Résultats prévisionnels de la campagne agropastorale 2021-22 au Sahel et en Afrique de l'Ouest et situation des marchés ouest-africains, présentation par SY Martial Traoré.

1. December 2021
37th ANNUAL MEETING
2021/2022 season
provisional figures and the
regional market situation
by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS

2. Plan
• Background
• Reminder about the progress of 2021/2022 cropping
season
• 2021/2022 provisional cereal production figures
• Provisional cereal food balance for 2021/2022
• 2021/2022 roots and tubers production figures
• 2021/2022 cash crops production figures
• Pastoral situation
• Regional nutrition situation
• Regional market situation
• Recommendations

3. Background
• Joint CILSS/FAO/FEWSNET/WFP and Governments preharvest
assessments have been conducted in 17 countries from October to
November 2021
• The production figures for all the countries and all the main crops have
been presented and validated during the regional PREGEC meeting 24-26
November 2021 at Banjul in Gambia ;
• Representing from all countries have taken part of the regional PREGEC
meeting ;
• 9 Countries have really conducted crop assessment by sample survey :
Benin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Togo, Senegal, Chad;
• 7 Countries have made an estimation based on season monitoring and
historical data : Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Bissau Guinea, Guinea; Ghana;
Mauritania, Sierra Leone
• Forage balance sheet : Burkina, Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Senegal, ! Chad
• Weaknesses : Food balance sheets;

4. Estimated yield anomalies for maize (90 days) at 15
October
Rainfall anomaly estimated by satellite RFE 2021/Average
2009-2020
Progress of 2021/2022 cropping season
In 2021, planting of the main rainfed
crops was effective at the end of July, but
under erratic rainfall conditions,
particularly in the Sahel and parts of the
Gulf of Guinea countries,
The agricultural season started relatively
earlier in the western Sahel, except for
some localities in the coastal part of
Guinea and Sierra Leone,
Rainfed cereal yields are predominantly
average to below the average values of
recent years, mainly in the Sahel;

5. Progress of 2021/2022 cropping season
Hydrological situation :
Flows globally:
Average level : B Senegal, Niger and
higher than normal : B. Middle Niger
(at Niamey),
But globally lower compare to 2020.
Water levels in dams: Average to
slightly deficient
Phytosanitary Situation
• Desert locust: favourable conditions but low initial numbers.
• Fall armyworm. Low to moderate infestations this year.
Other pests :
• Localised grasshopper outbreaks (NE, SN, ML, CV, BF)
• Attacks by granivorous birds (SN, MAU, NE, TD, NGA, BF)
• Attacks by millet leafminer (NE)

6. 2021/2022 provisional cereal production
figures
73 360 583 tonnes
-1,8% vs 2021 3,1% vs M5ANS
72 025 739
Hypothèses basses
79 201 820
Hypothèses Hautes
Les hypothèses du PREGEC de Septembre

7. 2021/2022 Provisional cereal production
figures
Situation per cereal
Crops 2021/2022 Var20/21 VarMoy5A
Maize 28 425 916 6,5% 14,7%
Rice 21 357 754 1,0% 3,8%
Sorghum 13 871 622 -9,0% -4,8%
Millet 8 762 676 -18,3% -15,8%
Fonio/Acha 778 738 4,7% 12,5%
Wheat-Barley 82 915 -25,9% -88,0%
Total 73 360 583 -1,8% 3,2%

8. 2021/2022 provisional cereal production
figures
Production figure per country
country 2021-2022 Var20/21 VarMoy5A
Prev Nov
Burkina Faso 4 709 489 -9,1% -2%
Cap Vert 222 -74%
Gambie 98 544 -8,5% -18%
Guinée Bissau 279 921 8,7% 21%
Mali 9 683 112 -6,5% -1%
Mauritanie 339 176 -16,2% -9%
Niger 3 568 031 -36,1% -38%
Sénégal 3 535 753 -2,9% 27%
Tchad 2 701 376 -6,3% -6%
SAHEL 24 915 624 -12% -7%

9. 2021/2022 provisional cereal production
figures
Production figure per country
Pays 2021-2022 Var20/21 VarMoy5A
Prev Nov
Bénin 2 240 257 2,8% 8,0%
Côte d'Ivoire 2 855 999 1,4% -8,8%
Guinée 4 869 446 4,3% 19,0%
Ghana 5 309 115 15,7% 43,9%
Liberia 255 588 -5,3% 22,3%
Nigeria 29 877 920 2,3% 4,7%
Sierra Leone 1 652 613 40,2% 26,4%
Togo 1 384 021 2% 4%
Pays Côtiers 48 444 959 4,7% 9%

10. 2021/2022 provisional cereal production
figures
Production figure per zone
Zones 2021-2022 Var20/21 VarMoy5A
Prev Nov
TOTAL 73 360 583 -1,8% 3,2%
Zone UEMOA 28 256 583
-10% -6%
Zone CEDEAO 70 320 031 -2% 4%
CILSS 36 265 347 -8% -3%
Bassin est 38 387 584 -4% -2%
Bassin centre 23 941 736 -1% 5%
Bassin ouest 11 031 263 5% 21%

11. 20212022 Provisional cereal production
figures
Cereal
production
per head
(kg)
Pays 2021/2022
Var vs
2020
Var 5ans
Burkina Faso 217 -5% -7%
Cap Vert -
Gambie 43 -13% -45%
Guinée Bissau 131 7% 16%
Mali 453 -10% -2%
Mauritanie 81 -28% -48%
Niger 194 -19% -13%
Sénégal 205 0% 33%
Tchad 168 -2% -7%
SAHEL 236 -9% -6%
Bénin 177 3% 9%
Côte d'Ivoire 107 -2% -17%
Guinée 370 15% 13%
Ghana 148 3% 22%
Liberia 49 -5% -49%
Nigeria 141 1% 10%
Sierra Leone 207 51% 39%
Togo 174 0% -4%
Pays Côtiers 150 4% 2%
TOTAL 173 -1% -1%

12. Regional Provisional Cereal balance
Sheet (2021/2022)
Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat
(Mil, sorgho, maïs,
fonio), others cereals
Total
0 436 767 357
Population au 30/04/2022
1. Disponibilités/Availability 15 553 647 1 110 921 50 452 804 67 117 373
Production brute 2021/2022 21 357 754 82 915 51 919 914 73 360 583
Production disponible 13 656 563 69 377 43 183 385 56 909 325
Stocks initiaux (au 01/11/2021) 2 416 427 906 029 7 269 420 10 591 876
-Socks paysans 795 867 491 000 5 010 001 6 296 868
-Autres stocks 1 440 380 550 544 1 973 230 3 964 154
0 -
2. Beoins -Needs 19 980 881 8 364 983 44 594 712 72 940 576
Normes de consommation (kg/hbt/an) 46 19 102 167
Consommation humaine 17 613 002 7 531 796 37 084 691 62 229 489
Stocks finaux (au 31/10/2022) 2 367 879 833 187 7 510 021 10 711 087
-Socks paysans 1 937 774 727 838 6 752 743 9 418 355
-Autres stocks 530 105 110 349 758 278 1 398 732
3. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) brut 4 427 233
- 7 254 063
- 5 858 092 5 823 203
-
0
4. Solde import/export 10 289 669 8 207 471 90 261 18 587 401
Importations commerciales (2021/2022) 10 350 740 8 621 471 1 098 407 20 070 618
+ Commerçants privés 8 922 684 8 230 935 1 054 900 18 208 519
+ Autres importations 1 428 056 390 536 43 507 1 862 099
Aides alimentaires - - - -
Exportations prévues 61 071 414 000 1 008 146 1 483 217
5. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) net 5 862 436 953 408 5 948 353 12 764 197
0
6. Disponibilité apparente/HBT(kg) 59 21 116 196
+2%

13. Regional Cereal balance Sheet
(deficit)
Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat
(Mil, sorgho, maïs,
fonio), others cereals
Total
Burkina Faso 119 858 26 377 (70 318) 75 917
Cap Vert 3 204 (7 412) (46 672) (50 880)
Gambie 62 291 36 653 (196 810) (97 866)
Guinée Bissau (21 289) (14 450) (19 976) (55 715)
Mali (245) 21 394 3 340 859 3 362 008
Mauritanie (1 653) 300 353 (82 144) 216 557
Niger 420 367 (113 278) (900 832) (593 743)
Sénégal 203 046 202 993 1 049 725 1 455 763
Tchad 154 291 (126 838) (318 797) (291 343)
SAHEL 939 870 325 792 2 755 034 4 020 696
Bénin 355 746 (8 490) 281 994 629 250
Côte d'Ivoire 931 134 295 207 408 272 1 634 614
Guinée 969 157 232 233 48 422 1 249 812
Ghana 546 021 228 040 861 133 1 635 193
Liberia 173 250 (74 400) 2 000 100 850
Nigeria 1 133 143 (104 937) 2 006 010 3 034 216
Sierra Leone 538 052 8 971 (398 798) 148 225
Togo 276 063 50 992 (15 713) 311 342
Pays Côtiers 4 922 566 627 616 3 193 319 8 743 501
TOTAL 5 862 436 953 408 5 948 353 12 764 197
+ 12,7
millions de tonnes
Vs
+20millions en
2020/2021
(4500 000)
(4000 000)
(3500 000)
(3000 000)
(2500 000)
(2000 000)
(1500 000)
(1000 000)
(500 000)
-
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deficit. Bruts (T)
-9,5 M
Tonnes

14. Roots and Tubers production provisional
figure (2021/2022)
Production per crop
Crop Production Var2020/2021 VarMoy5A
Cassava 104 549 571 6,1% 11,1%
Yam 79 939 597 4,5% 10,1%
S Ptato 5 974 840 -0,7% 6,6%
Patoto 2 183 745 5,7% 13,1%
Taro/Cocoyam 10 325 763 0,3% 9,0%
Total 202 973 516 4,9% 10,5%

15. Leguminous and oil seeds provisional
production figure (2021/202)
Production per crop
Crop Production Var2020/2021 VarMoy5A
G/Nut 10 706 234 -0,1% 10,8%
Cotton 3 288 312 26,9% 17,9%
Cowpea 7 756 832 -8,5% -3,0%
Sesame 1 189 983 -10,9% 5,8%
Sojabean 1 865 759 2,2% 25,1%
peanut 183 740 -22,5% -2,7%
Total 25 364 067 0,7% 9,1%

16. Other productions
Crops Production Var2020/2021 VarMoy5A
Cacao 3 966 050 12,5% 18,4%
Coffee 304 169 -8,6% 9,1%
rubber 1 273 621 4,2% 35,9%
Casheu nut 1 475 163 -8,2% 5,3%
Palm oil 6 943 188 28,3% -11,7%
Plantain 14 534 701 5,8% 29,2%

17. Pastoral situation
The situation is good in the
pastoral areas of Burkina, in the
western half of Niger and in
the far east of Chad;
It is fairly good in places in
Senegal and Mali, with green
fodder and surface water for
livestock watering in this
pastoral part of the Sahelian
front countries.
Biomass production in kg of dry matter per hectare
(Kg.MS/ha) octobre 2021
However, compared to last year the overall
forage production was lower.

18. Pastoral situation
Relative difference (in percentage) of biomass production on
October 2021 compared last 5 years median
Significant forage
deficits mainly in
Mauritania and in some
places in Senegal,
Niger, Mali and Chad.
Special attention:
Availability
Western Sahel (Mauritania,
northern Senegal) Central Sahel
(Central Mali); North and Easth
Niger and North-West Chad
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Accessibility

19. Nutritional situation
Nutritional situation is alarming
The nutrition situation
remains of serious concern in
the Sahel countries, with National GAM
prevalences close or above the 10%
(High) thresholds defined by WHO.
Strong disparities exist at
disaggregated level, with many
regions having GAM and/or SAM
prevalences exceeding the very high
GAM threshold (15%) & Emergency
threshold SAM (2%).
Acute malnutrition spreads
to urban areas, this is the case in
Burkina Faso (Kadiogo province) and
Sierra Leone although the reasons are
yet to be documented
Oct-Nov 2021

20. Nutritional situation
Conflict & insecurity are major
threats to the nutritional status
of population, leading to
population displacement,
limiting access to social basic
services, restricting
humanitarian access, while
disrupting overall systems and
institutions, including high food
prices.
Many known factors continue to
impact the nutritional situation
of population in the Sahel: High
incidence of childhood illnesses,
Poor quality of food intake and
poor hygiene & sanitation
4 out of 5
households
do not have access
to a NUTRITIOUS

21. Regional markets situation
Decrease in Production level (harver period, reduction of the production vs last sea
3%)
High level of food price in 2021.
Persistence of inflation in many countries in the region (SL, LI
GH, GN, GB)
Persistence of civil insecurity in several pa
the regional
IDP in many countries in the région (> 6M)
Outbreak of covid-19, Fret cost
Drop in cross broder flows (restriction of many countri

22. Regional markets situation
Supply and demand
Eastern Basin:
Decrease in production:
Niger, Tchad;
Perturbation of market :
Lac Tchad, Liptako Go.
zone;
Inflation in Nigeria
Price rising
Demand is very high
Central Basin:
Production to slight
decrease :Burkina,
Mali
Perturbation of market :
High number PDI
Inflation in Ghana
Price rising
Demand is very high
from other Basins
Central Basin:
Production to sligt
decrease :
Good level of stock
(imported):
Inflation in SL, LI, GN
Price rising: SL, LI, GN
Cost of importation
Demand is moderated
(International market)

23. Great Lake Chad
Tibesti
North and NC Nigeria
Liptako-G.
North&NC Cameroon
Regional insecurity

24. Regional market situation
Cereal price
Number of market monitors
30 : 36%
Maize
21 : 26%
Millet
19 : 24%
Sorghum
13 : 18%
Rice local
13 : 19%
Rice imp.
7 : 10%
Wheat
314 314 309 249 341 103
Overall increase in cereal prices (23 : 27%),
slightly increase vs September 21

25. WEST AFRICA _ SAHEL CEREAL PRICES TRENDS
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
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CHANGES IN CEREAL PRICES IN WEST AFRICA SAHEL
VS 5 YEARS AVERAGE AND AGREATED (FOOD STANTARDS AND POPULATION)
West Sah Western basin Eastern basin Central basin
Western Basin
Régional
Eastern Basin
Central Basin
41%
34%
28%
12%

26. Regional market situation

27. Regional market situation
Roots, Tubers and plantain prices variations (vs last 5yrs
averages)
13%
-13%
38%
11% 10%
5%
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Yam Cassava Gari S Potato Potato
Irish
Plantain
Prices Changes Markets

28. Regional market situation
Livestock prices variations(vs 5-year average)
0%
17%
9%
49%
3%
41%
5%
6%
16%
58%
35%
65%
5%
31%
10%
38%
20%
13.50%
34%
14% 13%
10%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Benin Burkina Mali Mauritanie Guinée Niger Senegal Tchad
Cattle Sheep Goat Camel

29. Recommendations
To Countries:
• Take appropriate actions to improve household access to staple
foods.
• Accelerate the establishment of effective coordination and
monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for responses;
• Investing in the preparation of joint market and food security
assessment missions with an emphasis on the functioning of
secondary markets.
• Facilitate crossbroder flows;
• Expand early detection and treatment services for acute
malnutrition by strengthening health services and energizing
existing community platforms.
• Immediately scale up interventions to protect optimal infant and
young child feeding practices, ensuring access to nutritious, safe
and affordable food and a diversity of foods.

30. Recommendations
To CILSS and partners:
 Contribute to the financing of humanitarian assistance programs for
populations requiring immediate assistance
 Prepare Food security and market assessment join mission in February 2021.
 Work to reduce considerably the number of harassment (road shows)
 Advocate for the official opening of borders between countries in the region
 Strengthen strategic orientations, policies & partnerships on food systems by
improving access to food adapted to needs of most vulnerable (children,
adolescents, & PLWs) and by Supporting local solutions to improve access to
nutritious diet
 Maintain the supply of nutritious and safe school meals by reaching vulnerable
children and adolescents through innovative methods and enhance better
coordination of sectoral and multisectoral interventions

31. Many thanks for your attention!