policies, investments, and technologies are needed to enhance food security through improving productivity, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and providing market incentives.
Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI/EDRI), Tenth International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, July 19-21, 2012. EEA Conference Hall
The document discusses the economic recovery of Southern Nevada from the recession. It provides data on housing prices, job growth, unemployment rates, consumer confidence and other economic indicators from 2001 to 2011. While some indicators like housing prices and unemployment have improved from their lowest points, the recovery has been slow and the region still faces challenges in achieving stronger and sustained job and income growth.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
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Pine Economic Calendar: High speed monetary policyBanco Pine
Industrial production in Brazil is estimated to have risen 0.5% in July, the second consecutive monthly rise. Annual industrial production is expected to fall 2.5% in July, an improvement from the 3.5% decline in June. Inflation as measured by the IPCA index is projected to rise 0.38% in August, slightly below the 0.43% rise in July. The central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate at 7.5% at its next meeting, having reduced it by 50 basis points at its prior meeting.
The presentation explains how the food and global financial crises impacted Pakistan's socio-economy. A detailed impact assessment is followed by the policy response taken in the various spheres of the economy.
1) Food prices in Ethiopia have been rising, driven by increases in global food prices as well as domestic factors. Cereals make up a large portion of household expenditures and the Ethiopian economy.
2) The prices of major cereals like teff, wheat, maize, and sorghum in Addis Ababa have generally been increasing in nominal terms since the late 2000s. Food inflation has outpaced general inflation.
3) The causes of rising food prices in Ethiopia include high domestic demand, expansionary monetary policy, shifts from food aid to cash transfers, infrastructure investments, overall inflation, and increasing global commodity and oil prices. Tight links exist between Ethiopian and international cereal markets
Rising role of china in global food security Shenggen Fan
China's food security is increasingly linked to global food security. Challenges like population growth, climate change, and resource constraints influence both. Policies, investments, and technologies are needed to enhance food security through improving productivity, promoting climate-smart agriculture, and providing market incentives.
Ethiopian Development Research Institute and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI/EDRI), Tenth International Conference on Ethiopian Economy, July 19-21, 2012. EEA Conference Hall
The document discusses the economic recovery of Southern Nevada from the recession. It provides data on housing prices, job growth, unemployment rates, consumer confidence and other economic indicators from 2001 to 2011. While some indicators like housing prices and unemployment have improved from their lowest points, the recovery has been slow and the region still faces challenges in achieving stronger and sustained job and income growth.
Expected us gdp growth rate presentationVictoria Rock
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country over a period of time. The document discusses GDP reporting, components, and measurement in the US. It provides data on US GDP from 1995-2010, showing steady growth except for declines in 1998 and 2008-2009. Sectors like consumption, government spending, investment, and net exports influence GDP. The income and expenditure approaches are used to calculate GDP.
The School of Business and Economics at Lynchburg College, in conjunction with the Lynchburg Regional Chamber of Commerce, hosted the spring Economic Outlook Conference on February 1, 2012. Roy Webb, Senior Economist and Research Advisor with the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, spoke to an audience of approximately 100 people about national economic conditions.
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis for the City of Seattle. It summarizes key factors that led to the current recession, including asset bubbles, cheap credit, loose lending standards, and the bursting of the housing bubble. It then analyzes recent economic indicators and forecasts a major regional recession for the Puget Sound area, with peak job losses of over 30,000. Revenue forecasts predict declines for sales tax, B&O tax, and natural gas utility tax due to weakness in construction, retail, and energy prices.
Eletropaulo reported a loss of R$ 324.1 million in 3Q05 compared to a net income of R$ 136.8 million in 2Q05. Key factors included a tariff adjustment of 2.12% effective July 4, 2005, the issuance of R$ 800 million in debentures in September, and a significant increase in operating expenses including a R$ 346.4 million provision for doubtful debts. While revenues declined, expenses rose due to higher personnel costs, increased tariff quotas, and the amortization of regulatory assets, leading to a large quarterly loss despite an adjusted EBITDA of R$ 400.3 million.
Public investments in agriculture in Mozambique have achieved impressive growth rates in recent years, however this growth may not be sustainable. While agricultural GDP and public spending on agriculture have grown at average annual rates of 8.4% and 12.2% respectively between 2000-2011, there are indications that further technical change is needed to maintain this level of growth. Models suggest that public investment in agriculture would need to increase substantially, to around 18-28% annually, in order to spur sufficient technical change through investments in areas like agricultural R&D, infrastructure, and institutional development. Understanding the determinants of public investment decisions, such as the country's budgeting process and the incentives of various actors, will be important to guide investments toward
The document provides a summary of a report on climate change and ecosystem assessment in the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP) region of Pakistan. It outlines the populations and livelihoods in the region, the need for the study due to climate change impacts, key areas of study including vulnerabilities, the methodology used including data collection and sources, existing literature on the region, and gaps in current research. It also provides examples of climatic trends in Skardu and Gilgit based on temperature and precipitation data.
U.S. Airlines: Their Nascent Recovery and the Benefits to the NationAdina Young
The US airline industry is climbing out of huge financial losses from 2001-2011 totalling $62.3 billion and has achieved modest profitability in recent years. However, airlines remain less profitable than other segments of the travel industry value chain. While operational performance is strong with high on-time arrival rates and low passenger complaint rates, the financial condition of most US airlines remains precarious, with only one currently holding investment-grade credit ratings. New regulations proposed for 2012 threaten to undermine the industry's nascent recovery.
The document provides an overview of housing market trends in Southwest California from 2009-2010. It includes charts showing:
1) Monthly unit sales across several cities that decreased from early 2009 to early 2010.
2) Median home prices across the same cities that generally decreased or leveled off from early 2009 to early 2010.
3) May 2010 data on housing demand, supply, and sales trends for several cities in the region.
The document contains three charts showing home price index values for Atlanta from 1991 to 2012:
1) The first chart shows the overall Atlanta index, as well as seasonally adjusted values, compared to the national index. All indices generally increased from 1991 to 2006 before declining.
2) The second chart focuses on the Atlanta index, again showing an increase until 2006 followed by a decline.
3) The third chart breaks the Atlanta index into tiers based on home value, showing that higher-valued homes saw greater price appreciation until 2006, before all tiers declined.
This document discusses reversing declining middle class jobs and incomes in the United States. It provides 12 figures analyzing job and income trends since the 1950s which show that (1) job growth was much weaker in the 2000s than previous decades, (2) median earnings have stagnated since 1981, and (3) the share of middle class incomes has declined since 1980. The figures also show that economic growth and job growth resumed in 2009 and have continued since.
BRAR-The Economy and Housing Market - Nov 3kfisher181
The document discusses recent economic performance and outlooks for the U.S. economy, including trends in GDP, employment, manufacturing and housing from 2007-2014. It analyzes indicators such as initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, consumer prices and leading economic indices. Overall, the data shows the economy recovering from the recent recession but growth remaining modest with unemployment still elevated.
The document provides an overview of key economic indicators and performance of the Indian market from 2008 to 2012. It summarizes annual GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, current account deficit, FII activity, and performance of the Sensex index relative to global peers. Selected companies are also analyzed over the 5-year period based on factors like revenue and profit growth, valuations, debt levels, and concerns.
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This document summarizes a study on cereal price dynamics in Ethiopia. It finds that while Ethiopia has experienced economic growth, food prices have remained high compared to other countries. Food prices are influenced by global trends as well as domestic factors like increasing demand, monetary policy, and agricultural market issues. The government has responded with subsidies, export bans, and price caps, but volatility remains an issue. Long-term solutions proposed include boosting agricultural productivity and private investment, and expanding social safety nets.
Grain Markets and Large Social Transfers:An Analysis of Productive Safety Net...guest9970726
This document analyzes Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), which provides social transfers to poor households. The PSNP uses both cash transfers and in-kind food transfers. It analyzes whether the PSNP is linked to unusual price trends in grain markets and examines the price effects of cash versus food transfers under different market integration scenarios. Key findings include that prices in PSNP regions are generally above non-PSNP regions, and cash transfers could integrate separated markets and further increase price differences, while food transfers could lower prices and reduce differences. The PSNP may have influenced national price trends through its scale of coverage and transfers.
Does microfinance reduce rural poverty? Evidence based on long term household...guest9970726
1) The study evaluates the long-term impact of microfinance loans on rural poverty in Ethiopia using a panel dataset over 1997-2006.
2) Results show microfinance loans modestly increased annual household consumption by $23-48 and likelihood of housing improvements by 0.27, but impact is smaller when controlling for time-varying factors.
3) Higher frequency and longer duration of borrowing is associated with larger impacts on consumption and improvements become significant only after several years of borrowing.
The School of Business and Economics at Lynchburg College, in conjunction with the Lynchburg Regional Chamber of Commerce, hosted the spring Economic Outlook Conference on February 1, 2012. Roy Webb, Senior Economist and Research Advisor with the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, spoke to an audience of approximately 100 people about national economic conditions.
This document provides an economic forecast and analysis for the City of Seattle. It summarizes key factors that led to the current recession, including asset bubbles, cheap credit, loose lending standards, and the bursting of the housing bubble. It then analyzes recent economic indicators and forecasts a major regional recession for the Puget Sound area, with peak job losses of over 30,000. Revenue forecasts predict declines for sales tax, B&O tax, and natural gas utility tax due to weakness in construction, retail, and energy prices.
Eletropaulo reported a loss of R$ 324.1 million in 3Q05 compared to a net income of R$ 136.8 million in 2Q05. Key factors included a tariff adjustment of 2.12% effective July 4, 2005, the issuance of R$ 800 million in debentures in September, and a significant increase in operating expenses including a R$ 346.4 million provision for doubtful debts. While revenues declined, expenses rose due to higher personnel costs, increased tariff quotas, and the amortization of regulatory assets, leading to a large quarterly loss despite an adjusted EBITDA of R$ 400.3 million.
Public investments in agriculture in Mozambique have achieved impressive growth rates in recent years, however this growth may not be sustainable. While agricultural GDP and public spending on agriculture have grown at average annual rates of 8.4% and 12.2% respectively between 2000-2011, there are indications that further technical change is needed to maintain this level of growth. Models suggest that public investment in agriculture would need to increase substantially, to around 18-28% annually, in order to spur sufficient technical change through investments in areas like agricultural R&D, infrastructure, and institutional development. Understanding the determinants of public investment decisions, such as the country's budgeting process and the incentives of various actors, will be important to guide investments toward
The document provides a summary of a report on climate change and ecosystem assessment in the Central Karakoram National Park (CKNP) region of Pakistan. It outlines the populations and livelihoods in the region, the need for the study due to climate change impacts, key areas of study including vulnerabilities, the methodology used including data collection and sources, existing literature on the region, and gaps in current research. It also provides examples of climatic trends in Skardu and Gilgit based on temperature and precipitation data.
U.S. Airlines: Their Nascent Recovery and the Benefits to the NationAdina Young
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The document provides an overview of housing market trends in Southwest California from 2009-2010. It includes charts showing:
1) Monthly unit sales across several cities that decreased from early 2009 to early 2010.
2) Median home prices across the same cities that generally decreased or leveled off from early 2009 to early 2010.
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The document contains three charts showing home price index values for Atlanta from 1991 to 2012:
1) The first chart shows the overall Atlanta index, as well as seasonally adjusted values, compared to the national index. All indices generally increased from 1991 to 2006 before declining.
2) The second chart focuses on the Atlanta index, again showing an increase until 2006 followed by a decline.
3) The third chart breaks the Atlanta index into tiers based on home value, showing that higher-valued homes saw greater price appreciation until 2006, before all tiers declined.
This document discusses reversing declining middle class jobs and incomes in the United States. It provides 12 figures analyzing job and income trends since the 1950s which show that (1) job growth was much weaker in the 2000s than previous decades, (2) median earnings have stagnated since 1981, and (3) the share of middle class incomes has declined since 1980. The figures also show that economic growth and job growth resumed in 2009 and have continued since.
BRAR-The Economy and Housing Market - Nov 3kfisher181
The document discusses recent economic performance and outlooks for the U.S. economy, including trends in GDP, employment, manufacturing and housing from 2007-2014. It analyzes indicators such as initial jobless claims, unemployment rates, consumer prices and leading economic indices. Overall, the data shows the economy recovering from the recent recession but growth remaining modest with unemployment still elevated.
The document provides an overview of key economic indicators and performance of the Indian market from 2008 to 2012. It summarizes annual GDP growth, inflation, fiscal deficit, current account deficit, FII activity, and performance of the Sensex index relative to global peers. Selected companies are also analyzed over the 5-year period based on factors like revenue and profit growth, valuations, debt levels, and concerns.
CAR Chief Economist Leslie Appleton Young provides an economic update to the Murrieta Temecula Group and the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors
This document summarizes a study on cereal price dynamics in Ethiopia. It finds that while Ethiopia has experienced economic growth, food prices have remained high compared to other countries. Food prices are influenced by global trends as well as domestic factors like increasing demand, monetary policy, and agricultural market issues. The government has responded with subsidies, export bans, and price caps, but volatility remains an issue. Long-term solutions proposed include boosting agricultural productivity and private investment, and expanding social safety nets.
Grain Markets and Large Social Transfers:An Analysis of Productive Safety Net...guest9970726
This document analyzes Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), which provides social transfers to poor households. The PSNP uses both cash transfers and in-kind food transfers. It analyzes whether the PSNP is linked to unusual price trends in grain markets and examines the price effects of cash versus food transfers under different market integration scenarios. Key findings include that prices in PSNP regions are generally above non-PSNP regions, and cash transfers could integrate separated markets and further increase price differences, while food transfers could lower prices and reduce differences. The PSNP may have influenced national price trends through its scale of coverage and transfers.
Does microfinance reduce rural poverty? Evidence based on long term household...guest9970726
1) The study evaluates the long-term impact of microfinance loans on rural poverty in Ethiopia using a panel dataset over 1997-2006.
2) Results show microfinance loans modestly increased annual household consumption by $23-48 and likelihood of housing improvements by 0.27, but impact is smaller when controlling for time-varying factors.
3) Higher frequency and longer duration of borrowing is associated with larger impacts on consumption and improvements become significant only after several years of borrowing.
Seasonality continues to significantly impact rural household diets in Ethiopia. Diet diversity increases at the end of the lean season when food availability is lowest. Households consume on average 2,444 calories per day but rely heavily on cereals during lean periods. Expanding irrigation and improving market integration could help reduce households' dependence on local food production and lessen the impacts of seasonality on nutrition and health.
This document discusses the potential for biofortification in Ethiopia. It presents results from a Biofortification Priority Index (BPI) analysis which ranks countries and crops for investment in biofortified nutritious crops. The BPI analysis indicates that Ethiopia is a priority country for biofortifying maize with vitamin A, wheat with zinc, pearl millet with iron, and sweet potato with vitamin A. A subnational analysis of Ethiopia further identifies zones in Amhara, Oromia, Tigray and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples' Region as priorities for vitamin A maize and zinc wheat.
Agriculture for Sustainable Economic Development: A Global R&D Initiative to ...Joachim von Braun
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2. Rising incomes, biofuel production, and lack of technology have contributed to an imbalance in the world food equation and rising food prices.
3. Unsustainable agricultural practices pose risks to water resources, soils, biodiversity, and climate change. Hunger and poverty remain problems.
A spatial assessment of livestock production and market accessessp2
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The document analyzes determinants of cattle prices in Ethiopia using a hedonic price formation model. Key findings include: 1) Prices are heavily influenced by cattle characteristics like body mass, age, gender, and breed; 2) Prices vary by region, season, and religious holidays; 3) Non-food inflation explains lowland price increases but not highland increases, where international beef prices explain 10% of the rise. However, much of the overall price increase remains unexplained.
John Michael Staatz - Agricultural price volatility: causes, impacts & policy...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
This document summarizes a presentation on agricultural price volatility. It discusses the causes of volatility, including supply and demand shocks as well as government trade policies. On the supply side, weather events, low stock levels, and trade restrictions can exacerbate volatility. Rising incomes have made demand more inelastic. The presentation also outlines actions that could help reduce volatility, such as reducing trade barriers and improving market information.
The document discusses the challenges facing the livestock sector in the coming decades due to population growth, increasing demand for meat and dairy, and constraints on land and water availability. It argues that efficiency gains are key to ensuring sustainable growth in the sector. Intensifying production through improved technologies and management can boost output while reducing environmental impacts. There are opportunities to close efficiency gaps, enhance grassland management, and reduce waste discharge to build a more sustainable livestock sector. Collaboration across actors will be important to optimize these opportunities.
This document provides an overview and forecast of the 2012 California housing market from the Chief Economist at Leslie Appleton-Young. It summarizes that the US and California economies faced challenges in 2011 including oil price spikes, sovereign debt crisis, and political changes that contributed to stock market volatility and consumer spending weakness. Unemployment remains high in California and the US. Job growth was flat in August and California job growth is faltering, with the largest job losses in construction and financial activities. The forecast anticipates continued challenges for the 2012 California housing market.
1) The document discusses global food security and agricultural productivity trends from 1950-2050.
2) It notes that from 1950-2000, called the "Age of Abundance", global food supply grew faster than demand, keeping prices low due to steady productivity gains.
3) Looking ahead to 2050, it estimates global food demand will need to increase 1.3% annually, and questions whether productivity can continue growing fast enough to meet this demand sustainably.
Agriculture and the Rural-Urban Transformation in Ethiopia:Summary Findings a...essp2
This document summarizes findings from a conference on agriculture and rural-urban transformation in Ethiopia. It includes trends showing increasing cereal production and real prices from 2000-2009. The agenda covers sessions on agricultural productivity, rural service delivery, household food security, and the macroeconomic impacts of agriculture. Presentations analyze topics like fertilizer use, extension services, food consumption patterns, non-farm economic growth, and the effects of infrastructure like electricity. Maps show improving rural access to cities over time as travel times fall. Overall, the document discusses economic development in Ethiopia through analyses of agricultural and rural issues.
Rural labour markets in transforming agricultural economies the case of ethiopiaessp2
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2) Rural wages have increased by 70% between 2004-2018, driven by agricultural growth. Higher wages provide incentives for mechanization and use of herbicides in agriculture.
3) Wage increases are linked to poverty reduction, as wages and poverty are negatively correlated. Policy implications include supporting skills development and adoption of technologies to maintain Ethiopia's low-wage advantage as wages rise.
Economic Implications of Foreign Exchange Rationing in Ethiopiaessp2
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2) Higher domestic investment and spending increased domestic prices more than world prices, further appreciating the real exchange rate.
3) Agricultural incomes, especially for export crops, did not rise as much as urban incomes due to effects on trade competitiveness.
Aquaculture and environment: Sustainability issues_Dr Padmakumar (The Kerala ...India Water Portal
This presentation by Dr Padmakumar, Professor and Associate Director of Research, KAU, RARS, Kumarakom made at the Kerala Environment Congress organised by the Centre for Environment and Development explains the possibilities of different fish farming practices relevant to Kerala
The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries:...ILRI
Presented by Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, and Delia Grace at the Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference, Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012
The document discusses different methods of calculating inflation including the wholesale price index, consumer price index, and GDP deflator. It provides details on the composition and calculation of the consumer price index and shows data on inflation rates in India from 1980-2011 as measured by CPI and WPI. Line charts compare movements in CPI, WPI, and GDP deflator over time. Tables list the components of the consumer price index basket and provide inflation data for various categories from January to September.
Implications of Agricultural Productivity Growth for Structural Change and ...essp2
Ethiopia has experienced rapid economic growth over the past decade, with growth occurring across sectors. While agriculture's share of GDP has fallen, it remains a major driver of growth, primarily through improvements in crop yields. Measuring employment based on time spent working rather than primary occupation suggests agriculture's share of rural employment is lower than surveys indicate, at around three-quarters rather than over four-fifths. Positive structural change, with workers moving to higher productivity sectors, accounted for around a quarter of the increase in average labor productivity between 2004-05 and 2012-13. However, at current rates of structural change, agriculture is projected to employ a majority of workers until near the end of the century.
The Performance of the Livestock Sector: investigating the supply side challe...essp2
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Use of Micro and Macro Frameworks in Estimating
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A spatial assessment of livestock population and market access essp2
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Food Prices, Consumption and Nutrition in Ethiopia:Implications of Recent Price Shocks
1. Food Prices, Consumption and
Nutrition in Ethiopia:
Implications of Recent Price Shocks
Paul Dorosh
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
(Ethiopia Strategy Support Program, ESSP-2)
Institute of Medicine Workshop on
Mitigating the Nutritional Impacts of the Global Food Crisis
July 14-26, 2009
2. Outline of Presentation
• Background: Geography, Economy, Nutrition
• Determinants of Food Prices in Ethiopia
– Nominal and real price movements
– Changing determinants of wheat prices over time
• Implications for household consumption and
nutrition
– Household food consumption patterns
• Safety nets
• Concluding observations
4. Annual rainfall varies across space
Rainfall is highest and least variable in the western part of the country
and the western slopes of mountains
5. Population is concentrated along
the primary road network
But only 16 percent of the population resides in urban areas
(cities of 5,000 or more people)
6. Much of Ethiopia is remote
(>10 hours travel time to a city of 50k or more people)
45% of the population lives >5 hours from a city of 50k+
Source: Schmidt (2009).
7. Ethiopia: Cereal Production and Real Prices
16 200
14
180
Real Price Index (2000/01 = 100)
12
Production (mn tons)
160
10
8 140
6
120
4
100
2
- 80
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2007/08
2000/01
2005/06
2006/07
Cereals (mehrer) Total Cereals Real Price Index
Source: Dorosh and Ahmed (2009); Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA)
and Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) data.
8. Measures of Malnutrition
for Ethiopia and Kenya
Prevalence of
Proportion of Underweight in
undernourished in the children under 5 years Under 5 Mortality
population (%) 1/ (%) 2/ rate (%) GHI 2009
Ethiopia 2003-2007 2005 2007
46.0 34.6 11.9 30.8
Kenya 2003-2007 2003 2007
32.0 16.5 12.1 20.2
Notes:
1/ Proportion of the population with calorie deficiency. Average over a three year
period from FAO.
2/ Figures shown are for the latest years available for the period 2002-2007. Based on
the WHO Child Growth Standards revised in 2006.
GHI denotes Global Hunger Index, an unweighted average of the other three
measures of malnutrition shown in the table.
9. Ethiopia: Poverty Trends
1995/96 to 2004/05
1995/96 1999/2000 2004/05
Po P1 P2 Po P1 P2 Po P1 P2
Rural 47.5 13.4 5.3 45.4 12.2 4.6 39.3 8.5 2.7
Urban 33.2 9.9 4.1 36.9 10.1 3.9 35.1 7.7 2.6
National 45.5 12.9 5.1 44.2 11.9 4.5 38.7 8.3 2.7
Notes: P0 denotes % of population below the poverty line; P1
measures the average depth of poverty; P2 is a measure of the
severity of poverty.
Source: Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency, Household Income,
Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HICES) data.
14. Determinants of Wheat Prices
Four Market Regimes
• January 2000-June 2005: Domestic wheat prices were generally between
import and export parity
– Given levels of official imports (including food aid), there was little incentive
for private sector imports of ordinary wheat
– Domestic prices were determined by domestic supply (including official
imports) and demand
• July 2005-March 2007: Domestic wheat prices were generally at import
parity levels
– Private sector imports adjusted to equate total supply and domestic demand
at the import parity price
• April 2007- May 2008: Domestic wheat prices were again below import
parity
– Given sharp increases in world prices, private sector imports were not
profitable
• June 2008 – May 2009: Domestic wheat prices were above import parity
– Restrictions on foreign exchange for imports prevented private imports from
taking advantage of profitable import opportunities
17. Summary: Wheat Markets
• Wheat price formation regimes have changed several
times between 2000 and 2009:
– For most of this period, domestic prices have NOT been
determined by international border prices
• Given foreign exchange rationing starting in March
2008, private sector wheat importers have had
restricted access to foreign exchange
– Domestic wheat prices have been above wheat import
parity prices since May 2008
• Government sales of its wheat imports from July to
October 2008 successfully reduced domestic market
prices
– Sizeable rents accrued to those with access to wheat
imports at official prices
19. Ethiopia: Calorie Consumption
2004/05
Urban
Teff
Wheat
Other Cereals
Enset/ Root Crops
Pulses/ Oilseeds
Animal Products
Other
Source: Calculated from Ethiopia Central Statistics Agency (CSA) Household Income, Consumption
and Expenditure Survey (HICES) 2004/05 data; Seyoum et al. (2009).
20. Livelihoods Analysis
• Livelihoods Integration Unit (LIU)
– Part of Government of Ethiopia’s early warning system
within the Ministry of Agricultural and Rural Development
– Baseline data on 173 livelihood zones using key informant
questionnaires
– Includes calculations of impacts of shocks on household
access to food based on changes in prices or losses of
production
– Able to highlight sub-regional food security issues that may
not be captured in regional analyses (e.g. effects of
production losses of non-cereal food crops such as enset
and sweet potatoes)
See http://www.feg-consulting.com/spotlight/feg_liu_pp8opt.pdf
21. Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)
• PSNP introduced 2005
– Initially covered 264 chronically food insecure woredas in four
regions (out of approximately 500 woredas in Ethiopia)
– Pastoralist areas initially excluded
– Two sub-programs
• Public works (PW) schemes: pays workers in cash or in-kind for their
labor on labor-intensive projects designed to build community assets
• Direct support (DS): provided to labor-scarce households including
those whose primary income earners are elderly or disabled
• Other Food Security Programme (OFSP)
– Provides at least one of several productivity-enhancing
transfers or services, such as access to credit and agricultural
extension services
– Designed to encourage households to increase income
generated from agricultural activities and to build up assets.
– Covered one-third of PSNP recipients in 2006 baseline survey
22. Impact of the PSNP
• An evaluation of the PSNP in 2006 showed impacts varied
by household participation
• Households that received at least half of the amount of
transfers it should have received according to the design of
the program:
– Had a reduced likelihood of having a very low caloric intake
– Increased their mean calorie availability by 183
kcals/person/day
• Households that also received access to any component of
the OFSP are more likely to
– Be food secure (increase mean calorie availability by 230
kcals/person/day from 2347 to 2577)
– Borrow for productive purposes
– Use improved agricultural technologies
– Operate nonfarm own business activities
Source: Gilligan, Hoddinott and Tafesse (2008).
23. Concluding Observations
• Over the last two decades, Ethiopia has made impressive
strides in enhancing food security by
– Increasing domestic production
– Investing in infrastructure to improve markets and
– launching the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP)
• Recent price shocks in Ethiopia are not, in general, due
to increases in food prices in international markets
• Many households remain vulnerable to food production
shocks due to droughts or disease that may be specific to
small regions within the country
• Food security could be further enhanced through
– Continued high growth in agricultural production and
incomes of poor households
– Expansion of the Other Food Security Program (OFSP) and
– Targeted nutrition efforts