The document summarizes key indicators of the US housing market and broader economy. It shows that while unemployment and consumer confidence remain at historically low levels, mortgage rates have declined significantly. Existing home sales have stabilized at low levels recently, and housing inventory, while still high, has started to decrease from its peak. This suggests the housing market may be approaching a bottom in 2009 if these trends continue.
H1 2009 IFRS Results
- Despite challenging economic conditions, the company reported sound operating results in the first half of 2009.
- Total deposits decreased 4.6% year-over-year while loans decreased 3.5%, with the loan-to-deposit ratio increasing 5.9 percentage points.
- Net profit decreased 58.8% year-over-year however total operating income increased 17.5% and operating costs decreased 13.1% leading to a 14.9 percentage point decrease in the cost to income ratio.
2001 - Financial Results 3 Q Corporate LawEmbraer RI
The document summarizes Embraer's 3rd quarter 2001 results. Key points include delivery of 41 ERJ jets, including 13 after 9/11. Embraer received orders from the Brazilian Air Force, Midwest Airlines, and the Dominican Republic. As a result of 9/11, Embraer reduced staff by 1,800 to adapt to the new economic situation while maintaining capabilities. Backlog totaled $23.9 billion, including $11.2 billion in firm orders.
1) The document discusses how maintaining or increasing marketing spend during an economic recession can provide opportunities for gaining market share from competitors who cut back.
2) It presents evidence that companies who increased marketing during recessions saw higher sales growth in subsequent years compared to those who cut back. Maintaining share of voice can directly impact maintaining market share.
3) The document warns that cutting marketing now can cause long-term damage due to loss of market share and profits in future years after the recession ends.
The document compares the performance of different portfolio allocations from 2001-2004 and 1Q 2004. It shows that portfolios with a mix of stocks and bonds significantly outperformed those with 100% stock allocations during periods of market decline from 2001-2003. The key finding is that asset allocation, or how assets are divided among asset classes like stocks and bonds, has the biggest impact on portfolio performance rather than choices about specific securities or market timing.
The document discusses the implications of a lower interest rate environment. It outlines how interest rates have declined to low levels not seen in decades. It explores reasons for the low rates, including reduced inflation and a credible Federal Reserve policy. The document examines the implications for investors like pension funds and insurers, including challenges from extended liability durations. It also looks at how institutions have responded by revisiting asset allocation studies.
This document discusses Japan's promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI). It notes the risks of an aging population and industrial hollowing out, and how FDI can help address these issues through innovation. Specific measures to promote FDI discussed include tax incentives, improving the business environment, and establishing Asian headquarters in Japan. The importance of FDI to Japan's economy has increased over time from contributing little in the 1980s to now being key for survival given current challenges.
Adding the Domestic Private Sector Financial BalanceMitch Green
The document presents data on the government balance, private sector balance, and current account balances for Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece from 1996-2011. It shows that:
1) When a country has a government surplus, the private sector balance is negative and vice versa, keeping their sum close to zero.
2) Periods of high unemployment generally coincide with current account deficits, while periods of low unemployment coincide with current account surpluses.
3) Debt crises in Europe from 2008-2011 corresponded to large government deficits and private sector surpluses in Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece.
The document discusses the declining trend growth in the United States and other economies that has made recessions more likely. It argues that the factors often cited for the "Great Moderation" period of milder business cycles - improved supply chain management, monetary policy skills, and luck in international economic synchronicity - have not resurrected. Export dependence has increased volatility rather than moderating it. The experience of sharp downturns in key exporting nations' production during the Great Recession shows that supply chain management does not smooth business cycles as expected. Monetary policy timing has also been inconsistent, with the Federal Reserve lagging behind changes in recession and inflation risks. The 1990s benefitted from a lack of synchronized international
H1 2009 IFRS Results
- Despite challenging economic conditions, the company reported sound operating results in the first half of 2009.
- Total deposits decreased 4.6% year-over-year while loans decreased 3.5%, with the loan-to-deposit ratio increasing 5.9 percentage points.
- Net profit decreased 58.8% year-over-year however total operating income increased 17.5% and operating costs decreased 13.1% leading to a 14.9 percentage point decrease in the cost to income ratio.
2001 - Financial Results 3 Q Corporate LawEmbraer RI
The document summarizes Embraer's 3rd quarter 2001 results. Key points include delivery of 41 ERJ jets, including 13 after 9/11. Embraer received orders from the Brazilian Air Force, Midwest Airlines, and the Dominican Republic. As a result of 9/11, Embraer reduced staff by 1,800 to adapt to the new economic situation while maintaining capabilities. Backlog totaled $23.9 billion, including $11.2 billion in firm orders.
1) The document discusses how maintaining or increasing marketing spend during an economic recession can provide opportunities for gaining market share from competitors who cut back.
2) It presents evidence that companies who increased marketing during recessions saw higher sales growth in subsequent years compared to those who cut back. Maintaining share of voice can directly impact maintaining market share.
3) The document warns that cutting marketing now can cause long-term damage due to loss of market share and profits in future years after the recession ends.
The document compares the performance of different portfolio allocations from 2001-2004 and 1Q 2004. It shows that portfolios with a mix of stocks and bonds significantly outperformed those with 100% stock allocations during periods of market decline from 2001-2003. The key finding is that asset allocation, or how assets are divided among asset classes like stocks and bonds, has the biggest impact on portfolio performance rather than choices about specific securities or market timing.
The document discusses the implications of a lower interest rate environment. It outlines how interest rates have declined to low levels not seen in decades. It explores reasons for the low rates, including reduced inflation and a credible Federal Reserve policy. The document examines the implications for investors like pension funds and insurers, including challenges from extended liability durations. It also looks at how institutions have responded by revisiting asset allocation studies.
This document discusses Japan's promotion of foreign direct investment (FDI). It notes the risks of an aging population and industrial hollowing out, and how FDI can help address these issues through innovation. Specific measures to promote FDI discussed include tax incentives, improving the business environment, and establishing Asian headquarters in Japan. The importance of FDI to Japan's economy has increased over time from contributing little in the 1980s to now being key for survival given current challenges.
Adding the Domestic Private Sector Financial BalanceMitch Green
The document presents data on the government balance, private sector balance, and current account balances for Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece from 1996-2011. It shows that:
1) When a country has a government surplus, the private sector balance is negative and vice versa, keeping their sum close to zero.
2) Periods of high unemployment generally coincide with current account deficits, while periods of low unemployment coincide with current account surpluses.
3) Debt crises in Europe from 2008-2011 corresponded to large government deficits and private sector surpluses in Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Greece.
The document discusses the declining trend growth in the United States and other economies that has made recessions more likely. It argues that the factors often cited for the "Great Moderation" period of milder business cycles - improved supply chain management, monetary policy skills, and luck in international economic synchronicity - have not resurrected. Export dependence has increased volatility rather than moderating it. The experience of sharp downturns in key exporting nations' production during the Great Recession shows that supply chain management does not smooth business cycles as expected. Monetary policy timing has also been inconsistent, with the Federal Reserve lagging behind changes in recession and inflation risks. The 1990s benefitted from a lack of synchronized international
Questions For Management And Directors, A Roadmap For Expansion And Growthharrylong
Fremont Michigan Insuracorp provides property and casualty insurance in Michigan. While it has a strong balance sheet and growing book value, its personal lines have become unprofitable despite growing premiums. The document raises concerns about this and questions what management is doing to address the issue. It suggests management should take actions like ranking agencies by losses, stopping credit scoring, and expanding operations outside of Michigan to improve profitability.
John Michael Staatz - Agricultural price volatility: causes, impacts & policy...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
This document summarizes a presentation on agricultural price volatility. It discusses the causes of volatility, including supply and demand shocks as well as government trade policies. On the supply side, weather events, low stock levels, and trade restrictions can exacerbate volatility. Rising incomes have made demand more inelastic. The presentation also outlines actions that could help reduce volatility, such as reducing trade barriers and improving market information.
This document discusses productivity growth in the United States economy. It notes that productivity gains have become increasingly important drivers of GDP growth. To sustain historical GDP growth rates of around 2.8% annually will require productivity growth of around 1.7% per year. The document examines opportunities to boost productivity through various means, such as adopting best practices, innovation, increasing labor utilization, and reducing regulatory burdens. It argues that policies tailored to individual sectors could help maximize productivity on a national level.
Successful investing requires different skills in bear markets than in bull markets. In bear markets, protecting assets from losses is crucial to long-term performance. Bear markets are typically characterized by high valuations at the start that decline, volatility with frequent rallies and falls, and negative returns that last for multiple years. In bull markets, gains can be achieved through buying and holding, as bull markets start at low valuations and end at high valuations, lasting for multiple positive years. Managing investments requires understanding the characteristics of secular bull and bear markets and employing different strategies depending on market conditions.
This document discusses the future of public newscasting in the face of increased competition. It summarizes the past challenges faced by public news organizations from commercial competitors taking market share. To recover, a branding strategy was implemented in 1997 focusing on connecting with audiences through targeting programming, look and feel, branding and advertising. This stopped the negative trend and regained leadership by 2002. Future trends discussed include convergence, concentration, choice fragmentation and a shift of control to the public. A dual news branding strategy is proposed using a new dedicated news brand for specialists and using an existing brand as a source brand to endorse all news productions across multiple media brands.
Software and Systems Quarterly Market UpdateMMMTechLaw
This document provides a quarterly market update on macroeconomic conditions, the technology sector, and valuation metrics. Some key points:
- IT spending remains correlated with economic growth and is a leading indicator of improvement, though unemployment remains high.
- Access to capital markets and record corporate cash balances are fueling productivity-enhancing IT investments.
- Historically low interest rates are powering record corporate debt issuance in 2011 across investment grade, high yield, and loan markets.
- Since 2009, technology stocks have outperformed the broader market, with enterprise applications and SaaS companies showing the strongest gains.
- Valuations are highest for companies exhibiting above-average revenue growth and profit
The document provides an overview of a company's 9M 2009 financial results and operating environment. Some key points:
- Total deposits declined 9% year-over-year while retail deposits grew nearly 6%, and the loans to deposits ratio fell 3.8 percentage points.
- Net profit was down 67% year-over-year due to a 18% decline in net loans, though operating income grew nearly 7% and costs fell 12.5%.
- Despite slowing business activity, net interest income was flat quarter-over-quarter while the net interest margin held steady. Operating expenses continued to be well-controlled, declining nearly 12% year-over-year.
The document analyzes economic indicators in Jamaica from 1989/90 to 2010/11. It shows that the exchange rate depreciated at annual rates of 14.67% from 1989 to 2007 and 5.2% from 2007 to 2011. Annual inflation averaged 19.68% from 1989 to 2007 and 11.68% from 2008 to 2011. Government domestic and total debt increased substantially over the periods analyzed, with domestic debt rising by 4,200% from 1990/91 to 2010/11. External debt also rose sharply.
1) The document discusses how maintaining or increasing marketing spend during an economic recession can provide opportunities for gaining market share from competitors who cut back.
2) It presents evidence that companies who increased marketing during recessions saw higher sales growth in subsequent years compared to those who cut back. Maintaining share of voice can directly impact maintaining market share.
3) The document warns that cutting marketing now can cause long-term damage due to loss of market share and profits in future years after the recession ends.
The document summarizes key points from a presentation given at a ULI Fall Meeting in Miami Beach, FL in October 2008 regarding the global credit crunch and its impacts. Some of the key points include: construction completions in the US are much lower now than in the 1980s and will not likely cause overbuilding; commercial mortgage debt outstanding in the US grew significantly as a percentage of GDP leading up to the credit crunch; global investment sales transaction volumes and property values have declined significantly due to the credit crunch; and the world's reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf region has significant geopolitical implications.
Embraer Day NY 2009 - Apresentação Aviação ExecutivaEmbraer RI
This document provides an executive summary of Embraer's 9th Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting. It includes forward-looking statements and discusses trends in global GDP growth rates, the used aircraft market and inventory levels, changes in used aircraft asking prices, Embraer's product portfolio including the Phenom 100 and 300 jets, and new programs like the Legacy 450/500 and Lineage 1000. It also touches on Embraer's customer support solutions like its service center network and training programs.
Embraer Day 2009 NY - Executive Jets PresentationEmbraer RI
The document provides an executive overview of Embraer's executive aviation business at their 9th annual analyst and investor meeting. It includes forward-looking statements and discusses trends in the global and used aircraft markets in 2009, such as declining GDP growth forecasts and rising aircraft inventories putting downward pressure on used aircraft prices. The presentation also profiles Embraer's Phenom 100 light jet and its certified performance specifications.
2009* Embraer Day Ny 2009 ApresentaçãO AviaçãO ExecutivaEmbraer RI
This document provides an executive summary of Embraer's 9th Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting. It includes forward-looking statements and discusses trends in global GDP growth rates, the used aircraft market and inventory levels, changes in used aircraft asking prices, Embraer's product portfolio including the Phenom 100 and 300 jets, and plans for new Legacy series jets. It also summarizes certification data and customer support services.
Update on the environment and trends being experienced by the property casualty insurance industry presented to a group of executives attending MapInfo's MapWorld conference.
CUPE’s national pension trustee training began with a panel on the state of public and workplace pensions. CUPE economist Toby Sanger kicked off the discussion with a overview of how the economic crisis and its fallout will affect pensions.
This presentation provides forward-looking statements and highlights for Embraer in 2009. It summarizes that Embraer achieved its operational targets for 2009 despite economic challenges. Key accomplishments included a 20% reduction in SG&A expenses, a $500 million bond issue, and increased market share in business jets. Financial results showed lower revenues but higher margins, EBITDA, and cash position compared to 2008. The outlook anticipates continued challenges in 2010 but guidance for net revenues of $5 billion, EBIT of $300 million, and investments of $300 million.
This presentation provides forward-looking statements and highlights for Embraer in 2009. It summarizes that Embraer achieved its operational targets for 2009 despite economic challenges. Key accomplishments included a net cash position of $500 million, a successful bond issue, cost reductions, increased market share in business jets, and progress on new aircraft programs. Financial results showed lower revenues but higher margins, reductions in expenses and inventory, and a return to profitability. Guidance for 2010 projects revenues of $5 billion and a return to growth.
04 01 2009 I Embraer Day 2009 Ny Executive Jets PresentationEmbraer RI
This document provides an overview of Embraer's executive aviation business from its 9th US Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting. It discusses Embraer's executive jet product portfolio including the Phenom 100 and 300, Legacy 450/500, and Lineage 1000. Performance data for these models is presented. It also summarizes Embraer's customer support solutions including its growing global service center network and training programs.
01 04 2009 I Embraer Day Ny 2009 ApresentaçãO AviaçãO ExecutivaEmbraer RI
This document provides an overview of Embraer's executive aviation business from its 9th US Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting. It discusses Embraer's executive jet product portfolio including the Phenom 100 and 300, Legacy 450/500, and Lineage 1000. Performance data for these models is presented. It also summarizes Embraer's customer support solutions including its growing global service center network and training programs.
2006:Botswana - Recent Economic Developments and Prospectseconsultbw
Recent economic developments in Botswana show signs of recovery in some areas but continued weakness in others. Mining sector growth remains strong while the non-mining sector shows only weak evidence of recovery. Inflation rose sharply but has been decreasing, though it remains above the central bank's target range. Exchange rate policies have helped restore competitiveness. Banking sector liquidity is high and may contribute to further credit growth above the central bank's target range.
This document discusses entrepreneurship and early stage capital challenges. It notes that while about half a million startups are formed in the US each year, creating all net new jobs, most struggle to survive the "valley of death" between seed funding and later stage capital. Venture capital funds are now too large for most startups, so angels have become important early investors, though South Carolina lags in VC and angel funding per capita. The Upstate Capital Angel Network (UCAN) aims to help fill this gap by investing in scalable Southeast startups, though barriers around talent, technology costs, and regulations still exist. The presentation closes by praising entrepreneurs for the risks and sacrifices they take to drive economic growth.
Economic achievements and problems of monetary policy ofSoftServe
The document summarizes the monetary policy of Ukraine from 1991-2011 in 3 phases:
1) 1991-1996 focused on establishing a national monetary system and preparing for a national currency. Inflation reached 2100% in 1992 and 10,256% in 1993 while GDP declined.
2) 1996-1998 developed government bond markets to issue treasury bills and stabilize inflation.
3) 1999-2011 saw stabilization of the economy, reduction of inflation to 116.6% by 2007, and growth in real GDP and wages, though money supply and public debt increased which led to economic issues. Positive measures included stabilizing currency and inflation while mistakes included excessive money printing and delays in inflation control.
Questions For Management And Directors, A Roadmap For Expansion And Growthharrylong
Fremont Michigan Insuracorp provides property and casualty insurance in Michigan. While it has a strong balance sheet and growing book value, its personal lines have become unprofitable despite growing premiums. The document raises concerns about this and questions what management is doing to address the issue. It suggests management should take actions like ranking agencies by losses, stopping credit scoring, and expanding operations outside of Michigan to improve profitability.
John Michael Staatz - Agricultural price volatility: causes, impacts & policy...Global Risk Forum GRFDavos
This document summarizes a presentation on agricultural price volatility. It discusses the causes of volatility, including supply and demand shocks as well as government trade policies. On the supply side, weather events, low stock levels, and trade restrictions can exacerbate volatility. Rising incomes have made demand more inelastic. The presentation also outlines actions that could help reduce volatility, such as reducing trade barriers and improving market information.
This document discusses productivity growth in the United States economy. It notes that productivity gains have become increasingly important drivers of GDP growth. To sustain historical GDP growth rates of around 2.8% annually will require productivity growth of around 1.7% per year. The document examines opportunities to boost productivity through various means, such as adopting best practices, innovation, increasing labor utilization, and reducing regulatory burdens. It argues that policies tailored to individual sectors could help maximize productivity on a national level.
Successful investing requires different skills in bear markets than in bull markets. In bear markets, protecting assets from losses is crucial to long-term performance. Bear markets are typically characterized by high valuations at the start that decline, volatility with frequent rallies and falls, and negative returns that last for multiple years. In bull markets, gains can be achieved through buying and holding, as bull markets start at low valuations and end at high valuations, lasting for multiple positive years. Managing investments requires understanding the characteristics of secular bull and bear markets and employing different strategies depending on market conditions.
This document discusses the future of public newscasting in the face of increased competition. It summarizes the past challenges faced by public news organizations from commercial competitors taking market share. To recover, a branding strategy was implemented in 1997 focusing on connecting with audiences through targeting programming, look and feel, branding and advertising. This stopped the negative trend and regained leadership by 2002. Future trends discussed include convergence, concentration, choice fragmentation and a shift of control to the public. A dual news branding strategy is proposed using a new dedicated news brand for specialists and using an existing brand as a source brand to endorse all news productions across multiple media brands.
Software and Systems Quarterly Market UpdateMMMTechLaw
This document provides a quarterly market update on macroeconomic conditions, the technology sector, and valuation metrics. Some key points:
- IT spending remains correlated with economic growth and is a leading indicator of improvement, though unemployment remains high.
- Access to capital markets and record corporate cash balances are fueling productivity-enhancing IT investments.
- Historically low interest rates are powering record corporate debt issuance in 2011 across investment grade, high yield, and loan markets.
- Since 2009, technology stocks have outperformed the broader market, with enterprise applications and SaaS companies showing the strongest gains.
- Valuations are highest for companies exhibiting above-average revenue growth and profit
The document provides an overview of a company's 9M 2009 financial results and operating environment. Some key points:
- Total deposits declined 9% year-over-year while retail deposits grew nearly 6%, and the loans to deposits ratio fell 3.8 percentage points.
- Net profit was down 67% year-over-year due to a 18% decline in net loans, though operating income grew nearly 7% and costs fell 12.5%.
- Despite slowing business activity, net interest income was flat quarter-over-quarter while the net interest margin held steady. Operating expenses continued to be well-controlled, declining nearly 12% year-over-year.
The document analyzes economic indicators in Jamaica from 1989/90 to 2010/11. It shows that the exchange rate depreciated at annual rates of 14.67% from 1989 to 2007 and 5.2% from 2007 to 2011. Annual inflation averaged 19.68% from 1989 to 2007 and 11.68% from 2008 to 2011. Government domestic and total debt increased substantially over the periods analyzed, with domestic debt rising by 4,200% from 1990/91 to 2010/11. External debt also rose sharply.
1) The document discusses how maintaining or increasing marketing spend during an economic recession can provide opportunities for gaining market share from competitors who cut back.
2) It presents evidence that companies who increased marketing during recessions saw higher sales growth in subsequent years compared to those who cut back. Maintaining share of voice can directly impact maintaining market share.
3) The document warns that cutting marketing now can cause long-term damage due to loss of market share and profits in future years after the recession ends.
The document summarizes key points from a presentation given at a ULI Fall Meeting in Miami Beach, FL in October 2008 regarding the global credit crunch and its impacts. Some of the key points include: construction completions in the US are much lower now than in the 1980s and will not likely cause overbuilding; commercial mortgage debt outstanding in the US grew significantly as a percentage of GDP leading up to the credit crunch; global investment sales transaction volumes and property values have declined significantly due to the credit crunch; and the world's reliance on oil from the Persian Gulf region has significant geopolitical implications.
Embraer Day NY 2009 - Apresentação Aviação ExecutivaEmbraer RI
This document provides an executive summary of Embraer's 9th Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting. It includes forward-looking statements and discusses trends in global GDP growth rates, the used aircraft market and inventory levels, changes in used aircraft asking prices, Embraer's product portfolio including the Phenom 100 and 300 jets, and new programs like the Legacy 450/500 and Lineage 1000. It also touches on Embraer's customer support solutions like its service center network and training programs.
Embraer Day 2009 NY - Executive Jets PresentationEmbraer RI
The document provides an executive overview of Embraer's executive aviation business at their 9th annual analyst and investor meeting. It includes forward-looking statements and discusses trends in the global and used aircraft markets in 2009, such as declining GDP growth forecasts and rising aircraft inventories putting downward pressure on used aircraft prices. The presentation also profiles Embraer's Phenom 100 light jet and its certified performance specifications.
2009* Embraer Day Ny 2009 ApresentaçãO AviaçãO ExecutivaEmbraer RI
This document provides an executive summary of Embraer's 9th Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting. It includes forward-looking statements and discusses trends in global GDP growth rates, the used aircraft market and inventory levels, changes in used aircraft asking prices, Embraer's product portfolio including the Phenom 100 and 300 jets, and plans for new Legacy series jets. It also summarizes certification data and customer support services.
Update on the environment and trends being experienced by the property casualty insurance industry presented to a group of executives attending MapInfo's MapWorld conference.
CUPE’s national pension trustee training began with a panel on the state of public and workplace pensions. CUPE economist Toby Sanger kicked off the discussion with a overview of how the economic crisis and its fallout will affect pensions.
This presentation provides forward-looking statements and highlights for Embraer in 2009. It summarizes that Embraer achieved its operational targets for 2009 despite economic challenges. Key accomplishments included a 20% reduction in SG&A expenses, a $500 million bond issue, and increased market share in business jets. Financial results showed lower revenues but higher margins, EBITDA, and cash position compared to 2008. The outlook anticipates continued challenges in 2010 but guidance for net revenues of $5 billion, EBIT of $300 million, and investments of $300 million.
This presentation provides forward-looking statements and highlights for Embraer in 2009. It summarizes that Embraer achieved its operational targets for 2009 despite economic challenges. Key accomplishments included a net cash position of $500 million, a successful bond issue, cost reductions, increased market share in business jets, and progress on new aircraft programs. Financial results showed lower revenues but higher margins, reductions in expenses and inventory, and a return to profitability. Guidance for 2010 projects revenues of $5 billion and a return to growth.
04 01 2009 I Embraer Day 2009 Ny Executive Jets PresentationEmbraer RI
This document provides an overview of Embraer's executive aviation business from its 9th US Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting. It discusses Embraer's executive jet product portfolio including the Phenom 100 and 300, Legacy 450/500, and Lineage 1000. Performance data for these models is presented. It also summarizes Embraer's customer support solutions including its growing global service center network and training programs.
01 04 2009 I Embraer Day Ny 2009 ApresentaçãO AviaçãO ExecutivaEmbraer RI
This document provides an overview of Embraer's executive aviation business from its 9th US Annual Analyst & Investor Meeting. It discusses Embraer's executive jet product portfolio including the Phenom 100 and 300, Legacy 450/500, and Lineage 1000. Performance data for these models is presented. It also summarizes Embraer's customer support solutions including its growing global service center network and training programs.
2006:Botswana - Recent Economic Developments and Prospectseconsultbw
Recent economic developments in Botswana show signs of recovery in some areas but continued weakness in others. Mining sector growth remains strong while the non-mining sector shows only weak evidence of recovery. Inflation rose sharply but has been decreasing, though it remains above the central bank's target range. Exchange rate policies have helped restore competitiveness. Banking sector liquidity is high and may contribute to further credit growth above the central bank's target range.
This document discusses entrepreneurship and early stage capital challenges. It notes that while about half a million startups are formed in the US each year, creating all net new jobs, most struggle to survive the "valley of death" between seed funding and later stage capital. Venture capital funds are now too large for most startups, so angels have become important early investors, though South Carolina lags in VC and angel funding per capita. The Upstate Capital Angel Network (UCAN) aims to help fill this gap by investing in scalable Southeast startups, though barriers around talent, technology costs, and regulations still exist. The presentation closes by praising entrepreneurs for the risks and sacrifices they take to drive economic growth.
Economic achievements and problems of monetary policy ofSoftServe
The document summarizes the monetary policy of Ukraine from 1991-2011 in 3 phases:
1) 1991-1996 focused on establishing a national monetary system and preparing for a national currency. Inflation reached 2100% in 1992 and 10,256% in 1993 while GDP declined.
2) 1996-1998 developed government bond markets to issue treasury bills and stabilize inflation.
3) 1999-2011 saw stabilization of the economy, reduction of inflation to 116.6% by 2007, and growth in real GDP and wages, though money supply and public debt increased which led to economic issues. Positive measures included stabilizing currency and inflation while mistakes included excessive money printing and delays in inflation control.
Economic achievements and problems of monetary policy of
San Diego ULI Young Leaders
1. Prospects for a Housing
Market Bottom in 2009?
For: ULI San Diego Young Leaders
June 2, 2009
SULLIVAN GROUP REAL ESTATE ADVISORS
Peter Dennehy, Sr. Vice President
(858) 523-1443 x118
p.dennehy@sgrea.com
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
2. Agenda
I. The Big Picture
II. The San Diego Market
III. Discussion
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
3. I. THE BIG PICTURE
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
4. Is the Current Economy A New Phenomena?
Debt Threatens Democracy.
Harper’s, 1940
Is the Country Swamped with Debt?
Business Week, 1949
Never Have So Many Owed So Much.
U.S. News & World Report, 1959
Time for a New Frugality.
Time Magazine, 1973
Over the Ears in Debt.
Time Magazine, 1987
Source: Time Magazine
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
5. GDP Growth is Declining
8% 1Q 2009 = -5.7%
12/07-? Recession
6%
‘81-’82 Recession
‘90-’91 Recession
‘01 Recession
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2009* using 1st qtr. data
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, released May 29, 2009; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
6. So Unemployment is Increasing
Avg. 1980 to 2008 = 6.1%
Avg. 1980 to 2008 = 6.1%
11% April 2009 = 8.9%
April 2009 = 8.9%
10%
12/07-? Recession
81-82 Recession
90-91 Recession
2001 Recession
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2009* – April
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
7. 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgages are
Historically Low
18.0% May 2009* = 4.91%
16.0%
12/07-? Recession
81-82 Recession
90-91 Recession
2001 Recession
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2009* as of May 28
Source: Freddie Mac; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
8. U.S. Consumer Confidence is Low, But Improving
160
3-Year rough patch 2Q09* = 54.9
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
88-2
89-2
90-2
91-2
92-2
93-2
94-2
95-2
96-2
97-2
98-2
99-2
00-2
01-2
02-2
03-2
04-2
05-2
06-2
07-2
08-2
09-2
*2nd Qtr 2009 as of May
Source: The Conference Board, released May 26, 2009; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
9. U.S. Existing Home Sales: Stabilizing at Low Level
7,000,000
2005 = 6,171,667 Peak
6,000,000
2009*= 4,123,334
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009P seasonally adjusted rate using data through March
Source: National Assn of Realtors; Economy.com; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
10. Resale Supply Has Leveled Recently.
Can We Work Off More Supply in 2009?
5,000,000 Months of supply was 10.7 12.0
4,500,000 months in April ‘08, but
4,000,000
dropped to 9.6 months in
April ‘09.
10.0
3,500,000 8.0
3,000,000
2,500,000 6.0
2,000,000
1,500,000 4.0
1,000,000 Listings Months of Inventory 2.0
500,000
0 0.0
Mar-99
Mar-00
Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Sep-99
Sep-00
Sep-01
Sep-02
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-05
Sep-06
Sep-07
Sep-08
Source: National Assn. of Realtors; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
11. New Home Sales Continue to Fall:
Lowest in Two Generations
1,400
2005 = 1,283,000 Peak
1,200
2008 = 485,000 Stole demand
1,000 2009*= 352,000 from future
800
600
400
200
0
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Note: 2009 as of April
Source: Census Bureau, released May 28, 2009; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
12. New Home Supply “Overhang”:
Absolute Numbers Are Declining
12.0
April 09 = 296,000 Units
April ‘09 = 10.1 Months
10.0 Aug 06 Peak = 570,000 Units
06 Peak =
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Avg. Months of Supply
Source: Census Bureau; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
13. Starts Below 1991 and 1981 Levels
2,500,000 Peak Sep 2005 = 2,263,000
2,250,000
2,000,000 “v” “u”
1,750,000
1,500,000
1,250,000
1,000,000
750,000
500,000 April 2009 = 498,000
250,000
0
1980M1
1982M1
1984M1
1986M1
1988M1
1990M1
1992M1
1994M1
1996M1
1998M1
2000M1
2002M1
2004M1
2006M1
2008M1
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, SA annual rate, released May 27, 2009; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
14. U.S. Housing Rebound: Can It Start After 2009?
2.4 Million
SF and MF Housing Starts
2.2
Average 1970-2008
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
15. National Foreclosures Still High
1,100,000
1,000,000 Quarterly Data Monthly Data
803,489
900,000 783,991 850,460
800,000
681,337
700,000 642,149
600,000
488,489
500,000 437,498
342,038
400,000 345,554
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
Apr-08
Jun-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Sep-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
May-08
Source: RealtyTrac, released May 13, 2009; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
16. III. THE SAN DIEGO MARKET
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
17. Index of Leading Economic Indicators
San Diego County
April ’09 = 100.9
160 Up 0.2 since last month 10.00%
% Change in Index From Prior Year
140
Index of Economic Indicators
5.00%
120
0.00%
100
80 -5.00%
60 Index of Economic Indicators
-10.00%
% Change From Prior Year
40
-15.00%
20
0 -20.00%
Jun-97
Jun-98
Jun-99
Jun-00
Jun-01
Jun-02
Jun-03
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Source: University of San Diego; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
18. San Diego Job Growth Negative
2005 -
2005 - 21,800
21,800
80,000 2006 -
2006 - 19,500
19,500
Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE
2007 -
2007 - 7,200
7,200
60,000 2008 -
2008 - -9,600
-9,600
40,000 2009ytd- -8,150
2009ytd- -8,150
20,000
0
-20,000
-40,000
-60,000
Apr-86
Apr-87
Apr-88
Apr-89
Apr-90
Apr-91
Apr-92
Apr-93
Apr-94
Apr-95
Apr-96
Apr-97
Apr-98
Apr-99
Apr-00
Apr-01
Apr-02
Apr-03
Apr-04
Apr-05
Apr-06
Apr-07
Apr-08
Apr-09
Data is year over year change; 2009ytd is the average of January through April.
Source: California Employment Development Department; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
19. Job Losses Starting in Mid 2008
25,000 2006 -
2006 - 19,500
19,500
20,000 2007 -
2007 - 7,200
7,200
15,000 2008 -
2008 - -9,600
-9,600
10,000 2009ytd- -8,150
2009ytd- -8,150
5,000
0
-5,000 Y-T-Y PERCENT CHANGE
-10,000
-15,000
-20,000
-25,000
-30,000
-35,000
-40,000
-45,000
-50,000
May-06
May-07
May-08
Jan-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Data is year over year change; 2009ytd is the average of January through April.
Source: California Employment Development Department; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
20. Job Gain/Loss Comparison
March 2009 vs. March 2008
4.00%
3.00%
2.00%
1.00% 0.40%
0.00%
-1.00% -0.60%
-1.30%
-2.00%
-3.00% -2.60%
-3.40% -3.50%
-4.00% -3.70%
-3.90% -3.90% -4.00%
-4.20%
-5.00% -4.80% -4.80%
-5.10% -5.20%
-6.00%
-7.00% -6.60%
-7.10%
-8.00%
es
re
nd
x
go
ity
to
tin
s
se
s
y
on
d
r
on
tle
ve
nt
ni
ga
la
an
pi
en
el
Jo
C
la
ie
us
at
cs
st
al
oe
ou
en
Em
Ve
ng
rtl
ak
D
am
ke
ou
Se
D
A
Tu
n
Ph
C
D
Po
A
n
/O
Sa
s
La
H
nd
cr
Sa
e
La
s
SF
ng
Sa
Lo
lt
la
Sa
ra
In
O
Source: BLS; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
21. Unemployment Level
United States vs. San Diego
10.0
9.0 United States
United States 8.9%
8.9%
8.0 San Diego
San Diego 9.3%
9.3%
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Dec-90
Dec-91
Dec-92
Dec-93
Dec-94
Dec-95
Dec-96
Dec-97
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
United States San Diego
Note: US data as of Apr 2009 and San Diego as of Mar 2009
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
22. San Diego’s Residential Permits are at the
Lowest Level Since the 1940s
2004
2004 15,587
15,587
50,000 Long-term average - 17,000/yr 2005
2005 14,306
14,306 -8%
-8%
45,000 2006
2006 9,194
9,194 -36%
-36%
Building Permits
40,000 2007
2007 7,461
7,461 -19%
-19%
2008
2008 5,242
5,242 -30%
-30%
35,000 2009P
2009P 3,000
3,000 -43%
-43%
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
Note: 2009 is a projection using data through April
Source: SOCDS; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
23. San Diego Residential Permits: 2005-2009ytd
2,500
2,250 2009ytd
2009ytd
2,000
Attached
Attached 554
554
Detached
Detached 501
501
1,750
1,500
1,250
1,000
750
500
250
0
May
May
May
May
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Nov
Nov
Nov
Nov
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jul
Jul
Jul
Jul
Attached Detached
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
24. +/-34,000 Homes Sales in ’09: Good/Bad = Bad/Good?
8 year Total Home
70,000 2005
2005 58,953
58,953 -14%
-14% Sales Average
2006
2006 42,253
42,253 -28%
-28% 51,734
60,000 2007
2007 32,872
32,872 -23%
-23%
2008
2008 33,113
33,113 1%
1%
50,000 2009P
2009P 33,900
33,900 2%
2%
40,000
8 year New Home
Sales Average
30,000 9,873
20,000
10,000
0
2009P
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
New Existing
2009P-Dataquick (resales) annualized data through April; Hanley Wood (new) annualized data through March.
Source: Dataquick; Hanley Wood; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
25. San Diego County New Home Sales
2009P = ±2,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2009
Detached Attached
2009P annualized using data from January through March.
Source: Hanley Wood; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
26. Case-Shiller: Prices Down 42% Since 2005
300
250 March 2009
San Diego 144.56
200 Composite of 10 151.41
150
100
50
0
Jan-87
Jan-88
Jan-89
Jan-90
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
San Diego Composite of 10
Composite of 10 includes Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego,
San Francisco, Washington DC
Source: S&P/Case-Shiller; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
28. Affordability Back to Late 1990s Level
70 1st Qtr 2009 = 58.8
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1Q97
3Q97
1Q98
3Q98
1Q99
3Q99
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
Note: 2Q02 through 3Q03 data not available
Source: NAHB Housing Opportunity Index, released May 18, 2009; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
29. Number of Active Home Projects is Declining
San Diego: - 44% from Nov 2006
Active Projects March 2009
March 2009
348 in Nov 06 Active Projects –– 194
Active Projects 194
400 194 in Mar 09 Total Sales - - 150
Total Sales 150
2,000
350 1,750
Active Projects
300 1,500
Total Sales
250 1,250
200 1,000
150 750
100 500
50 250
0 0
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Active Projects Sales
Source: Hanley Wood; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
30. New Detached Inventory is Generally Low
March 2009
600 12
Standing/Under Construction Inventory
500 10
Months of Inventory
400 8
300 6
200 4
100 2
0 0
San Diego Central Coastal East Inland South Bay
County North North
Standing/Under Construction Inventory Months of Inventory
Source: Hanley Wood; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
31. Most New Attached Inventory in Central Submarket
March 2009
2,000 40
Standing/Under Construction Inventory
Months of Inventory
1,500 85% of Attached Inventory 30
in Central Submarket
1,000 20
500 10
0 0
San Diego Central Coastal East Inland South Bay
County North North
Standing/Under Construction Inventory Months of Inventory
Source: Hanley Wood; Sullivan Group Real Estate Advisors
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
38. Foreclosures at Record Level of Transactions
(April 2009 = 9.2%)
25,000 Data reflects new state
25%
requirement which requires
20,000 lenders to contact homeowners 20%
Trustee Deeds as % of All Deeds
30 days prior to filing.
15,000 15%
10,000 10%
5,000 5%
0 0%
Jan-91
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
All Deeds Notices of Default Trustee's Deed TD % of all Deeds
Source: InnoVest Resource Mgmt; Sullivan Group
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com
40. Prospects for a Housing
Market Bottom in 2009?
For: ULI San Diego Young Leaders
June 2, 2009
SULLIVAN GROUP REAL ESTATE ADVISORS
Peter Dennehy, Sr. Vice President
(858) 523-1443 x118
p.dennehy@sgrea.com
Phone 858.523.1443 www.sullivangroupadvisors.com