Tim Reardon, Assistant Director of Data Services of the Metropolitan Area Planning Council testifies at a hearing of the Massachusetts Joint Housing Committee.

1. The Housing Production Imperative
Growing a Stronger Massachusetts
2010 – 2040
Tim Reardon
Assistant Director of Data Services
Metropolitan Area Planning Council
Joint Committee on Housing
September 29, 2015

2. Analysis region comprises
• 164 cities and towns
• 4.5 million residents
• 1.7 million households
Four Community Types
• Inner Core
• Regional Urban Centers
• Maturing Suburbs
• Developing Suburbs
Metro Boston

3. -
100,000
200,000
300,000
15 -
19
20 -
24
25 -
29
30 -
34
35 -
39
40 -
44
45 -
49
50 -
54
55 -
59
60 -
64
65 -
69
70 -
74
75 -
79
80 -
84
85
plus
Age
2040, Status Quo
A Coming Wave of Boomer Retirement
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
2010 In Labor Force
Not In Labor Force
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
2020, Status Quo
Baby Boomers (born
1945 – 1970) comprise
49% of labor force
One million workers now
over the age of 40 will
retire by 2030 (39% of
Metro Boston labor force)
Existing population is
insufficient to fill vacant
positions
Baby
Boomers
Baby
Boomers
Baby
Boomers

4. In-Migration is Key to Economic Growth
2,543,000
2,509,000
2,526,000
2,515,500
2,616,000
2,643,000
2,690,000
2,400,000
2,450,000
2,500,000
2,550,000
2,600,000
2,650,000
2,700,000
2,750,000
2010 2020 2030 2040
Population in the Labor Force,
Metro Boston, 2010 - 2040,
Status Quo vs. Stronger Region
Status Quo
Stronger Region
If historic migration
patterns continue,
workforce likely to grow
by less than 1%
Recent years show less
outmigration to other
states. If positive trends
continue, Metro Boston
could add 175,000
workers to the labor force
by 2040 (7% increase)

5. Boomers Leaving Jobs, Not Homes
Number of Baby Boomer workers declines 70%
Number of Baby Boomer households falls only 13%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Boomers in Labor Force Boomer-headed Households
Baby Boomer (born 1945 – 1970)
Workforce Departures vs. Household Change
2010 - 2030
2010 2030
863,000
Boomers
leave
labor
force
Only
free up
116,000
units

6. Housing Demand Outpaces Population
Average household size to
decline 10% by 2040
Same number of people
form more households,
need more housing units
Status Quo population up
6.6%, households up 17%
168,000 units needed to
accommodate declining
household size; 60% of
total housing demand
3.22
2.84
2.69
2.53
2.50
2.38
2.31
2.28
2.20
2.30
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
3.10
3.20
3.30
AverageNumberofPeopleperHousehold
Average Household Size,
Metro Boston, 1970 - 2040
1990 - 2010
Status Quo

7. Multifamily occupancy increased for all age groups
Steepest increases among Millennials and Baby Boomers
Source: 2006 – 2010 American Community Survey, 2000 Census
Multifamily Occupancy is Growing
0.2%
7.0%
4.5%
0.8%
2.4% 2.5%
3.8%
0.8% 0.7%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75 plus
ChangeinPercentofHouseholds
inMultifamilyHousing
Age of Householder
Change in Multifamily Occupancy Rates,
2000 to 2010, Metro Boston

8. A New Paradigm of Housing Demand
Metro Boston will need 435,000 new units by 2040
Most housing demand will be in urban communities
Two-thirds of demand will be for multifamily
21%
42% 60%
64%
24% 21%
18%
16%
55%
38%
23%
18%
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Inner Core Regional Urban
Centers
Maturing
Suburbs
Developing
Suburbs
ProjectedHousingUnitDemand,
2010-2030
Housing Unit Demand by Type and Tenure, 2010 - 2030,
Stronger Region Scenario
Metro Boston Community Types
Multifamily -
Rent
Multifamily -
Own
Single Family -
Own
75,900
63,201
80,600
108,800

9. Conclusions
Attracting and retaining young workers
is an economic imperative
435,000 new units needed in Metro Boston
(500,000 statewide) to keep pace with
population growth and smaller households
A new paradigm of housing demand requires
more urban and multifamily production than
has been seen in recent decades

10. ThankYou!
treardon@mapc.org
www.mapc.org/projections
www.housing.ma