Country A wants a depreciation to λ1. With sticky prices, country B faces inflationary excess demand. No „one size fits all‟ monetary policy response. The inability to adjust exchange rates independently in response to asymmetric shocks is a cost of a common currency area.
The document summarizes the economic outlook and challenges facing the coming economic cycle. It notes that recoveries from financial crises tend to be slow, productivity and corporate profits are recovering but bank lending remains constrained, and governments face large budget deficits and rising debt levels. Inflation risks are balanced between commodity price pressures and spare economic capacity. The UK recovery is strengthening but will remain uneven, with exports supported by a weaker pound but consumer spending and business investment facing headwinds. Public finances deteriorated sharply and fiscal austerity is needed. The UK outlook forecasts sluggish growth over 2010-2011 as unemployment peaks later in 2010.
Currency wars triple dips and politics to dominate 2013Richard Ramsey
Currency wars, the risk of further economic downturns, and political challenges will dominate the global economic environment in 2013 according to the Year of the Snake outlook. The eurozone faces ongoing fiscal challenges as several major economies like France, Italy, and Spain continue to contract. Youth unemployment rates have reached crisis levels in many countries. Political leaders face difficulties enacting reforms needed to restore growth. Overall, the recovery remains fragile and further economic and political turbulence seem likely in the coming year.
Deutsche Bank reported first quarter 2009 results that showed signs of stabilization after the turmoil of 2008. Net income was €1.2 billion, an improvement from a loss in the previous quarter, driven by stronger revenues in Sales & Trading and lower credit losses. While capital ratios remained above target levels, total assets declined 5% from the prior quarter to €982 billion due to active balance sheet management. Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank expects funding costs to remain advantageous relative to peers due to its strong credit quality.
- The Economic Sentiment Indicator declined sharply in both the EU and euro area in October, falling 7.4 points in the EU and 7.1 points in the euro area, hitting the lowest levels since 1993.
- Confidence fell considerably across all sectors, with consumer confidence reaching its lowest level in close to fifteen years.
- Employment expectations continued to worsen in industry and services, while consumers expected further unemployment increases.
This document contains Julien Pacheur's career plan spanning from 2003-2030. It outlines his international experience from 2004-2008 focusing on areas like international strategy, marketing, and change management. It also lists the personality tests he has taken to better understand himself. The plan details expectations for different companies and his projected career evolution starting as an intern and advancing to operational roles, department head roles, and ultimately top management by 2030-2045. Contact information is provided at the end.
1-Consistent returns above benchmark (+6% annual outperformance)
2-Very small volatility for an equity fund (-4% annual bellow benchmark)
3-Excellent relative performance throughout the financial crisis (2007-2011)
4- Stable investment philosophy all over 23 years
5-Unique and tested investment process developed by an experienced management team
6-Very high quality (ROE) and liquid concentrated portfolio
7-Defensive strategy: focus on "ensured growth" without leveraged or cyclical sectors
8-Portfolio valuation at historial minimum levels
9-Poor overlapping and low correlation with other fund managers
10-Complementary with other equity styles
http://www.slideshare.net/ignaciopedrosa/edm-strategy-factsheet
MIPIM 2012 - Wrap-Up Keynote address from Mark RobertsMIPIMWorld
Austerity-Stimulus, Risks-Opportunities: Fresh insights and way forward.
The US and Europe have embarked on fundamentally different paths in resolving their debt challenges: Austerity measures in Europe versus stimulus in the US. Policy outcomes will be different, and cannot be overlooked by real estate investors. There are many risks to consider and lots of opportunities ahead. How should investors approach the market today? What strategies are investors pursuing for a brighter tomorrow? Join us for the freshest insights on real estate markets: A combination of our panelists' research, your insights gathered during MIPIM conferences and events, and through our survey responses.
The document summarizes the economic outlook and challenges facing the coming economic cycle. It notes that recoveries from financial crises tend to be slow, productivity and corporate profits are recovering but bank lending remains constrained, and governments face large budget deficits and rising debt levels. Inflation risks are balanced between commodity price pressures and spare economic capacity. The UK recovery is strengthening but will remain uneven, with exports supported by a weaker pound but consumer spending and business investment facing headwinds. Public finances deteriorated sharply and fiscal austerity is needed. The UK outlook forecasts sluggish growth over 2010-2011 as unemployment peaks later in 2010.
Currency wars triple dips and politics to dominate 2013Richard Ramsey
Currency wars, the risk of further economic downturns, and political challenges will dominate the global economic environment in 2013 according to the Year of the Snake outlook. The eurozone faces ongoing fiscal challenges as several major economies like France, Italy, and Spain continue to contract. Youth unemployment rates have reached crisis levels in many countries. Political leaders face difficulties enacting reforms needed to restore growth. Overall, the recovery remains fragile and further economic and political turbulence seem likely in the coming year.
Deutsche Bank reported first quarter 2009 results that showed signs of stabilization after the turmoil of 2008. Net income was €1.2 billion, an improvement from a loss in the previous quarter, driven by stronger revenues in Sales & Trading and lower credit losses. While capital ratios remained above target levels, total assets declined 5% from the prior quarter to €982 billion due to active balance sheet management. Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank expects funding costs to remain advantageous relative to peers due to its strong credit quality.
- The Economic Sentiment Indicator declined sharply in both the EU and euro area in October, falling 7.4 points in the EU and 7.1 points in the euro area, hitting the lowest levels since 1993.
- Confidence fell considerably across all sectors, with consumer confidence reaching its lowest level in close to fifteen years.
- Employment expectations continued to worsen in industry and services, while consumers expected further unemployment increases.
This document contains Julien Pacheur's career plan spanning from 2003-2030. It outlines his international experience from 2004-2008 focusing on areas like international strategy, marketing, and change management. It also lists the personality tests he has taken to better understand himself. The plan details expectations for different companies and his projected career evolution starting as an intern and advancing to operational roles, department head roles, and ultimately top management by 2030-2045. Contact information is provided at the end.
1-Consistent returns above benchmark (+6% annual outperformance)
2-Very small volatility for an equity fund (-4% annual bellow benchmark)
3-Excellent relative performance throughout the financial crisis (2007-2011)
4- Stable investment philosophy all over 23 years
5-Unique and tested investment process developed by an experienced management team
6-Very high quality (ROE) and liquid concentrated portfolio
7-Defensive strategy: focus on "ensured growth" without leveraged or cyclical sectors
8-Portfolio valuation at historial minimum levels
9-Poor overlapping and low correlation with other fund managers
10-Complementary with other equity styles
http://www.slideshare.net/ignaciopedrosa/edm-strategy-factsheet
MIPIM 2012 - Wrap-Up Keynote address from Mark RobertsMIPIMWorld
Austerity-Stimulus, Risks-Opportunities: Fresh insights and way forward.
The US and Europe have embarked on fundamentally different paths in resolving their debt challenges: Austerity measures in Europe versus stimulus in the US. Policy outcomes will be different, and cannot be overlooked by real estate investors. There are many risks to consider and lots of opportunities ahead. How should investors approach the market today? What strategies are investors pursuing for a brighter tomorrow? Join us for the freshest insights on real estate markets: A combination of our panelists' research, your insights gathered during MIPIM conferences and events, and through our survey responses.
For all those interested in "Optimum Currency Areas" - my new infoposter "ECONOMICS" is now available:
- the poster gives an overview of the development of economic theory from its beginnings.
- the poster shows the historical roots of economic ideas and their application to contemporary economic policy debates.
View and order at http://www.cee-portal.at/PrestaShop
Best regards
Martin Kolmhofer
The document discusses key issues related to the Eurozone and Britain's position regarding adopting the Euro. It covers topics such as which countries have adopted the Euro, convergence criteria for joining, the motivations and cases for and against Britain adopting the Euro, and tensions that have arisen within the Eurozone.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like depression and anxiety.
This document discusses the theory of optimum currency areas. It begins by outlining the history and development of the theory since the 1950s. The pioneering phase in the 1960s identified several key properties that could determine whether a geographic region is an optimal currency area, including price and wage flexibility, mobility of labor and production, economic openness, and political integration. The modern phase since the 1990s has taken a more empirical approach in testing these properties based on the creation of the European Monetary Union. The theory continues to evolve in evaluating the costs and benefits of countries joining a currency union.
- The document discusses the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Environmental Stewardship schemes in the UK.
- CAP aimed to support farmers, ensure food security, and stabilize markets. It faced criticism and was reformed due to subsidies distorting trade.
- Environmental Stewardship provides funding to farmers who manage land in environmentally friendly ways. It has three levels: Entry Level Stewardship, Organic Entry Level Stewardship, and Higher Level Stewardship for more complex projects.
This document discusses labour migration and its costs and benefits. It covers several key points:
1. Labour migration occurs due to excess supply of workers in sending countries and excess demand in receiving countries. However, the effects are not always positive.
2. The effects of immigration on receiving countries include impacts on the aggregate economy, labour markets, welfare systems, immigrant assimilation patterns, and social integration.
3. Sending countries are affected through changes in demographics, economic growth, brain drain/gain, remittances, labour markets, and welfare.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) accounts for approximately 40% of the EU's budget, or around 55 billion euros per year. The CAP was established in 1957 with the goals of increasing agricultural productivity, ensuring a fair standard of living for farmers, stabilizing markets, and providing affordable food for consumers. It has undergone several reforms in response to crises and changing societal priorities around issues such as overproduction, the environment, and developing countries. The most recent reform in 2013 included agreements on convergence payments between member states, greening measures, and more flexibility for member states in implementing the policy while maintaining strict rules.
European monetary policy, fiscal policy and the global financial crisisUniversity of Limerick
This document provides an overview of a lecture on European monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the global financial crisis. It discusses the monetary unification of the EU, fiscal coordination in the eurozone, the Stability and Growth Pact, EMU performance 1999-2012, and strains within the eurozone. It also covers the objectives, instruments, and strategy of the European Central Bank, fiscal policy externalities, and the Stability and Growth Pact.
EC4333 Economics of European Integration Lecture 1Stephen Kinsella
This document provides a course outline for EC4333 Economics of European Integration. It outlines the assessment breakdown including essays, problem sheets, and exams. It also notes that lecture slides will be made available after lectures, notes will be provided at the end of class, and the instructor aims to respond to emails within one day. Students are encouraged to ask questions in class and discuss topics, and feedback will be provided on all submitted work.
The new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP): Sustainability and Innovation. Mar...telosaes
The new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP): why the reform? The CAP as a symbol of European integration. The most important novelties: Direct Aid and Rural Development. The assigned resources.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was originally devised to raise agricultural productivity, ensure fair standards of living for farmers, stabilize markets, secure food supplies, and ensure reasonable consumer prices. However, it became very costly and led to overproduction issues. While various reforms have aimed to decouple subsidies from production and promote sustainability, agriculture spending remains the second largest item in the EU budget and reform has been difficult due to electoral politics, national interests, and institutional constraints. Further changes may move the CAP in the direction of partial re-nationalization.
The document discusses different types and measurements of unemployment. It describes seasonal, frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment. It also discusses how unemployment is measured using the claimant count and labour force survey. Unemployment trends in the UK since 1990 are presented, showing the impacts of recessions. Policies to reduce unemployment through demand-side and supply-side approaches are outlined.
The document discusses whether the European Monetary Union (EMU) constitutes an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). It analyzes the EMU based on three criteria for an OCA: 1) synchronization of business cycles, 2) labor mobility, and 3) intra-trade. While the core countries show stronger synchronization and flexibility, periphery countries experience less convergence and slower adjustment to shocks. Labor mobility remains low due to cultural and economic barriers. Intra-trade has increased but benefits are not clear for all countries. In conclusion, while the EMU shares some OCA characteristics, it does not fully satisfy the conditions due to uneven economic integration and a lack of fiscal integration across members.
For all those interested in "European Common Agricultural Policy" - my new infoposter "ECONOMICS" is now available:
- the poster gives an overview of the development of economic theory from its beginnings.
- the poster shows the historical roots of economic ideas and their application to contemporary economic policy debates.
View and order at http://www.cee-portal.at/PrestaShop
Best regards
Martin Kolmhofer
Tobacco use causes over 44,000 deaths per year in South Africa. Raising tobacco excise taxes reduces cigarette consumption and smoking prevalence while also increasing government revenues. When prices increase, consumption decreases according to the first law of economics. Studies show that a 10% price increase globally would prevent 10 million tobacco-related deaths. While tobacco consumption falls with higher taxes, tax revenues still increase due to the higher tax rates. South Africa's experience from 1993-2007 shows excise tax and revenues increasing despite a 48% drop in per capita consumption. The document argues that current tax policy is not aligned with health policy and that maintaining it could increase tobacco use.
The document outlines Pakistan's proposed new economic growth strategy. It notes that Pakistan's current growth approach has led to sporadic growth driven by external factors and a lack of structural reform. The new strategy aims to increase productivity, ensure macroeconomic stability, and remove major constraints like energy shortages. It proposes reforms in governance, markets, entrepreneurship, cities, connectivity and engaging youth. The strategy argues for a new role for government focused on policy, regulation and enabling markets rather than direct ownership and financing of assets.
The document discusses the implications of a lower interest rate environment. It outlines how interest rates have declined to low levels not seen in decades. It explores reasons for the low rates, including reduced inflation and a credible Federal Reserve policy. The document examines the implications for investors like pension funds and insurers, including challenges from extended liability durations. It also looks at how institutions have responded by revisiting asset allocation studies.
1-Consistent returns above benchmark (+6% annual outperformance)
2-Very small volatility for an equity fund (-4% annual bellow benchmark)
3-Excellent relative performance throughout the financial crisis (2007-2011)
4- Stable investment philosophy all over 23 years
5-Unique and tested investment process developed by an experienced management team
6-Very high quality (ROE) and liquid concentrated portfolio
7-Defensive strategy: focus on "ensured growth" without leveraged or cyclical sectors
8-Portfolio valuation at historial minimum levels
9-Poor overlapping and low correlation with other fund managers
10-Complementary with other equity styles
The document discusses economic growth and entrepreneurship in Pakistan. It outlines Pakistan's growth experience, current growth strategy, and proposes a new growth strategy focused on consensus building, governance reforms, security, and leveraging Pakistan's strategic potential in areas like transit and logistics. Charts show Pakistan has lower investment and savings rates than regional peers. Infrastructure and institutions also lag countries like Malaysia and Thailand, representing challenges to growth. A new strategy aims to address these issues.
Sustainable Communities SA public meeting 18 April 2012 at Burnside Community Centre. Professor Peter Newman from Curtin University spoke about sustainability in communities with a focus on transport and reducing car dependence.
For all those interested in "Optimum Currency Areas" - my new infoposter "ECONOMICS" is now available:
- the poster gives an overview of the development of economic theory from its beginnings.
- the poster shows the historical roots of economic ideas and their application to contemporary economic policy debates.
View and order at http://www.cee-portal.at/PrestaShop
Best regards
Martin Kolmhofer
The document discusses key issues related to the Eurozone and Britain's position regarding adopting the Euro. It covers topics such as which countries have adopted the Euro, convergence criteria for joining, the motivations and cases for and against Britain adopting the Euro, and tensions that have arisen within the Eurozone.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms for those who already suffer from conditions like depression and anxiety.
This document discusses the theory of optimum currency areas. It begins by outlining the history and development of the theory since the 1950s. The pioneering phase in the 1960s identified several key properties that could determine whether a geographic region is an optimal currency area, including price and wage flexibility, mobility of labor and production, economic openness, and political integration. The modern phase since the 1990s has taken a more empirical approach in testing these properties based on the creation of the European Monetary Union. The theory continues to evolve in evaluating the costs and benefits of countries joining a currency union.
- The document discusses the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Environmental Stewardship schemes in the UK.
- CAP aimed to support farmers, ensure food security, and stabilize markets. It faced criticism and was reformed due to subsidies distorting trade.
- Environmental Stewardship provides funding to farmers who manage land in environmentally friendly ways. It has three levels: Entry Level Stewardship, Organic Entry Level Stewardship, and Higher Level Stewardship for more complex projects.
This document discusses labour migration and its costs and benefits. It covers several key points:
1. Labour migration occurs due to excess supply of workers in sending countries and excess demand in receiving countries. However, the effects are not always positive.
2. The effects of immigration on receiving countries include impacts on the aggregate economy, labour markets, welfare systems, immigrant assimilation patterns, and social integration.
3. Sending countries are affected through changes in demographics, economic growth, brain drain/gain, remittances, labour markets, and welfare.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) accounts for approximately 40% of the EU's budget, or around 55 billion euros per year. The CAP was established in 1957 with the goals of increasing agricultural productivity, ensuring a fair standard of living for farmers, stabilizing markets, and providing affordable food for consumers. It has undergone several reforms in response to crises and changing societal priorities around issues such as overproduction, the environment, and developing countries. The most recent reform in 2013 included agreements on convergence payments between member states, greening measures, and more flexibility for member states in implementing the policy while maintaining strict rules.
European monetary policy, fiscal policy and the global financial crisisUniversity of Limerick
This document provides an overview of a lecture on European monetary policy, fiscal policy, and the global financial crisis. It discusses the monetary unification of the EU, fiscal coordination in the eurozone, the Stability and Growth Pact, EMU performance 1999-2012, and strains within the eurozone. It also covers the objectives, instruments, and strategy of the European Central Bank, fiscal policy externalities, and the Stability and Growth Pact.
EC4333 Economics of European Integration Lecture 1Stephen Kinsella
This document provides a course outline for EC4333 Economics of European Integration. It outlines the assessment breakdown including essays, problem sheets, and exams. It also notes that lecture slides will be made available after lectures, notes will be provided at the end of class, and the instructor aims to respond to emails within one day. Students are encouraged to ask questions in class and discuss topics, and feedback will be provided on all submitted work.
The new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP): Sustainability and Innovation. Mar...telosaes
The new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP): why the reform? The CAP as a symbol of European integration. The most important novelties: Direct Aid and Rural Development. The assigned resources.
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was originally devised to raise agricultural productivity, ensure fair standards of living for farmers, stabilize markets, secure food supplies, and ensure reasonable consumer prices. However, it became very costly and led to overproduction issues. While various reforms have aimed to decouple subsidies from production and promote sustainability, agriculture spending remains the second largest item in the EU budget and reform has been difficult due to electoral politics, national interests, and institutional constraints. Further changes may move the CAP in the direction of partial re-nationalization.
The document discusses different types and measurements of unemployment. It describes seasonal, frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment. It also discusses how unemployment is measured using the claimant count and labour force survey. Unemployment trends in the UK since 1990 are presented, showing the impacts of recessions. Policies to reduce unemployment through demand-side and supply-side approaches are outlined.
The document discusses whether the European Monetary Union (EMU) constitutes an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). It analyzes the EMU based on three criteria for an OCA: 1) synchronization of business cycles, 2) labor mobility, and 3) intra-trade. While the core countries show stronger synchronization and flexibility, periphery countries experience less convergence and slower adjustment to shocks. Labor mobility remains low due to cultural and economic barriers. Intra-trade has increased but benefits are not clear for all countries. In conclusion, while the EMU shares some OCA characteristics, it does not fully satisfy the conditions due to uneven economic integration and a lack of fiscal integration across members.
For all those interested in "European Common Agricultural Policy" - my new infoposter "ECONOMICS" is now available:
- the poster gives an overview of the development of economic theory from its beginnings.
- the poster shows the historical roots of economic ideas and their application to contemporary economic policy debates.
View and order at http://www.cee-portal.at/PrestaShop
Best regards
Martin Kolmhofer
Tobacco use causes over 44,000 deaths per year in South Africa. Raising tobacco excise taxes reduces cigarette consumption and smoking prevalence while also increasing government revenues. When prices increase, consumption decreases according to the first law of economics. Studies show that a 10% price increase globally would prevent 10 million tobacco-related deaths. While tobacco consumption falls with higher taxes, tax revenues still increase due to the higher tax rates. South Africa's experience from 1993-2007 shows excise tax and revenues increasing despite a 48% drop in per capita consumption. The document argues that current tax policy is not aligned with health policy and that maintaining it could increase tobacco use.
The document outlines Pakistan's proposed new economic growth strategy. It notes that Pakistan's current growth approach has led to sporadic growth driven by external factors and a lack of structural reform. The new strategy aims to increase productivity, ensure macroeconomic stability, and remove major constraints like energy shortages. It proposes reforms in governance, markets, entrepreneurship, cities, connectivity and engaging youth. The strategy argues for a new role for government focused on policy, regulation and enabling markets rather than direct ownership and financing of assets.
The document discusses the implications of a lower interest rate environment. It outlines how interest rates have declined to low levels not seen in decades. It explores reasons for the low rates, including reduced inflation and a credible Federal Reserve policy. The document examines the implications for investors like pension funds and insurers, including challenges from extended liability durations. It also looks at how institutions have responded by revisiting asset allocation studies.
1-Consistent returns above benchmark (+6% annual outperformance)
2-Very small volatility for an equity fund (-4% annual bellow benchmark)
3-Excellent relative performance throughout the financial crisis (2007-2011)
4- Stable investment philosophy all over 23 years
5-Unique and tested investment process developed by an experienced management team
6-Very high quality (ROE) and liquid concentrated portfolio
7-Defensive strategy: focus on "ensured growth" without leveraged or cyclical sectors
8-Portfolio valuation at historial minimum levels
9-Poor overlapping and low correlation with other fund managers
10-Complementary with other equity styles
The document discusses economic growth and entrepreneurship in Pakistan. It outlines Pakistan's growth experience, current growth strategy, and proposes a new growth strategy focused on consensus building, governance reforms, security, and leveraging Pakistan's strategic potential in areas like transit and logistics. Charts show Pakistan has lower investment and savings rates than regional peers. Infrastructure and institutions also lag countries like Malaysia and Thailand, representing challenges to growth. A new strategy aims to address these issues.
Sustainable Communities SA public meeting 18 April 2012 at Burnside Community Centre. Professor Peter Newman from Curtin University spoke about sustainability in communities with a focus on transport and reducing car dependence.
This document provides an executive summary of Malaysia's plan to transition its economy to a knowledge-based economy (K-based economy). Key points:
1) Malaysia aims to develop into a K-based economy driven by knowledge, creativity, and innovation to sustain economic growth and competitiveness.
2) Seven strategic thrusts are outlined to accomplish this transition, with the most important being to cultivate necessary human resources.
3) The central mission is to optimize knowledge application across all sectors and vigorously develop knowledge-intensive industries.
4) For success, Malaysia must ensure a conducive environment, sustained competitiveness, and productive public-private partnerships.
Developing a Native Advertising ProductJack Krawczyk
Much (heated) debate has been placed recently on whether native ads that walk, act and quack like editorial content are misleading and bad for consumers. The philosophical debate is the wrong one; the focus should rather be on what is driving the disruption in the “traditional” interruptive ad format. Taking a look into the causes of this turbulence reflects the current zeitgeist and how a successful native ad product can come to life.
1-Consistent returns above benchmark (+4% annual outperformance)
2-Very small volatility for an equity fund (-4% annual bellow benchmark)
3-Excellent relative performance throughout the financial crisis (2007-2011)
4- Stable investment philosophy all over 23 years
5-Unique and tested investment process developed by an experienced management team
6-Very high quality (ROE) and liquid concentrated portfolio
7-Defensive strategy: focus on "ensured growth" without leveraged or cyclical sectors
8-Portfolio valuation at historial minimum levels
9-Poor overlapping and low correlation with other fund managers
10-Complementary with other equity styles
Livestock production and poverty alleviation in arid and semi-arid tropica...ILRI
Presented by Carlos Seré, Augustine Ayantunde, Alan Duncan, Ade Freeman, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, and Iain Wright at the XXI International Grassland Congress and VIII International Rangeland Congress, held in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China from 29 June - 5 July 2008
An overview of the Challenge Program on Water and Food's research-for-development results, and plans to address global challenges, from CPWF Director, Dr Alain Vidal
This document outlines the agenda for a presentation by Pernod Ricard Sweden at the Bordeaux International Wine Institute on January 17-18. The agenda includes an introduction, presentation on Pernod Ricard brands and the company, a discussion on intercultural management between France and Sweden, lunch, a case study on Absolut vodka, breaks, and a trend report for 2012. It also provides more details on the company presentation, including a history of Pernod Ricard since 1805, its growth through acquisitions, and its current position as a global leader in spirits.
This presentation exhibits the journey of Pakistan economy. The historical performance is exhibited and explained through contemporary theories of economics
The root-causes of the Greek sovereign debt crisisSamant Jain
To better understand the current sovereign debt crisis in Greece, a longer view is warranted. In this paper presented at the 2nd Bank of Greece workshop on the economies of Eastern European and Mediterranean countries, the Bank of Greece covers a 2 decade history of Greece leading to current financial crisis prevailing in the country and looming large over Europe and the future of EU.
The 20 year period 1989-2009 is bounded by two major fiscal crises in Greece: the 1989-1993 crisis, and the ongoing crisis. In both crises deficits exceeded 15% of GDP. In between, Greece entered the Economic and Monetary Union and adopted the Euro. To facilitate discussion the 20 year period will be divided into two parts: the 1989-1999 period, and the 2000-2009 period.
In the final part of the presentation, solutions and remedies to overcome the crisis are suggested.
California Association of Realtors presentation by Oscar Wei, senior researcher at the CA Community College Real Estate Educators' Conference - Hilton, Oakland Airport. Friday, April 20, 2012
The document discusses using paleolimnological techniques to reconstruct ecosystem responses in three peri-alpine lakes - Lake Annecy, Lake Bourget, and Lake Geneva - over the past 150 years to hierarchical effects of climate change and local human pressures. Generalized additive models are used to infer the temporal contributions of climate, nutrient inputs, and fish stocking/predation on diatom communities and other biological proxies. Results suggest climate was relatively more important than local factors in earlier periods, while local pressures like nutrients and fish stocking have dominated more recently, varying between the individual lakes. Comparing the relative impacts of different forcings over time aims to improve understanding of lake sensitivity to multiple environmental drivers.
1-Consistent returns above benchmark (+6% annual outperformance)
2-Very small volatility for an equity fund (-4% annual bellow benchmark)
3-Excellent relative performance throughout the financial crisis (2007-2011)
4- Stable investment philosophy all over 23 years
5-Unique and tested investment process developed by an experienced management team
6-Very high quality (ROE) and liquid concentrated portfolio
7-Defensive strategy: focus on "ensured growth" without leveraged or cyclical sectors
8-Portfolio valuation at historial minimum levels
9-Poor overlapping and low correlation with other fund managers
10-Complementary with other equity styles
This document discusses the challenges and opportunities facing middle-income countries as global wealth shifts. It notes that while shifting wealth has created opportunities through reduced poverty and new development resources, middle-income countries face challenges around productivity growth, social cohesion, environmental sustainability, and maintaining fiscal revenue levels. Specific challenges discussed include the risk of falling into a "middle income trap" with slowing growth, rising inequality and labor disputes, high youth unemployment in Africa, and tax revenues generally being lower in Latin American countries compared to OECD nations.
Similar to Optimum currency areas and European monetary union (20)
Temple of Asclepius in Thrace. Excavation resultsKrassimira Luka
The temple and the sanctuary around were dedicated to Asklepios Zmidrenus. This name has been known since 1875 when an inscription dedicated to him was discovered in Rome. The inscription is dated in 227 AD and was left by soldiers originating from the city of Philippopolis (modern Plovdiv).
CapTechTalks Webinar Slides June 2024 Donovan Wright.pptxCapitolTechU
Slides from a Capitol Technology University webinar held June 20, 2024. The webinar featured Dr. Donovan Wright, presenting on the Department of Defense Digital Transformation.
A Free 200-Page eBook ~ Brain and Mind Exercise.pptxOH TEIK BIN
(A Free eBook comprising 3 Sets of Presentation of a selection of Puzzles, Brain Teasers and Thinking Problems to exercise both the mind and the Right and Left Brain. To help keep the mind and brain fit and healthy. Good for both the young and old alike.
Answers are given for all the puzzles and problems.)
With Metta,
Bro. Oh Teik Bin 🙏🤓🤔🥰
Philippine Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) CurriculumMJDuyan
(𝐓𝐋𝐄 𝟏𝟎𝟎) (𝐋𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐨𝐧 𝟏)-𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐦𝐬
𝐃𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐄𝐏𝐏 𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐮𝐦 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐡𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐩𝐩𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐬:
- Understand the goals and objectives of the Edukasyong Pantahanan at Pangkabuhayan (EPP) curriculum, recognizing its importance in fostering practical life skills and values among students. Students will also be able to identify the key components and subjects covered, such as agriculture, home economics, industrial arts, and information and communication technology.
𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐍𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐒𝐜𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧 𝐄𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐮𝐫:
-Define entrepreneurship, distinguishing it from general business activities by emphasizing its focus on innovation, risk-taking, and value creation. Students will describe the characteristics and traits of successful entrepreneurs, including their roles and responsibilities, and discuss the broader economic and social impacts of entrepreneurial activities on both local and global scales.
Optimum currency areas and European monetary union
1. ECON339
EURO339
Lecture 3: Optimum
currency areas and
European monetary union
January 2012
2. ECON339 / EURO339
Overview
The exchange rate and monetary policy
Types of exchange rate regime – what are the choices?
Monetary union, optimum currency areas and the
European Union
2
3. ECON339 / EURO339
The eurozone (17)
1999:
Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxe
mbourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain
2000: Greece
2007: Slovenia
2008: Cyprus, Malta
2009: Slovakia
2011: Estonia
Sweden, Denmark, UK opt-out – other 7 have to join
San Marino, Monaco and Vatican City – with agreement
Andorra, Kosovo and Montenegro – without agreement
(≈“dollarisation”) 3
5. ECON339 / EURO339
Background theory
A quick refresher on basic macroeconomic principles
Application of these principles to the choice of exchange
rate regimes
Europe‟s monetary integration is a history of seeking
exchange rate stability
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The question and the answer
The question: what to do with the exchange rates?
The answer: there is no best arrangement
It is a matter of trade-offs
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Three basic principles
Long term: neutrality of money
In the long run, money, the price level and the exchange
rate tend to move proportionately
Short term: non-neutrality of money
Sticky prices mean real short-run effects
Interest parity condition
With integrated capital markets r = r*
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Long-term: neutrality of money (1)
Annual averages Comparison between
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France and Switzerland
20
Growth rate in France less
15 growth rate in
Switzerland
10
5
0
Year to year:
-5
nothing really visible
-10
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Money grow th Inflation
Exchange rate
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PPP: an implication of long-term
neutrality (1)
Absolute purchasing power parity
Based on “law of one price”
So long-run equilibrium exchange rate must adjust to
equalise purchasing power of different currencies
The real exchange rate:
defined as = EP/P*
if absolute PPP, then EP = P*
eg, if X is NZ$2.50 and US$2.00
then E = US$2.00/NZ$2.50 = US$0.80/NZ$ for PPP
so =1
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PPP: an implication of long-term
neutrality (2)
The real exchange rate with relative PPP:
defined as = EP/P*
PPP: E offsets changes in P/P*
so is constant
Equivalently: ΔE ΔP * ΔP
E P* P
or e = п* - п
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PPP: an implication of long-term
neutrality (3)
France and Switzerland: averages 1951-2004
Average money growth: France less Switzerland 2.5
Average inflation: France less Switzerland 2.4
Average appreciation CHF vs. FRF 3.0
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PPP: an implication of long-term
neutrality (4)
600
500
Germany and the
400
UK (1951-2004)
300
200
100
0
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Nominal Exchange Rate Real Exchange Rate 16
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Caveat: the Balassa-Samuelson Effect
(1)
Consumer price levels in wealthier countries are systematically higher
than poorer ones – why?
Most workers in rich countries have higher productivity than in poor
countries
But burger flippers have same productivity everywhere (in burgers
per hour)
To get burger flippers in rich countries, have to pay more than in poor
countries
So burgers cost more in rich countries
CPI is made up of:
local goods (which are expensive relative to tradables in rich countries)
tradables, which have the same price everywhere
So the price level is higher in more productive, richer, economies
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Caveat: the Balassa-Samuelson Effect
(2) – RER ( ) rises with convergence
Average annual changes vis-à-vis the Eurozone
(1993-2005, % per annum)
Czech Hungary Poland Slovak
Rep. Rep.
Real appreciation 4.4 3.4 2.9 3.5
Inflation differential 3.6 10.3 8.7 4.2
Nominal appreciation 0.8 -6.9 -5.8 -0.7
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Short-term non-neutrality of money
From AD-AS: the short-run AS schedule
Monetary policy matters in the short run
Channels of monetary policy:
the interest rate channel (cheaper loans)
the credit channel (more liquidity = more credit)
the stock market channel (wealth effect)
the exchange rate channel (cheaper exports) – very
important channel in open economies
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Why does the choice of exchange
rate regime matter?
In the short run, changes in E are mirrored in changes
in = EP/P*…
…because P and P* are sticky
In the long run, is independent of E…
…because P adjusts
The choice of an exchange rate regime matters in the
short run because prices (and wages) are sticky
The choice of exchange rate regime determines the
effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy to absorb
shocks
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What’s on the menu?
Free floating Flexible
Managed floating
Target zones
Crawling pegs
Fixed and adjustable
Currency boards
Dollarization/euroization
Monetary union Fixed
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The choice of an exchange rate
regime
The monetary policy instrument:
flexible exchange rates
can be useful to deal with cyclical disturbances
can be politically abused (independent central banks)
The fiscal policy instrument:
fixed exchange rates
can also deal with cycles, but can also be politicised
(political cycles)
deficits can lead to unsustainable public debt
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The Two-Corners Solution (1)
Only pure floats or hard pegs are robust:
intermediate arrangements (soft pegs) invite
government manipulations, over or under valuations
and speculative attacks
pure floats remove the exchange rate from the policy
domain
hard pegs (eg, currency boards) are unassailable…..
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….although Argentina’s currency board
collapsed in 2002
Not a true 100% backed currency
board
Argentine defaulted on external debt
in 2002
Unemployment more than 25%
Massive capital outflows, runs on
banks
Peso depreciated 75% after being
devalued and floated
Michael Bleaney (2004), „Argentina's
Currency Board Collapse: Weak Policy
or Bad Luck?‟ The World Economy, 27
(5), 699–714
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Hong Kong currency board 1997-98
Aftermath of 1997 Asian financial crisis, risk re-priced, Asian
currencies vulnerable
Hong Kong dollar pegged to US$ through 100% currency
board
First speculative attack – investors short HK$
HKG raised interest rates
Second double-pronged speculative attack – investors short
HK$ and HKG shares to force HKG to float to prevent collapse
of stock market
HKG raised interest rates
And OMO in stock market, bought 40% of shares to defend
market, banned short-selling
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The road to monetary union
EU has also regarded exchange rate volatility as an
obstacle to free trade in goods, services, labour and
capital
History of European attempts to “fix” cross-rates
The European Monetary System, deutschmark bloc and
the 1992-93 exchange rate crises
Monetary union (hard pegs, then single currency)
emerged as preferred policy choice
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Benefits and costs of monetary
union
The benefits:
Eliminate exchange rate uncertainty (promote cross border
trade, investment)
Eliminate transactions costs (with single currency)
Transparent prices (promote competition)
Low, stable inflation (lower nominal interest rates)
The costs:
Loss of monetary sovereignty (independent monetary policy
with flexible exchange rate)…
…which matters in presence of price and wage stickiness and
asymmetric shocks
Risk of sovereign default (more next week) 30
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Benefits and costs are a function of the
number of countries in the monetary union
The benefits:
Money exhibits increasing returns to scale (network
externalities) – the more people accept a currency, the more
useful it is
A world-wide monetary union (“currency area”) is the way to
maximize these benefits
The costs:
As size of (currency area) grows, greater diversity of national
macroeconomic conditions
Loss of monetary sovereignty (independent monetary policy
with flexible exchange rate)…
…and greater likelihood of asymmetric shocks
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The economic toolkit
There must be
benefits and
costs involved
in adopting a
common
currency…
…and so an
optimum size
for the
currency area
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The key is asymmetric shock
The benefits argue for one worldwide currency
The costs depend on asymmetric shocks which affect one
country more than others……
…..so that „one size‟ monetary policy does not fit all
countries
Look at asymmetric shocks:
How do they create trouble?
What makes them more likely?
What makes them less painful?
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A demand shock: how does the
exchange rate help?
Supply of domestic goods rises
as RER appreciates –
profitability increases as some
costs tied to foreign prices
Demand for domestic goods
falls as RER rises, switch to
foreign goods
Could use RER in terms of
production costs EW/W*, since
costs feed into prices
Need P, W to fall or
E to depreciate 34
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Symmetric shock
Same demand shock in two similar countries that share the same currency
and, therefore, exchange rate: no problem.
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Asymmetric shock: response 1
Country A wants a depreciation to λ1. With sticky prices, country B faces
inflationary excess demand. No „one size fits all‟.
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Asymmetric shock: response 2
Depreciate common currency to „correct‟ average RER, λ2: excess supply in
country A, excess demand in country B. Still no one sizes fits all.
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Asymmetric shock: response 2
(cont’d)
Excess supply in country A -> recession, eventually prices fall; excess demand in
country B -> inflation, prices rise. Equilibrium restored.
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Implications of asymmetric shocks
Both countries are hurt when they share the same currency
….also if a symmetric shock creates asymmetric effects
(because economic structures different)
This is an unavoidable cost
So:
What reduces the incidence of asymmetric shocks?
or
What makes it easier to cope with shocks when they occur?
The analysis develops six OCA criteria
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Six OCA criteria
Three classic (economic) criteria
Labour mobility (Mundell)
Product diversification (Kenen)
Openness (McKinnon)
Three political criteria
Fiscal transfers
Homogeneity of preferences
Solidarity
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Criterion 1: labour mobility (1)
In an OCA, labour moves easily across national borders, from country
A (recession) to B (inflation). Equilibrium restored at λ2.
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Criterion 1: labour mobility (2)
In an OCA, labour moves easily across national
borders…..
…..but:
labour mobility is easy within national borders
(culture, language, legislation, welfare, etc)
financial vs physical capital – financial capital mobile, but
workers need physical capital as well, immobile in short
run
in presence of country specialization, labour skills also
matter
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Criterion 2: production diversification
Most shocks associated with changes in spending
patterns, new technologies which bring about new
product choices
If countries‟ production and exports are widely
diversified and of similar structure, then…..
…there are few asymmetric shocks and each is likely to
be of small concern
Such countries form an OCA
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Criterion 3: openness
Countries which are very open to trade and trade
heavily with each other form an OCA
Distinguish between traded and non-traded goods:
traded good prices are set worldwide
a small economy is price-taker, so the exchange rate does
not affect competitiveness
In the limit, if all goods are traded, domestic good
prices must be flexible and the exchange rate does not
matter for competitiveness
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Criterion 4: fiscal transfers
Countries that agree to compensate each other for
adverse shocks form an OCA
Transfers can act as an insurance that mitigates the
costs of an asymmetric shock
Transfers exist within national borders:
implicitly through the welfare system
explicitly in federal states
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Criterion 5: homogeneous
preferences
Countries that share a wide consensus on the way to
deal with shocks form an OCA
Matters primarily for symmetric shocks:
prevalent when the Kenen (product diversification)
criterion is satisfied
May also help for asymmetric shocks:
better understanding of partners‟ actions
encourages transfers
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Criterion 6: solidarity
Countries that view themselves as sharing a common
destiny better accept the costs of operating an OCA
A common currency will always face occasional
asymmetric shocks that result in temporary conflicts of
interests:
this calls for accepting such economic costs in the name of
a higher purpose
Greek bail out?
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A summary
Very Product
Open differentiation
(McKinon) (Kenen)
Low likelihood
of asymmetric
shocks
YES: NO:
OCA Need adjusment
Labour
mobility
(Mundell)
YES: NO:
OCA need adjustnent
Flexible
wages and
prices
YES: NO:
OCA need political
support
Homogeneity
Transfers of Solidarity
preferences 49
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Is Europe an OCA?
A synthetic OCA
index:
How much should
countries have
adjusted ER vis-à-
vis DM in response
to asymmetric
shocks?
The bigger the
shocks and the
more adjustment
needed, the higher
the index
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Inside the OCA Index: labour mobility
(1)
The labour mobility criterion cannot be black-and-white
The migration response to economic incentives must factor
in many costs:
moving costs
risk of becoming unemployed
longer run career opportunities
family prospects
eligibility to welfare
taxation
cultural/linguistic differences
national attachment
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Inside the OCA Index: labour mobility
(2)
An international
comparison suggests
that labour mobility is
low in Europe
Low labour mobility
implies that
unemployment bears
much of the burden of
adjustment to shocks
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Inside the OCA Index: diversification
Trade dissimilarity
index:
How dissimilar is trade
from Germany
(benchmark)?
Most EU countries have
a diversified production
structure (intra-
industry trade
dominates)
The Kenen criterion is
broadly satisfied and
well explains which
countries joined the
euro area
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Inside the OCA Index: openness
Most EU countries are very open (ratio of X+M to GDP)
The McKinnon criterion is broadly satisfied
Austria 52.3 Cyprus 48.3 Denmark 42.8
Belgium 87.2 Czech Republic 76.0 Sweden 43.9
Finland 35.4 Estonia 92.0 UK 27.9
France 27.2 Hungary 70.1
Germany 39.9 Latvia 55.0 Bulgaria 65.9
Greece 25.5 Lithuania 56.9 Croatia 54.4
Ireland 72.6 Malta 81.8 Romania 39.3
Italy 27.9 Poland 40.9 Turkey 36.5
Luxembourg 133.3 Slovak Republic 83.6
Netherlands 66.4 Slovenia 63.1
Portugal 36.2 US 13.8
Spain 29.5 EU-25 10.7 Japan 13.5
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Is Europe an OCA: a complication…..
Asymmetric effects of symmetric shocks: effects on GDP and prices of a
change of the common interest rate
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Inside the OCA Index: political
criteria
The EU does not satisfy the transfer criterion
The overall EU budget is entirely used for
agriculture, cohesion, administration
Net transfers not related to pc GDP
Little is known about:
Homogeneity of preferences
Commonality of destiny…although most public opinion in
favour of EU
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Commonality of destiny: poll results
EU25
SI
SK
HU
IT
ES
Do you support European
EL
BE
PL
political union?
CZ
DE
CY
LU
(Eurobarometer, 2005)
LV
PT
MT
LT
EE
FR
NL
IE
DK
SE
AT
FI
UK
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
For Against Don't know 57
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History never ends: the endogeneity
of OCA criteria
Living in a monetary union may help fulfil the OCA criteria
over time
Would the US be an OCA without a single common
currency?
Will the existence of the euro area change matters too?
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Endogeneity: EMU and labour markets
Mobility may not change much, but wages could become
less sticky
Two views:
the virtuous circle: labour markets respond to enhanced
competition by becoming more flexible
the hardening view: labour markets respond to enhanced
competition by increasing protective measures that raise
stickiness
The jury is still out
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Endogeneity: will diversification
grow or decline?
Argument 1: intra-industry trade will grow
Argument 2: specialisation will increase
No firm conclusion so far
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Endogeneity: will economies become
more open?
Little evidence that reducing exchange rate volatility
increases trade
Mounting evidence that eliminating exchange rate volatility
by adopting a common currency increases trade a lot:
estimates range from 50 per cent to 100 per cent
the „border effect‟ provides similar estimates – without common
currency, border prices can be very different (eg, US – Canada)
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Endogeneity: are the political criteria
endogenous?
Transfers:
currently no support for more taxes to finance
transfers
Homogeneity of preferences:
no presumption that it will change soon
Commonality of destiny:
no presumption that it will change soon
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Conclusions
Basic principles:
Long-term neutrality of money (PPP)
Short-term monetary policy matters, with sticky prices
Choice of exchange rate regime impacts relative effectiveness of
monetary and fiscal policy
EMU seen as the solution for the EU
The OCA criteria do not send a clear signal:
The OCA criteria tell us where the costs will arise:
labour markets and unemployment
political tensions in presence of deep asymmetric shocks
But real problem in the current EU crisis has been reliance on fiscal
policy and government deficits and insolvency – agenda for Lecture
4
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