This document discusses relaunching the European Union's Eastern Partnership program to strengthen relations with countries in Eastern Europe. It argues that the EU should take a more ambitious approach by:
1. Creating an Energy Union that includes some Eastern Partnership countries to enhance energy security.
2. Launching a public relations campaign to increase support for the EU among citizens in these countries, using visa liberalization and alternative media.
3. Designing country-specific programs that address vulnerabilities like energy security, governance, and infrastructure, rather than assuming all countries must adopt the EU model.
4. Gaining U.S. support to embed the Eastern Partnership within a new Transatlantic Partnership for
Consensus against all odds: explaining the persistence of EU sanctions on RussiaPaulina Pospieszna
In response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine in 2014, the EU introduced
sanctions on Moscow. Despite increasing polarisation among member
states after imposition, the sanctions package was consistently
renewed. How can sanctions persistence be explained? While scholarly
accounts highlight German leadership, commitment to norms,
and policymakers’ engagement, the EU’s ability to uphold the
sanctions in the face of uneven support among member states
remains puzzling. With the help of a two-level game framework,
according to which actors make decisions based on the interplay
between the domestic and international levels, we argue that the
interaction between the Council and domestic politics helped sustaining
the consensus. To illustrate this dynamic, in an exploration
of domestic factions in Spain and Poland, two member states
displaying opposite attitudes towards Russia, we identify the presence
of at least one actor whose preference deviates from the core,
thereby facilitating consensus.
If you are interested in the development of the NIS. Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest countries of the new independent states of the former SU (the level of extreme poverty 4.4%). The poverty in the country is reduced not only insufficient income and consumption, but is expressed in the absence of access to decent living conditions and to social services. The submission examines the current situation in the country, the issues of financing for development, national priorities of Kyrgyzstan and the priorities of major multi and bilateral donors. Particular emphasis is given to the partnership Kyrgyz Republic with Russia.
Adjustments in Latvia and Greece: Lessons for EuropeLatvijas Banka
Statement by Gabriele Giudice, Head of Unit, ECFIN.G3: Greece, European Commission at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
Presentation of Igor Burakovsky at NATO Parliamentary Assembly 95th Rose-Roth Seminar In Cooperation with the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Towards a Secure and Stable Ukraine and Black Sea Region.
Session “Supporting Growth in the Black Sea Region”
Kyiv, Ukraine, 3-5 July 2017
Places like Singapore, Boston, Bangalore, Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, and others are known as leaders in innovation, but when it comes to building the knowledge economy, the Gulf has become one of the most ambitious regions in the world.
A decade ago, the consensus from outside the region was that Middle Eastern countries, including those in the Gulf, were a long way from developing knowledge economies— defined as economies that combine advanced research and development, entrepreneurialism, and creative thinking into innovative, wealth-generating enterprises. Fast-forward to 2015, and many Arab Gulf countries have become well known for their attempts at building knowledge economies, for instance through innovation clusters such as Abu Dhabi's Masdar City, Dubai's TechnoPark, Qatar's Science and Technology Park, and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. Through these and other efforts, Gulf countries have invested billions of dollars in dozens of initiatives to co-locate the sources of innovation—research labs, venture capital, entrepreneurs, high-technology companies, and educational institutions, in hopes of building globally renowned knowledge economies.
In Brainstorming the Gulf: Innovation and the Knowledge Economy in the GCC, the report's author, Peter Engelke, Senior Fellow for the Strategic Foresight Initiative in the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, highlights the successes that Gulf states have enjoyed to date and addresses the major hurdles to sustaining and expanding these successes. While all signs point to the staying power of Arab Gulf leadership's long-term commitment to the knowledge economy, the harder part will be sustaining the knowledge economy's soft infrastructure—the dimension of entrepreneurial culture involving creativity, expression, inclusion, disruption, and borrowing from global cultural flows. If talented people are at the core of the innovation process, government policy in the Gulf ought to focus as much on the creation of dynamic and livable places in order to attract and retain the best talent from all over the world. As Arab Gulf states have already discovered, this pathway is disruptive, bringing with it significant social consequences.
Consensus against all odds: explaining the persistence of EU sanctions on RussiaPaulina Pospieszna
In response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine in 2014, the EU introduced
sanctions on Moscow. Despite increasing polarisation among member
states after imposition, the sanctions package was consistently
renewed. How can sanctions persistence be explained? While scholarly
accounts highlight German leadership, commitment to norms,
and policymakers’ engagement, the EU’s ability to uphold the
sanctions in the face of uneven support among member states
remains puzzling. With the help of a two-level game framework,
according to which actors make decisions based on the interplay
between the domestic and international levels, we argue that the
interaction between the Council and domestic politics helped sustaining
the consensus. To illustrate this dynamic, in an exploration
of domestic factions in Spain and Poland, two member states
displaying opposite attitudes towards Russia, we identify the presence
of at least one actor whose preference deviates from the core,
thereby facilitating consensus.
If you are interested in the development of the NIS. Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest countries of the new independent states of the former SU (the level of extreme poverty 4.4%). The poverty in the country is reduced not only insufficient income and consumption, but is expressed in the absence of access to decent living conditions and to social services. The submission examines the current situation in the country, the issues of financing for development, national priorities of Kyrgyzstan and the priorities of major multi and bilateral donors. Particular emphasis is given to the partnership Kyrgyz Republic with Russia.
Adjustments in Latvia and Greece: Lessons for EuropeLatvijas Banka
Statement by Gabriele Giudice, Head of Unit, ECFIN.G3: Greece, European Commission at the Conference "Have We Learnt Anything from the Crisis?" in Riga, Latvia. 17.10.2014
Presentation of Igor Burakovsky at NATO Parliamentary Assembly 95th Rose-Roth Seminar In Cooperation with the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Towards a Secure and Stable Ukraine and Black Sea Region.
Session “Supporting Growth in the Black Sea Region”
Kyiv, Ukraine, 3-5 July 2017
Places like Singapore, Boston, Bangalore, Pittsburgh, Silicon Valley, and others are known as leaders in innovation, but when it comes to building the knowledge economy, the Gulf has become one of the most ambitious regions in the world.
A decade ago, the consensus from outside the region was that Middle Eastern countries, including those in the Gulf, were a long way from developing knowledge economies— defined as economies that combine advanced research and development, entrepreneurialism, and creative thinking into innovative, wealth-generating enterprises. Fast-forward to 2015, and many Arab Gulf countries have become well known for their attempts at building knowledge economies, for instance through innovation clusters such as Abu Dhabi's Masdar City, Dubai's TechnoPark, Qatar's Science and Technology Park, and Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. Through these and other efforts, Gulf countries have invested billions of dollars in dozens of initiatives to co-locate the sources of innovation—research labs, venture capital, entrepreneurs, high-technology companies, and educational institutions, in hopes of building globally renowned knowledge economies.
In Brainstorming the Gulf: Innovation and the Knowledge Economy in the GCC, the report's author, Peter Engelke, Senior Fellow for the Strategic Foresight Initiative in the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, highlights the successes that Gulf states have enjoyed to date and addresses the major hurdles to sustaining and expanding these successes. While all signs point to the staying power of Arab Gulf leadership's long-term commitment to the knowledge economy, the harder part will be sustaining the knowledge economy's soft infrastructure—the dimension of entrepreneurial culture involving creativity, expression, inclusion, disruption, and borrowing from global cultural flows. If talented people are at the core of the innovation process, government policy in the Gulf ought to focus as much on the creation of dynamic and livable places in order to attract and retain the best talent from all over the world. As Arab Gulf states have already discovered, this pathway is disruptive, bringing with it significant social consequences.
This report is the result of a series of brainstorming sessions that took place between the summer of 2013 and the winter of 2014-2015, and between American, Russian, and European experts. The teams were led by Ellen Tauscher, the Vice Chair of the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and the former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, and Igor Ivanov, the president of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and former Foreign Minister of Russia, in an effort to keep the dialogue open and frank at a challenging time for European security. Not surprisingly, as events in Ukraine unravelled the post-Cold War security order, it proved impossible to narrow the differences and develop a common, action-oriented approach to the challenge of rebuilding the European security order. The report, a project of the Atlantic Council, the European Leadership Network (ELN), and RIAC is focused instead on the necessary first step of listening to each other and reflecting on the significant differences in the Western and Russian approaches. Discussions focused on gaining clarity on the interests at stake, from the US, European, and Russian perspectives, in order to better define whether and where common interests may still lie and how best to advance them. The report clearly points to the fact that managing the differences in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis will continue to require significant efforts on the part of decision-makers, experts, officials, international organizations, and will take time and strategic patience.
Setting the Stage for Peace in Syria: The Case for a Syrian National Stabiliz...atlanticcouncil
In Setting the Stage for Peace in Syria: The Case for a Syrian National Stabilization Force, Frederic C. Hof of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Bassma Kodmani of the Arab Reform Initiative, and Jeffrey White of the Washington Institute, present a new way forward—a sort of train-and-equip on steroids—the Syrian National Stabilization Force (SNSF).
If ever a turning point seemed inevitable in Pakistan’s militia policy, it was in the aftermath of the Peshawar school massacre in December 2014. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) killed 152 people, 133 of them children, in the bloodiest terrorist attack in Pakistan’s history. The carnage sparked an unprecedented national dialogue about the costs and contradictions of the Pakistani political and military establishment’s reliance on violent proxies, such as the Afghan Taliban (from which the TTP originates), for security.
Why does Pakistan continue to differentiate between “good” and “bad” militias in the face of the Peshawar massacre? What are the costs of playing the good-bad militia game? What can be done to end Pakistan’s dependency on armed nonstate groups? In “Reimagining Pakistan’s Militia Policy,” Visiting Assistant Professor of Government at Skidmore College and US-Pakistan Exchange Program Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, argues that Pakistan’s unwillingness to crack down on all terrorist groups is more a product of cold calculation than ideological shortsightedness. Understanding Pakistan’s close relationship with militias requires recognizing the strategic logic through which many states outsource violence.
Join the Atlantic Council's Cyber Statecraft Initiative on February 18 from 3:00 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. for a discussion on the challenges to information sharing and innovative ways to break the logjam.
Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulfatlanticcouncil
A strategic review of US defense strategy and force posture in the Gulf is long overdue. In Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf, Bilal Y. Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, and Barry Pavel, Vice President and Director of the Scowcroft Center, analyze how historic changes and developing trends in Washington, the Middle East, and across the globe—along with Iran’s nuclear ambitions and asymmetric threat—are all affecting US defense strategy in the Gulf.
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the Uni...atlanticcouncil
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do, a joint report by the Atlantic Council, Brookings Institution, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, argues that to deter further aggression by the Kremlin and its surrogates, Ukraine urgently needs significant military assistance. Drawing on discussions with senior NATO and US officials, the authors—Ivo Daalder, Michele Flournoy, John Herbst, Jan Lodal, Steven Pifer, James Stavridis, Strobe Talbott, and Charles Wald—argue that in order to enable Ukraine to defend itself, the US government should provide Ukraine $3 billion in both lethal and nonlethal military assistance over the next three years.
If President Vladimir Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine is not stopped, the West can expect further Kremlin provocations elsewhere. Although Western economic sanctions have made it clear that the price of Russian aggression will be the Russian economy, these measures have not been able to curb the Kremlin’s revisionist foreign policy. Providing US military assistance to Ukraine is critical to the country’s defense and to preserving peace and stability in Europe, Eurasia, and beyond.
The solutions for socioeconomic development are no longer only in the public sector. Latin America has changed dramatically over the last decade, and the private sector can play an increasingly important role in the region’s progress. That’s where social impact investing comes in—a way that investors can make money while doing social good.
The White House has appointed a social innovation czar and the Inter-American Development Bank is doing work every day in this expanding arena. Is social impact investing one of the keys that will finally unlock the region’s intractable inequality?
In this new Latin America Center analysis, released today, Adrienne Arsht Center Senior Non-Resident Fellow Gabriel Zinny dissects how businesses, governments, and multilateral institutions can better provide goods and services to the underserved while making money.
Read this and key recommendations for accelerating the sector here:
• Formalize it. A clear, market-based legal system enforced by a solid judiciary branch is fundamental to attracting impact investments.
• Seed it. Governments should subsidize a measure of the often-lacking venture-stage capital for projects, especially when the entrepreneurs come from less-affluent communities.
• Decentralize it. Local governments should be viewed as public sector partners as they often have more flexibility to spur private social enterprise.
• Read more here…
Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transitionatlanticcouncil
We have entered a new era in world history, a post-post-Cold War era that holds both great promise and great peril for the United States, its allies, and everyone else. We now can call this a "Westphalian-Plus" world, in which nation-states will have to engage on two distinct levels: dealing with other nation-states as before, and dealing with a vast array of important nonstate actors. This era calls for a new approach to national strategy called "dynamic stability."
The authors of this paper—Atlantic Council Vice President and Scowcroft Center Director Barry Pavel and Senior Fellow Peter Engelke, with the help of Assistant Director Alex Ward—kick off the Atlantic Council Strategy Paper series by telling the United States to seek stability while leveraging dynamic trends at the same time. The central task facing America is "to harness change in order to save the system," meaning the preservation of the rules-based international order that has benefited billions around the world, including Americans themselves, since 1945. Within its pages, the paper outlines the components of strategy in a swiftly-changing world.
Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontationatlanticcouncil
Since August 2014, the US-led air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has successfully inflicted casualties on ISIS and weakened its oil revenues. However, the same efforts have also accelerated the rise of the Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the near-collapse of nationalist rebel forces.
In "Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontation," Faysal Itani of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East details the unintended consequences of the coalition air campaign and proposes a revised US strategy. He argues that the United States can effectively assist nationalist insurgents to defeat ISIS and the Nusra Front by enabling them to compete with and contain these groups before ultimately confronting them.
Itani writes that the US-led campaign thus far and the train-and-equip initiative set to begin next month undermine and weaken nationalist rebel forces. He criticizes these efforts for failing to provide sufficient support to the rebel forces, while directing them to target ISIS instead of the regime. Meanwhile, the Nusra Front and other jihadist organizations have greater resources and have been effective in targeting the Assad regime. As such, nationalist rebel forces and local populations have increasingly aligned with the Nusra Front and even tolerate ISIS in order to protect themselves against regime violence, criminality, and chaos.
Itani's proposed US strategy offers a practical and workable response to the rise of jihadists groups in Syria; this revised strategy seeks to support rebel forces to compete with the Nusra Front for popular support and to take control of the insurgency, contain ISIS, and build capacity for an eventual offensive against the jihadists. This approach will build on positive results in southern Syria by significantly increasing direct financial and material support and training for vetted nationalist groups that have already shown significant success. Simultaneously, in the north the campaign can provide sufficient material support to nationalist forces while expanding coalition air strikes to target ISIS's frontlines, allowing the nationalist insurgency to defend and govern territory. Only once nationalist insurgent forces have successfully competed with the Nusra Front and contained ISIS can they confront and ultimately defeat the jihadist groups in Syria.
The Healthcare Internet of Things: Rewards and Risksatlanticcouncil
In The Healthcare Internet of Things: Rewards and Risks, a collaboration between Intel Security and Atlantic Council's Cyber Statecraft Initiative at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, the report's authors—Jason Healey, Neal Pollard, and Beau Woods—draw attention to the delicate balance between the promise of a new age of technology and society's ability to secure the technological and communications foundations of these innovative devices.
The Atlantic Council, in partnership with NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), held the 4th annual Young Professionals Day (YP Day) in Washington, DC, on March 24. The event featured a full-day, outcome-oriented, strategic design thinking exercise with sixty young professionals representing twenty-four of NATO's twenty-eight member nations. Delegates collaborated to produce a list of creative solutions to pressing challenges NATO faces, ranging from how to address hybrid warfare and threats on NATO's southern flank, to how NATO can encourage innovation and deliver on the promises from the 2014 Wales Summit.
The NATO Young Professionals Day Report includes detailed descriptions of the top fifteen recommendations produced by delegates. Delegates' recommendations included creative and out-of-the box concepts, such as the creation of an "Innovation CEO" position within NATO with substantial powers to experiment with new policies. The group also suggested developing a dramatized HBO style series about the history of NATO to increase public awareness and improve the alliance's public approval; fostering partnerships with venture capital and the defense industry to develop new technologies and create common standards; and the deployment of an elite, rapid response force in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region that includes personnel from NATO partner countries in the south, to leverage local expertise. Details on these recommendations and more can be found in the full report available online here:
President Barack Obama's summit meeting with Gulf leaders at Camp David on May 14 will end in failure if the administration does not propose a substantial upgrade in US-Gulf security relations that is as bold and strategically significant as the nuclear agreement–and likely formal deal–with Iran.
While the summit will not suddenly eliminate mistrust and resolve all differences, it presents an historic opportunity to put back on track a decades-old US-Gulf partnership that has served both sides and the region well, yet lately has experienced deep turbulence. Failure to strengthen these ties will have consequences, the most dramatic of which could be the acceleration of the regional order's collapse.
In a March 2015 Atlantic Council report entitled Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf, we made the case for a mutual defense treaty between the United States and willing Arab Gulf partners. In this issue in focus, we offer a more comprehensive and detailed assessment of the risks, concerns, benefits, and opportunities that would be inherent in such a treaty. We recommend a gradualist approach for significantly upgrading US-Gulf security relations that effectively reduces the risks and maximizes the benefits of more formal US security commitments to willing Arab Gulf states.
Russia and the European Union are neighbours. Located on the same continent side by side, we share a common history and culture, and the same religious, philosophical and civilizational roots. We are building predominantly the same type of secular society based on a socially oriented economy and public representation.
Russians have decisively broken with the past division of the world into two opposing camps. We are no longer separated by the deepest insurmountable gap of antagonistically incompatible ideologies. The threat of nuclear war, on the brink of which we were balancing for some time, has been eliminated.
Russia and the EU follow similar strategic goals. Both sides strive for peace, stability, security, prosperity, sustainable development, high standards of living and happiness for their citizens.
This report is the result of a series of brainstorming sessions that took place between the summer of 2013 and the winter of 2014-2015, and between American, Russian, and European experts. The teams were led by Ellen Tauscher, the Vice Chair of the Atlantic Council's Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security and the former US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security, and Igor Ivanov, the president of Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and former Foreign Minister of Russia, in an effort to keep the dialogue open and frank at a challenging time for European security. Not surprisingly, as events in Ukraine unravelled the post-Cold War security order, it proved impossible to narrow the differences and develop a common, action-oriented approach to the challenge of rebuilding the European security order. The report, a project of the Atlantic Council, the European Leadership Network (ELN), and RIAC is focused instead on the necessary first step of listening to each other and reflecting on the significant differences in the Western and Russian approaches. Discussions focused on gaining clarity on the interests at stake, from the US, European, and Russian perspectives, in order to better define whether and where common interests may still lie and how best to advance them. The report clearly points to the fact that managing the differences in the aftermath of the Ukrainian crisis will continue to require significant efforts on the part of decision-makers, experts, officials, international organizations, and will take time and strategic patience.
Setting the Stage for Peace in Syria: The Case for a Syrian National Stabiliz...atlanticcouncil
In Setting the Stage for Peace in Syria: The Case for a Syrian National Stabilization Force, Frederic C. Hof of the Atlantic Council’s Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, Bassma Kodmani of the Arab Reform Initiative, and Jeffrey White of the Washington Institute, present a new way forward—a sort of train-and-equip on steroids—the Syrian National Stabilization Force (SNSF).
If ever a turning point seemed inevitable in Pakistan’s militia policy, it was in the aftermath of the Peshawar school massacre in December 2014. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) killed 152 people, 133 of them children, in the bloodiest terrorist attack in Pakistan’s history. The carnage sparked an unprecedented national dialogue about the costs and contradictions of the Pakistani political and military establishment’s reliance on violent proxies, such as the Afghan Taliban (from which the TTP originates), for security.
Why does Pakistan continue to differentiate between “good” and “bad” militias in the face of the Peshawar massacre? What are the costs of playing the good-bad militia game? What can be done to end Pakistan’s dependency on armed nonstate groups? In “Reimagining Pakistan’s Militia Policy,” Visiting Assistant Professor of Government at Skidmore College and US-Pakistan Exchange Program Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, argues that Pakistan’s unwillingness to crack down on all terrorist groups is more a product of cold calculation than ideological shortsightedness. Understanding Pakistan’s close relationship with militias requires recognizing the strategic logic through which many states outsource violence.
Join the Atlantic Council's Cyber Statecraft Initiative on February 18 from 3:00 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. for a discussion on the challenges to information sharing and innovative ways to break the logjam.
Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulfatlanticcouncil
A strategic review of US defense strategy and force posture in the Gulf is long overdue. In Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf, Bilal Y. Saab, Resident Senior Fellow for Middle East Security at the Atlantic Council’s Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, and Barry Pavel, Vice President and Director of the Scowcroft Center, analyze how historic changes and developing trends in Washington, the Middle East, and across the globe—along with Iran’s nuclear ambitions and asymmetric threat—are all affecting US defense strategy in the Gulf.
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the Uni...atlanticcouncil
Preserving Ukraine’s Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do, a joint report by the Atlantic Council, Brookings Institution, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, argues that to deter further aggression by the Kremlin and its surrogates, Ukraine urgently needs significant military assistance. Drawing on discussions with senior NATO and US officials, the authors—Ivo Daalder, Michele Flournoy, John Herbst, Jan Lodal, Steven Pifer, James Stavridis, Strobe Talbott, and Charles Wald—argue that in order to enable Ukraine to defend itself, the US government should provide Ukraine $3 billion in both lethal and nonlethal military assistance over the next three years.
If President Vladimir Putin’s military intervention in Ukraine is not stopped, the West can expect further Kremlin provocations elsewhere. Although Western economic sanctions have made it clear that the price of Russian aggression will be the Russian economy, these measures have not been able to curb the Kremlin’s revisionist foreign policy. Providing US military assistance to Ukraine is critical to the country’s defense and to preserving peace and stability in Europe, Eurasia, and beyond.
The solutions for socioeconomic development are no longer only in the public sector. Latin America has changed dramatically over the last decade, and the private sector can play an increasingly important role in the region’s progress. That’s where social impact investing comes in—a way that investors can make money while doing social good.
The White House has appointed a social innovation czar and the Inter-American Development Bank is doing work every day in this expanding arena. Is social impact investing one of the keys that will finally unlock the region’s intractable inequality?
In this new Latin America Center analysis, released today, Adrienne Arsht Center Senior Non-Resident Fellow Gabriel Zinny dissects how businesses, governments, and multilateral institutions can better provide goods and services to the underserved while making money.
Read this and key recommendations for accelerating the sector here:
• Formalize it. A clear, market-based legal system enforced by a solid judiciary branch is fundamental to attracting impact investments.
• Seed it. Governments should subsidize a measure of the often-lacking venture-stage capital for projects, especially when the entrepreneurs come from less-affluent communities.
• Decentralize it. Local governments should be viewed as public sector partners as they often have more flexibility to spur private social enterprise.
• Read more here…
Dynamic Stability: US Strategy for a World in Transitionatlanticcouncil
We have entered a new era in world history, a post-post-Cold War era that holds both great promise and great peril for the United States, its allies, and everyone else. We now can call this a "Westphalian-Plus" world, in which nation-states will have to engage on two distinct levels: dealing with other nation-states as before, and dealing with a vast array of important nonstate actors. This era calls for a new approach to national strategy called "dynamic stability."
The authors of this paper—Atlantic Council Vice President and Scowcroft Center Director Barry Pavel and Senior Fellow Peter Engelke, with the help of Assistant Director Alex Ward—kick off the Atlantic Council Strategy Paper series by telling the United States to seek stability while leveraging dynamic trends at the same time. The central task facing America is "to harness change in order to save the system," meaning the preservation of the rules-based international order that has benefited billions around the world, including Americans themselves, since 1945. Within its pages, the paper outlines the components of strategy in a swiftly-changing world.
Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontationatlanticcouncil
Since August 2014, the US-led air campaign against the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) has successfully inflicted casualties on ISIS and weakened its oil revenues. However, the same efforts have also accelerated the rise of the Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, and the near-collapse of nationalist rebel forces.
In "Defeating the Jihadists in Syria: Competition before Confrontation," Faysal Itani of the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East details the unintended consequences of the coalition air campaign and proposes a revised US strategy. He argues that the United States can effectively assist nationalist insurgents to defeat ISIS and the Nusra Front by enabling them to compete with and contain these groups before ultimately confronting them.
Itani writes that the US-led campaign thus far and the train-and-equip initiative set to begin next month undermine and weaken nationalist rebel forces. He criticizes these efforts for failing to provide sufficient support to the rebel forces, while directing them to target ISIS instead of the regime. Meanwhile, the Nusra Front and other jihadist organizations have greater resources and have been effective in targeting the Assad regime. As such, nationalist rebel forces and local populations have increasingly aligned with the Nusra Front and even tolerate ISIS in order to protect themselves against regime violence, criminality, and chaos.
Itani's proposed US strategy offers a practical and workable response to the rise of jihadists groups in Syria; this revised strategy seeks to support rebel forces to compete with the Nusra Front for popular support and to take control of the insurgency, contain ISIS, and build capacity for an eventual offensive against the jihadists. This approach will build on positive results in southern Syria by significantly increasing direct financial and material support and training for vetted nationalist groups that have already shown significant success. Simultaneously, in the north the campaign can provide sufficient material support to nationalist forces while expanding coalition air strikes to target ISIS's frontlines, allowing the nationalist insurgency to defend and govern territory. Only once nationalist insurgent forces have successfully competed with the Nusra Front and contained ISIS can they confront and ultimately defeat the jihadist groups in Syria.
The Healthcare Internet of Things: Rewards and Risksatlanticcouncil
In The Healthcare Internet of Things: Rewards and Risks, a collaboration between Intel Security and Atlantic Council's Cyber Statecraft Initiative at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security, the report's authors—Jason Healey, Neal Pollard, and Beau Woods—draw attention to the delicate balance between the promise of a new age of technology and society's ability to secure the technological and communications foundations of these innovative devices.
The Atlantic Council, in partnership with NATO Allied Command Transformation (ACT), held the 4th annual Young Professionals Day (YP Day) in Washington, DC, on March 24. The event featured a full-day, outcome-oriented, strategic design thinking exercise with sixty young professionals representing twenty-four of NATO's twenty-eight member nations. Delegates collaborated to produce a list of creative solutions to pressing challenges NATO faces, ranging from how to address hybrid warfare and threats on NATO's southern flank, to how NATO can encourage innovation and deliver on the promises from the 2014 Wales Summit.
The NATO Young Professionals Day Report includes detailed descriptions of the top fifteen recommendations produced by delegates. Delegates' recommendations included creative and out-of-the box concepts, such as the creation of an "Innovation CEO" position within NATO with substantial powers to experiment with new policies. The group also suggested developing a dramatized HBO style series about the history of NATO to increase public awareness and improve the alliance's public approval; fostering partnerships with venture capital and the defense industry to develop new technologies and create common standards; and the deployment of an elite, rapid response force in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region that includes personnel from NATO partner countries in the south, to leverage local expertise. Details on these recommendations and more can be found in the full report available online here:
President Barack Obama's summit meeting with Gulf leaders at Camp David on May 14 will end in failure if the administration does not propose a substantial upgrade in US-Gulf security relations that is as bold and strategically significant as the nuclear agreement–and likely formal deal–with Iran.
While the summit will not suddenly eliminate mistrust and resolve all differences, it presents an historic opportunity to put back on track a decades-old US-Gulf partnership that has served both sides and the region well, yet lately has experienced deep turbulence. Failure to strengthen these ties will have consequences, the most dramatic of which could be the acceleration of the regional order's collapse.
In a March 2015 Atlantic Council report entitled Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf, we made the case for a mutual defense treaty between the United States and willing Arab Gulf partners. In this issue in focus, we offer a more comprehensive and detailed assessment of the risks, concerns, benefits, and opportunities that would be inherent in such a treaty. We recommend a gradualist approach for significantly upgrading US-Gulf security relations that effectively reduces the risks and maximizes the benefits of more formal US security commitments to willing Arab Gulf states.
Russia and the European Union are neighbours. Located on the same continent side by side, we share a common history and culture, and the same religious, philosophical and civilizational roots. We are building predominantly the same type of secular society based on a socially oriented economy and public representation.
Russians have decisively broken with the past division of the world into two opposing camps. We are no longer separated by the deepest insurmountable gap of antagonistically incompatible ideologies. The threat of nuclear war, on the brink of which we were balancing for some time, has been eliminated.
Russia and the EU follow similar strategic goals. Both sides strive for peace, stability, security, prosperity, sustainable development, high standards of living and happiness for their citizens.
Highway to hell? European Union‘s Eastern Policy from a Civilian power persp...Adam Mickiewicz University
Jarosław Jańczak, Michael Meimeth, 2015, Highway to hell? – European Union’s Eastern Policy from a civilizing power perspective, “Centre international de formation européenne CIFE Policy Paper”, No. 7, pp. 10.
Statement delivered by Maksym Khylko at the International Conference “Autocratical challenge for the European project – what to do and not to do,” held by the Charter’97 Foundation with support of the International Visegrad Fund, in Warsaw, on May 25, 2016.
Perspectives and challenges for building Greater EuropeRussian Council
The Working Paper includes analytical papers on building the concept of Greater Europe. The papers are prepared by RIAC and partner organizations in the framework of a research project “A Cooperative Greater Europe by 2030”. The Working Paper analyzes the concept of Greater Europe, its structural principles, and mechanisms of cooperation among the countries involved.
This article analyzes the scope of cooperation at the institutional and bilateral level of the
European Union and Central Asia. Despite the systematic tightening of cooperation between
Brussels and the republics of the former USSR, there is still a lack of unambiguous definition
of real long-term interests of the European Union in the region. The fundamental problem of
cooperation development is a strong fragmentation of EU activities in five different republics
of Central Asia. Therefore, there is a need to improve the exchange of information, increase
control and coordination, as well as limit the thematic scope of undertaken initiatives. There are
potential diversification opportunities for energy sources that exist in the Central Asia region.
On April 4, 2016, the Atlantic Council’s Eurasian Energy Futures Initiative launched a report, Securing Ukraine’s Energy Sector, authored by Dinu Patriciu Eurasia Center’s Resident Senior Fellow, Anders Åslund.
It is the core purpose of the Atlantic Council to foster bipartisan support for policies that promote the security of the United States and the transatlantic community. The signatories of this piece have either served in Afghanistan, been involved in the formation of US policy in government, or otherwise devoted considerable time to Afghan affairs. They have come together to register a broad, bipartisan consensus in support of certain principles that they believe should guide policy formation and decision-making on Afghanistan during the remainder of the Obama administration and the first year of a new administration, of whichever party. It is critical that the current administration prepare the path for the next. A new president will come into office facing a wave of instability in the Islamic world and the threat from violent extremism, which stretches from Asia through the Middle East to Africa. This will continue to pose a considerable challenge and danger to American interests abroad, and to the homeland. The signatories support the continued US engagement required to protect American interests and increase the possibilities for Afghan success.
Crude Oil for Natural Gas: Prospects for Iran-Saudi Reconciliationatlanticcouncil
Despite the sectarian barbs traded between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Iran's unique ability to meet the kingdom's fast growing demand for electricity may help spur a reconciliation, according to the Atlantic Council's Jean-François Seznec. In his report Crude Oil for Natural Gas: Prospects for Iran-Saudi Reconciliation, Seznec argues that the two dominant energy producers do not necessarily need to see their energy production as competition.
Saudi Arabia's currently fuels its stunning 8 percent annual rise in demand for electricity with precious crude oil due to little low cost domestic natural dry gas reserves. Iran's vast gas reserves could be used to meet the kingdom's growing needs, but after decades of punishing sanctions its dilapidated gas fields need an estimated $250 billion in repairs. If Saudi Arabia used its investment power or buying power to help revitalize Iran's gas industry, it would both secure the energy it needs to meet its citizens' demands and free up its crude oil for export. While the sectarian rhetoric hurled back and forth may seem unstoppable and the timeline for reconciliation may be long, Seznec contends that both sides are rational at heart and highlights that that the benefit of economic cooperation on energy issues could open up better relations on a range of issues.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, a civil society group comprising the Tunisian General Labor Union; the Tunisian Union of Industry, Trade, and Handicrafts; the Tunisian Human Rights League; and the Tunisian Order of Lawyers the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize on Friday, October 9, 2015 "for its decisive contribution to the building of a pluralistic democracy in Tunisia." In a new Atlantic Council Issue Brief, "Tunisia: The Last Arab Spring Country," Atlantic Council Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Senior Fellows Mohsin Khan and Karim Mezran survey the successes of Tunisia's consensus-based transition and the challenges that lie ahead.
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Cyber 9/12 Student Challenge General Informationatlanticcouncil
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cybersecurity breach of national and international importance.
Teams will compose policy recommendations
and justify their decision-making process, considering
the role and implications for relevant civilian,
military, law enforcement, and private sector entities
and updating the recommendations as the scenario
evolves.
In Geneva, Switzerland, in
partnership with the Geneva
Centre for Security
Policy (GCSP), students
respond to a major cyberattack
on European networks. Competitors will provide
recommendations balancing individual national
approaches and a collective crisis management response,
considering capabilities, policies, and governance
structures of NATO, EU, and individual nations.
The competition fosters a culture of cooperation and
a better understanding of these organizations and
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The South China Sea (SCS) has been, and remains, an area rife with tension. Disputes among SCS states stem from unresolved issues relating to sovereignty, exclusive economic zones, natural resources, and acceptable uses of the military. In the past two decades, fishing boats have been detained or damaged, fishermen and sailors arrested or killed, and artificial islands constructed for military purposes. These years of strife have led to the current SCS state of play: it is a vitally important region where competition is high and trust is low.
This issue brief argues that SCS countries need to work toward a "mutual confidence" and "mutual dependence" end state. In particular, the paper focuses on sharing meteorological data to support humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations, including search and rescue operations, foreign disaster relief goods delivery, and medical care. A mutual confidence/mutual dependence relationship between two SCS states would help mitigate regional conflicts or disputes, which in turn can help lead to a more peaceful region.
Mexico's historic energy reforms continue to hold exciting promise for the country, achieving the requisite constitutional and implementing legislation over the last fifteen months. The global oil price climate, however, has prompted a few mid-course corrections to the rollout of the reforms. For Mexico to continue to attract excitement for its energy sector, the government will need to maintain a degree of flexibility while holding true to the principles of the reforms.
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Presentation by Jared Jageler, David Adler, Noelia Duchovny, and Evan Herrnstadt, analysts in CBO’s Microeconomic Studies and Health Analysis Divisions, at the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists Summer Conference.
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Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
Jennifer Schaus and Associates hosts a complimentary webinar series on The FAR in 2024. Join the webinars on Wednesdays and Fridays at noon, eastern.
Recordings are on YouTube and the company website.
https://www.youtube.com/@jenniferschaus/videos
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Relaunching the eastern_partnership_web
1. A Transatlantic Approach to Europe’s East:
Relaunching the Eastern Partnership
BYFRANCESG.BURWELL
Atlantic Council
TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS PROGRAM
ISSUE INFOCUS
Frances G. Burwell is a Vice President and the Director of the Program on Transatlantic Relations at the Atlantic Council.
MAY 2015
To safeguard its own security, Europe must build a
closer and more integrated relationship with the key
countries of its Eastern Partnership (EaP). Ukraine, Mol-
dova, and Georgia must become priorities, and over the
longer term, Europe must look for opportunities with
Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. As long as these coun-
tries are poor, vulnerable to aggression, and politically
unstable—some with frozen or active conflicts within
their borders—they will erode the security of the rest of
Europe. The Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga, Latvia,
on May 20-21, 2015, offers a key opportunity for the
European Union (EU) to confront this challenge by
launching a reinvigorated EaP and, with the United
States, a new Transatlantic Partnership for Wider Eu-
rope.
A Partnership of Good Intentions
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the most suc-
cessful foreign policy effort of the European and US gov-
ernments was the integration of Central European states
into NATO and the EU. NATO engaged these countries
in a strategic discussion across the Atlantic while also
teaching their militaries how to behave in a democracy.
Accession to the EU was even more intrusive, requiring
these new democracies to transform their economies
and their judicial and political systems, while also bring-
ing a convergence of their foreign policies. As the EU’s
border moved eastward, its attention also moved to its
new neighbors.
In 2004, the EU proposed its European Neighborhood
Policy (ENP) as a way of reaching out to sixteen of its
neighbors, in both the east and south, and developing
stronger relations based on shared values, economic
connections, and human and cultural connections, but
without the expectation of eventual EU membership.
The diversity of the neighbors led the EU to establish
the Euro-Mediterranean partnership and the Black Sea
Synergy in 2008. In 2009, the EU established perhaps its
most consequential outgrowth of the ENP, the Eastern
Partnership with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan,
Armenia, and Belarus. The EaP was intended to “ac-
celerate the political association and further economic
integration between the European Union and interested
partner countries.” The EaP would focus on four “plat-
forms”:
• democracy, good governance, and stability;
• economic integration and convergence with the EU;
• energy security; and
• people-to-people initiatives.
Progress was measured by how closely these countries
came to adopting the EU’s own policy and regulatory
structure, the acquis communautaire. In time, success-
ful partners were expected to negotiate an Association
Agreement (AA) with the EU, the highlight of which
would be a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agree-
ment (DCFTA), which not only removed tariff barriers,
but also sought to bring the partners’ economic regula-
tory policy to an EU level. The EaP also aimed to create
“mobility partnerships,” under which their citizens could
qualify for visa-free travel to the EU.
Transatlantic Relations Program
The Transatlantic Relations Program promotes
dialogue on major issues affecting the transatlantic
partnership and the ability of the United States and
Europe to respond to global challenges.
This issue in focus was published with funds
generously provided by the Embassy of Latvia in
the United States, as part of the Atlantic Council’s
initiative Toward a Transatlantic Strategy for
Europe’s East.
2. 2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL
This effort should not be seen as altruistic—it was
widely believed that advancing the security and prosper-
ity of these six partners would help build a more secure
and prosperous EU. But in contrast with the process
that brought the Central European countries into the EU,
membership was not on the table for the EaP countries.
Accession was not explicitly ruled out, but many EU
members made clear their opposition to bringing in new
members. Regardless of its progress, no partner country
could count on being considered for membership for
many years.
For a time, the EaP enjoyed some progress. In return
for taking some steps toward reform, these countries
received significant EU financial assistance,1
and in
some partner states, there was real progress in terms
of economic and political reform. Georgia, Moldova, and
Ukraine signed Association Agreements with the EU in
2014. All three eventually signed DCFTAs, although imple-
mentation of the Ukrainian agreement has been delayed
until 2016. In Belarus, however, there was little progress
at all; and, in Azerbaijan and Armenia—both of which,
under Russian pressure, declined to pursue Association
1 During 2010-2013, the EU made available €2.5 billion to the six EaP
countries to meet the Partnership objectives. The countries were also
eligible for funding from other EU instruments, such as ERASMUS schol-
arship support for students and the Horizon 2020 grant framework for
research. See European Union External Action, “The Eastern Partner-
ship—Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ),”
http://eeas.europa.eu/eastern/faq/index_en.htm#8.
Agreements—episodic progress was overshadowed by
continuing problems of corruption, and human rights
abuses. Six years after the start of the EaP, some partner
countries had made progress, but others seemed to have
turned away from the idea of joining Europe.
In some cases, the lack of progress was due to decisions
by the partner governments, who found the needed
reforms too difficult—or too threatening to corrupt
interests. There was nothing in the EU toolbox that could
tempt a dictator like Alexander Lukashenko to disrupt
the system that kept him in power. Even when govern-
ments genuinely tried to move forward, there was no
escaping the fact that the reforms required in an EU
Association Agreement were incredibly difficult for any
government, but especially those with limited institu-
tional capacity.
The uneven progress of the partner countries was also
due to their deteriorating security environment. When
Central Europe originally moved to join NATO and
the EU, Russia had been focused on its own domestic
reforms and was too weak to threaten its former satel-
lites. For a time, it even seemed that Russia might itself
opt for closer partnership with the West, as indicated
by the NATO-Russia Council. But by 2008, the situation
had changed, as demonstrated by the Russian attack on
Georgia. Its manipulation of the Azeri-Armenian conflict
over Nagorno-Karabakh, and its continuing support of
Leaders gathered at the 3rd Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius in November 2013. Photo credit: Lithuanian Presidency of the
Council of the European Union 2013.
3. ATLANTIC COUNCIL 3
the separatists in Transniestria sent a clear message to
any who thought of challenging Russian hegemony in
its border states. For a time, the Russian government
ignored the Eastern Partnership, as its concern was
focused on the possibility of further NATO expansion. It
saw the EU as a weak institution focused on economic
issues, with little political impact. But as Central Europe
became more and more integrated within the EU—both
economically and politically—Russian President Vladi-
mir Putin reacted to prevent a similar path being taken
by the EaP countries.
Confronted with this challenge, the EU and its member
states were slow to respond. The EaP acted as a process
between the EU and its partners, with no way to take
into account the views of external actors. For many
EU members, the East was simply not a priority—they
were more focused on the eurozone crisis or the grow-
ing instability across the Mediterranean. Nor was the
United States immediately engaged. It had focused on
NATO enlargement, but this no longer seemed on the
agenda for any of the EaP countries except Georgia; even
there, membership was at best a long term prospect.
With wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a growing focus
on Asia, the US administration was content to leave this
challenge to the Europeans.
The Ukraine crisis that began in late 2013 showed the
poverty of the EU and US approaches. The failure of
President Viktor Yanukovych to sign the EU Association
Agreement at the Vilnius Summit demonstrated that
the rather legalistic EU process was no match for power
politics. Putin’s annexation of Crimea and support for
militant separatists in eastern Ukraine made clear to the
other partners just how far he would go to stop align-
ment with the West.
To Refine or Relaunch?
The EU now faces a choice. At the Riga Summit, the EU
member states and the six Eastern Partnership coun-
tries will once again meet to discuss their future ar-
rangements. This will not be a negotiation: while each of
the six partners can assert the type of relationship they
want with the EU, and by extension, with the West, it is
the EU that holds almost all of the cards: trade, financial
support, visa facilitation, even the possibility of eventual
membership. The EU’s aim is clearly to have a stable
neighborhood, and the consensus in Europe is that such
stability is best achieved by having market oriented
democracies next door. The question is how to reach
that aim.
In one scenario, the EU could choose to modify the EaP
by merely refining its current approach. In this option,
the EU would reaffirm the right of any partner to choose
its own future, and it would diversify the paths partners
can take, allowing them to select the various elements—
economic reform, political reform, etc.—on an à la carte
basis. There will be more flexibility and fewer demands,
as well as lowered expectations regarding how far the
partners will progress and how much the EU will offer.
In a second scenario, however, the EU will relaunch the
EaP, and then build on this with the United States to cre-
ate a Transatlantic Partnership for Wider Europe. The
ambition of the EaP will remain largely the same—to
bring these countries into a stable political association
with the EU and more closely integrate their economies
with the European one. The EU will start by identifying
the factors that make these countries vulnerable and
unstable, and design strategies specifically to overcome
each weakness, in some cases building on the experi-
ence of the EaP to date. Although each country will dif-
fer, most of the partners are vulnerable in the following
areas: energy security; physical security; corrupt and
underperforming economies; inadequate infrastructure;
poor governance and administrative capacity; weak
public support for reform; and human rights violations
and poor judicial systems.
The EaP addressed all of these areas to some extent,
but often required progress across all areas in order to
unlock a strong EU commitment. The implementation of
a relaunched EaP will differ in two important ways from
the current partnership. First, each program will be
designed to fit the circumstances of each partner; it will
not automatically be assumed that the end point is the
adoption of EU-like systems or the acquis communau-
taire. On some issues, and for some countries, that may
be a desirable end, but probably not for all.
Second, there will be less of a quid pro quo, i.e., reform
brings more financial support. The EU must recognize
that its partners live in a complicated world and their
progress in some areas will be limited in the short
term. Lack of progress in political reform should not
prevent assistance in developing greater energy supply
THE EU SHOULD
RELAUNCH THE EASTERN
PARTNERSHIP, AND THEN
BUILD ON THIS WITH THE
UNITED STATES TO CREATE
A TRANSATLANTIC
PARTNERSHIP FOR
WIDER EUROPE.
4. 4 ATLANTIC COUNCIL
diversity, for example. Instead, EU leaders should ask if
addressing a particular issue in the partner countries
is in Europe’s interest; if so, they should move forward
where they can, including with financial support. Some
will argue that the EU will end up supporting authori-
tarian governments, and that is always a risk. But by
working to reduce vulnerabilities such as corruption,
poor governance, and nonperforming economies, the EU
will lay a stronger foundation for political reform. Nor is
there anything preventing the EU from criticizing gov-
ernments for antidemocratic behavior or human rights
violations. But there will not be an automatic assump-
tion that countries must move toward a European model
in order to receive assistance in any area. Certainly,
where it works, that would be a desirable end; but these
countries should not be neglected because their current
situation is too complicated to allow such an outcome in
the short term.
The United States cannot stand idly by and simply leave
this to Europe, however. The current challenge to the
international order is also a threat to the United States,
and Washington should thus be ready to help vulnerable
states where it can. The EU will have to lead, as it has so
much more at stake, given its proximity to these part-
ners, and so much more leverage, both economic and
otherwise. But the United States must actively support
a new EaP. Its approach to these countries, including
financial and technical assistance, should be harmo-
nized with the EU approach wherever possible. The EaP
should thus be embedded in a larger structure of consul-
tation and assistance, the Transatlantic Partnership for a
Wider Europe.
Eastern Partnership 2.0
Building this new partnership must start with the EU.
While US participation and support is required for
success, the first steps must happen at the Riga East-
ern Partnership Summit. In particular, the EU should
announce its intention to take the following steps, which
are designed to reduce the vulnerabilities listed above:
Create an Energy Union encompassing those EaP
members who wish to belong and who will take
on the responsibilities. Most discussions of Energy
Union—including the Commission’s February 2015
proposal—envision the new structure involving only
EU members, while some of the EaP countries would
continue their current memberships in the European
Energy Community (Ukraine and Moldova are contract-
ing parties, Georgia is a candidate country, and Armenia
is an observer). The Energy Community is designed to
bring the countries of the Balkans and Eastern Europe
closer to the EU through gradual adoption of its energy-
related acquis communautaire. Yet EU energy security
will not be complete without the full engagement of
some EaP countries. Instead of viewing the Energy
Union as an exclusive club, EU members should recall
that even Schengen includes some non-EU members;
indeed there is considerable “variable geometry” within
Europe. EaP countries that are already contracting par-
ties or candidates in the EC should be given “candidate”
status in the Energy Union. After satisfying a series of
benchmarks based on EU energy regulation, includ-
ing the third energy package—a major EU initiative
designed to open energy and gas markets to competi-
tion—these countries could become full members of the
Energy Union. This would achieve two important goals:
bringing these countries into a more integrated energy
framework with the EU that would enhance everyone’s
energy security; and provide Ukraine, Moldova, and
Georgia with a closer sense of belonging to Europe. As
for Belarus, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, if they decide later
to join the EC, they could also progress down this same
road; it would be their choice.
Launch a campaign to win the “hearts and minds” of
EaP citizens, using one of the EU’s best “weapons”—
visa liberalization—and also creating alternative
Russian-language media. The EU is a “soft-power”
superpower. Despite the financial crisis, despite the rise
of anti-establishment parties both left and right, despite
the regular disparagement of the EU from within its
own borders, we should not forget that the people of
the Maidan were protesting to join Europe. It was the
failure of their government to pursue a European path
that made them take to the streets. But this happens by
accident—Europe does not have a strategy to win sup-
port among the citizens of neighboring states. Even the
European Commission itself admitted being too late in
issuing a fact sheet to correct the inaccuracies about the
Association Agreement put forward by anti-EU factions
in Ukraine. It is time for the EU to think strategically
EASTERN PARTNERSHIP
COUNTRIES THAT ARE
ALREADY CONTRACTING
PARTIES OR CANDIDATES
IN THE ENERGY
COMMUNITY SHOULD
BE GIVEN “CANDIDATE”
STATUS IN
THE ENERGY UNION.
5. ATLANTIC COUNCIL 5
about its reputation, and how to garner support within
strategic populations, including those of the EaP states.
The tasking of the European External Action Service with
developing a plan to counter Russian propaganda is a
good step forward. The EU should also be very public
about what it is doing in terms of support for the govern-
ments of Ukraine and Moldova, and be alert to the need
to counter misinformation about its own policies and
actions. Most importantly, the EU should recognize the
importance of allowing citizens from countries that meet
the technical requirements to enter the EU for tourism
and business visits. Nothing will have more impact than
fast-tracking efforts to provide such access to the EU for
EaP citizens. Ironically, it is easier for citizens of Argen-
tina and Brazil to visit the EU visa free than most EaP citi-
zens. Moldova qualified for visa-free travel in 2014, and
there are hopes that Ukraine and Georgia may receive
that status at the Riga Summit. Meeting those expecta-
tions would give the EU a powerful tool for encouraging
those citizens on their European path.
Provide support for further economic growth and
reform, by providing greater market access, as well
as financial and technical support required to at-
tract greater foreign investment. The EU will benefit
enormously by having prosperous, stable economies on
its borders and in its close neighborhood. The EU already
provides extensive financial support for most of the EaP
countries. Perhaps just as important as this aid is the
market access the EU has provided at key moments: in
late 2013, quick access for Moldovan wine was granted
after a Russian boycott went into force, and throughout
2014-15, unilateral market access was granted to Ukrai-
nian products when the implementation of the DCFTA
was delayed. The EU should now move forward on two
fronts. First, those EaP countries that cannot manage—or
do not want—a DCFTA, should be offered much more
basic market access for key exports. This will not neces-
sarily conflict with their obligations under the Eurasian
Economic Union (EEU), but will help build stronger
economic ties with the West. A DCFTA should not be the
only option for EU trade policy vis à vis these countries.
Second, the EU should encourage greater private sector
investment in the EaP countries, as this will be key to
building stronger economies. The European Investment
Bank has already allocated €600 million for rebuilding
infrastructure in eastern Ukraine and for helping local
small and medium enterprises recover.2
But there should
also be credit guarantees and other measures to help
foreign investors who have considered investment even
in western Ukraine but who are unwilling to take on the
risks alone.
2 European Investment Bank, “EIB Supports Early Recovery and SME Sec-
tor in Ukraine with EUR 600 Million,” December 22, 2014, http://www.
eib.org/infocentre/press/releases/all/2014/2014-301-eib-supports-
early-recovery-and-sme-sector-in-ukraine-with-eur-600-million.htm.
Iurie Leanca, then Prime Minister of Moldova, and Catherine Ashton, then High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security
Policy, shaking hands at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Vilnius, November 2013. Photo credit: Lithuanian Presidency of the
Council of the European Union 2013.
6. 6 ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Support efforts to strengthen government coher-
ence and transparency, as well as anticorruption
efforts, with both financial and technical assistance.
If an economy is to flourish, corruption must not be any
part of the normal way of doing business. The greatest
safeguard against corruption is government transpar-
ency, both in its own dealings and in requiring this of
the private sector. The EU has used such mechanisms as
“twinning” officials—sending member state experts and
officials to work alongside officials in other states—to
enhance government capacities and expertise, and this
should be continued if not enhanced. The EU can also
financially support efforts of the EaP governments to
put documents and processes on line, and also support
civil society groups that focus on gathering and publish-
ing information on government activities. The EU should
also work with member state businesses active in EaP
countries to ensure that they are not facilitating corrupt
practices. Although boosting government coherence and
fighting corruption with transparency seem relatively
modest goals, they provide an essential foundation for
sustainable democracy.
Continue to point out shortcomings in terms of
human rights abuses and violations of democratic
norms, including freedom of speech and assem-
bly. Under this relaunched EaP, the European Union
will sometimes decide that strengthening a country’s
energy infrastructure is important irrespective of the
stage of its democratic development. That does not
mean that the EU—or the United States—should be
silent when abuses of human rights or democratic
process occur. The EU has a long history of speaking
out in support of democracy, even to close diplomatic
partners, and this should not stop. Tangible support
for civil society should be provided through the Eu-
ropean Endowment for Democracy and other mecha-
nisms, and the EU’s support of election observations
should not cease. And clearly, if an EaP country wants
to be considered as a future EU or NATO member, it
must move decisively to address democratic short-
comings.
Many in the Partnership countries would say that their
highest priority is to receive a membership perspective;
i.e., to be promised EU membership when they meet the
criteria. But this is very unlikely to happen at the Riga
Summit. Indeed, one of the failings of the EaP has been to
treat these countries as though they are moving toward
membership, when that was not the EU’s ambition. By
taking the membership perspective for the group off the
table, the EU will be free to support a much more variable
approach to these countries, focused on their particu-
lar situation and the EU interest in boosting stability,
prosperity, and good governance. Some of these coun-
tries should receive a full EU membership perspective,
hopefully in the very near future. Those EaP countries
that seek to “belong” to Europe immediately should pur-
sue the option of membership in the Energy Union. The
EU, by opening Energy Union membership to all Energy
Community members and candidates, would contribute
significantly to the sense of inclusion and stability in the
region.
A Transatlantic Project
This effort should not be a totally European undertaking,
however. Since the end of the Cold War, the United States
has played an essential role in integrating Central Europe
into the Euro-Atlantic community. It took on a leadership
role in making NATO enlargement a reality, and it encour-
aged EU candidate countries to work diligently at the
necessary reforms (while not always being patient about
the length of EU processes). Today, the United States
should not leave support for the EaP countries solely to
the EU and its member states. The EU has a much more
significant stake in these countries—thanks to close eco-
nomic, cultural, and historical ties as well as the impact of
immigration, both legal and illegal. But the United States
still has a serious interest in the ability of these countries
to choose their own future path and to enjoy strong econ-
omies and political systems while doing so. The United
States should fully support the EU in the efforts listed
above, and especially should focus on providing financial
assistance for anticorruption and transparency efforts, as
well as credit guarantees for those seeking to invest. The
close cooperation that has developed between the United
States and EU in the Ukraine crisis should be extended
to transatlantic management of assistance to all the EaP
BY WORKING WITH
EUROPE TO PROVIDE THE
EAP COUNTRIES WITH
SOME ELEMENTS OF
SECURITY AND TO ENSURE
THAT THE IMPACT OF TTIP
IS POSITIVE, THE UNITED
STATES CAN HELP THESE
COUNTRIES ACHIEVE
A GREATER LEVEL
OF PROSPERITY AND
SECURITY.
7. ATLANTIC COUNCIL 7
countries. In addition, the United States can take two
important steps—with its European partners—to bring
the EaP countries closer to the transatlantic partnership.
In particular, the United States and Europe should:
Open discussions with EaP countries about how the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
(TTIP) will affect them and explore the potential for
using TTIP to grant the EaP countries market access
to both sides of the Atlantic. Those EaP countries that
have successfully concluded a DCFTA with the European
Union will certainly be affected by TTIP, but whether
they will achieve access to the US market will depend on
the rules-of-origin clauses, and perhaps other regula-
tions. Those EaP countries that do not have a DCFTA
in force face a more ambiguous situation. The United
States and EU should consult with the EaP countries to
determine whether market access would be a benefit
for them. Those with a DCFTA already have access to the
EU market, and have already started to cope with the
free import of EU goods. The impact of access to the US
market is likely to be much less in terms of economics,
but could be a great boost politically in terms of belong-
ing to the West. For those without a DCFTA, it has been
recommended earlier that the EU open its markets any-
way, at least for certain key products. The United States
should do likewise—either through TTIP or a regular
FTA. Again the actual economic impact will be small, as
none of the EaP countries has much trade with the US
compared to Europe, but the political significance would
be much greater. At the same time, such a market ac-
cess agreement should not conflict with any obligations
under the EEU.
Build on existing security and defense cooperation
with some EaP countries to strengthen military-
to-military cooperation, interoperability, and joint
training, including through NATO and EU operations.
The United States, through NATO and directly, already
has security and defense partnerships with some EaP
countries. All the EaP countries are members of NATO’s
Partnership for Peace, for example, although some, such
as Georgia, have been far more active than others. The
EaP countries face very diverse and in some cases, very
threatening security situations. Without some prospect
of security, these governments are unlikely to be able
to undertake desired reforms or achieve any lasting
stability. They are unlikely to become members of NATO
in the near future—and not all want to join the alliance.
Thus, the United States and Europe must find alterna-
tive means of providing some level of security for these
countries, at least those who want to work with the
United States and Europe. Perhaps most important is
the building of strong military-to-military partnerships,
which create confidence and greater understanding
by both parties. Visits by NATO troops, either under
Alliance or national commands will also be important.
US and European forces should participate in military
exercises when invited by EaP countries and also invite
those countries to send their troops to NATO and PfP
exercises. While all these activities happen occasionally
with EaP countries, it needs to be a much more robust
and strategic engagement if it is have any significant
impact.
The European Union has the first responsibility to
manage relations with the EaP countries and create a
new form of partnership, as it has the most connections
with them and the most at stake. But the United States
can play a crucially important role, especially in helping
ensure that these countries can feel part of the West.
By working with Europe to provide the EaP countries
with some elements of security and to ensure that the
impact of TTIP is positive, the United States can help
these countries achieve a greater level of prosperity and
security. By working together to address the challenging
situation of the EaP—by building a truly transatlantic
partnership for this wider Europe—the United States
and EU can help these countries reach a more stable,
prosperous, and secure future.
8. CHAIRMAN
*Jon M. Huntsman, Jr.
CHAIRMAN,
INTERNATIONAL
ADVISORY BOARD
Brent Scowcroft
PRESIDENT AND CEO
*Frederick Kempe
EXECUTIVE
VICE CHAIRS
*Adrienne Arsht
*Stephen J. Hadley
VICE CHAIRS
*Robert J. Abernethy
*Richard Edelman
*C. Boyden Gray
*George Lund
*Virginia A. Mulberger
*W. DeVier Pierson
*John Studzinski
TREASURER
*Brian C. McK. Henderson
SECRETARY
*Walter B. Slocombe
DIRECTORS
Stephane Abrial
Odeh Aburdene
Peter Ackerman
Timothy D. Adams
John Allen
Michael Andersson
Michael Ansari
Richard L. Armitage
David D. Aufhauser
Elizabeth F. Bagley
Peter Bass
*Rafic Bizri
*Thomas L. Blair
Francis Bouchard
Myron Brilliant
Esther Brimmer
*R. Nicholas Burns
*Richard R. Burt
Michael Calvey
James E. Cartwright
John E. Chapoton
Ahmed Charai
Sandra Charles
George Chopivsky
Wesley K. Clark
David W. Craig
*Ralph D. Crosby, Jr.
Nelson Cunningham
Ivo H. Daalder
Gregory R. Dahlberg
*Paula J. Dobriansky
Christopher J. Dodd
Conrado Dornier
Patrick J. Durkin
Thomas J. Edelman
Thomas J. Egan, Jr.
*Stuart E. Eizenstat
Thomas R. Eldridge
Julie Finley
Lawrence P. Fisher, II
Alan H. Fleischmann
Michèle Flournoy
*Ronald M. Freeman
Laurie Fulton
*Robert S. Gelbard
Thomas Glocer
*Sherri W. Goodman
Mikael Hagström
Ian Hague
John D. Harris II
Frank Haun
Michael V. Hayden
Annette Heuser
*Karl Hopkins
Robert Hormats
*Mary L. Howell
Robert E. Hunter
Wolfgang Ischinger
Reuben Jeffery, III
Robert Jeffrey
*James L. Jones, Jr.
George A. Joulwan
Lawrence S. Kanarek
Stephen R. Kappes
Maria Pica Karp
Francis J. Kelly, Jr.
Zalmay M. Khalilzad
Robert M. Kimmitt
Henry A. Kissinger
Franklin D. Kramer
Philip Lader
*Richard L. Lawson
*Jan M. Lodal
Jane Holl Lute
William J. Lynn
Izzat Majeed
Wendy W. Makins
Mian M. Mansha
William E. Mayer
Allan McArtor
Eric D.K. Melby
Franklin C. Miller
James N. Miller
*Judith A. Miller
*Alexander V. Mirtchev
Obie L. Moore
*George E. Moose
Georgette Mosbacher
Steve C. Nicandros
Thomas R. Nides
Franco Nuschese
Joseph S. Nye
Sean O’Keefe
Hilda Ochoa-
Brillembourg
Ahmet Oren
*Ana Palacio
Carlos Pascual
Thomas R. Pickering
Daniel B. Poneman
Daniel M. Price
*Andrew Prozes
Arnold L. Punaro
*Kirk A. Radke
Teresa M. Ressel
Charles O. Rossotti
Stanley O. Roth
Robert Rowland
Harry Sachinis
William O. Schmieder
John P. Schmitz
Brent Scowcroft
Alan J. Spence
James Stavridis
Richard J.A. Steele
*Paula Stern
Robert J. Stevens
John S. Tanner
Peter J. Tanous
*Ellen O. Tauscher
Karen Tramontano
Clyde C. Tuggle
Paul Twomey
Melanne Verveer
Enzo Viscusi
Charles F. Wald
Jay Walker
Michael F. Walsh
Mark R. Warner
David A. Wilson
Maciej Witucki
Mary C. Yates
Dov S. Zakheim
HONORARY
DIRECTORS
David C. Acheson
Madeleine K. Albright
James A. Baker, III
Harold Brown
Frank C. Carlucci, III
Robert M. Gates
Michael G. Mullen
Leon E. Panetta
William J. Perry
Colin L. Powell
Condoleezza Rice
Edward L. Rowny
George P. Shultz
John W. Warner
William H. Webster
*Executive Committee Members
List as of May 12, 2015
Atlantic Council Board of Directors