The document discusses alternatives to pursuing a gas-fired recovery in Australia. It summarizes views that expanding gas extraction and infrastructure risks wasting taxpayer money and locking the country into fossil fuel assets at a time when major trading partners are pursuing net zero emissions by 2050. There are concerns that pursuing more gas will not actually lower prices due to market control by a small number of companies. The potential health, environmental and water contamination risks of proposed new gas fields are also summarized from experts and local residents. Alternatives like energy efficiency and renewable energy are suggested to meet energy needs at lower cost without the risks of expanded gas development.

1. The Gas-fired Recovery
“Paris is translated by saying it is a commitment
to burn less stuff.
We are not listening to our export customers.”
Bruce Robertson, interview, 23 July, 2020

2. Is the gas-fired recovery “essential” or are
there cheaper, cleaner alternatives?
• What is the gas-fired recovery?
• Will it reduce the price of gas?
• Is gas “50% better”?
• Do we need more gas extraction?
• What about the financial risks?
• What about impacts?
• Are there alternatives to gas?

3. Energy has gone from a commodity to a technology.
Technologies get cheaper and cheaper, with more
and more features, like computers and Moore’s Law.
The same with solar, it will continue to get cheaper
and cheaper.
You can’t fight a cost curve!
“
”
Bruce Robertson, interview, 23 October, 2020
Image:AlcazarEnergy’s64MWAEES1project,BenbanSolarPark,Egypt:AlcazarEnergyviaPVMagazine

4. In NSW there’s the Narrabri gas field which is
right under the Pilliga state forest, so they
basically want to destroy the Pilliga state
forest with another thousand wells there.
This is a climate disaster. What will be the
impact if these things are opened up?
It’s just more climate disaster.
We’ve already discovered and produced
enough fossil fuels to cook the planet, so,
why are we continuing like this? This is what
our government is trying to do.
“
”
Tim Forcey, Energy Researcher, Author, Engineer, interview, 30 October, 2020
Image: BSCH (BOM) via news.com.au

5. They should never ever build a gas field in a forest
Look at all the fires that we’ve had, they’re gonna
have a gas field in the middle of there that can just
blow up in a bushfire, plus they’re clearing it all for
coal seam gas and that’s where the largest
population of koalas of the east coast live.
The koalas are already endangered. The Great
Artesian Basin is there underneath the Pilliga.
“
”Melinda Wilson, Community Organiser and mother of four, interview, 27 October, 2020
Image:WikimediaCommonsFile:ColourofAustralia(Bushfire)(48922109547).jpgSouthofYamba,NSW
ImageiscroppedCreatorTatianaGerusCCBYSA2.0

6. 1What is the gas-fired recovery?
Unlocking five key gas basins: starting with “Beetaloo Basin in the
NT and the North Bowen and Galilee Basin in Queensland”
from leaked NCC Manufacturing Taskforce Report: “One of the
taskforce’s primary recommendations is that the Commonwealth
underwrite gas demand so new projects have a guaranteed buyer”
Five gas basins:
Public spending on
Off-take agreements
or gas subsidies
on gas infrastructure
“A gas-fired recovery will help Australia’s economy bounce back better and stronger
while supporting our growing renewable capacity and delivering the reliable and
affordable energy Australians deserve.”
MinisterTaylor said. “We are building a robust and competitive gas industry that will
allow both gas producers and users to thrive, with lower prices and lower emissions
benefiting all Australians.” Prime Minister, Minister for Energy and Emissions Reduction,
Minister for Resources, Water and Northern Australia, 15 September, 2020
“Identifying priority pipelines and critical infrastructure” as
part of an inaugural National Gas Infrastructure Plan (NGIP)
helping the government to “step in if the private sector
doesn’t invest”

7. Although supply has tripled, gas prices have risen, “tripling in some
cases” says Bruce Robertson: “A domestic gas reservation policy is
the only way to “ensure low prices and surety of supply for
domestic consumers”
2Will it reduce the price of gas?
Gas-fired Recovery
Santos made a last minute submission to the IPC citing AEMO’s figures of
$6.40/GL, which were figures they had provided AEMO themselves.
Core Energy (for AEMO) contrasts average costs of production for east
coast gas at $3.05/GJwith $7.28/GJ - $9.36/GL, Santos’ earlier
estimations for Narrabri gas prices. Narrabri gas is likely to be expensive.
Andrew Liveris says National COVID-19 Commission’s target is $4/GJ.
Santos says it can’t deliver gas into Sydney at $4/GJ, says IEEFA
Narrabri gas is likely to be near double international LNG spot prices,
projected at $4.71/GL in October 2020, according to the ACCC,
cited by IEEFA.
300%
$4.00/GJ
$7.28-9.36/GJ
“so what they are doing is selling more gas offshore to keep the domestic price high”
Bruce Robertson, IEEFA, interview, 26 October, 2020

8. “The ACCC is very concerned with the widening gap between domestic
and export parity prices, which will have an inevitable impact on Australia’s
industrial sector during what is already a difficult economic period”
Domestic gas users paying too much, ACCC 17 August, 2020
Embedded forward cost of production
Average producer offers (Queensland)
LNG netback price

9. If we look at the east coast gas market really the probably is that there
are only a very few players in the market, and this handful of players
basically set the price, fix the price, which is illegal in Australia. The ACCC
has repeatedly pointed this out.
What have East Coast gas exports got to do
with high energy prices?
“
”
• “The east coast gas industry – or cartel - has consistently price gouged the Australian domestic
consumer... The cartel has used the Australian gas consumer to socialise its losses on the
export markets.”
• “We [ACCC] estimate that for every $1/GJ rise in gas prices, the wholesale price of electricity
rises by up to $11/MWh, depending on regional differences in the NEM.”
• “The effect of inflated gas prices on electricity prices is profound... placing a massive burden on
the entire economy, not just gas consumers.”
The Narrabri Gas Project - Submission to Independent Planning Commission, IEEFA, August, 2020
Bruce Robertson, IEEFA, interview, 26 October, 2020
Gas-fired Recovery

10. 3Is gas cleaner?
“50%
better”
Leakage
25%
30%
Gas-fired Recovery
“The government and politicians love to say ‘Gas is 50% better than coal’”,
says Bruce Robertson, but this only applies to burning gas in baseload plants,
whereas most gas usage is in gas peakers which are only 31% better.
The ‘50% better’ figure only applies to gas burning itself, ignoring leakage.
“So if 2-3% of the dangerous greenhouse gas methane leaks out anywhere along the
supply chain right from the mine, right the way through to the LNG facility, what we
actually find is that gas is worse than coal.” Bruce Robertson, interview, 26 October, 2020
“Methane warms the planet 80 times as much as CO2 over the first 20 years after it is
released. Scientists estimate that the methane in the atmosphere contributes to about
25% of global warming”, Nature, News Release, 21 June 2018
“Measurements indicate that when producing gas from coal seams in the Powder River
Basin, Wyoming, up to 30% of produced methane can be emitted to the atmosphere”
US Dept of Energy 2010, cited in A review of current and future methane emissions from Australian
unconventional oil and gas production, October 2016, Melbourne Energy Institute, p31

11. BP, the major oil and gas multinational, says that the
broader industry leaks at 3.2%, so BP is saying that
gas is worse than coal for greenhouse gases.
“
”
Bruce Robertson, IEEFA, interview, 26 October, 2020
Image:Pandeyetal,Satelliteobservationsrevealextrememethaneleakagefromanaturalgaswellblowout
PNASDecember26,2019116(52)26376-26381

12. Dr Andrew Grogan: Narrabri Gas Project, Greenhouse Gas Claims Refuted April 2020
Will Narrabri Gas reduce emissions?
Fugitive methane emissions are underestimated in the Santos EIS. The addition
of reasonable estimates of fugitive methane emissions would increase the CO2e
emissions from the proposed project to over two million tonnes CO2e per year
[from 51,930 to 2,273,470 t CO2e/pa for project emissions]
At 1.4% fugitive emissions, the Narrabri Gas Project would emit 540,000t CO2e/pa
instead of 20,000 t CO2e/pa (Santos EIS,cited by Dr Grogan, NWPA).
Santos uses 0.0058% to caluculate fugitive emissions, two orders of
magnitude lower than our official estimates to the UN (0.5%) or US EPA’s 1.4%.
“Narrabri coal seam gas average CO2 content is 25% - 30%. That is about
three times what Santos “assumes” in its EIS...This appears to be a
material understatement of the carbon dioxide content of the gas”
Dr Grogan concludes “the significant greenhouse gas emissions arising
from removing this CO2 “means Narrabri CSG cannot be classed as a
clean (low carbon) fuel.”
540,000tCO2e/pa
0.0058%:
30%CO2
“
”
Gas-fired Recovery - case study: Narrabri Gas Project

13. 4Do we need more gas extraction?
with residential/commercial use of heat pumps, air conditioners, and
induction cooking - dwarfing NSW’s estimated 70PJ for industrial gas
Gas usage in gas-fired power plants has declined by 59% since 2014
Renewables have increased to 25% of the energy in the National Electricity Market.
190PJ
could be
saved
59%:
1.8%:
“Supply can’t be the problem because supply has tripled since 2014.
We’ve had so much gas come on stream and yet prices have gone up.
Over time, if we move the domestic consumer off gas, we can free up
a lot of gas supply.”
Gas peaking plants only contributed 1.8% generation to April 2020 while
accounting for 13.4% of capacity.
Gas peaking plants never run for long. We don’t need much gas to power them.
Bruce Robertson, 22 September, 2020

14. Far from seeing the “gas powered recovery”
our politicians desire, we are seeing a
gas fired depression around the globe.
Santos ... wrote off a further $950m from its failed Coal Seam
Gas to Liquefied Natural investments in Australia.
Their total write-downs since 2014 are close to $8bn!
“
“
”
”
• The number of US operating drill rigs has fallen 73% in the last 12 months
• US LNG exports have more than halved so far in 2020.
• Deloitte estimates that almost a third of U.S. shale producers are
technically insolvent at current oil prices.
Bruce Robertson, 23 July, 2020

15. 5What about the financial risks?
“While we pay even more for gas, which forces up the cost of
electricity, the government subsidised gas companies will continue to
export our lower cost sources of gas.” IEEFA, 29 September, 2020
“The NCC has accreted significant power in advising the Department of
Prime Minister and Cabinet on spending potentially billions of dollars of
public money. Civil society groups, members of parliament and retired
judges have expressed concern regarding the lack of proper governance
structures”. Elizabeth Hicks, Melbourne University Policy Brief
No domestic
“billions”
Gas
reserve
Taxpayer
subsidies
NCC
“Consumers will be paying for new pipelines in addition to the cost of production
at the fields. This deal is a financial red flag, to both electricity consumers and
taxpayers who will wear the cost of expensive gas infrastructure investment
under the Federal government’s planned subsidies to the industry. IEEFA
“The NCC is trying to harvest subsidies for the struggling oil and gas industry in
Australia.” Bruce Robertson, IEEFA, interview, 26 October, 2020
Gas-fired Recovery

16. We are likely to see the taxpayer be committed
to gas assets for the long term, at the very time
we are transitioning away from gas.
There is this startling air of unreality, in
Australia where we believe we can still open
up new coal and new gas fields right around
the country.
And yet our major customers, Japan and China,
Korea are committing to net zero by 2050. Zero
by 2050 means burning less of this stuff, not
more of this stuff.
“
”Image: Hydrogen powered Olympic village
JapanGov
Bruce Robertson, IEEFA, interview, 26 October, 2020

17. China’s President Xi Jinping surprised the
global community recently by committing his
country to net-zero emissions by 2060.
Meeting the pledge will demand a deep
transition of not just China’s energy system,
but its entire economy.
To achieve carbon neutrality, China must
dramatically reduce its gas use.
“
”
Hao Tan et al, 8 October, 2020
Image:SamMcNeil/APviaTheConverstion

18. 6What about health impacts?
Tara
“A Human Health Risk Assessment of air emissions around US UG
activities concluded that residents closest to well pads i.e., living
less that 1/2 mile from wells, have higher risks for
respiratory and neurological effects based on their exposure to
air pollutants; and a higher excess lifetime risk for cancer.”
Lisa MMcKenzie, Roxana Z.Witter, Lee S.Newman, John L.Adgate, Human health risk assessment of air emissions from development of
unconventional natural gas resources Science of The Total Environment,Volume 424, 1 May 2012, Pages 79-87 27 October, 2020
Gas-fired Recovery
Residents of Tara Queensland have reported similar symptoms including severe headaches,
nausea, vomiting, nose bleeds, rashes, eye and throat irritations and severe skin irritations.
Limited sampling of ambient air undertaken around the Tara estate near CSG activities have
detected VOCs, including ethanol, acetone, benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylbenzene,
dichlorodifluoromethane, 1,2,4-trimethylbenzene, naphthalene, phenylmaleic anhydride,
methyl ethyl ketone, phenol, butane, pentane, hexane. Toluene, a neurotoxin was found in the air
around a number of Tara homes and in the air above a resident’s water bore.
In the latter 33 the level (0.33ppm) was dismissed as below levels of concern, yet was well above the
‘Chronic Reference Exposure Limits’ used for long-term exposure by California, Massachusetts,
Michigan states in the USA. Lisa MMcKenzie et al

19. It is unthinkable that more fossil fuel projects would
be approved following the catastrophic summer fires.
[Narrabri Gas] is a definite risk as there are fairly
shallow pipelines. It’s quite possible that they could be
crushed and burst. It could create quite serious
problems and bear serious risk to workers, and of
course to volunteer firefighters.
It’s not a risk that I’d be prepared to put people into.
Greg Mullins, retired Fire Chief, to the IPC
“
”
Angela Macdonald-Smith and Elouise Fowler, 23 July, 2020
Image:viaFriendsoftheEarth

20. Case Study - The Narrabri Gas Project water risks
“The Narrabri Project is not worth the risk to aquifers” Dr John Williams, former head of CSIRO’s Land and
Water division, NSW Land & Environment Commissioner, and Emeritus Professor, ANU
The area provides recharge for Australia’s most important aquifer system – the Great
Artesian Basin and is close to the vitally important Namoi Alluvium.
The risks of groundwater and surface contamination and drawdown are real.
Associate Professor Matthew Currell, RMIT University Engineering Department
Stuart Khan, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of NSW,
said he was concerned about 840,000 tonnes of salt waste, nearly twice as much as
Santos had estimated, which could contaminate ground and surface water.
The gas wells would descend more than one kilometre below the surface.
“A formal uncertainty analysis wasn’t undertaken in the Environmental Impact Statement
because they didn’t have the data, they didn’t assess the uncertainty”
Dr Hayley pointed to CSIRO modelling “those faults could carry chemicals and gas into
clean water supplies.” “The CSIRO show at least considerable impact on groundwater,”
“The Queensland experience is that over 570 agricultural water bores will run dry (in just
one gas field) as a direct result of CSG..clear damage to water resources that is the lived
experience in Queensland”
840,000t
1km
570
“
”
Angela Macdonald-Smith and Elouise Fowler, 23 July, 2020
Gas-fired Recovery

21. I personally don’t think it is worth the risk,”
Dr Williams said. Not enough was known about
fractures and faults in rock formations
separating the deep coal seams, from which
gas would be extracted. There was a risk the
aquifers could be contaminated or run dry.
“I don’t think the current analysis is anywhere
sufficient
“
”
Sean Murphy, 8 August, 2020
Image:EnvironmentDefendoersOffice
Emeritus Prof John Williams, former head of CSIRO’s Land & Water Division

22. 7Are there alternatives to gas?
Electrification
BatteryStorage
“In eastern Australia, there are potentially 500,000to1,000,000
homes where residents are unaware that they can immediately
start to save hundreds of dollars per year on their heating bill
by using their existing reverse-cycle air conditioners (RCACs)
instead of gas.
This economic fuel-switching frees up gas for industry.”
“there is a clear business case for big batteries, and added that they were
starting to compete with gas peakers on commercial terms to firm up
supplies of wind and solar” AGL COO: Markus Brokhof
“Gas use in residential and commercial applications can largely be
substituted for cheaper electrical heating, in the form of air conditioners,
induction cooking and heat pumps for hot water. This would unfetter up to
190 petajoules (PJ) per annum and dwarf the contribution of at best 70PJ
from Narrabri.” IEEFA Submission to the Independent Planning Commission
Gas-fired Recovery
A review of current and future methane emissions from Australian unconventional oil and gas production, October2016, Melbourne EnergyInstitute

23. We heat our oldweatherboard house here in
Melbournewith 2 reverse cycle air conditioners
at a third the cost that we used to on ducted
gas heating.
Anybody who is still stuck using gas heating
for their house when they could be using a
reverse cycle air conditioner is losing money.
You want to heat the water and cool the air.
Heat pumps are perfect for that, they can
actually suck heat out of the air and put it in
the pool. It’s like magic, it’s almost free.
“
”Tim Forcey, Energy Researcher,interview, 30 October, 2020
Image: Reverse-cycle air conditioner, Renew

24. “the adoption of gas demand reduction measures, such as energy efficiency
and fuel switching entirely eliminates the forecast shortfall”
VictorianGasMarket–DemandSideMeasurestoAvoidForecastSupplyShortfall 23 March, 2020
gas alternatives
gas usage
Gas demand reduction - by sector and reduction measures, Northmore Gordon