The U.S. and the State of the Transatlantic Security Relationship: Underlying Trends

Burke Chair
In Strategy
June 14, 2018
Please send comments to
acordesman@gmail.com
Anthony H. Cordesman
acordesman@gmail.com
CSIS – Center for Strategic
and International Studies
1616 Rhode Island Avenue
NW
Washington, DC 20036
Anthony H. Cordesman
Phone: 1.202.361.8085
Email: acordesman@gmail.com
The U.S. and the State of the
Transatlantic Security
Relationship: Underlying Trends

Challenges: Real and Imagined
2

“Transactional Aggression” versus “Euro-Populism”?
Who Speaks for the U.S and/or “Europe”
3
• Anger, Fear, ignorance, demographics, change
• (NATO) burdensharing, bullying, and bluster
• Environment, Paris Agreement within the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
• Brexit, EC vs. nationalism, economic growth
• Farming, automation, post-industrial revolution
• Trade policy (wars?)
• Jerusalem, Israel, Palestinians
• Alliances versus America First
• Human rights versus self-interest
• Refugees, immigration, race, religion, jobs

Key Transatlantic Security Issues
4
• Russia, Ukraine, Sanction, Eastern Europe, Baltic
• Transatlantic vs. Euro-defense
• NATO modernization, missions vs.burdensharing
• Power projection
• Counterterrorism, Afghanistan ISIS, internal
security, MENA regional issues: Libya, Iraq,
Syria, Gulf,
• Iran, JCPOA, and sanctions
• Nuclear/WMD modernization, proliferation,
disarmament

Views of (and in) U.S.
“Leadership”
5

Polling Trends: Views of U.S. Leadership : End 2016-End 2017
(Gallup 2017)
6Gallup, 1.18.18: Gallup http://news.gallup.com/poll/225761/world-approval-leadership-drops-new-low.aspx
Germany replaced the U.S. as the top-rated global power in the world. U.S. now on nearly
even footing with China (31%) and barely more popular than Russia (27%) -- two countries
that Trump sees as rivals seeking to "challenge American influence, values and wealth.”.
Portugal, Belgium, Norway and Canada led the declines worldwide, with approval ratings of
U.S. leadership dropping 40 points or more in each country. While majorities in each of these
countries approved of U.S. leadership in 2016, majorities disapproved in 2017.
Top Disapprovals

Polling Trends: Positive or Negative Views of the U.S.
(Pew Early 2016 to Early 2017)
7
Approval dropped in 30 of 37 countries surveyed. The exceptions? Israel
(where there was no change), Jordan, Hungary, Nigeria, Greece and Vietnam
— all of which saw increases in favorability of 6 points or fewer.
http://www.pewglobal.org/database/indicator/6/

Polling Trends: Views of U.S. Leadership: (Gallup 2017)
8Gallup, 1.18.18: Gallup http://news.gallup.com/poll/225761/world-approval-leadership-drops-new-low.aspx

American Perceptions of Foreign Views of U.S.
(Gallup 2/2018)
9Gallup, 2.20.18: http://news.gallup.com/poll/227939/satisfaction-world-standing-hits-year-high.aspx
Forty-five percent of Americans are satisfied with the position of the United States in the world, a 13-year
high and a 13-percentage-point increase from early 2017, just after President Trump took office. At the same
time,, Gallup sees no change in Americans' opinions of how other world leaders view Trump. Only 29% say he
is respected, the same as a year ago.

Regional Trends in Terrorism
(Numbers of Incidents out of total of 89,408)
11
START Data Base,
http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?chart=regions&casualties_type=b&casualties_max=&start_yearonly=2000&end_yearonly=201
6&dtp2=all&region=7,9,10,1,5,11,8
MENA
South Asia
Sub Saharan
Africa
All Others

The Complex National Patterns in Terrorism: 2000-2016
(Numbers of Incidents in Selected NATO Countries)
12
START Data Base,
https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?chart=country&casualties_type=b&casualties_max=&start_yearonly=
2001&end_yearonly=2016&dtp2=all&country=21,32,38,54,55,69,75,78,90,98,142,151,161,162,166,179,180,185,603,217

“Amerca First” and “Strategic
Partners”
13

Key Elements of New US National Security Strategy:”
Global Rebalancing”
14OSD Comptroller, US Department of Defense, FY2019 Budget Request, February 2018. http://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-
Materials/Budget2019/.

Key Elements of New US National Defense Strategy

The Role of Alliances in the New Strategy

Trump on Article 5 and Burden Sharing in Warsaw:
July 6, 2017
17
"To those who would criticize our tough stance, I
would point out that the United States has
demonstrated — not merely with its words but
with its actions — that we stand firmly behind
Article 5, the mutual defense commitment…
"Words are easy, but actions are what matters. And
for its own protection, Europe — and you know
this, everybody knows this, everybody has to know
this — Europe must do more."
.
Jacob Pramuk, Trump endorses NATO's mutual defense pact in Poland, after failing to do so on first Europe trip, CNBC,
7:49 AM ET Thu, 6 July 2017 Updated 9:05 AM ET Thu, 6 July 2017, https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/06/trump-us-stands-firmly-behind-nato-
article-5.html

The U.S.: Burden versus Military
Capability
18

The U.S. Dominates Military Spending in 2017
(Before major U.S. increase in FY2019)
19IISS, Military Balance, 2018, p. 19.

U.S. vs. NATO European and Canadian Military Spending
20
US as % of total
28.9% 28.3% 28.9% 29.9% 30.8% 31.8 32.1% 32.7%
NATO, Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries, Press release PR/CP (2018)16, 15.3.18,
https://www.nato.int/cps/ic/natohq/news_152830.htm.

Comparative NATO Defense Efforts in 2017
21
Total defense expenditure as a Percent of
GDP in 2010 prices and exchange rates

Comparative NATO Equipment Efforts in 2017
22
Equipment expenditure as a Percent of
Defense Expenditure in 2010 prices and
exchange rates

Comparative NATO Efforts in 2017
23

U.S. Action vs. Political Statements:
Major Rises in
Transatlantic Mission Capability
24

DoD Alone is Well Over 2% of GDP NATO Goal, But
Poses a Steadily Lower “Burden”
(DoD is Only 86% of Total. Real FY2019 Percent is 3.6%)

Major U.S. Increase in FY2019 Spending
26
U.S. $74 billion increase in DoD FY2019 budget higher than
NATO Estimate of any Total European 2017 Defense Budget:
UK = $55.2 billion; France = $45.9 billion, Germany = $45.5
billion, Italy = $23.4 Billion
NATO, Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries, Press release PR/CP (2018)16, 15.3.18, https://www.nato.int/cps/ic/natohq/news_152830.htm.
OSD Comptroller, US Department of Defense, FY2019 Budget Request, February 2018.

End of Budget Caps

FY2019: Major Investments to Support
U.S. Forces in Europe
28
OSD Comptroller, US Department of Defense, FY2019 Budget Request, February 2018. http://comptroller.defense.gov/Budget-Materials/Budget2019/.

U.S. European Defense Initiative: FY2017-FY2019:
($3.1 billion higher in FY2019 than FY2017: 91% increase)
29
The 47 activities proposed within the FY 2019 EDI request:
1. Continue to enhance our deterrent and defense posture throughout
the theater by positioning the right capabilities, in key locations, in
order to respond to adversarial threats in a timely manner.
2. Assure our NATO Allies and partners of the United States’
commitment to Article 5 and the territorial integrity of all 28 NATO
nations.
3. Increase the capability and readiness of U.S. Forces, NATO Allies,
and regional partners, allowing for a faster response in the event of
any aggression by a regional adversary against the sovereign territory
of NATO nations.

FY2019: Major Increases in Readiness
30

FY2019: Investments in Power Projection - I
31

FY2019: Investments in Power Projection - II
32

FY2019: Investments in Power Projection - III
33

The U.S. and the State of the Transatlantic Security Relationship: Underlying Trends

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

Similar to The U.S. and the State of the Transatlantic Security Relationship: Underlying Trends

Similar to The U.S. and the State of the Transatlantic Security Relationship: Underlying Trends (20)

More from Istituto Affari Internazionali

More from Istituto Affari Internazionali (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

The U.S. and the State of the Transatlantic Security Relationship: Underlying Trends