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Q4 2015 Austin Office Market Research & Forecast Report
1. Citywide positive net absorption continues to
peak
Research &
Forecast Report
AUSTIN | OFFICE
Q4 2015
Hannah Tysor Senior Marketing & Research Coordinator | Houston & Austin
According to Wallethub’s list of “2016’s Best & Worst Cities to Find a
Job”, Austin ranks 3rd in the nation behind Plano, Texas and Overland
Park, Kansas. The strong numbers in this report prove that despite
low oil prices that are taking a toll on other Texas markets, Austin
continues to thrive.
Once again, overall positive net absorption in the Austin market has
reached the highest ever recorded. Tenants moving into new office
space during Q4 2015 amount to a positive net absorption of 902,046
square feet.
Five buildings totaling 676,904 square feet delivered in the fourth
quarter and 1,579,496 square feet of office space is currently under
construction. Projects that delivered in Q4 include Lamar Central, a
168,752 SF mixed-use development in the West Central submarket.
In the Northwest submarket, Quarry Oaks III delivered and is 100%
leased.
The citywide average rental rate increased by only 0.6% from
$30.52 to $30.71 over the quarter. Class A rental rates in Austin’s
CBD increased by 1.4% over the quarter to $44.36, a small increase
in comparison to the 7% increase that occurred in Q3. Suburban
submarkets also saw an increase in rental rates as the average Class
A suburban rental rate increased from $32.73 per square foot to
$33.16 per square foot over the quarter.
Austin’s unemployment rate of 3.3% is now well below the state
average of 4.5% and the national average of 4.8%. Job Growth in the
city is also remarkably higher than the state and national average with
a 3.9% annual increase in job growth.
Vacancy & Availability
Austin’s citywide vacancy rate fell 40 basis points from 11.7% to
11.3% between quarters, continuing its gradual decrease since
Q2 of 2009. Vacancy in the CBD remains lower than the average
at 6.8%, a decrease of 160 basis points since the end of the third
quarter. This drop in vacancy is the most significant drop in the
fourth quarter.
Summary Statistics
Austin Office Market Q4 2014 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Vacancy Rate 12.4% 11.7% 11.3%
Net Absorption
(Million Square Feet)
.388 .899 .902
New Construction
(Million Square Feet)
.532 .625 .805
Under Construction
(Million Square Feet)
3.129 1.996 1.579
Class A Vacancy Rate
CBD
Suburban
10.5%
13.7%
9.8%
13.8%
7.6%
13.4%
Asking Rents
Per Square Foot Per Year
Average $28.88 $30.52 $30.71
CBD Class A $41.06 $43.75 $44.36
Suburban Class A $30.64 $32.73 $33.16
Market Indicators
Relative to prior period
Annual
Change
Quarterly
Change
Quarterly
Forecast*
VACANCY
NET ABSORPTION
NEW CONSTRUCTION
UNDER CONSTRUCTION
*Projected
2. 2 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Overall suburban vacancy also continues to decrease although it remains
higher than the CBD at 12.4% vacancy in Q4. Major submarkets that saw a
significant decrease in vacancy over the quarter include Central, North/Domain,
Southwest, and Northwest.
Submarkets that experienced increases in vacancy in Q4 include Cedar Park,
Far Northwest, and the South submarket. The increase in vacancy in the Cedar
Park submarket is due primarily to the delivery of Paloma Ridge Buildings A
& B which created 212,400 SF of available office space in the Cedar Park
submarket. Both buildings were completely vacant upon delivery in December.
Absorption, New Supply and Vacancy
Absorption & Demand
Austin’s office market posted 902,046 SF of positive net absorption in Q4
2015, the highest positive net absorption ever recorded according to our data
service provider, CoStar. Approximately 327,720 square feet of that absorption
occurred in Class A office space in the Southwest submarket where Apple,
Inc. moved into 217,490 square feet at Capital Ridge. Class A space in the
Northwest submarket posted the second highest positive net absorption of
204,809 square feet in the fourth quarter. The CBD posted the third highest
gain of 148,599 square feet of Class A positive net absorption. Only the South
submarket saw negative net absorption over the quarter of 10,965 square feet.
Total positive net absorption for 2015 reached 2,874,695 square feet, well over
double the amount of positive net absorption in 2014.
Rental Rates
The citywide average rental rate increased slightly over the quarter from $30.52
per square foot to $30.71 per square foot. The highest rates across the Austin
market are in the CBD where Class A rental rates reached $44.36 per square foot
in Q4, a 1.4% increase over last quarter. Rates were also high in the South and
West Central submarkets, where Class A rates reached $39.37 per square foot and
$38.74 per square foot, respectively.
Citywide Class B rental rates rose slightly in the fourth quarter to $25.19 per
square foot from $24.92 per square foot.
Over the year, citywide rental rates rose 3.6%, a significant increase in
comparison to years past. In 2014, the citywide average rental rate rose only 0.8%
over the year.
Job Growth & Unemployment
(not seasonally adjusted)
UNEMPLOYMENT 11/14 11/15
AUSTIN 3.7% 3.3%
TEXAS 4.5% 4.5%
U.S. 5.5% 4.8%
JOB GROWTH
Annual
Change
# of Jobs
Added
AUSTIN 3.9% 36.1K
TEXAS 1.7% 204.8K
U.S. 1.9% 2.6M
CBD vs. Suburban
CLASS A OFFICE VACANCY
CLASS A OFFICE RENTS
3. 33 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Q4 2015 Top Office Lease Transactions
BUILDING NAME/ADDRESS SUBMARKET SF TENANT LEASE DATE
Parmer 3.2 Northeast 93,000 Natera Genetics Oct-15
Aspen Lake One Far Northwest 88,000 LDR Spine USA, Inc.2
Oct-15
4516 Seton Center Pky Northwest 62,193 BancVue, Ltd.1
Nov-15
Research Park V Northwest 51,624 Planview Oct-15
One Congress Plaza CBD 46,960 Main Street Hub Oct-15
3800 Quick Hill Rd. North/Domain 46,247 Protect America1
Oct-15
San Jacinto Center CBD 40,207 Outbound Engine Dec-15
823 Congress Ave. CBD 33,000 AllClear ID Dec-15
The Terrace 7 Southwest 25,082 BPL Plasma Dec-15
5th+Colorado CBD 19,087 Industrious Office4
Oct-15
Ben White 6 Southeast 18,990 Tokyo Electron1
Dec-15
1300 Guadalupe St. CBD 18,446 Projekt202 Oct-15
Frost Bank Tower CBD 14,000 Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman LLP Oct-15
5th+Colorado CBD 12,434 Sheri Hill4
Oct-15
Leasing Activity
Austin’s office leasing activity recorded 898,758 SF in Q4 2015. Major transactions this quarter included a new lease for Natera Genetics,
a renewal for LDR Spine, USA, and an expansion for Q2 Holdings, Inc.
1
Renewal
2
Expansion
3
Sublease
4
Pre-lease/proposed or under construction
Q4 2015 Significant Sales Transactions – (100,000 SF or greater)
BUILDING NAME SUBMARKET RBA (SF) YEAR BUILT BUYER SELLER SALE PRICE $/SF CLOSED
7700 W Parmer Ln (4
Properties)*
Far
Northwest
911,579 1999
Accesso
Partners, LLC
Spear Street Capital $272,250,000 $299 Dec-15
Amber Oaks Corporate
Center (10 Properties)*
Far
Northwest
667,999 1999-2007 Menlo Equities CBRE Global Investors Ltd. $116,000,000 $173 Dec-15
301 Congress Ave. CBD 418,338 1985
Prudential
Investment
Management, Inc.
Commonwealth Partners
Management Services LP
N/A N/A Dec-15
6800 Burleson Rd. Southeast 204,346 1986
Capital
Commercial
DivcoWest N/A N/A Dec-15
Sales Activity
Austin’s office investment sales activity included four sales transactions (including two portfolio sales) with an average sale price of $236
per SF.
Sources: CoStar and Real Capital Analytics
*Part of a portfolio
4. 4 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Austin Office Market Summary (CBD, Suburban, & Overall)
INVENTORY DIRECT VACANCY
SUBLEASE
VACANCY
VACANCY VACANCY RATE (%)
NET ABSORPTION
(SF)
RENTAL
RATE
CLASS
# OF
BLDGS.
TOTAL (SF) (SF)
RATE
(%)
(SF)
RATE
(%)
TOTAL
(SF)
Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q3-2015
AVG
($/SF)
CBD
A 26 6,741,601 471,319 7.0% 39,189 0.6% 510,508 7.6% 9.8% 148,599 141,732 $44.36
B 32 2,382,745 98,289 4.1% 2,670 0.1% 100,959 4.2% 3.8% -11,255 -20,590 $36.57
C 9 470,243 39,269 8.4% 0 0.0% 39,269 8.4% 9.9% 7,231 8,045 $27.55
Total 67 9,594,589 608,877 6.3% 41,859 0.4% 650,736 6.8% 8.3% 144,575 129,187 $41.84
SUBURBAN
A 170 19,840,831 2,322,588 11.7% 330,978 1.7% 2,653,566 13.4% 13.8% 784,266 394,343 $33.16
B 322 17,386,138 1,935,607 11.1% 234,575 1.3% 2,170,182 12.5% 12.4% -21,629 353,127 $24.44
C 57 3,025,382 180,904 6.0% 1,800 0.1% 182,704 6.0% 5.9% -5,166 20,415 $16.42
Total 549 40,252,351 4,439,099 11.0% 567,353 1.4% 5,006,452 12.4% 12.6% 757,471 767,885 $29.04
OVERALL
A 195 26,386,711 2,770,238 10.5% 370,167 1.4% 3,140,405 11.9% 12.8% 932,865 538,744 $35.04
B 354 19,768,883 2,033,896 10.3% 237,245 1.2% 2,271,141 11.5% 11.3% -32,884 332,537 $25.19
C 66 3,495,625 220,173 6.3% 1,800 0.1% 221,973 6.4% 6.4% 2,065 28,460 $18.35
Total 615 49,651,219 5,024,307 10.1% 609,212 1.2% 5,633,519 11.3% 11.7% 902,046 899,741 $30.71
INVENTORY
DIRECT
VACANCY
SUBLEASE
VACANCY
VACANCY VACANCY RATE (%) NET ABSORPTION (SF)
RENTAL
RATE
CLASS
# OF
BLDGS.
TOTAL (SF) (SF)
RATE
(%)
(SF)
RATE
(%)
TOTAL
(SF)
Q4-2015 Q3-2015 Q4-2015 Q3-2015
AVG
($/SF)
CEDAR PARK
A 4 444,674 223,357 50.2% 0 0.0% 223,357 50.2% 6.3% 3,766 0 $26.48
B 3 142,622 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 1,800 $27.20
Total 7 587,296 223,357 38.0% 0 0.0% 223,357 38.0% 3.9% 3,766 1,800 $26.49
CENTRAL
A 3 474,288 74,057 15.6% 0 0.0% 74,057 15.6% 17.2% 7,678 0 $34.01
B 35 1,932,024 180,656 9.4% 17,690 0.9% 198,346 10.3% 10.9% 12,890 27,922 $23.72
C 16 939,288 26,125 2.8% 0 0.0% 26,125 2.8% 2.9% 875 5,679 $16.51
Total 54 3,345,600 280,838 8.4% 17,690 0.5% 298,528 8.9% 9.6% 21,443 33,601 $24.93
EAST
A 2 104,821 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
B 13 1,980,452 451,945 22.8% 0 0.0% 451,945 22.8% 22.8% 292 2,802 $19.44
C 4 149,025 29,050 19.5% 0 0.0% 29,050 19.5% 19.5% 0 0 $19.98
Total 19 2,234,298 480,995 21.5% 0 0.0% 480,995 21.5% 21.5% 292 2,802 $19.47
FAR NORTHEAST
B 1 23,408 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
Total 1 23,408 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 -
FAR NORTHWEST
A 13 2,046,751 274,904 13.4% 51,094 2.5% 325,998 15.9% 14.6% 82,979 89,839 $28.72
B 8 327,418 26,191 8.0% 0 0.0% 26,191 8.0% 8.7% 2,163 -2,854 $21.53
C 1 21,964 2,600 11.8% 1,800 8.2% 4,400 20.0% 0.0% -4,400 0 $20.48
Total 22 2,396,133 303,695 12.7% 52,894 2.2% 356,589 14.9% 13.6% 80,742 86,985 $27.50
Austin Suburban Office Market Summary
6. 6 Austin Research & Forecast Report | Q4 2015 | Office | Colliers International
Office Development Pipeline
1.6 million square feet of office space was under construction during Q4 2015. Five buildings totaling 676,904 square feet delivered in Q4
including Lamar Central, a mixed-use development with 132,000 square feet of office space.
BUILDING NAME ADDRESS SUBMARKET SF
PRE-
LEASED
DEVELOPER
EST.
DELIVERY
NorthShore 110 San Antonio St CBD 23,592 100.0% Trammel Crow Co Jan-16
Research Park Plaza Bldg V 12301 Research Blvd Northwest 172,854 29.9% Cousins Properties
Incorporated
Feb-16
5th & Colorado 201 W 5th St CBD 179,846 26.8% Lincoln Property Company Mar-16
Domain 1 11801 Domain Blvd North/Domain 124,578 0.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Mar-16
Domain 5 2901 Esperanza Crossing North 74,804 0.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Mar-16
411 W Main St 411 W Main St Round Rock 26,563 0.0% 411 Partners, LLC Jun-16
2700 La Frontera Blvd 2700 La Frontera Blvd Round Rock 97,941 89.3% Jul-16
317 Grace Ln 317 Grace Ln Southwest 87,748 2.5% Equitable Commercial Realty Dec-16
Green Water Treament Plant 500 W 2nd St CBD 500,512 41.2% Trammel Crow Co Jan-17
Domain 8 11601 Alterra Parkway North/Domain 291,058 0.0% Endeavor Real Estate Group Jan-17
QUOTED GROSS RENTAL RATES FOR EXISTING TOP PERFORMING OFFICE BUILDINGS
BUILDING NAME ADDRESS SUBMARKET RBA (SF)
YEAR
BUILT
%
LEASED
AVAIL.
SF
RENT
($/SF)
OWNER
Frost Bank Tower 401 Congress Ave. CBD 535,078 2003 98.50% 7,944 $55.97 CalSTRS
One Congress Plaza 111 Congress Ave. CBD 518,385 1985 93.70% 119,441 $56.49 Parkway Properties, Inc
One American Center 600 Congress Ave. CBD 503,951 1984 97.40% 13,187 $48.91 CalSTRS
300 West Sixth 300 W. 6th Street CBD 454,225 2001 99.70% 8,502 $56.57 CalSTRS
301 Congress 301 Congress Ave. CBD 418,338 1986 88.60% 75,877 $52.46 National Office Partners, LP
100 Congress 100 Congress Ave. CBD 411,536 1987 97.70% 27,991 $55.52 Metlife, Inc.
7700 W Parmer Ln -
Bldg. B
7700 W Parmer Ln - Bldg. B Far Northwest 350,000 1999 90.60% 31,500 $35.20 Unknown
7700 W. Parmer Ln -
Bldg. C
7700 W. Parmer Ln. - Bldg.
C
Far Northwest 282,000 1999 91.80% 23,693 $35.33 Unknown
Two Barton Skyway 1601 S MoPac Southwest 195,639 2000 97.10% 5,639 $32.1 University Federal Credit
Union
Note: Avail. SF includes direct and sublet space as well as any future available space listed.
Source: CoStar Property