This document outlines a study on interpolation and extrapolation methods for implied volatility slices and surfaces under arbitrage-free conditions. It introduces the Stochastic Volatility Inspired (SVI) model, which provides a parametric fit for implied volatility data. The SVI model is chosen for this study due to its closed-form formula and ability to fit equity market data. The document also discusses the convergence of the Heston stochastic volatility model to the SVI model at large times.
This study examined the prevalence of tick infestation on livestock in Pothwar, Pakistan. A total of 1804 animals were examined from October 2008 to August 2009, of which 814 (45.1%) were infested with ticks. Cattle had the highest rate of infestation at 58.8% while goats were the lowest at 38.8%. Six tick genera were identified with Haemaphysalis being the most prevalent. Tick infestation rates and burdens were highest in summer months like July and August when humidity and temperatures are higher, and lowest in winter months.
Autocorrelation- Detection- part 2- Breusch-Godfrey Test and Durbin's h testShilpa Chaudhary
This document discusses various tests for detecting autocorrelation, including the Durbin-Watson d test, Durbin's h test, and the Breusch-Godfrey (BG) test. The BG test allows for nonstochastic regressors and higher-order autoregressive schemes unlike the Durbin-Watson d test. The steps of the BG test are outlined. An example question demonstrates how to apply the BG test and Durbin's h test to check for autocorrelation in a regression. It is noted that autocorrelation could be due to pure autocorrelation or model misspecification.
This document discusses several perspectives and solutions to Bayesian hypothesis testing. It outlines issues with Bayesian testing such as the dependence on prior distributions and difficulties interpreting Bayesian measures like posterior probabilities and Bayes factors. It discusses how Bayesian testing compares models rather than identifying a single true model. Several solutions to challenges are discussed, like using Bayes factors which eliminate the dependence on prior model probabilities but introduce other issues. The document also discusses testing under specific models like comparing a point null hypothesis to alternatives. Overall it presents both Bayesian and frequentist views on hypothesis testing and some of the open controversies in the field.
1) Autocorrelation refers to correlation between members of a time series or cross-sectional data set ordered by time or space.
2) In a time series, successive errors are often correlated, violating the assumption of independent errors in a linear regression model.
3) Autocorrelation occurs when there is correlation between a variable and its own past or lagged values, while serial correlation refers to correlation between two different time series.
This study examined the prevalence of tick infestation on livestock in Pothwar, Pakistan. A total of 1804 animals were examined from October 2008 to August 2009, of which 814 (45.1%) were infested with ticks. Cattle had the highest rate of infestation at 58.8% while goats were the lowest at 38.8%. Six tick genera were identified with Haemaphysalis being the most prevalent. Tick infestation rates and burdens were highest in summer months like July and August when humidity and temperatures are higher, and lowest in winter months.
Autocorrelation- Detection- part 2- Breusch-Godfrey Test and Durbin's h testShilpa Chaudhary
This document discusses various tests for detecting autocorrelation, including the Durbin-Watson d test, Durbin's h test, and the Breusch-Godfrey (BG) test. The BG test allows for nonstochastic regressors and higher-order autoregressive schemes unlike the Durbin-Watson d test. The steps of the BG test are outlined. An example question demonstrates how to apply the BG test and Durbin's h test to check for autocorrelation in a regression. It is noted that autocorrelation could be due to pure autocorrelation or model misspecification.
This document discusses several perspectives and solutions to Bayesian hypothesis testing. It outlines issues with Bayesian testing such as the dependence on prior distributions and difficulties interpreting Bayesian measures like posterior probabilities and Bayes factors. It discusses how Bayesian testing compares models rather than identifying a single true model. Several solutions to challenges are discussed, like using Bayes factors which eliminate the dependence on prior model probabilities but introduce other issues. The document also discusses testing under specific models like comparing a point null hypothesis to alternatives. Overall it presents both Bayesian and frequentist views on hypothesis testing and some of the open controversies in the field.
1) Autocorrelation refers to correlation between members of a time series or cross-sectional data set ordered by time or space.
2) In a time series, successive errors are often correlated, violating the assumption of independent errors in a linear regression model.
3) Autocorrelation occurs when there is correlation between a variable and its own past or lagged values, while serial correlation refers to correlation between two different time series.
Time series econometrics deals with time series data that poses challenges due to non-stationarity. There are three types of stochastic processes - stationary, purely random, and non-stationary. Random walk models including random walk with and without drift are examples of non-stationary processes. A unit root stochastic process refers to non-stationary time series. Time series can be either trend stationary or difference stationary. Failing to account for non-stationarity can result in spurious regressions with high R-squared but no meaningful relationship between variables.
1. The document discusses electromagnetic induction, which was discovered by Faraday in 1831. It describes how a changing magnetic field can induce an electric current in a nearby conductor.
2. Electromagnetic induction is the fundamental principle behind many modern technologies like electric guitars, generators, and the electric power grid. It is an important concept in electromagnetism.
3. Lenz's law provides a way to determine the direction of induced currents based on the principle that an induced current will generate a magnetic field that opposes the original change in magnetic flux that caused it.
1) The document discusses modeling volatility in financial time series using autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. These models account for time-varying volatility or variance in the data.
2) As an example, an ARCH(1) model is fitted to monthly changes in the US-UK exchange rate from 1971-2007 which shows evidence of volatility clustering.
3) Similarly, fitting an ARCH(1) model to monthly percentage changes in the NYSE stock index from 1966-2002 also demonstrates volatility clustering in financial returns.
This document discusses heteroskedasticity in econometric models. It defines heteroskedasticity as non-constant variance of the error term, in contrast to the homoskedasticity assumption of constant variance. It explains that while OLS estimates remain unbiased with heteroskedasticity, the standard errors are biased. Robust standard errors can provide consistent standard errors even with heteroskedasticity. The Breusch-Pagan and White tests are presented as methods to test for the presence of heteroskedasticity based on the residuals. Weighted least squares is also introduced as a method to obtain more efficient estimates than OLS when the form of heteroskedasticity is known.
The document discusses strategies for effective control of foot-and-mouth disease in Kerala, India. It proposes incorporating clinical surveillance, migration control, border trade screening, and rapid detection measures. The key implementation challenge is the need for fast, reliable, decentralized diagnostic testing. The document recommends using a rapid lateral flow test for the non-structural proteins of the foot-and-mouth virus, which can distinguish infected from vaccinated animals and meets all requirements for field use.
This document discusses heteroskedasticity in multiple linear regression models. Heteroskedasticity occurs when the variance of the error term is not constant, violating the assumption of homoskedasticity. If heteroskedasticity is present, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are still unbiased but the standard errors are biased. Various tests for heteroskedasticity are presented, including the Breusch-Pagan and White tests. Weighted least squares (WLS) methods like feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) can produce more efficient estimates than OLS when the form of heteroskedasticity is known or can be estimated.
Umbilical hernias are protrusions of abdominal organs through the abdominal wall near the umbilicus. They can be classified as reducible if the contents can be pushed back into the abdomen, or irreducible if they cannot. Diagnosis involves examination, palpation, and sometimes imaging. Small, reducible hernias may resolve on their own, while larger or irreducible hernias may require surgical repair by dissecting out the sac, ligating the neck, and closing the defect with or without mesh if there is significant tissue loss. Postoperative complications can include infection, adhesions, or dehiscence.
Vesicular stomatitis in Cattle, Horse and pigsRakshith K, DVM
Caused by Rhabdoviridae family, Vesiculovirus. Development of vesicles on the mouth and feet. The virus, an arbovirus, is spread to cattle, horses, and pigs primarily by sandflies and blackflies. The mechanism of injury in vesicular stomatitis is cell dysfunction and lysis leading to intercellular edema with vesiculation, erosion, and ulceration of mucosae and skin. Pathogenesis of the disease is by the bite of the flies, entry of virus, viral replication in the cell and rupture of the cell, which form intercellular space that is fluid filled to form vesicles. Rupture of this vesicles leads to erosion/ulceration of overlying mucosa or skin.
This document provides an overview of univariate time series modeling and forecasting. It defines concepts such as stationary and non-stationary processes. It describes autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) models, including their properties and estimation. It also discusses testing for autocorrelation and stationarity. The key models covered are AR(p) where the current value depends on p past lags, and MA(q) where the error term depends on q past error terms. Wold's decomposition theorem states that any stationary time series can be represented as the sum of deterministic and stochastic components.
Strength and weaknesses of fmd control programme going on in india dr. kale b...Bhoj Raj Singh
Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a devastating disease in many of the developing countries including India despite control programs. The FMD in India is associated with loss of about Rs. 20000 crores per annually. Government of India and different provincial governments are spending hundreds of crore rupees per year to control the disease. The FMD control programme (FMD-CP) is running in India since more than 13 years but control of the FMD is still far away dream and the Disease is regularly visiting even the government farms managed by the India's leading Veterinary and Dairy Institutes. The pros and cons of FMD-CP has been discussed in the presentation.
Conventional method of oestrus synchronization in sheepILRI
Presented by Zeleke Mekuriaw at the EIAR-DBARC-ICARDA-ILRI (LIVES)-FAO Training Workshop on Reproduction in Sheep and Goat, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia, 13-15 October 2014
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Time series econometrics deals with time series data that poses challenges due to non-stationarity. There are three types of stochastic processes - stationary, purely random, and non-stationary. Random walk models including random walk with and without drift are examples of non-stationary processes. A unit root stochastic process refers to non-stationary time series. Time series can be either trend stationary or difference stationary. Failing to account for non-stationarity can result in spurious regressions with high R-squared but no meaningful relationship between variables.
1. The document discusses electromagnetic induction, which was discovered by Faraday in 1831. It describes how a changing magnetic field can induce an electric current in a nearby conductor.
2. Electromagnetic induction is the fundamental principle behind many modern technologies like electric guitars, generators, and the electric power grid. It is an important concept in electromagnetism.
3. Lenz's law provides a way to determine the direction of induced currents based on the principle that an induced current will generate a magnetic field that opposes the original change in magnetic flux that caused it.
1) The document discusses modeling volatility in financial time series using autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. These models account for time-varying volatility or variance in the data.
2) As an example, an ARCH(1) model is fitted to monthly changes in the US-UK exchange rate from 1971-2007 which shows evidence of volatility clustering.
3) Similarly, fitting an ARCH(1) model to monthly percentage changes in the NYSE stock index from 1966-2002 also demonstrates volatility clustering in financial returns.
This document discusses heteroskedasticity in econometric models. It defines heteroskedasticity as non-constant variance of the error term, in contrast to the homoskedasticity assumption of constant variance. It explains that while OLS estimates remain unbiased with heteroskedasticity, the standard errors are biased. Robust standard errors can provide consistent standard errors even with heteroskedasticity. The Breusch-Pagan and White tests are presented as methods to test for the presence of heteroskedasticity based on the residuals. Weighted least squares is also introduced as a method to obtain more efficient estimates than OLS when the form of heteroskedasticity is known.
The document discusses strategies for effective control of foot-and-mouth disease in Kerala, India. It proposes incorporating clinical surveillance, migration control, border trade screening, and rapid detection measures. The key implementation challenge is the need for fast, reliable, decentralized diagnostic testing. The document recommends using a rapid lateral flow test for the non-structural proteins of the foot-and-mouth virus, which can distinguish infected from vaccinated animals and meets all requirements for field use.
This document discusses heteroskedasticity in multiple linear regression models. Heteroskedasticity occurs when the variance of the error term is not constant, violating the assumption of homoskedasticity. If heteroskedasticity is present, ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates are still unbiased but the standard errors are biased. Various tests for heteroskedasticity are presented, including the Breusch-Pagan and White tests. Weighted least squares (WLS) methods like feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) can produce more efficient estimates than OLS when the form of heteroskedasticity is known or can be estimated.
Umbilical hernias are protrusions of abdominal organs through the abdominal wall near the umbilicus. They can be classified as reducible if the contents can be pushed back into the abdomen, or irreducible if they cannot. Diagnosis involves examination, palpation, and sometimes imaging. Small, reducible hernias may resolve on their own, while larger or irreducible hernias may require surgical repair by dissecting out the sac, ligating the neck, and closing the defect with or without mesh if there is significant tissue loss. Postoperative complications can include infection, adhesions, or dehiscence.
Vesicular stomatitis in Cattle, Horse and pigsRakshith K, DVM
Caused by Rhabdoviridae family, Vesiculovirus. Development of vesicles on the mouth and feet. The virus, an arbovirus, is spread to cattle, horses, and pigs primarily by sandflies and blackflies. The mechanism of injury in vesicular stomatitis is cell dysfunction and lysis leading to intercellular edema with vesiculation, erosion, and ulceration of mucosae and skin. Pathogenesis of the disease is by the bite of the flies, entry of virus, viral replication in the cell and rupture of the cell, which form intercellular space that is fluid filled to form vesicles. Rupture of this vesicles leads to erosion/ulceration of overlying mucosa or skin.
This document provides an overview of univariate time series modeling and forecasting. It defines concepts such as stationary and non-stationary processes. It describes autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) models, including their properties and estimation. It also discusses testing for autocorrelation and stationarity. The key models covered are AR(p) where the current value depends on p past lags, and MA(q) where the error term depends on q past error terms. Wold's decomposition theorem states that any stationary time series can be represented as the sum of deterministic and stochastic components.
Strength and weaknesses of fmd control programme going on in india dr. kale b...Bhoj Raj Singh
Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) is a devastating disease in many of the developing countries including India despite control programs. The FMD in India is associated with loss of about Rs. 20000 crores per annually. Government of India and different provincial governments are spending hundreds of crore rupees per year to control the disease. The FMD control programme (FMD-CP) is running in India since more than 13 years but control of the FMD is still far away dream and the Disease is regularly visiting even the government farms managed by the India's leading Veterinary and Dairy Institutes. The pros and cons of FMD-CP has been discussed in the presentation.
Conventional method of oestrus synchronization in sheepILRI
Presented by Zeleke Mekuriaw at the EIAR-DBARC-ICARDA-ILRI (LIVES)-FAO Training Workshop on Reproduction in Sheep and Goat, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia, 13-15 October 2014
13 Jun 24 ILC Retirement Income Summit - slides.pptxILC- UK
ILC's Retirement Income Summit was hosted by M&G and supported by Canada Life. The event brought together key policymakers, influencers and experts to help identify policy priorities for the next Government and ensure more of us have access to a decent income in retirement.
Contributors included:
Jo Blanden, Professor in Economics, University of Surrey
Clive Bolton, CEO, Life Insurance M&G Plc
Jim Boyd, CEO, Equity Release Council
Molly Broome, Economist, Resolution Foundation
Nida Broughton, Co-Director of Economic Policy, Behavioural Insights Team
Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director and Head of Retirement, Savings, and Ageing, Institute for Fiscal Studies
Joanna Elson CBE, Chief Executive Officer, Independent Age
Tom Evans, Managing Director of Retirement, Canada Life
Steve Groves, Chair, Key Retirement Group
Tish Hanifan, Founder and Joint Chair of the Society of Later life Advisers
Sue Lewis, ILC Trustee
Siobhan Lough, Senior Consultant, Hymans Robertson
Mick McAteer, Co-Director, The Financial Inclusion Centre
Stuart McDonald MBE, Head of Longevity and Democratic Insights, LCP
Anusha Mittal, Managing Director, Individual Life and Pensions, M&G Life
Shelley Morris, Senior Project Manager, Living Pension, Living Wage Foundation
Sarah O'Grady, Journalist
Will Sherlock, Head of External Relations, M&G Plc
Daniela Silcock, Head of Policy Research, Pensions Policy Institute
David Sinclair, Chief Executive, ILC
Jordi Skilbeck, Senior Policy Advisor, Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association
Rt Hon Sir Stephen Timms, former Chair, Work & Pensions Committee
Nigel Waterson, ILC Trustee
Jackie Wells, Strategy and Policy Consultant, ILC Strategic Advisory Board
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
KYC Compliance: A Cornerstone of Global Crypto Regulatory FrameworksAny kyc Account
This presentation explores the pivotal role of KYC compliance in shaping and enforcing global regulations within the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrencies. Dive into the intricate connection between KYC practices and the evolving legal frameworks governing the crypto industry.
An accounting information system (AIS) refers to tools and systems designed for the collection and display of accounting information so accountants and executives can make informed decisions.
“Amidst Tempered Optimism” Main economic trends in May 2024 based on the results of the New Monthly Enterprises Survey, #NRES
On 12 June 2024 the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER) held an online event “Economic Trends from a Business Perspective (May 2024)”.
During the event, the results of the 25-th monthly survey of business executives “Ukrainian Business during the war”, which was conducted in May 2024, were presented.
The field stage of the 25-th wave lasted from May 20 to May 31, 2024. In May, 532 companies were surveyed.
The enterprise managers compared the work results in May 2024 with April, assessed the indicators at the time of the survey (May 2024), and gave forecasts for the next two, three, or six months, depending on the question. In certain issues (where indicated), the work results were compared with the pre-war period (before February 24, 2022).
✅ More survey results in the presentation.
✅ Video presentation: https://youtu.be/4ZvsSKd1MzE
How to Identify the Best Crypto to Buy Now in 2024.pdfKezex (KZX)
To identify the best crypto to buy in 2024, analyze market trends, assess the project's fundamentals, review the development team and community, monitor adoption rates, and evaluate risk tolerance. Stay updated with news, regulatory changes, and expert opinions to make informed decisions.
Explore the world of investments with an in-depth comparison of the stock market and real estate. Understand their fundamentals, risks, returns, and diversification strategies to make informed financial decisions that align with your goals.
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
How to Invest in Cryptocurrency for Beginners: A Complete GuideDaniel
Cryptocurrency is digital money that operates independently of a central authority, utilizing cryptography for security. Unlike traditional currencies issued by governments (fiat currencies), cryptocurrencies are decentralized and typically operate on a technology called blockchain. Each cryptocurrency transaction is recorded on a public ledger, ensuring transparency and security.
Cryptocurrencies can be used for various purposes, including online purchases, investment opportunities, and as a means of transferring value globally without the need for intermediaries like banks.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
What Lessons Can New Investors Learn from Newman Leech’s Success?Newman Leech
Newman Leech's success in the real estate industry is based on key lessons and principles, offering practical advice for new investors and serving as a blueprint for building a successful career.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leader
Robust Calibration For SVI Model Arbitrage Free
1. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Implied Volatility Models
Tahar FERHATI
MSc Probability and Finance
Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X
tahar.ferhati@gmail.com
September 27, 2019
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
2. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Outline
Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
3. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Overview
Subject: study the interpolation and extrapolation methods for the
implied volatility slice and multi-slices under arbitrage free
conditions.
Many authors in the past such as Shimko (1993), Kahalé
(2004), Fengler (2009) Jäckel (2014) tried to model implied
volatility.
Two interpolation techniques: parametric interpolation models
such as: SABR, Heston, and non-parametric interpolation like
cubic spline, shape-preserving, natural smoothing splines...etc.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
4. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Figure: Implied volatility models overview
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
5. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Overview
Kahalé (2004) interpolates the call price using piece-wise
convex polynomials, then he calculates the implied volatility
and he interpolates linearly the total implied variance.
Jim Gatheral (2004) presented for the first time the
Stochastic Volatility Inspired model (SVI) in Madrid.
Benko et al.(2007)applied non-parametric smoothing
methods to estimate the impliedvolatility (IV).
Fengler (2009) uses the natural smoothing splines under
suitable shape constraints.
Andreasen-Huge (2010) presented a method based on one
step implicit finite difference Euler scheme to local volatility.
Fingler-Hin (2013) uses semi-nonparametric estimator for
the entire call price surface basedon a tensor-product B-spline.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
6. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Select Model
We choose Stochastic Volatility Inspired model (SVI) model
presented by Gatheral & Jacquier (2014), Why ?
It’s a parametric model that fits very well the input data (total
implied variance) in the equity market.
Model with closed formula.
SVI is a good fit for the slice.
Explicit formula to pass from implied volatility (slice) to
multi-slices (surface).
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
7. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Stochastic Volatility Inspired Model (SVI)
A parametric model with parameters set χR = {a, b, ρ, m, σ}, the
raw SVI parameterization of total implied variance is
w (k; χR) = σ2
imp (k; χR) T = a + b{ρ(k − m) + (k − m)2 + σ2}
Where a ∈ R, b ≥ 0, |ρ| < 1, m ∈ R, σ > 0 and the positivity
condition a + bσ 1 − ρ2 ≥ 0 that ensure w (k, χR) ≥ 0
With k is the log forward moneyness k := log K
FT
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
8. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Stochastic Volatility Inspired (SVI)
Figure: Stochastic Volatility Inspired Model (SVI) with
{a, b, ρ, m, σ} = (1, 0.3, −0.2, 0.001, 0.5)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
9. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Parameters Interpretation
a: determines the overall level of variance: an increasing a
increases the general level of variance, a vertical translation of
the smile.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
10. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Parameters Interpretation
b: controls the angle between the left and right asymptotes:
Increasing b increases the slopes of both the put and call
wings, tightening the smile.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
11. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Parameters Interpretation
ρ: determines the orientation of the smile: increasing ρ
decreases the slope of the left wing, and increases the slope of
the right wing a counter-clockwise rotation of the smile.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
12. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Parameters Interpretation
m: translates the graph: increasing m translates the smile to
the right.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
13. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Parameters Interpretation
σ: determines how smooth the vertex is: increasing σ reduces
the at-the-money (ATM) curvature of the smile.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
14. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
w (k; χN) for Large Strikes
The total implied variance w (k; χN) has the left and right
asymptotes that respect the assumption of linear wings:
w (k; χR) = a − b(1 − ρ)(k − m) k → −∞ (1)
w (k; χR) = a + b(1 + ρ)(k − m) k → ∞ (2)
SVI is consistent with the Roger Lee’s moment formula.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
15. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Convergence From Heston Model to SVI
Gatheral and Jacquier (2010) show the large-time asymptotic
convergence of the Heston implied volatility to SVI.
We consider the Heston model where (St)t≥0 follow the process
dSt =
√
vtStdWt, S0 ∈ R∗
+
dvt = κ (θ − vt) dt + η
√
vtdZt, v0 ∈ R∗
+
d W , Z t = ˜ρdt
(3)
With ˜ρ ∈ [−1, 1], κ, θ, η and v0 are strictly positive and 2κθ ≥ η2
(the Feller condition).
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
16. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Convergence From Heston Model To SVI
Proposition: If κ − ˜ρη > 0 then σ2
SVI (x) = σ2
∞(x) for all x ∈ R
and (T −→ ∞)
The SVI parameters in function of the Heston parameters model
are:
ω1 :=
4κθ
η2 (1 − ˜ρ2)
(2κ − ˜ρη)2 + η2 (1 − ˜ρ2) − (2κ − ˜ρη) , and
ω2 := η
κθ
and we find the equivalent SVI parameters (a, b, ρ, m, σ);
a =
ω1
2
1 − ρ2
, b =
ω1ω2
2T
, ρ = ˜ρ
m = −
ρT
ω2
, σ =
1 − ρ2T
ω2
(4)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
17. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
The SVI Jump-Wings (SVI-JW)
In order to be more intuitive for traders, SVI-JW with parameters
set χJ = {vt, ψt, pt, ct, vt} is defined from the raw SVI parameters
by
vt =
a + b{−ρm +
√
m2 + σ2}
t
ψt =
1
√
wt
b
2
−
m
√
m2 + σ2
+ ρ
pt =
1
√
wt
b(1 − ρ)
ct =
1
√
wt
b(1 + ρ)
˜vt = a + bσ 1 − ρ2 /t
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
18. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Interpretation of SVI-JW parameters
The SVI-JW parameters have the following interpretations:
Vt gives the ATM variance;
ψt gives the ATM skew;
Pt gives the slope of the left (put) wing;
Ct gives the slope of the right (call) wing;
vt is the minimum implied variance.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
19. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
Definition:
A volatility surface is free of static arbitrage if and only if the
following conditions are satisfied:
1. It is free of calendar spread arbitrage;
2. Each time slice is free of butterfly arbitrage.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
20. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Calendar Spread Arbitrage (Expiry T axis)
Definition: the volatility surface w is free of calendar spread
arbitrage if and only if
∂tw(k, t) ≥ 0, for all k ∈ R and t > 0
There is no calendar spread arbitrage if there are no crossed lines
on a total variance plot (fig. right).
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
21. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Butterfly Arbitrage (strike k axis)
Butterfly arbitrage is related to the convexity of the (call/put)
price with respect to the strike k.
We can find an equivalent condition to the (call/put)
price convexity in terms of the total implied variance w(k).
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
22. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Definition: A slice is said to be free of butterfly arbitrage if the
corresponding density is non-negative.
Breeden and Litzenberger, derive an expression of the
discounted risk neutral density p(k) as function of
the second derivative of the call price C(K) with respect to
the strike K.
p(k) =
∂2C(k)
∂K2
K=Ft ek
=
∂2CBS(k, w(k))
∂K2
K=Ft ek
, k ∈ IR (5)
p(k) =
g(k)
2πw(k)
exp −
d−(k)2
2
(6)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
23. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Butterfly Arbitrage (Strike k axis)
Where the function g : IR → IR
g(k) := 1 −
kw (k)
2w(k)
2
−
w (k)2
4
1
w(k)
+
1
4
+
w (k)
2
(7)
Lemma: A slice is free of butterfly arbitrage if and only if
g(k) ≥ 0 for all k ∈ R.
limK→+∞ CBS(T, k) = 0 ⇐⇒ limk→+∞ d+(k) = −∞
Problem: the nonlinear behavior of g(k) makes it difficult to find
general conditions on the parameters that would eliminate butterfly
arbitrage.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
24. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI’s Parameters Boundaries
We determine Lower and Upper boundaries of each of the SVI
parameters (a, b, ρ, m, σ).
We have some restrictions on the parameters that follow from the
parameterization of the model such as:
b ≥ 0; | ρ |< 1; σ > 0.
Parameter a and SVI Minimum
wmin(k∗
) = a + b σ 1 − ρ2 > 0 ⇐⇒ (a > 0)
0 < a ≤ max(wmarket
)
Parameter b and left wing: for the right wing the slop is
b(ρ + 1) and it should not exceed to 2 which is consistent with
Roger Lee formula.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
25. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI’s Parameters Boundaries
lim
K→+∞
CBS(T, k) = 0 ⇐⇒ lim
k→+∞
d+(k) = −∞
Is satisfied for a function w(k) if
lim sup
k→∞
w(k)
2k
< 1.
Or we have,
lim sup
k→∞
w(k)
k
= b(ρ + 1)
Finally, we obtain
b(ρ + 1) < 2, for | ρ |< 1 (8)
The b boundaries are: 0 < b < 1
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
26. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI’s Parameters Boundaries
Correlation Parameter ρ
−1 < ρ < 1
We can summarize the obvious boundaries for the SVI raw
parameters as following
0 < amin = 10−5
≤ a ≤ max(wmarket
)
0 < bmin = 0.001 < b < 1
−1 < ρ < 1
2 min
i
ki ≤ m ≤ 2 max
i
ki
0 < σmin = 0.01 ≤ σ ≤ σmax = 1
(9)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
27. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Sequential Least-Squares Quadratic Programming (SLSQP)
To calibrate the SVI, we apply a Sequential Quadratic
Programming (SQP) algorithm which is a non-linearly
constrained gradient-based optimization.
SQP algorithm is proposed for the first time by Wilson in his
PhD thesis (1963).
Definition: we consider xk
k∈N0
a sequence of iterates
converging to x∗, the sequence is said to convergence quadratically,
if there exist c > 0 and kmax ≥ 0 such that for all k ≥ kmax
xk+1
− x∗
≤ c xk
− x∗
2
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
28. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Some Classification of QP’s
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
29. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
The Objective Function
The least-Squares objective function to optimize is f (k; χR), where
χR = {a, b, ρ, m, σ} is the set of the parameters model, for an
expiry time fix T.
f (k; χR) =
n
i=1
ωmodel
SVI(i) − ωmarket
Total(i)
2
f (k; χR) =
n
i=1
a + b ρ(k − m) + (k − m)2 + σ2 − ωmarket
Total(i)
2
Where ki := log Ki
FT
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
30. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
The Non Linear Problem (NLP)
We optimize the objective function subject to constraints then the
problem is reduced to find the optimal parameters
χR = (a∗, b∗, ρ∗, m∗, σ∗) s.t:
(NLP) : min
x∈R5
f (k; χR)
ad ≤ a ≤ au
bd ≤ b < bu
ρd < ρ < ρu
md ≤ m ≤ mu
σd ≤ σ ≤ σu
g (k; χR) > = constant
(10)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
31. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Lagrangian of the NLP
The problem define in (10) is a Quadratic Problem with
inequality and bound constraints.
The Lagrange function of the (NLP) SVI optimization problem
is
L (k; χR) = f (k; χR) −
m
j=1
λj [gj (k; χR) − ] (11)
Where λj is the Lagrange multiplier.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
32. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) in Brief
Given a constrained optimization problem
A rough scheme for the SQP algorithm:
Step 0: start from x0
Step k: xk+1 = xk + αkdk
where αk the step-length and dk is the search-direction.
To find the search direction dk, we reformulate the original (NLP)
problem to a Quadratic Programming Sub-problem by
A quadratic approximation of the Lagrange function L (k; χR).
A linear approximation of the constraints function gj (k; χR).
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
33. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) in Brief
The search-direction dk: is computed using a Quadratic
Programming Sub-problem:
(QP) : min
d∈Rn
1
2
dT
Bk
d + f xk
d
Subject to
gj xk
d + gj xk
≥ , j = 1, . . . , m
Where B := 2
xx L(x, λ) is the Hessian of the Lagrangian.
The step-length αk: is determine by a 1D minimization of a
merit function M xk + αdk a function that guarantees a
sufficient decrease in the objective f (x) and satisfaction of
constraints along dk with an appropriate step length αk
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
34. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Some Arbitrage Examples
Example 01: Axel Vogt From Wilmott.com
Using Sequential Least-Squares Quadratic Programming
(SLSQP), we are able to tackle this problem and to calibrate
the SVI with arbitrage free.
We consider the following raw SVI parameters:
(a, b, m, ρ, σ) = (−0.0410, 0.1331, 0.3586, 0.3060, 0.4153)
With T = 1
Then the new SVI parameters arbitrage free are;
(a, b, m, ρ, σ) = (10−5
, 0.08414, 0.24957, 0.16962, 0.1321)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
35. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Example 01 Axel Vogt
Figure: Plots of the total variance (left) and the function g(k) (right),
with and without arbitrage for g(k) > = 0.05
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
36. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Arbitrage Examples 02
Let’s consider the following example
(a, b, m, ρ, σ) = (0.001, 0.6, −0.5, 0.07, 0.1)
Some thing interesting in our example is that the SVI
parameters even when they respect the boundaries conditions
(14), we can have an arbitrage.
Then the new SVI parameters with arbitrage free after
calibration are
(a, b, m, ρ, σ) = (10−5
, 0.5691, −0.4345, 0.1318, 0.1428)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
37. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Arbitrage Examples 02
Figure: Plots of the total variance (left) and the function g(k) (right),
with and without arbitrage
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
38. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Equity Indexes Calibration
After testing our algorithm in two arbitrage examples, we test
the performance of our algorithm.
The input data is the options prices (Call and Put) listed on
23 indexes (14 maturities each one) such as: EURO STOXX
50, CAC 40, NIKKEI 225, FTSE Mid 250 Index, SWISS
MARKET IND, Hang Seng, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, MSCI
world TR Index, Sao Paulo SE Bovespa Index,...etc
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
39. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Calibration for CAC40
Figure: SVI fits for the total implied variance CAC40 on April 05, 2019
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
40. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Multi-Slices SVI Calibration
We apply the Sequential Least-Squares Quadratic
Programming (SLSQP) method to calibrate the SVI model in
both axes: strikes andmaturities.
This calibration will respect the SVI’s bounds and mostly both
type of arbitrage: butterfly ( in the strikes axis) and calendar
spread (in the maturity axis).
The objective function f (k; χR) as previously, where
χR = {a, b, ρ, m, σ} is the set of the model’s parameters, for
an expiry time fix T.
f (k; χR) =
n
i=1
ωmodel
SVI(i) − ωmarket
Total(i)
2
(12)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
41. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Multi-Slices SVI Calibration
(NLP) : min
x∈R5
f (k; χR)
ad ≤ a ≤ au
bd ≤ b < bu
ρd < ρ < ρu
md ≤ m ≤ mu
σd ≤ σ ≤ σu
g (k; χR) > = constant > 0
∂T w(k, T) ≥ , ∀k ∈ IR, T > 0, > 0
(13)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
42. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Multi-Slices SVI Calibration
In practice, we start the calibration with SVI slice corresponding to
the lowest maturity and more we move up to the next maturity
more we add the constraint of non-crossing slices as bellow
w(k, T0) > 0, > 0
w(k, T1) > w(k, T0)
...
w(k, Ti ) > w(k, Ti−1) 1 ≤ i ≤ n
(14)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
43. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Multi-Slices SVI Calibration
The Lagrange function of the (NLP) SVI optimization problem is
L (k; χR) = f (k; χR) −
m
j=1
λj [gj (k; χR) − ]
−
n
i=1
m
j=1
νj [wj (k, Ti ) − wj (k, Ti−1) − ]
Applying the SLSQP algorithm for calibration allows to
eliminate both arbitrages: calendar spread and butterfly during
the calibration step. Our SVI’s parameters are arbitrage free.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
44. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Multi-Slices SVI Calibration
The Lagrange function of the (NLP) SVI optimization problem is
L (k; χR) = f (k; χR) −
m
j=1
λj [gj (k; χR) − ]
−
n
i=1
m
j=1
νj [wj (k, Ti ) − wj (k, Ti−1) − ]
The continues lines represent the fit of the SVI model, and we note
that this lines are separated as following.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
45. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Multi-Slices SVI Calibration
Figure: SVI calibration arbitrage free (butterfly & calendar spread) for
(SP ASX 200), dots (input data), continue line (SVI model)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
46. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Multi-Slices SVI Calibration
Figure: SVI calibration for the index (DJ Stoxx 600 Utilities Rt Inde)
(left) and (Swiss Market Ind) (right), with both butterfly & calendar
spread arbitrage free. Dots (input data) and continue line is SVI model.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
47. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Calibration without Weights
The SVI calibration fits all the input data points with the same
weight which is one.
Figure: SVI fits without weights for the TOPIX Stock Index
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
48. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Calibration with Weights
In practice, the very important and liquid zone is At The
Money zone (ATM), hence, giving more weights in this zone is
very important comparing to the wings zone.
The most appropriate method is to give weights to the loss
function that gradually decreases from the ATM to the wings.
f (k; χR) =
n
i=1
wi SVImodel
(i) − SVImarket
Total(i)
2
W = (..., wi−3, wi−2, wi−1, wATM, wi , wi+1, wi+2, ...)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
49. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
SVI Calibration with Weights
Figure: SVI fits with weights for the TOPIX Stock Index
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
50. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Non-parametric Interpolation
Arbitrage-Free Smoothing by Fengler
Fengler presented an approach for smoothing implied volatility
interpolation.
Method: natural (cubic) splines to interpolate call price under
suitable shape constraints.
The input data: don’t need to be arbitrage free.
These splines fit the input data backwards in time axis starting
with the largest maturity.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
51. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Let’s consider yi is the call prices observed in the market with
respect to strikes a = u0, u1, ..., un+1 = b.
g is the natural cubic spline function (call price model)
twice differentiable C2([a, b]) and defined on [a, b] by
g(u) =
n
i=0
1 {[ui , ui+1)} si (u) (15)
With;
si (u)
def
= di (u − ui )3
+ ci (u − ui )2
+ bi (u − ui ) + ai
For i = 0, . . . , n and given constants parameters ai , bi , ci , di .
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
52. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Problem Optimization
We consider the optimization problem subject to a number of linear
inequality constraints
n
i=1
{yi − g (ui )}2
+ λ
b
a
g (v) dv (16)
The smoothness of g can be determined by varying the
parameter λ > 0.
The optimization problem in (16) can be written as the
solution of the quadratic program.
min
x
− y x +
1
2
x Bx
subject to A x = 0
(17)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
53. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
No Arbitrage Constraints
The convexity constraint of the call price
g (ui ) = γi ≥ 0, γ1 = γn = 0
The monotonicity & positivity
g2 − g1 ≥ −e−rt,τ τ
(u2 − u1)
gn−1 − gn ≥ 0
The no-arbitrage constraints on the call price
e−δt,r τ
St − e−rt,τ τ
u1 ≤ g1 ≤ e−δt,τ τ
St
gn ≥ 0
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
54. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Conclusion
In this thesis we studied the Stochastic Volatility Inspired
model (SVI) as implied volatility model and we gave an
overview for some non-parametric interpolation methods.
We established the characterization of static arbitrage
(calendar spread & butterfly).
We provided the SVI’s parameters boundaries and the
initial guess.
The main result in this thesis is: a new robust calibration
method for the SVI model using Sequential Quadratic
Programming (SQP) optimization method that allows
automatic elimination of arbitrage (butterfly and calendar
spread) during the calibration.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
55. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Conclusion
We illustrated the performance of our algorithm in two
numerical examples with arbitrage, one of them is the famous
Axel Vogt example.
We applied the method to calibrate the implied volatility for 23
indexes with 14 maturities each (322 slices).
We presented calibration with weights to give more
importance to the ATM zone rather than the wings.
The prospects results in the future: use the SVI calibration
model in the FX market and also to price different interest
rates derivatives such as: swaptions, cap and floor...
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
56. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Conclusion
We plan to make an asymptotic study of the function
g(k), and to find an analytic expression that guarantees the
positivity of this function.
We could also apply the same calibration method (SLSQP) to
the SABR model which will could guarantee calibration
arbitrage free and to fix the arbitrage problem in this model.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
57. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
58. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
ANNEX - Solution of The NLP
There are two classes of algorithms:
The active-set method (ASM)
The interior point method (IPM).
Active Set Method: the solution of the (NLP) problem is
iteratively, we start with initial value of the parameter’s vector x0,
and the (k+1) interation of xk+1 will be obtained from the previous
one of xk.
xk+1
:= xk
+ αk
dk
(18)
Where;
dk is the search direction in the kth step.
αth is the step length.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
59. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
The search direction
To find the search direction dk, we reformulate the original (NLP)
problem to a Quadratic Programming Sub-problem by
A quadratic approximation of the Lagrange function L (k; χR).
A linear approximation of the constraints function gj (k; χR).
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
60. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
The search direction
The SQP algorithm replace the objective function by its local
quadratic approximation,
f (x) ≈ f xk
+ f xk
x − xk
+
1
2
x − xk
T
Hf xk
x − xk
and similarly the constraint function will be replaced by linear
approximation,
g(x) ≈ g xk
+ g xk
x − xk
We define,
d(x) := x − xk
, Bk
:= Hf xk
Where H is the Hessian matrix.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
61. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
The search direction
The formulation of the subproblem will be
(QP) : min
d∈Rn
1
2
dT
Bk
d + f xk
d
Subject to
gj xk
d + gj xk
≥ , j = 1, . . . , m
Where ; f (x) and gj (x) are the gradients of the functions f and
g respectively and B is the search direction proposed for the first
time by Wilson in 1963 and defines by B := 2
xx L(x, λ)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
62. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Quadratic Programming Sub-problem
(EQP) : min
d∈Rn
1
2
dT
Bk
d + f xk
d
S.t ad ≤ a ≤ au
bd ≤ b < bu
ρd < ρ < ρu
md ≤ m ≤ mu
σd ≤ σ ≤ σu
gj xk
d + gj xk
≥ j = 1, . . . , m
(19)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
63. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Active Set Method
In order to solve this problem, we consider the solution dk, λk T
and we move in this direction
xk+1
:= xk
+ αk
dk
respecting the restrictions
f xk
+ αk
dk
< f xk
and
α ≤ ˆαk
=
min
cj −aT
j xk
aT
j dk , if aT
j dk < 0 for some j /∈ Ik
a
+∞, if aT
j dk ≥ 0 for all j /∈ Ik
a
(20)
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
64. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
Active Set Method
ˆαk is positive because the index j does not belong to the active set
and the condition (20) means:
If aT
j dk ≥ 0 all step along dk will not violate the inactive
constraint j.
If aT
j dk < 0 there exist a step αj in which the activates
constraint j : cj − aT
j xk + αj dk = 0
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
65. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
References
[1] Bruno Dupire. Pricing with a smile. 1994.
[2] Emanuel Derman and Iraj Kani. Riding on a smile.Risk, 7, 01
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[3] Nabil Kahale. An arbitrage-free interpolation of volatilities.Risk,
17, 04 2003.
[4] Wolfgang Karl Härdle, M Benko, Matthias Fengler, and Milos
Kopa. On extracting informa-tion implied in options.Computational
Statistics, 22:543–553, 02 2007.
[5] Matthias Fengler. Arbitrage-free smoothing of the implied
volatility surface.QuantitativeFinance, 9(4):417–428, June 2009.
[6] Jesper Andreasen and Brian Huge. Volatility interpolation.Risk
Magazine, 03 2010.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
66. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
References
[7] Judith A. Glaser and P. Heider. Arbitrage-free approximation of
call price surfaces and inputdata risk. 2012.
[8] Matthias Fengler and Lin-Yee Hin. Semi-nonparametric
estimation of the call price surfaceunder strike and time-to-expiry
no-arbitrage constraints. Economics Working Paper Series1136,
University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science,
September 2011.
[9] Jim Gatheral and Antoine Jacquier. Arbitrage-free SVI volatility
surfaces.arXiv e-prints,page arXiv:1204.0646, Apr 2012.
[10] Jim Gatheral. Stochastic volatility and local volatility.Merrill
Lynch, 2003.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
67. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
References
[11] Douglas T. Breeden and Robert H. Litzenberger. Prices of
state-contingent claims implicit inoption prices.The Journal of
Business, 51(4):621–651, 1978.
[12] Jim Gatheral. The volatility surface; a practitioner’s guide.
2006.
[13] Roger W. Lee. The moment formula for implied volatility at
extreme strikes. volume 14.3,pages 469–480, 2004.
[14] Patrick Hagan, Deep Kumar, Andrew Lesniewski, and Diana
E. Woodward. Managing smilerisk.Wilmott Magazine, 1:84–108, 01
2002.
[15] John C. Cox. The constant elasticity of variance option pricing
model.The Journal of PortfolioManagement, 23(5):15–17, 1996.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
68. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
References
[16] Patrick S. Hagan and Diana E. Woodward. Equivalent black
volatilities.Applied MathematicalFinance, 6(3):147–157, 1999.
[17] Jim Gatheral and Antoine Jacquier. Convergence of Heston to
SVI.arXiv e-prints, pagearXiv:1002.3633, Feb 2010.
[18] Zeliade White and Millard B. Stahle. Quasi-explicit calibration
of gatheral ’ s svi model. 2009.
[19] Gaoyue Guo, Antoine Jacquier, Claude Martini, and Leo
Neufcourt. Generalised arbitrage-freeSVI volatility surfaces.arXiv
e-prints, page arXiv:1210.7111, Oct 2012.
[20] Peter Carr and Dilip B. Madan. A note on sufficient
conditions for no arbitrage. 2005.
[21] Fabrice Douglas Rouah. Using the risk neutral density to verify
no arbitrage in impliedvolatility.http://www.frouah.com/
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models
69. Overview
Objectives
Stochastic Volatility Inspired SVI
Characterisation of Static Arbitrage
SVI Calibration
Numerical Applications
Non-parametric Interpolation
References
[22] Abebe Geletu, Quadratic programming problems - a review on
algorithms and applications (Active-set and interior point methods),
Ilmenau University of Technology.
[23] Lykke Rasmussen, Computational Finance - on the search for
performance, PhD Thesis, School of The Faculty of Science,
University of Copenhagen, June 2016.
Tahar FERHATI MSc Probability and Finance Sorbonne Université, École polytechnique X tahar.ferhati@gmail.comImplied Volatility Models