This document summarizes a research article that presents a collision aversion model and cost benefit analysis for inland water transportation.
The key points are:
1. The model analyzes collision risk for inland waterways by estimating collision probability and quantifying consequences like damage, loss of life, and economic losses.
2. It applies the model to Langat River in Malaysia to estimate historical collision rates and predictive costs for implementing collision avoidance measures.
3. The cost benefit analysis compares costs of safety measures to reduced risks and economic benefits to evaluate options for improving safety and environmental protection for sustainable inland water transportation.
This document discusses developing a risk and reliability model for inland water transportation systems to improve safety and environmental protection. Collision is a major risk that can cause high-consequence accidents, so reliability is important for vessel and waterway design. The paper covers a systems approach to proactively assess risk factors like waterways variables and develop mitigation options to prevent and control collision scenarios. The goal is to optimize existing practices and support decision making for sustainable coastal transportation.
A 241-page report released October 3rd by the Maryland Departments of Environment and Natural Resources. The report, titled "Assessment of risks from unconventional gas well development in the Marcellus Shale of Western Maryland," is part of Maryland's ongoing effort to evaluate and perhaps eventually allow shale drilling in the state. This report looks at each stage of the fracking and drillng process and assigns it a risk factor. The only parts of the drilling picture to receive a "high" rank of likely problems all deal with truck traffic. Water contamination, air issues, etc. all received moderate, low, or non-existent ratings for problems.
IRJET - A Case Study on Flood Risk ManagementIRJET Journal
This document summarizes a case study on flood risk management. It discusses three levels of flood risk management actions - operational, project planning, and design levels. At the operational level, accurate flood forecasting and 24/7 emergency response are important. The project planning level involves flood control projects like dams, diversion canals, and river defenses. The design level includes structures like check dams, retaining walls, and building regulations to mitigate flood risk. Flood risk management aims to reduce loss of life and property damage from floods.
IRJET - A Case Study On Flood Risk ManagementIRJET Journal
This document discusses flood risk management through a case study. It begins with an abstract that outlines three levels of risk management actions: operational, project planning, and design. It then provides examples of each level. At the operational level, it discusses tools for flood forecasting and 24/7 emergency response services. At the project planning level, it discusses dams, diversion canals, using floodplains to replenish groundwater, and river defenses like levees. The document aims to evaluate flood risk management strategies and identify factors that influence potential flood risk.
Modelling of life safety in water resource decision makinghamedassaf
This document describes a physically-based model for simulating life safety considerations in water resource decision making. The model represents individual people as Population at Risk Units (PARUs) that are assigned characteristics and behaviors. PARUs are grouped into Population at Risk Groups (PARGs) that behave collectively. The model simulates dam breach flooding and tracks how PARUs and PARGs respond by evacuating buildings and infrastructure or fleeing on foot or in vehicles. PARU characteristics and survivability are updated based on flood conditions. The goal is to provide a transparent, data-driven approach to estimating life safety risks to replace subjective engineering judgments.
Bolsterning National & Global Resilience in the Face of 21st Century MayhemNU_Seattle
Dr. Stephen Flynn, one of the world’s leading experts on critical infrastructure resilience and Director of Northeastern University's Center for Resilience Studies, presented March 31, 2016.
Coming to Northeastern University–Seattle this Fall!
The online Graduate Certificate in Security & Resilience Studies prepares students to manage contemporary transnational risks through gaining a systematic understanding of the principles and policies for enhancing the Security and Resilience of communities and critical systems. http://www.northeastern.edu/seattle/academic_program/graduate-certificate-security-resilience-studies
This document presents a 7-stage framework for analyzing and improving near-miss management programs in the chemical process industry. Near-misses are unplanned incidents that do not result in injury or damage but have the potential to. The framework involves identifying near-misses, reporting them, analyzing causes, determining and disseminating solutions, and ensuring resolutions. Effective near-miss programs encourage employee involvement and can improve safety by addressing accident precursors before harm occurs.
This document discusses developing a risk and reliability model for inland water transportation systems to improve safety and environmental protection. Collision is a major risk that can cause high-consequence accidents, so reliability is important for vessel and waterway design. The paper covers a systems approach to proactively assess risk factors like waterways variables and develop mitigation options to prevent and control collision scenarios. The goal is to optimize existing practices and support decision making for sustainable coastal transportation.
A 241-page report released October 3rd by the Maryland Departments of Environment and Natural Resources. The report, titled "Assessment of risks from unconventional gas well development in the Marcellus Shale of Western Maryland," is part of Maryland's ongoing effort to evaluate and perhaps eventually allow shale drilling in the state. This report looks at each stage of the fracking and drillng process and assigns it a risk factor. The only parts of the drilling picture to receive a "high" rank of likely problems all deal with truck traffic. Water contamination, air issues, etc. all received moderate, low, or non-existent ratings for problems.
IRJET - A Case Study on Flood Risk ManagementIRJET Journal
This document summarizes a case study on flood risk management. It discusses three levels of flood risk management actions - operational, project planning, and design levels. At the operational level, accurate flood forecasting and 24/7 emergency response are important. The project planning level involves flood control projects like dams, diversion canals, and river defenses. The design level includes structures like check dams, retaining walls, and building regulations to mitigate flood risk. Flood risk management aims to reduce loss of life and property damage from floods.
IRJET - A Case Study On Flood Risk ManagementIRJET Journal
This document discusses flood risk management through a case study. It begins with an abstract that outlines three levels of risk management actions: operational, project planning, and design. It then provides examples of each level. At the operational level, it discusses tools for flood forecasting and 24/7 emergency response services. At the project planning level, it discusses dams, diversion canals, using floodplains to replenish groundwater, and river defenses like levees. The document aims to evaluate flood risk management strategies and identify factors that influence potential flood risk.
Modelling of life safety in water resource decision makinghamedassaf
This document describes a physically-based model for simulating life safety considerations in water resource decision making. The model represents individual people as Population at Risk Units (PARUs) that are assigned characteristics and behaviors. PARUs are grouped into Population at Risk Groups (PARGs) that behave collectively. The model simulates dam breach flooding and tracks how PARUs and PARGs respond by evacuating buildings and infrastructure or fleeing on foot or in vehicles. PARU characteristics and survivability are updated based on flood conditions. The goal is to provide a transparent, data-driven approach to estimating life safety risks to replace subjective engineering judgments.
Bolsterning National & Global Resilience in the Face of 21st Century MayhemNU_Seattle
Dr. Stephen Flynn, one of the world’s leading experts on critical infrastructure resilience and Director of Northeastern University's Center for Resilience Studies, presented March 31, 2016.
Coming to Northeastern University–Seattle this Fall!
The online Graduate Certificate in Security & Resilience Studies prepares students to manage contemporary transnational risks through gaining a systematic understanding of the principles and policies for enhancing the Security and Resilience of communities and critical systems. http://www.northeastern.edu/seattle/academic_program/graduate-certificate-security-resilience-studies
This document presents a 7-stage framework for analyzing and improving near-miss management programs in the chemical process industry. Near-misses are unplanned incidents that do not result in injury or damage but have the potential to. The framework involves identifying near-misses, reporting them, analyzing causes, determining and disseminating solutions, and ensuring resolutions. Effective near-miss programs encourage employee involvement and can improve safety by addressing accident precursors before harm occurs.
7)risk approach for potential of solar, hydrogen and convention power mu...Oladokun Sulaiman
This document discusses the potential for using a hybrid power system combining alternative energy sources like solar and hydrogen with conventional sources to meet the power demands of marine ports more sustainably. It notes the environmental challenges faced by reliance on fossil fuels and evaluates different renewable and conventional energy options. The paper argues that a risk-based, integrated approach considering factors like efficiency, cost, and environmental impacts is needed to develop hybrid systems that balance the energy needs of ports with environmental protection goals. It also stresses the importance of modeling and simulation tools to evaluate technical feasibility and inform decision making around hybrid system design and implementation.
This document discusses the potential of using a hybrid biomass cogeneration system for powering marine systems like ports. It notes that waste disposal from ships is an increasing problem and biomass cogeneration can provide environmental benefits by reducing waste and producing energy. The paper considers how ship and port waste can be used in a hybrid system combining biomass with existing energy sources like steam or diesel to meet port energy demands in a more sustainable way. It provides background on sustainability requirements, current renewable energy use, and emerging hybrid systems. Tables show Malaysia's energy consumption, reserves, and outlook.
This document summarizes a study on the potential for using solar energy as a supplemental power source for the diesel engines on landing craft. The study analyzed the reduction in fuel usage and diesel exhaust that could result from adding solar panels, as well as performing an economic analysis. Data was collected on a specific landing craft's power needs, fuel consumption, and voyage routes. Calculations determined how much power solar panels could provide and how much fuel and money could be saved annually with their addition. An economic analysis included cost estimations, cash flow diagrams, and comparisons of the annual average cost with and without solar panels. The results showed solar panels could reduce the generator's annual output and fuel usage by up to 56.5%, saving over 3
Ijetm 22- potential of waste based biomass for marine systemOladokun Sulaiman
This document reviews the potential for using waste-derived bioenergy in marine systems. It discusses how biomass energy from waste can help address environmental problems while making use of depleting resources. Biomass has advantages over other renewable sources as the equipment used is similar to fossil fuels. The document outlines trends in biomass development, including the use of solid biomass materials. It also discusses factors to consider in meeting biomass demands, such as performing an energy audit and risk/cost-benefit analysis. The goal is to bring awareness to adopting policies and technologies to allow the maritime industry to tap into the benefits of using waste to generate power for marine systems.
This document discusses modeling process for safety and environmental risk and reliability of inland water transportation systems. Collision represents a major risk scenario and consequence accidents involving inland waterways require reliable design and operations for safety and environmental protection. The paper discusses recent work in risk and reliability-based design and vessel operation in coastal waters, including a systems-based approach covering proactive risk assessment and holistic evaluation of waterway variables to develop mitigation options and support decision making.
This document provides information about the Journal of Marine Technology and Environment, including:
- It was founded in 2008 as a biannual publication of Constanta Maritime University in Romania.
- It covers topics related to marine science, engineering, environmental issues, renewable energy, safety, chemistry, corrosion, ship design, ocean engineering, and more.
- It lists the editor in chief, associate editors, editorial secretary, scientific board members, and provides contact information for submissions.
- The journal aims to publish papers on advances in marine technology and related fields.
The vast resources of the world’s oceans need
to be fully utilized to benefit human activities
in a sustainable manner. The maritime
industry has made use of the ocean in a very
responsible way, but inland water resources
have been much more underutilized and under-
maintained, especially for transportation.
In an age so dire to find ways to mitigate the
challenge of climate change and its associated
impacts, recent research has indicated
that inland water transportation represents
the cleanest mode of transportation. This
indicates the potential for an increase in usage
of inland waterways for transportation.
The use of inland water transportation is
forecast to rise because of the potential for
short sea shipping, expanding deep-sea operations,
and alternative mitigation options for
climate change. Coastal water transportation
is associated with low probability, high
consequence accidents, which makes reliability
requirements for the design and operation
for safety and environmental protection very
necessary. Collision represents the largest
percentage of accident risk scenarios among
water transportation risk factors. This paper
discusses recent work in risk and reliabilitybased
design, and safe and efficient vessel
operation in coastal waters. This includes
systems based approach that covers proactive
risk as well as holistic, multiple-criteria
assessment of waterways variables required
to develop mitigation options and decision
support for preventive, protective and control
measures for various collision accident
scenarios within inland waterways.
Keywords: Inland transportation, accidents, risk assessment,
vessel safety, collisions, climate change,
marine pollution, navigation
The document discusses risk and hazard analysis processes for deep water marine systems. It begins by introducing the growing need for reliable deep water operations due to environmental concerns and the expansion of offshore activities.
It then discusses the requirements for modeling risk and reliability, including examining system functionality, environmental factors, and life cycle considerations. A key part of the process involves proactively identifying risks through analysis, ranking risks, and generating options to mitigate safety and environmental risks.
The document also outlines how risk assessment has been used in related industries and by regulatory bodies to support decision making. It emphasizes using probabilistic and scenario-based assessments that consider broader impacts. Sensitivity and contingency analyses can also help address uncertainty. Overall, the risk-
This document discusses modeling collision risk frequency for inland waterways. It proposes a safety, environmental risk, and reliability model for collision accident frequency that considers factors like vessel characteristics, traffic characteristics, environmental conditions, operator skill, and quality of information available to operators. The probability of collision per year predicted by the model is acceptable in maritime industries but may be high for waterways with less traffic. Providing measures like traffic separation and vessel traffic management could help maximize sustainable use of the waterway by restoring safety. The goal is to develop a fundamental, sustainable transit risk model to support decision-making around reliable and sustainable inland water transportation development and regulation.
The document discusses developing a predictive and reliability based collision risk model for inland waterways, specifically for Malaysia's Langat River. It aims to estimate collision frequency based on waterway variables and risk factors. The analysis considers dimensions of the waterway as well as factors like vessel characteristics, traffic, environment, and operator skills. Based on the available data for Langat River, the estimated collision frequency is 5.3 accidents in 10,000 years. While acceptable for maritime industry standards, it is considered high for a waterway with less expected traffic. Implementing safety measures like traffic separation could help optimize sustainable use of the channel.
FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR RIVER GAUGING STATION OF MEENACHIL RIVER, KOTTAY...IRJET Journal
This document summarizes a study that performed flood frequency analysis on the Meenachil River in India. Four statistical techniques (Generalized Extreme Value, Log Pearson III, Gumbel Max, and Gaussian distribution) were evaluated to estimate flood peaks with return periods of 2, 10, 50, and 100 years using 34 years of daily discharge data from the Kidangoor gauging station. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the Gumbel Max distribution provided the best fit, followed by Log Pearson III, Generalized Extreme Value, and Gaussian distributions. The analysis found that the Gumbel Max distribution is suitable for predicting expected flood flows in the Meenachil River based on return period.
URBAN FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP OF CHENNAI - GIS AND RANDOM FOREST METHODIRJET Journal
This document summarizes a study that created an urban flood susceptibility map of Chennai, India using GIS and the random forest machine learning method. Eleven factors like elevation, land use, rainfall, and distance from rivers were used as inputs to the random forest model. 300 historic flood locations and 300 non-flood locations were collected and used to train and test the model. The random forest model achieved 95.5% accuracy in predicting flood locations. The output was used to classify the study area into low and high flood susceptibility zones to assist with flood management and mitigation.
Sydney Water Critical Water Mains Strategy and Implementation LESAM2013david zhang
Sydney Water developed a quantitative risk-based tool to help manage its critical water mains in a proactive manner. The tool assesses the risk of individual assets by quantifying the probability of failure and associated economic and social consequences. It considers factors like asset condition, failure history, repair costs, water loss, and transport disruption to estimate risk in dollar values. This allows Sydney Water to better target maintenance programs and prioritize renewals based on robust risk analyses.
Fuzzy Logic Modeling Approach for Risk Area Assessment for Hazardous Material...drboon
The assessment of area in risk of HazMat transportation is very beneficial for the planning of the management of such area. We prioritized the affected area using HazMat-Risk Area Index (HazMatRAI) developed on the basis of Fuzzy Logic. The purpose of such development is to reduce limits of the criteria used for the assessment which we found exist when displaying data related to Hazmat represented by iceberg. In this regard, we categorized type of Membership Function according to Fuzzy set method in order to match the existing criteria, both solid and abstract ones. The conditions of Fuzzy Number and Characteristic are used respectively so that all risk levels are covered. However, the displaying of HazMat-Risk Area Index needs weighing of each criterion that is used for the assessment which significance of each level varies. We used Saaty’s Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to establish weighing value obtained from such assessment. Therefore it is beneficial for the preparation of area with HazMatRAI value is high, hence proper preparation for the management in case of critical situation.
On July 16, 2021 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Edmonton's approach to stormwater flood management', led by Susan Ancel, Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. EPCOR has developed a $1.6 billion Stormwater Integrated Resource Plan (SIRP) to mitigate the impacts of flooding in the community. SIRP envisions all stakeholders – citizens, businesses, industry, the City of Edmonton and EPCOR working together to build a flood-resilient future. The goal is to Slow, Move, Secure, Predict and Respond to flooding events to prevent or reduce the impact. EPCOR’s planned flood mitigations projects will take 20 years to complete. The types of projects that are included in SIRP include dry ponds, low impact development, tunnels, combined sewer separation, outfall control gates, inflow/infiltration reduction, building flood proofing, increased sensors and automatic controls and emergency response equipment. The plan was developed through consultation with Climate Change Adaptation, Insurance and Financial sector groups across North America.
Susan Ancel is the Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. In her prior role, she was Director of Stormwater Strategies, where she was responsible for developing an Integrated Resource Plan for flood mitigation that considered capital and operational risk mitigation planning, as well as the interrelationships between utilities, insurance, disaster response agencies and the public. Prior to her Stormwater Strategies role she was the Director of Water Distribution and Transmission for EPCOR. Susan is a Mechanical engineer with over 30 years’ experience with the municipal utility sector. She has also served on numerous industry committees including the Board of Directors for the Geospatial Information Technology Association (GITA) from 2001 to 2007 and was President of GITA in 2006. She currently serves on the Board of Directors for Canadian Water Network.
This document discusses a risk and reliability analysis study of offshore aquaculture ocean plantation systems. The study aims to qualitatively assess system risks and quantify mooring failure probability, forces, and required mooring numbers. Offshore aquaculture is an emerging industry that could help meet growing seaweed demand. However, reliability studies are needed to ensure offshore floating structures can withstand harsh ocean environments. The study will evaluate risks through methods like FMEA, FTA, and HAZID to recommend safety measures and integrity levels for mooring structures.
This document summarizes the initial steps taken toward developing a comparative index of seaport resilience. Data on potential resilience indicators was collected for 23 North Atlantic ports and analyzed using principal component analysis and correlation matrices. While a numerical resilience score was produced, the results were deemed inaccurate due to low quality, inconsistent data. The analysis concluded that further data exploration was needed to refine the methodology and indicators before producing an accurate resilience ranking. The next steps will focus on creating an algorithm to weight indicators and aggregate scores to evaluate ports' ability to prepare for, resist, recover from, and adapt to disturbances.
This document summarizes a study that examined risks affecting the Nigeria East-West Coastal Highway Project. The study involved identifying risks through literature review and surveys of engineering consultants and construction managers. A risk register containing 245 risks was developed. High impact, high probability risks identified include lack of government political will, changes in government, corruption, insufficient design details, incompetent design teams, unsuitable ground conditions, unstable macroeconomic conditions, and flood/coastal surge risks. The majority (66%) of risks were allocated to contractors by respondents, while clients were allocated only 34% despite clients being better able to manage policy, economic, financial, social, environmental and technological risks. The study provides an in-depth risk analysis and risk register
Theoretical Risk Identification within the Nigeria East- West Coastal Highway...civejjour
This document discusses risks associated with the Nigeria East-West Coastal Highway Project. It begins with background on the project and importance. It then reviews risk management approaches in coastal engineering projects, focusing on frequency-based and life cycle approaches. A literature review found few studies analyzing risks in large coastal projects in Nigeria.
The study involved identifying risks through literature review and expert interviews. Key risks identified include lack of government political will, changes in government, corruption, insufficient design details, incompetent design teams, and ground condition issues. A survey further assessed the likelihood and impact of risks, finding high probability for issues like policy/finance risks, design problems, and environmental/social risks.
7)risk approach for potential of solar, hydrogen and convention power mu...Oladokun Sulaiman
This document discusses the potential for using a hybrid power system combining alternative energy sources like solar and hydrogen with conventional sources to meet the power demands of marine ports more sustainably. It notes the environmental challenges faced by reliance on fossil fuels and evaluates different renewable and conventional energy options. The paper argues that a risk-based, integrated approach considering factors like efficiency, cost, and environmental impacts is needed to develop hybrid systems that balance the energy needs of ports with environmental protection goals. It also stresses the importance of modeling and simulation tools to evaluate technical feasibility and inform decision making around hybrid system design and implementation.
This document discusses the potential of using a hybrid biomass cogeneration system for powering marine systems like ports. It notes that waste disposal from ships is an increasing problem and biomass cogeneration can provide environmental benefits by reducing waste and producing energy. The paper considers how ship and port waste can be used in a hybrid system combining biomass with existing energy sources like steam or diesel to meet port energy demands in a more sustainable way. It provides background on sustainability requirements, current renewable energy use, and emerging hybrid systems. Tables show Malaysia's energy consumption, reserves, and outlook.
This document summarizes a study on the potential for using solar energy as a supplemental power source for the diesel engines on landing craft. The study analyzed the reduction in fuel usage and diesel exhaust that could result from adding solar panels, as well as performing an economic analysis. Data was collected on a specific landing craft's power needs, fuel consumption, and voyage routes. Calculations determined how much power solar panels could provide and how much fuel and money could be saved annually with their addition. An economic analysis included cost estimations, cash flow diagrams, and comparisons of the annual average cost with and without solar panels. The results showed solar panels could reduce the generator's annual output and fuel usage by up to 56.5%, saving over 3
Ijetm 22- potential of waste based biomass for marine systemOladokun Sulaiman
This document reviews the potential for using waste-derived bioenergy in marine systems. It discusses how biomass energy from waste can help address environmental problems while making use of depleting resources. Biomass has advantages over other renewable sources as the equipment used is similar to fossil fuels. The document outlines trends in biomass development, including the use of solid biomass materials. It also discusses factors to consider in meeting biomass demands, such as performing an energy audit and risk/cost-benefit analysis. The goal is to bring awareness to adopting policies and technologies to allow the maritime industry to tap into the benefits of using waste to generate power for marine systems.
This document discusses modeling process for safety and environmental risk and reliability of inland water transportation systems. Collision represents a major risk scenario and consequence accidents involving inland waterways require reliable design and operations for safety and environmental protection. The paper discusses recent work in risk and reliability-based design and vessel operation in coastal waters, including a systems-based approach covering proactive risk assessment and holistic evaluation of waterway variables to develop mitigation options and support decision making.
This document provides information about the Journal of Marine Technology and Environment, including:
- It was founded in 2008 as a biannual publication of Constanta Maritime University in Romania.
- It covers topics related to marine science, engineering, environmental issues, renewable energy, safety, chemistry, corrosion, ship design, ocean engineering, and more.
- It lists the editor in chief, associate editors, editorial secretary, scientific board members, and provides contact information for submissions.
- The journal aims to publish papers on advances in marine technology and related fields.
The vast resources of the world’s oceans need
to be fully utilized to benefit human activities
in a sustainable manner. The maritime
industry has made use of the ocean in a very
responsible way, but inland water resources
have been much more underutilized and under-
maintained, especially for transportation.
In an age so dire to find ways to mitigate the
challenge of climate change and its associated
impacts, recent research has indicated
that inland water transportation represents
the cleanest mode of transportation. This
indicates the potential for an increase in usage
of inland waterways for transportation.
The use of inland water transportation is
forecast to rise because of the potential for
short sea shipping, expanding deep-sea operations,
and alternative mitigation options for
climate change. Coastal water transportation
is associated with low probability, high
consequence accidents, which makes reliability
requirements for the design and operation
for safety and environmental protection very
necessary. Collision represents the largest
percentage of accident risk scenarios among
water transportation risk factors. This paper
discusses recent work in risk and reliabilitybased
design, and safe and efficient vessel
operation in coastal waters. This includes
systems based approach that covers proactive
risk as well as holistic, multiple-criteria
assessment of waterways variables required
to develop mitigation options and decision
support for preventive, protective and control
measures for various collision accident
scenarios within inland waterways.
Keywords: Inland transportation, accidents, risk assessment,
vessel safety, collisions, climate change,
marine pollution, navigation
The document discusses risk and hazard analysis processes for deep water marine systems. It begins by introducing the growing need for reliable deep water operations due to environmental concerns and the expansion of offshore activities.
It then discusses the requirements for modeling risk and reliability, including examining system functionality, environmental factors, and life cycle considerations. A key part of the process involves proactively identifying risks through analysis, ranking risks, and generating options to mitigate safety and environmental risks.
The document also outlines how risk assessment has been used in related industries and by regulatory bodies to support decision making. It emphasizes using probabilistic and scenario-based assessments that consider broader impacts. Sensitivity and contingency analyses can also help address uncertainty. Overall, the risk-
This document discusses modeling collision risk frequency for inland waterways. It proposes a safety, environmental risk, and reliability model for collision accident frequency that considers factors like vessel characteristics, traffic characteristics, environmental conditions, operator skill, and quality of information available to operators. The probability of collision per year predicted by the model is acceptable in maritime industries but may be high for waterways with less traffic. Providing measures like traffic separation and vessel traffic management could help maximize sustainable use of the waterway by restoring safety. The goal is to develop a fundamental, sustainable transit risk model to support decision-making around reliable and sustainable inland water transportation development and regulation.
The document discusses developing a predictive and reliability based collision risk model for inland waterways, specifically for Malaysia's Langat River. It aims to estimate collision frequency based on waterway variables and risk factors. The analysis considers dimensions of the waterway as well as factors like vessel characteristics, traffic, environment, and operator skills. Based on the available data for Langat River, the estimated collision frequency is 5.3 accidents in 10,000 years. While acceptable for maritime industry standards, it is considered high for a waterway with less expected traffic. Implementing safety measures like traffic separation could help optimize sustainable use of the channel.
FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS FOR RIVER GAUGING STATION OF MEENACHIL RIVER, KOTTAY...IRJET Journal
This document summarizes a study that performed flood frequency analysis on the Meenachil River in India. Four statistical techniques (Generalized Extreme Value, Log Pearson III, Gumbel Max, and Gaussian distribution) were evaluated to estimate flood peaks with return periods of 2, 10, 50, and 100 years using 34 years of daily discharge data from the Kidangoor gauging station. Goodness-of-fit tests indicated that the Gumbel Max distribution provided the best fit, followed by Log Pearson III, Generalized Extreme Value, and Gaussian distributions. The analysis found that the Gumbel Max distribution is suitable for predicting expected flood flows in the Meenachil River based on return period.
URBAN FLOOD SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP OF CHENNAI - GIS AND RANDOM FOREST METHODIRJET Journal
This document summarizes a study that created an urban flood susceptibility map of Chennai, India using GIS and the random forest machine learning method. Eleven factors like elevation, land use, rainfall, and distance from rivers were used as inputs to the random forest model. 300 historic flood locations and 300 non-flood locations were collected and used to train and test the model. The random forest model achieved 95.5% accuracy in predicting flood locations. The output was used to classify the study area into low and high flood susceptibility zones to assist with flood management and mitigation.
Sydney Water Critical Water Mains Strategy and Implementation LESAM2013david zhang
Sydney Water developed a quantitative risk-based tool to help manage its critical water mains in a proactive manner. The tool assesses the risk of individual assets by quantifying the probability of failure and associated economic and social consequences. It considers factors like asset condition, failure history, repair costs, water loss, and transport disruption to estimate risk in dollar values. This allows Sydney Water to better target maintenance programs and prioritize renewals based on robust risk analyses.
Fuzzy Logic Modeling Approach for Risk Area Assessment for Hazardous Material...drboon
The assessment of area in risk of HazMat transportation is very beneficial for the planning of the management of such area. We prioritized the affected area using HazMat-Risk Area Index (HazMatRAI) developed on the basis of Fuzzy Logic. The purpose of such development is to reduce limits of the criteria used for the assessment which we found exist when displaying data related to Hazmat represented by iceberg. In this regard, we categorized type of Membership Function according to Fuzzy set method in order to match the existing criteria, both solid and abstract ones. The conditions of Fuzzy Number and Characteristic are used respectively so that all risk levels are covered. However, the displaying of HazMat-Risk Area Index needs weighing of each criterion that is used for the assessment which significance of each level varies. We used Saaty’s Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to establish weighing value obtained from such assessment. Therefore it is beneficial for the preparation of area with HazMatRAI value is high, hence proper preparation for the management in case of critical situation.
On July 16, 2021 ICLR conducted a Friday Forum webinar titled 'Edmonton's approach to stormwater flood management', led by Susan Ancel, Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. EPCOR has developed a $1.6 billion Stormwater Integrated Resource Plan (SIRP) to mitigate the impacts of flooding in the community. SIRP envisions all stakeholders – citizens, businesses, industry, the City of Edmonton and EPCOR working together to build a flood-resilient future. The goal is to Slow, Move, Secure, Predict and Respond to flooding events to prevent or reduce the impact. EPCOR’s planned flood mitigations projects will take 20 years to complete. The types of projects that are included in SIRP include dry ponds, low impact development, tunnels, combined sewer separation, outfall control gates, inflow/infiltration reduction, building flood proofing, increased sensors and automatic controls and emergency response equipment. The plan was developed through consultation with Climate Change Adaptation, Insurance and Financial sector groups across North America.
Susan Ancel is the Director of One Water Planning for EPCOR Water Services in Edmonton, Alberta. In her prior role, she was Director of Stormwater Strategies, where she was responsible for developing an Integrated Resource Plan for flood mitigation that considered capital and operational risk mitigation planning, as well as the interrelationships between utilities, insurance, disaster response agencies and the public. Prior to her Stormwater Strategies role she was the Director of Water Distribution and Transmission for EPCOR. Susan is a Mechanical engineer with over 30 years’ experience with the municipal utility sector. She has also served on numerous industry committees including the Board of Directors for the Geospatial Information Technology Association (GITA) from 2001 to 2007 and was President of GITA in 2006. She currently serves on the Board of Directors for Canadian Water Network.
This document discusses a risk and reliability analysis study of offshore aquaculture ocean plantation systems. The study aims to qualitatively assess system risks and quantify mooring failure probability, forces, and required mooring numbers. Offshore aquaculture is an emerging industry that could help meet growing seaweed demand. However, reliability studies are needed to ensure offshore floating structures can withstand harsh ocean environments. The study will evaluate risks through methods like FMEA, FTA, and HAZID to recommend safety measures and integrity levels for mooring structures.
This document summarizes the initial steps taken toward developing a comparative index of seaport resilience. Data on potential resilience indicators was collected for 23 North Atlantic ports and analyzed using principal component analysis and correlation matrices. While a numerical resilience score was produced, the results were deemed inaccurate due to low quality, inconsistent data. The analysis concluded that further data exploration was needed to refine the methodology and indicators before producing an accurate resilience ranking. The next steps will focus on creating an algorithm to weight indicators and aggregate scores to evaluate ports' ability to prepare for, resist, recover from, and adapt to disturbances.
This document summarizes a study that examined risks affecting the Nigeria East-West Coastal Highway Project. The study involved identifying risks through literature review and surveys of engineering consultants and construction managers. A risk register containing 245 risks was developed. High impact, high probability risks identified include lack of government political will, changes in government, corruption, insufficient design details, incompetent design teams, unsuitable ground conditions, unstable macroeconomic conditions, and flood/coastal surge risks. The majority (66%) of risks were allocated to contractors by respondents, while clients were allocated only 34% despite clients being better able to manage policy, economic, financial, social, environmental and technological risks. The study provides an in-depth risk analysis and risk register
Theoretical Risk Identification within the Nigeria East- West Coastal Highway...civejjour
This document discusses risks associated with the Nigeria East-West Coastal Highway Project. It begins with background on the project and importance. It then reviews risk management approaches in coastal engineering projects, focusing on frequency-based and life cycle approaches. A literature review found few studies analyzing risks in large coastal projects in Nigeria.
The study involved identifying risks through literature review and expert interviews. Key risks identified include lack of government political will, changes in government, corruption, insufficient design details, incompetent design teams, and ground condition issues. A survey further assessed the likelihood and impact of risks, finding high probability for issues like policy/finance risks, design problems, and environmental/social risks.
Determination of safe grade elevation by using hec ras case study mutha rivereSAT Journals
Abstract
Flood is a naturally occurring disastrous event causing damages, losses and destruction to property, life and environment.
Hundred millions of money are spent every year in flood control and flood forecasting. For construction of any structure near
by a water body or in between a water body and for determination of safe levels of construction to protect structure from
flood water, safe grade elevation is required.
In order to evaluate or estimate, mitigate and handle the floods, the present paper presents a methodology for assessment of flood
line to produce safe grade elevation by using River Analysis System made by Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-RAS)
software which is predominately used in the field of hydraulic analysis for floodplain delineation. The general parameter affecting
flood is runoff gauge, discharge, rainfall and land use as spatial data. This paper explains the use of the HEC-RAS for producing
the safe grade elevation for Mutha River from its origin at downstream side of Kadakwasla dam till Mahtre Bridge. It explains the
methodology to construct a table model and how to validate it. The methodology developed can be applied for regions if only
predominant factors affecting the flood in that region is consider, to decide the best economical safe grade elevation for the
building or structure near or on the river and would help in planning priorities prerequisites for managing flood efficiently.
Keywords: Safe Grade elevation, Parameters, Mutha River, Flood, spatial data, Zoning
Determination of safe grade elevation by using hec ras case study mutha rivereSAT Journals
Abstract
Flood is a naturally occurring disastrous event causing damages, losses and destruction to property, life and environment.
Hundred millions of money are spent every year in flood control and flood forecasting. For construction of any structure near
by a water body or in between a water body and for determination of safe levels of construction to protect structure from
flood water, safe grade elevation is required.
In order to evaluate or estimate, mitigate and handle the floods, the present paper presents a methodology for assessment of flood
line to produce safe grade elevation by using River Analysis System made by Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-RAS)
software which is predominately used in the field of hydraulic analysis for floodplain delineation. The general parameter affecting
flood is runoff gauge, discharge, rainfall and land use as spatial data. This paper explains the use of the HEC-RAS for producing
the safe grade elevation for Mutha River from its origin at downstream side of Kadakwasla dam till Mahtre Bridge. It explains the
methodology to construct a table model and how to validate it. The methodology developed can be applied for regions if only
predominant factors affecting the flood in that region is consider, to decide the best economical safe grade elevation for the
building or structure near or on the river and would help in planning priorities prerequisites for managing flood efficiently.
Keywords: Safe Grade elevation, Parameters, Mutha River, Flood, spatial data, Zoning.
This presentations explains the main definitions related to flood risk management. and how to assess the Vulnerability of the society towards flood dangers. and flood risk analysis process. and gives some examples of flood risk assessment applications.
Hazard Modelling and Risk Assessment for Urban Flood ScenarioAlireza Babaee
This thesis examines flood hazard modelling and risk assessment for an urban area in Sondrio, Italy located near a mountain torrent. The scope includes hydraulic modelling of a flood scenario using a two-dimensional finite element model to generate hazard maps, and assessing damage to buildings located in the flooded area. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to account for uncertainties in modelling parameters. The flood hazard scenario was defined as having a 100-year return period. Spatial distributions of water depth and velocity from the hydraulic model were used to estimate probable flood damage according to building type and hazard level.
DISASTER MANAGEMENT OF FLOOD AND ITS RETAINING TECHNIQUESIRJET Journal
This document summarizes a study on flood management techniques and retaining strategies. It discusses the objectives of evaluating flood mitigation effects of a proposed deep channel system in Kolhapur, India. The methodology included selecting an impacted village, assessing flood damage, conducting field surveys of the area, and planning for a diversion channel. The goals are to prevent loss of life and property by diverting excess water during floods through designing and implementing the diversion channel.
Similar to Risk cost benefit analysis of colision aversion model 74 f493 (20)
29 utilisation of simulationfor training enhancementOladokun Sulaiman
This document discusses the utilization of simulation for enhancing training in engineering fields such as maritime studies. It provides an overview of how simulation has been adopted in maritime training to improve competency-based education and meet safety and environmental goals. The document also describes ALAM's simulation facilities, which include a full mission ship simulator and engine room simulator certified by DNV. Simulation is presented as a valuable tool that provides realistic training scenarios to help trainees bridge the gap between theory and practical application. It allows them to learn complex skills in a safe environment.
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This document summarizes a research article about developing a collision aversion cost-benefit analysis model for inland water transportation.
The key points are:
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2) The study develops a predictive cost-benefit analysis model for collision risk aversion on the Langat River in Malaysia to support decision-making for risk mitigation options.
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This document summarizes a research article that presents a collision aversion model and cost benefit analysis for inland water transportation.
The key points are:
1. The model analyzes collision risk for inland waterways by estimating collision probability and quantifying consequences like damage, loss of life, and economic losses.
2. It applies the model to Langat River in Malaysia to estimate historical collision rates and predictive costs for implementing collision avoidance measures.
3. The cost benefit analysis compares costs of safety measures to reduced risks and economic benefits to evaluate options for improving safety and environmental protection for sustainable inland water transportation.
29 utilisation of simulationfor training enhancementOladokun Sulaiman
This document discusses the use of simulation for enhancing training in engineering fields such as maritime education. It argues that simulation provides opportunities for training that traditional instruction cannot by allowing visualization of complex real-world scenarios. The maritime industry has incorporated simulation into its training programs to meet safety and competency standards. The document outlines how simulation is used for bridge operation training in maritime academies. It also discusses international standards and certification for maritime simulation technologies and training programs. Overall, the document advocates for the expanded use of simulation in engineering education and training due to its ability to enhance learning outcomes and competency-based training.
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This document discusses the use of simulation for training enhancement. It begins by providing background on how simulation has evolved as a tool for engineering education and training due to advances in technology. Simulation allows for theoretical modeling of complex real-world systems when direct experimentation is not possible or practical. The document then focuses on how simulation has been adopted within the maritime industry for training ship personnel according to International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations. Simulation provides a safe environment for trainees to practice hazardous situations. While simulation is becoming a core part of maritime competency-based training, the document notes that its integration into programs has generally been ad hoc rather than a fully incorporated part of training objectives and standards.
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This document summarizes a study on the potential for using solar energy as a supplemental power source for the diesel engines on landing craft. The study analyzed the reduction in fuel usage and diesel exhaust that could result from adding solar panels, as well as performing an economic analysis. Data was collected on a specific landing craft's power needs, fuel consumption, and voyage routes. Calculations determined how much power solar panels could provide and how much fuel and money could be saved annually with their addition. An economic analysis included cost estimations, cash flow diagrams, and comparisons of the annual average cost with and without solar panels. The results showed solar panels could reduce the generator's annual output by up to 11,973 kWh, saving up to 3
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This document discusses the use of simulation for training enhancement. It begins by providing background on how simulation has evolved as a tool for engineering education and training due to advances in technology. Simulation allows for theoretical modeling of complex real-world phenomena and systems when direct experimentation is not possible or practical. The document then focuses on how simulation has been incorporated into maritime training programs to enhance competency-based education for ship personnel according to International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulations. Simulation provides a safe environment for trainees to practice hazardous situations. While simulation is becoming a core part of maritime training, the document notes that its integration and standardization could be improved to fully realize its benefits to competency-based education objectives.
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This document provides information about the Journal of Marine Technology and Environment, including:
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Risk cost benefit analysis of colision aversion model 74 f493Oladokun Sulaiman
This document summarizes a research article that proposes a collision aversion cost-benefit analysis model for inland water transportation.
The model aims to analyze collision occurrence scenarios and consequences to reliably and sustainably design collision avoidance systems. Collision is a major risk for inland water transport that can cause environmental damage, injuries, and disruptions. However, collision avoidance systems also require economic sustainability.
The study applies this model to Langat River in Malaysia, collecting data on historical accidents, vessel traffic, and environmental conditions. It then discusses using the model to predict costs for collision aversion and support risk control decisions to develop the waterway in a sustainable manner.
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Viewed csc journals manuscript gas turbine co propulsion power plant for mari...Oladokun Sulaiman
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This document summarizes key points from a research paper on environmental risk compliance for natural gas ship design and operation. It discusses:
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Monitoring and observability aren’t traditionally found in software curriculums and many of us cobble this knowledge together from whatever vendor or ecosystem we were first introduced to and whatever is a part of your current company’s observability stack.
While the dev and ops silo continues to crumble….many organizations still relegate monitoring & observability as the purview of ops, infra and SRE teams. This is a mistake - achieving a highly observable system requires collaboration up and down the stack.
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GraphRAG for Life Science to increase LLM accuracyTomaz Bratanic
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Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 6. In this session, we will cover Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
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What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into integrating generative AI.
2. Understanding how this integration enhances test automation within the UiPath platform
3. Practical demonstrations
4. Exploration of real-world use cases illustrating the benefits of AI-driven test automation for UiPath
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What is generative AI
Test Automation with generative AI and Open AI.
UiPath integration with generative AI
Speaker:
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The presentation aims to deliver a comprehensive overview of AI usage in XML development, providing attendees with the necessary knowledge to make informed decisions. Whether you’re at the early stages of adopting AI or considering integrating it in advanced XML development, this presentation will cover all levels of expertise.
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Risk cost benefit analysis of colision aversion model 74 f493
1. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol.2, No.1, February, 2011
2010-023X
Collision Aversion Model for Inland Water
Transportation: Cost Benefit Analysis Model
O. Sulaiman, A.S.A. Kader, A.H., Saharuddin
information about the distribution of transits during the year,
Abstract—Inland water transportation project is considered or about the joint distribution of ship size, flag particular and
today as one of the mitigation option available for humanity to environmental conditions become derivative from
curb carbon footage. Collision in inland water transportation probabilistic and stochastic estimation in the model. Result
represents the biggest treat to inland water transportation; its
occurrence is very infrequent but has grave consequence that
from such model could further be enhanced through
makes its avoidance a very imperative factor. The nature of the simulation methods as required. This paper discusses cost
threat of collision can be worrisome, as they can lead to loss of benefit analysis to support risk control option for waterways
life, damage to environment, disruption of operation, injuries, predictive collision risk aversion model. [3, 4]
instantaneous and point form release of harmful substance to
water, air and soil and long time ecological impact. However,
the development of complex system like inland water
II. BACKGROUND
transportation and collision avoidance system also needs to
meet economic sustainability for decision requirement related The case study considered for this study is Langat River,
to collision avoidane. This makes analysing and quantifying 220m long navigable inland waterway that has been
occurrence scenarios, consequence of accident very imperative considered underutilized due to lack of use of the water
for reliable and sustainable design for exercise of technocrat
resources up to its capacity. Personal communication, survey
stewardship of safety and safeguard of environmental. This
paper discusses the cost benefit analysis for risk control option and river cruise on Langat River revealed that collision
required for operational, societal and technological change remain the main threat of the waterways despite less traffic in
decision for sustainable inland water transportation system. the waterways.. Data related to historical accidents, transits,
The paper presents the result of predictive cost for collision and environmental conditions are collected. Barge and tug of
aversion aversion for in River Langat waterways development. capacity 5000T and 2000T are currently plying this waterway
at draft of 9 and 15 respectively. Safety associated with small
craft is not taken into account. Figure 1 and 2 channel width
I. INTRODUCTION
parameter required for damage analysis. Vessel width
Collision risk is a product of the probability of the physical parameter plays a very important role in collision scenario
event occurrence as well as losses that include damage, loss and potential damage. Vessel movement for the case under
of life and economic losses. Accident represent risk because consideration currently has no vessel separation system.
they expose vessel owners and operators as well as the public However, there is traffic movement from both inbound and
to the possibility of losses such as vessel, cargo damage, outbound navigation in the channel. The same type of barge
injuries, loss of life, environmental damage, and obstruction size is considered for the estimation work.
of waterways. Collision accident scenarios carry heavy
consequence, thus its occurrence is infrequence. Complete
risk and reliability modelling require frequency estimation, III. SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISK FOR IWT
consequence quantification, uncertainties and cost benefit Risk and reliability based model aim to develop innovative
analysis of the holistic system [1, 2]. Like the frequency and methods and tools to assess operational, accidental and
consequence analysis, collision cost data are hard to come by, catastrophic scenarios. It requires accounting for the human
however, whatever little data that is available should be made element, and integrates them as required into the design
meaningful as much as possible through available tools environment. Risk based design entails the systematic
especially system based predictive tools required for decision integration of risk analysis in the design process. It target
support system necessary mitigation decision for sustainable safety and environment risk prevention and reduction as a
and reliable waterways. Inherently, accident data for design objective. To pursue this activity effectively, an
waterway are few that make probabilistic and stochastic integrated design environment to facilitate and support a
methods the best preliminary method to analyze the risk in holistic risk approach to ship and channel design is needed. A
waterways. Other information relating to channel vessel and total risk approaches which enable appropriate trade off for
environment employed in the risk process, lacking advanced sustainable decision making. Waterways accident
falls under scenario of collision, fire and explosion, flooding,
grounding. Collision carries the highest percentage, more
frequent it is cause by [5,6]:
O. Sulaiman, A.S.A. Kader, A.H., Saharuddin are University Malaysia
Terengganu, 21030, Kuala Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia (email:
i. Loss of propulsion
O.sulaiman@umt.edu.my). ii. Loss of navigation system
24
2. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol.2, No.1, February, 2011
2010-023X
iii. Loss of mooring function and B. Safety and Environmental Risk and Reliability Model
iv. Loss of Other accident from the ship or waterways (SERM)
Risk based design entails the systematic risk analysis in the There is various risk and reliability tools available for risk
design process targeting risk preventive reduction. It based methods that fall under quantitative and qualitative
facilitates support for total risk approach to ship and analysis. Choice of best methods for reliability objective
waterways design. Integrated risk based system design depends on data availability, system type and purpose.
requires the availability of tools to predict the safety, However employment of hybrid of methods of selected tool
performance and system components as well as integration can always give the best of what is expect of system
and hybridisation of safety element and system lifecycle reliability and reduced risk.
phases. The risk process begins with definition of risk which
stands for the measure of the frequency and severity of C. SERM Process
consequence of an unwanted event (damage, energy, oil SERM intend to address risks over the entire life of the
spill). Risk is defined as product of probability of event complex system like IWT system where the risks are high or
occurrence and its consequence [7]. the potential for risk reduction is greatest. SERM address
Risk (R) = Probability (P) X Consequence (C) Eq. quantitatively, accident frequency and consequence of IWT.
3.1 Other risk and reliability components including human
Incidents are unwanted events that may or may not result reliability assessment which is recommended to be carried
to accidents. Necessary measures should be taken according out separately as part of integrated risk process. Other
to magnitude of event and required speed of response should waterways and vessel requirement factors that are considered
be given. Accidents are unwanted events that have either in SERM model are [9]:
immediate or delayed consequences. Immediate i. Construction
consequences variables include injuries, loss of life, property ii. Towing operations and abandonment of ship
damage, and persons in peril. Point form consequences iii. Installation, hook-up and commissioning
variables could result to further loss of life, environmental iv. Development and major modifications
damage and financial costs. Effective risk assessments and Integrated risk based method combined various technique
analysis required three elements highlighted in the relation as required in a process. Table 2 shows available risk based
below. design for techniques. This can be applied for each level of
Risk modeling = Framework + Models + Process risk. Each level can be complimented by applying causal
Eq. 1 analysis (system linkage), expert analysis (expert rating), and
Reliability based verification and validation of system in organizational analysis (Community participation) in the risk
risk analysis should be followed with creation of database process. Figure 3 shows SERM model and components of
and identification of novel technologies required for cost sustainability analysis
implementation of sustainable system.
A. Risk Framework IV. RELIABILITY AND VALIDATION ANALYSIS:
Risk framework provides system description, risk System reliability could be determined through the
identification, criticality, ranking, impact, possible mitigation following analysis [10]:
and high level objective to provide system with what will 1) Standard Deviation: Accident means, variance and
make it reliable. The framework development involves risk standard deviation from normal distribution
identification which requires developing understanding the 2) Stochastic Analysis: Accident average and projection
manner in which accidents, their initiating events and their rates per year calculation can be reliability projection for
consequences occur. Risk framework should be developed to the model. Poison distribution, standards distribution for
provide effective and sound risk assessment and analysis. and binomial distribution could be analyzed for required
The process requires accuracy, balance, and information that prediction and system capability. Poison distribution
meet high scientific standards of measurement. The involves the likelihood of observing k event in time
information should meet requirement to get the science right interval T is poison distribution.
and getting the right science. The process requires targeting 3) Comparing the model behaviour apply to other rivers of
interest of stakeholder including members of the port and relative profile and vessel particular.
waterway community, public officials, regulators and 4) Triangulating analysis of sum of probability of failure
scientists. Transparency and community participation helps from subsystem level failure analysis
ask the right questions of the science and remain important 5) System improvement, for example Traffic Separation
input to the risk process, it help checks the plausibility of Scheme (TSS) Implementation effectiveness, could
assumptions and ensures that synthesis is both balanced and achieve reduction in head collision. This can be done
informative. Employment of quantitative analysis with through integration of normal distribution along width of
required insertion of scientific and natural requirements the waterways and subsequent implementation
provide analytical process to estimate risk levels, and frequency model.
evaluating whether various measures for risk are reduction 6) Comparing the model behaviour applied to other rivers
are effective[8]. of relative profile and vessel particular
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3. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol.2, No.1, February, 2011
2010-023X
V. RISK COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS (RCBA) AND RISK NCAF = GCAF – Change in Benefit Eq.
CONTROL OPTION MODEL PROCESS 5
RCBA is use to deduce mitigation, options selection and ICAF = Eq. 6
proposed need for technology, reliability, new regulations
Where: is Reduction in annual fatality rate, is
and sustainability required to be modeled for effective
mitigation options. RCBA involves quantification of cost Economic benefit resulting from implementing the risk
effectiveness that provides basis for decision making about control option, is Risk reduction in term of averted
identified RCO. This includes the net or gross and number of fatality implied by the risk control option.
discounting values for cost of equipment, redesign and NCAF and GCAF depend on the following criteria:
construction, documentation, training, inspection i. Observation of the willingness to pay to avert a fatality;
maintenance drills, auditing, regulation, reduced commercial ii. Observation of past decisions and the costs involved
used and operational limitation (speed, loads). Benefit could with them;
include reduced probability of fatality, injuries, serenity, iii. Consideration of societal indicators such as the Life
negative effects on health, severity of pollution and economic Quality Index (LQI).
losses. Identified types of cost and benefits for each risk In RCO, It is important to address the following:
control option according to RCBA for the entities which are i. Primary cause or accident scenario, number of accident
influenced by each option can be deduced. And also ii. Number of losses, number of life loss per accident
identification of the cost effectiveness expressed in terms of iii. Cost of fatality per accident, average total cost per
cost per unit risk reduction [11]. 6.1 accident
A. Risk Cost Option (RCO) and Cost Effective Analysis Cost per unit risk reduction (CURR) = =
(CEA)
Eq. 7
Risk control measures are used to group risk into a limited
number of well practical regulatory and capability options. Where 50 minor injuries = 10 serious injuries = 1 life =
Risk Control Option (RCO) aimed to achieve (David, 1996): property or damage = loss or degradation of environment.
i. Preventive: reduce probability of occurrence B. Net Present Value (NPV)
ii. Mitigation: reduce severity of consequence
The NPV can be calculated from:
NPV = + ) (1+ ] Eq. 8
RCO could follow the following generic approach:
i. General approach: controlling the likelihood of Where: t = Time horizon for assessment, starting in year 1,
initiation of accidents. be effective in preventing several Number of year in vessel life time, B = the sum of benefit in
different accident sequences; and period, r = the discount rate per period, Ct- sum of cost in
ii. Distributed approach: control of escalation of accidents period.
and the possibility of influencing the later stages of escalation The estimated risk is represented by:
of other unrelated, accidents. = Accident frequency Na or P (Number of ships per
The economic benefit and risk reduction ascribed to each year) x Consequence C x (Cost of damage per accident) Risk
risk control options is be based on the event trees developed after implementation of safety measure.
during the risk analysis and on considerations on which = Accident frequency P (Number of ships per year) x
accident scenarios would be affected. Estimates on expected Consequence C x (Cost of damage per accident)
downtime and repair costs in case of accidents should be Benefit of reduced risk (R) = - Eq. 9
based on statistics from shipyards or responsible government NPV of the benefit for estimated risk and implemented
institution for repair or construction. safety measure is calculated and ratio of cost of C to benefit B
This CBA is then followed by assessment of the control is compared and expected to be < 1.
options as a function of their effectiveness against risk
reduction. In estimating RCO, the following are taken into C. Implied Cost of Averting Fatality (ICAF)
consideration: ICAF represent estimation of benefit of avoiding damage
i. DALY (Disability Adjusted Life Years) or QALY or fatality. It plays important role in cost benefit analysis of
(Quality Adjusted Life Years) risk. ICAF can be estimated using the following means (DnV,
ii. LQI (Life Quality Index) 2005):
iii. GCAF (Gross Cost of Averting a Fatality) Ronold Life quality index (L) = .
iv. NCAF (Net Cost of Averting a Fatality) Eq. 10
The common criteria used for estimating the cost Where: L = life quality index, = Gross domestic product
effectiveness of risk reduction measures are NCAF and
GCAF which can be calculated with the following equation: per person per year, = Life expectancy (year), w =
Proportion of life spent in economic activities in developing
Gross CAF = Eq. 2
countries is approximately 1/8.
GCAF = Eq. 3 Optimal acceptable ICAF => . .
NET CAF = Eq. 4 Eq. 11
Where, Social cost = NC , t<6000, Social cost =
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4. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol.2, No.1, February, 2011
2010-023X
NC , t>6000, N = number of injuries or fatalities, VI. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
C = Cost of damage per day depends on types and countries, I
A. ALARP risk curve for changing
= daily rate of interest, T = Duration of damage or sick leave
in day, 6000 days is equivalent with a fatality, DNV = US$ 3 Figure 4a shows accident consequence accident energy
million = cost effective ICAF rate = 2GBP million = and accident occurrence frequency against all waterway
parameters, the meeting pint signify the optimum operating
developed country. = = ½ of life expectancy, largest point. But that need to be investigated if it is cost effective.
change in GDP, = - y.(1-w) /2 w.
B. Identified Risk Control Options to Reduce the Collision,
D. Damage or Loss of Life Quantification Grounding and Contact
Ship collision is rare and independent random event in RCO for each collision situation has to be more clearly
time. The event can be considered as poison events where defined. In order to identify new RCO, generated result from
time to first occurrence is exponentially distributed (Emi et al, the analysis of frequency and consequence, cost and benefit
1997). is weighted. It is important to support this with expert rating
f (t)= Eq. 12 to contribute to possible risk prioritisation control options for
IWT of on Sungai Langat. The descriptions of the major
Where: = Annual rate of exceeding of consequence
hazards and corresponding risk control options from the
energy capacity, t = the time to the future loss hazard identification and the results from the risk analysis
= . . . dt Eq. 13 which are summarised could be presented to the group of
Total cost = present value of future cost + Cost experts for further validation. From the risk study, prioritized
RCO that were selected for further evaluation in terms of cost
of protective measure (Cc)
effectiveness assessment are discussed in the next paragraph.
= Co +Cc Eq. 20
Even thus this research is about collision, the impact to
In prioritizing alternative under (RCBA), it is important to collision is not far from contact and grounding collision
address the following: Available concept, consequence scenario. Therefore some of the measure that will be taken
energy capacity (MJ), Return for exeedance T (Year) as well could benefit curbing accident from contact and grounding.
as: The main RCO`S are:
Annual rate of exeedance ( (-) Eq. 14 i.Improved navigational safety.
ii. Redundant propulsion system: two shaft lines.
The cost effective risk reduction measures should be
iii.Required maintenance plan for critical items as well
sought in all areas. It is represented by followed:
design requirement for increase double hull width, increase
Acceptable quotient = Benefit/ (Risk /Cost)
double bottom depth or increase hull strength.
Eq. 15
iv.Human factor and human reliability is quite critical in
E. Sustainability Analysis risk work, it need to be done separately.
Sustainability is defined as development work that meets C. RCO 1: Improved Navigational Safety
needs of the present generation without compromising the
Improved navigational safety can be achieved in a number
ability of the future generations to meet their own needs. It
of different ways. From various identified risk control
requires balancing work between technical, developments,
options, five cost effective risk control options for navigation
economic, community participation, information sharing,
improvement that could potentially reduce the frequency of
environment and safety. Suitability principle calls on all
collision and grounding which are:
fields of human activities to review and adjust the way things
i. TSS
are done. At its 21st session in February 2001, the UNEP
ii. ECDIS (Electronic Chart Display and Information
governing council adopted a decision to investigate the
System), track control system,
feasibility of a “Global Assessment of the State of the Marine
iii. AIS (Automatic Identification System) integration with
Environment” UNEP GC Decision 21/13 [12].
radar
F. Decision Making ivImproved bridge design
Decision making involves discussion of hazard and The risk control options related to navigational safety in
associated risks, review of RCO that keep ALARP curve in the list above might be promising alternatives for Langat
acceptable region, compare and rank RCO based on River. The cost effectiveness of implementing this measure
associated cost and benefit. It also involves specification of for Langat River is evaluated in this study. Hence, the risk
recommendation for decision makers towards beyond control option for improved navigational safety is defined as
compliance preparedness. And rulemaking tools for implementation of one or more of the above alternatives.
regulatory bodies towards measures and contribution for Installation of valve control radar can reduce risk of oil spill
sustainable system design. RCO provide measures, outcome due to overfilling, malfunction of a valve or human failure
of objective comparison of alternative option, and among other causes. The levels of storage tanks on board
subsequent contribution recommendation for sustainable must be continuously monitored since overfilling or product
implementation need of the system intactness, the planet and discharge on deck could have consequences for human life
the right of future generation. and for property.
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5. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol.2, No.1, February, 2011
2010-023X
D. RCO 2: Redundant Propulsion System quantity is allowed between benefit, damage, oils spill,
Machinery failure is a significant causal factor in collision fatality. For this case, based on estimate on the level of
accident. Collision can be avoided if the ships had redundant damage, 1 fatality is considered due to frequency of accident.
propulsion or steering systems. The redundant propulsion Figure 5a show that at minimum energy of 20MJ, less 700,
and steering system must ensure that, irrespective of the 000 RM gross costs will be required to avert fatality.
ship’s loading condition, when a failure in a propulsion or Whereas, at 400 MJ energy of impact 2.07 million RM gross
steering system occurs: cost will be required to avert fatality. Figure 5c shows that
i. The maneuverability of the ship can be maintained. 731000 RM will be ICAF required at minimum accident
ii. A minimum speed can be maintained to keep the ship energy released of 20MJ while, 2.53 million will be the ICAF
under control. of released energy of 453MJ. Figure 5b shows that 1.47
iii. The ship can maintain operation with a redundant million net cost will be required to avert fatality at minimum
propulsion or steering system so that a vessel can ride out the energy of 20MJ, 2,8 million RM will be required to avert
storm or slow navigation in port. fatality at catastrophic accident energy of 453MJ. Figure 7
iv. The propulsion and steering functions are quickly re depicts the cost of losses per accident causal factors.
established. Propulsion failure carry the highest (RM 2,000,000) follow
Cost effectiveness assessment for redundant propulsion by loss of navigation function which require about RM 700,
systems will be achieved by installation of independent 000 and about 400, 000 will be require to fix human error
engines and two shaft lines. The use of all electric propulsion problem. These costs are still acceptable as long as they are
could be a good advantage for optional navigation mode. less than 3 million.
This would also have effect on different hull forms compared All numbers are based on introduction of one RCO.
to ships with single propellers. Introduction of more than one RCO will lead to higher NCAF
and GCAFs for other RCOs addressing the same risks. High
E. RCO 3: Human Capital Development GCAF and NCAF values indicate that the considered RCO is
Discussion with waterways authority revealed that only not a cost effective measure. A negative NCAF indicates that
the captain’s qualification and competency is being screened the RCO is economically beneficial in itself, For example the
and regulated. It is recommended to institutional screen on costs of implementing the RCO are less than the economical
certification and competency of all officers on the vessels and benefit of implementing it. From the Figure, number of
to undergo simulation for normalization of behavior. This accident and loss of life are considered low. According to
risk control option aims at increasing the bridge team’s current practice within IMO and selected criteria for this
ability to handle difficult maneuvering tasks and crisis study, a risk control option will be regarded as cost effective
situations by increased use of simulator training. The effect if it is associated with GCAF ≤ USD 3 million or NCAF ≤
of such training could provide better navigational safety and USD 3 million. Cost effective measures that can be
a reduced risk of collision, grounding and contact events. The demonstrated to have a high potential for risk reduction will
simulator training could be specially designed for particular consequently be recommended for implementation. ICAF
port environments, underwater topography, and particular represent estimation of benefit of avoiding damage or fatality
bridge layouts on specific vessels and would give the and it ply important role in cost benefit analysis of risk. This
participants exercises in handling challenging situations from can be estimated using the following means.
different positions of the bridge team. Important parts in such
exercises might be passage planning, situation awareness and G. Sustainability
operation during malfunction of critical technical equipment. Figure 6 show it cost much more to implement navigation
The risk control option suggested herein goes beyond the and machineries failure system. The maximum cost is
basic training requirements defined by IMO’s International indicated by the point where the total cost (Ct), the present
Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and value of loss, and NPV coincide, about RM30 million, where
Watch keeping for Seafarers (STCW), (IMO, 1996). the cost of unit risk reduction still stand at about RM2000,
000. Figure 222 shows cross plot of the risk level and optimal
F. Sustainability Analysis and Cost Effectiveness of cost require for the channel maintenance. From this Figure it
Selected RCOs is observed by spending more than 50Million, high speed
Risk Cost Benefit Analysis to deduce and proposed need craft or freighter of 35 knot will be able to navigate on Langat
for new regulations based on mitigation and options selection. River in future. According to recent discussion with Langat
RCBA involve quantification of cost effectiveness that River, a decision is already made no pass the bridge over the
provides basis for decision making about RCO identified, river. Therefore for Langat River that need to be included in
this include the net or gross and discounting values. analysis, but benefit could be quantify into cost.
Consideration is also given to cost of equipment, redesign
and construction, documentation, training, inspection REFERENCES
maintenance, auditing, regulation, reduced commercial used, [1] DnV. Formal Safety Assessment of cruise navigation. DNV Report No.
operational limitation like speed and loads. Benefit could 2003-0277, Det Norske Veritas, Hø vik, Norway. Norway, 2005
include reduced probability of fatality, injuries, serenity, [2] Kite, Powell, H. L., D. Jin N. M. Patrikalis, J. Jebsen, V.
Papakonstantinou. Formulation of a Model for Ship Transit Risk. MIT
negative effects on health, severity of pollution, economic Sea Grant Technical Report. Cambridge, MA. 1996. 96-19.
losses. [3] Skjong, R., Vanem, E., Endresen, Ø. Risk. Evaluation Criteria.
Cost work is model in different way, and translation of SAFEDOR report D. 2006.
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[4] Lempert, R. J., S. W. Popper and S. C. Bankes. Shaping the Next One [8] Axtell, R., R. Axelrod, J. Epstein and M. D. Cohen. Aligning
Hundred Years: New Methods for Quantitative Long-Term Policy Simulation Models: A Case Study and Results. Computational and
Analysis. RAND:Santa Monica, CA. 2003. pp. 187. Mathematical Organization Theory. 1996. pp123-141.
[5] Roach, P.J. Verification and Validation in Computational Science and [9] Yacov T. Haimes. Risk Modeling, Assessment and Management. John
Engineering. Hermosa Publishers. Albuquerque. NM, 1998. Wiley & Sons, INC. Canada. 1998. pp. 159 - 187.
[6] Coleman, H.W., W.G. Steele, Jr. Experimentation and Uncertainty [10] N. Soares, C. A. P. Teixeira. Risk Assessment in Maritime
Analysis for Engineers. John Wiley & Sons. 1989. Transportation. Reliability Engineering and System Safety. 74:3, 2001,
[7] Kitamura, O. FEM approach to the simulation of collision and 299-309.
grounding damage. In Proceedings of 2nd International Conference on [11] Fujii, Y. and Mizuki, N. Design of VTS system for water with bridges.
Collision and Grounding of Ships July 2001, pp. 125-136 (Maritime In Proceedings of Ship Collision Analysis (Eds H. Gluver and D.
Engineering, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Technical Olsen), 1998, pp. 177-190 (Balkema, Rotterdam).
University of Denmark). [12] Camm, Jeffrey D. & Evans, James R. Management Science &Decision
Technology. South-Western College Publishing, 2000.
Figure 1: Langat vessel particular Figure 2: Accidents at Langat
TABLE 1: RISK BASED DESIGN TECHNIQUES
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2010-023X
a.Serm model b. Cost benefit sustainability analysis
Figure 3: Risk and Reliability model flowcharts
Fa
1.E+00 1.E+00
6
6
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
9
9
9
9
9
9
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
+0
2E
3E
1E
4E
5E
5E
0E
0E
5E
2E
5E
0E
6E
2E
9E
1.
9.
3.
7.
1.
2.
4.
6.
8.
1.
1.
2.
2.
3.
3.
1.E-01
1.E-01
Fa :-Expected number of collIsion per year
Fa :-Expected number of collIsion per year
1.E-02
1.E-02
1.E-03
1.E-03
1.E-04
1.E-04
1.E-05
1.E-05
1.E-06
V=+1 v=+1
BLWM Nm=+1
Nm=+1
1.E-06 1.E-07
Ca :- Accident Energy
Figure 4: Accident energy Vs consequence energy
Figure 5: a. NCAF b.ICAF c.GCAF
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8. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, Vol.2, No.1, February, 2011
2010-023X
Figure 6: Cost of losses per accident causal factors, Figure: 20: RCO`s analysis for total cost of damage
Co Cc & Ct vs Fa
250000000
200000000
150000000
Cost
Co
Cc
100000000
Ct
50000000
0
14 5
51 5
89 5
29 5
71 5
16 5
62 5
10 5
60 5
13 5
67 5
23 5
81 5
41 5
00 5
07 4
13 4
20 4
27 4
34 4
42 4
49 4
57 4
65 4
4
3. -0
3. -0
3. -0
4. -0
4. -0
5. -0
5. -0
6. -0
6. -0
7. -0
7. -0
8. -0
8. -0
9. -0
1. -0
1. -0
1. -0
1. -0
1. -0
1. -0
1. -0
1. -0
1. -0
1. -0
-0
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
E
80
2.
Figure 7: Risk cost benefit analysis
31