The document summarizes commercial real estate market trends in Austin, TX in Q3 2021. Key points include:
- Vacancy rates decreased slightly to 19.2% while net absorption was positive at 705K SF
- Strong demand driven by corporate expansions and relocations is fueling investment in Austin commercial real estate
- Average citywide lease rates increased slightly to $46.16/SF, with higher rates in prime locations
- Over 4.5M SF of new construction is underway to meet continuing strong demand in the market
Austin Office Market Sees Positive Absorption and Rising Rates in Q3 2021
1. 20Q3 21Q2 21Q3
New Supply 311,548 1,459,540 300,400
Net Absorption (1,206,075) 94,497 705,122
Overall Vacancy 15.5% 19.5% 19.2%
Under
Construction
2,293,494 7,760,620 4,589,300*
CBD Class A Asking
Lease Rates (NNN)
$54.00 $66.02 $66.12
Overall Asking
Lease Rates (NNN)
$37.45 $46.06 $46.16
Sale
Capital Ridge
Southwest | 216,511 SF
Buyer | Apple Inc.
Lease
East Lake at Tillery II
East | 96,000 SF
Skyworks
Lease
River South
South Central | 68,000 SF
Alert Media
Sale
Bouldin Creek
South central | 169,610 SF
Buyer | Divco West
Sale
Foundry II
East | 155,000 SF
Buyer | Tishman Speyer
YOY
FORECAST
YOY
YOY
FORECAST
YOY
FORECAST
FORECAST
Office
Austin,
TX
21Q3
* Lowered due to reclassifying the Apple project as user-owned product
Boots On the Ground
After a challenging year in 2020, and a roller coaster ride to this point in 2021, the future of the Austin market looks very bright.
Given the dozens of Fortune 100 companies that have set up regional and primary headquarters in the ATX, it has become
abundantly clear that Austin has cemented itself as a hub for “live, work and play.” Over the last quarter, we have seen some
of the highest demand for office space since pre-Covid levels; and all indications point to that acceleration continuing for the
foreseeable future. Austin has become arguably one of the top 3 most dynamic real estate markets in the country. Land is
trading at all-time records. Industrial supply is at one of its all-time lowest levels, specifically for larger (continued on next page)...
Unemployment Rate
Market Indicators
Historic Comparison
3.8%
Austin
Unemployment
Rate
1.483%
US 10 Year
Treasury Note
4.6%
US
Unemployment
Rate
Vacancy Rate
19.2%
Net Absorption
705K SF
Overall Class A Asking
Lease Rates (FSG)
$50.68/SF
Under
Construction
4.6M SF
Key Takeaways
• Vacancy rate decreased slightly in the third quarter
• Quarterly absorption of 689,622 SF marks another positive swing
since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic
• Continued corporate expansions/relocations have spurred
further domestic and international investment in Austin commer-
cial real estate
Recent Transactions
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18Q2
18Q2
18Q3
18Q4
18Q4
19Q1
19Q2
19Q2
19Q3
19Q4
19Q4
20Q1
20Q2
20Q2
20Q3
20Q4
20Q4
21Q1
21Q2
21Q3
Austin Texas US
2. Colliers | Austin | 21Q3 | Office Report
Office
Austin,
TX
21Q3
Sublease Environment
45%
1%
0%
3%
4%
3%
23%
2%
19%
CBD
Central & West Central
East
North/Domain
Northeast
Far Northwest
Northwest
South
Southwest
20Q3 21Q2 21Q3
CBD 394,195 911,991 745,866
Central & West Central 51,960 57,710 17,132
East 107,205 60,234 8,805
North/Domain 27,426 64,406 57,068
Northeast 119,636 105,886 74,130
Far Northwest 94,394 53,987 42,232
Northwest 404,236 492,082 376,815
South 30,631 29,877 21,599
Southwest 256,816 334,086 308,121
TOTAL 1,486,499 2,110,259 1,651,768
Boots on the Ground continued
The Market, at a Glance
Office tour activity generally improved in the third quarter; most notably the size of prospect requirements increased. We are now
seeing more tours with larger users that seem to be real requirements ready to commit to leases. We recently compiled a list that
included over 12 unique 100+ sf office users touring properties throughout the city. The length of desired lease term is still below the
historical average as many prospects look for shorter team deals in order to provide flexibility due to unknowns in the return to the
office. Construction pricing has started to increase due to lack of subs combined with higher demand, and construction timelines have
elongated due to a slowdown on permitting combined with supply chain challenges. We expect overall market conditions to improve
as the Q3 spike in Covid cases subsides and companies can once again start to think about a return to the office.
Future Forecast
Barring any major setbacks on a national level, or a resurgence of Covid, we feel the Austin buzz will continue for the foreseeable
future. Companies that have been slowly having conversations with Landlords for the past twelve months are quickly turning
into more normalized tours, negotiations, and executed leases. The sheer number of significant requirements considering new
locations and expansion in Austin are such that if only a reasonable portion of those deals make, it will continue to strengthen
the market. We expect office rates to remain mostly flat overall with continued increases in prime/in-demand locations, and we
expect for pricing on capital markets (building sales) to remain high due to lack of quality product on the market and flight to the
asset class.
...blocks; and new construction is being leased at a pace previously unseen. Texas is open for business, and we don’t see that
changing anytime soon.
3. Colliers | Austin | 21Q3 | Office Report
Office
Austin,
TX
21Q3
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
CBD Citywide Total Vacancy
Notable Q3 2021 Completions
(1,500,000)
(1,000,000)
(500,000)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021
Deliveries Net Absorption
300 Colorado
368,798 | CBD
Cousins Properties
405 Colorado
204,108 | CBD
Brandywine Realty Trust
Supply & Absorption
The Austin economy continues its upward swing, as less
subleases hit the market and pent-up demand has driven
more significant executed leases. New deliveries in Q3
were 300,402 SF. Absorption of 689,622 SF was recorded
in 21’Q3, marking the third quarter with positive levels; an
extreme uptick in hires by high-tech tenants during Covid,
coupled with a continued robust relocation & expansion
trend, will likely stimulate a continued upwards trend in
absorption. These trends are creating some cautiously
optimistic views by developers, who are scheduled to
complete 4,450,101 SF of new construction over the next
few years.
Direct Lease Rates
The 21’Q3 average citywide asking rate of $46.16/SF
slightly exceeds the previous quarter’s rate of $46.06/SF,
a bump that continues to be attributed to an abundance
of recently completed Class-A office space in conjunction
with growing operating expenses. With more and more
high-quality product hitting the market, combined with a
continuation of increasing demand by occupiers, it’s more
likely that rates continue to trend higher.
4. Colliers | Austin | 21Q3 | Office Report
Office
Austin,
TX
21Q3
Upcoming Projects
Citywide Construction
43%
25%
27%
2% 3%
East
South
Domain
Round
Rock
Northwest
Q3 2021 Expected Deliveries
Domain Tower II
HPI
320,500 SF | Domain
Q4 2021 Delivery
0% Leased
RiverSouth
Stream Realty Partners
350,661 SF | South
Q4 2021 Delivery
41% Leased
Eastbound
Lincoln Property Group
233,577 SF | East
Q4 2021 Delivery
0% Leased
Centro South
Riverside Resources
164,155 SF |East
Q4 2021 Delivery
100% Leased
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Q4
2021
2022
2023
Leased Expected Deliveries