A benefits management framework for prioritising programmes webinar
Monday 17 February 2020
presented by:
Dr Hugo Minney
The link to the write up page and resources of this webinar:
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/a-benefits-management-framework-for-prioritising-programmes-webinar/
This supports the APM publication “A guide to using a benefits management framework” and takes participants through the implementation process
https://www.apm.org.uk/book-shop/a-guide-to-using-a-benefits-management-framework/
Artifacts and Symbols of everyday life from KeralaAnand Nair
A random collection of pictures taken around Central Kerala (Kottayam, Pathanamthitta) documenting the leftovers of a bygone era. This project was done during the summer of 2003-04 as a student project.
The people are asking hard questions; unemployment is rising, lives and property are not safe, the roads are bad and getting worse, the standard of living is falling but the politicians have ran out of lies. What is going to happen?
CAG is happy to present the Cartoon book "Do you know?"!! The book aims to demystify and educate communities and general public on the administrative and environmental regulations and laws on the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Process, with specific reference to Thermal Power Plants (TPPs). The people can learn while they read the comics with their family!
A benefits management framework for prioritising programmes webinar
Monday 17 February 2020
presented by:
Dr Hugo Minney
The link to the write up page and resources of this webinar:
https://www.apm.org.uk/news/a-benefits-management-framework-for-prioritising-programmes-webinar/
This supports the APM publication “A guide to using a benefits management framework” and takes participants through the implementation process
https://www.apm.org.uk/book-shop/a-guide-to-using-a-benefits-management-framework/
Artifacts and Symbols of everyday life from KeralaAnand Nair
A random collection of pictures taken around Central Kerala (Kottayam, Pathanamthitta) documenting the leftovers of a bygone era. This project was done during the summer of 2003-04 as a student project.
The people are asking hard questions; unemployment is rising, lives and property are not safe, the roads are bad and getting worse, the standard of living is falling but the politicians have ran out of lies. What is going to happen?
CAG is happy to present the Cartoon book "Do you know?"!! The book aims to demystify and educate communities and general public on the administrative and environmental regulations and laws on the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Process, with specific reference to Thermal Power Plants (TPPs). The people can learn while they read the comics with their family!
The ideology behind the hydrological modelling I do. It is a revisiting of part of a talk I gave at CUAHSI biennial meeting in Boulder (CO) on July 2008. It promotes the modeling-by-components paradigm
Grado 2016-05-19 - Hazard and Hydorlogical ModellingRiccardo Rigon
Here I talk of my thought and experience in modelling hazards. Hopefully I convince someones that my tools are structurally better than other. Including some classic.
Parma 2016-05-17 - JGrass-NewAGE - Some About The State of ArtRiccardo Rigon
This describes the motivation behind the JGrass-NewAGE infrastructure. It also shows the main components that were implemented. Finally it shows and comments some case studies and some use cases
This describes the research efforts made on the river Adige in CLIMAWARE and GLOBAQUA projects by the Hydrology group of University of Trento. This is the Italian version.
This is the summary of what Francesco Serafin did in its first year of doctoral studies, defending for his admission to his second year Ph.D. Undoubtedly he did a lot of work and he program to di even more. Three are the lines of his research: implementing a new flexible structure based on graphs for commanding simulations of interacting systems; implementing a domain specific language for doing environmental models (and particularly to solve ordinary and partial differential equations); deplying a system that makes easier to do replicable science.
Return period from a stochastic point of viewRiccardo Rigon
Volpi and coworkers discussed the idea of return period. Her statement is that independence is not a requirement for obtaining the classical equation of return period.
This is inscribed in the old story of stochastic processes used as representation of phenomena that appear highly variable. The field needs some refreshment after the discovery of climate change. Volpi's et al. Has the merit to bring in some novelty. I was intrigued by the separation and relation between return period and waiting time.
This is a revision of the previous post on the same topic. There I tried to develop my own algebra of symbols to represent coarse grained (spatially integrated) hydrological system. Later on I understood that Petri networks were already there and useful to obtain the same result. The graphs obtained in such a way where, besides, studied in several places, and many contributes of literature convergent from other disciplines, can be used for hydrological scopes.
The idea is to build an algebra of object to represent (water) budgets giving a clear idea of the type of interactions that the budget is subject to.
Any symbol should correspond to a mathematical term or a group of mathematical terms. The number and the collocation of parameters of the models should be clear.
GEOtop 2.0 - The snow and freezing soil modellingRiccardo Rigon
This is the second talk given at AGU Fall Meeting 2013. It complements the first talk by presenting something of the new snow modelling, and freezing soil algorithms
Young and old forest impacts on the hydrological cycleRiccardo Rigon
Manoli uses a simplified ABL theory to study the effects of vegetation on precipitations, and, in particular he sorted out the effects of vegetation ages. Some about the theory of ABL came from the good old John Albertson work but the novelty here is that eco-hydrology enters in the merit of phenology-plants evolution. Conditions in which conclusions are drawn are pretty uniform (probably Durham forest can be considered a nice approximation of it), and this call for a treatment made with a process-based model
Workforce Needs of the California Solar IndustryJoel West
An April 19, 2011 webinar hosted by SolarTech, featuring SJSU faculty Meg Virick and Joel West; reported results from the first employer survey of the SJSU Solar Workforce Project
Students from Carlow Institute of Technology were given the challenge of one week to re-design the packaging for Rory's Story Cubes®. The remit was to build on the original design, add value to the game and to its point of sale presence, while retaining the portability of the original. Here's what they delivered.
Social Innovation & New Media: 1. Class IntroductionNam-ho Park
서울대학교 연합전공 정보문화학교 2010 봄학기 "창의연구실습" 강의의 주제는 "Social Innovation & New Media"이다.
이 수업에서는 뉴미디어와 소셜미디어가 제공하는 사회혁신의 기회를 4개의 파트너의 비영리 단체화 구체적으로 고민하고 서비스를 직접 기획해보는 것에 목적을 두고 있다.
This is a short introduction to understand just a little how hydrological models and some hydraulics works. Much relies on the oral presentation. Unfortunately this is is Italian
A short introduction to some hydrological extreme phenomenaRiccardo Rigon
For high School teachers. Kept at MUSE on October 20th 2017. It covers the typology of some phenomena giving a little of explanation of the diverse dynamics. Is a product of LIFE FRANCA EU project
This is the presentation given for the admission to his second year of Ph.D. studies by Michele Bottazzi. Besides sumamrizing the work done during the first year, Michele traces his pathways into the second year with an abrupt change of direction towards simulating and discussion transpiration from plants.
This is the presentation for his admission to the third year of his Ph.D.. It talks about the several direction his work had taken and look forward to the conclusion of some task in form of code release and published papers.
This contains a summary of the data available for torrente Meledrio. We are using it for the project SteepsStreams, and we want to estimate its water and sediment budgets.
This contains the talk given at the 2017 meeting of the SteepStream ERANET project. It is assumed to talk about the hydrological cycle of the Noce river in Val di Sole valley (Trentino, Italy). It is a preliminary view of what we are going to do in the project.
This contains some hints and discussions about how to implement Grids in a Object Oriented language. Specifically the discussion is made with Java in mind, but obviosly, not limited to it.
How to implement unstructured grids in Java (or BTW in another OO language). First start from understanding what grids are and how they are described in algebraic topology. Mathematics first, can be a good idea. No explicit implementation here, but concept and literature to study and start from..
This is the outstanding lecture given by Dani Or when receiving his Dalton Prize at 2017 Wien EGU General Assembly. It is a must-read for who deals with ET and good material also for teaching to students.
Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Regions of Complex To...Riccardo Rigon
The title describes it all. Jeremy Pal's student Brianna Pagàn and coworkers put an impressive set of tools to estimate the impacts of land use and climate change on water resources of south California.
This is the English translation, with some relevant corrections, of the talk I gave at University of Calabria, about the contemporary and post-contemporary flood forecasting.
Hydrological Extremes and Human societies Riccardo Rigon
This is the talk given by Giuliano di Baldassarre at the Summer School on Hydrological Modeling kept in Cagliari this here. The topic is very up-to-date and important. He presented an analysis of a few case studies and suggested some literature.
The Science of Water Transport and Floods from Theory to Relevant Application...Riccardo Rigon
This is the presentation given by Ricardo Mantilla at University of Iowa in 2017. It talks about the system implemented in Iowa for flood forecasting in real time
These are the slides presented at EGU 2017 General Meeting, the Pico session was entlited: Monitoring and modelling flow paths, supply and quality in a changing mountain cryosphere
Accelerate your Kubernetes clusters with Varnish CachingThijs Feryn
A presentation about the usage and availability of Varnish on Kubernetes. This talk explores the capabilities of Varnish caching and shows how to use the Varnish Helm chart to deploy it to Kubernetes.
This presentation was delivered at K8SUG Singapore. See https://feryn.eu/presentations/accelerate-your-kubernetes-clusters-with-varnish-caching-k8sug-singapore-28-2024 for more details.
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
GDG Cloud Southlake #33: Boule & Rebala: Effective AppSec in SDLC using Deplo...James Anderson
Effective Application Security in Software Delivery lifecycle using Deployment Firewall and DBOM
The modern software delivery process (or the CI/CD process) includes many tools, distributed teams, open-source code, and cloud platforms. Constant focus on speed to release software to market, along with the traditional slow and manual security checks has caused gaps in continuous security as an important piece in the software supply chain. Today organizations feel more susceptible to external and internal cyber threats due to the vast attack surface in their applications supply chain and the lack of end-to-end governance and risk management.
The software team must secure its software delivery process to avoid vulnerability and security breaches. This needs to be achieved with existing tool chains and without extensive rework of the delivery processes. This talk will present strategies and techniques for providing visibility into the true risk of the existing vulnerabilities, preventing the introduction of security issues in the software, resolving vulnerabilities in production environments quickly, and capturing the deployment bill of materials (DBOM).
Speakers:
Bob Boule
Robert Boule is a technology enthusiast with PASSION for technology and making things work along with a knack for helping others understand how things work. He comes with around 20 years of solution engineering experience in application security, software continuous delivery, and SaaS platforms. He is known for his dynamic presentations in CI/CD and application security integrated in software delivery lifecycle.
Gopinath Rebala
Gopinath Rebala is the CTO of OpsMx, where he has overall responsibility for the machine learning and data processing architectures for Secure Software Delivery. Gopi also has a strong connection with our customers, leading design and architecture for strategic implementations. Gopi is a frequent speaker and well-known leader in continuous delivery and integrating security into software delivery.
Securing your Kubernetes cluster_ a step-by-step guide to success !KatiaHIMEUR1
Today, after several years of existence, an extremely active community and an ultra-dynamic ecosystem, Kubernetes has established itself as the de facto standard in container orchestration. Thanks to a wide range of managed services, it has never been so easy to set up a ready-to-use Kubernetes cluster.
However, this ease of use means that the subject of security in Kubernetes is often left for later, or even neglected. This exposes companies to significant risks.
In this talk, I'll show you step-by-step how to secure your Kubernetes cluster for greater peace of mind and reliability.
The Art of the Pitch: WordPress Relationships and SalesLaura Byrne
Clients don’t know what they don’t know. What web solutions are right for them? How does WordPress come into the picture? How do you make sure you understand scope and timeline? What do you do if sometime changes?
All these questions and more will be explored as we talk about matching clients’ needs with what your agency offers without pulling teeth or pulling your hair out. Practical tips, and strategies for successful relationship building that leads to closing the deal.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
Neuro-symbolic is not enough, we need neuro-*semantic*Frank van Harmelen
Neuro-symbolic (NeSy) AI is on the rise. However, simply machine learning on just any symbolic structure is not sufficient to really harvest the gains of NeSy. These will only be gained when the symbolic structures have an actual semantics. I give an operational definition of semantics as “predictable inference”.
All of this illustrated with link prediction over knowledge graphs, but the argument is general.
Elevating Tactical DDD Patterns Through Object CalisthenicsDorra BARTAGUIZ
After immersing yourself in the blue book and its red counterpart, attending DDD-focused conferences, and applying tactical patterns, you're left with a crucial question: How do I ensure my design is effective? Tactical patterns within Domain-Driven Design (DDD) serve as guiding principles for creating clear and manageable domain models. However, achieving success with these patterns requires additional guidance. Interestingly, we've observed that a set of constraints initially designed for training purposes remarkably aligns with effective pattern implementation, offering a more ‘mechanical’ approach. Let's explore together how Object Calisthenics can elevate the design of your tactical DDD patterns, offering concrete help for those venturing into DDD for the first time!
3. Introduction
Every Hydrologist would like to have
THE MODEL of IT
But in reality everybody wants just to investigate a limited set of
phenomena: for instance the discharge in a river. Or landsliding , or
soil moisture distribution.
Any problems requires its amount of prior information to
be solved: some problems needs more detailed information of others
3
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4. Introduction
So we use different models
4
Rigon et al., Montpellier, October 21, 2011
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5. Introduction
So we use different models
GEOtop
Fully distributed
Grid based
4
Rigon et al., Montpellier, October 21, 2011
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6. Introduction
So we use different models
GEOtop NewAge
Anthropic Infrastructures
Fully distributed
Large scale modelling
Hillslope - Stream
Grid based
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7. Introduction
Monday, October 24, 11
Fully distributed
Grid based GEOtop
Large scale modelling
Hillslope - Stream
Anthropic Infrastructures
Rigon et al., Montpellier, October 21, 2011
NewAge
Fully Coupled
Subsurface- Surface
Grid Based
Boussinesq
So we use different models
4
8. Introduction
Monday, October 24, 11
Fully distributed
Grid based GEOtop
Large scale modelling
Hillslope - Stream
Anthropic Infrastructures
Rigon et al., Montpellier, October 21, 2011
NewAge
Fully Coupled
Subsurface- Surface
Grid Based
Boussinesq
So we use different models
GIUH
Peak floods
PeakFlow
4
9. Introduction
So we use different models
GEOtop NewAge Boussinesq PeakFlow
Anthropic Infrastructures
Subsurface- Surface
Fully distributed
Peak floods
Large scale modelling
Fully Coupled
Hillslope - Stream
Grid based
GIUH
Grid Based
The complexity arrow 4
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10. Introduction
Every one of them:
Perform the mass budget (and preserves mass)
Make hypotheses on momentum variations
Simplify the energy conservation (and its dissipation)
to a certain degree
(Implicitly delineates a way to entropy increase)
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11. Questions
A first question:
• How can we manage the set of activities behind all of this modeling ?
(-;
doing the models using sound science,
modern informatics,
validating them against data,
assessing their uncertainty
;-)
•Without reinventing the wheel any time
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12. GEOtop
GEOtop
(Rigon et al., Jour. Hydromet., 2006)
This model focuses on the water and energy budgets at few
square meters scale with the goal of describing catchment
hydrology including (a reasonable parameterization) all
known processes. (Whatever this means)
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13. Remarks
We are aware that:
“ You cannot deny that our universe is not a
chaos; we discern in it beings, things, stuff that we
name with words. These beings or things are
forms, structures endowed with a certain
stability; they fill a certain portion of space and
perdure for a certain time ...”
R. Thom, Structural stabity and morphogenesys,1975
And therefore a fully reductionist approach is stupid. However
facing with the fundamental law teaches us many thing about the
reduction of complexity with scales that naive intuition or
pedestrian simplification does not allow.
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14. GEOtop structure
1. Radiation
- distributed model
- sky view factor, self and cast
shadowing, slope, aspect, drainage
2. Water balance 6. vegetation
interaction
- effective rainfall
- surface flow (runoff and channel - multi-layer vegetation
routing) scheme
- evapotranspiration
3. Snow-glaciers
- multilayer snow
scheme 5. soil energy balance
- soil
4. surface energy balance temperature
- freezing soil
- radiation
- boundary-layer interaction
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15. GEOtop structure
Why this complexity ?
snow, ice, permafrost
water cycle in
complex terrain Endrizzi 2007
Dall’Amico 2010
Rigon et al., 2006 Endrizzi et al,
2010a,b in
preparation
evapo-transpiration,
landsliding
energy fluxes
Bertoldi et al., 2006 Simoni et al 2008
Bertoldi et al 2010 Lanni et al, 2010
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16. GEOtop structure
GEOtop, NewAge For each time step
Boussinesq
Al the models the
same strategy but
with different Meteo
amount of
information flowing
Rainfall/Snow Radiation Atm. Turbulence
Snow/Energy budget
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17. GEOtop structure
GEOtop
Richards ++
Surface flows
Channel flow
Next time step
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18. GEOtop structure
What I mean with Richards ++
First, I would say, it means that it would be better to call it, for
instance: Richards-Mualem-vanGenuchten equation, since it is:
⇤⇥ ⇥
C(⇥) = ⇥ · K( w ) ⇥ (z + ⇥)
⇤t
⇧ ⇤ ⇥ m ⌅2
K( w ) = Ks Se 1 (1 Se ) 1/m
n
Se = [1 + ( ⇥) )]
m
⇤ w () w r
C(⇥) := Se :=
⇤⇥ ⇥s r
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19. GEOtop structure
What I mean with Richards ++
First, I would say, it means that it would be better to call it, for
instance: Richards-Mualem-vanGenuchten equation, since it is:
⇤⇥ ⇥
C(⇥) = ⇥ · K( w ) ⇥ (z + ⇥) Water balance
⇤t
⇧ ⇤ ⇥ m ⌅2
K( w ) = Ks Se 1 (1 Se ) 1/m
n
Se = [1 + ( ⇥) )]
m
⇤ w () w r
C(⇥) := Se :=
⇤⇥ ⇥s r
13
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20. GEOtop structure
What I mean with Richards ++
First, I would say, it means that it would be better to call it, for
instance: Richards-Mualem-vanGenuchten equation, since it is:
⇤⇥ ⇥
C(⇥) = ⇥ · K( w ) ⇥ (z + ⇥) Water balance
⇤t
⇧ ⇤ ⇥ m ⌅2
Parametric
K( w ) = Ks Se 1 (1 Se ) 1/m
Mualem
n
Se = [1 + ( ⇥) )]
m
⇤ w () w r
C(⇥) := Se :=
⇤⇥ ⇥s r
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Rigon et al., Montpellier, October 21, 2011
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21. GEOtop structure
What I mean with Richards ++
First, I would say, it means that it would be better to call it, for
instance: Richards-Mualem-vanGenuchten equation, since it is:
⇤⇥ ⇥
C(⇥) = ⇥ · K( w ) ⇥ (z + ⇥) Water balance
⇤t
⇧ ⇤ ⇥ m ⌅2
Parametric
K( w ) = Ks Se 1 (1 Se ) 1/m
Mualem
n Parametric
Se = [1 + ( ⇥) )]
m
van Genuchten
⇤ w () w r
C(⇥) := Se :=
⇤⇥ ⇥s r
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22. GEOtop structure
What I mean with Richards ++
Extending Richards to treat the transition from saturated to unsaturated
zone. Which means:
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23. Landsliding
Landsliding
After Lanni et al, 2010 submitted 15
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24. Landsliding
Landsliding
dry case - low intensity precipitation
After Lanni et al, 2010 submitted 16
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25. Landsliding
Landsliding
wet case - high intensity precipitation
After Lanni et al, 2010 submitted 17
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26. Landsliding
Landsliding
The experiments also show that triggering happens
when approximately the same critical weight of
water has been stored in the hillslope, and that the
antecedent soil moisture condition and rainfall
intensity determine the rainfall duration needed to
achieve this critical volume of water.
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27. GEOtop structure
What I mean with Richards ++
Extending Richards to treat the phase transition. Which means essentially to
extend the soil water retention curves to become dependent on temperature.
Freezing
Unsaturated starts
unfrozen
Unsaturated Freezing
Frozen procedes
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28. GEOtop structure
What I mean with Richards ++
Soil water retention curve
+
thermodynamic equilibrium (Clausius Clapeyron)
+
Freezing = drying hypothesis
pw
pressure head: ⇥w =
w g
Unfrozen water content
w (T ) = w [⇥w (T )]
M. Dall’Amico et al., The Cryosphere, 2011 20
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29. GEOtop structure
What I mean with Richards ++
m
Total water = ⇥r + (⇥s ⇥r ) · {1 + [
n
· ⇤w0 ] }
content:
⇤ ⇥n ⌅ m
liquid water ⇥w = ⇥r + (⇥s ⇥r ) · 1 + ⇤w0
Lf
(T T ⇥ ) · H(T T ⇥)
content: g T0
⇥w ⇥
ice content: i = w
⇥i
depressed g T0
T := T0 +
melting Lf
w0
point
M. Dall’Amico et al., The Cryosphere, 2011 21
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30. Freezing = Drying
What I mean with Richards ++
Unsaturated Freezing
unfrozen starts
Unsaturated Freezing
Frozen procedes
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31. Freezing = Drying
What I mean with Richards ++
M. Dall’Amico et al., The Cryosphere, 2011 23
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32. Freezing = Drying
What I mean with Richards ++
M. Dall’Amico et al., The Cryosphere, 2011 24
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33. Freezing = Drying
Tot Water profile: comparison with Hansson et al
0
after 50 hours
●
Sim
−20
●
●
● Meas
−40
●
●
−60
●
●
−80
●
soil depth [mm]
●
●
●
−120
●
●
●
●
−160
●
●
●
●
−200
●
0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55
water content [−]
M. Dall’Amico et al., The Cryosphere, 2011 25
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34. Runoff on Frozen Soil
Obviously this makes it possible to simulate
a lot of new phenomenologies
Endrizzi et Al., JHR, 2010
Sisik, river in the artic tundra 26
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35. Runoff on Frozen Soil
thaw depth: T(z,t)=0 water table depth: ψm(z,t)=0
44
Stefano Endrizzi, William Quinton, Philip Marsh, Matteo Dall’Amico, 2010 in preparation
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36. Runoff on Frozen Soil: main result
Runoff on frozen soil
The model allows to show that the runoff
properties of a basin dramatically change when
soil freeze.
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37. Snow generated runoff
Frozen soil can be combine with the snow module
Arabba
Pordoi
Ornella
Saviner
Caprile Pescul
Malga Ciapela
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38. Snow generated runoff
Frozen soil can be combine with the snow module
30
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39. Snow generated runoff
We have to work more here!
Discharge at Saviner year 2006−2007
14
GEOtop measured
12
10
Discharge [m3/s]
8
6
4
2
0
01/10 01/12 01/02 01/04 01/06 01/08 01/10
Date (dd/mm)
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40. Questions
A second set of questions:
•Is Richards equation true ?
•Is the van Genuchten-Mualem theory true ?
•What actually means “true” ?
•Where is “structure” (beside texture) in soil parametrization ?
•Are there methods for accounting the spatial and temporal
variability of soil hydraulic characteristics ?
•Soil thermodynamics .... what is it ?
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41. Well,
The perfect model does not exist !
Picasso, Dora Maar
Deconstructing models 33
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42. JGrass-NewAGE
JGrass-NewAGE
(Formetta et al., GTD, 2011)
This model focuses on the hydrological budgets of medium
scale to large scale basins as the product of the processes
averaged at the hillslope scale with the interplay of the river
network.
34
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43. The structure of NewAge
JGrass-NewAge
(Formetta et al., GTD, 2011
Hillslope Storage
Dynamics
Surface flows
Aggregation
Channel flow
Next time step
35
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44. The structure of NewAge
JGrass-NewAge
(Formetta et al., GTD, 2011 Calibration tools
Input Data treatment
Goodness of fit
Next time step
36
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45. The structure of NewAge
JGrass-NewAge
(Formetta et al., GTD, 2011 Data assimilation
Input Data treatment
Goodness of fit
Next time step
37
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46. The structure of NewAge
JGrass-NewAge
(Formetta et al., GTD, 2011
Evapotranspiration Hillslope Storage
Dynamics
Radiation Surface flows
Aggregation
Channel flow
Next time step
38
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47. The structure of NewAge
Someone call them Hydrologic Runoff Units
Rinaldo, Geomorphic Flood Research, 2006
we call them hillslope-link partition of the basin 39
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48. The structure of NewAge
For each of the variable of the hydrological cycle
a statistics is made for each hillslope and a single value is returned
Rinaldo, Geomorphic Flood Research, 2006
so, we have 5 values of the prognostics quantities here, that are space
time-averages of what happens inside each hillslope 40
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49. The structure of NewAge
They are estimated
for each hillslope
•mean rainfall
•mean radiation (we exploit some old idea by Ian Moore)
•mean evapotranspiration
•mean snow cover
•mean runoff production
41
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50. The structure of NewAge
When runoff is collected
then is routed, for small basins, with a modification of the Muskingum-Cunge
algorithm, or directly with a semi-implict solver of the de Saint-Venant 1D 42
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51. The structure of NewAge
Thus we have discharges
Rinaldo, Geomorphic Flood Research, 2006
Here, Here ... and here again
43
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52. And the complexity of Richards equations ?
Remind that, in general,
you cannot
assume constant flow velocity through the network
in all conditions of flow. So the simplifications that
brings to the W-GIUH (Rinaldo et al., 1991,1995; Saco
and Kumar, 2002; D’Odorico and Rigon, 2003)
cannot be made.
44
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53. And the complexity of Richards equations ?
Observe,
that I did not mention the complexity implies by the
Richards equation.
WHERE IS IT NOW ?
45
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54. And the complexity of Richards equations ?
IT WAS ASSUMED more than DERIVED*
- that something averages out*
- that the same averages modify the structure of the
equations and the parameters (which could possibly
vary seasonally)
Can we built a statistical theory that rigorously
derives the simplified equations ?
for a derivation of part of it see Cordano and Rigon, 2008
46
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55. The need for a statistical theory
A rigorous statistical theory would be needed that
allows for
•doing rigorously such simplifications*, not just on the basis of the personal Art
of modelling^;
•quantify the uncertainty remained after the simplifications**
*for a derivation of part of it see Cordano and Rigon, 2008 and BTW compare it with the abstract view
Reggiani et al., 1999
^This will be remain, however ...
** The distribution around the mean quantities could not be sharp. Variances can be important ...
47
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56. The need for a statistical theory
However, the more “reductionist” GEOtop
could be used to test the solutions implemented in the simplified NewAGE and
evaluate the non-acceptable behaviors.
Obviously, this is not as simple as
it can be, because GEOtop itself
comes with its simplifications and
errors
48
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57. The structure of NewAge
Assume that now a reservoir
Rinaldo, Geomorphic Flood Research, 2006
is made here
49
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58. The structure of NewAge
Well, you can have the discharges also there
Rinaldo, Geomorphic Flood Research, 2006
once you embeds the characteristics of the reservoirs in the model 50
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59. The structure of NewAge
However
for doing it seamlessly you need to made a topological description of the network
and capture it in a suitable object-oriented-geographic infrastructure.
NewAge DOES it!
details in the upcoming papers and manual
51
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60. Modeling by component
The modeling by component paradigm was adopted
This interface was automatically created from OMS v3 annotations
automagically inside the udig GIS 52
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61. Modeling by component
The modeling by component paradigm was adopted
The Object Modeling System OMS is a modular modeling framework that uses an open source
software approach to enable all members of the scientific community to address collaboratively
the many complex issues associated with the design, development, and application of
distributed hydrological and environmental models.
Products
Development
Tools
OMS
Knowledge
Base
Resources
OMS3 can be found at: http://www.javaforge.com/project/
http://www.javaforge.com/project/oms
53
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62. Questions
Is the mean value for a hillslope enough ?
from the point of view of the prognostic variable it could be. It Depends on what
the observer is looking for and for what.
from the point of view of the input data, inferring the space-time mean could not
be enogh. In fact:
•for evaluating evapotranspiration properly we need for accountng of the
subgrid variability of soil moisture distribution, vegetation and radiation.
•for evaluating the snow pack evolution we need to account, at least, for the
variability of radiation
54
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63. The structure of NewAge
So
Any hillslope is subdivided in
- zone of about the same elevation (elevation classes)
- areas that receives the same amount of radiation (radiation classes)
- soil cover classes
An this subgrid variability is used to estimated the
mean values for each hillslope.
55
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64. Questions
A third set of questions:
• Is it possible (and how) to identify sets of spatial points that behave
hydrologically in a similar way ? (a question that pervades Hydrology since many years:
google hydrological symilarity)
•What is explained by the form, topology, and geometry of catchments ?
•What we can do to characterize uncertainties in hydrological modeling ?
And which is the acceptable degree of confidence to say that a model is a
good model ?
•Is really possible to work cooperatively building, we dwarfs, on the
shoulder of each other, and maybe of some giant ? Or is hydrology
condemned to an endemic dilettantism ? (e.g Klemes, WRR, 1986)
56
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65. Peakflow
Peakflow
(Rigon et al., HESS, 2011)
Is a “minimalistic effort” when compared to the others. It is
an event based GIUH (width function flavor) model of
rainfall runoff which try to use the topographic information
for appropriate modeling.
Hokusai, 1829-32
57
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66. The structure of Peakflow
Peakflow
(a W-GIUH) model
(Rigon et al., HESS, 2011)
Effective rainfall
Surface flows Aggregation
(Width function)
Diffusive wave
58
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67. The structure of Peakflow
The main news is that during flood peaks
•Radiation and evapotranspiration are neglected (what is relevant is
included in the iniital conditions)
•you can assume very simplified mechanisms of runoff production
•flood wave celerity can be kept constant (as a first approx.)
•the most of the variance of flood hydrograph is explained by the
geometry and topology of the basin (and the space-time variation of
rainfall
59
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68. The structure of Peakflow
The main news is that during flood peaks
•Radiation and evapotranspiration are neglected (what is relevant is
included in the iniital conditions)
•you can assume very simplified mechanisms of runoff production
•flood wave celerity can be kept constant (as a first approx.)
•the most of the variance of flood hydrograph is explained by the
geometry and topology of the basin (and the space-time variation of
rainfall
• well, I did not talk about the runoff coefficient
59
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69. The structure of Peakflow
You can assume very simplified mechanisms of
runoff production
Well, more based on heuristics, since evidence shows that initial
condition for large floods (don’t want to talk of return period!) in a
basin, and rainfall space-time distribution (but mostly timing counts,
Rinaldo et al., 200X) are similar for a given basin.
60
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70. The structure of Peakflow
Flood wave celerity can be kept constant
(as a first approx.)
Leopold and Maddock, 1953
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71. The structure of Peakflow
Flood wave celerity can be kept constant
(as a first approx.)
Follows also from theory of
minimum energy dissipation:
- Rodriguez-Iturbe et al., Energy dissipation, runoff production and the
three-dimensional structure of river networks, WRR, 1992
- Rodriguez-Iturbe and Rinaldo, Fractal River Basin, CUP 1997
- Rinaldo et al., Channel Networks, Rev. Earth and Plan. Sciences, 1998
62
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72. The structure of Peakflow
The most of the variance of flood
hydrograph is explained by the geometry
and topology of the basin (and the space-
time variation of rainfall)
- Rinaldo et al., Geomorphological Dispersion, WRR, 1992
- Rinaldo et al, Can you gauge the shape of a basin ? , WRR, 1995
- D’Odorico and Rigon, Hillslope and channel contributions to the
hydrologic response, WRR, 2003
63
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73. Results with Peakflow
Good results
Fort Cobb, OK USA
05/26/2008
After Perathoner, 2011
64
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74. Results with Peakflow
Less good result*
Little Washita, OK
19/06/2007
After Perathoner, 2011
* On Little Washita we had also good results 65
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75. Results with Peakflow
Less good result
Passirio, Italy
23/07/2008
After Perathoner, 2011
66
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76. Results with Peakflow
Observations
There was a big trick: the runoff coefficient was estimated “a -priori”
and was:
Fort Cobb <- 0.14
Little Washita <- 0.7
Passirio <- 0.2
67
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77. Results with Peakflow
Observations
It seems that in some situations there is a delayed production of runoff which
produces large recession curves with local maxima of discharges that do not
correspond to rainfall impulses. Therefore the “tricky runoff coefficient” could
be different from surface and subsurface flows. In the case of Passirio, it could
be snow melting.
PBIAS is always negative, meaning that a systematic underestimation of flow
discharge.
68
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78. Questions
A fourth set of questions
•How, the hell, can you estimated that damned runoff coefficient ?
•Is there really there the minimal information for forecasting floods or
can we do even better ?
•We used everywhere (with some tricks but with ) with success. Why we
did not systematize the parameters choice ?
•Can we modify the model structure to include spatial variability of
storms ?
•Which storms should be use for envisioning extreme events ?
69
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79. GEOFRAME
GEOFRAME 201* Vision
Out R JGrass-udig- NWW
OMS3- NetCDF
GEOtop NewAge Boussinesq PeakFlow
Models
SHALSTAB GEOtop-FS The Horton Machine
In JGrass-udig- OMS3- NetCDF
METEO
/IO
Environmental Data Center
Data (Postgres/Postgis/Ramadda/H2)
70
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80. Find this presentation at
http://www.slideshare.net/GEOFRAMEcafe/rr-reflections
Ulrici, 2000 ?
Other material at
http://abouthydrology.blogspot.com 71
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81. Thank you for your attention
From the work "the thousand rivers” (i mille fiumi) by Arrigo Boetti and Anna-marie Sauzeau-Boetti
classification by order of magnitude is the most common method for classifying information relative to a certain category, in the case of rivers, size can be
understood to the power of one, two, or three, that is, it can be expressed in km, km2, or km3 (length, catchment area, or discharge), the length criterion is
the most arbitrary and naive but still the most widespread, and yet it is impossible to measure the length of a river for the thousand and more perplexities
that its fluid nature brings up (because of its meanders and its passage through lakes, because of its ramifications around islands or its movements in the
delta areas, because of man’s intervention along its course, because of the elusive boundaries between fresh water and salt water...) many rivers have
never been measured because their banks and waters are inaccessible, even the water spirits sympathize at times with the flora and the fauna in order to
keep men away, as a consequence some rivers flow without name, unnamed because of their untouched nature, or unnamable because of human
aversion (some months ago a pilot flying low over the brazilian forest discovered a “new” tributary of the amazon river). other rivers cannot be measured,
instead, because they have a name, a casual name given to them by men (a single name along its entire course when the river, navigable, becomes
means of human communication; different names when the river, formidable, visits isolated human groups); now the entity of a river can be established
either with reference to its name (trail of the human adventure), or with reference to its hydrographic integrity (the adventure of the water from the remotest
source point to the sea, independently of the names assigned to the various stretches), the problem is that the two adventures rarely coincide, usually the
adventure of the explorer is against the current, starting from the sea; the adventure of the water, on the other hand, finishes there, the explorer going
upstream must play heads or tails at every fork, because upstream of every confluence everything rarefies: the water, sometimes the air, but always one’s
certainty, while the river that descends towards the sea gradually condenses its waters and the certainty of its inevitable path, who can say whether it is
better to follow man or the water? the water, say the modern geographers, objective and humble, and so the begin to recompose the identity of the rivers,
an example: the mississippi of new orleans is not the extension of the mississippi that rises from lake itasca in minnesota, as they teach at school, but of
a stream that rises in western montana with the name jefferson red rock and then becomes the mississippi-missouri in st louis, the number of kilometres
upstream is greater on the missouri side, but in fact this “scientific” method is applied only to the large and prestigious rivers, those likely to compete for
records of length, the methodological rethinking is not wasted on minor rivers (less than 800km) which continue to be called, and measured, only
according to their given name, even if, where there are two source course (with two other given names), the longer of the two could be rightly included in
the main course, the current classification reflects this double standard, this follows the laws of water and the laws of men, because that is how the
relevant information is given, in short, it reflects the biased game of information rather than the fluid life of water, this classification was began in 1970 and
ended in 1973, some data were transcribed from famous publications, numerous data were elaborated from material supplied non-european geographic
institution, governments, universities, private research centres, and individual accademics from all over the world, this convergence of documentation
constitutes the the substance and the meaning of the work, the innumerable asterisks contained in these thousand record cards pose innumerable doubts
and contrast with the rigid classification method, the partialness of the existing information, the linguistic problems associated with their identity, and the
irremediably elusive nature of water all mean that this classification, like all those that proceeded it or that will follow, will always be provisional and
illusionary
Anne-marie Sauzeau-Boetti
(TN the text is published without capital letters) 72
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