Presidential Elections
SUBTITLE
The Process
2 parts:
▶ Secure the party nomination
▶ Win majority of electoral votes
Incumbents have an advantage
▶ About 80% reelection rate
▶ Well-known
▶ “bully pulpit”
▶ Money and staff
Invisible
Primary
“testing the waters”
• Start raising
money
• Get
endorsements
• Visit swing states
• Earn title of
“frontrunner”
Securing the Party Nomination
Primary Elections
▶ Closed primary—voters
must declare party
affiliation
▶ Open primary—voters
choose which party’s
primary to vote in
▶ Blanket primary—can
cast ballots for multiple
parties (rare)
Caucuses
▶ Party members meet in
small groups to hear
about the candidates
▶ Then cast votes publically
▶ Inconvenient for voters
▶ 13 states
• voting for delegates to attend the national convention
• Advising delegates who to nominate at the convention
It’s good to win early
Iowa caucus
▶ First test of a candidate’s strength
New Hampshire primary
▶ Traditionally the first primary
If you win early, you get media attention, money,
momentum
National Party
Conventions
Where the parties officially
choose their candidate &
set the platform
Usually, we know who the
candidate will be from the
results of the primaries and
caucuses
Also choose the VP
candidate
How does it work?
Balloting for the nomination:
▶ Roll call of state’s delegates
▶ Announce how many delegates your state is giving
each candidate
▶ You have to get a certain percentage to become the
nominee
▶ In 2012:
▶ Dems 2383/4765
▶ Repubs 1237/2472
▶ Usually a formality now
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KTIYgo5k3c
52:38
52:38
So I’m a delegate to the convention. Do I have to
vote for the winner of my state’s primary/caucus?
Depends on the state you are from
▶ Some states allow delegates to be independent
▶ Some states use “pledged delegates”
▶ Some states give all their delegates to the
winner of the primary/caucus
▶ Some states use a proportional system
Superdelegates
Democratic party leaders
and elected officials who
automatically attend the
convention as voting
delegates
Not pledged to a
candidate
In 2016, there were over
700 superdelgates at the
DNC convention
For 2020, they have been
scaled back
Campaigning for the General Election
▶ Try to sustain momentum from conventions
▶ Post-convention “bounce” in the polls
▶ Raise more money
▶ Widen your appeal to moderate voters
▶ Debates
▶ Secure endorsements
▶ Travel to swing states
222000 Election and reforms (11 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3os_Vw1Eoo
2000 Election (42 min)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcz6NSyxrfQ

Presidential elections

  • 1.
  • 2.
    The Process 2 parts: ▶Secure the party nomination ▶ Win majority of electoral votes Incumbents have an advantage ▶ About 80% reelection rate ▶ Well-known ▶ “bully pulpit” ▶ Money and staff
  • 3.
    Invisible Primary “testing the waters” •Start raising money • Get endorsements • Visit swing states • Earn title of “frontrunner”
  • 4.
    Securing the PartyNomination Primary Elections ▶ Closed primary—voters must declare party affiliation ▶ Open primary—voters choose which party’s primary to vote in ▶ Blanket primary—can cast ballots for multiple parties (rare) Caucuses ▶ Party members meet in small groups to hear about the candidates ▶ Then cast votes publically ▶ Inconvenient for voters ▶ 13 states • voting for delegates to attend the national convention • Advising delegates who to nominate at the convention
  • 5.
    It’s good towin early Iowa caucus ▶ First test of a candidate’s strength New Hampshire primary ▶ Traditionally the first primary If you win early, you get media attention, money, momentum
  • 6.
    National Party Conventions Where theparties officially choose their candidate & set the platform Usually, we know who the candidate will be from the results of the primaries and caucuses Also choose the VP candidate
  • 7.
    How does itwork? Balloting for the nomination: ▶ Roll call of state’s delegates ▶ Announce how many delegates your state is giving each candidate ▶ You have to get a certain percentage to become the nominee ▶ In 2012: ▶ Dems 2383/4765 ▶ Repubs 1237/2472 ▶ Usually a formality now http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6KTIYgo5k3c 52:38 52:38
  • 8.
    So I’m adelegate to the convention. Do I have to vote for the winner of my state’s primary/caucus? Depends on the state you are from ▶ Some states allow delegates to be independent ▶ Some states use “pledged delegates” ▶ Some states give all their delegates to the winner of the primary/caucus ▶ Some states use a proportional system
  • 9.
    Superdelegates Democratic party leaders andelected officials who automatically attend the convention as voting delegates Not pledged to a candidate In 2016, there were over 700 superdelgates at the DNC convention For 2020, they have been scaled back
  • 10.
    Campaigning for theGeneral Election ▶ Try to sustain momentum from conventions ▶ Post-convention “bounce” in the polls ▶ Raise more money ▶ Widen your appeal to moderate voters ▶ Debates ▶ Secure endorsements ▶ Travel to swing states
  • 11.
    222000 Election andreforms (11 min) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3os_Vw1Eoo 2000 Election (42 min) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qcz6NSyxrfQ